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Welcome to Proactive  structural dynamic combined top down and bottom up approach in  quantitative  financial modeling: simulation of Global and China Capital Markets Asset Prices, company valuation, bubbles  early warning, strategic macro / value investing and hedging
Market Forces Simulation and Optimal Dynamic Asset allocation  Simulation,
 By Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA capital market asset prices simulation

Contact : wh3928@yahoo.com   /  osawhh@sina.com   Fax : 1-510-524-4484(  San Francisco, USA)

Proactive portfolios valuation OSA
What's wrong with current valuation methods and value investing

Current valuation applying tradition valuation methods ( cash flow, income and financial ratios) based on 3 to 6 month corporate financial accounting ,and business, economic data, fail to reflect the fast changing global macro/financial/industrial economic market forces resulted bubbles, corporate scandals impact on future corporate performance and prices.  leading to trillion dollar investment loss.

Comment by Warren Huang - November 14, 2008 at 11:56 am

The causes (formation )of Asset Bubbles and corporate scandals and breakdown of traditional valuation
Excessive monetary, economic, fiscal policy ( rate and tax cuts) and WTO trade policy,  DFI hot money, stimulate excessive consumer, business demand resulted soaring asset demand, prices  and equities, properties wealth effect (increased spending, demand due to unrealized asset value gain) led to  fictitious demand,  over capacity, inventory, investment , debt )and  soaring prices bubbles ( equities and housing prices doubled) resulted asset ( properties, equities wealth effect, energy, IT , auto, steel) upward price spiral, inflationary pressure leading to asset prices bubbles and company over-valuation, financial accounting misreporting, make the traditional valuation breakdown, following the bubble burst

 Asset Bubbles Bursts: US housing wealth tripled  50 15 trillion since 1996, the bubble inflated by excessive rate and tax cuts will leading to bubble burst next year , if without series rate hike to deflate the bubble before then. US currency depreciation further feeding the raw material, commodities price bubble ( like current situation, oil, metal, cotton, soybean futures prices doubled, Chicago commodities index reaching 19 year high of 270) commodities and inflation, forcing central banks tightening credits ( Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on Nov. 5, 2003 Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital Market conference that US Fed will have to raise interest  rate hike before May 2004 cut assets demand and prices, excessive business, consumer credit default ( Greenspan announced Jan 2004 warned about asset bubbles and need for rate hike
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Nov. 1998 in Rome ECB conference on post EURO banking, finance integration strategy and May 1999 China central bank governor Asian central banks governors conference that Oil and IT bubble burst  will led US Fed to series rate hike June , 1999  resulted billion dollars inventory costs and corporate profit, stock prices plunge 50- 90 %,  massive job cuts, led to asset bubble burst, trillion dollar equities, properties market loss, NPL loan and wealth loss.
 Over Valuation in Post Bubble recovery : central banks rate cuts, increased money  market money injection, public construction, tax cuts, investment credit to stimulate consumer, business spending, and creating job,  generating properties, equities wealth effect to increase fictitious demand, overvaluation again due to overoptimistic over economic, job recovery and inflation, interest rate outlook.
How structural ,dynamic asset prices OSA forecasts Asset bubbles early warning provide reliable forward looking valuation: Dr. Warren Huang pioneering two master hands controlling, forecasts 3 to 6 months ahead  through dynamic structural simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO policy impact on interest rate, currency, commodities, 20 industrial sectors demand, prices , companies balance sheet, financial ratio  and the causes, onset, burst, recovery, early warning for over-valuation , corporate scandals of last 20 years  global economy, capital market asset bubble, prices, wealth effect by thousands structural, dynamics simulator tracking , forecasts accurately the causes, formation, inflation, deflation, burst, recovery of last 20 years US, European, China, Taiwan, Asian asset ( properties, equities wealth effect, energy, IT )bubbles and early warning for Asset  wealth effect bubble burst resulted trillion dollar market loss, Nonperformance Debt, Equities, Properties Operations Simulations Analysis, Default  Risks Simulation, Prevention, Corporate Governance Accounting Scandals  Early Warning 

20 years daily global capital markets, asset prices, wealth management bubble early warning tracking result

When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands  you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what he has been lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, Europ- ean executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and blue chips banking shares  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1900- 2090 , Taiwan index  6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1750, Shenzhen 3500- 4100, Euro : 1.18- 1.29 , Yen 105- 112
 ==Global Capital Market Asset Bubble, Prices, Wealth Effect Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis Models =

======== Special Strategic Value Investing, Wealth Management conference/workshops Announcement ====== Strategic Wealth Management Pioneer Dr. Warren Huang  will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , asset prices, wealth effect bubble, value investing, early warning, introducing thousands strategic value  investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, TV, radio audiences, Asian, US, European investors since 1985
He will offer in-house strategic value investing ,wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Feb- March
reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have   E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate

Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary value investing   model simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs: presented by Dr. Warren Huang to 20 Global central bank governors conferences 1998- 2002 and Global Finance Conference on Global Corporate Governance at Peking University , May 29 2002, Beijin and Asian Finance, Business Forum, on Asset Backed Securitization conference, Kula Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002
 ========= Shanghai  Conference/in-house value investing workshops Announcement ==============
Dr. Warren Huang  speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices  simulation, bubble early warning value investing: Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
====== Singapore Asia Euro-Events  Conference/in-house workshops Announcement =======
Dr. Huang  speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market conference Nov.5, 2003
three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, value investing,  risk management  reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com ==================================================================
Excessive money supply, fiscal, economic policy lead to 7 year global IT expansion resulted high tech, equities, properties excessive, fictitious demand asset prices bubble bursts, followed by interest rate hikes, plunging consumer, business demand, manufacturing oversupply, plunging profits and stock prices and trillion dollar nonperformance in Japan, China, Taiwan banking industry, Trillion dollar loss in US, global IT industry and mounting home and auto loan defaults, credit card delinquency in Hong Kong, US, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia , lead to huge write-off loss and to maintain Basle's 's capital ratio.
China Asset management is working on 430 billion , Japan is working on 430 billion bad loan, Taiwan banks write off 0.3 trillion bad loan last year and 0.2 trillion the first half this year.
Asset Management bought the bad loan working hard to recover the loan loss through auction, securitization all facing tough time in current turbulent financial markets. while the existing banking industry sold the old bad loan to asset management co or write off the old loan are facing new bad loan.
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will organize NPL asset management workshops for global banking industry offer his 30 years experience in tracking, simulate monetary, economic, fiscal policy tracking , simulate the causes, onset, recovery of these bad loan and maximize the recovery, providing the pre-warning, risk hedging to prevention future bad loan happening.
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Goal: Provide competitive  nonperformance asset bid/auction pricing to maximize asset return, price recovery at minimum asset procurement costs and default risks
Mission: Structural dynamic deterministic simulators developed out of extensive historic information knowledge base, tracking, forecast monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economy, financial market prices, debt, equities, properties  asset prices, provide good timing and competitive  aution pricing  to minimize procurement  costs, market loss, default risks, maximize asset  investment return,  sells recovery ratio,
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Dr. Huang  lectured to Peking University Global Corporate Governance May 28, 2002 , Beijin, and to  Asian Business Forum's Asset Backed Securitization Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002   He warned that US and global stocks overheated, facing final stage bottoming correction in early 2003 to European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global trillion dollar nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement , investment costs and credit defaults risks  due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle, financial crisis integration, interaction  impact on interest, currency, industrial demand, prices,  the causes, onset, history , recovery of  of nonperformance  asset bubble bursts, default maximize  investment return,  auction  resell , syndicated loan  value recovery, workshops by  thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial engineering, structural  finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset Management, Credit defaults risks control on this website
He will offer   in-house Asian Economy and  Capital Market Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation,
Forecsts , investment strategy, early warning risk management  workshops in Asia   reserve :email   wh3928@yahoo.com =======================================================================================Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on May 28-29, 2002 Peking University global finance conference Beijin that Dow Jones blue chips, old economy stocks, Asian, European stocks, mutual fund overheated, ready for 30 % correction. but China Shanghai A  oversold at 1450 will rebound to 1730
He demonstrated OSA simulators for tracking, simulate, forecast the root causes, onset, recovery of global nonperformance loan, credit defaults( Bubble Burst impact on ENRON, WCOM, Guanxia stock prices, credit rating and  Taiwan banks nonperformance loan, banks performance, stock prices, and Citigroup, JP Morgan nonperformance loan, stock prices simulation, Intel, CISCO, Taiwan Semiconductors P4, DRAM prices, stock prices and Japan high tech, auto, banking prices in government shares buy strategy for workshop reservation   wh3928@yahoo.com
China's Hurong Asset Management has bought 407 billion nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties asset, will be recovered by auction, securitization
www.CHAMC.com.cn
Bank of Japan just announced to buy 50 billion  dollars stocks hold by top 10 banks bad loan. to support the sagging market and banks capital requirement
S. Korea is marching on successful by Korean assent management company to securitize auto, credit loan solving banks bad  loan.        www.kamco.or.kr
Hong Kong's Mortgage Corp www.hkmc.org.hk  and Malaysia Harnahart Corp are securitize mortgage to solve bank properties loan (following US Fannie Mae )
Taiwan bad  loan account to 12 % of toal loan in properties and equites, debt. The government also have stock market  stabilization fund, operated in the past to buy high quality share at Taiwan at 5000, 4500, 3500. Hong Kong also have stabilization fund buy share at Henseng index around 7000-9000 during the Asian crisis.
However, all these measure require reliable asset pricing decision tools for the timing and investment strategy during the global market slump
These Global  Capital Markets, Nonperformance  Debt, Equities, Properties  Asset Pricing Operations Simulations Analysis, provide reliable simulation of the root, onset, recovery,  pre-warning of Default  Risks
Dr. Warren Huang's speech  to Asian Business Forum on  Asset backed securitization(ABS)  simulation, risk management strategy
What is wrong with  Wall Street and global financial market?,
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ?  What Wall Street need ?
How  to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts risks
You will find out all the answers in Dr. Warren Huang's speech prediction  on Global capital market asset prices, risk simulation in Beijin for Peking University's global finance conference on corporate governance May 28-29,2002 and the following webpages

Lectures/Workshops for Beijin University business and finance center organized Global Finance, Corporate Governance conference  May 28,2002 and to Guanhua school of management faculty and graduates for EMBA, CFA, business, financial research center  and other in-house workshops by appointment
           Dr. Warren Huang, Founder OSA Global Investing/ Int'l Operations Analysis
                     website: www.osawh.com  email  wh3928@yahoo.com 
                      presented to Global Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation
                       9:00 AM- 10:30 AM May 28, 2002, Global Finance Conference
                     at Fragrance Hill Hotel, Beijin sponsored by Peking University
 2:00 PM-5:PM, May 29 Guanhua School of Business, Business and Finance Research Center Beijin,

                                                                       Abstract

This work is part of author's 30 years global investment strategic risk management dynamics OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) experience. Which have been developed, implemented out of last 25 years global economic and daily financial markets stable, under stress crisis , bubble bursts data. These deterministic, state variable, artificial intelligence neural net based simulators have been tracking, predicted global central bank monetary , economic, fiscal policy  impact on last 25 years global inflation, major economic indicators, interest rates, currency, stocks, (right master hand) bond, commodities futures and derivatives, housing properties old and new economy oils, IT upstream/ downstream  20 industrial demand, prices associated macro economics imbalance bubble bursts , 20  industrial sectors 5000 products supply, demand, commodity prices, old and new economy corporate earning, stock prices(left master hands), trillion dollar financial markets trading loses, properties markets nonperformance loan, defaults. Predicted the root causes, onset, recovery of 1980, 1990 energy crisis, economic recession, 1987 stock markets crash, 1992 European currency, 1997-98 Asian , Russia, South American, LTCM financial crisis and current recession and recovery, market crash Wall street , stock prices plunge , loan default risks with average error below 1.5 %,correlation constant above 0.95 (detailed can be found on www.osawh.com  
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Global Capital Market Asset Prices, Bubbles Bursts Simulation, Early Warning Application to Global Economic , capital markets outlooks, risks and return  In-House Workshops
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Recent tracking results  simulation forecast of 2000 bubble burst and 2001-2003 recovery
 Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA presented the following dynamics simulation results in his panel session May 28.,2002, OSA simulation charts will be demonstrated in the workshops  in-House workshops reservation by selecting your region/country and subject of interests in one to two full day workshops  wh3928@yahoo.com 
 Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA presented the following dynamics simulation results in his panel session May 28.,2002, Beijin Univeristy global finance corporate governance conference and Asian Business Forum Asset Backed Securitization Conference, Kuala Lumpur Sept 30, 2002
OSA simulation charts ( if requested )will be demonstrated in  all Dr. Huang's  workshops

1.Strategic Corporate Governance Reform Accounting  Scandals Early Warning  OSA
 on hign-tech, energy , power prices bubble burst impact on earning, stock prices, credit rating and nonperformance loan
China's Guangxia (0557) and US Enron Earning, Stocks Prices bubble bursts pre-warning simulation
2. Banking Reform:  Root Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of global NPL loan
Monetary Policy high tech bubble burst impact on impact on US, China FDI capital flow, Banking nonperformance loan  Credit risks , Mutual fund performance, earning, stocks prices
Citigroup, JP Morgan
3. Asset prices, bubbles, Securitization  risk simulation:
Asian Property loan demand/ prices, bubble burst  auto loan demand, sales, credit demand, Delinquency ,the root causes, onset, recovery of nonperformance delinquency/ ABS performance rating, stock prices
US mortgage rate, Housing prices, refinancing, impact on Fannie Mae sales, earning, stocks prices
US auto interest free finance, sales, Big three stock prices, US loan , credit card delinquency OSA
China,  Hong Kong   Taiwan  Hong Kong  Singapore  Japan 
J. P. Morgan, Pudong / Mingshen Banks JF China Fund  Hua-an fund and gloobal mutual fund performance, investment strategy
4. Global Equities Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation:
Monetary Policy, Global Interest rate , Currency impact on Stock Index Futures Prices Simulation
Dow Jones/Nasdaq/ Japan Nikkei index/  Hong Kong Henseng Index/ Taiwan Stock Index futures Prices  London Financial Times, DAX index 
5. Enterprises privatization, Strategic IPO , ADR share prices simulation
Monetary Policy, Hi -Tech, Oils prices bubble impact on China IPO, ADR shares prices simulation
China software king Yunyue , Mingshin bank IPO and China Offshore Oil  ADR stock prices Simulation
6 China, Asian, Global housing properties, asset prices simulation
.Monetary Policy, Interest rate Wealth effect impact on US ,China, Japan, Hong Kong Housing Prices
7 Global IT upstream/downstream demand, prices , sales, earning, stock prices simulation .Monetary Policy, Interest , currency  impact on US NAPM, products innovation cycles impact on semiconductor B/B, DRAM, Intel P4  demand, spot prices and bubble bursts 
6.  Root causes, on set, recovery of global financial crisis impact on capital market prices simulation :
Monetary , economic, fiscal  Policy impact on the EURO, ASEAN, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Korea Interest rate , Currency, stock indices before, during ,after the Asian, EURO, Russia, US recession, South American financial crisis 
8. Strategic  Global Pre/post merger/acquisition performance, stocks prices Simulation: Monetary Policy, global economic, business cycle impact on  US  J P Morgan Exxon-Mobil   M/A Simulation
9. Monetary Policy, Interest rate ,Currency, Export impact on US , CHina GNP, Stock Index Futures Prices    US quarterly GNP Growth Rate?  NY Dow Jones and Nasdaq  Index     Future
10 Global Commodity, crude oil prices simulation:
.Interest rate, trade impact on currency futures, option Consumer demand on crude oil futures,
11: Structural financial products, derivatives, options prices simulation
 Japan Yen exchange rate future and  NYMEX Wtex crude oil   Future and call option price
12 Global currency futures operation  pricing mechanism and forecasts
13 Global stock indices futures operation  pricing mechanism and forecasts
Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA, has his Ph.D in Chemical Engineering, Operations Resaerch from Polytrechnic Institute of New York with thesis   extending APPLO moonlanding  tracking of  Nonlinear adaptive Kalman filtering  to applications to Chemical reactors control and econometric forecasting,
Hhas over 30 years develope, implement 32 global strategic knowledge management supported   investment, supply chain simulation systems supporting US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bailey Network Control, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, FLuor, Kaiser board members, corproate/plant think tanks and Taiwan, CHina, economic planning, ministry of economic, finance, trade council, state and medium, small enterprises reengineerinig, change management  investment,supply chain strategy  daily strategic decisions.
He has offered regular lectures to Beijin, Shanghai, Guanzhou, Shenzhen, Taipei, San Francisco 15 cities TV, Radio, newspaper 30 million banking, finance money, fund managers, investors and thousands on the job training workshops for China, Taiwan 100 banking, securities companies CEO, fund, money managers, traders, investors, and  trained 1000 Taiwan's Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai university Chemical Engineering, economics, global strategic management senior,, graduate students, and lectured CHina's Tsinghua, Peking, Fudan,, Zechiang, Dalian, East China, Hua-Chun science, TEch economic management, Finance, chemical engineering, computer control faculty, students,   avoided trillion dollar market loss since 1990. He has been invited to speak to 30 global central bank governor   financial risk management conferences on global banking, financial crisis, capital markets asset bubble simulation, risk manage ment since 1998. He offer consulting service t

Click here for Corporate risks management annual  memberships available  for global central bankers, financial institutions,hedging fund managers, investment banking Corporate CEO, CFO, financial, procurement, marketing manager,traders, investors, investment and risk management  decision supports and senior, entry level staff on the job training. 

Contact :   wh3928@yahoo.com   San Francisco, USA)
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