Predicted
3 months ahead last
20 years global currency, financial crisis 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing,
2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
.
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately
predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this
website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in
May 2004
job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second
quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate
hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994 will achieve soft
landing Apr. 2005, Global bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation.
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,
Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
and again
to Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
www.osawh.com
website and thousands workshops
warning US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job
creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 45 trillion dollar housing, equities
wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over
120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear
market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound. US trade deficit soared to 48
billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004,
profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking
out, facing squeeze in summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at
March 370,000, May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices
peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer
confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy.
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
consolidation.
He lectures Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China
finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and
to
China economists meeting Fudan University,
Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month ahead, investment
opportunities in China
petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR ,
Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning
for asset bubbles in oil,
commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested
in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive
China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will
lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise
bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay
above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to
2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US
economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs
can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and inflation outlook
may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose
380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble
repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July
facing and correction 2004,
Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq 1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post
election bubble burst from 7200 to 5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening
continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen
105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004
will gave up all this year gain
US 2003- 2004 repeat 1998- 2000 asset bubbles OSA : ( right master
hands OSA)
Dr. Huang predicted Nov. 2003 to 1000 global fund managers in Singapore,
Shanghai Euroevents conferences that US and China facing rate hike after May
2004:
US 13 rate cuts to 1 % and second tax cuts led to money supply growth of 9
% productivity and GDP growth 8.4 %, third quarter, consumer spending up 7.9 %
business spending up 18 %, retails sales growth 7.6 % Dec 2003 ,east, west
coasts housing prices soared 66 % since 2001, plunging dollar and
excessive consumer demand led to oil, commodity reaching 23 year high
oil, cotton, copper, platinum ,soybean prices doubled, despite CPI up only
1.2 %( exclude energy and food) , ISM index soared from 39 to 66, consumer
confidence soared to 103 , corporate profit soared 76 % in the final
quarter 2003, investor bullish index higher than 1987 crash, Nasdaq soared 80 %,
Dow up 26 % in 2003. but jobless rate stay at 5.6 %, with 24
millions loss jobs, 117000 job cuts in Jan,2004, despite 112,000 new job added,
All the early warning sign of asset bubbles facing burst, UK,
Australia, ECB, Korea and China all raised rate or tightening credit to deflate
the bubbles. US Fed is determined to create jobs, create 2.4 million jobs
to delay action on rate hike , March 370,000 and April 288,000 , May 233,000 new job creation
0.7 % whole sales rise due to soaring oil, commodity prices (reaching 20 year
high) forced Fed to raise interest rate in and deflate the asset bubbles as its did in the
previous bubble bursts 1998-2000
Optimizing value chain profit in
fighting last 20 years global/
US/China credit tightening, soaring feedstock cost
for oil, petrochemicals and downstream end users 20
industrial sectors :housing, construction material, auto, appliances, IT, metals
5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices
mechanism OSA/
forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon
Processing and
20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon
Processing,
advanced control-information system
handbook 1991-2003
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html circulation to 80 countries
1600 multinationals , lectured to American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond
Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo,
Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers
conferences published thousands Chinese articles o daily newspapers, economic,
finance, industrial economic newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100
countries currencies, export pricing in Taiwan, China.
Manufacturing
Process Operations Improvement and Power plant integrated Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM
/Logistics Operations Improvement for cost/quality performances: de-bottleneck,
waste/energy minimization, maximize top grade products yields, minimize off grade loss,
power blackout early warning.
Complete in-depth strategic
OSA for your suppliers, manufacturing process, your customers, end-users and your
competitors, Oil,
gas, refining
Olefin/polyolefins
styrene, derivatives
fibers/
plastics pulp/paper IT upstream/ downstream
Power Plant Optimization
housing, auto, appliance
US 1998- 2000 asset bubble burst OSA:
US Fed 3 interest rate cut in 1998 winter boosted money supply from 7 % to 10.5 %,
pushed Dow Jones index from 7200 to to 11300, Nasdaq from 1600 to 3400 , GNP to
6.2 % at 1.6 & low inflation due to falling commodity and oil
prices. However, 1999 winter excessive money supply for Y2K
resulted US all time high stock prices and soaring Asian stock prices and
demand boosted consumer and business spending pushed oil prices more
than tripled caused US inflation up 3.6 % (exceeding the target 2 %)
,industrial sector sales, profits growths, industrial sector sales, profits
growth at 35 % and 27 % for first quarter 2000, consumer spending
increased 8.3 % lead to 27 % ,industrial sector sales, profits growth up
22 % and serious labor shortage lead to Greenspan 6 interest rate hike, to cool
down the wealth effect on the US asset bubble bursting resulted consumer
spending decline from 8 % to -1.8 % in 911, 2001, business spending from 20 %
to- 16 %
resulted and sales, earning growth decline 56 % in third , final quarter 2001,
US Fed 11 rate cut and trillion dollar tax cuts
boosted consumer spending to 6 % in final quarter 2001 and 3.5 % in first quarter
2002,pushed demand up and, prices. Oil prices soared from 16 to 28 in the first quarter
2002, and stabilized at 25-28 in the second quarter, despite consumers spending drifted
down to 1. 9 %, GDP only 1.1 %
US Fed Monetary Policy on US Dow Jones,
Nasdaq S&P stock index, bond yield:
US soaring Stocks, Housing prices, low unemployment, fueling consumer and business
demand, and Dr. Huang this website warning that early 2000 , US Dow Jones index will
test 9600, Nasdaq will plunged from 5100 to test 2800-3000 support, with high flier IPO, internet, IC, Biotech
stocks crash plunge more than 50-95 %, US economic growth will be slowdown to 2 % in the
third quarter2000. He also predicted July 2001 on this site that Dow, were
overpriced will retreat to 9000 ,Nasdaq wil crash, plunged to retest
1200-1300
when corporate earning decline 55 %, Dr. Huang's OSA simulation accurately
predicted to 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management
conference since 1999 and in Aug. 2000 that US will facing recession threat due to 6 rate hike
since 1999 and wages increase 4.5 % drag consumer consumer confidence to plunge to
92, NAPM plunged to 41 in to recession and wholesale prices, unemployment
rate up to 4.5 %, GDP down to 1 %
Dr. Huang warned in March that Dow speculating on further rate cut , technical
rebound to 11000 are overpriced in 2002, correction to below retest 8200 , old
economics stocks, finance, oil, retails stocks ready for 30-50 % correction, prices
compression is imminent As Nasdaq entering final stage corrections and
consolidation in 1200- 1350
30 yr. bond yield will be traded 5.2-5.6 %, Junk bond yield up to 14 % to 60 %
( Argintina )
US stock prices
interest rate impact on consumer and business spending.
The soaring stock prices further fueling properties prices, labor cost and consumer,
to 8.3 % , business spending up 25 % new high, US inflation already
over3.6 % in 2000.
2004 -2005 OSA economic
forecast
by Dr. Warren Huang June 2004
Global economic recovery facing slowdown
Real GDP % change
CPI % change
Exchange rate /USD
2004 2005
2004 2005
2004 2005
China
8.5
8.7
3.1 2.5
8.11 8.00
S. Korea
5.1 4.5
3.1 3.1
1125 1150
US
4.1 3.5
2.5 2.3
----
Brazil
3.5 3.3
6.6 5.2
3.1 3.1
Canada
3.0 3.1
2.0 2.1
1.33 1.33
Mexico
3.1 3.0
4.2 4.1
11.22 11.5
Japan
3.0 2.0
-0.1 0.2
106.5 107.0
Euro
1.7 2.0
1.8 1.9
1.25 1.24
Rate hikes impact on US
slowdown
GDP annual change
Annual CPI change Quarterly average
SP 500
2004
2005
CPI 2005 QII
Fed fund rate 10Yr T-B
06/30/05
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2
2005 Q2
2005 Q2
BW Concensus 4.4 4.2 4.1
3.5 3.6
2.2
2.57
5.34
1223
Dr. Huang OSA 5.1 3.5 3.3
3.2 3.1
2.3
2.75
5.50
1100
2004
Industrial
sectors sales, profits growth , performance rating OSA/Forecast earning-warning
Soaring consumer spending generated housing wealth effect bubble by
excessive rate and tax cuts and
business spending led by soaring stock markets ( equities wealth effect bubble),
and soaring profit due to soaring oil, commodities prices, dollar plunged 50 %
vs Euro in 2003 and first half 2004 will peaking out
and resulted
excessive high cost inventory in the second half this year in oils,
petrochemicals, chips, PC, old economics, auto.
Prices cutting promotion for inventory clearance in the current
quarter. and may extend into the rest of the year.
Sales Growth
Profit growth
Investment outlook
4th Qr 03 1Q 04 2Q 04
4Q03 1Q04
2Q 04
3Q04
All Industries :
10
17
14
76 129
25 6
performance peaking
Aerospace:
12
7
12
5 5 5 5
stable
Automotives 10
7
9
-70
33 34 -5
shrinking profit
Banks
1 5
5
18
14 15 -5
shrinking profit
Chemicals
14
14
19
14 62
22 5 shrinking
profit
Apparel:
12
11 11 22 17
21 -5
peaking out
Appliances
15 6
2
18
12
16 -5
shrinking profit
Papers 7
15
15 16
14 15 2
- shrinking profit
Retail discount
8 5
7
78
38
66 8
peaking out
Electronics
12 12
15
NM
NM NM 12
peaking out
Semiconductors 21
28
13
NM
NM NM0 5
price cutting
Food
10
17
11 -1
-5 -5 5
bubble/ shrinking profit
Fuel
17 8
17
100
2 90 14
peaking out
Drugs (major)
19 20
15 -35 5 - 5
5 stable
Housing
20 15
5
18 10
15 5
bubbles
Manufacturing 2
- 3
2
20
8 5
3
peaking out
Metals/mining 14 35
15
61
226 166 55 bubbles
Financial service 8 14
15
112 44
55 16
equities bubble
Computers
11
11 15
401 9
15 6
peaking out
Telecom.
-2 1
5
-84
-12 -10 -6
slow recovery
Airline
-6
-5
- 5
shrinking loss 5
price war
Utilities
10 3
15
-55 11 -55
-33 soaring
costs
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of
last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious
cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull
markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties
pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock
markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor
confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in
US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994
China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil
currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and
high GDP growth
USA
China Thailand
Taiwan Japan
Hong Kong Korea
Singapore Indonesia
Canada Mexico
Website :
www.osawh.com
email whuang3928@aol.com
Services:
Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices, bubbles
simulation, earning warning executives workshops
, On the Job Training
program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training
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