osawh    Innovative Proactive Structural Dynamic Interest rate OSA

Proactive Structural Global  Inflation, Interest Rates, Strategic Fixed Income / Bond Market Futures, Derivatives Prices Operations Simulation Analysis/ Forecasts :

OSA pioneer, Dr. Warren Huang innovation in Two master hands integrating , tracking, controlling global macro-economy and industrial sectors demand, prices mechanism   through  Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Global Macroeconomic Growth, Inflation, Interests rate Government, Corporate Bond yield, Futures, commodities, oil, derivatives prices modeling forecasts,  Inflation-linked bond  yield, prices  swap, spread prices mechanism, market forces  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis, Forecasts:
Mortgage Bond Crisis/Risks Early Warning   Dr. Warren Huang (¶ÀµØ«n³Õ¤h) Pioneer,  housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Real TIme Economic , Market beat 
Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag  US dollar to 1.55-1.65 EURO, 90- 105 Yen , economy into inflationary recession and US, global  stock indices bear  market correction, oil above 110, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar  MBS hedge fund  failure. despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8. 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit  tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3000- 4000 till summer 2008   

Derivatives Take Over the World

Posted by Tim Annett Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. Sep. 27, 2007
Yesterday investors learned that trading in currencies is exploding. Emily Barrett reports on another market that¡¦s growing in leaps and bounds:
The first six months of this year saw more rapid growth in the global derivatives market, led by the burgeoning equity derivatives sector, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said Wednesday.
The teeming market for interest-rate derivatives reached $347.09 trillion by the end of June ¡X which marks a 21% increase since the beginning of the year, the industry body said at its annual conference in New York. Derivatives allow hedging or speculative investment by taking positions on the performance of an underlying asset.
The credit derivatives sector, which allows investors to gain exposure to corporate creditworthiness, grew even faster. That market expanded by almost a third in the same period to a notional outstanding volume of $45.46 trillion, from $34.42 trillion at the end of 2006. This nevertheless takes a little off the pace the industry has seen so far. Last year, according to ISDA, the notional volume of credit derivative contracts outstanding more than doubled.
Indeed, the fastest growth was in the niche area of equity derivatives, which includes equity swaps, options and forwards. By mid-year, total contracts amounted to $10.1 trillion ¡X 39% more than at the end of 2007.
The derivatives market¡¦s continued expansion is testimony to what has become its central role in capital markets, particularly during the liquidity crisis of the past couple of months, according to ISDA Chief Executive Officer Robert Pickel
. ¡§We expect this strong volume to continue over the 2007 second half, as privately negotiated derivatives have provided liquidity and functioned efficiently through the recent market volatility,¡¨ he said.

Dr. Huang warned on Wall Street Journal Sept. 17, market beat and real time economy Blog

 Global Strategic Management     OSA  forecasts, tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global  
OSA  inflation, interest rate, government, corporate bond yields, fixed income predicted Nov. 2003 that soaring oil commodities, metal prices hit 20 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 5.1 % resulted series rate hikes after May.
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friendly link to www.derivativesportal.org  of  Eurex and IMC major currency, futures, derivatives trader in Europe

By Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of two master hands thousands proactive  structural dynamic simulators controlling global macroeconomy, inflation, interest rates, currency market forces prices mechanism , trained 1000 economic students tracking simulate 100 countries macro-financial, industrial, trade economic impact on currency prices mechanism, wrote thousands articles and consulting to Taiwan 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries , 5000 commodity, products daily currencies, import/export pricing strategy in  global currency crisis since 1985.  He has been invited by 24 US, ECB, Asian central governors, financial risk management conferences tracking, forecast the root causes, onset, recovery , early warning of global currency crisis He accurately predicted on this website and to 70 global oil, gas and downstream executives in  his Beijing risk management workshop Feb 23-25 that oil price rebounded from 40 to 69 in summer 2005 , He predicted on Nov 18, 2005, Beijin to 40 global oil CEO, executives that oil prices will soar to 80 in summer due to soaring demand and tight supply, not geopolitical reasons and   soaring US trade deficit to 70  and Greenspan, Bernanke did  too little too late in rate hikes resulted excessive consumer, business demand is  incapable to support weak dollar plunged to 1.25- 1.32  Euro , 105- 119 Yen ., gold price will soar to 750  push US inflation up 3.5 - 4.5 % and China  PPI up  5.0 % in summer 2006, US  will continue raise rates into the summer, 10 year bond yield up 5.5 %, as China raised lending rate 0.27 % to 5.86 %,  and deposit reserve ratio to 10.5 % inter-bank rate will rebound to 3 %  to cut housing, auto bubble and excessive fixed investments and liquidity in asset markets.
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Economic Policy , inflation, interest rataes  Systems Simulation:
Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics 

Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman and other financial, mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's earning again, underestimated oil, commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on inflation, expecting rake cut resulted betting on the wrong side of interest rates, bond yield drag 10 yr bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang predicting  5.25 %) and housing price, resulted billion dolars mortgage loan default  and mortgage bond hedge fund bankruptcy
Oil prices US and China inflation
Dr. Warren Huang directed 1000 students  tracking accurately last 20 years 100 countries inflation rate by  
Two master hands controlling China/US/Global inflation Rates =F ( Domestic money supply growth, external oil, commodities , asset prices shock) = F ( domestic consumer demand, currency, oil, commodities, asset prices shock)
Two master hands controlling China/US/Global interest rates and bond yields  = F( Domestic money supply growth, external oil, commodities, asset prices ,inflation rates )

Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,  speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998. Global Financial Banking Crisis, Systems Risks , asset bubbles Causes, Onset, Spread (Contagion) Tracking, Prevention, Risks Management
OSA pioneering two master hands controlling , tracking global runaway inflation, -Interest rates , bond yields , swap, spread  Risks simulation, early warning 
Various interest rate instruments are used by global central banks in applying monetary policy to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability. ( growth without bubble burst)

Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual ( starting with 5 % band)  widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. Greenspan agree with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis
 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands predicted Nov. 2003 that soaring oil commodities, metal prices hit 20 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3.8 % resulted rate hikes after May 2004 and again in 2006 predicted inflation US slowdown in 2007
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
 OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted China 1994-96 runaway inflation macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/   photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004),  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following 2003 year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  in  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2005 , Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1850- 2150 , Taiwan index  5560-6200, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1150- 1350, Shenzhen 3000- 3500, Euro : 1.28- 1.39 , Yen 100-105,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
oil, metal  prices will be  soared to 24 year high in the summer,2005 pushing up inflation and interest rate, bond yield, will put pressure on global government bond prices and corporate convertible bond yields in March 2005
Thousands structural, dynamic simulators  predict the unpredictable 3 month ahead, the global macro-economic , capital market asset prices, crisis, bubbles early warning  market prices mechanism, market forces and markets crash
Inflation rate =F( money supply growth, consumer spending, dollar exchange rate, commodity, oil prices)
Interest rate = F( money supply growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate)
government, corporate bond yield  = F( money supply growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate, exchange rate)
) Stock indices = F( consumer spending, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)
These equations tracking 40 countries last 20 years monetary policy, currency  impact on consumer demand, inflation, and inflation , monetary policy impact on daily open market inter bank rates,
and monetary policy, inflation , exchange rate impact on inflation linked bond prices, yield prices, interest rate derivatives swap, bond spread  prices  mechanism modeling
As consumer spending boosted by US rate and tax cut and US 50 % plunge against Euro, lead to soaring metal, steel, aluminum, copper, gold, cotton, soybean, platinum  Commodity, oil prices soared to 19 year high will  drive US CPI to 3.6 %, core inflation to 2.6 % in the summer ,  serious housing bubble will lead to more rate hike, UK, Australia already raised rate despite  US high unemployment in the election year and global IT and banking shares, China, Euro, Korea, Canada will follow US raise rate later this year, bond yield will soar before that.
Global Money, Currency Markets Interest Rate, Inflation Currency exchange Rates Simulation Over  thousands of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based tracking global central banks monetary policy impact on   daily global financial money market interest rates, inflations, currency exchange rates  Operations Simulations Analysis  experts systems have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European. South American financial markets tracking, simulate US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy and it's impact on inflation, capital flow, short (Fed Fund rate) , long term interest  rates (prime, bond yield),  trade statistics impact on currency exchange rates, investment risk  management for helping  20 millions global fund and currency  trade managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis.  
2007 US Treasury Bond Markets Prices, Yields OSA Forecasts
Maturity                    Yield   Forecast               
                         
10 Yr                          4.52- 5.24                                
30 Yr                          6-  6.50                                  

2005 Global inflation rate and interest rates, bond yield markets Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Forecasts

Emerging Markets Economy and Financial Markets Operations Simulation Analysis

click here for China government, corporate convertible  bond  yields OSA forecasts

1998 June Tracking results:
Our June forecast accurately predicted China's 1.5 % cut in prime rate in late June., Hong Kong's short term interest rate hike to 14 % to defend the HK dollar.( raise interest rate spread ), US Fed fund rate drop  to 5 %, 30 yr bond yield down to 5.6 %   
July  Aug. Tracking results :  Accurately predicted on July 20 the US stock market overheat,  and dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, Fed fund rate rebound to 6 %,(soaring US trade deficit due to strong currency resulted export decline) Greenspan warned next day on interest rate hike   Aug. 17 accurately predicted the stock market slump will provide natural cool off without raising interest rate, but no rate cut.
Oct-Dec Tracking result:  Accurately predicted in Oct. 4 that US Fed will cut fund rate to 4.8 % to 5 % ,  30 yr Bond yield  4.8- 5.2 %  to  avoid resulted credit crunch cutting interest rate spread, led Dollar plunge from 147 to 115 Yen and improve US export, due to weaker dollar.
1999 Jan-Feb tracking results:
Accurately predicted US 3 interest rate cuts were excessive, lead to overheated stock markets, and GNP of 5.8 %,  Dow starting correction at 9600, pulled back to 9100, Fed fund rate,  Bond yield bounced back to 5.5 %, dollar rebound to 123 Yen
1999 May-Aug tracking results:
Accurately predicted  at Macao central banks  and Taipei pacific basin finance conference May 15-May 28 that US 3 interest rate cuts were excessive, oil price   rebounded 80 %  lead to US inflation soared to 2.8 %, overheated stock, properties,  and labor markets, will force US Fed to raise interest rates 5 times starting  June 1999, Dow Jones Index will retreat to 10,000 ,  Bond yield bounced back to 6.5 %, the widening US trade deficit will pull  dollar  to 102 Yen,  Strong Yen will hurt Japan export. dollar has support at 102
2000 Apr-May: Accurately predicted more US  interest rates hikes to cool the the consumer demand, increased US interest rate spread lead to dollar strength despite record high trade deficit. EURO broke 0.9 support due to weak economy,. However weaker EURO helps export and improve trade surplus, EURO has support around 0.86, will rebound to 0.95
Asian currency facing depreciation pressure again due to soaring import cutting into trade surplus, whiling US interest rates  hikes 
US Inflation and Fed fund, prime rate, bond yield Simulation
Asian turmoil and strong dollar  led falling oil energy and commodity   prices with only 1 % inflation, while service sector   inflation at 3 % due to the expansionary money supply(reach   10.5 %) pulling the Fed fund rate down to 4.5 %, result ed labor shortage and soaring properties and stock prices.   Fed  Greenspan was concerned about the Asian crisis resulted global deflation, and Long Term Capital and other hedging fund resulted global financial markets huge loss and credit squeeze, announced third surprise 0.25 % rate cut, Canada, UK, Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand, Singapore follow the rate cut to pre-crisis level,   pushed Dow break  10,000 to 11,200 and Hong Kong, Singapore Asian stock index to recent new high,  The three interest  rate cuts dollar , put pressure off global interest rate and currency.    As crude oil price more than doubled to 25, due to increased demand from US and Asian recovery, US dollar plunges 20   %  to 103,  soaring US, stock and housing prices further boosted consumer and pushed US inflation to 2.7 %, lead Fed  three interest rate hikes  to 5.5 % to slowdown the overheated  overheated economy predicted accurately by this Website . 
Greenspan raised concern on the possible asset burst caused abrupt change of confidence resulted future stock prices plunge. He is calling focus on the overpriced stock prices resulted excessive household, business spending pushing soaring  house prices, will tracking asset prices impact on macro economic GDP and  prices

1999-2000 OSA simulation Forecasts:  Asian economic recovery, soaring stock prices   putting pressure on global prices and inflation. Daily  Fed fund rate   will be (5.2--  5.75 %), money supply growth  7.50 -8.8- %)  30 yr. bond yield  rebound due to US inflation, and weaker dollar, yield  between 5.9 and 6.5 % ,  US dollar rebounded follow  interest rate hike , but hurt by widening US trade deficit and  European and US  slowdown,  while Japan's new economic stimulation package and bank reform, lead to dollar plunge to 103 against Yen ( as Dr Huang reiterated that Yen was oversold fail to reflect it's huge reserve, trade and current account surplus) Yen will be   traded between 102 and 108, and  1.8 and 1.85 mark ,  1.03 and 1.09  ECU EURO currency, 
2000 US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig inot recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002  US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 % % in late 2001, re sulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135, inflation soared to 3 %, housing,real estate bubble (housing prices up 10 %) However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June lead to renewed  speculatation of Fed rate cut to  stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks and bond
Global currency futures  OSA simulation/forecasts , risk hedging
Asian  Inflation and short,  long term   interest rate Simulation 991116
China: Asian turmoil resulted  falling export and domestic consumer prices, export decline in  in January, The Asian turmoil  will delay  the result the last year March and June and recent  prime rate cut to 5.8 % and housing market stimulation package to raise the money supply growth rate to the 17, first quarter GNP  of 8.3 , second, third quarter 7.4 %  and  poor corporate earning outlook, state enterprise reform lead to massive layoff, Consumer  and stock investors confidence rebounded after interest rate cut and measures to raise
income for  unemployed and low income people through  50 billion RMB stimulus package. Recent tax on interest income may have near term negative impact on consumer to boost domestic demand, and investors confidence  
Hong Kong: Asian turmoil  resulted rising short term and long term interest rates to defend the HK dollar to stick to US Dollar. The 60 % slump in properties and 60 %stock prices and  falling export and domestic prices, resulted widening trade and current account deficit, which put further pressure on the HK dollar and interest rate. US  rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off HK interest and exchange rate, allowed HK to cut interest rate to precrisis level, lead to Henseng index rebound from 6200 to 18600 and   money supply growth doubled from 4 to 8 %( down from 97 year's 18 % peak to 4.4 % in 98  due to the slump in stocks and properties markets).  US 6 rate hike and 2000  US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002  ,Hong Kong follow US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 %   in late 2001,pulling US and Hong Kong out of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,   However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June drag Henseng f rom 15000 to 9500  lead to renewed  speculation of Fed rate cut to  stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks and bond and will drag Hong Kong into recession and Henseng into further correction 

Taiwan:  Asian turmoil resulted falling export and domestic prices, shrinking  trade  surplus, which put  pressure on the NT dollar and interest  rate. Last winter US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off interest and NT exchange rate,  (short term interest rate to 4. 5to  5%), The money supply growth already down from last year's 11 % peak to 7 % due to the slump in stocks and export  markets earlier  2001. Government 150 billion NT low interest housing loan and cut banking tax from 5 % to 3 % and US and Asian recovery  improved export and   corporate earning outlook  will  support consumer, stock investors confined- ce.  However Sept earthquake resulted production cutback and economic slowdown, money supply down from 10 % to 8 %, and falling interest rates. Which will rebound early next year, start of as 150 billion NT reconstruction projects 2000  US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturing in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002  , Taiwan follow US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 %   in late 2001,pulling US and Taiwan  out of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,  However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June , strong NT already hurt Taiwan export and falling prices profits drag Taiwan Index  from 6500 to 4500  lead to renewed   speculation of Fed rate cut to  stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 45 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the Taiwan stocks
Any Taiwan's rate cut will not help Taiwan stock either.
 2000  US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturing in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situation worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002  ,Hong Kong follow US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 %   in late 2001,pulling US and Hong Kong out of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,   However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old economic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June drag Henseng from 15000 to 9500  lead to renewed  speculation of Fed rate cut to  stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, resulted 54 trillion dollar wealth gain and housing, equities market bubbles , and further rate hikes to cool of the inflationary pressure, inflation slowdown

Asian turmoil, Inflation, short,  long Term  interest rate, trade impact on Asian Currency Simulation
June- Sept  1998 Tracking results: Our June 14 forecasts accurately predicted  China's RMB and HK dollar stay firm against falling Yen. and Taiwan's NT  dollar will be traded between 34 and 35. Japan's Yen will be traded between 130 and 148.
Oct-Dec 1998 - Jan-Feb 1999 Tracking results: Our Oct 4   forecasts accurately predicted  China's RMB and HK dollar stay firm against falling Yen. and Taiwan's NT  dollar will be traded between 32.5 and 33. Japan's Yen will be traded between 115 and 125.All the other Asian currency will stay firm
China:  Asian turmoil resulted  falling export and domestic consumer prices, export  growth down from - 1 %, Asian turmoil and heavy flood damage will delay the result of  March  and June prime rate cut  1 % and domestic  housing market stimulation package to raise the money supply growth rate to the 18 %(current ly below 15%) and the GNP 8.3 %, first quarter, 7.3 second, third quarter soaring trade and current account sur plus and foreign reserve (150 Billion) will support strong RMB,    8.3, dispite of China recent rate cut to boost the domestic demand  . 
Hong Kong: Asian turmoil resulted rising short term and long term interest rates to defend the HK dollar peg to US Dollar. The 70 % slump in properties and 60 % stock prices and  falling export and domestic prices, resulted widening trade and current account deficit, US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off HK dollar and cut rate to precrisis level ,  interest rate(short term ( 5.5 to 6 %)long term (9 to 10 %),HK rate will follow US rate hike
Taiwan : Asian turmoil in 1998 and US recession in 2001 resulted falling export and domestic prices, , Recent US rate cut of 0.75 % took the pressure off NT dollar, Taiwan export rebound, soaring trade surplus supporting NT (will be traded  between 33.5. and 33.9 )and interest rate (short term 4.5 to 5%), improved trade surplus support  strong NT Strong NT hurt export and cut into trade surplus, it already plunged from 32.2 to 34
Japan:  badly hurt by Asian turmoil, trillion bank   bad loan and domestic slump in stock and properties. The money supply already dip to 3.5 % from the peak of 13 % in 1990, the benefit of  230 billion tax cut and bank bailout start to realize. The interest rate is already down to 0.1 %, with second   quarter GNP return to7.1 %, Nikkei rebound 30 % lead to doubled money supply growth up to 5 %  growth and soaring trade surplus  will provide  support to  YEN,  recent economic stimulation package and  bank reform and US trade widening deficit lift the Yen to 102, in 2000
2000  US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002    US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 %   in late 2001,pulling US and Japan out of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to 115 from 135,   However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June drag  Nikkeif rom 12000 to 9300   However, strong YEN  will hurt export and cut into trade surplus and the strength of Yen  will be traded  115-121
India: Asian turmoil resulted falling export and domestic prices, high inflation at 15 % will push the interest rate higher to 10 % and put the pressure on India currency to 45, Although recent US rate cut of 0.75 % took  some pressure  off (will be traded  between 42.6 and 45)and interest rate(short term  8 to 10%),
EURO, EMU  and European currencies and Stock Markets OSA:
Tracking Result Nov-Dec. 1998
Dr Warren Huang was invited to speak to Rome's Post EURO Banking and Finance Industry Strategy on Nov. 27,(Sponsored by JP Morgan and Rome University) and to Stockholm Sweden on Dec 19, 1998.  He accurately predicted in his speech that the 11 European countries  joined the unified currency and single central bank, interest rate . The post union central banker already announ ced the union interest converge to  3 %. These 11 countries will have 6.4 trillion GNP, next only to US. with huge trade surplus and current account balance, They are supported by the big high talented low cost Eastern European manpower pools. and also benefited by the US economic expansion, recent restructuring and merger with US compe titors, with be replacing Asian as the super economic power in the near future. These Euro pean stock markets already attracted many global investors, after last Sept.  setback due to Russia crisis and Long Term Capital trouble , EURO will replace Yen as strong currency  11 stock markets will  rebound in 1999, continue to make new highs, the any   setback  due to the Russia, Brazil crisis will be good opportunites to accumulate for future appreciation.. 2000  US bubble burst, Nasdaq plunged 70 % drag US manufacturinig in to recession in 2001
and 911 made situtaion worse, oil prices plunged to 16, inflation down to 2 % resulted
2001-2002  EURO  follow US 11 rate cut to 40 year low , trillion dollar tax rebate boosted US consumer demand from 911 -1.8 % to 6 %   in late 2001,pulling US and EURO out of recession resulted double in oil prices from 16 to 28 in April 2002, trade deficit soared to 35 billion, US dollar plunged to  1.01 from 0.83,   However, weak dollar, corporate scandal drag ed overheated Dow, old ecoomic stocks for 25 % correction to 7500, Nasdaq to 1250, loss of 7.7 trillion dollar wealth cool off the consumer demand iin May and inflation to 1.6 % in May-June , strong EURO cut into EURO export, profit drag  EURO back to 0.95, and  stock for 35 % correction  speculatation of EURO and  Fed rate cut to  stimulate consumer demand, support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks and bond

EMU  European Central Bank money supply, iinterest rate, Asian Financial Crisis, currency exchange rate  Simulation 990506
June-Dec.  tracking results: Our June 18 and Oct. 4  forecasts accurately predicted UK overnight rate: 5.2-5.6 &, pound traded between 1.6-1.68.  falling German short term rate at 3.2 % , Mark traded between 1.66- 1.84, F. Franc traded between 5.7-6.1 S. Franc traded between 1.23-1.354, Italian lire 1650- 1690, EURO, ECU between 1,06 and 1.20
UK : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with   inflation at 3 % due to the expansionary money supply(reach upper limit of 11.2 %) pulling the short term rate down to 5 %, resulted labor shortage and soaring properties, stock prices and The UK 3.5 % inflation has pushed interest rate to 8.5 %  near term overnight rate (7.0-8.0%), money supply growth 9-10 %) UK followed  US 3 rate cuts  pull the pound plunge to 1.62   widening UK trade deficit will cutting into the strength of the pound    Pound will be in the range 1.52- 1.65, UK intention to Join EURO will speedup interest rate cuts to 3 % level , However, UK inflation due to soaring stock prices led Bank of England follow US raise interest rate TO 5.5 % ,to support the  pound.
German : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation, expansionary money supply of 5 %) pulling the  German and EURO overnight rate down to 2.5 %, The high German unemployed- met rate at 10.5 %, will leave room for German money supply grow Th and lower interests. However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to  EURO export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth 5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target. the expanding German trade surplus and US rate cut will support German Mark, recent overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike,  ECB rate hike will lead to German recent GNP Growth slowdown to 1.9 %, speculating,  it will be traded between 1.75 and 1.85,   weak Mark led to export and GNP rebound.
France : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation, expansionary money supply of 6 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3. %, The high France unemplyment rate at 10.5 %,  However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to  EURO export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.9 %, money supply growth to 5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target. will lead to  France GNP Growth slowdown  .
Swiss : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation,  The low unemplyment rate at 4.5 %, will and low money supply growth leave  little room for Swiss money supply growth and lower interests.  Recent EURO interest rate hike of 0.5% will push Swiss  near term overnight rate over 2 %, money supply growth 3.0 %  recent overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, .  S. Fr will be traded between 1.45 and 1.59
Italy: Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 2 % inflation, expansionary money supply of 10 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3.5 %, The high  unemplyment rate at 11.5 %, However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to  EURO export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth 5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target.  money supply growth 5 %the expanding Italy trade surplus and US rate cut will support Italian Lira,  recent overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, while EURO recent GNP Growth slowdown ,  Lira, it will be traded between 1750-1800
Sweden : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with only 1 % inflation, expansionary money supply of 3 %) pulling the overnight rate down to 3 %, The low unemplyment rate at 6 %  low money supply growth leave  room for Sweden money supply growth and lower interests.   money supply growth  3.5-  4..5 %), recent overheated US economy calling for interest rate hike, However, soaring oil prices, Asian recovery lead to  EURO export boost resulted inflation soared from 0.7 % to 1.2 %, money supply growth 5.9 % pushed ECB raised interbank rate to 3 % to meet 2 % inflation target and slowdown  EURO and Sweden recent GNP Growth  S. Kronor will be traded 7.95-8.1
Emerging Markets Financial Crisis   and Recovery Simulation
Russia Crisis  : Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with 8 % inflation, Tight money supply to support the Rupee due to Asian Turmoil resulted  declining trade and current account surplus.  forced the interest rate tripled to 150 %.  1998 Sept.  announcement of to float the Ruble to 9.5 lead to credit defaultt and Yeltin fired prime minister resulted Ruble broke 9.5 to   20 and stock market slump and rebound. The the interest rate raised to 200 % stabilized the ruble to 9.5 after the new prime minister. However recent announcement of increase money supply and drop the interest rate to  25%, lead to Ruble  drop to 25.  recent US interest rate cut took some pressure off Russia interest rate and Ruble rate . Ruble will be traded   around 23-25
However, The soaring oil prices, falling Ruble boosted Russian export and trade surplus, stock market rebound lead Russia out of recession.
South American Financial Crisis, Recovery  Simulation 991116: 
Brazil : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian, Russia  turmoil, resulted export declined and excessive  government spending resulted trade and current account deficit (43 billion dollars), last year 41 billion IMF rescue can not improve it's global competitiveness and cut deficit, resulted risks in  failing to fulfill IMF commit- met  lead to recent float real to 1.53  and plunge to 2.7  depreciation and rising interest rate raised to 37.5 is insufficnet to keep Real below 2.0,  The Asian recovery, strong US demand lead to Brazil agricultural products prices and export rebound (coffee)  Falling interest rate and soaring stock prices took   Brazil out of  recession   Real  will be traded between 1.8 and 2.0,  interest rate  will be  20 %  to support the Real . Real   currency. is  continue under pressure,  until significant improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,   
Recent  US and European interest rate hike will slowdown  demand have partially offseting the Asian recovery
Mexico : Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian , Russia and Brazil turmoil   resulted properties and stock prices and export slump. the widening trade and current account deficit took peso depreciate ion from  7.5  to  10.6 . It will be under pressure, raising interest rate from 15 % to 36 %  stabilized  the peso   around 11, Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown.  Mexico stock index   will be traded between  5000  and 6000
Argentina :Hurt by ASEAN and  Asian, Russia , Brazil turmoil and US, EURO, Asian   recession resulted export decline , 132 billion default due to it's currency peg to the dollar( warned by Dr. Warren Haung at 1999 EUropean Financial Management conference,, in Barcelona, Spain. The Argintinal currency is foreced to float from 1.0  to 2.3, to boost export  will follow Brazil Real to 2.5   significant improvement in trade and account deficit turning into surplus,  due to global recession. Fortunately,  the US and European demand have partially offseting the Asian slowdown. The Argentine stock slump due to rising interest rate,   will be trade between 400 and 500.

Key Benefits:                      

• Billions  dollars interest rates, currency exchange profits can be generated while risks/loss minimized with these   reliable global interest rate, inflation rate , currency exchange rates simulation. It  will  help the central bankers money supply and the corporate capital expenditure decisions to control inflation and in global asset allocation

• Also help investors in investment timing in global investing.

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