osawh
Global Interest rates, Bond Price Simulation by: Innovative Proactive
Structural Dynamic Interest rate and Bond yield, CDS spreads OSA
Proactive Structural Global
Inflation, Interest Rates, Strategic Fixed Income / Bond Market Futures, Derivatives
Prices Operations Simulation Analysis/ Forecasts
Master hands controlling global macro, financial economics and daily interest
rate, bond market
price mechanism: Tracking real time monetary, economic, fiscal and QE 2 policy
impact on bond yield, interest rates
OSA pioneer, Dr. Warren Huang innovation in Two master hands
integrating , tracking, controlling global macro, monetary-economy and
industrial sectors demand impact on interest rate, bond yield, prices mechanism through Proactive
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Global Macroeconomic Growth, Inflation,
Interests rate Government, Corporate Bond yield, Futures, commodities, oil,
derivatives prices modeling forecasts, Inflation-linked bond yield,
prices swap, spread prices mechanism, market forces modeling
Operations Simulation Analysis, Forecasts:
Mortgage
Bond Crisis/Risks Early Warning
Global Exit strategy and Housing debt bubble burst crisis lead US economy to slow
in the second half 2010, to 2 %, follow Euro debt crisis, and China, US, China,
Asian slowdown, despite Fed QE2 to inject 600 billion into treasure,
securities bond to effectively cut rate 0.25- 0.50 % or 10 year bond yield
will bottoming out at 2.4 % and stabilize around 2.40 - 3.00 %
Global stocks , commodities,
metals rally over 15- 20 % over expectation due to rate cuts resulted
dollar weakness to push export lead to consumer, business rebound ,
all the market are fully priced in , over prices, will give up most of its gain
as sluggish demand in housing and spending due to record unemployment , and
housing market slump will drag Dow Jones to test 9000- 9900 S&P to 1100,
global stocks make 15 % correction
Dr. Warren Huang (¶ÀµØ«n³Õ¤h) Pioneer, proactive,
structural equities, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks
valuation markets fundamentals mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street
Journal Real Time Economic , Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US
housing price slump, credit crisis continue into summer 2009 drag US dollar to 1.45
EURO, 85-90- Yen , economy into 1980 double dip inflationary recession and US, global
stock indices bear market correction, oil , commodities bubble burst from
147 to 40, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
failure. despite Fed rate cuts , trillion dollar bailout .He also warned top QFII
management on Peking Univ June 2007 International
Financial Engineering Conference that global MBS, CDO hedge fund, betting
on the wrong side of interest rate, housing price resulted
default, credit crisis in 2008-09 and China overheated housing, stock market
wealth gain resulted inflation over 8. 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank
credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets
follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai
A testing 1800- 2800 till summer 2009
US still facing recession through 2009, even with slight recovery in 2 Q , it
will give up its gain in 3 Q, after rebate impact slowdown, and out of summer
peak demand, US and China will facing deflation in the second half 2009.
Comment by Warren Huang Yahoo Finance, Sept 1, 2011
Yes ,US bond bubble with 10 year yield
below 1.99 % will burst eventually, with current double dip recession, it talk
about more stimulus for job creation, will certainly slowdown the deficit
reduction and spending cut required by the debt ceiling requirement, bond may
facing another downgrade responding to widening debt, this debt bubble will lead
to bond bubble burst.
Any inflationary pressure due to QE3, will certainly drag down bond price and
push bond yield over 2.5%.
Gold bubble will burst to approaching double dip recession in the month ahead
and next year. it facing 1900- 2000 resistance and may retreat with oil price
plunge to 1500- 1600 before
the recession come From demand side gold price, it goes with dollar which will
stabilize due to weak EURO and Japan economy, and oil price will plunge,
iinflation will eventually cooling.
details www.osawh.com/goldf.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
¡@
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog ¡Von negative bond yield December 9, 2008 at 3:27 pm
That is the severe recession
phenomenon, happen in 1990 Japan super housing and stock market bubble burst,
with interest rate cut to zero, bond yield approaching zero.
negative yield indicating deflation pressure. that is kind of treasury bubble
recently induced by Fed cut 30 year bond yield to create super low 30 year mortgage
rate of 4.57 %.
Comment by on Wall Street Journal Market Beat treasury yield -June 26 2008 at 12:12 pm
I warned on this blog Sept 2007 and2008 March that Fed and
market, economist were underestimated oil price impact on inflation , 10 yr
bond will approach 4.5 %, 2 yr bond at 1.5 % is ridiculously low, would
break 3 %. bond yield will reflect increasing inflationary
pressure due to soaring oil price this summer, until economy plunge into
recession.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/prod01.html
Treasury yield
Comment by on Wall Street Journal Market Beat - May 16, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I warned on this blog early
this year that Fed aggressive rate cuts will lead dollar plunge drive oil,
commodities price and inflation to new high, T bond yield are too low, 10 year
yield will break 4 %, 3 month T bill will follow 10 yr T-bond yield, up and
cutting Ted spread continue into summer, repeating last summer T bill, T-bond
yield rebound.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/prod01.htm www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
daily blog
Comment by
on Wall Street Journal Market Beat - May 19, 2008 at 6:12 pm
¢âed Spread
Derivatives Take Over the World
Posted by Tim
Annett Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. Sep. 27, 2007
Yesterday investors learned that
trading in currencies is exploding. Emily Barrett reports on another market
that¡¦s growing in leaps and bounds:
The first six months of this year saw more
rapid growth in the global derivatives market, led by the
burgeoning equity derivatives sector, the International Swaps and Derivatives
Association said Wednesday.
The teeming market for interest-rate
derivatives reached $347.09 trillion by the end of June ¡X which
marks a 21% increase since the beginning of the year, the industry body said at
its annual conference in New York. Derivatives allow hedging or speculative investment by taking
positions on the performance of an underlying asset.
The credit derivatives sector, which allows
investors to gain exposure to corporate creditworthiness, grew
even faster. That market expanded by almost a third in the same period to a
notional outstanding volume of $45.46 trillion, from $34.42 trillion at the end
of 2006. This nevertheless takes a little off the pace the industry has seen so
far. Last year, according to ISDA, the notional volume of credit derivative
contracts outstanding more than doubled.
Indeed, the fastest growth was in the
niche area of equity derivatives, which includes equity swaps,
options and forwards. By mid-year, total contracts amounted to $10.1 trillion ¡X
39% more than at the end of 2007.
The derivatives market¡¦s continued expansion is testimony to what has become
its central role in capital markets, particularly during the liquidity crisis
of the past couple of months, according to ISDA Chief Executive Officer Robert Pickel
. ¡§We expect this strong volume to
continue over the 2007 second half, as privately negotiated derivatives have provided
liquidity and functioned efficiently through the recent market volatility,¡¨
he said.
We should
looking the risks side of these 345 billions interest rate derivatives, The
LTCM hedging fund failure
is good example of betting on the wrong side of interest rate spread of junk
bond resulted loss.
Beware of our uncertainties in near term inflation and interest rate, betting on Fed continue rate cuts on top of
skyrocketing asset prices. details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by - September 26, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Dr. Huang warned on Wall Street Journal Sept. 17, market beat and real time economy Blog
July all
time high Dow Jones index already pushed housing prices up 5 %, Aug Fed inject
100 billion into the banking systems and 50 points discount cut already
increased m2 money supply from 3.5 % a year ago to 6.68 % ( vs,
July
6.15 %), This month¡¦s Fed fund and discount rate cut is definitely raise the
money supply growth to 7.5 %, that
will surely drive the inflation rate up again ( we already have first 8 month
CPI up 3.7 %).Oil price already break 82,
challenging 85-90 this winter, and may go to 100, next spring if
inflation getting worse,
that is why 10 yr bond yield up to 4.5 %, it will be back to 5 % by the end of
this year
Fed is putting too much weight on near term growth, which we are already
overheated by asset prices
bubbles, while ignoring again asset bubble induced inflation pressure.
detail can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by - September 19, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Global Strategic
Management OSA forecasts, tracking global central
banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global
OSA inflation, interest rate, government, corporate
bond yields, fixed income predicted Nov. 2003 that soaring oil
commodities, metal prices hit 20 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation
to 5.1 % resulted series rate hikes after May.
www.osawh.com About OSA Products & Services Nobel Prize dream
friendly link
to www.derivativesportal.org of Eurex and
IMC major currency, futures, derivatives trader in Europe
By Dr. Warren Huang,
Pioneer of two master hands
thousands proactive structural dynamic simulators controlling
global macroeconomy, inflation, interest rates,
currency market forces prices mechanism , trained 1000 economic students
tracking simulate 100 countries macro-financial, industrial, trade economic
impact on currency prices mechanism, wrote thousands articles and consulting to
Taiwan 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries , 5000 commodity, products daily
currencies, import/export pricing strategy in global currency crisis
since 1985. He has been invited by 24 US, ECB, Asian central governors,
financial risk management conferences tracking, forecast the root causes,
onset, recovery , early warning of global currency crisis He accurately predicted on this website and to 70
global oil, gas and downstream executives in his Beijing risk management
workshop Feb 23-25 that oil price rebounded from 40 to 69 in summer 2005 , He
predicted on Nov 18, 2005, Beijin to 40 global oil
CEO, executives that oil prices will soar to 80 in summer due to soaring demand
and tight supply, not geopolitical reasons and soaring US trade deficit
to 70 and Greenspan, Bernanke did too little too late in rate hikes resulted
excessive consumer, business demand is incapable to support weak dollar
plunged to 1.25- 1.32 Euro , 105- 119 Yen ., gold price will soar to 750
push US inflation up 3.5 - 4.5 % and China PPI up 5.0 % in summer
2006, US will continue raise rates into the summer, 10 year bond yield up
5.5 %, as China raised lending rate 0.27 % to 5.86 %, and deposit reserve
ratio to 10.5 % inter-bank rate will rebound to 3 % to cut housing, auto
bubble and excessive fixed investments and liquidity in asset markets.
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural
Dynamic Global Economic Policy , inflation, interest
rataes Systems Simulation:
Monetary macroeconomic policy
Financial Economics Industrial Economy
Regional Economy Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Global Trade Economics
Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman
and other financial, mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's earning again,
underestimated oil, commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on
inflation, expecting rake cut resulted betting on the wrong side of interest
rates, bond yield drag 10 yr bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang
predicting 5.25 %) and housing price, resulted billion dolars mortgage loan default and mortgage bond hedge
fund bankruptcy
Proactive structural
Asset price impact on inflation
Dr. Warren Huang directed 1000 students tracking accurately last 20 years 100 countries
inflation rate by
Two master hands
controlling China/US/Global inflation Rates =F ( Domestic money supply growth,
external oil, commodities , asset prices shock) = F ( domestic consumer demand,
currency, oil, commodities, asset prices shock)
Two master hands
controlling China/US/Global interest rates and bond yields = F( Domestic
money supply growth, external oil, commodities, asset prices ,inflation rates )
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices
Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators
tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial
crisis, asset
bubble, and daily capital market asset ( interest rate, currency,
commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces
mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain
cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily
economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital
market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to 24 US,
European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and
wealth management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and
on this website www.osawh.com
tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives universities since 1998.
Global Financial Banking Crisis,
Systems Risks , asset bubbles Causes, Onset, Spread (Contagion) Tracking,
Prevention, Risks Management
OSA pioneering two master hands
controlling , tracking global runaway inflation, -Interest rates , bond
yields , swap, spread Risks simulation, early warning
Various
interest rate instruments are used by global central banks in applying monetary
policy to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability. (
growth without bubble burst)
Global Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/ Basel II risk
management lecture/workshops tours
(covered thousands
lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million , banking, finance
corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives investors since
1983, by your expert 80 )
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Management
Asian Finance, capital market
conference on
Monetary policy impact on
Asian and China economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master
hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote
600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters
daily/weekly NT/ 100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40
to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian
financial crisis. He warned that any free
float of RMB will lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation
import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and repeat past global
financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic
policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual (
starting with 5 % band) widening trading band is the best approach,
regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. Greenspan agree
with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global
crisis
Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in
good hands predicted Nov. 2003 that soaring oil commodities, metal
prices hit 20 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3.8 % resulted rate
hikes after May 2004 and again in 2006 predicted inflation US slowdown in 2007
Hundred thousands integrated,
global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation
Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar
exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate,
Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange
rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank
rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the
following goal, mission, performance oriented
outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops
tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises
board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets
decision needs:
OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital
market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing
strategy, mutual fund optimal asset allocation equities, bond,
currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,
risk hedging tracking/forecasts month ahead the root causes,
onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central
bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences
and millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this
website since 1998 . Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives,
investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops
tracking his last 20 years results predicted China 1994-96 runaway
inflation macroeconomic control, softlanding and to
20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on 2000 IT bubble
burst plunge 70- 90 % and mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking,
old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund
plunged 50- 70 % July 2001 to Beijin China
Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks
rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq
from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market
Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 % 2003 March
rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002 to 50
central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 Nov. 2003
to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1, 2, 3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin
Nov. Asian/China Finance,
Capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2 with excellent
feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify
month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China
blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value
investing China mutual shares up 80 %and and to
China economists meeting Fudan
University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities
prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future,
derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4
%, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit
ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004), US entering second leg economic recovery
due to excessive rate, tax cut , following 2003 year third quarter first leg
boom bubble corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over
100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over
66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year
high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created,
soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third
quarter and peaking out , bubble burst thereafter, second quarter
bubble CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow
Greenspan raise interest rate in summer , overoptimistic over US
economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT and blue chips
banking shares and its mutual fund facing correction 2005 , Dow will
be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq 1850- 2150 ,
Taiwan index 5560-6200, Henseng 11000- 14000,
Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1150- 1350, Shenzhen 3000- 3500, Euro : 1.28- 1.39 , Yen 100-105, China slowdown will
drag US, Asian and European recovery and stocks gave up all this year
gain.
oil, metal prices will be
soared to 24 year high in the summer,2005 pushing up inflation and interest
rate, bond yield, will put pressure on global government bond prices and
corporate convertible bond yields in March 2005
Thousands structural, dynamic
simulators predict the unpredictable 3 month ahead, the global macro-economic
, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubbles early warning market
prices mechanism, market forces and markets crash
Inflation rate =F( money supply growth,
consumer spending, dollar exchange rate, commodity, oil prices)
Interest rate = F( money supply growth,
oil, commodity prices, inflation rate)
government, corporate bond yield
= F( money supply growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate, exchange rate)
) Stock indices = F( consumer spending,
interest rate, dollar exchange rate)
These equations tracking 40 countries
last 20 years monetary policy, currency impact on consumer demand,
inflation, and inflation , monetary policy impact on daily open market inter
bank rates,
and monetary policy, inflation ,
exchange rate impact on inflation linked bond prices, yield prices, interest
rate derivatives swap, bond spread prices mechanism modeling
As consumer spending boosted by US rate
and tax cut and US 50 % plunge against Euro, lead to soaring metal, steel,
aluminum, copper, gold, cotton, soybean, platinum Commodity, oil prices
soared to 19 year high will drive US CPI to 3.6 %, core inflation to 2.6
% in the summer , serious housing bubble will lead to more rate hike, UK,
Australia already raised rate despite US high unemployment in the election
year and global IT and banking shares, China, Euro, Korea, Canada will follow
US raise rate later this year, bond yield will soar before that.
Global Money, Currency Markets Interest
Rate, Inflation Currency exchange Rates Simulation Over thousands of
artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based
tracking global central banks monetary policy impact on daily global
financial money market interest rates, inflations, currency exchange
rates Operations Simulations Analysis experts systems have been
developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European. South American
financial markets tracking, simulate US Fed and global central bankers monetary
policy and it's impact on inflation, capital flow, short (Fed Fund rate) , long term interest rates (prime, bond
yield), trade statistics impact on currency exchange rates, investment
risk management for helping 20 millions global fund and
currency trade managers, investors to take advantage of investment
opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis.
2007 US Treasury Bond Markets Prices,
Yields OSA Forecasts
Maturity
Yield
Forecast
10
Yr
4.52-
5.24
30 Yr
6- 6.50
2005 Global inflation rate and interest
rates, bond yield markets Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Forecasts
|
country |
CPI inflation/ GDP |
3 month money market |
10 yr gov. bond yield |
corporate bond yield |
|
Australia |
2.3 /1 .9 |
4.5- |
4.5 |
6.4- 6.7 |
|
Britain |
3.4-/- 2.20 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
4.2- 6.0 |
|
Canada |
2.- 2.9/1.3 |
1.2 |
3.55- |
4.75- |
|
Japan |
1.7/ -3 |
0.3- |
1.3- |
1.9- 2.05 |
|
Sweden |
1.4- 2.0 / 3.0- 3.3 |
2.12- 2.75 |
3.90- 4.65 |
2.0- 2.513.3 |
|
Switzerland |
1.2- 1.5/ 2.5- 2.90 |
1.4--1..45 |
2.70- 2.90 |
2.12.-2.850 |
|
US |
1.2- /-0.5 |
0.25 |
2.5 |
3.65- 4.980 |
|
Euro area |
2.0- 2.5/ 2.0- 2.5 |
2.980- 3.5 |
3.9- 4.50 |
4.54-
5.00 |
Emerging Markets Economy
and Financial Markets Operations Simulation Analysis
|
Countries |
GDP |
CPI inflation |
inter-bank interest rate |
industrial production |
|
China |
9.9- 11.27 % |
1.9 3.80 |
1.9- 3.6 |
17 % |
|
Hong Kong |
5- 5.6 |
1.9--2.50 |
4.5- 5.0 |
5- 6. |
|
India |
7.0- 9.0 |
4.57- 6.50 |
5.6- 6.6 |
6.-8 |
|
Indonesia |
4.5- 4.9 |
15- 17 |
13- 15 |
-17- -15 |
|
Malaysia |
5.0- 6.0 |
4.0- 5.60 |
3.5- 3.90 |
3.4- 4.5 |
|
Philippines |
5.3- 7.0 |
5.5--7.4 |
7.5- 8.00 |
-11- -12 |
|
Singapore |
8- 9.0 |
2-3.0 |
0.5- 1.5 |
5- 11 |
|
S. Korea |
4.5- 5.4 |
2.5- 3 |
4.00- 4.50 |
10- 12 |
|
Taiwan |
4.2- 5.5 |
1.3- 2.5 |
1.50- 1.90 |
3 - 7.0 |
|
Thailand |
4.00-5.50 |
5.7- 6.5 |
5.5- 6 |
6- 7.0 |
|
Argentine |
9.00- 9.50 |
2.70- 3.50 |
3.50- 4.50 |
10.00- 13.00 |
|
Brazil |
-1.5 -1.55 |
7.80- 8.50 |
16.3- 17.5 |
2.0- 3.0 |
|
Columbia |
3.5-- 4.5 |
6.30- 7.00 |
7.82- 8.40 |
4- 5.0 |
|
Mexico |
2.00- 3.00 |
4.20- 4.50 |
5.60- 6.00 |
2.0- 3.0 |
|
Venezuela |
-7.1---5.0 |
26.5- 28.0 |
15.0- 17.0 |
100 |
|
Czech Rep. |
3.0-- 4.00 |
2.30- 2.60 |
2.02- 2.50 |
8.0- 9.40 |
|
Hungary |
2.50- 3.50 |
6.60- 7.00 |
12.44- 13.60 |
9.00- 12.50 |
|
Poland |
3,50- 4.22 |
1.70- 2.50 |
5.40- 5.70 |
20- 23 |
|
Russia |
6.50-- 7.50 |
9.4- 10.50 |
11.0- 12.00 |
5- 7.5 |
click here for China government,
corporate convertible bond yields OSA forecasts
1998 June Tracking results:
Our June forecast accurately predicted
China's 1.5 % cut in prime rate in late June., Hong Kong's short term interest
rate hike to 14 % to defend the HK dollar.( raise interest rate spread ), US
Fed fund rate drop to 5 %, 30 yr bond yield down to 5.6
%
July Aug. Tracking results
: Accurately predicted on July 20 the US stock market overheat, and
dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, Fed fund rate rebound to 6 %,(soaring US trade
deficit due to strong currency resulted export decline) Greenspan warned next
day on interest rate hike Aug. 17 accurately predicted the stock
market slump will provide natural cool off without raising interest rate, but
no rate cut.
Oct-Dec Tracking result:
Accurately predicted in Oct. 4 that US Fed will cut fund rate to 4.8 % to 5 %
, 30 yr Bond yield 4.8- 5.2 % to avoid resulted credit
crunch cutting interest rate spread, led Dollar plunge from 147 to 115 Yen and
improve US export, due to weaker dollar.
1999 Jan-Feb tracking results:
Accurately predicted US 3 interest rate
cuts were excessive, lead to overheated stock markets, and GNP of 5.8 %,
Dow starting correction at 9600, pulled back to 9100, Fed fund rate, Bond
yield bounced back to 5.5 %, dollar rebound to 123 Yen
1999 May-Aug tracking results:
Accurately predicted at Macao
central banks and Taipei pacific basin finance conference May 15-May 28
that US 3 interest rate cuts were excessive, oil price rebounded 80
% lead to US inflation soared to 2.8 %, overheated stock,
properties, and labor markets, will force US Fed to raise interest rates
5 times starting June 1999, Dow Jones Index will retreat to 10,000
, Bond yield bounced back to 6.5 %, the widening US trade deficit will
pull dollar to 102 Yen, Strong Yen will hurt Japan export.
dollar has support at 102
2000 Apr-May: Accurately predicted more
US interest rates hikes to cool the the
consumer demand, increased US interest rate spread lead to dollar strength
despite record high trade deficit. EURO broke 0.9 support due to weak economy,. However weaker EURO helps export and improve trade
surplus, EURO has support around 0.86, will rebound to 0.95
Asian currency facing depreciation
pressure again due to soaring import cutting into trade surplus, whiling US
interest rates hikes
US Inflation and Fed fund, prime rate,
bond yield Simulation
Asian turmoil and strong dollar
led falling oil energy and commodity prices with only 1 % inflation,
while service sector inflation at 3 % due to the expansionary money
supply(reach 10.5 %) pulling the Fed fund rate down to 4.5 %,
result ed labor shortage and soaring properties and
stock prices. Fed Greenspan was concerned about the Asian
crisis resulted global deflation, and Long Term Capital and other hedging fund
resulted global financial markets huge loss and credit squeeze, announced third
surprise 0.25 % rate cut, Canada, UK, Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand, Singapore
follow the rate cut to pre-crisis level, pushed Dow break 10,000
to 11,200 and Hong Kong, Singapore Asian stock index to recent new high,
The three interest rate cuts dollar , put pressure off global
interest rate and currency. As crude oil price more than
doubled to 25, due to increased demand from US and Asian recovery, US dollar
plunges 20 % to 103, soaring US, stock and housing prices
further boosted consumer and pushed US inflation to 2.7 %, lead Fed three
interest rate hikes to 5.5 % to slowdown the overheated overheated
economy predicted accurately by this Website .
Greenspan raised concern on the
possible asset burst caused abrupt change of confidence resulted future stock
prices plunge. He is calling focus on the overpriced stock prices resulted
excessive household, business spending pushing soaring house prices, will
tracking asset prices impact on macro economic GDP and prices
1999-2000 OSA simulation
Forecasts: Asian economic recovery, soaring stock prices putting
pressure on global prices and inflation. Daily Fed fund rate will
be (5.2-- 5.75 %), money supply growth 7.50 -8.8- %) 30
yr. bond yield rebound due to US inflation, and weaker dollar,
yield between 5.9 and 6.5 % , US dollar rebounded follow
interest rate hike , but hurt by widening US trade deficit and European
and US slowdown, while Japan's new economic stimulation package and
bank reform, lead to dollar plunge to 103 against Yen ( as Dr Huang reiterated
that Yen was oversold fail to reflect it's huge reserve, trade and current
account surplus) Yen will be traded between 102 and 108, and 1.8
and 1.85 mark , 1.03 and 1.09 ECU EURO currency,
2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig
inot recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion
worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 US 11 rate cut to 40
year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8
% to 6 % % in late 2001, re sulted double in oil
prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US
dollar plunged to 115 from 135, inflation soared to 3 %, housing,real
estate bubble (housing prices up 10 %) However, weak dollar, corporate scandal
drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic
stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250,
loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June lead to
renewed
speculatation of Fed rate cut to
stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already
give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks
and bond
Global currency futures
OSA simulation/forecasts
, risk hedging
Asian Inflation and short,
long term interest rate Simulation 991116
China: Asian turmoil resulted
falling export and domestic consumer prices, export decline in in
January, The Asian turmoil will delay the result the last year
March and June and recent prime rate cut to 5.8 % and housing market
stimulation package to raise the money supply growth rate to the 17, first
quarter GNP of 8.3 , second, third quarter 7.4 % and poor
corporate earning outlook, state enterprise reform lead to massive layoff,
Consumer and stock investors confidence rebounded after interest rate cut
and measures to raise
income for unemployed and low
income people through 50 billion RMB stimulus package. Recent tax on
interest income may have near term negative impact on consumer to boost
domestic demand, and investors confidence
Hong Kong: Asian turmoil resulted
rising short term and long term interest rates to defend the HK dollar to stick
to US Dollar. The 60 % slump in properties and 60 %stock prices and falling export and domestic prices, resulted widening
trade and current account deficit, which put further pressure on the HK dollar
and interest rate. US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off HK
interest and exchange rate, allowed HK to cut interest rate to precrisis level, lead to Henseng
index rebound from 6200 to 18600 and money supply growth doubled from 4
to 8 %( down from 97 year's 18 % peak to 4.4 % in 98 due to the slump in
stocks and properties markets). US 6 rate hike and 2000 US bubble
burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion
worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 ,Hong Kong follow US 11
rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand
from 911 -1.8 % to 6 % in late 2001,pulling US and Hong Kong out of
recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade
deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,
However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed
overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction
to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar
wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and
inflation to 1.6 % in May-June drag Henseng f rom 15000 to 9500 lead to renewed
speculation of Fed rate
cut to stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year
low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag
further the stocks and bond and will drag Hong Kong into recession and Henseng into further correction
Taiwan: Asian turmoil resulted
falling export and domestic prices, shrinking trade
surplus, which put pressure on the NT dollar and interest rate.
Last winter US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off interest and NT
exchange rate, (short term interest rate to 4. 5to 5%), The money
supply growth already down from last year's 11 % peak to 7 % due to the slump
in stocks and export markets earlier 2001. Government 150 billion
NT low interest housing loan and cut banking tax from 5 % to 3 % and US
and Asian recovery improved export and corporate earning
outlook will support consumer, stock investors confined- ce. However Sept earthquake resulted
production cutback and economic slowdown, money supply down from 10 % to 8 %,
and falling interest rates. Which will rebound early next year, start of as 150
billion NT reconstruction projects 2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturing in to recession
in 2001
and 911 made situtaion
worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 , Taiwan follow US 11
rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand
from 911 -1.8 % to 6 % in late 2001,pulling US and Taiwan out
of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade
deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135, However,
weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated
Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off
the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in
May-June , strong NT already hurt Taiwan export and falling prices profits drag
Taiwan Index from 6500 to 4500 lead to renewed
speculation of Fed rate
cut to stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 45 year
low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag
further the Taiwan stocks
Any Taiwan's rate cut will not help
Taiwan stock either.
2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturing in to recession
in 2001
and 911 made situation worse, oil
prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 ,Hong Kong follow US 11
rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand
from 911 -1.8 % to 6 % in late 2001,pulling US and Hong Kong out of
recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade
deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,
However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed
overheated Dow, old economic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off
the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in
May-June drag Henseng from 15000 to 9500 lead
to renewed speculation
of Fed rate cut to stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond
market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging
dollar, resulted 54 trillion dollar wealth gain and housing, equities market
bubbles , and further rate hikes to cool of the inflationary pressure,
inflation slowdown
Asian turmoil, Inflation,
short, long Term interest rate, trade impact on Asian Currency
Simulation
June- Sept 1998 Tracking results:
Our June 14 forecasts accurately predicted China's RMB and HK dollar stay
firm against falling Yen. and Taiwan's NT dollar
will be traded between 34 and 35. Japan's Yen will be traded between 130 and
148.
Oct-Dec 1998 - Jan-Feb 1999
Tracking results: Our Oct 4 forecasts accurately predicted China's
RMB and HK dollar stay firm against falling Yen. and
Taiwan's NT dollar will be traded between 32.5 and 33. Japan's Yen will
be traded between 115 and 125.All the other Asian currency will stay firm
China: Asian turmoil
resulted falling export and domestic consumer prices, export growth
down from - 1 %, Asian turmoil and heavy flood damage will delay the result
of March and June prime rate cut 1 % and domestic
housing market stimulation package to raise the money supply growth rate to the
18 %(current ly below 15%) and the GNP 8.3 %, first
quarter, 7.3 second, third quarter soaring trade and current account sur plus and foreign reserve (150 Billion) will support
strong RMB, 8.3, dispite of China recent
rate cut to boost the domestic demand .
Hong Kong: Asian turmoil resulted
rising short term and long term interest rates to defend the HK dollar peg to
US Dollar. The 70 % slump in properties and 60 % stock prices and falling
export and domestic prices, resulted widening trade and current account deficit,
US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off HK dollar and cut rate to precrisis level , interest rate(short term ( 5.5 to 6
%)long term (9 to 10 %),HK rate will follow US rate hike
Taiwan : Asian turmoil in 1998 and US
recession in 2001 resulted falling export and domestic prices, , Recent US
rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off NT dollar, Taiwan export rebound,
soaring trade surplus supporting NT (will be traded between 33.5. and
33.9 )and interest rate (short term 4.5 to 5%), improved trade surplus
support strong NT Strong NT hurt export and cut into trade surplus, it
already plunged from 32.2 to 34
Japan: badly hurt by Asian turmoil, trillion bank
bad loan and domestic slump in stock and properties. The money supply
already dip to 3.5 % from the peak of 13 % in 1990, the benefit of 230
billion tax cut and bank bailout start to realize. The interest rate is already
down to 0.1 %, with second quarter GNP return to7.1 %, Nikkei rebound 30
% lead to doubled money supply growth up to 5 % growth and soaring
trade surplus will provide support to YEN, recent
economic stimulation package and bank reform and US trade widening
deficit lift the Yen to 102, in 2000
2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig
in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion
worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 US 11 rate
cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from
911 -1.8 % to 6 % in late 2001,pulling US and Japan out of
recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade
deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,
However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed
overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 %
correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7
trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin
May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June drag Nikkeif
rom 12000 to 9300 However, strong
YEN will hurt export and cut into trade surplus and the strength of
Yen will be traded 115-121
India: Asian turmoil resulted falling
export and domestic prices, high inflation at 15 % will push the interest rate
higher to 10 % and put the pressure on India currency to 45, Although recent US
rate cut of 0.75 % took some pressure off (will be traded
between 42.6 and 45)and interest rate(short term 8 to 10%),
EURO, EMU and European currencies
and Stock Markets OSA:
Tracking Result Nov-Dec. 1998
Dr Warren Huang was invited to speak to
Rome's Post EURO Banking and Finance Industry Strategy on Nov. 27,(Sponsored by
JP Morgan and Rome University) and to Stockholm Sweden on Dec 19, 1998.
He accurately predicted in his speech that the 11 European countries joined the unified currency and single central bank,
interest rate . The post union central banker already announ
ced the union interest converge to
3 %. These 11 countries will have 6.4 trillion GNP, next only to US. with huge trade surplus and current account balance, They
are supported by the big high talented low cost Eastern European manpower
pools. and also benefited by the US economic
expansion, recent restructuring and merger with US compe
titors, with be replacing Asian as the super economic
power in the near future. These Euro pean stock
markets already attracted many global investors, after last Sept. setback
due to Russia crisis and Long Term Capital trouble , EURO will replace Yen as
strong currency 11 stock markets will rebound in 1999, continue to
make new highs, the any setback due to the Russia, Brazil crisis
will be good opportunites to accumulate for future
appreciation.. 2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq
plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig in to recession
in 2001
and 911 made situtaion
worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002 EURO follow US 11
rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand
from 911 -1.8 % to 6 % in late 2001,pulling US and EURO out of
recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade
deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 1.01 from 0.83,
However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed
overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 %
correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7
trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin
May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June , strong EURO cut into EURO export,
profit drag EURO back to 0.95, and stock for 35 % correction
speculatation of EURO and Fed rate cut to stimulate consumer
demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to
soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks and bond
EMU European
Central Bank money supply, iinterest rate, Asian Financial Crisis, currency exchange
rate Simulation 990506
June-Dec.
tracking results: Our June 18 and Oct. 4
forecasts accurately predicted UK overnight rate: 5.2-5.6 &, pound traded
between 1.6-1.68. falling German short term rate at 3.2 % , Mark traded
between 1.66- 1.84, F. Franc traded between 5.7-6.1 S. Franc traded between 1.23-1.354,
Italian lire 1650- 1690, EURO, ECU between 1,06 and 1.20
UK : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil
energy and commodities prices with inflation at 3 % due to the
expansionary money supply(reach upper limit of 11.2 %) pulling the short term
rate down to 5 %, resulted labor shortage and soaring properties, stock prices
and The UK 3.5 % inflation has pushed interest rate to 8.5 % near term
overnight rate (7.0-8.0%), money supply growth 9-10 %) UK followed US 3 rate cuts pull the pound plunge
to 1.62 widening
UK trade deficit will cutting into the strength of the pound Pound
will be in the range 1.52- 1.65, UK intention to Join EURO will speedup
interest rate cuts to 3 % level , However, UK inflation due to soaring stock
prices led Bank of England follow US raise interest rate TO 5.5 % ,to support
the pound.
German : Asian turmoil and strong
dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation,
expansionary money supply of 5 %) pulling the German and EURO overnight
rate down to 2.5 %, The high German unemployed- met rate at 10.5 %, will leave
room for German money supply grow Th and lower
interests. However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to EURO
export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth
5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target. the
expanding German trade surplus and US rate cut will support German Mark, recent
overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, ECB rate hike will
lead to German recent GNP Growth slowdown to 1.9 %, speculating, it will
be traded between 1.75 and 1.85, weak Mark led to export and GNP
rebound.
France : Asian turmoil and strong
dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation,
expansionary money supply of 6 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3. %, The
high France unemplyment rate at 10.5 %,
However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to EURO export boost
resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.9 %, money supply growth to 5.9 %
pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target. will lead to France GNP Growth slowdown .
Swiss : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil
energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation, The low unemplyment rate at 4.5 %, will and low money supply growth
leave little room for Swiss money supply growth and lower
interests. Recent EURO interest rate hike of 0.5% will push Swiss
near term overnight rate over 2 %, money supply growth 3.0 % recent
overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, . S. Fr will be
traded between 1.45 and 1.59
Italy: Asian turmoil and strong dollar
led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 2 % inflation,
expansionary money supply of 10 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3.5 %,
The high unemplyment
rate at 11.5 %, However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to EURO
export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth
5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation
target. money supply growth 5 %the expanding Italy trade surplus and US
rate cut will support Italian Lira, recent overheated US economy calling
for interest rate hike, while EURO recent GNP Growth slowdown , Lira, it
will be traded between 1750-1800
Sweden : Asian turmoil and strong
dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation,
expansionary money supply of 3 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3 %, The
low unemplyment rate at 6 % low money supply
growth leave room for Sweden money supply growth and lower
interests. money supply growth 3.5- 4..5 %), recent
overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, However, soaring oil
prices, Asian recovery lead to EURO export boost resulted inflation
soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth 5.9 % pushed ECB raised
interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target and slowdown EURO and
Sweden recent GNP Growth S. Kronor will be traded 7.95-8.1
Emerging
Markets Financial Crisis and Recovery Simulation
Russia Crisis : Asian turmoil and
strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with 8 % inflation,
Tight money supply to support the Rupee due to Asian Turmoil resulted
declining trade and current account surplus. forced
the interest rate tripled to 150 %. 1998 Sept.
announcement of to float the Ruble to 9.5 lead to credit defaultt
and Yeltin fired prime minister resulted Ruble broke
9.5 to 20 and stock market slump and rebound. The the
interest rate raised to 200 % stabilized the ruble to 9.5 after the new prime
minister. However recent announcement of increase money supply and drop the
interest rate to 25%, lead to Ruble drop
to 25. recent US interest rate cut took some
pressure off Russia interest rate and Ruble rate . Ruble will be traded
around 23-25
However, The soaring oil prices,
falling Ruble boosted Russian export and trade surplus, stock market rebound
lead Russia out of recession.
South
American Financial Crisis, Recovery Simulation 991116:
Brazil
: Hurt by ASEAN and Asian, Russia turmoil,
resulted export declined and excessive government spending resulted trade
and current account deficit (43 billion dollars), last year 41 billion IMF
rescue can not improve it's global competitiveness and cut deficit, resulted
risks in failing to fulfill IMF commit- met lead to recent float
real to 1.53 and plunge to 2.7 depreciation and rising interest
rate raised to 37.5 is insufficient to keep Real below
2.0, The Asian recovery, strong US demand lead to Brazil agricultural
products prices and export rebound (coffee) Falling interest rate and
soaring stock prices took Brazil out of recession
Real will be traded between 1.8 and 2.0, interest rate will
be 20 % to support the Real . Real
currency. is continue under pressure, until significant
improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,
Recent US and European interest
rate hike will slowdown demand have partially offseting
the Asian recovery
Mexico : Hurt by ASEAN and Asian , Russia and Brazil
turmoil resulted properties and stock prices and export slump. the widening trade and current account deficit took peso
depreciate ion from 7.5 to 10.6 . It will be under pressure,
raising interest rate from 15 % to 36 % stabilized
the peso around 11, Fortunately, the US and European demand have
partially offseting the Asian slowdown. Mexico
stock index will be traded between 5000 and 6000
Argentina :Hurt by ASEAN and
Asian, Russia , Brazil turmoil and US, EURO, Asian recession
resulted export decline , 132 billion default due to it's currency peg to the
dollar( warned by Dr. Warren Haung at 1999 EUropean Financial Management conference,, in Barcelona,
Spain. The Argintinal currency is foreced
to float from 1.0 to 2.3, to boost export will follow Brazil Real
to 2.5 significant improvement in trade and account deficit turning
into surplus, due to global recession. Fortunately,
the US and European demand have partially offseting
the Asian slowdown. The Argentine stock slump due to rising interest rate, will be trade between 400 and 500.
Key Benefits:
¡P Billions dollars interest rates, currency exchange profits can be generated while risks/loss minimized with these reliable global interest rate, inflation rate , currency exchange rates simulation. It will help the central bankers money supply and the corporate capital expenditure decisions to control inflation and in global asset allocation
¡P
Also help investors in investment timing in global investing.
¡@