osawh  OSA   Recession Fighting Strategy by Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy , QE2 Impact on Global Strategic Recession , Recovery. Financial , Credit , Debt Crisis Forecast,  tracking the root causes , onset , recovery and early warning of double dip housing, stock market crash and recession Impact Simulation   and recession fighting innovation breakthrough in Strategic Investment, Supply Chain Recession Risks Management ( strategic workshops program), Saving billions dollar supply chain cost, avoided trillion dollar investment and hedging loss
This OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis predicted 2009 recession in early 2008
Again , We are running more than 60 % facing recession  in first half 2012, and increasing to 80 % by the end of this year
 Identify Emerging Market Trend months ahead of Global Credit, Debt, Financial Crisis, Double Dip  Housing Slump and Economic Recession and it Impact  to  Maximize Risks Adjusted Return, tracking, simulate monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on unemployment, GDP, national, regional housing prices, commodity, equities prices in  recession

Quantitative top down country, industry, company specific macro-financial  decisions modeling  through Proactive Structural Dynamic monetary, econmic, fiscal  impact  on  macro-financial commodities future ,housing, equities asset prices bubbles and root causes of global credit,  financial  crisis, risks early warning mechanism and  Valuation Operations Simulation Analysis  (OSA) implemented by top down strategic (top management CEO, CFO, VP)) OSA teams and bottom up execution (managerial OSA teams)
by OSA proactive structural asset pricing pioneer Dr/Prof.  Warren Huang Global Finance, Capital Markets, Macroeconomic  Integration Proactive Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping with policy tri-lemma problem in inflation/deflation/recession caused by global capital markets  asset  prices bubbles Proactive Recession fighting Strategy
Institutional Investors  Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance  CPA/CFA/CFO training
Global Strategic Management   Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master hands controlling global macro  economy , finance, capital market prices for QFII/QDII managers, private, institutional investors  investment  workshops achieve sustainable profit growth Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession , unemployment impact on housing, banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
list of best and worst US cites in recession recovery
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo

Comment to Yahoo Finance by Warren Huang Sept. 1, 2011
From our demand side oil price forecast, global oil demand decline as China, Asian slowdown Japan, US, Euro facing double dip recession.
Oil price will following gasoline demand , price peaking out now , as US peaking demand ends at Labor day nest week, oil price will be heading for 70 and gasoliine for 220 ,as we are getting close to 2012 recession.
Gold price will have hard time break 1900- 2000, due to the double dip recession fear, despite weak dollar ( it is upoorted by EURO debt crisis and Japan recession due to Tsunami.
Gold price must make good correction as recession getting closer, its first stop is 1700.
It may trace to 1500- 1600, if recession fear getting real oil price plunge below 70, and inflation cooled.
details on www.osawh.com/goldf.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm www.osawh.com/recession.html

• • • Wall Street Journal Market Beat  1:39 pm August 4, 2011 Warren Huang wrote:
    I predicted on Wall Street Journal real time economic blog last Oct. that US excessive rate cuts, liquidity and QE2 created stock, commodity prices bubble will not boost housing market and real economy, it only further inflate the personal business, government debt. As consumer spending decline in June due to soaring energy, food cost, GDP dorp to 0.4 %, in Q1, and 1.3 % in Q2,ISM plunge to 50.5,The new debt ceiling will lead to further spending cuts, with less economic stimulus, and hard to justify any further QE ahead,, DOw Jone retest 11,000, SP 500 retest 1150 , NASDAQ retest 2500 China, Global rate hikes responding to soaring commodities, food, energy prices and excessive, ECB debt crisis led to housing, economic into  60 % probability of 2012 double dip recession liquidity details Oil, commodities prices facing bubble burst repeating 2008- 2009 on http://www.osawh.com/recession.html

We are running out of option this time to avoid the double dip housing , market slump and economic recession as indicated by
failure of QE2 drove interest rate to near zero record low fail to stimulate the economy, the job market and save the housing market, it only drive stock commodity oil,  market prices and inflation with cutting into consumer spending drag economy into recession, Fed used all it bail out money to save the banking finance market , government spend all its stimulus money lead to 14 trillion debt, compare 200 billion debt last time ,we are still facing GDP only  Q1, 0.3 %, Q2 1.3% with ISM manufacturing supply chain index plunge to 50.4 recession and service sector index to 52.2, consumer spending down 0.2 % in June , consumer and investor sentiment all pointing to new low, CISCO and Merck will layoff almost 30,000 even July unemployment rate drop to 9.1 % which is lagging indicators, we will facing much higher unemployment  return to 9.5 % in the month ahead
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/government-t-save-market-time-151809226.html
 Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing , debt  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related downgrade and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted double  dip recession, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee  se , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
2010- 2011  currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US dollar steady in current  narrow range against major currency  despite QE2, only appreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.40- 6.50
Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.4- 6.5, Singapore 1.20- 1.30  Taiwan NT 28.5- 30.5  Won 1055- 1200  Indonesia  8500- 9000  India 43.5- 45   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 28.5- 30
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 15 % in 2011 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2011
 Oil price will be peaking out 66- 86 after QE2 ended in 2011    3 Q  and 71- 89 in 4 Q   2011
Gasoline price will be   220- 270 in  3 Q, 190- 220 in 4Q , 2011
heating oil price will be 210- 270, 3 Q, 210- 230 in 4Q   2011
Natural   price will be rebound from3.5-4.50   3 Q, 5.0- 6.  in 4Q   2011
Gold price will be rebound from 1550- 1750 in 3 Q,  1500- 1750  in 4Q   2011
US dollar decline due to downgrade but   continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK  support US dollar  1.35- 1.45  EURO ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.42 in 4 Q   2011
and 1.55- 1.69   pound in   in 3, 4 Q 2011
US dollar 70- 80    3Q,  70- 76-   in   4 Q, 2011 due to Japan recovery, US double recession
China stable, consistant, gradual independent RMB policy  will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.3- 6.45 against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package

• Warren Huang comment on Wall Street Real Time Economics 2:38 pm October 6, 2010 " Buying government securities, rate cuts will not boost economy, but create liquidity, debt, and asset prices bubbles

Pioneer Dr. Warren Huang 30 years proactive structural global strategic  recession fighting strategy, saved trillions dollar market loss, and generating trillion dollars profit , cut billion dollar manufacturing  supply chain cost for 80 countries, 30 million global government, banking, finance, enterprises executives, investors.
Proactive structural supply demand cut billion dollar cost in recession workshop
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang predict Sept. 2007 on  Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog that  US excessive  rate cuts,  trillions cash infusion into banking system bail out can not stop housing price slump , credit, financial crisis  deep  recession and  lead to double dip  recession impact on mortgage , credit,  financial crisis well into 2012

Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivative  s Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with US facing -3.5 % , Japan -7.5 %, Euro -4 %. UK, -4 %,China 7 %, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, -4 %, Taiwan, Singapore - 7 %drag housing price slump, credit, financial crisis, default despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,   L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
Phase III  post recession recovery :
China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices.
 recession recovery. despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,  
Asian economic rebound lead by China due to excessive liquidity resulted housing, stock , oil, commodities market bubbles, forced China into Macro- housing market price control, credit tightening and Asian central banks rate hikes. EURO debt crisis cut government spend, drag GDP below 1 %, lead to Japan  drag by excessive personal, business, government debt,  and strong Yen facing double recession While US record housing prices  bubble  burst , housing prices plunged over 30 %   unemployment soared to 9.5- 10 % ,mounting personal, business, government debt and plunging confidence continue into 2012, facing trilemma of inflation/deflation with CPI  at 1- 3 % and double dip in housing slump and recession ( GDP below 1 % . L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
for   Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition Recession Strategy  summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass ( Housing, equities, commodities, Bond) Assets,  FOrex, commodities, oil, metals Derivatives prices mechanism and asset  Allocation Strategy                   by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com    Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and 1 Q 2009 ( including inventory) -3.8 % exclude GDP) and 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 9 -10% and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20-40  % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     US GDP shrink -3.8 % 4 Q 2008    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged from 12 % to 6.8 % will extend to first half around 6 %, gradually pick up second half to 8 % 2009

 US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 36, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to  33 and jobless rate to7.2% and Dow Jones plunged 40  %, 4Q contract 0.5%    warned, predict by the  author Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 5 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact of business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
( Fed agree Dec. 2008 and Nobel Prize Economic Winner Prof. Krugman agree with Dr. Huang that rate cuts to zero, inject liquidity and bail out banking system will not, can not stop recession till 2010) http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2  
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70，Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Applications: Rigorous structural, deterministic dynamics internal risks expert systems for global banking, finance, corporate and government Operations Simulation Analysis have been developed, implemented for Global Government, Banking, Financial, Corporate reform, reengineering and daily risks simulation and control decisions in e-commerce, e-business online applications Maximize Virtual Enterprises Capital, raw material, energy, human Resources Profits Planning

A. Government, Central Banks: Tracking daily US, Asian Pacific, European, South American government, central banks fiscal, monetary policy, growth and price stability control, unemployment, investor, consumer confidence, spreading, asset bubble,   tracking capital flow, business cycle, and financial systems and markets risks
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market , Housing, Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998.  
 Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macro economic cycle and Financial Markets Dynamics OSA
Development and implementation OSA/Global and OSA/US simulation systems
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy, Oil prices shocks Impact on Macro economics Risks Simulations
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth: OSAlobal Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation
Dynamic tracking simulation of last 1980, 1990, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on inflation, old and new economy corporate earning and global stock prices,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending, confidence.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate, unempolyment )
Housing price bubbles, mortgage default simulation
B. Banking and Finance: Tracking monetary policy impact on daily financial systems risks through markets prices simulation, supporting banking, finance industry regulation, supervision in daily credit, markets, liquidity risks control, corporate analysis in daily capital investment risks,
C. Corporate Profit Margin : Tracking monetary policy impact on daily procurement, inventory, production, products innovation, marketing, sales, profit margin risks strategy, and TQM cost reduction, productivity improvements.

Strategy: Thousands structural deterministic dynamics models have been developed out of last 20 years daily US, Asian, European Wall Street Journal, IMF data, NPRA, daily global central banks and banking and financial industries operating information, decision analysis, global corporate management staff's operating expertise, global players market forces psychology as the knowledge base, applying the latest finance, neoclassic monetary economics, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural net, based expert systems These systems simulate global central banks monetary policy impact on daily global economy (prices and growth stability), capital flow(FDI), financial markets interest rates, currency, interest rates, currency exchange rates, bond, commodities, financial derivatives, commodities, crude oil, feedstock prices, corporate profit margin, stock prices, defaults risks with average error below 1.5%. :

                                                        Copy 2008 www.osawh.com /Dr.Warren Huang