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osawh.com
Global Financial Markets Prices Simulation and Crisis, Risks Management
Panel Discussion and Tutorial Sessions
Website : www. osawh.com
email whuang@osawh.com / wh3928@yahoo.com FAX: 1-510-524-4484
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, and others OSA
Int'l Operations Analysis, San Francisco,Ca. 94108 USA
Fax: 1-510-524-4484 E-Mail Add. whuang@osawh.com
1. Workshop Scope:
12 tutorial or panel session series will be organized for financial industry and the
academics to introduce the methodology and application of Knowledge based Global Financial
Markets OSA(Operations Simulations Analysis) and Risk Management Systems, to real time
tracking, simulation of daily( every 5 minutes) US, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong and US,
EUropean Asia financial and products market interaction, which pinpoints each
financial market crisis beforehand by tracking ,simulating the global central bankers
daily money supply and it's impact on macro economic GNP, inflation and trade economics,
commodities, industrial raw materials, products demand and prices, financial economics
interest rates, currency exchange rates and corporate operating margins, online trading of
US, European, ASEAN, Asian pacific stocks and bonds, commodities and financial future and
derivatives(call/put option, warrants) prices. These simulation systems have been
developed, implemented by the lecturer Dr. Warren Huang, Who have written thousands of
articles and newsletter and on nationwide TV, radio in Taiwan, US, successfully predicted
the global financial market normal day to day operations and major crisis avoided the
trillion dollars loses take advantage of the investment opportunities during 1987 stock
crash, 1992 European currency crisis, 1994 China inflation, financial crisis, 1995 US bond
and financial derivatives investment loss ,due to betting on the wrong side of Fed fund
rate, 1995 Barring Brother bankruptcy due to betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index
with average error below 1.5 % and last year's Asian Financial Crisis(tracking published
results )
Lecturer Dr. Huang accurately predicted
on his website osawh.com on July 20 1998 Warned US Dow, high prices high tech and finance
stocks and global stocks and dollar overpriced, ready for 20 % correction. Greenspan
remarks next day about the stock, properties market overheat, took Dow and global Stock
and dollar plunge 10-20 % Dr
Huang preicted again in January 2000, on www.sina.com
aad this website that US internet, IT, iPO biotech bubble will burst, will crash 50- 90 %
as in Hong Kong style, Nasdaq will retest 2800- 3000. He recommended in April to buy
oversold IT, buiotech shares as Nasdaq near 3000, It doubled in June
Session 1 Global Macro, Financial, Trade, Industrial Economics Simulation and Review, forecast of current Russia, Asian , South American Financial Crisis and recovery
A. OSA neural net, AI based approach to global
economics and financial markets interaction simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, South American, European, US central bankers monetary policy,
impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrials economics, money, currency, stock
index and corporate stocks
C. Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 2 Asian, Russia financial crisis, recovery impact on US money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment strategy
Lecturer Dr. Huang accurately predicted on his website osawh.com on July 20 Warned US Dow, high prices high tech and finance stocks and global stocks and dollar overpriced, ready for 20 % correction. Greenspan remarks next day about the stock, properties market overheat, took Dow and global Stock and dollar plunge 10-20 %
A. OSA Neural net approach to Asian, Russia and US
economics and financial markets interaction simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, central bankers, US Fed monetary policy, impact on Asian, Russia
macro, financial, trade, industrials economics, money, currency, stock, bond, commodities
futures markets ,Information, biotech, finance industries merger/acquisitions performances
and investment strategy
C. Case studies : US Investments opportunities and risk management strategy)tracking result on osawh.com)
IBM stocks prices and call/put option simulation
for 20 time profits during June-July1998
Short Global stock index future on July 20, for triple profit
And buy Biogen, for 70 % price appreciation in two weeks
Session 3 ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South American Financial Crisis, recovery Impact on ASEAN, Pacific money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment
A. OSA approach to ASEAN macro economics and
financial(money, currency) markets interaction simulation
B Tracking ASEAN (Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia)and global central bankers
monetary policy, impact on macro, financial, trade, industrials economics, money,
currency, stock index, commodities futures, corporate earning and stock markets investment
C. ASEAN Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 3a ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South American Financial Crisis Impact on Australia money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment
Lecturer Dr. Huang accurately predicted on his website osawh.com on July 20 Warned US Dow, high prices high tech, finance stocks and global stocks and dollar overpriced, ready for 20 % correction. Australin All ordinare index will be traded between 2400 and 2650. Gold and energy prices start rebound in Spet. Due to weaker dollar. Greenspan remarks next day about the stock, properties market overheat, took Dow and global Stock and dollar plunge 10-20 %, gold follow crude oil price rebound as dollar falls.session 4 Asian Financial Crisis Impact on India money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment strategy
A. OSA approach to Asian Pacific (Japan, Australia,
New Zealand) and India macro economics and financial (money, currency )markets interaction
simulation
B Tracking US, Asian Pacific Central bankers monetary policy, impact on India macro,
financial, trade, industrials economics, money, currency, stock, , stock index futures
markets investments
C. India Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 5 Asian Financial Crisis Impact on China
money, currency, Shanghai, Shenzhen corporate earning, stocks prices investment strategy
A. OSA approach to Asian and China macro economics and financial markets interaction
simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, European, US, China central bankers monetary policy, impact on
China macro, financial, trade, industrials economics, money, currency, Shanghai, Shenzhen
corporate earning, merger/acquisition and stock investments strategy
C. China Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 6 Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Hong
Kong finance and properties corporate earning, blue and red chips stocks investment
strategy
A. OSA approach to Asian, US and Hong Kong economics, financial markets interaction
simulation
B Tracking Asian, Hong Kong, US central bankers monetary policy, impact on Hong Kong
macro, financial, trade, industrials economics, money, currency, Henseng index and
corporate stock prices
C. Hong Kong blue and red chips stocks Investments opportunities and risk management
strategy
Session 7 Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Taiwan finance, computer/IC corporate earning, stock prices and index futures investment strategy
Lecturer Dr. Huang accurately predicted on his website osawh.com on July 20 Warned US Dow, Taiwan high prices high tech and finance stocks and global stocks and dollar overpriced, ready for 20 % correction. Greenspan remarks next day about the stock, properties market overheat, took Dow and global Stock and dollar plunge 10-20 %Session 8 Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Japan
money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment strategy
A. OSA approach to global and Japan macro economics and financial markets interaction
simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, Japan, US central bankers monetary policy, impact on Japan
macro, financial, trade, industrials( supply, demand, prices) economics, money, currency,
corporate earning, stock prices and derivatives markets prices movement.
C. Japan high tech and auto industry Investments opportunities and risk management
strategy
Session 9 Asian and Russian Financial Crisis Impact on European, ECU money, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures investment strategy
A. OSA approach to European, ECU economics and
financial markets interaction simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, ECU, European, US central bankers monetary policy, impact on
ECU(German, France, Italy, Sweden, Swiss) and UK macro, financial, trade, industrials
economics, money, currency, corporate outlook, and high-tech, auto, energy stock prices
C. ECU, European Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 10 Asian and Russian Financial Crisis on Mexico, Canada and South American money, currency, stocks, markets investment strategy
A. OSA approach to US, Asian, Canada, Mexico, South
America macro economics and financial money, currency markets interaction simulation
B Tracking US, Asian, Canada, Mexico, South America central bankers monetary policy,
impact on Canada, Mexico, South America macro, financial, trade, industrials economics,
money, currency, stock markets
C. Canada, Mexico, South America Investments opportunities and risk management strategy
Session 11 Asian, Russia financial cirrus impact on
global commodities, industrial raw material and consumer products prices, procurement,
investment strategy
A. OSA approach to global economics and financial markets interaction simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, European, US central bankers monetary policy, impact on global
macro, financial, trade, commodities, industrials raw materials, products prices
C. Global commodities, raw materials, products Investments, procurement opportunities and
risk management strategy
Session 12 Asian, Russian Financial Crisis Impact on Global Commodities Futures, Financial derivatives investment and risk management strategy
A. OSA neural net approach to global macro
economics and financial money, currency markets interaction simulation
B Tracking Asian, Russia, European, US central bankers monetary policy, impact on global
interest rate, currency, energy, metal, feedgrain commodities, financial futures prices
simulation and hedging risk management
C. OSA integrated improved Nobel winning Black-School stock index, currency, interest
rate, stock call/put options, warrants prices simulation and investment and hedging risk
management strategy
D. Tracking results, case studies (recommended by osawh.com website during June-Aug.):
Dr. Huang has been invited to speak to QFM(computational option,financial derivatives
methods conference in Syney, Australia, Dec 15-16 on Asian Financial Crisis impact on
options, financial derivatives.
IBM stocks prices and call/put option simulation
for 20 time profits
Short Global stock index future on July 20, for triple profit
Long gold and crude oil on weaker dollar in Aug.
Who should attend: Global corporate CEO, CFO,
financial analysis, institutions, bankers, fund managers, stock/bond/ financial/
commodities and derivatives trader, academic teaching/researchers
Workshop site: your office, Date: reservation email whuang@osawh.com
, fax 1-510-524-4484 one month ahead
Workshop Costs: US$ 100, per person per session.
Lecturer Qualification
Dr. Warren Huang, the OSA pioneer and program manager, supported by his 32 years
development and implementation of Global Corporate/plant and financial markets Operations
Simulations Analysis (OSA, an extension of decision analysis applied extensively US
aerospace industries using artificial intelligence pattern recognition, filtering, control
for the Apollo moon landing tracking, mission control) for on the job training for US
Bethel, Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Fluor headquarters, and
offered 500 workshops and TV, radio programs to 20 million Taiwan, China, US , Asian
Pacific and global CEO, by CFO, fund manager, traders, investors and technical staff , on
the job training for Taiwan, China's government, state and private enterprises and
directed over 1000 senior economics, chemical engineering, strategic management students
in Taiwan, China's top universities tracking 100 IMF countries central bankers monetary
policy, simulate it's impact on interest rate, exchange rates, commodities futures prices,
developed 100 refinery, petrochemicals, biotech drug, process design, operation
simulation, corporate profitability, stock prices simulation analysis.
He extended his Ph.D. dissertation in nonlinear adaptive stochastic process filtering and control to econometric, Global Financial Market Operations simulation in 1972. through applying artificial intelligence's neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithm, integrating monetary economic theory, government policy, into real time investors, markets analyst, markets regulation, information and psychology by tracking last 12 years weekly US Fed and global central bankers money supply and simulate it's impact on real time (up to the minutes) interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, raw material and products demand and prices, corporate operating margin, stocks, bond, commodities futures, financial derivatives Prices and capital investment, risk management,
OSA Tracking Results
The pioneer of Global Financial markets OSA, Dr. Warren Huang has written thousands papers
and newsletters and spoke on Taiwan, China nationwide TV, radio to 20 millions US, Taiwan,
China's financial institution, CEO, CFO, fund managers, traders, investors, universities
researchers in applying these OSA based Global Financial Markets simulation, forecasts. He
predicted daily real time (5 minutes trade) major crisis since 1987 stock crash (US Dow
Jones from 650 to 9337, Nikkei from 8000 to 38000, Taiwan Index from 650 to 12800, Sensing
from 5000 to 16800, Shanghai index from 500 to 1650, whale the global markets subjects to
various regulation, information and structures changes.), European, Asian) with average
error below 1.5 %. . Warned the Wall Street in Mar. 1994 on stock and bond setback due to
the rising interest rates, while everyone betting on the falling rate, caused billion
dollars loses. And . predicted on China's speech to brokerage CEO, and When, Shanghai,
Beijing, Shenzhen news securities, and nationwide TV, radio program that China Shanghai
index rebound from 333 to 960, and 1996 bull market from 530 to 1600 (enclosed and
predicted that Taiwan index will be slump three times to 4500 and rebound, on Taiwan's TV
programs and investment journal, daily new papers in 1995 missile crisis paper published
on Taiwan's daily newspapers
Take the recent Asian Financial Crisis for instance, this Global Financial Market Simulations systems warned the fund manager about overheated stocks markets in Taiwan, Hong Kong in last Aug. due to the deckling trade surplus in Taiwan, Growing deficit in Hong Kong and Korea, the market will plunge due to falling currency and/ or rising interest rate, recommend to stay in cash.
The Hong Kong Henseng plunged to 10000 in Oct, and crashed to 7900 in Nov., with blue chips down 60 %, red chips plunged 80 %, due to rising interest rate, while Taiwan stock index plunged to 8000 in Oct. and crashed to 7000 in Nov, electronic shares plunged 60 %, due to NT depreciated 25 %, while the Korean Seoul index crashed to 340, due to Won depreciated from 800 to 2100 and rising interest rate, However Nov. Taiwan and China investment workshop, recommend to buy at the rebound, the stock prices gained more than 60 % to double. Dr Huang predicted on Jul 20, 1998 on his website that Dow at 9300 and global stock markets are overheated, fail to considers Asian crisis impact on earning to cooloff the markets, it will face 15 % correction to 8000., Yen will go down to 149, Taiwan, Henseng index will test 7000, Russia stock will be down to 150. The Dow Jones and global financial markets slump after Greenspan's July 21 remarks on Asian financial crisis and US economy did exactly as he predicted on the website.
References:
Dr. Warren Huang has been invited to
speak to the following top 20 global cewntral banks governors, financial managment,
business, government strategyic financial crisis and risk managment
conferences in 1998-2000
1. Invited by NASD, American Futures Association, George Mason , George Washington Univ
sponsored Washington Area Finance research Conference, Apr. 30, 1999, speak on Monetary
Policy Impact on Global Financial Crisis and Risk management
2. Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Post EURO financial and banking strategy,
speak to J P Morgen? and University of Rome? on finance and banking conference in Rome
Italy, Nov. 24-25, 1998
3 Speak on Global Financial , Banking Crisis and Risk management to China Peoples Bank,
Monetary Authority of Macau sponsored Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy
for Sustainable Growh in Macau, on May 15
4. Pacific Basin Finance and Economic Conference in Taipei(Sponsored by Taiwan Futures
Assiciation, Finance ministry, Central bank, National Taiwan University May 28-29, 1999,
to speak on Financial Crisis impact on Pacific stock and financial derivatives ? markets
5. European Finance conference on June 3 speak on Global financial crisis impact on
EURO capital markets
and session chairman for risks in the int'l context , invited by Prof. David Walker,
Global Capital Markets Research Center Director of Georgetown University to a special
panel on emerging markets economy and crisis on June in European finance conference in
Barcelona, Spain.
6. USDA, dept. agricultural government economics research service? conference on Business
and Government Strategy, Capital Hilton in Washington DC on June 30, to speak to the joint
global financial crisis session and panel discussion on Global financial crisis impact on
Government and business global risk management strategy. Dr. Huang together with World
Bank, IMF director, Oxford Economics president, S&P DRI, director and , US
Agricultural Asian and Western Chief, Senior economist, Goldman and Sachs.
7. Midwest Finance conference in Nashville on Mar. 28, session chairman on investment to
speak on Global Financial Crisis Impact on Global financial markets prices, risk
management,
8.To? Multinational Finance Society Conference, Torono, July 7, on "Global Financial
Crisis Impact on Multinational Performance and Risk Management"
9 Royal Statistical Society, UK, Risk Systems Simulation Conference, Warwick, UK, July,
14, 1999
10. ICCG Global financial crisis conference, Bankok, Thailand, Oct. 22, 1999, speak on
" Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery"? and " How
China avoided Asian Crisis, achieving growth and stability"
10.8 th? Pacific economic and finance conference , Bankok, Thailand,? June 1, 2000, speak
on " Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery"? ? speak to Thai
prime minister, ASEAN, TAiwan central banks governors
11. Japan APEC? Studies conference Tokyo , Japan, Dec. 15, 1999, speak on " Monetary
Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery"?
13.Simulation of Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Global Financial Markets prices
performance Speak to EC2 econometrics Forecast conference in Stockholm Dec19,1998 ( UK and
Swedish school of economics
12.Asian Financial crisis impact on financial derivatives prices simulation and hedging
risk management, speak to QFM 98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives
conference, in Sydney, Australia, Dec. 16 , 1998
Dr. Huang also conducted university teaching, research, trained thousands economics,
strategic management information, biochemical engineering senior, graduate students in OSA
applications. He has written thousands of articles, newsletters tracking these results,
invited to 32 countries 80 int'l conferences and speak to 20 millions TV , radio
audiences? offered thousands global investment,? corporate? reengineering, TQM, cost
reductions,trades workshops for CEO, CFO, managers in Taiwan, China, Asian Pacific, US and
European.
He wrote over 1000 Chinese articles in Taiwan, and China daily news papers,? government,
banking, finance, investment? journals
Click here for lists of? over 1000 Chinese articles published in Taiwan and China during
1980-1999
References?:? partial lists of papers, Dr. Huang presented to the 100 int'l economic
management, corporate restructuring, information technology, global strategic management,?
TQM cost reduction, productivity management, process improvement and network control,
Biotech Anti-cancer, anti-aging conferences ? 1980-1999.:
1.Huang,W."Improve process by OSA", Hydrocarbon Processing, May 1980
2 Huang,W."Integrated Refinery/Petrochemicals Management Information & Strategic
Management System-
3Huang, W Refinery of the 1990's",presented to INTERPEC CHINA SEPT
10,1991,Beijing,China.
4 Huang W." Computer Integrated Plant Management", Advanced Control Handbook VI,
HP, Sept. 1991, p. 59
5 Huang W. "Refinery Optimization and and Control", presented to INTERPEC China
91, Beijing, Sept. 12,1991.
6. Huang,W." Decision Supported Refinery CIM', Advanced Control Handbook Hydrocarbon
Processing, Sept,1992, 1993
7. Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Maximize Refinery, Olefin Plant Productivity,
Flexibility", Oct. 12, 1991, Oct. 6, 1995 Antwerpan, Belgium Large Chemical Plant
conf. by European Chemical Engineering
11.Huang, W. " Operations Simulations Decisions Supported TQM Maximize Productivity
and Flexibility" to Quality and Productivity Conf by Hydrocarbon Processing ,Feb, 25,
1993, Houston,
12. Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Supported Reengineering Maximize Refinery and
Chemical Plant Productivity and Flexibility", May 20,. , 1995,Beijin, China. By
AchemAsia
13Huang,W.,"OSA Maximize Styrene Productivity, Flexibility, OGJ.Mar.1983.
14 Huang,W "Energy and Resource Conservation in Chemical Process Design &
Operation",World Congress III, Tokyo,Oct.1,1986
15.Huang,W.,"Financial, Macroeconomic Impact on Int'l Petrochemical prices, demand,
Trade" ,to WorldCongress III, Oct. 1986, Tokyo
16.Huang,W.,"OSA based education and on the job training ", to World Congress
III, Oct. 1986,Tokyo.
17.Huang,W."International Petrochemicals Management Information System Structure and
Operating Goals", toAIChE, Mar.19, 1990, Orlando.
18Huang,W.,"OSA expert systems based training simulators" ,to World Congress IV,
Karsrule, Germany, Sept. 1991
19Huang, W. " Operations Simulations Decisions Supported TQM Maximize Productivity
and Flexibility" to Quality and Productivity Conf by Hydrocarbon Processing ,Feb, 25,
1993, Houston,
20 Xiao Min Ji, Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Supported Reengineering Maximize
Corporate Productivity and Flexibility",Presented to World Econmic Management Conf.
July 20 , 1997,Shanghai, China.
21.Xiao Min Ji, Huang, W. "OSA supported Global Strategic Management", Presented
to World Economic Management Conf. July 20, 1997, Shanghai, China. Huang, W.
"Asian Financial Crisis impact on options and Financial derivatives Simulation and
Risk Managementt", to be presented to QFM98, Sydney, Australia, Dec. 15-16 , Huang,
W. "Global Financial Markets Simulation and Risk Managementt", Presented to
World Economic Management Conf. July 20, 1997, Shanghai, China. Huang, W. "Asian
Financial Crisis Simulation and Risk Management",to be presented to Economic
Simulation Conf. July 20 , 1998 Lyon University, Lyon, France,"OSA for Int'l
Petrochemical Marketing and Sales", Presented to AIChE Diamond Jubilee Meeting in
Washington DC,Oct. 30,1983..,"Financial and Macroeconomic Impact on Int'l
Petrochemical prices,demand,Trade",to World Congress III,Oct. 1986,Tokyo , ASEAN
petroleum ministers conference in Singapore, 1989. Huang, W. "Glob Financial Markets
Simulation", Nice, France, 1984, Torr, Conn, USA, 1985, Sorrento, Italy, 1986,
Pomona, Cal. 1987, SHenzhen , Oct. 1989, Oct, 1990, Dalian China, Oct, 1991, Beijin,
Houston, ISA, Oct. 1993, Wuhan, China, Oct. 1995, Hanchow, China, Oct. 1996, Belgium,
1991,1995, Houston, 1993,
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