Optimal US Fed monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on (stocks, bond, housiing) wealth effect on regional jumbo, sub-prime mortgage loan default, housing prices OSA (Operations Simulations Analysis)

Innovation in US Fed proactive-reactive, structural macroeconomic optimal monetary policy and asset ( stocks, bond, housing, commodities, derivatives ) prices bubbles , GDP simulation, inflation  control: Structural dynamic proactive simulation of monetary, financial, fiscal policy impact on macroeconomic, finance, Capital Market Asset Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation, Forecasts, macro stress testing early warning

Proactive, Structural US/China/Global Monetary Policy and Wealth Effect impact on US housing and equities prices bubbles identification, burst, recovery and    burst, crisis early warning simulation ( Proactive artificial Intelligence neural net based multivariate nonlinear regression models and Proactive structural VAR( Vector Auto-Regressive ) and Exponential GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Hetroskedastic ) financial econometrics models tracking forecast months, years ahead of last 20 years US/China/Global asset bubble burst history with correlation constant of 0.99 , maximum error below 4 %, presented to 24 global central banks governors,( China, US Fed, ECB, Asian) risk management conferences and in Peking University, China, 2007 June 16
Dr. Warren Huang thousands proactive structural dynamic simulators tracking, forecast China/US/Global US Fed ignoring 55 trillion housing and equities wealth gain resulted housing bubbles burst , sub-prime loan and hedging fund default and jumbo loan high prices housing continue inflating the price bubbles up 40 % in US, 70 % in China, Shenzhen will result further housing bubbles burst markets recession drag down equities market and bubble bursts lead to eventual US economic recession next year.Dr. Huang predicted July oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600 and global stocks plunged 20 %
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007 and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial engineering risk management conference that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage and hedging fund default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted global stock indices are extremely overpriced,
will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US Fed 0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly inflationary and continue into second stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)

US inflationary slowdown in 2007-2008 Oil price challenging 75-80, stocks, bond, dollar facing correction
Proactive structural, dynamic US jumbo, and sub-prime loan demand , default, housing price Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)
Polarized US housing markets: Despite US housing markets bubbles burst, entering recession housing starts and sales plunge 40 % since Jan 2006, billions dollars sub-prime and hedge fund defaults in July 2007.
However high priced Jumbo mortgage and housing in New York City and major US financial districts and IT cities ( San Francisco, Silicone Valley ) benefited by investment banking stock prices tripled fat 26 billion bonus and IT bubble ( Goggle and Apple stock price up 500 % HP up 400 % times lead to housing prices soared 40 % June 2007, continue bowing the bubble nearing burst ( more than tripled from 2002)

innovative proactive FRB Optimal monetary policy, rate hikes impact Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy. Bernanke replace Greenspan as FRB chairman Feb 2006, He continue Greenspan's monetary policy in ignoring asset price bubbles, by statement Fed only aimed at inflation and economy leading to US China and global central banks understimated asset price bubble impact on inflation. by applying measured interest rate hikes , miss interpreted, distorted by financial market economists and ending 17 rate hikes seriesst 17 measured rate hikes mislead the markets, underestimated the inflation by using 6 month lagging indicator core inflation exclude energy and food prices) and encouraged wealth effect resulted US/China/Global speculation in housing and construction materials bubbles in oil and natural resources. Oil prices will challenges 80 summer 2007, predicted by Dr. Warren Huang Dec. 2006 in Taipei and June 2007 in Beijin and metals prices making new high follows by commodities prices. Gas and electricity cost up 40 % will drive CPI higher i, there will be no rate cuts into the summer, US dollar and US and global stocks, bond all overvalued, facing 10-20 % correction.
    Greenspan agree with Dr. Warren Huang that RMB revaluation and US raise import tarrif by 27 % will not help manufacturing cut trade deficit and jobs. and accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes continue into final quarter as oil prices soared from 45 to 69 ,and again, Nov. 2005 to 30 Dow Jones, 10000- 10900, Nasdaq 2000- 2250, S&P 1150-1250
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 2005, to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets conference to Exxon Mobil, ARAMCO, VP , Phillips Petroleum CEO, 30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils , downstream demand lead to rate hikes continue into summer, 2006, driving oil prices to 64 around Christmas and 69 in January , metals prices to new high. US dollar, stock, bond facing correction.
book his 2006 US/China macroeconomic control, currency, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops osawhh@sina.com/ wh3928@yahoo.com

Global Strategic Management  OSA models forecasts, mission control help US FRB stay ahead of inflation, Capital Markets asset prices, bubbles mechanism, cause, onset, recovery of global financial crisis, risks, capitalize investment opportunity
OSA avoid trillion dollar Basel II credit, market, operational risk loss, achieve sustainable profit in crisis.
www.osawh.com    About OSA Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream    VIP/Corporate membership
Special announcement: As of March 2005, all www.osawh.com innovation in proactive structural dynamic   global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide by
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html and www.globalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, it accurately predicted Oil price soared to 69 in Aug 2005,and Jan 2006, US trade deficit soared above 69, dollar facing pressure, inventory built up , consumer inflation up 0.9 %, drag US into inflationary slowdown and Dow Jones test 10000- 10900, Nasdaq test 2050- 2300
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www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf

US Economy, Finance, Capital markets asset prices , interest rates Simulation, forecasts: bursts early warning and Dr. Warren Huang pioneered proactive macro stress testing integrating US Fed Monetary, Economic, Fiscal, Policy WTO Impact on macro economic growth, money, currency, stocks, bond, wealth management, Basel II Market , Credit risks Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)
US Fed overoptimistic over 2005 growth 3-75-4.00 and low inflation at 1.5--1.75 which are contradictory, ignoring excessive business , consumer demand resulted soaring oil to 55- 60 in summer, commodity making new high, and service inflation , will push core inflation to 2.5- 2.75, and series rate hikes drive 10 year bond yield to 5.0 % in summer,
lead to GDP slowdown to 3.00 %
2005 OSA Global economic forecast by Dr. Warren Huang June 2004

US proactive-reactive Fed monetary macroeconomic, inflation control tracking, forecasts:
US Fed policy can not shift to neutral until late summer 2005, waiting for the oil, commodity, housing bubble overheating cooling off.
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com website warning global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products due to US excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , Despite US December WPI and CPI drop due to brief oil prices dip to 40, (down 30 % from 55)US still facing 3.3 % CPI and 4.3 % WPI inflation. soaring consumer, business demand in the final quarter 2004 will further drive oil prices back to 50 in January cold winter and rebound to 55 in March gasoline demand, prices pick US will facing inflation soared to 5 % spring peaking holiday demand season
Global Macroeconomic Control Tracking, Forecasts:
US macroeconomic, inflation control tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com website warning global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products due to US excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. 2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season . US Greenspan, global economists, market analysts over optimistic over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004 and repeating in 2005 with US trade deficit soared to 55- 60 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending, peaking out, economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business facing profit squeeze in second half 2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50 % and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000 and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in 2004, with business spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up, oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50 cold winter will drive heating oil, and oil price rebound to 55-60 gas to 9.0 and metals to new high in summer 2005 will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out facing correction in the month ahead,
2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue, facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough. Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US dollar weakness continue in 2005: Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102,
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks rebound currently will gave up all this year gain China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks ( including IPO )facing 30-50 % bear market correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq 1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350, consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from 5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately predicted by Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
China first two month 2005 demand overheated again with fixed investment up 26 %, housing demand up 28 %,
retail sales up 14 %, industrial production up 17 %,Feb inflation up from Jan 1.9 % to 3.9 %, export up 37 %, fisrt quarter GDP will back up to 9 % again, the soaring oil prices at 56, will past it costs downstream, further drive oil, coal, transportation costs and steel, construction materials prices, push March inflation above 4 %, forced China Peoples Bank raised housing loan interest and first down payment by 10 %.,, more tightening in summer is expected.

Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only 10 %, asset prices, inflation followed soaring oil price to 55, all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou . retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4 %, inflation up 4 % . China economy is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and call the need for further interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer season . As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation. soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's 915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating, as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and implement structural rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices, and serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck.
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 % from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 % Dr. Huang also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble bursts
Hundred thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
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D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal, mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Hundred thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal, mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:

Breakthrough Innovation in global market economy demand, prices market forces mechanism simulation forecasts of global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control, impact on economy, finance, capital market market forces asset prices mechanism simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20 years emerging global finance, capital stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on global coal, Oil, Gas, petrochemicals, and freight, downstream power industry Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005 forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get first hand information and OSA proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas prices market forces mechanism simulation forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html and www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html materials as lectures contents *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global central banks, retail, investment banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, San Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.

Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar global strategic coal, energy , freight, power industry solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs and bottleneck
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his key note speech and workshop for Asian Business Forum
www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices market forces mechanism and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on global coal, oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream petrochemicals, power industry demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments risk adjusted return
C. Global / China coal, oil, gas, LNG , petrochemicals, freight, power industry prices market forces mechanism forecasts, project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking
or reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@sina.com :

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve osawhh@citiz.net
He has been invited to speak to 24 global (US, ECB, UK, China, Taiwan , ASEAN , HK, Asian) central bank governors,, finance, capital markets, wealth management , risk management conference since 1998 warned 1999 that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops

Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk hedging 2004 second half global investment strategy workshops ( June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China credit tightening, US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.
  Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII domestic and global investment strategy , risk management needs.
Dr. Huang accurately predicted last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead an d again at Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25, Euro-event Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003 Asian F inance, capital market conference on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/ 100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He warned that any free float of RMB will lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. Greenspan agree with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis and Dr. Huang also recommended to buy Russia oils, China A, B ADR oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US, Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Japan, German IT shares, due to price cutting and commodity, oil prices soared to 19 year high will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year, overoptimistic over inflation and job creation outlook, the disappointing Feb job only add 26000 , falling semiconductor B/B resulted global IT shares facing correction . buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst. and continue recommendation on China shares on China finance, capital market conference Shanghai, Nov. 25 , Beijin, Nov. 27 2003, but warned China stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan University, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation due to hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing, will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 33-39, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430 as confirmed by China People's bank to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17% this year ,cut bank reserve ratio 0.5 % Apr. 25 China leave RMB unchange , BP ( visit this website regularly, )selling PTR, SNP in Hong Kong and China ADR shares down 10- 20 % recently and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
He pioneered two master hands controlling global economic cycles, daily capital market asset prices, wealth bubble through thousands structural, dynamic predictive models , simulating   Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact on Global Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth, Prices bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession, early warning FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks Hedging OSA ( early warning for asset, wealth effect bubble bursts resulted global financial crisis, bubble bursts due to current central banks monetary policy feedback control based on 1- 3 month old data, chasing the markets, doing too little, too late in deflate the bubble, while excessive rate, tax cuts to inflate the bubble till burst.
Thousands Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead, Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery : and beat the global ADR strategy, capitalize on global financial crisis, asset bubble burst and avoided trillion dollar market loss.

USA Australia Asian Canada China Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand Japan  S. Korea   Singapore Malaysia Phillipines Indonesia Viet-Nan   India UK/EURO Russia/E. Europe Mexico Argentina Brazil

Global central banks monetary policy makers, financial, capital markets, CEO, executives, investors book your strategic workshops for your 2004 strategy email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
OSA for US and 2004 global economic recovery Forecasts : Dr. Huang warned on Asian Business Forum Asset Backed Securitization that US , China housing, auto overheted facing bubble burst. risks Oct. 2002. He warned again on Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital Market conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, speak to China economic members annual meeting Dec 20, 2003 and on this website that accurately predicted US will repeat 1999-2000 bubble burst /deflation , with current recovery peaking out third quarter 2003 (GDP 8.3 % ,consumer, spending, money supply growth at 8 %, commodity index reach 19 year high, metal, fibers, oil prices doubled, ISM over 66, productivity at 9.5 % are inflationary and unsustainable, dollar plunge,( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) inflationary already leading to 19 year high in commodity oil prices, soaring housing, equities prices, wealth effect bubble burst in post election, raise interest rate by yearend, 2004 or later ,facing slowdown ( 3 % GDP ) by year end, now, China Jan whole sales prices up 6.7%, consumer prices up 5.7 % will continue credit tightening, as China People's bank cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
He also accurately predicted to Sept. 30 2002, Asian Business Forum ABS conference in Kuala Lumpur that Global economy facing uneven development due to excessive money supply growth ( misguided by the supply side economy, money supply growth equals to GDP and inflation, rates , tax cuts, fiscal stimulus resulted overheated housing, auto demand and soaring housing, oil, commodities, food prices in US, China, Korea, Australia, Canada, UK, Spain, while the rest of the manufacturing still facing deflation pressure, US housing refinancing loan demand plunged 70 % to one year low as mortgage rate follow 10 year bond yield rebound 1.5 %Freddie Mac scandal in the housing bubble and China housing, banking, auto stocks plunged 30-50 % due to China Peoples banks concerned on excessive loan demand (23 % increase ) UK, Australia, Canada already raised rate fighting asset bubble, China raised banking reserve ratio from 6 to 7 %
Monetary Policy on inflation, GNP and economic indicators for sustainable growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth, exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate, exchange rate
Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
US market analyst, economist over-optimistic again over second half and 2004 recovery due to 13 rate cuts, July tax rebate provided 7 % consumer spending rebound and retail sales with 8.2 % GDP , 17 % export growth and manufacturing purchaser manager index rebound to 61, ignoring Dr. Huang predicted and warned here again early Nov. that global economist and market analyst treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring US lost 117,000 jobs and 26,000 new jobless claim Jan. 2004, despite 112,000 new jobs added, jobless rate drop to 5.6 and global high unemployment will drag consumer confidence and stock prices 10% correction. and US dollar will plunge on soaring trade deficit due to soaring oil prices. US dollar plunge, oil prices soared dragging US and global stocks correction in late Sept., Nov. and extend into 2004
Despite US getting out of deflation by feed into the housing, auto bubble to save IT bubble recovery risks soaring asset prices resulted bubbles in second quarter 2004 after another tax rebate pushed Dow to 11300 , Nasdaq to 2100-2250 and pushed global stock to new high are overheated, must facing consolidation , as US soaring trade, budget deficit drag dollar to 105-against Yen and EURO to 1.29 soaring oil prices at 29-36 , will facing 10 % correction Dow retest 9750- 10,000 and Nasdaq retest 1750- 1900 , S&P retest 1000- 1100 due to high unemployment and weak job market excess capacity , excessive US and global money supply growth already causing overheated housing commodity markets , interest rate rebound., weakening housing demand and prices in 2005, repeat 2000 post election bubble burst.
US consumer demand, durable good order and consumer confidence will be facing correction during the first quarter 2004, as ISM plunge to 60, consumer spending down to 3.5 %
US economy GDP will be peaking in the second quarter at 5.5 % and slowdown to 3.3 % in the second half 2004, EURO only expect 1.5 % growth due to strong EURO and Japan growth dragged to 2 % by strong Yen. While Asian only expect 4.5 % growth due to China GDP slowdown to 7.5 %
Global stocks are limited to 10 % growth, with considerable downside risks.

OSA/US for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation
2003 US economic and market recovery and 2004 outlook:

US benefited by ending Gulf war in March and rate, tax cut in June, US consumer spending soared 7 % in the third quarter let to GDP up 8.3 % Dow Jones Soared from March bottom of 7200 to 9700. Nasdaq soared from 1200 to 2150 and 250,000 jobs added , unemployment rate drop from 6.2 % to 5.6 %to economics and market recovery, manufacturing ISM soared from 44 to 66 in December and consumer confidence over 100 bubbles , East and west coast housing prices up % since 1999 facing bubble burst with additional tax cut were overheated.

1998-2003 US economy, financial markets OSA, forecasts
These equations predicted 1998 winter US three interest rate cuts to 4.5 %, provide m2 money supply growth rate expanded to 10.5 %, and dollar plunge 20 % to boost export Dow stock index soared form 7200 to 9600, oil prices soared from 10 to 25, and provide 4 th quarter 1998 GNP 6 %. to prevent US from danger of deflation caused by Global Financial Crisis related credit crunch, it also predicted US 1993 deflation: money supply dropped to 1 % even the fund rate cut to 3 %, led to US GNP contracted to 3 %... US, inflation up to 3.5 %, GDP of 7.3 % in winter 1999 due to Y2K excessive money supply lead to Dow soaring to 11400, Nasdaq doubled to 5100, these wealth effect further pushed consumer spending to 8 % and tripled oil prices at 37 in 2000 , soaring property prices 4 th quarter 2000 GDP slowdown to 1.1 % inflation still at 3.6 % despite Fed 6 interest rate hikes , However, it finally cooled off in 2001 second quarter quarter facing recession threat, forced Fed 11 rate cuts,911 drag US consumer spending decline 1. 3 % drag US into 1.4 % GDP contraction and trillion dollar tax cuts ,   auto industry no interest loan refinancing income pushed US consumer spending up 6 % despite business spending decline 13 % , inventory clearance led to production increase to meet holiday demand, NAPM up from 40 to 54 ,, oil prices soared from 16 to 26 in first quarter 2002 US GNP up 6 %, pulling US out of recession, However Dow Jones already up 25 % from it's bottom of 8200 to 10600, Nasdaq up 40 % from 1350 to 2020, well ahead of the economy, old economic stocks, small cap bubbles and semiconductors bubbles burst again in the second quarter 2002 as consumer spending slowdown to 2 % Dr Huang accurately predicted last Dec on this website that economist, market analysts and corproate CFO overoptimistic over earning estimate like IBM , GE, MSFT, NOK, Citigroup, Xerox, TYCO and others blue chips, that MMM, IBM will plunge below 100 to test 80., MSFT to 48 , TYCO to 10 and Citigroup will be hurt by Argintina currenty crisis(Argentia closing banks, FX market),and economic slowdown in the current quarter WCOM, MRK, Johnson accounting malpractices and corporate profit warning, restatement downward due to   expensing stock option   caused plunging investors confidence and decline in consumer confidence. SEC probe leading to more corporate scandal in the week ahead . High Unemployment at 6 %, will cut into second half income by 18 %, despite bullish forecasts earning rebound, plunging dollar from 134 to 115 already led FDI outflow 15 %, plunging consumer, investors confidence, led to Dow crash to below 911 low of 8000 , Nasdaq to 1300, SP500 to 860. Fortunately, weak dollars will boost manufacturing export 15 % and profit, spending in the month ahead. which will lead to modest economic and stock market recovery after Dow Jones consolidation in 7500- 8000, Nasdaq 1250-1350 SP in 800-850, US economy is only supported by low interest rate loan supported by housing markets wealth and 911 drag US consumer spending decline 1. 3 % US into 1.4 % GDP contraction. 11 rate cut to 1.75 % and trillion dollar tax cuts , auto industry no interest loan refinancing income and continued US stockmarket rally since Sept. produced wealth effect pushed US consumer spending up 6 % in last quarter 2001, and 6.1 GDP growth first quarter 2002. despite business spending decline 5 % , inventory clearance led to production increase to meet holiday demand, NAPM up from 40 to 56, pulling US out of recession, However, Dr Huang accurately predicted last Dec on this website that economist, market analysts and corproate CFO overoptimistic over earning estimate like IBM , GE, MSFT, NOK, Citigroup, Xerox, TYCO and others blue chips, that MMM, IBM will plunge below 100 to test 80., MSFT to 48 , TYCO to 10 and Citigroup will be hurt by Argentina currency crisis(Argentia closing banks, FX market),and economic slowdown in the current quarter WCOM, MRK, Johnson accounting malpractices and corporate profit warning, restatement downward due to expensing stock option   caused plunging investors confidence and decline in consumer confidence. SEC probe leading to more corporate scandal in the week ahead . High Unemployment at 6 %, will cut into second half income by 18 %, despite bullish forecasts earning rebound, plungeing dollar from 134 to 115 already led FDI outflow 15 %, plunging consumer, investors confidence, led to Dow crash to below 911 low of 8000 , Nasdaq to 1300, SP500 to 860. Fortunately, weak dollars will boost manufacturing export and profit, spending in the month ahead. which will lead to modest economic and stock market recovery after Dow Jones consolidation in 7000- 8000, Nasdaq 1000- 1250 SP in 700- 800, lead to Asian, Euro stocks 30 % correction in the second half recovery lead to Asian, Euro stocks 15 % recovery simulation chart , more results can be found on Dr. Huang's full investment/supply chain workshops
  OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops Tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent?of?assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com
====Strategic China QFII/QDII Capital Market, investment banking, asset management workshops 2004=====
Due to increasing demand for Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of two master hands controlling global economy and capital market prices.( Nobel Prize dream) Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic OSA simulators reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII investment needs, He offered thousands TV, radio lectures , wrote thousands articles on daily newspaper, investment journals to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US 15 cities investors, VIP traders, money managers and hundreds QFII/QDII banking, securities , asset management companies CEO, executives and corporate CFO since 1985., His OSA simulators tracking the causes, onset, recovery of Asian, global financial crisis, bubble bursts, NPL loan, invited to speak to 24 US, Asian, European central bank governors conferences and million government, central banks, banking, securities, investment banking corporate executives , universities visited this website tracking accurately daily capital market prices since 1998     He will offer monthly workshops in Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong, Taipei, providing the latest strategic China investment, NPL asset management, risks hedging for US, Asian, European banking, finance, investment
Book your workshops and corporate sponsorships early for open seminar or your in-house workshops osawhh@citiz.net
====Global ( China, US, Taiwan, Asian, European) Central Banks monetary policy , Daily Open Market Operations impact on capital market asset prices bubbles, wealth effect early warning Simulation since 1985 =====
Hundred thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time shown on this website the most reliable global central banks monetary policy, daily open market operations impact on stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation sample charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index
E. US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on YEN exchange rate
detail analysis can be found in Dr. Huang recent lecture and in-house workshops.
*==== Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==========
== China Finance, Capital Market Summit Conference/in-house workshops ====
====Singapore 2004 Global Wealth Management Conference /in house workshops   =========
You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Global Wealth Management conference keynote speech and half day workshop on wealth effect bubble early warning, wealth management, risks hedging management Mar- 23, 25, 2004, Grand Hyatt. Singapore
He will offer in-house /open ( sponsored )workshops for US banking, finance, QFII executives
Jan 20-Feb 5, 2004, reserve by wh3928@yahoo.com
========================================================
He was well received by 600 China QFII/QDII at Shanghai lectures to Euro-Events China Finance and Capital Market SUMMIT conference and booth at Grand Ballroom , 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel, Nov. 25 and Beijin Nov. 27 to China government regulation, banking, finance , QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO im pact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  He demonstrated his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening , predicted Shanghai A rebound from 1305 to 1550 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries by reservation osawhh@citiz.net   or wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 and Dec. 20 to Peking University Chine economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University on Strategic China Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China capital market industrial sectors market forces in market economy, demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management
He will offer Shangh ai full day in house CEO/CFO fina ncial managers China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices mechanism SUMMIT workshop
=== Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang lectured to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market SUMMIT conference Nov.5 three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation osawhh@citiz.net   or wh3928@yahoo.co
========= Shanghai Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==============
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on Strategic China Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform and to Euro-events Asian Finance and Capital Markets summit conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian economic outlook, capital market opportunities and challenges, introducing OSA simulation models on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China capital market industrial sectors market forces in market economy, demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management
He will offer Shanghai full day in house CEO/CFO fina ncial managers China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops Feb-March, 2004
======Special Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985
Thousands structural dynamic OSA futures, option prices simulators tracking forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April 2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net /wh3928@yahoo.com
====== Singapore Asia Euro-Events Conference/in-house workshops Announcement =======
Dr. Huang lectured Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market conference Nov.5, 2003 three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, wealth managers, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management He will offer full day in house CEO/CFO workshops in Singapore March 26-30, 2004
Other Asian countries by reservation osawhh@citiz.net   or wh3928@yahoo.com
What is wrong with US and global economic recovery , Wall Street and global financial market
Why markets crash 30 % -90 % ? Where is the bottom ? What Wall Street need ?
How to predict the unpredictable global economic cycles, financial markets ?

Government reform, strategic monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro economic, financial market prices stability , asset prices, bubbles simulation, early warning l
Executives Workshops

by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA

The leader in Global Strategic Management Simulation
Millions global government, banking, finance, state, medium enterprises, multinationals CEO, CFO,investment bankers, money managers, supply chain logistics executives joined global strategic OSA public and In-House executives workshops since 1984. These executives bring their daily problems to the workshops take home strategic solution avoid trillion dollar market loss, saved billions dollar supply chain costs ready to implement.
He offered thousands daily tracking, analysis lectures during China run away inflation and Asian financial crisis ( 1994- 98) for 30 million China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program investors, banking, finance executives. He provide daily global economy, financial market investment, supply chain strategy on www.osawh.com for millions US, Asian, European, global government, banking, finance, enterprises executives visitors tracking daily forecasts since 1998.
He pioneered and develop, implemented thousands information knowledge based strategic invest- ment, supply chain Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) dynamic decision simulators since 1984; tracking, forecast 1- 3 month ahead accurately last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on global macro economic boom and bust, daily capital market asset prices, provide root causes, onset, spread, recovery and early warning for global financial, energy, currency, asset bubble burst, corporate scandals, trillion market loss, NPL loan and the only reliable , independent decision policy and equities research tools for global executives decisions. results invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors, financial risk management, corporate governance, business, government strategy conference and 100 international chemical engineering, BPR process/ productivity improvement, optimal control conference in 50 countries.
He conducted teaching, research at National Taiwan, Tsinghwa, University, Tunghai university trained 1000 industrial economic, global strategic management, process simulation, control senior, graduate students tracking 100 countries macro/finance/industrial economics and lecturing China Tsinghua, Peking, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities Hua-zhon Science & Tech on economic management, Financial engineering, MIS, EMBA/CFA
He received his MS from Polytech Inst. of New York in Chemical Engineering, Optimal game simulation, control, Ph.D from Univ. of Oklahoma, in Chemical Engineering, Operations Research,
with Ph.D theses in Nonlinear Adaptive Kalman Filtering, stochastic control, with application to chemical reactors and macroeconomic control.
He has over 30 years development, implementation of global strategic investment, supply chain management for US Bechtel, Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum Stauffer Chemicals, Bailey network control US head quarters corporate finance, computer sciences department. and extended to Taiwan, China , Asian government, thousands banking finance, state, medium, small enterprises reform, investment, production, supply chain logistics change management, 300,000 importer/ exporters 100 countries currency, competitive pricing.
He patented " Improve Process by OSA ", in US Hydrocarbon Processing and develop, implemented 32 global strategic investment, supply chain systems, published on advanced control and information management handbook 1991- 2003 circulated to 82 countries and wrote thousands articles on US, Taiwan, China government, banking, economics, finance, industrials, trade journals, daily newspapers.

Central banking monetary policy impact simulation workshops for sustainable growth and prices stability
Goal:
monetary policy for sustainable growth and financial market asset prices stability predictive control ( not just consumer prices inflation)

Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predictive ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) for 40 countries tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 25 years global financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis feed-forward control to prevention overshooting, delay action , uneven economic development resulted asset bubbles overheating and trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your current policy impact on growth and prices stability OSA

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own policy impact OSA, tracking results have been presnted to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors conferences 1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website visited by million global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact Simulation on:
Why we have uneven economic development in regional, industries, How to use industrial finance simulation to avoid it
Macro economics :GDP, inflation, consumer, business spending, unemployment
Financial Economics/ financial market prices: interest rates, currency, stock indices
Industrial asset demand /prices: Housing, construction materials oil/ commodity prices, 20 industrial sector products prices.
Trade Economics: export/import/trade surplus/deficit, currency, competitive pricing market shares.
Optimal monetary policy control for sustainable growth and prices stability
The root causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of global currency, financial, energy, asset bubble burst crisis.
Who should attend: central banks chairman, regional governors, macro/financial/industrial/trade economic research, executives and banking, securities, insurance regulation executives, banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, investment bankers, money managers, economic policy planner, SOE, medium enterprises CEO, CFO, board members, auditing committee.
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office

Banking, Finance, Corporate Governance Reform, Scandals Early Warning
Financial Accounting Systems OSA Maximize Perfromance, Transparency

by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:
Strategic Corporate Governance Maximize Corporate Profit and board members, investors performance and financial accounting transparency.

Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictive control ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on corporate profit/loss financial statements, board members, investors for US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries; tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20 years global financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis resulted corporate accounting scandals to prevent market analyst, corporate executives speculation on inflated profits and hiding loss resulted stock price bubble resulted trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your financial accounting systems simulation and early warning supporting Sabarnes- Oxley Act audit, compensation committee, oversight board, government securities, banking, insurance regulation tracking possible fraud.

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits, board members, investors performance, transparency, tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on asset prices, bubble, cost and accounting system profit/loss simulation , tracking on and off balance sheet entities.
Corporate sales, earning OSA,
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, IPO performance OSA
Structural finance derivatives prices OSA
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, supporting Sarbanes-Oxley Act , securities, banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Case studies: tracking the root causes, onset, recovery of global corporate accounting scandals
US Enron, WCOM, TYCO, Global Crossing
China Guanxia, numerous high tech reform ST stocks
Taiwan Fertilizer, China Development Banks, Banks, Construction industries.
Who should attend: Accounting oversight board, banking, securities corporate CEO, CFO, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants, investment bankers..
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office

Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial sectors demand, asset prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profits, stock prices
Series One : Monetary policy impact on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong housing demand, prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profit strategic management workshops ( select your country )

                                     by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:

Strategic Housing investment, supply chain cost reduction maximize operating profits, investment return and minimize bubble burst resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan defaults

Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks corporate profits, stock prices investment, supply chain logistics cost performance.
Tracking ; forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20 years global housing bubble burst resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan asset and asset securitization risks
implement, recommend on your housing, finance, construction material investment, supply chain logistics cost reduction strategy
Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits at minimum risks
Tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003 and www.osawh.com thousands lectures to China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio station investors, hundreds banking, securities, real estate CEO, CFO, executives , wrote thousands articles on government, economics , banking industrial finance daily newpapers, journals tracking listed housing, mortgage banks, construction materials companies investment, supply chain cost, profits, investment strategy, website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO, stock market wealth effect impact on national, regional housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks asset prices, bubble, cost and profit/loss simulation , investment strategy
housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan demand, prices OSA
Global, national, regional housing, construction materials cost /prices, supply chain costs
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, Strategic Asset management, Asset/Mortgage backed securitization prices risks
Case studies: investment, supply chain cost, profit margin, stock prices, corporate scandals
The root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of properties NPL asset OSA
US mortgage companies Fannie Mai, Freddie Mac
Performances of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong listed housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, minimize investment, bubble burst risks early warning and support banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Who should attend: Housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks banking, securities, investment bankers corporate CEO, CFO, supply chain logistics managers , securities, insurance, banking regulation commission, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants.
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office
OSA simulation results accurately predicted monetary policy impact on US economy and financial market prices 2000-2003
Simulation of Greenspan's Speech OSA : July 16, 2002: state of US economy:
US economy continued recovery with manufacturing lead by Tech sectors out of recession, with increased production due to lean inventory. However consumer spending is hurt by plunging investors confidence due to corporate earning restatement downward revision to remove bubbles due to the impact of the fallout of last years recession, Dow Jones plunged below 8000, SP below 860, Nasdaq to 1350 . All of these have been simulated by our simulators
Aug. 24, 2000 on US productivity and inflation, July 20, July 25 2000 senate, house testimonys on monetary policy and state of the economy, Aug 27 1999 on Asset bubble burst , Oct. 14 on Financial Risk Management, Nov.3 , 99 and Feb 15 , 2000 on US soaring Stocks, Housing prices, low unemployment, fueling consumer and business demand, and this website warning that early 2001, US Dow Jones index will test 9100, Nasdaq will test 1500
and Apr 12, 2002 on Greenspan senate testimony indicating economic recovery and rising oil, recovery may led to rate hike later this year when the economy entering full steam recovery.
Interest rate hike threat: Inflation Simulation: Dr. Huang accurately predicted on CHina Peoples bank governor sponsored Global central Bank Governors conference in Macao, May 1999 that benefited by the wealth effect of Dow and Nasdaq rebound in May 1999, strong consumers demand for gasoline caused oil prices doubled from 10 to 22 in June 1999, resulted FED rate interest rate June-Aug 2000, pushed ,US Oct CPI, up 0.5 %. with annual inflation at 3.6 %, retail sales up 0.9 % AuG consumer spending rose 0. 6 %, pushed gasoline, crude oil , heating oil prices, housing, a prices to new high and boosted new home sales by 14 %Aug existing home sales up 9.5 % and record durable goods sales will reignite the inflation, push for more interest rate hike after Nov. election Greenspan spoke to Global economic Integration conference indicated short term optimism on US high productivity in the second quarter at 5.6 % ?leave some room for US growth. However, He cautioned that productivity may slowdown (already down to 3.3 % in the third quarter) ?as economic slowdown lead to production cuts due to high inventory builtup in the second quarter and tight labor, housing markets, soaring oil prices, may cause inflation while consumer spending push up demand lead to inflation accurately?predicted by Dr. Huang in economic, business cycle simulation surging consumer demand caused record oil and gasoline prices, wage rise to 4.4 %, continued consumer confidence, spending pushing retail, home sales overheat GDP up 5.2 %, unempolymen at 3.9 %,consumer spending retail sales picked up 0.5 % , credit growth slowed to 7.5 % from June 12.5 %
Soft landing recession recovery ( current and Jan 2003 )Simulation: Dr. Huang warned   early 2002 that   demand and prices for semiconductors are excessive will lead to excessive cost inventory bulitup SCM costs and price cutting in the second quarter, DRAM soared from 0.84 to 5 in the first quarter, plunged to 2.5 in May 2002)PC surge due to soaring consumers demand , in first quarter, 2002, in extrem low interest rate, tax cuts and no interest rate loan, Economic slowdown prices, sales earning decline in   second quarter 2002 ,lead by semiconductors, PC and third quarter
2001 Fed 11 rate cuts, 911 drag US consumer spending decline 1. 3 % drag US into 1.4 % GDP contraction and trillion dollar tax cuts ,   auto industry no interest loan refinancing income pushed US consumer spending up 6 % despite business spending decline 13 % , inventory clearance led to production increase to meet holiday demand, NAPM up from 40 to 54 , in 4 th quarter 2001 led US GNP up 1.4 %, pulling US out of recession, However Dow Jones already up 25 % from it's bottom of 8200 to 10300, Nasdaq up 40 % from 1350 to 2020, well ahead of the economy, the stockmarket gain resulted wealth effect, rate and tax cut led to strong US consumer demand pick up 6 % in the last quarter 2001, and 4 % in first quarter 2002, pushed gasoline prices from 50 to 82, oilp prices from 16 to 28, repeat 1999 summer, US inflation soared froom 1.6 to 3 %.
despite Greenspan empazised the economic recovery, ignoring inflation. However further oil prices rise in summer to 30as econimc recovers, Fed will be forced to start series rate hike as it did in 1999-2000. simulation chart , more results can be found on recent two full day China markets WTO investment/supply chain strategy workshops in Beijijn, Shanghai Nov 29-30, 2001, Jan 21-22 in Taipei, May 30-31-2002 in Beijin
US consumer demand impact on oil prices simulation forecast:
Crude oil Prices = F (US consumer demand, Gasoline, Fuel Oil Prices)
US Wtex oil prices soared from botom 16 to 28 as US consumers demand soared form Sept 2001 1.8 decline to 7 % in March 2001, (complicated by Mideast tension), pushed gasoline prices from 50 to 82, Heating oil prices from 50 to 70 as predicted by Dr. Huang's Oils Upstream/Downstream profit management, SCM workshops in Apr. Singapore, Nov, 2001 in Beijin, Jan in Taipei, 2002
As US entering peak gasoline demand season, will push gasolinie prices to 75-90, heating oil to 60-75 and Wtex oil prices 25-30
US and global inflation = F( US consumer demand, Oil, commodity prices, US dollar exchange rate)
US and global inflation rate will rise in the month ahead as economy recover, US rising consumers and gasoline demand will push oil prices and inflation rate up will lead global rate hike in the final quarter this year, US Fed rate will be back to 2 %