osawh  Global  Commodities Futures, Derivatives Prices  OSA  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/index.html
Global Proactive Strategic Commodity Futures Research : Breakthrough Innovation:
Emerging Commodity Price Trend Forecasts:
Daily Global Crude Oils, Gas, Commodity , Metals  Futures, Derivatives
Markets Prices
OSA Structural
Dynamic simulation of  Markets Prices Market forces, price mechanism Modeling/Forecasts OSA

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang developed, implemented over thousands  of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations Analysis  experts system's      simulate, tracking last 25 years   daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver, feed-grains commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices , hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking, simulate daily  US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis  and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices  simulation, investment,  risk  management for helping  20 millions global  corporate CEO,  finance, import/ export,  currency  and equities and related mutual fund  trading, procurement, marketing  managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis  avoided trillions dollar market loss
Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that oil prices will soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006, soaring US, China  inflation  will forcel raise rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265,  metals , commodity continue making new high , drive  CPI to 4.3 % in March and  higher in the month ahead. US  Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing correction ahead. 
China Shanghai-Zhenzhou Futures markets daily futures prices
OSA

Fuel oil Shanghai follow crude oil rebound and falling  dollar  in winter 600- 5900
 Copper follow crude oil  , gold  falling  dollar rebound  in winter 65000-68600
Aluminum   follow crude oil  , gold  falling  dollar rebound  in winter   19000-21000
 cotton Zhenzhou follow crude oil  , gold  falling  dollar rebound  in winter 15000-17000
sugar follow crude oil  , gold  falling  dollar rebound  in winter  3750- 4100
yellow corn follow crude oil  , gold  falling  dollar rebound  in winter  2400-2650

Maximize Global Structural  Commodity Finance risks adjusted return workshops
presented to OPEC Petroleum ministers conference, Sept. 1989, Singapore
Oil/Gas/Chemical Supply Chain strategy workshop Apr. 26-27, 2001
China Oils, Upstream/Downstream conference, Recession  Post WTO Profit management workshop, Kerry Center Hotel, Beijin, Nov. 29-30, 2001
Oil/Gas/Chemical Supply Chain strategy workshop Apr. 26-27, 2001
China/Taiwan Oils, Upstream/Downstream conference, Recession  Post WTO Profit management workshop, for Chinese Petroleum, Howard  Plaza Hotel, Beijin, Jan 21-22, 2002

Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global
Economic Policy  Systems Simulation:
Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics
 
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,  speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998
.
5- day Global Oil, Gold, Currency Futures, Option Prices Simulation 2005 Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

Global Strategic Structural Commodities Finance Workshops: Thousands structural dynamic simulators Integrating economic market forces impact into  commodities investment, manufacturing, marketing, pricing business process.  Tracking, maximze risks adjusted return
Rate hikes Impact on Global 20 industrial sectors asset  prices, cash flow, peformance simulation/forecast, strategic investment, supply chain, default risks lectures/workshops tours
 

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, industrial sectors asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

Market Forces mechanism and Risks Hedging Simulations, Quantify the uncertainty futures
The risks in uncertainties in corporate profits due to global inflation/deflation, resulted product demand and prices slump in global commodities, industrial raw material and consumers products contract and spot and futures prices can be simulated to it's current and future raw material cost, monetary policy impact on products demand, inventory, (end stocks, supply (weather related crops) and the dollar exchange rates in the export countries
Asian currency crisis resulted plunge in demand and commodity prices more than 50 % resulted trillion dollar loses could have been avoided by thousands of such proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan on TV, radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper and computers companies daily global corporate procurement, marketing strategic decisions. He spend half time in China with Ji during 1994-98 to extend to training, lecturing 20 millions China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers, investors on TV radio programs. These relationships explain the gold and IC, oils, commodity prices soared  due to US rate tax cuts( money supply growth up  sharply) the plunging US dollar, higher China inflation and soaring oil prices (production  cost)

Market forces prices mechanism for commodity prices movement OSA and forecasts

commodity name market market forces outlook/ early warning near term trading range
CRB index NYFE soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive CRB 19 yr high 385- 495
10 yr T-bond yld CBOT soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher 3.7  4.5
10 interest swap CBOT soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher 1.50- 1.80
Energy/ oils futures prices
Nymex lt NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high  110- 145-
Brent oil LO soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high  110-145
Nat gas NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high 9.00 -14.5
Heating oil NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high 346-  395
R. gasoline NYMEX  consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gasoline price high 343-  376
Propane NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high 1.15- 1.35
gas oil NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high 985- 1290
Precious and Heavy  Metals Futures prices
Gold NYMEX consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price 850- 999
Silver Nymex consumer demand, plunging dollar soaring oil price 1500- 1750
Platinum NYMEX soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price 1400- 1550
copper NYMEX consumer demand, plunging dollar,  high oil price 400- 495
Aluminum NYMEX consumer demand, plunging dollar high  oil price 100- 135
     Fibers/ wood  
Cotton NCE consumer demand, plunging dollar drive , high oil price 66-  75
Lumber housing demand, plunging dollar , oil price high 230- 290
Feed Grain/ Food
wheat CBOT  consumer demand, plunging dollar 680- 840
corn CBOT consumer demand, plunging dollar 675 - 809
soybean CBOT consumer demand, plunging dollar 960- 1550
Sugar CBOT consumer demand, plunging dollar, oversupply 16- 19
rice CBOT consumer demand, plunging dollar 19.9- 22.5
       

 A. Commodity Research Board Index (CRB) Futures Simulation:
China has become playing more important role in commodity prices, as she become major consumer( importer) and producer(exporter) in feed grain, cotton metal, energy . CRB index has been related to US,China
's inflation,  consumer, business demand  and US dollar to Yen exchange rate.
This relation explain CRB soared to 286 recently as China, US and global economic recovery demand, US dollar depreciation against EURO 50 % 
China fixxed investment growth at 30 %, US business demand up 16 %, auto up 80 %, housing prices more than double  resulted record metal, oil prices and CRB index at 377 

B China, NYMEX and global Energy Futures Upstream/Downstream prices simulation
Energy (crude oils, gas oils, fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas, propane) future prices have been relation to their end use seasonal demand, inventory(which closely related to monetary policy), and production costs, OPEC supply and US dollar exchange rate
Again, Asian crisis resulted plunge in energy  price especially fuel oil, naphtha for industrial demand spread into China(demand) and major oil producer Indonesia Rupiah plunge from 1600 to 11000, further cut into crude oil prices to 10
However 1999 Asian recovery,  US summer gasoline demand playing key role in gasoline and crude oil prices rebound, OPEC took the right moment in April to announce 1.7 million barrels production cut pushed US gasoline prices from 33 bottom( predicted by Huang in US financial conference on Mar. 28 and on osawh.com) to 59 c/gal, pushed Nymex Tex sweet ligh crude oil  from 10 to 22 in June. As US soaring stock markets pushed consumer spending more on travel and gasoline),Asian recovery created demand,  excessive money supply  for Y2K in winter 1999, falling dollar, pushed  the fuel oil prices soared  from 30 to 101
excessive US summer demand for gasoline pushed gasoline price over 100, oil price to 37
entering winter season, early snow in US midwest driveup heating oil prices from 88 to 99,  
Dr Huang accurately predicted Crude oils will drop to 29 after US SPR rease 30 million barrel oil in. Nov. but will rebound to 35 before Nov. as  snow in US midwest.
Mideast tension, US navy destroyer hit  speculation of oil to 37, heating oil to all time high 115, gasoline to 99 will be shortlife corn, cotton, copper prices follow oil prices up 20 % ,  
US recession and 911 in 2001 drag demand and price for oil to 16.5 .and rebound to 29 in 2002 April due to strong US consumer demand for gasoline from 52 to 82
US  13 rate cuts to 1 % and 2003 and 2004 two tax cuts and dollar plunged to 103 YEN,  1.30 EURO resulted soaring US , China and global  consumer , business manufacturing demand, Iraq turbulence, Russia Yukos interruption pushed Wtex  Lit oil to 46, gasoline to 130, heating oil price to 120, Brent to 43, despite OPEC raised 2.3 million production in peak summer demand

Global Crude oil future prices = (US consumer demand, currency exchange rate, US gasoline price, US fuel price )

This relationship explain recent dollar weakness( Yen up to 11, Rupiah to 7000) and strong gasoline demand, and fuel inventory buildup pushed crude oil prices to 28 in summer 2002  and 38 in summer 2000
However, slowdown in US gasoline demand as winter approach,  will  drag crude oil down to 22-25 cold winter in Jan 2000, excessive  global monetary supply, soaring stock prices pushed fuel oil price to 105 and approaching  2000 summer gasoline peak demand, and low heating oil inventory  lead to oil prices soared to 37 , 2000 Nov   announcement by US DOE to release 30 million barrel oil in Nov will temporay cool the heating oil prices down to 100- 86,  and crude oil prices 29- 36  as predicted .
US recession in 2001 led to plunging consumer, business demand  and excessive inventory drag gasoline and heating oil prices to 50c/gal, WTex oil to 16 in July 2001.
Jan 2002 OPEC cut 1.5 million production pushed gasoline, heating oil to 60 and crude oil price to 22
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both will dip below  50 from 100 as oil price down to 17

China, CBOT Feed Grains , cotton, and food Futures prices simulation

China and CBOT Feed grains ( Corn, wheat, soybeans ) and Rice, food future prices have been relation to their end use seasonal demand( major consuming (importing )country money supply growth, inventory, and exporting productions (crops), currency exchange rate
These relationships tracking 1997 wheat, Soybean, Rice prices peaks and this year bottom, recent rebound of wheat prices with CRB, and Rice, Soybean weakness due to Thai Bhat , Brazil Real depreciation
Plunging US dollar ( 50 % vs. Euro, 20 % vs Yen) , low interest rate, excessive money supply, rate, tax cuts, pushed oil, feed grains Soy Beans, Wheat prices , CRB index 50- 100 %
Simulation charts will be demonstrated in the conference/workshops
Cotton Futures :
China is the major cotton consuming and export country, its deflation resulted oversupply in Polyester fibers (competing With cotton), cotton price at 35 are oversold when oil prices plunged to 16, it rebound to 79 as oil prices soared to  35 and US dollar plunge 50 %
Coffee
peaking out with CRB in 1997, plunged with CRB 2002 bottomed out at 0. 45,    as Real plunged to  3.5  , it soared 50 %as oil prices soared to  35 and US dollar plunge 50 %
China and   Metals future prices simulation

Metal future prices depend on it s production costs, and end uses demand ( consuming country money supply) and producing country dollar exchange rate

Precious Metal Future
Gold  futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA
Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold consuming country deflation at -3.6 % drag down gold price to 256, despite its rising oil cost (30 % production cost) was extremely oversold. Recent China economic recovery, inflation soared to 3.5 % and US dollar depreciation to 105 Yen, oil prices soared to 35  pushed gold to 426,  

Silver is used for decoration and mostly for photography, Major user US, soaring consumer spending, summer travel , high money supply supported silver prices above 650, it will dip below  600 on rising US interest rates, strong dollar

Platinum is used for decoration and mostly for automobile catalytic converter, benefited by US /China consumer auto demand, recent double to 850  as US dollar  plunged 50 % on Euro, oil prices soared to 35
Copper future prices simulation:

Copper bas been used mostly for electronic, IC, computers, appliances. It s future prices depend very on major downstream export demand, currency exchange rates)

This relation tracing accurately copper price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as result of Asian crisis late last year Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble, triggered currency depreciation
It rebound to  105 as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and   US dollar plunged 50 %.

The financial and commodity derivatives, options  prices, and Risk Hedging simulation
Daily Currency and Interest futures   simulation

The above commodities, interest rate, exchange rate and stock index simulations have been extended easily to the futures simulation and forecast by replacing the current independent variables value by the future value. While their call/put options have been used extensively by the banking, financial industry and multinationals corporate finance managers for hedging in risks, 70 trillion dollars has been exposed to leveraged hedging fund which using existing models requirement betting on probability and betting . While the following model( self learning Black-Schole formula) predicted the precise relationship eliminating dangerous betting
Call/Put options prices = F(striking price of the call/put, warrant ,Days to expiration, current and future commodities, interest rate, exchange rate and stock index, prices simulation )
This formula is simpler and more reliable than Black-Schole formula, it integrating future commodities interest rate, exchange rate and stock index simulations from above forecasts into the option prices calculation and does not require volatility data. Avoided betting on the wrong side of interest rate, currency, stock prices resulted LTCM  loses provided by Black and Schole formula. It has been developed, implemented successfully since 1987 stock market

Financial futures, Options Derivatives Markets Simulation OSA(980804) Click here to find out how to use this web IBM recommendation made 20 time profit on bought IBM 120 put on June 1 and made another 20 time profit on bought IBM 135 call on July 1,and made 50 % profit in short Dow, Taiwan stock index future on July  

Detailed analysis, simulation analysis of the above and other Asian and European countries commodity and financial futures, options  prices simulation results and chart are available by the order form below.   

Key Benefits:                           

  • Up to billions dollars profits cound be generated by these reliable commodity and financial futures, options  prices  simulation and  will  help the global or- porate CEO financial, procurement, marketing  decisions in global procure- ment, investment, market ing strategy, maximize   profit at minimum loss.
  • Also help investors timing in global investing.

Information Request Form

Select the country commodity and financial futures, options  names  items that apply, and then let us know how to contact you. Special introductory offer  only US 100 for each items of your choice, E- Mail order: whuang@osawh.com

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