osawh  Global stock indices OSA   www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/index.html
Proactive Structural, Dynamic Global Stock Indices futures markets and Stocks Price Bubbles Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis : Two master hands controlling global stock indices futures, derivatives prices boom and busts early warning  Chinese :
Breakthrough innovation in structural dynamic proactive Daily Global Stock Markets Indices Futures Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  forecasts, Boom/Bust, Crash Market Forces, Price Mechanism modeling, equities wealth effect bubbles Simulation/ Forecasts
 Global Strategic Management    OSA quantitative models tracking, forecast daily world stock indices ,help central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives stay ahead of fighting inflation, asset bubbles bull/bear, tracking  cause, onset of
 OSA currency, financial crisis, business cycle, bubble burst early warning,  supporting Base II market, credit, interest rate, liquidity,  operational risks tracking, simulation, control, maximizing  sustainable profit growth  in crisis 
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Dr. Huang predicted 2008 oil price soared to 106, Dow Jones plunged to11600 and global stocks went to bear market correction, drop 30-50 %  Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007  and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial engineering risk management conference  that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage and hedging fund  default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted  global stock indices are extremely overpriced, will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles  sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US  Fed  0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly inflationary and continue into second stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain) 
Special announcement: As of March 31,  2005, all  www.osawh.com    global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide by  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/globalfinance.html  

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friendly link to www.derivativesportal.org    of Eurex and IMC

5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
 5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop
 
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Economic Policy  Systems Simulation:
Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics 
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators  tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,  speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998.

Excessive China/US business and consumer housing, auto , IT demand pushed Asian and US   oil prices to break 70 and metals to new high  in summer 2006 and USrate hike continue into summer 2006 will drag US economy, stocks, bond prices and overheated Asian stocks making 20 % correction
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Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop

Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum www.abf.com.sg  China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  :
Financial  Crisis, Asset Bubble Burst Recovery, Risks, 3 month ahead Early Warning  Dr. Warren Huang pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, stocks market asset bubble, prices by  thousands  of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based daily global financial interest rate, currency exchange rates and it's impact on corporate performances and stock  markets  asset bubbles prices Operations Simulations Analysis  experts systems have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European and emerging financial markets,  tracking, simulate daily  US Fed and global central bankers monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO  impact on  US, S. America, Asian, Russia interest rates, currency, DFI, financial crisis  and it's impact on global industrial sectors demand, asset bubble, corporate earning, stock prices , wealth effect bubble simulation, investment, risk  management for helping  20 millions global  corporate CEO,  finance, import/ export, currency  and equities trading  managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis
Proactive structural  macro economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China contractionary/ expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation targeting, control tracking. predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag US dollar and stock market for correction,
Recent Dow Jones plunged 400 points as Yen plunged fro 123 to 118 and sub prime worry, oil price soared to 77
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,   integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency into capital market asset prices bubbles ( global stock indices) OSA simulation charts 
1.Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM) Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
 Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
 Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
 EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
 Hong Kong money supply growth,  inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on  Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops 
   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Dr. Huang two master hands accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual ( starting with 5 % band)  widening trading band without any schedule is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency.
Global stock indices are over heated will follow US 2000 bubble burst making 20 % correction in the month ahead                                                                             

US stock indices OSA forecasts                this month         2008
Dow Jones index                                11300- 13100    10000- 13140
Dow Jones Transportation                    3900- 4900        3900- 5200
Dow Jones Utility                                   390- 551           390- 551
Dow Jones Composite                           3900- 4100        3500- 3900
NY Composite                                        7000- 7500        7000- 7300
S&P 500                                                 1200- 1490       1100- 1490
SP midcap                                               650- 690         620- 650
SP small cap                                            320- 340        310- 320
SP super                                                   260- 275        250- 265 
Nasdaq   Composite                               2140- 2490      2050- 2490
                Banks                                     1200- 1500       1250-1600
                Financials                              3100-  3400        3100- 3750
                Industries                               3300-  3650         3200- 3600
                Computer                               900- 950             800-  900
                Transportation                       2100- 2300         2000- 2200
                Biotech                                  650- 750              690- 800
                Telecommunication              175- 190               170- 185

Global  Financial Markets :US, Asian, EURO  Money supply,  fund rate, Asian, Russia, South American Financial Crisis, Yen exchange rate impact on daily NY  Dow Jones, Nasdaq  and global stock indices   Simulation

 Exchange/index      Financial and industrial sector profitability outlook                   Index     forecast
                                                                                                                                 this mon       2008     
NY Dow Jones  more rate hikes, soaring oil costs, demand slowdown           11550 12990 -10050- 12900 
Nasdaq              soaring oil costs, demand slowdown, rate hike                       2190- 2280    2000-   2290
Tokyo Nikkei     economic recovery weak Yen,  soft  sales, prices, profit ,      12100-13480- 10500- 13700   
Canada Toronto  soaring oil costs, demand pickup,                                          11200- 12900  12000- 12250
China Shanghai A soaring oil prices, costs, overheating  credit tightening       2990- 3970    2900-   5100
China Shenzhen  A  WTO,  Declining sales, prices, credit tightening                 11000- 13550  11050- 14550
 HK Henseng    , soaring oil  price ,China tourist, demand pickup                    21000- 24900  18500- 26900 
Taiwan Index   export slowdown, soaring oil  price poor profit, demand pickup  7500- 9450-  6500- 9450
Taiwan OTC       High jobless,, soaring oil  price poor profit, demand pickup       135- 158-     151-  158
S Korea Seoul   soaring oil  price/costs demand pickup, overheating                 1350-  1490   1200-  1 450
Indian Stock Index soaring oil  price poor profit, global demand for outsourcing 12000- 12500  10000- 11400
Singapore Strait     , soaring oil  price poor profit, demand pickup                       2850- 3391      2330- 2950
Australia Sidney      soaring oil  price poor profit, demand pickup                        4300- 5250    3550-  5251
London Fin Times rate hike soaring oil  price poor profit                                      5600- 6300   5400-   6270
France Paris       High jobless, Strong Franc  poor profit, demand pickup             3760- 4800   3700-  4311
German DAX      High jobless,, Strong Mark poor profit, demand pickup               6300 -6640   5500- 6530
Swiss Zurich      High jobless,, Strong Franc poor profit, demand pickup             6000-7700   6000- 7100 
Russia Moscow  Soaring oil income and , and trade surplus, inflation                  9000- 10000   9000- 12500
 Mexico               High jobless, soaring oil  price poor profit, demand pickup      35200-  37900   26000- 36900
Brazil            High jobless,,soaring oil, commodity price profit, demand pickup   45000- 58000  38000- 59000

China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Sept.  retail sale up 13.2, China  third quarter GDP up 9.1 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 28.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak season .  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1300)) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Haung to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck and further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %.   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 46 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 51-  55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, Oct 337,000  stock prices peaking out in the Dec. 2003 and second quarter 2004 China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50 will cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55 gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in December  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in winter, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.8 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP  holiday  sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will plunge from 199 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  in post election bubble burst , repeating 2000. Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1000-1190,  Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1450, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.26- 1.30 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation 
Click for your in-house global stock indices, futures investment, risks hedging strategy on the job training workshops 

OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, financial crisis 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes... .
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994 will achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, Global bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.
 He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
and again  to Euro-events Singapore  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops warning  US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy. 
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain     

Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/supply chain, Basel II risk control  workshops

Dr. Warren Huang will be the guess speaker for Frontier in Knowledge's China WTO pricing strategy conference Aug. 19-20 in Pudong, Shanghai to speak on WTO, China, US credit tightening impact on China banking, finance, insurance, oil, gas, petrochemicals, housing, auto , high tech industries competitive pricing, profit squeeze, stock prices, investment strategy, Basel II risks management  he will offer post conference in-house workshops to banking, finance, fund managers, supply chain managers, risk managers  in Shanghai  Aug. 21-24,  Taipei  Sept 11- 15, Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22-23 , email   osawhh@citiz.net  for in-house workshops reservation
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for oil, petrochemicals and downstream end users 20 industrial sectors :housing, construction material, auto, appliances, IT, metals 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon Processing  and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html   circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese articles o daily newspapers, economic, finance, industrial economic  newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export pricing  in Taiwan, China. 
OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, soft landing and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks bull markets  rally  March 2003 Dow Jones  from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, India, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002
lectured to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1450- 1550, Shenzhen 3300- 3600, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 20  % profit .  

======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss ¡§Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US¡¨ and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net 
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 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  model simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented has been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:  ========================================================================================
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Million global central banks, government, banking, finance, corporate executives witnessed, visited our  accurate OSA forecast for global stock indices 2000-2003
OSA pioneer accurately predicted July 2001on the website and workshops for China Peoples Banks staff, Beijin, that US entering recession, Dow drag Nikkei, Henseng plunge below 9000. and warned Nov.2001, in Beijin, Jan  2002 in Taipei that US and Asian, European stocks and mutual fund over heated  for 30-50 % correction, oil prices soared to 28 from 16,  and  to 40 in March 2003, dropped to 24, rebound to 32 in July , 2003 and again on this website in July 2002 that US stocks will have mid summer rally after July earning report, dollar stabilize 115-123. and again to Wall Street Journal  Mid Aug 2002 that rally is over, old economy, chips, retails blue chips (MMM,PG, CSCO, TSM, NVR, Birkshire A)stock give up all their gain for 30 % ,European, Asian stock for 50 % correction till early 2003 .
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetray policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow JOnes impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, DOw Jones impact on Henseng index
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click www.bloomberg.com for real time quote of global stock index
Welcome   to  Global  Capital Markets, Asset Pricing Operations Simulations Analysis, Crisis, Risks Simulation, Prevention, Accounting Scandals  Pre-Warning
What is wrong with? Wall Street and global financial market?,
Why markets crash 30 %  Where is the bottom   What Wall Street need ?
How? to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts risks
You will find out all the answers in Dr. Warren Huang's speech prediction? on Global capital market asset prices, risk simulation in Beijin for Peking University's global finance confernce on corporate governance May 28-29,2002 that US, and Globa stock, mutual fund overheated for 30 % correctionand the following webpages   
¡@

lecture notes by Dr. Warren Huang email wh3928@yahoo.com/  osawhh@citiz.net
USA  Stock Markets                                                                                                           
1998 June-July  tracking results:
Our June forecasts and Dr. Huang's June 20 speech in SF Bay area accurately predicted: Yen traded between 136-145, Fed fund rate 5-5.6 %, money supply gr at 7- 7.3 % and Dow Jone between 8650 and 9350 and may challenge 9300 and 9400 area. Recomended IBM at 103, Intel at 65, Dell at 80, gained up to 40 %
Aug Tracking results :
Dr. Huang on Aug 10 web update again accurate predicted NY Dow Jones will retest it's  8300 support  and consolidate betweeen 8300 and 8550 due to higher interest rate and  weak Yen. The Dow Jone index plunged more than 200 points on the next day to 8350 He accurately predicted  US and global stocks are overheated, ready for 20 % correction on this website on July 20 that Yen givng up all it's gain to 146 and Dow European stocks will give up all it's gain to drop back from 9300 to  8000 Taiwan stock index will drop from 8120 to 7000, Henseng from 8800 to 7000. and short on these index futures, gained more than 50 % in one week. Greenspan's  next day warning on US economy overheating took the Dow and global stocks give all it's gains He  preidcted on Aug. 17 that Russia's Ruble  down 100 % and stock market slump spread  to European and South America, US second quarter GNP slowdown to 1.6 % already provide natural cooloff without raising interests for the markets, the Dow will test 7800 supports,  and recommended to avoid high priced stocks, replaced by low priced biotech stocks, It  did again on Aug. as Dow slump to 7500. recommended Biogen, Amgen(for member newsletter) went up over 50 % in one week
September 1998 Tracking result:
Dr. Huang Warned on Sept. 4 1998(comment on Greenspan speech) to  US bulls that Greenspan will not cut interest rate, The Dow will facing heaving pressure at 8000 and  retest 7500, high prices stocks will retest recent lows, recommend to buy low prices biotech stocks, Biogen. (it went up 60 % in one week), Dow did rebound to 8156,  retreat to 7500 twice. and accurately predicted IBM traded between 112 and 137Click here for Dr. Huang's latest tracking and forecasts
Oct. Dec  Tracking result:
Dr. Huang  Accurate predicted again on Nov 4. that Dow was overheated around 9330 and  will be retreated to 8650 as the bad earning data pouring in in late Dec.  recommended Biogen in Sept   doubled from 42 to 85 accurately predicted IBM will go to 165
1999 Jan-Feb tracking results:
Accurately predicted Dow was overheated at 9650 and starting correction to 9000
1999  May-Sept. tracking results:
Accurately predicted at May 15 central banks conference in Macau, Pacific Confernce in Taipei, on May 29, European Finance Management conference in Barcelona, that US Fed will raise interest rate, Dow will retreat from 112 to 10200, HK Henseng index retreat from 14000 to 12000, Taiwan index  will drop from 8800 to 7000,  S. Korea Seoul index will challenge 1000, Nikkei will be traded between 17000 to 19000, EURO will rebound, took Frnace, London stocks to new high

US Fed policy impact on US stocks markets:

Financial  market analyst speculata optimistic mood on 4t h quarter and next year earning and Greenspan speech on  possible rate cut , DOW, Nasdaq rally,
After 6 rate hikes, US economy just entering initial economic cooloff, :  retail sales, durable goods orders decline, lower CPI data, However, still facing tight labor and housing, markets,  soaring oils, gas prices. (click for our  and second half  Interest rate, Monetary policy impact on Industrial sectors and corporate earning  outlook simulation forecasts :  IT, high tech   stocks  above 100 are near term overheated ,   will test 100 as Nasdaq plunge to 1500 and DOw to test 9000 again click for Special Report: OSA for  top 100 inf-tech world's best performer on Jun 19, 2002 issue.  Financial markets` analyst are over optimistic about the earning outlook in the second  half, , ignoring negative impact on auto, finance, computer , semiconductors  )and retail sales, earning, using  economic slowdown to speculate on  Blue chips Dow  Industrial technical rebound to 10900 are overpriced, will correction to 9600-10000 continue.  Nasdaq technical rebound to   2920 facing selling pressure, entering final stage of phase I corrections and consolidation    to  2200--2500 area: Buying opportunities in information technology, biotech stocks in the weeks ahead at Nasdaq around  2500   We are approaching  phase I of economic slowdown will be marked by meeting inflation down to 2.5-3 %, GNP below 3 % for two quarters, with supply demand balance NAPM index belwo 47 (currently  47.7 semicoondiuctors B/B ratio below 1.1 around October. Phase II will start 3 months after initial slowdown (  Nov., we will see the inventory builtup,falling pricess and  falling durables (auto, appliance, computers) comsumer goods(gasoline) and delcing old economy and new economy corporate earning.  That 's the real bottom for Dow Jones, and Nasdaq
Dr. Huang accurately predicted 1999 Dec. and Jan 28 2000 on Sina.com (investment forum Q&A) and spoke to
numerous global central banks conference on simulation of Greenspan's Speech OSA Aug 27 on Asset
bubble burst , Oct. 14 on Financial Risk Management, Nov.3 , 99and Feb 15 , 2000 on US soaring Stocks,Housing prices, low unemployment, fueling consumer and business   demand, and this website warning that early this year, US Dow Jones index will test 9600, Nasdaq will test  2500 support, with high flier IPO, internet, IC, Biotech stocks crash plunge more than 50-75 %, US economic growth will be slowdown to 3 % in the second quarter  
US Stock Prices Compression Inflation/Deflation Bubble Burst Process simulation
in order to cooloff wealth effect in overheated stocks, housing markets to cut consumer, business demand.
.Stocks are in a deflationary, prices compression to it's own valuation reflecting future earning slowdown, All stocks inflated again in recent rebound  Dr. Huang predicted onJune 22 that CRA will be down to belwo 100, It did, on June 27, from  135 to 99 He also predicted blue chip quality stocks like IBM, HP, Yahoo)prices will be  down  to below 100( These stocks plunge as Dr. Huang forecasted), most quality stocks (old  and new economy) will be compmressed to 40 to 60 (CSCO, ORCL, MSFT, AOL, AMGN, BGEN , QCOM, NOK, CRA, HGSI) hitech and   blue chip stocks bubble burst continue with top earning stocks correction 30 %, medium one down 50 %, poor earning or widening loses will be down above 90 %, Buying opportunities in quality stocks with solid earning in the 30-50 price range As quality internet stock down 50- 80% Biotech shares  down 30-50 % as predicted by Dr. Warren Huang last Dec. , 30 Yr bond yield will break be traded between 5. 2and 5.3 %Bubble appear again as  . Bubble will burst, stock prices compression again as more earning decline warning lead to markets   plunge to new low before Aug: 
Click for US Fed Monetary Policy and stocks, asset prices impact on Economic Indicators

Asian  Business, Economics, Stocks Prices

China  No. 2 : China Unicom(CHU) IPO in Hong Kong, NY,  facing domestic and global competition, stock prices compression No.1China telecom stock prices facing pressure will retreat 20 % to below as Nasdaq pull back. US ATT, WCOM down to 24CHU look attractive as it dip belwo  12.
.China A shares are under price compression with the top high tech Tsinghwa prices at 55, quality high tech in 20-45, while old economic finance, properties share in 10-25 However low preiced quality A share in the 5- 10 range still have room for growth, while speculateive with operating loss prices above 12 should down belwo 8
China ADR shares are under price compression by CHU, it puul down China telecom and Sina, compressed XING and other China shares blwo 20.CHU are ver profitable, expanding market shares, As it's rally to the 30 's later, Chiaa shares will be inflated again on WTO news
Taiwan's electronic stocks follow US. Nasdaq retreat, break 5600will test 4500-5300  
Hong Kong stocks followed US Nasdaq plunge technical rebound, high tech bubble burst, stock prices compressio As Accurately predicted by Dr. Huang , Henseng Seng indexplunged from 18600 to 13200 s high tech, internet bubble bursts, dispite Hong Kong first quarter record GNP growth (aided by soaring stocks in wealth effect and record export growth) As Hong Kong  hitech bubble burst with quality stocks down 50 %   High  quality internet , finance, properties  stocks  plunged   below 100 , and compressed to between 40 and 65, finance banking stocks are hurt by  nonperformance loan due to plunge stocks, rising interest rates   Henseng Seng Stock index will be traded between 12500-13100 
Japan . strong Yen hurt Japan export , high tech bubble burst, stock prices compression
Rising US interest rates will lead to US economic slowdon, decline in high tech and old ecohomy demand for US and Japan export. Yen is drag by strong Japan trade deficit and widening US trade
deficit at 34.5 billion any intervention will fail. However, US dollar will have support arouund  118-124   However economy will face contraction again without stimulus, As Japan  hitech bubble burst with quality stocks down 50 %  High  quality internet SOftbank dwon 80 %, Hikari down 95 %, finance, properties , Appliance, auto stock will be down 30 % are hurt by  nonper formance loan due to plunge stocks, rising US  interest rates reflected US slowdown     Nikkei will be traded between 11000- 12500
EURO economy, financial markets, stock prices:
: European Central Bank kept  rate  at 4.75 % again to keep inflation below 2 %, money supply growth
around 4.5 % and GDP around 3 %  to slow down in demand, import from US and Asian, recent US rate
hike put pressure on EURO, it will have support around 0. 83-0.88 . However weaker EURO will boost EMU export offset some ,negative impact on corporate earning and stock prices   due to US, EURO slowdown (15 % correction)
Global stocks  follow US stock into technical rebound and 20 % correction (expecially Euro,   Asian , South American stocks) in the weeks ahead

Corporate pre/post Merger performance
Global TELECOM  mergers analysis, investment strategy:
China Telecom merge more Chinese cites wireless market, to bring to 20 million customer by year end will help maintain it's market share against China unicom and stock prices

Financial market speculation on WCOM Sprint merger derail, stock prices jume 5 to 45 are overpriced while T (ATT down to 32 are oversold, both stock prices should be between 30-40
US Internet  mergers analysis, investment strategy:
B2C companies Webvan mergers Homegrocer, bothe sufferd sharp competition, widening loses, stocks down 90 % to 6, The merger  increase some marketshares, help little on profit, stock price still say around 6
US Food co mergers analysis, investment strategy
Philips Morris(MO) merger NA as excuse MO up 3 to 27, pushed Dow 138 , Nasdaq fol.loww, up 61, > Fundamentaly , there is no reason for the technical rebound, The merger is good for MO to diversify to food,but profit margin will be drag by the merger, MO with 12 % profit margin, stock at 25 are oversold, should be trade   23-30. while NA with margin on 3 %, stock priced at 52 are overbought, should be down to 40
Global airline stocks merger investment strategy+
Global airlines are facing soaring fuel, labor costs, mergers can not chabge near term performane, while only increases more competition inUS and European flights: US merger US airways abd proposed AMR, Delta, NWA, EURO mergers.All these airline are facing operating loses. only UAL, Delta  survive, All their stock prices are testing their year lows between 25- 55. not recommend for near term investments
IT/internet merger--- VODafone,   AOL, Webvan-Homegrocer
AOL and Times Warner(TWX) and recent EMI cross culture cross continent merger, will broaden markets share, but it will take time and efforts in post merger integration, before any significant improvement. TWX share are overpriced above 90, as it already dip below 80, it will converge to AOL price around 47  and then rebound to 75
Exxon-Mobil merger moves ahead: based on Dr Huang's associated with both Mobil and AMOCO headquarter,both company although enjoyed over 65 % gain in profits but are hurt by soaring crude oil prices, cut into profit margin to only 8 % , 15,000 staff cut to save 3.5 billion payrol cost may not improve it's  post merger integration performance as it happen in Compaq, Boeing and others.
US Biotech pre and post mergers profit margin and stock prices performance OSA and upgrade on Monsanto and Upjohn merger will provide prices support to both, stocks rebound to above 50
Pfizer merge  Warner Lamber(WLM) pushed share up:, PFE at 31 very attractive for accumulation to 50
Global Commodities Prices OSA/ Procurement, investment strategy
Buy and investment opportunites in Aug:- Nov.
Crude oil prices will peaking out around 35, in July  falling to 25 in late Aug.  while US  reg. gasoline prices peaking around 100 in July, and down to 70 in  Nov.. fuel oil down to 65, Corn, wheat, soybean, Ccffe,copper, cotton steel prices will be down 10 % in Aug. 
Click for Daily Global Interest rate, Bond Yield, Currency Exchange rates ?Simulation/Forecasts
Click for Daily Global Stock markets Prices? Simulation/Forecasts
Click for? Financial Markets Prices simulation, Banking Crisis, Risks Control
Join osawh.com-sina.com Daily US, China, Taiwan, HK macroeconomic, investment strategy forum Q & A??
Dr. Huang ?hosting?Chinese Edition? investment Forum? Q & A program for osaw
Excessive   year end money supply lead to strong US, EURO demand(wealth effect), recent Asia recovery pushed oil price to 35, and Greenspan concern and focus on equity prices fueled business, consumer spending, asset bubble burst resulted abrupt change of confidence may lead to stock price plunge. lead to Nov. 16, Feb   interest rate hikes and more to come as predicted accurately by the website,  money supply growth will be reduced  7.5-8.5 %)  30 yr. bond yield 6.1 %-6.6  %,the widening US trade deficit will cutting into the strength of the dollar(supported by US rate hike). Yen will be traded between 101 and 108 . Although Dow was pushed to 11750, retreated to 9800, Nasdaq to 4950  with the help of high tech, biotech,  internet  markets bulls speculating new technology and productivity,  but the corporate earning will deteriorate due to US and EURO interest rate , dispite Asian recovery.  US  stocks are overpriced, Dow will be traded between 10700 and 95 00 Nasdaq will be traded between 4350 and 5000  in order to cool off the consumer and business spending and inflation  Click here for daily Dow Jones Stock Index Simulation                                                                       
US money supply,  fund rate, Asian, Russia, South American  Recovery, Yen exchange rate impact on daily IBM earning and stock  Simulation 5/17/2000: Recovery  in Asian demand (Japan, Korea), improve IBM earn ing,  However it's main frame sales slowdown down due to Y2K and disappointing server PC sales caused earning decline , the stock price will be traded between 90 and 113 
The Canadian   Toronto Stock Market  
Canadian  money supply,  interest rate, Asian  Russia, South American Financial Crisis, Yen exchange   rate impact on daily Toronto Index Simulation : Yen traded between 103 and 109, Canadian interest  rate 5.6-6.0 %, money supply gr between 5.5 and 6.5 %   between 1.45 and 1.51 due to improved trade surplus   US rising interest rate will pull the Toronto index to 8500   to 9900                                                                                                                                                                                           
Real Time Emerging Markets Simulation : Asian Financial Crisis Recovery Simulation  Apr 15 2000
June-July Tracking results: our June-July   forecast accurately predicted   Shanghai A. traded bwtween 1250 and 1400, Henseng 7100 and 8500, while the China red chips between 600 and 800, Taiwan's NT dollar (will be traded  between 34 and 35.5)and interest rate(short term ( 6 to 9%)   Taiwan stock index traded between 7000 and 8000,  Acer stock traded bet ween 35 and 44. Japan Yen traded between135 and 146, The Nikkei index has support at 1 2500, will be traded between 14000 and 15600, Korean Seoul index will stay above 280, and return to 360 level. The US ADR share Korean Fund worth accumulate  around   5.5- 6.00, it will   have the potential of stay above 9, this fund gained 50 % after our recomendation
Sept Tracking: Dr. Huang accurately predicted on  Aug17 that Taiwan Index will be traded between 6000 and 7000, Henseng Index will be traded between  7000 and 8000, Nikkei  Index  traded between 14500 and 16500, China Shanghai A composite Index traded between 1050  and  1300
1998 Oct. Dec- 1999 Jan-Feb  Tracking result:
Dr. Huang  Accurate predicted again on Nov 4. that Dow and Asian stock was overheated around 9330 and  will be retreated to 8650 as the bad earning data pouring in in late Dec.  Henseng will bw traded 9000 and 10800, Taiwan index will be traded between 5300 and 6500, China Shanghai A between 1060 and 1200, B between 25 and 35, SHenzhen A between 2700 and 3000, while ASEAN and Korean stock rebounded 80 % overheated  and pull back in Feb, due to interest rate cuts
China : Asian turmoil resulted  falling export and domestic consumer prices,  it will take few more months to see the result of two  prime rate cut  1 % and housing market stimulation package to raise the money supply growth rate to the 14- 18 %(currently below 18%) and the GNP above 7.8, The soaring trade and current account surplus and foreign reserve (144 Billion) will support strong RMB at current level of 8.3- 8.5, dispite of Asian turmoil caused slowdown .  Hong Kong ranked no 1. in China's properties and stock markets investment, it' slump in stock and properties and China's  falling export and poor corporate earning and unployment due to state enterprises reform  will drag down China's financial and housing markets and manufacturing industries.  Recent raising tax on saving may have near term set back in stock market , until income redistribution to sovlev unemployment and low income workers Shanghai A, B shares strong rebound  index benefited by  rate cut  and improved Asian economy , capital inflow from HK  ,China stocks making new high this year, following 50  % growth in export and government 150 billion stimulus package to stimulate domestic demand, increased personal income, spending lead the country out of deflation, with prices index up 0.8 %, money supply gorwth above 15 %,  Dr. Huang accurately predicted in January that Shanghai index will break 1700,  will face heavy resistance above  1860 due to poor finance and properties earning, Shenzhen index will face heavy resistance above 4600.   , Shanghai B in 38 and 45,  , B, in 65 and 80, Recent US-China trade agreement will lead to sharp competition in CHina domestic markets and falling corporate profits, in addition US and EURO slowdown due to recent initerest rate hike
Hong Kong: Asian turmoil resulted rising short term and long term interest rates to defend the HK dollar to stick to US Dollar. The 70 % slump in properties and 60 % stock prices and  falling export and domestic prices,  resulted widening trade,  current account deficit, which put further pressure on the HK$ dollar and interest rate. Recent US interest rate cut and strong Yen has put some pressure of HK  interest and exchange rate, short term ( 6 to 7%)long term (9 to 11 %)The falling money supply growth(from 18 % to 3 %) resulted negative GNP pulling the Heng seng index down,  which will be less depended on the US or other Asian market, The  strong Yen help ease Asian currency pressure, but will hurt Japan export and  delay the Asian recovery.  recent Yen rebound and HK government 5 billion stock buy back intervention try to stick   Henseng to Dow Jones.  The Henseng Index is over optimizaistic about the Asian recovery and Recent US-China trade agreement will lead to sharp competition in CHina domestic markets and falling corporate profits, in addition US and EURO slowdown due to recent interest rate hike is overpriced at 16500, It   will be traded between  13500 and 15500, while the China red chips between 1000 and 1400, Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank stock between 85 and 110 Click here for daily Henseng Index Simulations                     
Taiwan: Asian turmoil resulted falling export and domestic prices, trade and current account  surplus which put further pressure on the NT dollar, recent US rate cut took some pressure off (will be traded  between 32. and 33.0)and interest rate(short term (4. 5 to 5%) ,  The Asian deflation drag money supply growth down from 10 % to 7.5% and   GNP bel ow 5.5 %,led Recent government 280 Billion NT  intervention in  Taiwan stock and 150 billion NT in low interest houseing loan(follow HK and China)the nonperformance loan( even recent measure to solve bad loan problem, investor confidence in the construction and finance sector, ELectronic stock are overpriced,  Taiwan DPP party to replace KMT in 55 year ruling in recent presidential election, the minority status and political? friaction with China will lead to near term poliical and stock markets uncertainity, stock index will follow US in 20 % correction, will be traded? between 8300 and  10200
semiconductor, PC , internet stock are overprices still have downside risk and facing consolidation ,  Acer stock traded between  70 and 96 . Financial, banking , construction materials stocks are benefited by tax rate cut, earth quake reconstruction , petrochemical stocks profit are huting by soaring oil prices costs
Japan:  badly hurt by Asian turmoil.  The properties and financial sectors are hurt by trillion dollar bad loan and domestic slump in stock and properties prices. The money supply already dip to 3 % from the peak of 13 % in 1990, The benefit of  230 billion tax cut   and low interest rate is already down to 0.15 %, lead to first quarter GNP 2.1 %However, due to slowdown in domestic demand, the soaring trade & current account surplus will provide  support to the  Yen, However stronger Yen will hurt Japan export and corporate profit,  Yen  will be traded between 1 02 and 111 , The Nikkei index  has support at 18000 by internet stocks, will be traded between 18500 and 22000. However, (This report accurately predicted Japanese  economy will shown sign of recovery,by the  second quarter of this   year  with improved domestic demand   in electronics, computers, appliances and auto and money supply, leading by the electronics), computers, appliances, auto(US counter parts) rebound, which will took Nikkei go to 17700 to 22000 level )
South Korea :  Badly hurt by Asian turmoil. Won's depreciation from 800 to 2100, due to 200 billion bad corporatea loan and trade and current account deficit,Fortunately, the soaring export resulted trade and current account surplus during the last   years lead to 60 billion foreign reserve  Won's appreciation 40 % to 1200. and GNP of 9.8 %the Seoul stock index soared  250  % from 300 to 1050. How ever, the high nonperformance loan   ( economy is already overheated )and expansionary money supply and corporate reform to improve it's global competitiveness. lead to recent trade deficit,,Seoul index will be troubled by the nonperformance loan to cool off the overprices stay above 850, and return to 1000 level. The US ADR share Korean Fund recommended in  1998 July - 5.5-5.9,   doubled to 13.9
India: Asian turmoil resulted falling export and domestic prices,   widening trade and current account  deficit which put further pressure on Indian currencyl be traded  between 42.6 and 45.5)and interest rate(short term (  6 to 7%) ,  The Asian recovery and US, EURO expansion, weak Rupee, boosted Indian export, However, is hurting by Soaring oil prices and costs,   Indian stock index benefited by expanding export, it will be traded between  4250  and   5950
ASEAN  Financial Crisis  Deflation Simulation Mar 2000 
Singapore : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. resulted properties and stock prices slump.  Singapore dollars depreciation from 1.35 to 1.67, due to export slowdown and increasing trade deficit.      the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. trade deficit turning into surplus.   . However, it is oveheated above 2000,(especially the finance and properties shares)  .  The index will be traded between 1900 and 2250
Malaysia : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. The Malaysian dollars depreciation from 2.35 to 4.67, due to export slowdown and increasing trade   and current account deficit.   The Malaysian dollar is  continue under pressure, between 3.6  due to  sinificant improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,  due to ASEAN, Asain slowdown.,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Kuala Lumpur  stock index   500 -- 600 area.
Thailand : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. The Thailand   Baht   depreciation from 25 to 49, due to export slowdown and increasing trade  and current account deficit.   However, The improved trade surplus starting April already took Baht rebound 20 % to 36.,  due to Thailand's high interest rate to slowdown import. The Baht will be trade in 35 - 38 Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Bangkok  stock index is   benefited  by the ample  money supply, as interest rate start to fall to 4 %, it already built  strong base support around 350 and 399. then rebound to 399-550 area, currently hurt by strong currency resulted soaring import shrinking  trade surplus, and US slowdown, Set index retreated from 550 to 430, How ever it will be treated between 370 and 500 
Indonesia : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. The political situation further complicates the Indonesian Rupia  depreciation from  1325 to 17000, due to export slowdown and increasing trade  and current account deficit, domestic policatical unrest.   However, The slow but steady improvement of  trade surplus and shrinkging current account deficit starting April already took Rupiah rebound 50 % to 8000., due to Indonesia high interest rate(50%) to slowdown import, boost export and trade surplus.   The Rupiah  will be trade in 8000 -9000 . Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Jarkata  stock index is hurt by the tight money supply, trying to built  strong base support around 300 and 355. then rebound to 400 -600  as  interest rate continue  falling .
Phillipines : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. The Phillipines peso  depreciation from 25 to 45, due to export slowdown and increasing trade  and current account deficit.   However, The slow improved trade and current deficit has kept pseo stay around 40.,  due to Phillipiness high interest rate( 12 % - 16 %) to slowdown import. The  peso will be trade in 38 - 43 . Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Manila  stock index is hurt by the tight money supply(although the interest rate start falling, trying to built  strong base support around 1500 and 1700. then rebound to 1700- 2250 area as the interest rate starts to fall again.
Pacific Basin: Financial Crisis   Deflation Simulation 9900904:
Australia: Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. Australia's widening trade deficit and current account has forced the Australian dollar depreciation from 1.35 to 1.67,  The Austrealian  dollar is  continue under pressure due to lower interest rate (only at 4.6-5. %) WILL BE IN THE RANGE 1.65 and 1.77  due to ASEAN, Asain slowdown AND FALLING WHEAT AND WOOL PRICES until  year end when the seasonal prices pickup.. Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown.  Ausatalian all ordinaries   stock index will be traded betrween 2800 and 3180.
New Zealand: Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian turmoil. Australia's widening trade deficit and current account has forced the New Zealian dollar depreciation from 1.60 to 1.95 it will be   supported by the higher interest rate ( at 8.6 %) WILL BE  treaded IN THE RANGE 1.90 and 2.08  due to ASEAN, Asain slowdown AND FALLING WHEATR AND WOOL PRICES until October  when the seasonal prices pickup.. Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown.  The New Zealand Wellington stock index is hurted by the high interest rate,  will be traded betrween 1 900 and 2350.
Russia Financial Crisis Simulation:
Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with 8 % inflation, Tighte money supply to support the Rupe due to Asian Turmoil resulted? declining trade and current account surplus  forced the interest rate tripled to 150 % .Last Sept. annouce ment to float the Ruble to 9.5  to ease short term debt, and Yeltsin fired prime minister caused credit default, Ruble broke 9.5 to 20 . The Russia Mosco stock index  was rebounded from 160 to 403 benefited by falling  interest rates from 150 peak to 80, However after the interest rate raised to 200 % to stabilize the ruble ( soared from 20 to 8.5) took the stock inidex down to 170 again.  The market already rebound to 255 after the government announced increase money supply, cut interest rate to 100 %,  Russia stock market was badly hurt by the falling ruble, rising interest rate and recent LTC failure resulted credit squez. Ruble has support at 20-25 due to soaring trade surplus lead to  recent interest rate cut to 25 % boost the index to  .It will be traded between 660 and 960
South American  Financial Crisis   Interest rate, currency, stock markets Simulation990904: 
Mexico : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian , Russia and Brazil turmoil   resulted properties and stock prices and export slump. the widening trade and current account deficit took peso depreciation from  7.5  to  10.6 . It will be under pressure, rasing interest rate from 15 % to 36 % may stablize the peso   around 11 Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown.  US interest rate hike resulted slowdown will depress the MExico stock, Mexico stock index   will be traded between 4900 and 5400
Brazil : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian, Russia  turmoil, resulted export declined and excessive  government spendinig resulted trade and current account deficit (43 billion dollars), last year 41 billion IMF rescue can not improve it's global competitiveness and cut deficit, resulted risks in  failing to fulfill IMF commitment  lead to recent float real to 1.32 and plunge to 2.2   brief recession is inevetable, which will  lead to stock market plunge from 8300 to 5000, Recent resign of central bank governor,  The Brazil dollars depreciation from 1.20  to 2.52  due to export slowdown and soaring  trade and current account deficit.  will be traded between 2.3 and 2.8.  The interest rate has raised from 40 % to 74 % to support the currecy around 1.32. Real  it  is  continue under pressure,  until significant improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,  due to ASEAN, Asain slowdown. Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Barzil stock slump due to rising interest rate, recent interest rate cuts to 35 % boost the stock index to 12500 is overpriced, failed to reflect poor corporate earning due to slowdown, US slowdown will further depress the stocks It   will be trade between 9500 and12000
Argintina :Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian, Russia  turmoil. The Argintinal currency although stabled at 1.00 by raising the interest rate from 12 to 24 %  Recent US rate cut has took some pressure,  will be traded between  1.0 and 1.10  until sinificant improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,  due to ASEAN, Asain down. Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Argintine stock slump due to rising interest rate, it may test new lows at 350.  will be trade between 350 and 460.
Asian, Russia, Brazil  Financial Crisis Impact on EUROS, European currencies and Stock Markets OSA:(990904)
June- July: tracking result: Our June forecasts accurately predicted The Euros stock markets are benefited by lower interest rates, will continue making new highs after ECU Union central banker announcement interest rate converge to 4 %   Accurately predicted on July 20 that ECU stock markets are overheated ,  it will follow Dow Jones for 20 %  correction and rebound in 10 % range.Dollar is overpriced against ECU currency , ready for 15 % correction. It is worthwhile to accumulate at current setback for future appreciations
11 European  joined the unified currency and single central bank, interest rate  January. These 11 countries will have 6.4 trillion GNP, next only to US. with   huge trade surplus and current account balance, They are supported by the big high talent ed low cost Eastern European manpower pools. and also benefited by the US econo mic expansion, recent restruc turing and merger with US competitors, with be replac ing Asian as the super economic power in the near future. These European stock markets already attracted many global investors, and after recent setback,  will continue to make new highs this  year.
Euros  money supply, interest   rate,  Asian Financial Crisis, currency  exchange   rate impact on daily European stock  index Simulation 990 904
UK London Financial Times : Asian recovery and strong US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices  pushed  UK  inflation is already  at 4  % due to the expansionary money supply growth at 7.8 %, and low interest rate at   5.8 %, resulted labor shortage and soaring properties, stock prices. The UK interest rate is uder pressure , to fight inflation,   while US Fed fund rate jumped to  6.5 %, money supply growth  6- 7 %)  , the widening UK trade deficit  recent overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike,  . will cutting into the strength of the pound , and   will follow Dow Jones and Dax ,  LFT  will be in the range 5750-6 700
BP   stock  price will settled to 55-70   , benefited by recent merger with  AMOCO.
German Dax Stock Index : Asian recovery and strong US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices  pushed     inflation is already  at 2.2  % due to the expansionary money supply growth at 5.8 %, and low interest rate at