US 8  trillion dollar mortgage, banking finance bail out  plan  performance Operations Simulation Analysis

 Proactive Structural Simulation of US and Asian  Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis,  Credit Crisis and Financial Crisis,Recession,  , Causes onset, spread and Consequences and  Recession ,Bail out, Economic stimulus plan impact simulation  Daily Blogs and Workshops )
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, mortgage default, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
tally up the federal government's bailout tab.

There was $29 billion for Bear Stearns, $345 billion for Citigroup. The Federal Reserve put up $600 billion to guarantee money market deposits and has aggressively driven down interest rates to essentially zero.
The list goes on and on. All told, Congress, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and other agencies have taken dozens of steps to prop up the economy.

More from CNNMoney.com: • CNNMoney.com Special Report: Transition to Power • Your Money: Obama on 20 key issues • Obama: $300 billion in tax cuts

Total price tag so far: $7.2 trillion in investment and loans. That puts a lot of taxpayer money at risk. Now comes President-elect Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan, some details of which were made public on Monday. The tally is getting awfully close to $8 trillion. details on

 http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout

Why Bailout plan failed:
http://www.moneymorning.com/report/Bailout_Report_MMBAI1008.pdf

                                           Warren Huang    OSA  Intl   Operations Analysis  San Francisco, Ca., USA                       
             Website :www.osawh.com /  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1   email: wh3928@yahoo.com
                        Fenglan Zhang,  Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China  joycezhang001@yahoo.com.cn,  

Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that US and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 ( with Oct . 2008 20 city Schiller  price index down 19 % http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation ), drag US and  global economy into 1980 style deep double dip recession  stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 -70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 6000- 7000, NASDAQ test 1100- 1250, S&P test 600-  700 low, oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to 30，Gas oil from 1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as global economy  enter deep recession through 2009, despite rate cuts to zero, US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis , there is no economic recovery till late 2009, even with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out and infrastructure job creation program. US spend 8 trillion bailout  fighting crisis , recession   http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout   http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDP adn 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening lossdetails on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.ht

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis , capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Market Beat  Blog- - January 16, 2009 at 4:04 pm

Comment by Warren Huang   Yahoo finance Blog- December 30, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Banking finance, housing performance
Based on my research of last 30 year global housing price bubble burst, the housing price plunge depend very much on the size of housing price bubble, and macro ecnomy ( consumer spending, unemployment). With US housing price bubble gain 400 % insome cities, hosuing price must have 50 % correction, while on average, hosuing price must correct 30- 50 %, natioanl housing price must slump 30 %., as I predicxted on Wall Street Journal market beat and this blog since Set. 2007.  therefore we have to wait to see the full imact of 7.5 % unemployment,
-6 % GDP contraction, and -10 % plunge in consumer, business spending next year, before housing price slump stopped, the Schiller index will be down 30 % then, cities like NY, Seattle prices still too high, it have to plunge 20 % to see any bottom, as to feel the the massive job cuts impact on it.  details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog- December 10, 2008 at 6:43 pm

What we need is the goal, mission , performance  tacking of these 10 items, and use proactive structural
approach to implementing these items, provide the what, why, how and timing of each problem,Take reduce foreclosure for example, find out why it fail to effectively cut foreclosure rate is due to most home owner lost their jobs, even, cut payment, mortgage rate can not help. You will find out that continued housing price slump drag economic deeper into recession, soaring job loss made things tougher. All these problems must integrating current, future macro, financial , industrial ( housing), economic for solution.
details on www.osawh.com/PGFCR.html www.osawh.com/PApBS.html

 Continued SEC restriction on naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I predicted on this blog that we are half way to housing, stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing, financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 10600 this morning plunged to 11400.
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 before labor day due to rebate check support d summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment to  Wall Street Journal  REal Time Economics  Blog Aug 3,  2008  3:26AM 

The economy escaped recession in 2 Q with 1.9 % GDP growth, benefited by aggressive rate cuts and 160 billion economic package, at the cost pushing higher consumer demand for retail, food, gasoline led to 147 dollar crude oil price, skyrocketing  commodity food prices and 5 % CPI 9.2 % PPI inflation.
THe economy will slide into recession in the final quarter as the rebate check run out, and soaring job cuts, continued housing price slump, stock market correction. will drag ISM to 45 contraction slump
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrsisab.htm www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

May 2008 Schiller housing price index plunge 16 %, decline accelerate continue confirm our housing price slump model predicted on Wall Street Journal market beat, development blog  http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_072943.pdf                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                               Abstract

This paper demonstrated  Huang’s 30 years pioneering proactive, structural equities, housing asset prices bubbles bursts spread into credit, financial crisis Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), applications to US national and regional sub-prime and prime mortgage default crisis, credit crunch early warning
Thousands simulators have been developed, implemented for strategic investment, markets, credit risks simulation integration early warning for 30 million China, US Taiwan 15 cities 30 million institutional, private investors, global finance, capital market QFII, QDII, real estate, insurance, credit rating agencies, multinational CEO, seniors executives, lectures, workshops and 24 global central bank governors, banking, financial crisis, Hedging risks management conferences.
These artificial intelligence neural net based expert systems integrated macro financial, industrial econometrics OSA tracking, forecast years, months ahead of the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early  warning of last 20 years global banking, financial and housing ,asset bubble burst , credit default crisis, financial crisis..
These dynamic deterministic OSA　tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macroeconomic inflation, GDP, daily Fed fund rates, mortgage interest rate, currency, commodities, housing mortgage demand, prices impact on  credit rating,  prepayment, defaults, systemic risks, recovery modeling, financial futures, credit derivatives, CRE, CDO, ABS, MABS assets class securitization pricing, credit and cash flow performance, hedging risks early warnings, integrating monetary policy impact on asset market prices risks into credit risk,  supporting financial, systems investment，macro-economic systemic risks , Basel II  credit, markets , operational risks control.
Huang directed Zhang to extend these OSA simulators to Nobel laureate  R. Engle’s Spline GARCH and co-integrate into Granger causes and casualty analysis. mortgage default and housing prices and ABS pooled asset credit and performances are related to deterministic exponential spline, combination of macro , monetary  economic and  time series dynamics . These unconditional mortgage default probability is estimated for US , China, Asian (  China, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) UK national, regional housing prices bubbles, and mortgage default probability , credit crunch over recent housing boom and bust cycle
These analysis also supporting Huang’s 30 years OSA tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of mortgage default credit crunch  in which mortgage default risks are caused by 40 year low mortgage rate resulted speculative purchase and financing created soaring housing prices bubbles and banking, finance stock prices  wealth gain bubble, the default rate soared as mortgage rate rebound from 5.7 % to 6.7 % ,and jobless rate soared from 4.4 % to 5.5 % in 2007 ( now at 7.2 % in 2008)  while housing prices peaking out，down 20 %  increased sub-prime home buyer prepayment and monthly interest payment cost and soaring jobless rate  .
Despite monetary policy is not direct cause of default due to central bank only focus on underestimated  core inflation and unemployment (exclude food, energy cost ), ignoring housing and equities, commodities prices bubbles.  Excessive rate, tax cuts lead to over spending in personal debt and business spending created  trillions dollar housing and stock s market wealth gain , excessive liquidity speculative bubble asset bubbles growth to big for any central bank monetary policy to handle., lead to final bubble burst.
  This model shown by Dr. Warren Huang  Sept  2007 on Wall Street Journal Market Beat and Real Estate Development blog that  Current US regional housing price slump will continue through   2009 plunge 30- 50 %  Schiller 20 cities national  housing price index plunge 30 % ( down 25 % in Nov 2008)  drag economy into  2009 deep recession by soaring job cuts,  foreclosure default, and plunging consumer, business spending, stock prices bear market  50 % correction , despite Fed monetary easing, rate cuts , trillion dollar bail out, m2money supply growth soared to 7.7 % and zero fed fund rate. Default rate soared to 12 % in  northern California  with 7.5% jobless rate, while national default at 9  % with 7.2% jobless rate..  .
    These models improve current probabilistic, statistical CAPM  asset pricing and Monte Carlo default simulation, oversimplified macroeconomic,  mortgage bond spread, credit rating and hedge fund,  real estate asset prices in structural finance CRE, MABS, CDO applications. tracking, forecast month ahead global  monetary, policy, foreclosure impact on national and regional housing prices avoided trillion dollars loss due to betting on the wrong side of credit derivatives, speculation over the business, economic news resulted past , current mortgages loan default and  stock market crash.

4 millions global government, banking, finance, enterprises CEO, executives and academics visited Huang’s www.osawh.com website tracking  forecasts last 10 years daily results.  

 Keyword : Housing ,Equities bubbles, Operations Simulations Analysis, proactive structural CAPM  credit risk,  market risks, currency interest rates derivatives pricing, risks hedging, securitization Basel II  risk  
presented  to Global financial engineering risk management conference , Peking Univ. June 12, 2007, Beijing, China

presented to International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference, June 12, 2007, Peking University China, with Noble prize 2003 Economic winner, 2003, give keynote speech on Spline GARCH applications and  to Asset Based Securitization Conference, Malaysia Central bank conference, Sept. 30, 2002 with Standard & Poors managing director give keynote speech

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 85- 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehaman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure program maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 2.4% in Nov .2008  after   China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 %start rate cuts to support 2009 growth while next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 3 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 24 2008 11:26AM ;  We are half way to housing and stock market correction

2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary recession, stock bear market correction.
Proactive Structural dynamic analysis of US Sub-prime crisis 
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

The Long- short of FNM, FRE and banking , finance stocks
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 15  2008 at 5:51 pm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 14  2008 at 5:51 pm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- June 19, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking , proactive structural simulation last 30 year US/global housing price bubbles fundamental mechanism are driven by demand side housing, equities, wealth and monetary, policy. Housing price slump is due to soaring prices beyond affordability and investment incentive in poor underlying fundamental, ( soaring job cuts, unsold inventory, plunging consumer confidence). current housing price have to plunge t ( down 50 %) to more attractive affordable, as it did in all
housing bubble burst, Even rate cuts, stimulus package will not change the fundamental supply demand market forces.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/wealthm.html www.osawh.com/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang- May 15, 2008 at 2:03 pm on How to identify  and control asset bubble on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog

Trillion dollar recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

click here for2008  US inflation, recession out look and asset prices, asset allocation strategy
 click here for 2008 housing slump impact on  economic recession and equities, commodities asset prices, allocation strategy forecast                                      

 Housing Default , credit crisis  on Wall Street Real Time Economic, Market beat daily blogs  
                                                                                                      
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 29, 2007  

From my 30 years proactive, structural simulation forecast of global monetary economic, fiscal policy impact on global housing, equities, bond, commodities, gold prices:
1. Housing sales, and housing starts will continue follow housing price slump which holding up buy rate cuts supported stock market rally.We will not see the trough, the eventual tough of housing price slump and sales, start trough until stock market end its correction and crash with the housing markets prices next summer.
2. Gold price speculation only on economic fundamental, not on geopolitical events, soaring demand, plunging dollar pushed record oil commodity, gold prices, inflation not by any geopolitical crisis.
3. It is meaningless for checking stock index ending the last day of the year. Stock prices responded dynamics to the price mechanism ( fundamentals, macro-financial economy, sectors supply, demand)
not on any specific calender, regardless January or year end effect. Strong December can not guarantee strong Jan.. Housing slump will drag market into bear correction in 2008.
It is still premature for Soverign Fund (SWF) petrodollar to pick up the financial mess due to mortgage default.
These banking, finance, housing stocks write off have not seen the worst. Early summer of 2008 is much better timing.As Citi make its new low after ABU cash injection.
Morgan, Merril will find new low in the month ahead.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/SWF.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - December 29, 2007 at 12:03 pm

Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 27, 2007 Housing price bubble burst cycle                                                
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles .and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth.My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range.takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - November 30, 2007 at 8:24 pm According to my mortgage default model, default rate is closely related to mortgage rate, money supply, housing price, stock market price, Fed fund rate.
freeze the mortgage rate will work only if the house price and stock price both going up or freezed too.
Default rate will go up with housing and stock price definitely to plunge till next summer. Fed rate cuts and freeze will not be able to cut housing , stock price enough to reduce mortgage default for the sub-prime and jumbo loan. detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco  in-house Strategic Housing Investment, default risks early warning workshops    wh3928@yahoo.com
 5 day optimal long-short strategy for 130/30 ETF equities hedge  fund asset allocation and portfolio selections 
Full day China/  Asian  ( India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control , Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day Taiwan inflation control, country risks, housing, stocks  prices bubble burst, default crisis early warning workshop
5 Day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning , National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day Taiwan  housing bubble   control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops