osawh.com    2000-2003  IT bubble burst tracking results ( 3 month ahead)
中文 (Chinese)  Global Stocks Prices, Bubbles, Bottoms, Bear/Bull OSA forecasts
Welcome  to China and Global  Capital Markets, Debt, Equities, Properties  Asset Pricing Operations Simulations Analysis,  Risks Simulation, Corporate governance Scandals  Early Warning ( Chinese, English)
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Excessive money supply lead to 7 year global expansion resulted high tech, properties asset bubble bursts, manufacturing oversupply, plunging profits and stock prices and trillion dollar nonperformance in Japan, China, Taiwan banking industry and mounting home and auto loan defaults, credit card delinquency in Hong Kong, US, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia , lead to huge write-off loss and to maintain Basles 's capital ratio.
China Asset management is working on 430 billion , Japan is working on 430 billion bad loan, Taiwan banks write off 0.3 trillion bad loan last year and 0.2 trillion the first half this year.
Asset Management bought the bad loan working hard to recover the loan loss through auction, securitization all facing tough time in current turbulent financial markets. while the existing banking industry sold the old bad loan to asset management co or write off the old loan are facing new bad loan due to asset bubble bursts.
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will organize NPL asset management workshops for global banking industry offer his 30 years experience in tracking, simulating. :monetary, economic, fiscal policy tracking , simulate the causes, onset, recovery of these bad loan and maximize the recovery, providing the pre-warning, risk hedging to prevention future bad loan happening.
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Goal: Provide competitive  nonperformance asset bid/auction pricing to maximize asset return, price recovery at minimum asset procurement costs and default risks
Mission: Structural dynamic deterministic simulators developed out of extensive historic information knowledge base, tracking, forecast monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economy, financial market prices, debt, equities, properties  asset prices, provide good timing and competitive  auction pricing  to minimize procurement  costs,  trillion dollar market loss, default risks, maximize asset  investment return,  sells recovery ratio,
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Dr. Huang  accurately predicted US and global stock bottom during Nov 2002 and March 2003 and rebound in second quarter 2003 on  lecture to Asian Business Forum's  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global trillion dollar nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement , investment costs and credit defaults risks  due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle, financial crisis integration, interaction  impact on interest, currency,industrial demand, prices,  the causes, onset, history , recovery of  of nonperformance  asset bubble bursts, default maximize  investment return,  auction  resell , syndicated loan  value recovery, workshops by  thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial engineering, structural  finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset Management, Credit defaults risks control on this website
He will offer   in-house workshops in Asia   reserve :email   wh3928@yahoo.com =======================================================================================Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on May 28-29 , 2002  Peking University global finance conference Beijin that US facing recession, Dow Jones blue chips, old economy stocks, Asian, European stocks, mutual fund overheated, ready for 30 %-50 %  correction till Dec-2002-March 3002. but China Shanghai A  oversold at 1450 will rebound to 1730
He demonstrated OSA simulators for tracking, simulate, forecast the root causes, onset, recovery of global nonperformance loan, credit defaults( Bubble Burst impact on ENRON, WCOM, Guanxia stock prices, credit rating and  Taiwan banks nonperformance loan, banks performance, stock prices, and Citigroup, JP Morgan nonperformance loan, stock prices simulation, Intel, CISCO, Taiwan Semiconductors P4, DRAM prices, stock prices and Japan high tech, auto, banking prices in corporate/ government shares buy  back strategy
Global government have stock market  stabilization fund, operated in the past to buy high quality share at Taiwan at  4500, 4000, 3500. Hong Kong also have stabilization fund buy share at Henseng index around 7000-8300 during the Asian crisis and recent market crash.
However, all these measure require reliable asset pricing decision tools for the timing and investment strategy during the global market slump
 Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts risks
You will find out all the answers in Dr. Warren Huang's speech prediction  on Global capital market asset prices, risk simulation in Beijin for Peking University's global finance conference on corporate governance May 28-29,2002 ,  Shanghai Jiaotung University,  May 28-29, 2003 and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Oct. 24-25, 2003,  Asian Business FOrum to Asian central banks, banking, securities, stock exchanges, accounting, lega executives in Kual Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002, and the following web page
and full day  workshops( Chinese, English) reservation   wh3928@yahoo.com  or just or  Dr. Huang's lecture notes, specify your industry sector, job titles, specific interests, so that we can tailor to your need. 

Two master hands controlling global financial markets, asset  prices, bubbles
Lectures/Workshops for Beijin Univsersity business and finance center organized Global Finance, Corporate Governance conference  May 28,2002 and to Guanhua school of management faculty and graduates for EMBA, CFA, business, financial research center  and other in-house workshops by appointment
           Dr. Warren Huang, Founder OSA Global Investing/ Int'l Operations Analysis
            website: www.osawh.com  email  wh3928@yahoo.com 
             presented to Global Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation
             9:00 AM- 10:30 AM May 28, 2002, Global Finance Conference
             at Fragrance Hill Hotel, Beijin sponsored by Peking University
           2:00 PM-5:PM, May 29 Guanhua School of Business, Peking University, Beijin,
                                                   Abstract
This work is part of author's 30 years global investment strategic risk management dynamics OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) experience. Which have been developed, implemented out of last 25 years global economic and daily financial markets stable, under stress crisis , bubble bursts data. These deterministic, state variable, artificial intelligence neural net based simulators have been tracking, predicted global central bank monetary , economic, fiscal policy  impact on last 25 years global inflation, major economic indicators, interest rates, currency, stocks, (right master hand) bond, commodities futures and derivatives, housing properties old and new economy oils, IT upstream/ downstream  industrial demand, prices associated macro economics imbalance bubble bursts , industrial sectors supply, demand, commodity prices, old and new economy corporate earning, stock prices(left master hands), trillion dollar financial markets trading loses, properties markets nonperformance loan, defaults. Predicted the root causes, onset, recovery of 1980, 1990 energy crisis, economic recession, 1987 stock markets crash, 1992 European currency, 1997-98 Asian , Russia, South American, LTCM financial crisis and current recession and recovery, market crashWall street , stock prices plunge , loan default risks with average error below 1.5 %,correlation constant above 0.95 (detailed can be found on www.osawh.com  
OSA simulation/Forecasts of What, Why and How of US and Global asset bubble burst resulted market crash, consolidation,  rebound, recovery 2000-2003
What's wrong with Wall Street:
OSA pioneer, Prof./Dr. Warren Huang has extensive graudate training in tracking, simulation, control, operations research, game theory, process simulation, optimal control, mathmatical analysis, PDE, quantum chemistry ,has extensive experiences in the developement, implementation of 32 information knowledge based expert global strategic management systems simulators support think tank and board members corporate structural finance, financial engineering, risk control decision analysis for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bailey Network Controls,refinery, petrochemical, Information techlonogy upstream/ downstream, mineral, food, drug , power plant design, equipment cost estima0 tion, plant construction, operations simulation, control for Bechtel, Fluor, Stauffer Chemicals, Kaiser  and global government, banking, finance, business investment, supply chain cost reduction, , privatization, reform, reengineering, merger/acquisition consulting; strategic investment, SCM/ERP/ CRM process improvement, cost reduction avoided trillion dollar global financial marekt loss.
Dr. Huang have been reading daily Wall Street Journals (US, ASian, European) since 1972. and developed information knowledge based out of daily global Wall Street data and editors, economists, analysts analysis and reasoning.
Wall Street have not growup, despite in the modern internet age, new products innovation like derivatives hedging, structural finance, ABS, MBS loss trillion dollars, betting on the wrong side of investment resulted asset bubble burst.
The market analysts, money managers still using technical charting, speculating on 3 month old, economic,business data, news, following the analysts rating estimates,   recommentation , speculation, resulted dotcom , new, old economy  bubbles, inflated  earning, stocks prices.and corporate scandals.
The current markets crash is different from all the past ones.
What Wall Street Needs:
Wall Street does not know how to make rational decisions  after 30 years, e-finance make it even worse(follwoing the crowd, chasing the markets)
The Global financial market and W all Street desperately  needed : Reliable rational decison tools:  Dr. Huang's  30 years experiences: Two master hands controlling the global markets:
Right hand: Macro economic cycle tracking monetary policy impact on interest rate, currecny, stock indices, financial crisis, bubble burst  pre-warning
Left hand: Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on consumer, business , sector demand, prices, profit margin, stocks, future, derivatives price , asset, ABS, MBS prices, .corporate scandal pre- warning
details can be found on www.osawh.com  and my May 28-29 lecture on global capital market asset prices , risk simulation to PEking University's global finance, corporate governance confernce, in Beijin May 28-29 as follows.
Root cause of current market crash: Excessive money supply , hot money chasing global   high tech resulted bubble bursts in 2000,  US, EURO 6 interest rate hikes, soaring oil prices resulted US manufacturing recession, high unemployment, 911 resulted plunging consumer spending  and Nasdaq plunge 70 % US Fed 11 rate cuts, tax rebate lead to  current global econmic recovery,
US economists, financial market analysts, fund managers  corporate CFO over-optimistic over economics recovery bubble built up in the semicondutors, Dow Jones old economic blue chips and SP, small cap stocks bubble burst due to inflated earning scandals, ignoring the recession impact.
The onset of Wall street crash : ENRON, WCOM scandal and Dollar plunge due to soaring trade deficit resulted FDI capital outflow and investors confidence plunge, margin call and fund money outflow
The onset of Asian, EURO stock crash, ABS downgrades: Plunging dollar resulted EURO, Japan, Taiwan, Korea currency appreciate 12 % ,cutting into export and corporate profit, and plunging US investors, consumer confidence (Taiwan Semiconductor ignoring my March warning, over optimistics on this years US recovery and demand, prices, and capacity utilization,profit,  excessive investment, inventory built up, TSM just realize July 25, to revise downward it's sales, profit outlook and investments, it'sstock gave all it's gain from 22 to 8.5 , drag Taiwan index to test 4500 as Dr. Huang predicted in Jan  2002 workshop for Chinese Petroleum executives in Taipei) profit, will further cutting into demand and prices, profit  recovery in the second half  led to stocks following US crash 30 %
Where and when  is the bottom ? : US and global markets entering final bear market prices deflation, compression of 30-50 % correction from it's recent t peak( AS Citigroup already plunged from 50 to 25, JPM fromo 40 to 20, GM from 65 to 42, Taiwan Semiconductor from 22 to 8.5)reflected the impact of recession indicated by Greenspan's July 16 speech and  warned by Dr. Warren Huang on our website and Nov. 30, 2001, in Beijin, Jan 21-22 in Taipei workshops that  all sectors, especially those overheated semiconductor, old economy, small caps(made new highs this year) as US PG, MMM , Johnson, AX already started correction, No sectors, no stocks is immune to this correction.  we will approaching this bottom in Sept until   US dollar stabilized 116-122 (improved trade deficit) The market will continue current bottom   consolidation till Nov. consumer spending , manufacturing  procurement index must pick up for any market rebound. What's wrong with Wall Street:
Dr. Huang has been reading daily Wall Street Journals (US, Asian, European) since 1972. and developed information knowledge based out of daily Wall Street data and editors, economists, analysts analysis and reasoning.
He  found Wall Street have not grow up, despite in the modern internet age.
The market analysts, money managers still using technical charting, speculating on 3 month old, economic, business data, news, following the analysts recommendation , speculation, resulted dotcom and all kinds bubbles, inflated  earning, stocks prices and corporate scandals. Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks  Monetary, economic, fiscal  Policy Impact on   daily money, currency, industrial supply, demand, supply, prices, corproate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets prices including the causes, onset, spread, recovery of  Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech   prices bubble bursts, recession, recovery  impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial systems stability  with applications to global banking and finance , corporate  pre/post merger integration performance improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks markets, banking and insurance companies regulation, supervision.

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, daily commentary to TV, radio lectures for  30  million China, Taiwan,15 cities (Beiin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei) ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, CFO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investors on GNP growth,  price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate reform, reengineering,  default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, daily global financial market  portfolio, real estate properties markets bubble risks management, supply chain cost reduction   on the job training , decision support for internet e-commerce, e-business, e-finance, e-investment  applications   

The onset of Asian, EURO stock crash: Plunging dollar resulted EURO, Japan, Taiwan, Korea currency appreciate 12 % and plunging US consumer, business spending cutting into export and corporate profit, and plunging US investors, consumer confidence (Taiwan Semiconductor ignoring  March 2002 warning, over-optimistic on  2002  US recovery and demand, prices, and capacity utilization, profit,  excessive investment, inventory built up, TSM just realize July 25, to revise downward it's sales, profit outlook and investments, it'sstock gave all it's gain from 22 to 8.5 , drag Taiwan index to test 4000 as Dr. Huang predicted in Jan workshop  2002 for Chinese Petroleum executives in Taipei) profit, will further cutting into demand and prices, profit  recovery in the second half  led to stocks following US crash 30 %
Two master hands controlling global Bull, /Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold 
Right  hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate,   consumer, business demand impact on industy, corporate earning, stock prices
Market analysts and    Deloittereport on NEW spending index  are overoptimistic over July durable goods order and consumer spending which have been distorted by refinancing income and no interest auto refinancing for old models inventory clearance, it will definite plunge in new models without discount after Aug As they did in Sept.
Dr. Huang warned Oct. 2002  this website US and global stocks have to retest  lows in early 2003 (visited, witnessed by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives  OSAvisitors
Sept  2002 durable goods plunged 5.9 %, despite housing sales up 1.9 % Global markets follow US Market bulls  repeat July 19 technical rally ,The market did retreat as   Dr. Huang  predicted Oct. 2002 , Dow Jones fail to stay above 8600 to support bull market rally into year end and next year.These bulls after losing 7 trillion dollar in the market never learn a lesion, change their infectious greed. They use any IBM, MSFT, CitiGroup, MMM, NVR good earning data to speculate,Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,Russel to 400  trying to extend the rally into bull rally in yearend and next year is prematures are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125  trying to extend the rally into bull rally in yearend and next year is prematures are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125 ( 38.6  billion trade deficit will  drag dollar and  Dow Jones, Nasdaq into correction , while disregards all other bad earning and  manufacturing slump and consumer confidence plunge to 80..  kept speculating Greenspan rate cut to  support the markets (Dow at 8500, Nasdaq 135 )    will lead to further disappopoints and plunge into anothers bear trap as it did before.Given GDP of 3.1 %, consumer spending , 4.2 %,  No central  bank will cut rate to inflate already overheated housing and  auto market,  help little the manufaturing excess capacit
OSA simulation charts available on website shown the monetary, economic, policy , recession impact on global stocks and currency, which 
OSA for  Greenspan's comment on monetary policy impact on asset bubble..
high tech bubble burst could be prevented if not mislead by exaggerating IT and VC contirbution to productivity and immune to bubble burst lead market analyst,, and corporate speculation resulted overvaluation and scandals. as L warned on my website www.osawh.com since Dec. 1999.
Market have to  consolidation 7000-7500-8000  , Nasdaq 1100-1250 , SP 750- 850   drag global stocks, mutual fund give up their recnet gains until  dollar stabalized at 120-125 ( 35 billion trade deficit  will give little support at soaring oil prices )   bottom  consolidation   technical rebound to 8500 and 1350  in mid OCt    earning report. continued current  consolidation extend into the Nov. holiday season, until solid consumer, business rebound.
US and global markets entering final bear market prices deflation, compression of 30-50 % correction from it's recent t peak( AS Citigroup already plunged from 50 to 25, JPM fromo 40 to 20, GM from 65 to 42, Taiwan Semiconductor from 22 to  6.5)reflected the impact of recession indicated by Greenspan's July 16 speech and  warned by Dr. Warren Huang on our website and Nov. 30, 2001, in Beijin, Jan 21-22 in Taipei workshops that  all sectors, especially those overheated semiconductor, old economy, small caps(made new highs this year) as US PG, MMM , Johnson, AX already started correction, No sectors, no stocks is immune to this correction.  . He predicted in late July US stock  market strong rebound 1200 points  on  dollar rebound and rate cut speculation excessive, The market used dollar rebound and Fed Chicago, Pensivania, San Franacisco governors upbeat about sequential quarters recovery but ignored their warning about the bumps in the rocky road to recovery were over-optimistic, have to  consolidation 7000-7500-8000 drag global stocks, mutual fund give up their recnet gains until  dollar stabalized at 120-125 ( 35 billion trade deficit  will give little support at soaring oil prices )   bottom  consolidation extend into the Nov. holidaty season, until solid consumer, business rebound.
The author has spend over 30 years in the development, implementation of simulation of monetary,  economic, fiscal policy impact on global economic, business cycles, daily financial markets futures, derivatives, sectors demand, prices bubble burst,, the root causes, onset, recovery of global financial, energy crisis. Thousands simulators predicted month ahead, pre-warning for financial crisis, corporate accounting  scandala(ENRON, WCOM, IBM, TYCO..)
Tracking results have been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors confernce since 1998.
Dr. Huang  warned on my website in Jan 2000 on US high tech ( IT and biotech)bubble burst will plunge 50-90 % Nasdaq will plunged to 1800 and Warned July 2001 that US recession, Economists and market analysts over bullish over economic recovery: Dow old economics stocks overheated, bankinig , finance, retail, airline, bubble burst for 30-50 % correction.

Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA present ed the following dynamics simulation results in his panel session May 28.,2002, OSA simulation charts will be demonstrated in the workshops                  in-House workshops reservation  wh3928@yahoo.com 

 Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA presented the following dynamics simulation results in his panel session May 28.,2002, Beijin University global finance corporate governance confernce
OSA simulation charts will be demonstrated in  all Dr. Huang's  workshops

1.Accounting Mal-practices Pre-Warning  OSA on high-tech, energy , power prices bubble burst impact on earning, stock prices, credit rating and nonperformance loan
China's Guangxia (0557) and US Enron Earning, Stocks Prices bubble bursts pre-warning simulation
7. Monetary Policy high tech bubble burst impact on impact on US, China FDI capital flow, Banking nonperformance loan  Credit risks , Mutual fund performance, earning, stocks prices
Citigroup, JP Morgan
Asian Property loan demand/ prices, bubble burst? auto loan demand, sales, credit demand, Delinquency ,the root causes, onset, recovery of nonperformance delinquency/ ABS performance rating, stock prices
US mortgage rate, Housing prices, refinancing, impact on Fannie Mae sales, earning, stocks prices
US auto interest free finance, sales, Big three stock prices, US loan , credit card delinquency OSA
China,  Hong Kong   Taiwan  Hong Kong  Singapore  Japan 
J. P. Morgan, Pudong / Mingshen Banks JF China Fund  Hua-an fund and gloobal mutual fund performance, investment strategy
5. Monetary Policy, Global Interest rate , Currency impact on Stock Index Futures Prices Simulation
2.Monetary Policy, Hi -Tech, Oils prices bubble impact on China IPO, ADR shares prices simulation
China software king Yunyue , Mingshin bank IPO and China Offshore Oil  ADR stock prices Simulation
3.Monetary Policy,Interest rate Wealth effect impact on US,China, Japan, Hong Kong Housing Prices
4..Monetary Policy, Interest , currency  impact on US NAPM, products innovation cycles impacton semiconductor B/B, DRAM, Intel P4  demand, spot prices and bubble bursts 
5. Monetary Policy, Global  Interest rate , Currency impact on Stock Index Futures Prices  stock market crash, crisis  Simulation
Dow Jones/Nasdaq/ Japan Nikkei index/  Hong Kong Henseng Index/ Taiwan Stock Index futures Prices  London Financial Times, DAX index 
6. Monetary , economic, fiscal  Policy impact on the root causes, on set, recovery of global financial crisis simulation : EURO, ASEAN, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Korea Interest rate , Currency, stock indices before, during ,after the Asian, EURO, Russia, US recession, South American financial crisis 
8. Monetary Policy, global economic, business cycle impact on Global Pre/post merger/acquisition performance, stocks prices US  J P Morgan Exxon-Mobil   Simulation
9. Monetary Policy,?Interest rate ,Currency, Export impact on US , CHina GNP, Stock Index Futures Prices    US quarterly GNP Growth Rate?  NY Dow Jones and Nasdaq  Index     Future
10.Interest rate, trade impact on currency futures, option Consumer demand on crude oil futures, options Japan Yen exchange rate future and  NYMEX Wtex crude oil   Future and call option price

Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA, has his Ph.D in Chemical Engineering, Oerations Resaerch from Polytrechnic Institute of New York with thesis   extending APPLO moonlanding  tracking of  Nonlinear adaptive Kalman filtering  to applications to Chemical reactors control and econometric forecasting,
Hhas over 30 years develop, implement 32 global strategic knowledge management supported   investment, supply chain simulation systems supporting US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bailey Network Control, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, FLuor, Kaiser board members, corporate/plant think tanks and Taiwan, CHina, economic planning, ministry of economic, finance, trade council, state and medium, small enterprises reengineering, change management  investment, supply chain strategy  daily strategic decisions.
He has offered regular lectures to Beijin, Shanghai, Guanzhou, Shenzhen, Taipei, San Francisco 15 cities TV, Radio, newspaper 30 million banking, finance money, fund managers, investors and thousands on the job training workshops for China, Taiwan 100 banking, securities companies CEO, fund, money managers, traders, investors, and  trained 1000 Taiwan's Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai university Chemical Engineering, economics, global strategic management senior,, graduate students, and lectured China's Tsinghua, Peking, Fudan,, Zechiang, Dalian, East China, Hua-Chun science, TEch economic management, Finance, chemical engineering, computer control faculty, students,   avoided trillion dollar market loss since 1990. He has been invited to speak to 30 global central bank governor   financial risk management conferences on global banking, financial crisis, capital markets asset bubble simulation, risk manage ment since 1998. He offer consulting service to 300,000 Taiwan importer/exporters 100 countries currencies, export price quote, commodity prices .
He will be glad to offer your in-house workshops provide global capital markets ,asset prices   invest- ment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

Click here for Corporate risks management annual  memberships available  for global central bankers, financial institutions, hedging fund managers, investment banking Corporate CEO, CFO, financial, procurement, marketing manager, traders, investors, investment and risk management  decision supports and senior, entry level staff on the job training. 

Contact :   Whuang3928@aol.com    Fax : 1-510-524-4484(  San Francisco, USA)
                    Copyright 2003  www. osawh.com  / Dr. Warren Huang