Crisis, Rate Cuts, Bailout, Stimulus
Plan impact on
Financial Sector SPDR XLF holding Component stocks daily price performance ,
risks Early Warning
( Daily Blogs and Workshops )
( Daily Blogs and Workshops )
Warren Huang OSA Global Strategic Management
Website :www.osawh.com / www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 email: email@example.com
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Banking finance, housing performance
XLF major holding companies
continued SEC restriction on
naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I
predicted on this blog that we are half way to housing,
stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing,
financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance XLF share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index
fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 10600 this morning plunged
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 before labor day due to rebate check support d summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog Aug 3, 2008 3:26AM
May 2008 Schiller housing price index
plunge 16 %, decline accelerate continue confirm our housing price slump
model predicted on Wall Street Journal market beat, development blog http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_072943.pdf
This paper demonstrated Huang’s 30 years pioneering proactive, structural equities, housing asset prices bubbles bursts spread into credit, financial crisis Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), applications to US national and regional sub-prime and prime mortgage default crisis, credit crunch early warning
Thousands simulators have been developed, implemented for strategic investment, markets, credit risks simulation integration early warning for 30 million China, US Taiwan 15 cities 30 million institutional, private investors, global finance, capital market QFII, QDII, real estate, insurance, credit rating agencies, multinational CEO, seniors executives, lectures, workshops and 24 global central bank governors, banking, financial crisis, Hedging risks management conferences.
These artificial intelligence neural net based expert systems integrated macro financial, industrial econometrics OSA tracking, forecast years, months ahead of the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global banking, financial and housing ,asset bubble burst , credit default crisis, financial crisis..
These dynamic deterministic OSA tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macroeconomic inflation, GDP, daily Fed fund rates, mortgage interest rate, currency, commodities, housing mortgage demand, prices impact on credit rating, prepayment, defaults, systemic risks, recovery modeling, financial futures, credit derivatives, CRE, CDO, ABS, MABS assets class securitization pricing, credit and cash flow performance, hedging risks early warnings, integrating monetary policy impact on asset market prices risks into credit risk, supporting financial, systems investment，macro-economic systemic risks , Basel II credit, markets , operational risks control.
Huang directed Zhang to extend these OSA simulators to Nobel laureate R. Engle’s Spline GARCH and co-integrate into Granger causes and casualty analysis. mortgage default and housing prices and ABS pooled asset credit and performances are related to deterministic exponential spline, combination of macro , monetary economic and time series dynamics . These unconditional mortgage default probability is estimated for US , China, Asian ( China, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) UK national, regional housing prices bubbles, and mortgage default probability , credit crunch over recent housing boom and bust cycle
These analysis also supporting Huang’s 30 years OSA tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of mortgage default credit crunch in which mortgage default risks are caused by 40 year low mortgage rate resulted speculative purchase and financing created soaring housing prices bubbles and banking, finance stock prices wealth gain bubble, the default rate soared as mortgage rate rebound from 5.7 % to 6.7 % ,and jobless rate soared from 4.4 % to 5.7 % while housing prices peaking out，down 20 % increased sub-prime home buyer prepayment and monthly interest payment cost and soaring jobless rate.
Despite monetary policy is not direct cause of default due to central bank only focus on underestimated core inflation and unemployment (exclude food, energy cost ), ignoring housing and equities, commodities prices bubbles. Excessive rate, tax cuts lead to over spending in personal debt and business spending created trillions dollar housing and stock s market wealth gain , excessive liquidity speculative bubble asset bubbles growth to big for any central bank monetary policy to handle., lead to final bubble burst.
This model shown by Dr. Warren Huang last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market Beat and Real Estate Development blog that Current US regional housing price slump will continue through 2008 till 2009 plunge 30- 50 % Schiller 20 cities national housing price index plunge 30 % ( down 16 % in May 2008) drag economy into 2009 inflationary recession by mounting job cuts, soaring inflation and foreclosure default, and plunging US and global stock prices bear market 30- 50 % correction , XLF holding component investment, banks, insurance, financial services widening loss and writedown continue through early 2009 with stocks 50- 70 % correction as credit , financial crisis continue through early 2009, despite Fed monetary easing, rate cuts
Default rate soared to 10 % in northern California with 6.9 % jobless rate, while national default at 5.2 % with 5.7 % jobless rate.. .
These models improve current probabilistic, statistical CAPM asset pricing and Monte Carlo default simulation, oversimplified macroeconomic, mortgage bond spread, credit rating and hedge fund, real estate asset prices in structural finance CRE, MABS, CDO applications. tracking, forecast month ahead global monetary, policy, foreclosure impact on national and regional housing prices avoided trillion dollars loss due to betting on the wrong side of credit derivatives, speculation over the business, economic news resulted past , current mortgages loan default and stock market crash.
millions global government, banking, finance, enterprises CEO, executives and
academics visited Huang’s www.osawh.com website tracking forecasts last 10 years daily
Keyword : Housing ,Equities bubbles, INVESTMENT BANK PERFORMANCE Operations Simulations Analysis, proactive structural CAPM credit risk, market risks, currency interest rates derivatives pricing, risks hedging, securitization Basel II risk
presented to Global financial engineering risk management conference ,
presented to International Financial Engineering Risk
Management Conference, June 12, 2007, Peking University China, with
Noble prize 2003 Economic winner, 2003, give keynote speech on Spline GARCH
applications and to Asset Based
Securitization Conference, Malaysia Central bank conference, Sept. 30, 2002
with Standard & Poors managing director give keynote
Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2008 drag economy into 2009 double dip inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000- 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % testing 2000-2200 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, commodity prices doubled, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550- 2750 after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund ( US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial, up 110 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 40 %. , and recommended ETF: US natural gas up 100 % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 147. and Oppenheimer Commodities up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled
Comment to Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 24 2008 11:26AM ; We are half way to housing and stock market correction
2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary recession, stock bear market correction.
Dr. Warren Huang was the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing,2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal 1x0/x0 long-short hedging, multi-class asset allocation strategy 2008
Proactive Structural dynamic analysis of US Sub-prime crisis
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
The Long- short of FNM, FRE and banking , finance stocks
Comment by Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 15 2008 at 5:51 pm
Comment by Wall Street Journal Market Beat- June 19, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Comment by - May 15, 2008 at 2:03 pm on How to identify and control asset bubble on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog
Trillion dollar recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang
click here for2008 US
inflation, recession out look and asset prices, asset allocation
click here for 2008 housing slump impact on economic recession and equities, commodities asset prices, allocation strategy forecast
Housing Default , credit crisis on Wall Street Real
Time Economic, Market beat daily blogs
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 29, 2007
freeze the mortgage rate will work only if the house price and stock price both going up or freezed too.
Default rate will go up with housing and stock price definitely to plunge till next summer. Fed rate cuts and freeze will not be able to cut housing , stock price enough to reduce mortgage default for the sub-prime and jumbo loan. detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco in-house Strategic Housing Investment, default risks early warning workshops firstname.lastname@example.org
5 day optimal long-short strategy for 130/30 ETF equities hedge fund asset allocation and portfolio selections
Full day China/ Asian ( India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control , Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices forecast workshops
Full day BRIC ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices forecast workshops
Full day Taiwan inflation control, country risks, housing, stocks prices bubble burst, default crisis early warning workshop
5 Day BRIC ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices forecast workshops
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning , National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day Taiwan housing bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops