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OSA Market Today: Two master hands controlling global Capital  Market Opening/Closing, emerging bull/bear market trend prices market forces mechanism
2006/2007 OSA Forecasts, Investing Strategy : Daily Global Macroeconomic Control, Stocks, Interest rates, Bond, Forex, Financial, Commodities Futures Derivatives, Emerging Markets  Prices Forecasts :
  identify months ahead of major emerging prices trend and  investment opportunties, crisis, risks  early warning without following economic, business, market analysts daily news, chasing the markets hedging, betting on the wrong side resulted trillion dollar loss   

Global Proactive Strategic  Market Research tracking simulation/forecast emerging market trends

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Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession , oil above 100, despite Fed  rate cuts

Dr. Warren Huang who was risk management panelist and  original planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China
Fund World  2008  conference, offer proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, US subprime meltdown, recession impact on global stock indices, commodities, energy indexing ETF Optimal multiclass asset 1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset  allocation  strategy  by catching ahead the emerging bull/bear market trend
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market correction, widening credit derivative swap bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil above 100, Dow Jones index plunge to 11500, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking,  financial and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed  rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity ,housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008
 Dr. Warren Huang  who pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 110 　. He predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to 95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer,  business demand and oil price to 90- 115 , supporting  spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. Sept. 26, 207

Dr. Huang recommended to Phillips Petroleum CEO, Merrill Lynch, HSBC，Mobil, Exxon, Aramco VP Nov 2005 to invest 2006 Jan and  July oil, energy futures  and metals call option, he predicted oil prices go to 69 in Jan and 78 in Aug 2006, and gasoline, heating oil, metal derivatives investments up more than 1000 % , and warned US, China continue interesst rate hikes into summer 2006, stocks give up all 2006 gain, due to inflationary slowdown pressure, US GDP slow to 1.6 %, core inflation up 2.7 %
 All US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong OSA  Proactive Market Today, market opening/closing bell, emerging bull/bear market trend analysis will be provided by www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/OSAtoday.html
innovative  proactive global central banks, FRB monetary policy, rate hikes impact  Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.  Bernanke  will replace Greenspan as FRB chairman Feb 2006, He already drop accommodate to (economic growth) and measured interest rate hikes , miss interpreted, distorted by financial market economists as the end of rate hike, as last 13 measured rate hikes mislead the markets, underestimated the inflation and encouraged wealth effect resulted speculation in housing and construction materials bubbles in oil and natural resources. Oil prices will challenges 69 in January and metals prices making new high follows by commodities prices. Gas and electricity cost up 40 % will drive  CPI higher in the month ahead. current rate hikes will continue into the summer, US dollar and stocks, bond all overvalued, facing correction.

US dollar weakness continue in 2006:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 685 billion will  drag US dollar  continue into this year Euro : 1.25- 1.35 , Yen 104-116, 
Global stocks bear market correction  summer,  2006, give up most of 2006 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  making new high will gave up most of  this  year gain  China and US  summer economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 10000- 11400, Nasdaq  2000- 2350 , S&P 1200-13500, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 5.10- 5.7.  Taiwan index overheated  drag to 6200- 7400, Henseng 14500- 17500, Nikkei 14500- 17900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1400- 1680, Shenzhen3500- 4350, 
   Greenspan agree with Dr. Warren Huang that RMB revaluation and US raise import tarrif by 27 % will not help manufacturing cut trade deficit and jobs. and accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into final quarter  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 , 
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets conference to Exxon Mobil, ARAMCO, VP , Phillips Petroleum CEO, 30  oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils , downstream demand driving oil prices to 64 around Christmas and 69 in January , metals prices to new high. plunging US dollar, stock, bond.
book his 2006 US/China macroeconomic control, currency, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops
 semiconductors and internet stocks overpriced following  Nasdaq correction.

Dr. Warren Huang  lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to 2000 QFII  on Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor) must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares facing and correction 2004
He lectured  to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.
 When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for tracking , forecasts  month ahead the emerging market bull/bear trend of last 20 years  global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on macro-economic control , prices stability and capital stocks, bond, oil, metals, commodity future, derivatives market prices market forces prices mechanism, investors sentiment simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what, why, how he has been lecture to 24 global  central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management, OPEC petroleum ministers , oil, gas  investment, supply chain conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,He offered thousands lectures over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
Global stocks, bond and Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
2004 Forecasts/review,
2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 50, and Intel profit decline, over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price already rebound to 69 due to soaring US, China consumer, business demand in summer 2005.
2006 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. HP overpriced, profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough. will be traded 30-26  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google overpriced  will  plunged from 465 to 355, any attempt using IPO and  using market merger and some bullish earning news  to speculate bull market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  US economy already facing inflationary slowdown  soaring oil, commodity, high inflation resulted slowdown (4 Q GDP slowed to 1.21%),while year end manufacturing order, consumer confidence rebound, only leading to excessive inventory builtup,  repeating 2000 bubble burst avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.

Don't Miss This Workshop Opportunities in China/global coal, oil, gas, LNG ,petrochemicals, freight, power industry demand, prices, investment risks forecast

5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:

 Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast Emerging Bull/Bear Markets Trend Month Ahead
Tracking, simulate Global monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy, investors, consumer confidence, technical charting impact on last 20 years daily global financial market interest rate, currency, stock indices , commodity, oil, bond futures, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, demand, listed stocks earning, prices performances:
 
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation. S.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1200)) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. 2004 will continue into 2005 as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Nov CPI drop to 2.8 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas ( oil prices will rebound 50 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand.
China  hopefully achieve soft landing in the second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 55, gold prices rebound from 360 to 465,  metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory, facing series rate hike in summer  2004, US and global economy facing slowdown, profit squeeze,  stock markets facing bear market correction,  Dow consolidate 9500- 10700, Nasdaq 1650-1960 with stocks down 30- 50 %from  their peak
He spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , Despite US December WPI and CPI drop due to brief oil prices dip to 40,  (down 30 % from 55)US still facing 3.3 % CPI and 4.3 % WPI inflation. soaring consumer, business demand in the final quarter 2004 will further drive  oil prices back to 50 in January cold winter and rebound to 55 in March gasoline demand, prices pick  US  will facing inflation soared to 5 % spring peaking holiday demand season .  US, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 and continue into first quarter 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday season, as December already plunged to 150,000, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 46 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM and consumer confidence peaking out in the second quarter and final quarter at  66   driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May , Oct. and extending into the first half of  2005.  US trade deficit soared to 60 billion due to excessive demand for  import and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes well into 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  brief economic leading indicators rebound after declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004,  Dr. Huang accurate predicted US Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, and stock prices peaking out in the Dec. 2003 ,and  Oct  2004  job creation 337,000 and retails sale peaking out   Dec. 2004 did drop to 147,000  and  2004 China and US, global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation, any year end and January effect speculation will facing bear market correction repeating 2000, as Intel, E-Bay , GM, Delta profit decline and China SINA, Sohu disappointing earning drag internet stocks into bubble burst.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up most of its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last quarter GDP at 3 %) and followed by stagflation this year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction
US CPI at  3.3 % ,whole sale price up 4.3 %   with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 95 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil soared to 50 currently consolidate in 44-50 due to mild winter, However cold winter ahead will drive heating oil,  and oil price traded  40- 50 gas to 8.0 and metals to  new high  this year will drive up 20 sectors raw materials 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in winter, as   more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.8 %
Daily Global top 40 World Stock Indices Futures      Daily Top 40 World Forex Currency futures
US Nasdaq and NYSE  hot stocks ,                            Global Top 40 countries ADR shares
US banks-finance  reform, M/A,                                CBOE, NYMEX  Oil, Gas  futures Price 
Nymex Gold/metal futures                                        Global ETF (exchange Traded Fund ) strategy
Daily Nasdaq  and global IT Info-100            and  Silicon -100               IPO pricing forecasts
Greater China Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
 
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted Nov , 2003 on China finance, Capital Stock Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives China continue facing credit tightening, continue well into 2005 stock markets facing bear market 30- 50 % correction, Shanghai A test 1150-1300, 
 Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO Chinese Edition China small medium  cap   ADR    mutual fund/ commodity/ bond
 Taiwan ADR, most actives Chinese Edition                Hong Kong Blue Chips H  Red Chips   Chinese Edition

Asian Economy/Capital Markets  Tracking, Forecasts  Asian Financial Crisis  Industrial Finance
Japan  China  Korea  Taiwan  Singapore   Hong Kong   India   Malaysia
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital stock market conferences http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt   Asian stocks following US stocks into consolidation
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this website, (Global  Capital market stock indices, currency OSA models) s witnessed, visited by million global government, central banks, banking finance, corporate , academics executives that  US and global high tech bubble burst in 2000 and  recession plunged 80 % to 1100, Dow Jones to 7450, European, Asian stocks plunged 50- 70 % during 2001-early 2003 and rebound in the second quarter 2003
Currently, global markets are over-optimistic over US second half  job creation and inflation outlook will be sustainable, pushed Dow to consolidation in  9750- 10500  Nasdaq to 1890- 2050, Asian, European, South American stock markets are all overheated for consolidation as uneven economic development, with overheated housing, auto, energy sectors bubble ready to burst while the rest of the manufacturing facing deflation due to over capacity.
US mortgage rate was up  1 %,despite recent drop to 5.6 % will rebound above before summer, while China raise bank reserve 1 % fighting excessive housing, auto loan demand and hot money inflow.
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OSA pioneer accurately predicted July 2001 on this  website and workshops for China Peoples Banks staff, Beijin, that US entering recession, Dow drag Nikkei, Henseng plunge below 9000. and wanred Nov.2001, in Beijin, Jan  2002 in Tai pei that US and Asian, European stocks and mutual fund over heated  for 30-50 % correction, oil prices soared to 28 from 16, and again on this website in July that US stocks  mid summer rally after July earning report, dollar stabilize 115-123. and again to Wall Street Journal  Mid Aug 2002 that rally is over, old economy, chips, retails blue chips (MMM, PG, CSCO, TSM, NVR, Birkshire A)stock give up all their gain for 30 % correction
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==== Global trillion dollar NPL assets prices simulation,  recovery, prevention  workshops,========
OSA maximize nonperofrmance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of   assets bubble burst
What is wrong with  Wall Street and global financial market?,
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ?  What Wall Strret need ?
How  to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts risks
Two master hands controling global Bull, /Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold 
Right  hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate,   consumer, business demand impact on industry, corporate earning, stock prices
Dr Huang has n two master hand controlling global financial markets bull, bear market and for daily buy/ sell/ hold  decision one month ahead. He has lectured to 30 millions China, Taiwan, Radio, TV audience,US and global investment  workshops tracking last 20 years, accurately predicted the bull, bear, buy,sell/ hold decisions 
Weekend   OSA Journal   Buy/Sell/Hold : top10 global IT, Biotech,  Old economy, most active shares   published   each Saturday review OSA for global economic impact on top corporate performance   English   China
Central  bank Monetary, Economic, Finance Policy Analysis: for  growth, daily   markets prices stability
Economic cycle Bubble Burst, recession recovery
USA   Asian   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan    S. Korea    Singapore    India
EURO   Russia/E. Europe  Mexico     Brazil
Global Government  Procurement Strategy: Monetary policy impact on  oil,commodity prices  
Global  Trade/WTO Strategy  Supporting Taiwan government, 100,000 importer/exporter100 country trade     
OSA  Today Journal :  2001- 2003 daily Global Financial Markets  OSA Forecasts
US and Global recession/Recovery Energy Crisis OSA: US entering initial phase of recovery is hurting by strong dollar, declining business spending , energy crisis
Dr Huang accurately predicted last Dec on this website that  market analysts overoptimistic over earning estimate like IBM , GE,MSFT, NOK, TYCO, Citigroup, Xerox and others blue chips, that IBM will plunge below 100 to test 80., MSFT to 50, , TYCO to 10 and Citigroup will be hurt by Argintina currency crisis(Argentia closing banks, FX market),  CItigroup loss 800 million in Argentina.MSFT forecast 40 % decline in XBOX and flat software growth.  Unemployment, accounting malpractices,stock market crash, resulted 7 trillion loss in wealth, cutting into consumer  spending plunged to 1.9 %, GDP only 1.1 %, Purchasing manager index plunged from 56 to 51, and Aug       manufacturing, servei facing contractrion price cutting due to excessive high inventory in chips, (NVDA) and chemicals, auto have to use no interest  promotion for inventory clearance.Market bulls challening 8800- 9000 is premature t rally to 9000 is premature, have to retest 7500-8000, Nasdaq retes 1200, SP test 800-850  double bottom.  Fortunately, weak  dollars will boost manufactruring export and profit, stable dollar , spending in the month ahead.  which will lead to modest economic and stock market recovery after  Dow Jones consolidation in 7000- 7500- 8000  , Nasdaq 1100-1250- SP in  750-850 may extend into final quarter.  lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction and recovery  investment/supply chain workshops
Global markets follow US Market bulls   repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting  Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125
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OSA  simulation   results will be demonstrated on all Dr. Huang workshops and conferencess investment/supply chain workshops
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang predicted US first  rate hike  in May, 1999 on China peoples banks governor conference and warned on this website and www.sina.com investment forum that US high tech bubble burst in Dec. 1999 and warned China and global stock overheat, to Beijin China Peoples bank staff this website July 2001: US entering  recession drag Shanghai A from 2100 to 1500, Dow, Henseng, Nikkei  plunge below 9000, Taiwan index below 3500)
Oil Prices, Energy Crisis Impact Simulation: Demand   for oil  will pickup as  economic entering recoery and entering peak summer demand, continued OPEC cut in production.  near term oil  prices 25-29, and heating oil  70-79 Gasoline , traded between  70-88, rising oil energy feedstock. products  and petrochemical prices  improve Du Pont, Kodak and other oil, petrochemicals profit   stock prices are short lifed, facing profit squeez.. However, downstream end  users, having trouble passing the costs will squesz upstream profit: supply chain cost reduction, process improvement workshop
Global Banking Finance stocks Merger  Performance:  Big is beautiful or Risky ? Default crisis, risk control. Too big to fail? They all failed (including Citigroup mega merger in 1998 LTCM crisis, JPM-Chase merger  fail again in Enron scandal,  They all failed in risk management.  Merger will not improve banking earning decline 25 % and default up 50 % , investment banking income down 25 %, . only our  risk management workshops can help then save trillion dollar market loss   Global first half and this  year corporate earning decline due to recession resulted prices weakness daily   top quality old economy and Nasdaq stocks prices compression, buy/sell/hold investment   strategy
 Monetary policy impact on Crude oil, global petrochemicals, plastics prices,  earning, stock prices
Global Telecom, wireless, ADR  stock prices compression and investment strategy 
  China sina.com  Shanghai, Shenzhen most active stocks prices OSA, Strategy Chinese      
  Taiwan's oversold bargain  old economic below 10 dollars  stocks   prices, OSA Chinese 
Japan ADRs and most active shares  OSA/forecast        KoreaADRs and most active shares  OSA/forecast
Monetary policy impact on AOL top 10 stock  , BW global infotech 100 earning, stock prices
Two master hands controlling global economy, stock  index, corporate earning and stocks prices simulation

Global Fiancial Makret Information Knowledge based  prices simulation, forecasts decision analysis:
Artificial intelligence , neural net, fuzzy logic Integrating central banks monetary policy impact simulatio, causes and responses of financial markets prices dynamics:
A. Information:  20 years daily Wall Street Journals, Financial times, China securities, Shangahi securities, Hong Kong, Tawian Economics news and  daily global financial markets data
B. Knowledge:: Artificial Intelligence neural net, fuzzy logic  combine Demand side monetary and industrial supply, demand, prices  economics, corporate finance, and  daily  markets analysis, investors Bull, Bear senitments(technical charting ), markets strategy  training and feedback from 30 millions government regulation, banking, finance executives, fund managers, traders, investors market psychology in  Dr. Huang's nationwide radio and TV financial market risk management  program and conference lectures in Taiwan, Japan and China, US, Europe
REcession recovery impact on Asian  IT  global  energy,  asset bubble , banking , financial crisis,  credit risks  simulation , control He accurately  warning   in July 2001  the US and global stocks overheat due to financial market analyst overoptimistic over second half  global  earning rebound   ignoring  US, EURO Asian slowdown  daily tracking of Global hot  ADR shares,  dailymost active hot stocks  prices,  and   weekend edition
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Oct 2000 and  July 2001 on this website that US stocks enters final phase of  compression, deflation  Dow , Nieeki, Henseng plunge to 9000  Nasdaq below 1400    plunging prices   US old economics Dow  stocks overheated , finance, retails insurance , stocks  will give up all it's gain as oil stock bubble burst lead by ENRON billions dollar loss  acurrately predicted by Dr. Huang  
Dow  Jones 
Plunging investors and consumer confidence and consumer spending in the second quarter extend inot third quarter, with Aug manufacr\uring, service index facing contraction 6 %   Unemployment, accounting malpractices,  Soaring oil prices, energy, feedstock costs  , Plunging dollar, corporate scandal, earning revised downward will hurt investors confidences, drag US stocks continued consolidation into the final quarter, retest 7500-8000, Nasdaq test 1150-2100 , SP test 800 despite bulls speculating on CSCO, DELL, and Fed rate cut challenging 8800-9000  predicted by Dr. Huang   earlier    
Stocks Buy/Sell/Hold Review OSA  , forecast for earning decline and stock prices   compression MMM  will plunge into  90- 110, MSFT to  40- 45correction, NVDA to 6- 8-  PG , AIG to 65-75, NVR 250-275  All old economy retail blue chip stocks and global mutual fund  making new high this year will plunge 30- 50 % and new economy stocks to give up most  of its gain( as DRAM price plunged from 4.8 to  2.6 due to excessive inventory, TSM plunged to new low of  5.5))Overoptimistc over banking,  finance, real estate,  IC, computer, network,oil upstream/ downstream,  retail, health care, saving and loan  sectors facing poor  credit quality, bad loan and derivatives, junk bond trading loses and drug, biotech sectors lack new products markets  retail stocks facing deep discount for inventory clearance, 
Global markets follow US Market bulls  repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting   Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125
Special Report:  Interest Rate,  oil prices impact on US industrial sector  second   half 2002 sales, earning Simulation forecasts and investment strategy  
Falling prices and profits in all manufacturinig sectors due to  weakeniing demand  most active  hotstocks,, Global Infotech 100 strategy and  Silicon Valley IT

Nasdaq :CSCO, TSM, HWP, AMAT , INTC , DELL , IBM upgrade over-optimistic on  second half   outlook  overheated  due to   business investment  index decline . Over capacity in telecommunication, optic fibers, PC, Chips , resulted profit decline and loss will drag chips demand prices, stock prices Nasdq  , have to consolidation - 1100-1250  , due to accounting malprctice  fear , Iraq war and west coast lockout worry, plunging profits    buy/sell/hold click global IT 100 and Silicon Valley top 100
S&P will be traded 750-850   Russel small cap index will be consilidated 250-350
Asian Business, Economics, Currency, Stocks ,Fund,  Corporate merger, IPO/ADR, ABS  investment strategy
Asian  Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary(workshops) as Dr. Huang accurately predicted  Japan's central bank will supply money by raise 50 % bond   and 17 banks facing 700 billion nonperformance loan, downgraded trigger sell off in Japan banking, finance shares, although Nikkei rebound earlier to 12000 due to weak  Yen resulted  export rebound ended in July 2002 as dollar plunged to 116  drag  Nikkei to 9400 , 18 year new low,already spread into Hong Kong banking shares plunge 40 % , Henseng plunged below  9600, , US slowdown, stock plunge will darg Nikkei into 9000-10000   consolidation  , Asian stock will be down 30- 50 %
He accurately predicted Hong Kong, Singapore banking, preperties stocks  stocks are overheated, starting 30 %correction . Weak dollar , prices slump cutting into trade surplus, put pressure on Asian currencies appreciation, New economy IT and old manufacturing and banking finace stocks all suffered by stocks slump   export slowdown, falling profits banking, finance will facing bad loan and possible financial crisis. Asian economy drag by US into 1991 style recession recovery (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea  )
China Economy, stocks market simulation Investing strategy::
China monetary policy impact on macro, financial markets regulation, supervision,  trade economic: Asian recession and   Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary(workshops)
,Dr. Huang accrately predicted China and global stock overheat, to Beijin China Peoples bank staff this website July 2001: US entering  recession drag CHina export growth decline fromm 40 % to 5 % m1 money supply growth decline from 24 % to 12.96, m2 money supply growth decline from 18 % to 10.5 %,Shanghai A from 2100 to 1370
China  is pulling out of slowdown by US strong consumer demand  as China first 9 month export growth at 15 %, with third quarter export growth soared 28.9 % and Forengn Direct investment up  25 % led to first   half  GDP growth at 7.8 %  and third quarter GDP growth  8.1 %  industrial production up 16.5 %, However, retails growth slowed to 8.9 % due to stock market wealth droped 20 % from  last year's peak , export prices drop 2 % due to global slowdwon resulted defaltion. hurt by .Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs, US slowdown, falling prices will hurt China old economy,  corporate earning performance as China import 50 % oil simulation Charts will be demonstrated on all Dr Huang's  investment/supply chain workshops
  China 2002 money supply growth is  14.5 %  and second half 13 %- 14 %. fortunately home and auto  loan soared to 500 billion Yuan will boost consumer spending and supporting domestic economy , despite negative impact from  stock market slump.  stop state owned share selling provide  some prices support for stocks, but insufficent to rally over 1750 .
Investment opportunties and risks ahead   in China stocks
Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stock Index Daily  High flier, IPO,most active, high tech, low prices stocks China sina.com  Shanghai, Shenzhen most active stocks prices OSA Simulation/Forecasts , Strategy Chinese     
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on speech to China Peoples Bank financial market and stock markets staff in Beijing on July 30, 2001 that due to global slowdown drag earning decline resulted Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stocks high tech stocks bubble burst:
US recovery boosted China export, soaring oil prices, global slowdwon, rising oil prices, and US west coast lockout   will hurt  China eocnomy and  profits
China recent IPO: Unicom hurt by global competition in telecom, at 2.3 for Shanghai A will drag Shanghai low prices shares and SHanghai A plunge below 1500 and Unicom will folllow low prices shares approaching 3.2 ( SINOPEC)down to 3. 2, SHanghai Airline will stay at 4.00-5.5 , drag by Unicom., while Koda may dip below it's 14-20 IPO prices due to plunging global and Shanghai markets sentiments. However, bullish economic news provide some support at 1500
Shanghia A   traded between 1450-1580 SHenzhen A    between   2950-3200 Shanghia B   traded between  125-135 SHenzhen B    between 200-225
Dr Huang accurately predicted here in May 2001 that  Shanghai and Shenzhen A markets are overheated by sector rotation  speculating on, ST block (restructuring) high-tech stocks and B shares  with Shanghai A soared from 1850 to 2200, SHanzhen from 4400 to 5000 , to support the investor sentiment for  for China GEM stocks ignoring falling global demand and prices for high tech products, will giveup all it's recent gains going for 15 -30% correction and B market bubble burst for 50 % correction, consolidation with Shanghia A  near term traded between 1500-1600 SHenzhen A near term trade, between2800-3200 on disappointing   earning report shown only 40 % coporate earning gain, 60 % flat to decline while114 company suffered loss,  IPO stocks and ST block stocks  earning are dispointing due to rising oils, raw material, energy costs and falling products prices.followed by B share, ST block and  high priced high tech stocks IPO bubble burst, plunge 30-50 % : Yunyou plunged from 120 to test 30 ( Huagong, Yian, Tsinghwa, will be down compressed to 30-40-    from 68, as Yinquanshai    plunged from 50  to  1  due to accounting irregularity(like US ENRON)  as  government step up financial industry regulation and risk management., China  Hitech plunged from 42 to 10  and most other high tech, computer internet stock  with disapponiting earning will be compressed to 20- 40, while medium priced stocks( 11-25) are hurt by disppointing banking, finance, high priced high tech , drug, earn TV appliance stock(hurt by Konka, Chonghon facing loss.
The latest IPO SINOPEC lead the Low priced  stocks priced between 3-4  in paper, cement, steel, petrochemicals are facing rising oils, raw materials  and fuel costs have little room for growth. but will provide future rebound despite ST blocks earning decline drag stock price down to belwo 15 to 3-5
The latest IPO SINOPEC, rebound to 3.8 due to soaring downstream PE prices, however is hurting by soaring oil prices  will be traded between 3.1- 3.4
Dr. Huang accurately predicted last July in Beijin the bubble burst of B shares :CHina opening B share for domestics investors pushed B shares converging to A shares, However, due to poor earning outlook, speculating is over !, both shares will be retreating in the week ahead SHanghai B will be arouond 125 -150 Shenzhen B around 200-250 
Housing markets still facing oversupply, ,finance industry hurt by weak loan demand, small interest spread, nonperformance loan and fallingS corproate profits due to price cutting WTO impact. China recent hike crude oil, fuel prices, will cutting inot petrochemical, fibers industry profits, ending recent rally in that industry.. and no leading drug in drug industry for profit generation put ceiling in stock prices , Click for today's most active, high prices stocks, high tech stocks analysis
Dr Huang accurately predicted  last year that All IPO are doubled,   facing 30- 50 % correction pressure   ST/PT shares : while speculateive with operating loss shares, prices -10- 32 should be down 50 % to ?below  8-12
China ADR shares are under price compression by CHL and CHU, PTR(PetroChina) benefited by soaring oil price, look attractive belwo 13 while SNP hurt by falling  products prices    look atractive below 13 
Taiwan Economy and stocks:
Asian  Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary   (workshops)  for prevent trillion dollar market loss and nonperformance loan
Taiwan Monetary policy impact on economy GDP, export, currency, stocks markets simulation forecasts:
Taiwan  export return to growth will help GDP return to growth.  it will be hurt by  soaring oil prices
Dr Huang accurately prdicted in April that Taiwan Stock index follow Nasdaq speculate above 6300-6500  especially the IT and petrochemical sectors are overheated Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs , economic slowdown, caporate earning warning will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance   will drag  Dow  consolidate 7000-7500-8500 Nasdaq 1100-1290   and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction   simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops Will be following US Nasdaq over accounting scandal, war  fear, falling profit,  facing consolidation in  3500-4000 -4500  OTC index 90- 105  due to 30-50 % correction in high priced electronic and biotech stocks, petrochemical stocks to plunge below  100( TSM plunged from 94 to 35, Wise technology from 160 to 40, Linfa from 800 to 200 , Ginhau, Hunda all plunge below 100
Global markets follow US Market bulls  repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting   Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125, Taiwan index soared to 4500 excessive will retest 3500-4000 for   consolidation
Dr. Huang accurately predicte July 2001 in Beijin that  will be repeat1995 missle crisis retreat back to test  3500-4000   Dr. Huang accurately predicted    export growth   decline in    M2 money supply growth down to 5 %, unemployment peaking at   5.5% GDP   facing recession( 2001  drag NT to 34.7-35.5, Facing  financial storm, declining old economy and electronic share profits, He also waned in Jan 2002  market and semiconductors   sectors specualtion by the market on  first   half IC recovery is overoptimistics with index will retrest  3500-4000- , Weishen, Honhai, Taita, will be plunged  belw90--100, TSM will be down to30-40    UMC to 15-25 , Chunghwa Telecom 40 -   despite Merril, Goldman Sach upgarde on   Electronic, old economy, and China  related hot stocks OSA facing 30-50 % correction 
Dr. Huang accurately predicted last year over heated high flyer (over 100) chips, networks, fiberoptics,  start 50-80  % correction   drag  the index  plunge below   3400  Soaring oil prices cutting into old economy stocks prevent the    government  stabilization fund and measurement support for quality   converntional stocks.  petrochemical s, cement, steel, paper, metal, transportation, fibers all rebounded , However,  all hurt by rising raw material, energy costs, falling prices,,   though stock prices have fully reflected the declining earning, with limited downside risk,.upside potential is also limited , Finance and bankinf\g stocks suffered by nonperformance loan and plunging stocks WITH LIMITED GROWTH POTENTIAL  
Hong Kong Economy , Henseng Index  simulation and blue, red chips, high tech, GEM, CHina H., B shares
 US and Hong Kong ,Asian  banking stocks plunging 30 % reacting toSouth American Argentina defaut and Brazil junk bond yield soared  and Japan 17 banking stocks 700 billion  nonperformance loan accurately predicted by Dr. Huang Asian financial crisis in March 2001
Dr. Huang accurately predict in May 2002 that Henseng Index follow Dow Jones rebound  overheated., will consolidation in 8600-9000-  due to Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs falling properties, and industrial products prices (Hong Kong is entering deflation) will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance will drag  Dow  consolidate 7000- 7500-8000 , Nasdaq 1100-1250-   and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops further compression in finace and properties stocks in 40- 60 Dr. Huang accurately predicted global slowdown will drag Henseng index , to test  8000-9000-9500
Blue, Red   chips, High tech, H shares  most active  Stocks Prices compression, investment opportunties, risks:Weekend edition
WHampoa will be down  to  40-50 -CHeKong,down to 40-50   HSBC and Henseng bank,down to 70-  80 China mobil test15- 20-   Unicom down to 3-  5   , facing selling pressure ,accurately predicted by Dr. Huang recommended buy predicted.  ,  SHK  40-60-   premature for property market rally ,property,  finance banking stocks are hurt by  nonperformance loan due to plunge stocks, rising US  interest rates GDP will be slowdown to 2 % in the second half  and next year follow US slowdown  and stock market retreat 20 % Redchip index test 900-  1000 , H shares will folow B share plunge 30- %
 Merger/acquisition performance, investment strategy:
PCCLF aggressive acquisition of HKT and othersare subject to post mergre integration   to improve profitability to support it's stock prices recent asset selling to reduce debt hurt stock prices, plunged to  3. GEM share  Tom.com 600 million merge China Gounzhou 163.com are too expensive and will not improve it's operating loss of 40 million, stock prices will test new low.
IPO Dr. Huang  accurately predicted GEM share rally  ended, Fudan electronic emphasized on low profit consumer electronics stock  around 3 dollars, Beida  green bird, at 22 are overpriced, whith  huge loss, little revenue, the stock will be down below  5 China SHanchon Pharmacy share up 76 % to 1.9, Chinese medicine facing sharp competition in China, share  prices are falling with decline profit. Shanchun share growth is limited  at 2( not as attractive as other H and red chipshares like PetroChina at the same prices, whil Pan ocean hotel will be down below  one dollar, yinan internet is not attrative as H shares. is very profitable HK exchange will be in 10-15 GEM shares and  Excel will test 1.00 
Singapore Strait Times index  :1300- 1480 : Blue chip banking( , properties , chips shares stocks    follow US Nasdaq resume slide  to test 1100- 1200- due to    falling properties prices and  loan, slumping stocks , housing markets and IC prices
Japan . economy and money supply   , Dr. Huang accurate predicted that due to   US recovery, weak Yen will boost Japan export and economy. . It grew 5.6 % in the first quarter 2002,. However, US dollar plunge and slowdown in demand in the second quarter will hurt Japan export and economy, led to bank of   Japan increase money supply   unemployment  at   5.4%  it's still weak domestic economy, weak consumer spending and demand,  GDP will face contraction Nikkei index follow US Nasdaq plunge  to 9000-10000 due to banking industry soaring bad loan,  strong Yen resulted  export decline,  declining profit. plunging stock prices Japan's  auditiing and shares  back   banking industry to solve the bad loan will drag banking finance stock for 50 % correction and rebound,  Nieeki support at 8000- 8500 and for banking and export stocks.   Bank of Japan www.boj.or.jp/en Japan economy will be drag by US into 1991 style    recession
Japanese Yen currency :  Yen  between 120- 125  US and Japan  recovery, strong Yen hurt export resulted shrinking and trade surplus   support  
Nikkei  Stock Index:  Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance, bad loan drag banking, properties prices for 30% correction  will drag by  Dow  consolidate 7000-7500-8000  Nasdaq 1000-1250  and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction Nikkei will  consolidation 8000-9300-
S. Korea economy, daily financial markets, stock prices
S. Korea economy,   corporate debt (especially the chaebol) debt still runnig as high as 200 %of equity and 50 % of GNP. Seoul stock Korea will face slowdown and falling prices due to US and EURO    slowdwon and  IC  prices  plunge   GDP growth supported by strong housing demand  250 % increase in home loan and 15 % increase in prices  GDP will be down to 4.6  %
click for Korea economy and  Seoul Stock Index simulation
S. Korea domesitcs demand overheated, household load doubled, housing prices up 15 %, resulted defaults, facing bubble burst, Seoul stock index  Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs , overheated domestics economy, facing interest rate hike will hurt old economy   corporate earning performance will drag by Dow  consolidate 7000- 7500-8000 , Nasdaq 1000- 1100-1350-  and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops   Seoul stock index  consolidation  550- 650  despite US analyst specualtate on overoptimistics second half chips rebound   indicated  by  Intel , PC, network earning decline will  drag  Korea  high priced  chips, PC , telecom earning. stocks prices and export  facing slowdwon, put pressure on Won exchange rate and Seoul stock index    doubled (as chips prices doubled WON  will be traded between 1180- 1250,   Rising oil prices   t will hurt  WON   
EURO economy, daily  financial markets, stock prices
  EURO rebound   by weak EURO,  and US recovery Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs strong EURO will hurt old economy   corporate earning performance will drag   Euro stocks  35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops EURO   will be traded  0.95-1.00, EURO out of recession GDP will be below 1.5 % due to strong EURO ,EURO US , ASian  slowdown
EURO stocks follow US stocks  retreat     reflecting US, EURO slowdown and strong EURO  resulted prices cutting, earing  and export decline,  click for EURO    Monetary Policy Impact on 11 member country  Growth, money, currency, stocks, bond  prices
EURO, UK   hot Finance, IT stocks  ADR shares simulation, forecasts, investment strategy
EURO, UK   hot Finance, IT stocks  ADR shares simulation, forecasts, investment strategy
Market Bull psychology, strategy:
Market bull  believe bull market  year end , post election rally, January rally    continue to push Dow to  12500 and even 20,000, Nasdaq will challenge 5100 again
Bull Strategy: Think all the bad news are over, use  sectors rotation among high tech and finance groups sepculate on any economic  and Bush win the president news to speculate on Drug, tobaco, energy stocks, MSFT, JPM, finance stocks( and  GDP, CPI, PPI, job data)indicating economic slowdown to justify no rate hike or even rate cut and corporate merger and on track earning  PG and Acatel,INTC and IBM, JDSU and upgrade  news( like recnet financial industry   Use JPM Citigroup, Chase, Goldman Sach, UBS and optic fibers JDSU, Corning, Nortel merge and last week's JDSU upbeat earning ignoring GTW,DELL, NITE, Catterpillar, UAL,  KODAK,Apple , LU, HD, GM, IBM, BAC, CMB, Lucnet   disappointing earning  and   more to come ,   still insist S&P index will be up 18 % by year end,  Bargain hunting in finance,   chips(NVDA), optic fibers, networks(JNPR, PALM stocks( down 30 % recently) even  Nasdaq  broke 3200 support testing 3000, The market will not turnaround, until the bulls died  
Market Bear psychology and strategy:
Markets bears worried about  soaring oil price and weak EURO cutting into old economics profits,economic slowdown may lead to corporate earning decline, job cuts, recession,  Decline PPI, CPI indicating faling corporate sales and   profit for both the old and new economy.Intel marked begening of global slowdwon and earning decline in old and new economy    INTC, EK, APPL DELL, LU, HD stock plunge up to 50 % aftter earning decline, more to come . Sell   ino the rally, buy  until Dow plunge to below 9000, Nasdaq down to 2500 for long term investment. Bear dominant the markets as earning decline news drag    market down   ,(retail,finance,  and  PC,  chips, telecom petrochemicals, airlines) announced earning growth decline in the second half, old economy will be suffered worse impact by the slowdown (further hurt by weak EURO and rising oil prices)than the new economy( The old economy productivity have been flat, while computer, semiconductor, telecommunication productivity gained 50 %) .  and US Chase Manhatten, Bank America shown slowdown, dissapointing retail and PC sales, final quarter and next year earning decline due to Rate hike impact on  US Industrial demand and profitability, stock prices and investment strategy, change of presidency will not improve any earning outllook, chasing after the stocks will be another bear trap
Nasdaq Markets using CIEN upbeat earning (up 5 time)and overoptimistic overnext year growth to speculate on fiber optics stocks,CIEN, GLW, JDSU stock, soared up to 60 % , pushed NAsdaq to 2900 again , ignoring PC sales facing down 15 %, chips sales are suffering are overheated will face profit takinig, to giveup it's agian, test 2500 again    Dr. Huang accurately predicted on hotstocksAfter technical rebound to 2950  on NOK give overoptimistic bullish estimate on next 3 year year 30 % sales gain,  will  test 2500-2750    ,PC sales slump 30 % at Apple and  Gateway lead to 4 th quareter loss stock plunge to 15. chips, network  stocks  Drag b INTC Applied materials , ALTR , AMD, d  NTAP warning on fourth quarter slowdwon lead to crash of high flier network  stocks plunge 50 %, BRCM, JNPR, ITWO,   already broke  100, as predicted, It will  retest 40-60 after strong rebound   that DRAM plunge below 4 chips stocks overpriced) .  Dr. Huang accurately predicted  price war among IT will drag Nasdaq to new lows:   INTC will   face AMD in pentium 4  vs Athlon and palomerlo, in 20- 50 % price cut, NVDA face ATI in graphic card, ORCL face SEBL , SAP, PSFT, in high end business application , HWP, face DELL, Compaq, IBM and more to come will ;ead Nasdaq  restest 2800 drag by HWP  poor earning and high flier biotech shares (PDLI, HGSI) fiber optics, networks(JNPR, ARBA, ITWO,  BRCM, test 100))  as predicted by Dr Huang that the market use overoptimistic CSCO, QCOM,IBM, INTC, JDSU , JNPR, CPQ earning  and post election rally resulted overpriced semiconductors, computer, fiiber optics, networks stocks prices   on  most active hotstocks  and  in Aug  that fiber optices high flier JDSU, SDLI, CIEN, GLW, JNPT, ARBA, ITWO are overpriced, ignoring slowdown  and falling prices next year , stocks should be plunge  50 % to bel ow   100.   ,  The poor fiber optices sales outlook will drag the group for further consolidation most active hotstocks recommed  to buy   MSFT, NOK, INTC , TSM, UMC, NVDA, ALTR , JDSU, JNPR  Nasdaq around 2750  these share up 40 %   the markets are overoptimistics about INTC, NOK, MSFT and fiber optic  next 6 months earning growth, ignoring slowdown in demand and price cutting ono chips, PC  as   INTC, AMD , fiber oopticsprices cutting just started, which will hurt earning and extend to PC industry) AOL, YHOO stock plunge drag high flier network, fiber optices stocks resume correction due to over supply, prices cutting  hotstocks, Global Infotech 100 strategy and  Silicon Valley ITas Nasdaq around   2500    
Yahoo 132 milion merge Taiwan internet portal  KIMO will expand it's Taiwan market, will have hard time penetrate into China and Hong Kong markets and contribute any profit to Yahoo near termYahoo stock will be testing 50 again 
IPO OSA strategy: IFCN, vacuum pump maker will be hurt by economic slowdwon too, will be dwon 50 % bel ow  it's IPO price to 7, most  recent IT and biotech IPO suffered huge loss will be plunge 50 % below IPO prices
Dr. Huang accurately predicted  on  information technology IPO that Chips CPU maker Transmeta (TMTA)  cheap crusoe challenge INTC Pentium, this startup co with revneue only 4 million but huge loss of 41 million, the stock prices specualted by instututional investors on new with Microsoft, CHina market potential soared from 21 to 47 is overpriced will plunge 50 % to 21 
Rate hike threat :Tighten credit by banks in the third  quarter already lead to loan demand growth down form 12. 5% to 7.5 in July.  Manufacturing coooff with NAPM index down to 4 8 signifiantly cut demand ( except energy sector) , falling prices in chips, auto, retails lead to Aug PPI, CPI decline dispite June-July stock rally Nasdaq rebound from 3000 to 4 275:   pushed  Sept. consumer spending up 1.1 %and business spending peaking and retail sales up 0.7 % , However recent stock markets plunge due to worry about earning decline will cut into consumer spending, achieving soflanding goal , take pressure off Fed to raise the rate

"Two master hands controlling global stock markets prices"     Hosted by Dr. Warren Huang
1.Operations Simulation Analysis of   Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on US economic indicators, daily   interest rates, currency, stock prices
Go to Chinese edition of sina investment forum Q  & A for  Daily US  dollars, blue chips, IPO,   interneet, biotech  stocks prices  simulation, investment tracking ( was offered to 30 million China investors during 1994-1998(English edition will be ready soon)

NOV 22, 1999
Q: Stocks keeps going up, are we going have crash ?
Answer : Dr. Huang :  The crazier it get, the riskier we will have crash only apply to those stocks like Internet IPOs, and China stocks. As matter of fact, we already seen crash Hong Kong style on China Prosperity (CPIH)the stocksorared from 1 to 80 then crashed to 10 in three days, (, refer to this week paper on How China stocks controlled by two master hands ) US stocks is entering final stages of rotation of interests to blue chips stocks( All my recommendations last week on IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Biogen, Amgen, Aol, Yahoo go up more than 10 to 20 % ) before the year end and early next year when corporate profit decline due to rising interest rates in US and EURO and inventory built-up due to Y2K. We will see big markets corrections, especially those crazy stocks in Nasdaq, the high fliers will face more than 50 % correction

Dec. 5 1999
Q: Will US  economy going into bubble burst as Japan ?
A: Dr. Huang : Dr Huang presented his US and Japan bubble burst simulation on Thailand's globalization conference on Oct. 22, Bangkok, and May 15 Macao central bank governor conference and Washington DC, business, government risk management conference that :   US economic bubble burst twice in 1980 and 1990 all due to high inflation resulted by  excessive money supply while oil prices doubled. How ever this time oil prices doubled, with inflation ony at 2.7 %, due to Asian slowdown. However, excessive US money supply and low interest rate already pushed Dow Jones and housing prices doubled, even at all time high productivity as it happen in Japan in the 1980's , with low inflation only at 2.4 %, and high productivity, with Japanese appliance, auto dominant global markets ,allow Bank of Japan kept low interest rate at 3.5 % and high money supply growth at 13 %, pushed Nikkei from 25000 to 38000, and soaring housing prices. finally, forced BOJ to tighten the money supply growth to 5 %,Nikkkei crashed to 20,000, bubble burst in 1990.
Therefore, Booming stocks and housing prices will eventually leading to bubble burst as Greenspan repeated on his Aug 27, Oct 22, Nov. 4, speech
Q. Will Fed raised interest rate in Feb?
A: yes, if the stocks and housing market and oil price  continue it's current uptrend, Fed will definitely raise the rate
Q: How can we invest in EURO stocks:
A: As Dr Huang recommended EMU stocks on his speech to Nov 2 Rome's post EURO finance, banking strategy conference( sponsored by Morgan bank, EURO stocks up more than 50 % since then.
However, EURO has inflation problem too (hurt by soaring oil prices), as it raised interest rate 0.5 % to slowdown and money supply and growth . Therefore, it's stocks will go along with Dow Jones in future
corrections.  It will be good time to invest in European High tech growth fund or ADR shares, like German Fund and others. 
Jan 28, 2000 Question on When US economy wil slowdon ?
Dr. Warren Huang reply on the timing of US economic slowdown:
Usually, the economy will slowdown 3 months after interest rate hike through monetary tightening, assumeing the stock markets retreat after the interest rate hike, as we have een housing starts, construction, spending, durable good order all down 10 % in last Oct. after June interest rate hike and July Aug, stock markets 10 % correction. However, the stock markets rebound and continue making new high, due to 200 billion cash infjection into the monetary system for Y2K protection last Nov. resulted excessive money supply and the foreigh capital pouring into US stocks, fueling housing demand and prices, pushed up consumer, business demand in Nov. and year end rebound in housing, and tight labor market, overheated economy with GNP above 5.8 %
Thats why Greenspan has to raise interest rate in Feb and more to come until slowdown in consumer and business spending.
With Y2K over, Fed took back to money return to tightening , that why US stocks retreat in early January Therefore Dow and Nasdaq must make minimum 10 % correction and stay for at least two months, it will be reflected on consumer, business spending, unemployment, We will see slowdown after March , or in the second quarter, GDP down from 5 % to 2.5 %

8 Paper series OSA Global Financial Market SImulation and Investment RIsks Management

2.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy , WTO impact on China economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency, stock prices
Go to Chinese edition of sina investment forum Q  & A for  Daily Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B, China ADR shares stocks simulation, investment tracking ( was offered to 30 million China investors during 1994-1998(English edition will be ready soon)
3.Chinese edition of Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy , WTO impact on   Taiwan economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency, stock prices
4. Chinese edition Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Hong Kong  economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency,blue, red chips, China stocks, H shares, GEM stock prices
5.Chinese edition of Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on commodity, financial futures, derivatives stock prices and risk management
6.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on corporate pre/post mergers performance, stock prices and risk management
7.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on banking, finance,  real estate properties industries performance and  stock prices and risk management
8.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on IPO performance, stock prices, and  risk management

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