osawh  OSA   Recession Strategy by Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Strategic Recession , Recovery. Financial Crisis Stimulus , Bailout  Forecast, and Impact Simulation early warning and recession fighting innovation breakthrough in Strategic Investment, Supply Chain Recession Management ( strategic workshops program), Saving billions dollar supply chain cost, avoided trillion dollar investment and hedging loss
 Identify Emerging Market Trend months ahead of Global Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession and it Impact  to  Maximize Risks Adjusted Return, tracking, simulate unemployment, GDP impact on national, regional housing prices, commodity prices in  recession

by Quantitative top down country, industry, company specific macro-financial  decisions modeling  through Proactive Structural Dynamic Financial and commodities future ,housing, equities asset prices bubbles ,mechanism Risks Valuation Operations Simulation Analysis  (OSA) implemented by top down strategic (top management CEO, CFO, VP)) OSA teams and bottom up execution (managerial OSA teams)
by OSA proactive structural asset pricing pioneer Dr/Prof.  Warren Huang Global Finance, Capital Markets, Macroeconomic  Integration Proactive Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping with policy tri-lemma problem in global capital markets  growth without asset  prices bubbles Proactive Recession fighting Strategy
Institutional Investors  Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance  CPA/CFA/CFO training
Global Strategic Management   Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master hands controlling global macro  economy , finance, capital market prices for QFII/QDII managers, private, institutional investors  investment  workshops achieve sustainable profit growth Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession , unemployment impact on housing, banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
list of best and worst US cites in recession recovery
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo

Pioneer Dr. Warren Huang 30 years proactive structural global strategic  recession fighting strategy, saved trillions dollar market loss, and generating trillion dollars profit , cut billion dollar manufacturing  supply chain cost for 80 countries, 30 million global government, banking, finance, enterprises executives, investors.
Proactive structural supply demand cut billion dollar cost in recession workshop
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang predict Sept. 2007 on  Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog that  US rate cuts, cash infusion into banking system bail out can not stop housing price slump , credit, financial crisis resulted deep result recession and   recession impact on mortgage , credit,  financial crisis well into 2009

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with US facing -3.5 % , Japan -7.5 %, Euro -4 %. UK, -4 %,China 7 %, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, -4 %, Taiwan, Singapore - 7 %drag housing price slump, credit, financial crisis, default, stock market bear market  W shape correction in summer 2009, despite 30 % rally and L shape slow recession recovery into next year
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices.
 recession recovery.
for   Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition Recession Strategy  summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass ( Housing, equities, commodities, Bond) Assets,  FOrex, commodities, oil, metals Derivatives prices mechanism and asset  Allocation Strategy                   by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com    Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and 1 Q 2009 ( including inventory) -3.8 % exclude GDP) and 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     US GDP shrink -3.8 % 4 Q 2008    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged from 12 % to 6.8 % will extend to first half around 6 %, gradually pick up second half to 8 % 2009

 US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 36, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to  33 and jobless rate to7.2% and Dow Jones plunged 40  %, 4Q contract 0.5%    warned, predict by the  author Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 5 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact of business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
( Fed agree Dec. 2008 and Nobel Prize Economic Winner Prof. Krugman agree with Dr. Huang that rate cuts to zero, inject liquidity and bail out banking system will not, can not stop recession till 2010) http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2  
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70，Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Applications: Rigorous structural, deterministic dynamics internal risks expert systems for global banking, finance, corporate and government Operations Simulation Analysis have been developed, implemented for Global Government, Banking, Financial, Corporate reform, reengineering and daily risks simulation and control decisions in e-commerce, e-business online applications Maximize Virtual Enterprises Capital, raw material, energy, human Resources Profits Planning

A. Government, Central Banks: Tracking daily US, Asian Pacific, European, South American government, central banks fiscal, monetary policy, growth and price stability control, unemployment, investor, consumer confidence, spreading, asset bubble,   tracking capital flow, business cycle, and financial systems and markets risks
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market , Housing, Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998.  
 Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macro economic cycle and Financial Markets Dynamics OSA
Development and implementation OSA/Global and OSA/US simulation systems
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy, Oil prices shocks Impact on Macro economics Risks Simulations
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth: OSAlobal Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation
Dynamic tracking simulation of last 1980, 1990, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on inflation, old and new economy corporate earning and global stock prices,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate, unempolyment )
Housing price bubbles, mortgage default simulation
B. Banking and Finance: Tracking monetary policy impact on daily financial systems risks through markets prices simulation, supporting banking, finance industry regulation, supervision in daily credit, markets, liquidity risks control, corporate analysis in daily capital investment risks,
C. Corporate Profit Margin : Tracking monetary policy impact on daily procurement, inventory, production, products innovation, marketing, sales, profit margin risks strategy, and TQM cost reduction, productivity improvements.

Strategy: Thousands structural deterministic dynamics models have been developed out of last 20 years daily US, Asian, European Wall Street Journal, IMF data, NPRA, daily global central banks and banking and financial industries operating information, decision analysis, global corporate management staff's operating expertise, global players market forces psychology as the knowledge base, applying the latest finance, neoclassic monetary economics, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural net, based expert systems These systems simulate global central banks monetary policy impact on daily global economy (prices and growth stability), capital flow(FDI), financial markets interest rates, currency, interest rates, currency exchange rates, bond, commodities, financial derivatives, commodities, crude oil, feedstock prices, corporate profit margin, stock prices, defaults risks with average error below 1.5%. :

                                                        Copy 2008 www.osawh.com /Dr.Warren Huang