Global Strategic Management     OSA forecasts and mission control helps millions global corporate, private  wealth
    OSA                  managers,  investors achieve sustainable profit growth even in financial crisis 
    www.osawh.com                        ¤¤¤å
Welcome to the World of Global Wealth Effect  Housing, Stocks Assets  Prices Bubble Early Warning, Real Time Strategic Structural Asset Pricing and Allocation for  Wealth Management , Private Banking Value Investing Risks Hedging OSA   full day workshops
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang CV , extend his  Ph.D Thesis Moon landing guidance and control methodology
to integrating Proactive Structural Dynamic macro economic control into industrial sectors microeconomic
supply, demand price mechanism and  daily financial markets asset prices for  China, Taiwan, Asian, US 30 million banking, finance,fund and wealth managers, Institutional and HWN  investors business  strategic decisions Operations  Simulation Analysis (OSA) , supported by  goal , mission, performance tracking, optimization, achieving sustainable profit, fighting last 20 years uncertain, unknown  futures
Thousands decision simulators integrating monetary, economic policy into daily capital market prices,
 business performance, capitalize years, months ahead of last 20 year opportunities and crisis , change
personal life, change business and world decision making  making personal, corporate dreams come true 

Structural Dynamics Simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Real time Global Equities, Currency, fixed income, Real Estate Properties , metal, commodity investment Asset Allocation transactions, Prices Bubble, Wealth Effect Crisis, Recovery, Risks     =====================================================================================                                                                                      
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's Nobel prize dream: Two master hands controlling global economic boom , bust, daily money, bond markets interest rates,  capital markets currency, commodity, financial futures, equities, properties derivatives prices  real time transaction , forecasts , associated  asset prices and wealth effect bubbles supporting China, US, Taiwan, Asian 30 million global  private, institutional  investors  daily strategic private banking, wealth management daily decisions
Housing Prices Bubbles Simulation  Stock Prices Bubble Simulation China Sovereign Wealth Fund Strategy  China mutual Fund Asset Allocation 
China Shanghai-Shenzhen A Shares     Forex futures      China commodities futures markets
When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what he has been lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985  
OSA two mater hands controlling global economy, daily capital market prices pioneer Dr. Warren Huang CVphoto   accurately predicted by thousands structural dynamic simulators Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high,  in March 2004, inflation up 5 %, China CPI up 4.4 % job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 China credit tightening,  Fed June 0.25 % rate hike US and global corporate profit squeeze, stock prices, mutual fund peaking out in March, 2004. 
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang's   warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
and again  to Euro-events Singapore  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops warning  US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  ousing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy. 
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks  rebound to new high in the third quarter 2004     
 He  has 30 years development, implementation of two master hands by hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  model simulators, the only one available in  global QFII/QDII mutual fund managers global capital market asset prices simulation/forecasts for optimal dynamic asset allocation strategy , predicted 3 month ahead the emerging bull, bear market trend avoided last 20 years trillion dollar wealth loss, for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Taiwan, China  Asian state oil companies headquarters corporate finance and OPEC petroleum ministers strategic investment supply chain management and strategic  investment, supply chain , risk management consulting to monetary policy impact on 30 million  Taiwan, China , US TV, radio investors, fund managers, global banking, finance money, capital, insurance, markets wealth management investment strategy, asset, wealth effect  early warning,  risk management.( 20 years global central banks monetary policy tracking, forecast record )for strategic wealth management to Euro-events  1000  investment bankers, wealth managers  in Singapore Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China finance, capital markets conferences Shanghai, Nov 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003 , accurately
 He has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors, financial management, finance, capital market, global wealth management, hedging fund risk management econometric conferences on "Simulation of Global equities , properties prices wealth effect asset  bubble Crisis, Recovery, early warning for wealth management Risk management"  since 1998-and warned May 15 , 1999 on China Peoples Banks central banks governors  conference and Nov 1999 on  www.sina.com  USA  and on this website high tech bubble burst for 70-90 % plunge and warned Singapore supply chain for global oils and China Peoples bank Beijin executives on China A stocks overheated for 40 % correction due to  US recession, global stock plunged 50 %. He  offered thousands TV, radio, newspapers strategic wealth management  lectures to US, China, Taiwan 30 million investors,  VIP traders, asset, wealth managers  and thousands workshops to thousands US, Asian, European banking, securities, insurance, state, private enterprises companies CEO, executives workshops since 1985. He warned  at Peking University, Beijin global finance conference  on  global capital market, asset prices  bubble wealth effect, avoided 7 trillion dollar loss in US and global stock market  simulation, risk management and full day workshop May 27-29, Beijin , Sept. 30, 2002, Kuala Lumpur accurately predict US and global stocks, mutual fund overheat for 30-50 % correction , ABS downgrade.  
His website www.osawh.com visited by  million global government finance, education, central banks, banking, finance, insurance, medical, corporate executives from 70 countries,, for  wealth effect asset  bubble early warning, strategic wealth management since 1998.
His Strategic Wealth Management Simulation Workshops  provide the what, why and how of global strategic management, providing  total solution in achieving  personal academics, career, financial, health goal for long happy, healthy, wealthy colorful life, make you and your family  dream come true

USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China  Hong Kong    Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  model simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented OSA teams outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs
Goal and Mission, performance oriented  workshops tailored to your life span needs, 
Choose your own subjects  for  each half day session

 Real Time Dynamic simulation, providing forecasts three month ahead Global central banks  Monetary, economic, fiscal  Policy Impact on  daily interest rates, currency, housing real estate properties, building material, supply, demand, prices, corporate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets, avoided global  trillion dollar wealth loss , provide  the causes, onset, spread, recovery of  energy crisis, Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech  prices bubble bursts,  recession, recovery  impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial systems stability  with applications to global banking and finance , corporate  pre/post merger integration performance improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks markets, banking and insurance, real estate, construction  companies
 
Feedback   Annual Memberships Strategic Out-Sourcing Center

 ======Special  Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops  Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Thousands structural dynamic OSA  futures, option prices simulators tracking  forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all  crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com ================================================================================================================    Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the most reliable  global central banks monetary policy, daily  open market operations impact on stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index
 E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate   
Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis
Monetary Policy, Oil Prices Impact on Global Financial, Energy Crisis, Recovery, Risk Control
The author has spend half of his time in Taiwan, ASEAN, Asia( 1980- 1996) and China, Hong Kong(1994-1998 with Ji in China), and US(1970-2002), European 9 1984-2003) in developing, implementing dynamics Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of global central banks monetary, economic policy, oil prices impact on daily EURO, Asian, US, global macro economy, daily financial markets normal, crisis , real estate, high-tech  bubble burst  wealth effect management dynamics during 1980 and 2003.
A: Root Causes of EURO, Asian and Global Economic, stocks, real estate  wealth management effect bubble  Boom and Bust, Financial Markets Crisis, Risks Simulation :
These real time simulation systems tracking successfully the root causes of all global economic bubble boom and bust, financial, banking ,energy crisis and associated risks came from excessive government fiscal, central banks monetary policy and global players hot money speculation resulted soaring properties, stocks prices, labor costs and associated asset bubble, wealth effect led to soaring consumer, business demand, rising oils and commodity prices, imports costs, declining export, shrinking trade surplus or expanding trade, current account deficit and overpriced currency and properties, equities prices. And eventual markets crash and crisis.
B. Simulation of the Onset of EURO, Asia, Global Currency Crisis wealth management effect bubble :-Instantaneous releasing overpriced stress
These simulators tracking the real causes and the onset of the 1980, 1987, 1990 US recession, stock market crash,  1992 European, 1994, China, 1995, Mexico, 1997 Thailand, 1998 Korea and Indonesia , Russia, Brazil currency, financial crisis at moment widening trade deficit (approaching one billion monthly) and current account deficits lead to overpriced currency and the onset of crisis:- currencies plunge to release it's overvalued stress, returned to new rational equilibrium. UK and Sweden, Italy suffered currency plunge 1992, due to widening trade deficit . while Thailand, central bank float the Bhat (has been fixed at 25 for 4 years), in July 1997, it plunge to 50, S. Korea in Nov, Won plunge to 2100, and Sept, Russia float the ruble, and 1999 March, Brazil float it's Real all at the wrong time ( at one billion US dollar monthly trade deficit and current account deficit,) the currency take the plunge as shown in the simulation charts in the conference), and Singapore dollar, Taiwan NT dollar dropped 30 % reflecting shrinking trade surplus and turning into trade deficit. US dollar plunge to 102 Yen from 147 at the time Greenspan announce interest rate cuts in winter 1998, as it's trade deficit soared to 26 billion due to wealth effect resulted soaring stock prices, import demand and tripled oil prices.

C. Simulation of The Onset of Global Stock Markets wealth management effect bubble Crash Crisis Dynamics:- releasing overpriced stress
These global stock markets dynamic simulators tracking instantaneous markets reacting to rising interests rates, credit tightening ( to fight inflation and stabilize the currency, created credit crunch. The currency and stock markets crashed to it's rational level, to release it's overpriced stress to new equilibrium resulted trillion dollars loses . Global financial market analysts have short memory on the interest rate hike impact on stock prices despite interest rate hikes lead to Asian crisis which Thailand raised interest rate to 25 % to stabilized Bhat at 50, took the Bangkok SET index plunge 70 % from 1000 to 250, Hong Kong raised it's short term interest rate to 19 % to defend it's HK dollars stock to US dollar, took the Henseng index plunge 60 %(from 12500 to 6200),Singapore raised interest rate to 12 % to stabilize the currency, Singapore Strait Times drop 60 %, Taiwan Index down 48 % . US Dow Plunged from 11300 to 9000 , Nasdaq from 5100 to 1800 this year and EURO stocks retreat 20 % reacting to US Fed and ECB interest rate hikes to cool-off the overheated US, EURO stocks bubble in internet and biotech and housing, labor markets due to wealth effect created excessive consumer, business demand. Similar crisis onset in 1987 US Dow Jones, 1990 Japan cut money supply from 13 % to 5 % to cooloff the bubble economy due to soaring stocks, housing markets, took Nikkei plunge 38000 to 20000, Taiwan raise interest from 6 % to 14 % took stock plunge form 12400 to 2400 and in 1992 European currency, crisis took stock plunge 40 %, 1994 China runaway inflation caused by 100 % currency depreciation, Shanghai A index plunged from 1500 to 333, reacting to doubled interest rates hike and Mexico crisis peso and stock market plunge 50 % Brazil index plunged from 8500 to 5400 reacting interest rate hike from 40 % to 70 %
D. Simulation of the Spread and capital out flow, banking default of EURO, Asian and Global Currency Crisis:
Thousands expert systems based simulators tracking, simulating the causes and spread of the past major global financial market currency crisis, FDI capital In/outflow, banking default and risks in the last 20 years are due to global central banks and financial markets decision makers. The spread of global financial crisis and default risks are caused through excessive central banks money supply followed by global players capital inflow speculating the overheated financial markets and outflow created market plunge resulted nonperformance loan and credit default(simulation results shown in the conference demonstrated the spread of UK, EURO currency crisis in 1992, Thailand currency plunge spread into ASEAN country, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S Korea, Russia default resulted LTCM into US and EURO , Brazil and Japan and this year s trillion dollars market loses in US, Taiwan, Korea are of poor investment strategy in US properties, stocks and Asian stocks and manufacturing industries caught in excessive money supply and global short term capital (hot money) inflow resulted overheated bubble economy (skyrocketing properties, stock prices and labor costs, declining export, widening trade, current deficit,(with one billion trade deficit) Indonesia, Russia were complicated by internal political turmoil, resulted global player pulling capital outflow resulted currency, stocks, properties prices plunge .

E. Simulation of Global Monetary, Economic Policy, oil prices Impact on Post Recovery of Asian and Global Financial Markets Crisis wealth management effect bubble :
These systems tracking, simulate the IMF rescue plan progress results and the recovery of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, Brazil and LTCM betting on the wrong of interest rates(US T-Bond and Fed fund rates) and bond yield spreads. And predicted US Fed three interest rate cuts lead to fast US and Asian stock market rebound and economic recovery:, reduce the interest rate spread ,took the pressure off Asian currency , dollar tumbled from 147 to 111 While most ASEAN and Asian troubled country benefited by high interest rate, falling commodities prices, reduced domestic demand, imports, cheap currency lead to soaring export and trade surplus(S. Korea has 40 billion ) and soaring export growth, are able to cut interest rates to the pre crisis level., and maintain stable currency, lead to stock markets more than tripled S. Korea already lead the recovery enjoy 11 % GNP Japan has 9 % GNP growth, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore return to 10 % growth., China back to 8.1 % Taiwan back to 7 % growth getting out of recession and deflation ..
These systems predicted on May 1999 Macao's central banks policy conference the first US interest rate hike to fight domestic inflation due to soaring oils prices, and demand, 5 other interest rate hikes in the author's 16 int'l conferences later (ref. 1-18)
These systems accurately predicted US and EURO 1999 last quarter excessive money supply for Y2K resulted soaring global stocks and housing markets(asset bubble), resulted wealth effect led to runaway consumer, business spending debt resulted labor shortage forced Greenspan took series interest rate hikes in 2000 to cool-off the stocks, housing markets, reduce consumer, business demand. These simulators accurately predicted in early 1999 that global financial markets analysts overoptimistic over second half 2000 and 2001 earning outlook Dow 15 % plunge, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand follow Nasdaq plunge 60 %, Dow plunged into 9100 bear market and US NAPM index plunge to 41.7 recession low resulted Greenspan 0.5 % rate cut with global high fliers internet, biotech IPO stocks plunge 50 % to 95 % will drag Asian stocks into 50 %, EURO stocks into 20 % correction .
Goal Mission, Performance oriented multidisciplinary wealth management effect bubble   Risk Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic and execution teams for risk management and restructuring, reengineering
Hundreds risks OSA teams have been implemented in Taiwan, China, US: ASEAN by the author , Integrating daily central banks monetary operation into banking, financial markets debt restructuring, pre and post merger integration performance improvement, transparency, supervision, Basal, Prudential Regulations tracking and prevent various financial systemic risk related nonperformance loan and credit defaults and government, banking, financial markets, corporate reform, reengineering , management, technological innovation to improve global competitiveness
On the job training workshops and Academic University Teaching and Research: The author has offered these methodology and systematic analysis to thousands risk management workshops in China, and Taiwan 14 major cities nationwide TV, radio program lectures to 30 million government, banking, finance executives, managers, investors and trained over 1000 chemical engineering, economics, global strategic management operations research senior and graduates teaching and research program`.
Pre and post crisis recovery Simulation results of EURO, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan , US inflation, GNP, interest rates, FDI capital flow, bank defaults rate, properties prices, Currency, stock, bond index, profit margin and corporate stock prices simulation will be demonstrated in the conference
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Money, Currency, Stocks and Derivatives Markets Prices Risks simulation, control
Global central bankers have been facing daily challenges, risks from the macro economic growth ,financial market prices stability in the trillion dollar Asian, Russia, Brazil currency crisis and the mature financial markets turbulence like 1998 summer 4 billion dollar LTCM failure betting on the wrong side of interest rate, bond spread and global stock markets trillion dollars loses due to ignoring EURO, US interest hikes impact on global slowdown, corporate earning decline, stock prices plunge 50- 90 % and global credit crunch in 70 trillion dollar financial derivatives markets.
The global central bankers are playing dual role in provide prudent monetary policy to achieving nations price and growth stability and monitoring it’s impact on the economics and daily financial market dynamics ( normal and crisis discontinuous) responses and supervising the banking industry providing prudent credit decisions to support the economic growth and healthy financial markets trading process.
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economics ,Banking, Financial Crisis, Systems Risks Simulation:
Global Housing, real estate Properties, building material  Prices, Bubble simulation, risk management
Housing Properties , building materials demand, prices bubble has been related to wealth effect from stock markets capital gain, money supply growth and interest rates
US housing prices bubble wealth management  Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1994, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 50 % in 2000 with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These will repeat  bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %, trillion dollar saving and loan defaults.
However Fed 6  rate hike led to new economy bubbe  burst in early  2000 and 2001 recession(accurtely predicted by Dr. Huang on www.osawh.com/ www.sina.com ), Nasdaq plunged 80 %, Dow loss 30 %, resulted 7.5 trillion wealth effect loss drag US house prices plunge 20 %in silicon valley. However, 13 rate cuts to 1.0 % and trillion dollar tax cuts led to 6 months US stock rally and wealth gain support the housing markets resulted prices rebound 10 % in 2001 and 7 % 2002, soaring building materials, and oil prices.
Fortunately, poor business spending, high unemployment and interest rebound 1 % already cut refinance loan by 70 %, will drag the housing prices, and building material costs. speculation on second half 2003 recovery already led mortgage up 1 % in July and refinancing demand down 70 % ( index ) from 9000 to 2400 and loan demand down 5 %  lead to housing bubble burst.
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. and soaring building material housing properties prices in 1990.  The housing  bubble burst with prices plunged 70 % since 1991 till 2001 as Nikkei plunged to 9000 last year resulted trillion dollar banking nonperformance loan.   Despite  benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500  in 2000 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 8000 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply   Japan declining consumer spending and GDP just return 3.9 % growth second quarter 2003 at  5.2 % high unemployment is not sustainable.
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980’s as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound from 13000 to 23000 in 2000,. However it down 20 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 8000 in 2003,  resulted recent Nikkei rebound to 11000 help little on housing demand and prices, additional loan default, simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implement  these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the former  Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of 3.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994’s peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
US recession in 2001 drag China stock for 40 % correction as predicted by Dr. huang to China Peoples Bank staff in Beijin July 2001 ( Shanghai A plunged from 2200 to 1450 in late 2002 
China Housing prices wealth management bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since in July 2001 and follow US Dow Jones, Nikkei, Henseng plugend below 9000, Shanghai index down 40 % to 1350 drag housing prices down 10- 20 % in Beijin and 5-10 % nationwide due to loss of trillion yuan wealth effect. However, the 30 % increase in export and foreign capital inflow in 2003, lead to excessive monetary growth of 20 % and bank loan soared  23 %   pushed Beijin housing prices up 20 % Shanghai up 10 % again in 2002-2003 ( building materail all follow global commodities prices up 20 % lead to China Peoples Bank announced raise bank reserve requirement from 6 to 7 % to cut 150 billion Yuan from housing, auto consumer loan to cool off  housing wealth management bubbles, auto, banking, housing stock already down 30- 50 % led Shanghai A testing new lows.
However, China uneven overheated coastal housing market pushed Beijin and Shanghai housing prices around 4000 Yuan per square meter vs. the rural area 780 which suffered by high unemployment and low income. Government is on all out effort to improve the rural  low income and housing problem ( economic housing plan for low and medium income).

Hong Kong  Housing  prices wealth management  bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Hong Kong housing prices  doubled in 1997  money supply growth soared form 8  % to  24 %, It plunged 50 % in 1998 Asian financial crisis, as interest rate soared from 5 to 19 %, Henseng index plunged 70 %, It recovered 20 % in 2000 boom, and plunged 25 % since 2001 recession and SARS as Henseng plunged to 8300, will be down 10 % this year, Recent Henseng overheated at 11000, will retest 10,000, help little for Hong Kong housing demand and prices.
S. Korea Housing prices wealth management bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted S  Korea housing prices  doubled in 1995- 1998  as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 18  %, Seoul index from 300 to 1400,, It plunged 50 % in 1998-99 Asian Financial crisis, as interest rate hike from 5 % to 15 %, Seoul index plunged to 200, and rebound  20 % since 2000  till now, housing loan more than doubled,  amount to 70 % of GDP, overheated, lead to Bank of Korea raising interest twice. facing deflation early this year and bubble burst risks
US , Asian SARS recovery boost Korean export and GDP growth second half 2003
provide support to housing demand, prices.

OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis wealth management  Root Causes Simulation:

These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit, led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997 , the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control without causing damage due to deflation and inflation

Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics under stress:

Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar exchange rate which influence the capital flow

.Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index, oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation rate)

These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately. It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and , commodities prices and inflation,

US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :

The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer 1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6 interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`

OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply, raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks, plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.
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