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Welcome  to the World of  Proactive, Structural, Dynamics US/Global, Macro-economic Control, Mortgage rate, Unemployment, Wealth Effect Impact on Housing, Real Estate Properties and Construction Materials Supply, Demand, Prices Market Forces Mechanism Forecasts, Simulation, Prevention  Early -Warning
 Current US housing recession cycle simulation forecasts  ( workshop ) 

Proactive structural simulation of global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on GDP, inflation, interest rates, currency, commodity,
oil, energy, downstream 20 industrial sectors business cycles demand, prices mechanism, housing prices bubbles, avoided betting on the wrong side of interest rates, MBS bond yield spread, ,  housing loan demand and sub-prime default crisis , prices, predicted  years, and 3 months ahead last 20 years global housing price bubbles, economic-housing boom and bust cycles currency, financial crisis China 1994-96 and current US, China macro-economic control, economic overheating , 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and  excessive , tax  resulted  55 trillion wealth effect drive US coastal( New York, San Francisco, San Diego ) housing prices bubble almost  triple  since 2000 , doing too little, too late in  rate hikes to deflate the bubble., leading to 2006 housing bubble burst, recession. billion  HSBC.sub-prime mortgage loan default and Bear Stearn 2 mortgage bond hedge fund bankruptcy  
Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Real Estate Valuation/Forecast
Tracking last 20 years US, China, Asian monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on interest ,mortgage rate, unemployment, currency exchange rate, inflation, equities wealth gain, national regional housing price index , REIT index and residential, commercial mortgage housing prices, rentals and loan default
These models forecasted June 2007 Global financial engineering risk management conference, Peking Univ. Beijing,and on last Sept. Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog that despite Fed rate cuts,  US medium,  high end housing price and housing and REIT indices slump 20- 30 %, MBS rate spread, write down widening continue into summer 2008, sub-prime mortgage crisis spread into high drag economy into recession, stock markets into bear market correction

Wall Street journal Economic Blog. Sep 27, 2007

Polarized US housing markets: Despite US housing markets bubbles burst, entering recession housing starts and sales plunge 40 % since Jan 2006, billions dollars sub-prime and hedge fund defaults in July 2007.
However high priced Jumbo mortgage and housing in New York City and major US financial districts and IT cities ( San Francisco, Silicone Valley )  benefited by investment banking stock prices tripled fat 26 billion bonus and IT bubble ( Goggle  and Apple stock price up 500 % HP up 400 %  times lead to housing prices  soared 40 % June 2007, continue bowing the bubble nearing burst  (  more than tripled from 2002)
Proactive, Structural US/China/Global Monetary Policy and Wealth Effect impact on  US housing and equities prices bubbles identification, burst, recovery and    burst, crisis early warning simulation ( Proactive artificial Intelligence neural net based multivariate nonlinear regression models and Proactive structural VAR( Vector Auto-Regressive  ) and Exponential GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Hetroskedastic ) financial econometrics models tracking forecast months, years ahead of  last 20 years US/China/Global asset bubble burst history with correlation constant of  0.99 , maximum error below 4 %, presented to 24 global central banks governors,( China, US Fed, ECB, Asian) risk management conferences and in Peking University, China, 2007 June 16
Dr. Warren Huang thousands proactive structural dynamic simulators tracking, forecast China/US/Global US Fed ignoring 55 trillion housing and equities wealth gain resulted housing bubbles burst , sub-prime loan and hedging fund default and jumbo loan high prices housing continue inflating the price bubbles up 40 % in US, 70 % in China, Shenzhen will result further housing bubbles burst markets recession drag down equities market and bubble bursts lead to eventual US economic recession next year 

Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994, 400 % stock and housing markets prices gain resulted trillion dollar wealth resulted  excess liquidity  housing bubble burst Jan 2006,  with unsold inventory reaching 1.8 million units all time high and housing start plunged 38 % from Jan 2.33 million peak with sub-prime problem spreading to loan default will continue into 2008 drag US stock markets correction, plunged 500 points week of July 25  facing deflation, bubble burst  market correction
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OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors, financial management, econometric conferences on "Simulation of Global Financial, Banking , properties prices bubble Crisis, Recovery, Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble early Warning since 1998,  offer speech at Beijin University global finance conference on Global capital market, asset prices simulation, risk management and full day workshop May 27-29, Beijin accurately predict US and global stocks, mutual fund overheat for 30-50 % correction , ABS downgrade.   He also speak to Asian central banks, stock exchanges, securities, properties, banking executives on Global asset prices, bubble simulation, risk management for Asian Business Forum's Asset backed  Securitization conference Sept 30, 2002 introduced his thousands  of proprietary strategic OSA simulators maximize global investment banking profits at minimum risks through tracking accurately last 20 years monetary, economic , fiscal policy, wealth effect, bubble burst   impact on global capital markets, real estate property  prices, bubbles,  investment banking decisions during crisis :  book full day workshop

Global Economy and Financial, Housing, real estate properties  Markets Prices Simulation for Global Central Banks, Investment Banking  and Finance  Crisis Real Options Risk OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis Control,  for government, regulation, supervision and accounting malpractices early-warning:

Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks  Monetary, economic, fiscal  Policy Impact on   daily money, currency,  Housing real estate properties, building material, supply, demand,  , prices, corporate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets ,   including the causes, onset, spread, recovery of  energy crisis, Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech   prices bubble bursts, recession, recovery  impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial systems stability  with applications to global banking and finance , corporate  pre/post merger integration performance improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks markets, banking and insurance, real estate, construction  companies

Global Housing, real estate Properties, building material  Prices, Bubble simulation, risk management
Housing Properties , building materials demand, prices bubble has been related to wealth effect from stock markets capital gain, money supply growth and interest rates

US wealth effect impact on housing prices bubbles boom and bust recession cycles.
These equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1994, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 60 % in 2000 with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These will repeat  bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %, trillion dollar saving and loan defaults.
However Fed 6  rate hike led to new economy bubble  burst in early  2000 and 2001 recession (accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on www.osawh.com/ www.sina.com ), Nasdaq plunged 80 %, Dow loss 30 %, resulted 7.5 trillion wealth effect loss drag US house prices plunge 20 % in silicon valley. However, 13 rate cuts to 1.0 % and trillion dollar tax cuts were excessive, led to  US  49 trillion dollar wealth effect drive up stock rally ( Nasdaq more than double from 1100 to 2780, Dow Jones doubled from 7400 to 14000 and coastal area housing prices more than  triple  since 2000 ( San Diego up 237 %, Los Angeles up 218 %, Miami up 205 %, Las Vegas up 203 %, DC up 97 %, NY up 134 %, SF up 178 %, Boston up 144 %)  wealth gain support the housing markets   soaring building materials ( Plywood prices doubled, lumber up 60 %, and soaring oil prices.
US Fed  17 graduate rate hikes is doing to little too late to cut the consumer , business demand and housing demand  to deflate the bubble
with business spending up 23 %, continue blowing the bubble to burst, lead to housing bubbles burst starting Jan 2006, housing start plunged 40 %  and stabilized  by soaring stock markets wealth gain at current 1.46 million. However sub-prime loan default problem will spread into mortgage loan markets and mortgage bond,  trillion credit derivatives markets default as housing recession extend into 2008,
dragging US stocks for correction and economic recession, which lead to 1000 point plunge in Dow Jones recently

OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. and soaring building material housing properties prices in 1990.  The housing  bubble burst with prices plunged 70 % since 1991 till 2001 as Nikkei plunged to 7600 last year resulted trillion dollar banking nonperformance loan.   Despite  benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500  in 2000 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 7700 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply   Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 5.2 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980’s as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound from 13000 to 23000 in 2000,. However it down 20 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 9000 in 2001,  and  drop another 4 % in 2003 resulted additional loan default, simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

OSA/China Financial, Housiing  Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and Current Overheating in Housing, Stocks Price Bubbles Facing Bursts Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing  hundreds proactive structural dynamics simulators  tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and Stock, Housing markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial, housing  markets activities, how the former  Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of 3.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994’s peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
US recession in 2001 drag China stock for 40 % correction as predicted by Dr. Huang to China Peoples Bank staff in Beijin July 2001 ( Shanghai A plunged from 2200 to 1450 in late 2002 
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared from -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since in July 2001 and follow US Dow Jones, Nikkei, Henseng plunged below 9000, Shanghai index down 40 % to 1350 drag housing prices down 10- 20 % in Beijin and 5-10 % nationwide due to loss of trillion yuan wealth effect. However, the 30 % increase in export and  57 billion foreign capital inflow in 2003, lead to excessive monetary growth of 24 % and bank loan soared  33 % , despite 2007 China Peoples Bank raise rate 3 time, and bank deposit ratio 6 time  and raising capital gain tax and margin down payment, credit tightening, China A shares up 400 % since 2006  pushed Beijin  and coastal cities  Shanghai , Beijin, Nimbo, Guanzhou, Shenzhen prices almost triple, and  Shenzhen  housing price up 500 % close to that of Hong Kong price with first half 2007 price up almost 70 %  benefited by 500 % wealth  gain in Shenzhen stock index Shanghai up 20 %  

Hong Kong  Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Hong Kong housing prices  doubled in 1997  money supply growth soared form 8  % to  24 %, It plunged 50 % in 1998 Asian financial crisis, as interest rate soared from 5 to 19 %, Henseng index plunged 70 %, It recovered 20 % in 2000 boom, and plunged 25 % since 2001 recession,  It  tripled  from 7500 to 23500 due to US and China housing, stock market bubbles drive up housing prices over 1997 pre  crisis peak .

S. Korea Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted S  Korea housing prices  doubled in 1995- 1998  as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 18  %, Seoul index from 300 to 1400,, It plunged 50 % in 1998-99 Asian Financial crisis, as interest rate hike from 5 % to 15 %, Seoul index plunged to 200, and rebound  20 % since 2000  till now, housing loan more than doubled,  amount to100 % of GDP, overheated, lead to Bank of Korea raising interest twice. facing deflation and bubble burst risks . Housing prices lifted by China economic expansion, housing, stock prices bubbles and Korean stocks More than doubled from 900 to 1900, housing price gain wealth  up 50  % in since  2003
Korea economic contraction.. and stabilize at current level as interest rate  raised to 4.7 %

Australia Housing Bubble Burst Simulation :
Excessive money supply growth at 13 %, low interest rate  at 4.8 %pushed Australia housing prices up 19 % in 2002 and 18 % in 2003 among the top gainers, despite only 2 % GDP growth will facing bubble burst , plunge 30 % in future interest hike

European Housing Bubbles Burst
Most European countries following US rate cuts resulted uneven development in overheated housing market;  prices have risen by almost 60% in last  6 years in Europe, Spain houses prices  increased by 133%, 90% in Belgium and the Netherlands, 73% in France and 46% in Italy.  By while  21% decline in the last 10 years
EU housing markets facing increased default risks as housing prices peaking out due to series of  interest rate hikes ( fro 2 % to 4.75) in inflation control main parameters  .

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, daily commentary to TV, radio lectures for  30  million China, Taiwan, ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking, finance, property,  corporate CEO, CFO, senior executive, fund , real estate development, sales, managers, analysts, investors on GNP growth,  price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate reform, reengineering,  default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, daily global financial market  portfolio, housing real estate properties markets bubble risks management, construction industries supply chain cost reduction   on the job training , decision support for   e-commerce, e-business, e-finance, e-investment  applications   

Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:Monetary Policy, Oil Prices Impact on Global Financial, Energy Crisis, Recovery, Risk Control
The author has spend half of his time in Taiwan, ASEAN, Asia( 1980- 1996) and China, Hong Kong(1994-1998 with Ji in China), and US(1970-2002), in developing, implementing dynamics Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA) of global central banks monetary, economic policy, oil prices impact on daily EURO, Asian, US, global macro economy, daily financial markets normal, crisis , real estate, high-tech  bubble burst dynamics during 1980 and 2003.
A: Root Causes of EURO, Asian and Global Economic, stocks, real estate bubble  Boom and Bust, Financial Markets Crisis, Risks Simulation :
These real time simulation systems tracking successfully the root causes of all global economic bubble boom and bust, financial, banking ,energy crisis and associated risks came from excessive government fiscal, central banks monetary policy and global players hot money speculation resulted soaring properties, stocks prices, labor costs and associated asset bubble, wealth effect led to soaring consumer, business demand, rising oils and commodity prices, imports costs, declining export, shrinking trade surplus or expanding trade, current account deficit and overpriced currency and properties, equities prices. And eventual markets crash and crisis.
B. Simulation of the Onset of EURO, Asia, Global Currency Crisis:-Instantaneous releasing overpriced stress
These simulators tracking the real causes and the onset of the 1980, 1987, 1990 US recession, stock market crash,  1992 European, 1994, China, 1995, Mexico, 1997 Thailand, 1998 Korea and Indonesia , Russia, Brazil currency, financial crisis at moment widening trade deficit (approaching one billion monthly) and current account deficits lead to overpriced currency and the onset of crisis:- currencies plunge to release it's overvalued stress, returned to new rational equilibrium. UK and Sweden, Italy suffered currency plunge 1992, due to widening trade deficit . while Thailand, central bank float the Bhat (has been fixed at 25 for 4 years), in July 1997, it plunge to 50, S. Korea in Nov, Won plunge to 2100, and Sept, Russia float the ruble, and 1999 March, Brazil float it's Real all at the wrong time ( at one billion US dollar monthly trade deficit and current account deficit,) the currency take the plunge as shown in the simulation charts in the conference), and Singapore dollar, Taiwan NT dollar dropped 30 % reflecting shrinking trade surplus and turning into trade deficit. US dollar plunge to 102 Yen from 147 at the time Greenspan announce interest rate cuts in winter 1998, as it's trade deficit soared to 26 billion due to wealth effect resulted soaring stock prices, import demand and tripled oil prices.

C. Simulation of The Onset of Global Stock Markets Crash Crisis Dynamics:- releasing overpriced stress
These global stock markets dynamic simulators tracking instantaneous markets reacting to rising interests rates, credit tightening ( to fight inflation and stabilize the currency, created credit crunch. The currency and stock markets crashed to it's rational level, to release it's overpriced stress to new equilibrium resulted trillion dollars loses . Global financial market analysts have short memory on the interest rate hike impact on stock prices despite interest rate hikes lead to Asian crisis which Thailand raised interest rate to 25 % to stabilized Bhat at 50, took the Bangkok SET index plunge 70 % from 1000 to 250, Hong Kong raised it's short term interest rate to 19 % to defend it's HK dollars stock to US dollar, took the Henseng index plunge 60 %(from 12500 to 6200),Singapore raised interest rate to 12 % to stabilize the currency, Singapore Strait Times drop 60 %, Taiwan Index down 48 % . US Dow Plunged from 11300 to 9000 , Nasdaq from 5100 to 1800 this year and EURO stocks retreat 20 % reacting to US Fed and ECB interest rate hikes to cool-off the overheated US, EURO stocks bubble in internet and biotech and housing, labor markets due to wealth effect created excessive consumer, business demand. Similar crisis onset in 1987 US Dow Jones, 1990 Japan cut money supply from 13 % to 5 % to cooloff the bubble economy due to soaring stocks, housing markets, took Nikkei plunge 38000 to 20000, Taiwan raise interest from 6 % to 14 % took stock plunge form 12400 to 2400 and in 1992 European currency, crisis took stock plunge 40 %, 1994 China runaway inflation caused by 100 % currency depreciation, Shanghai A index plunged from 1500 to 333, reacting to doubled interest rates hike and Mexico crisis peso and stock market plunge 50 % Brazil index plunged from 8500 to 5400 reacting interest rate hike from 40 % to 70 %
D. Simulation of the Spread and capital out flow, banking default of EURO, Asian and Global Currency Crisis:
Thousands expert systems based simulators tracking, simulating the causes and spread of the past major global financial market currency crisis, FDI capital In/outflow, banking default and risks in the last 20 years are due to global central banks and financial markets decision makers. The spread of global financial crisis and default risks are caused through excessive central banks money supply followed by global players capital inflow speculating the overheated financial markets and outflow created market plunge resulted nonperformance loan and credit default(simulation results shown in the conference demonstrated the spread of UK, EURO currency crisis in 1992, Thailand currency plunge spread into ASEAN country, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S Korea, Russia default resulted LTCM into US and EURO , Brazil and Japan and this year s trillion dollars market loses in US, Taiwan, Korea are of poor investment strategy in US properties, stocks and Asian stocks and manufacturing industries caught in excessive money supply and global short term capital (hot money) inflow resulted overheated bubble economy (skyrocketing properties, stock prices and labor costs, declining export, widening trade, current deficit,(with one billion trade deficit) Indonesia, Russia were complicated by internal political turmoil, resulted global player pulling capital outflow resulted currency, stocks, properties prices plunge .

E. Simulation of Global Monetary, Economic Policy, oil prices Impact on Post Recovery of Asian and Global Financial Markets Crisis:
These systems tracking, simulate the IMF rescue plan progress results and the recovery of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, Brazil and LTCM betting on the wrong of interest rates(US T-Bond and Fed fund rates) and bond yield spreads. And predicted US Fed three interest rate cuts lead to fast US and Asian stock market rebound and economic recovery:, reduce the interest rate spread ,took the pressure off Asian currency , dollar tumbled from 147 to 111 While most ASEAN and Asian troubled country benefited by high interest rate, falling commodities prices, reduced domestic demand, imports, cheap currency lead to soaring export and trade surplus(S. Korea has 40 billion ) and soaring export growth, are able to cut interest rates to the pre crisis level., and maintain stable currency, lead to stock markets more than tripled S. Korea already lead the recovery enjoy 11 % GNP Japan has 9 % GNP growth, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore return to 10 % growth., China back to 8.1 % Taiwan back to 7 % growth getting out of recession and deflation ..
These systems predicted on May 1999 Macao's central banks policy conference the first US interest rate hike to fight domestic inflation due to soaring oils prices, and demand, 5 other interest rate hikes in the author's 16 int'l conferences later (ref. 1-18)
These systems accurately predicted US and EURO 1999 last quarter excessive money supply for Y2K resulted soaring global stocks and housing markets(asset bubble), resulted wealth effect led to runaway consumer, business spending debt resulted labor shortage forced Greenspan took series interest rate hikes in 2000 to cool-off the stocks, housing markets, reduce consumer, business demand. These simulators accurately predicted in early 1999 that global financial markets analysts overoptimistic over second half 2000 and 2001 earning outlook Dow 15 % plunge, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand follow Nasdaq plunge 60 %, Dow plunged into 9100 bear market and US NAPM index plunge to 41.7 recession low resulted Greenspan 0.5 % rate cut with global high fliers internet, biotech IPO stocks plunge 50 % to 95 % will drag Asian stocks into 50 %, EURO stocks into 20 % correction .
Goal Mission, Performance oriented multidisciplinary Risk Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA) strategic and execution teams for risk management and restructuring, reengineering
Hundreds risks OSA teams have been implemented in Taiwan, China, US: ASEAN by the author , Integrating daily central banks monetary operation into banking, financial markets debt restructuring, pre and post merger integration performance improvement, transparency, supervision, Basal, Prudential Regulations tracking and prevent various financial systemic risk related nonperformance loan and credit defaults and government, banking, financial markets, corporate reform, reengineering , management, technological innovation to improve global competitiveness
On the job training workshops and Academic University Teaching and Research: The author has offered these methodology and systematic analysis to thousands risk management workshops in China, and Taiwan 14 major cities nationwide TV, radio program lectures to 30 million government, banking, finance executives, managers, investors and trained over 1000 chemical engineering, economics, global strategic management operations research senior and graduates teaching and research program`.
Pre and post crisis recovery Simulation results of EURO, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan , US inflation, GNP, interest rates, FDI capital flow, bank defaults rate, properties prices, Currency, stock, bond index, profit margin and corporate stock prices simulation will be demonstrated in the conference
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Money, Currency, Stocks and Derivatives Markets Prices Risks simulation, control
Global central bankers have been facing daily challenges, risks from the macro economic growth ,financial market prices stability in the trillion dollar Asian, Russia, Brazil currency crisis and the mature financial markets turbulence like 1998 summer 4 billion dollar LTCM failure betting on the wrong side of interest rate, bond spread and global stock markets trillion dollars loses due to ignoring EURO, US interest hikes impact on global slowdown, corporate earning decline, stock prices plunge 50- 90 % and global credit crunch in 70 trillion dollar financial derivatives markets.
The global central bankers are playing dual role in provide prudent monetary policy to achieving nations price and growth stability and monitoring it’s impact on the economics and daily financial market dynamics ( normal and crisis discontinuous) responses and supervising the banking industry providing prudent credit decisions to support the economic growth and healthy financial markets trading process.
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economics ,Banking, Financial Crisis, Systems Risks Simulation:
OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis Root Causes Simulation:

These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit, led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997 , the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control without causing damage due to deflation and inflation

Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics under stress:

Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar exchange rate which influence the capital flow

.Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index, oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation rate)

These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately. It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and , commodities prices and inflation,

US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :

The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer 1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6 interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`

OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply, raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks, plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.
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Contact :    wh3928@yahoo.com      Whuang3928@aol.com     Fax : 1-510-524-4484(  San Francisco, USA)
                    Copyright 2002  www. osawh.com /   Dr. Warren Huang

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