Proactive Structural financial and
commodities futures, derivatives,
housing markets
asset prices simulation for strategic investment and risks early warning
visit
global proactive structural strategic financial modeling research and
applications centers
daily
real time tracking global financial market prices applications on www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Warren
Huang OSA Intl Operations Analysis
website
www.osawh.com
/ www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com
San Francisco, Ca. , USA,
wh3928@yahoo.com /
osah@sina.com
Fenglan Zhang
Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,
Zhejiang, China
Abstract
This paper
demonstrated senior author Huang’s 30 years pioneering Wall
Street and China, global financial markets research innovation in the development, implementation of proactive
structural simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact
on China/US macroeconomic control, daily interest rates, commodities,
currency, stock indices
futures derivatives
, housing markets prices mechanism, behavior, for strategic investment, risk
management.
He extended moon landing guidance , control in his Ph.D
thesis, on “ Real Time Nonlinear Kalman Filtering and
Control with Applications to Chemical Reactors Control “ and
Financial Econometrics. Thousands proactive structural dynamic
real time macroeconomic
control, financial
market asset prices OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis )
neural
net expert systems models and exponential GARCH , structural VAR ( Vector
Auto-Regression ) time series models
tracking, forecast years, months ahead of last 20 years China/global central banks monetary policy, interest
rates,
currency, fixed investment, impact on daily global
commodity, interest rates,housing prices and
stock ,indices futures, derivatives prices bubbles,mortgage
defaults and
20 industrial sectors index component stocks and listed stocks earning, stock markets pricing mechanism and consumers, investors sentiment, confidence behavior for global
and China Shanghai, Shenzhen A
300 stock indices futures
stocks, Taiwan,
US Dow Jones, NASDAQ,
S&P Hong Kong Hang Sang , Tokyo Nikkei indices
and component stocks and Chicago commodities futures and financial options,
derivatives prices, all with maximum error
below 3 %, average error 1.5 % and correlation constants above 0.95,
These simulators have been applied to thousands lectures to China 15 cities,
Taipei, San Francisco
30 million TV, radio institutional
fund manager, private investors and hundreds multinational oil,
banking, finance QFII /QDII companies thousands CEO, senior executives since
1994
These real time expert systems
based multivariate nonlinear
regression asset prices supporting proactive, structural dynamic
Capital Markets Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators tracking/forecasts ( correlation constant greater than 0.95,
average error below 1.5 %) month
ahead the what, how, why and , timing the emerging bull/bear market trend.
These models replacing current 30 year old probabilistic, statistical CAPM and
current oversimplified stock
indices futures static theoretic price models misguided market price positive
correlated to interest rates ,(monotonic increase with interest rates) and
return, models ,avoided trillion dollars loss due to earning decline and stocks
price plunge in rising interest rates, speculation, chasing over the business,
economic news
He conducted teaching and research in industrial
economics, global strategic management, Process Simulation,
Control at
National Taiwan, Tsinghua and Tunghai University , trained thousand senior, graduate
students tracking , forecasts 100 countries macro economics, currencies, 20
industrial sectors 5000 products prices mechanism and keynote
speaker for Peking, Tsinghua , Zhejiang, Fudan, Shanghai Finance
and Economic University,
Zhejiang financial engineering association
on economic management, banking, finance, capital markets reform, international finance,
financial engineering innovation,
commercial, investment banking Basel II risks
management
While Zhang has been trained to integrating proactive structural China assets
(stocks, bond, commodities futures, derivatives pricing mechanism OSA into new
generation CPA / CFA training in financial, derivatives accounting , corporate
scandals and financial crisis asset bubbles bursts resulted markets risks early
warning innovation
Huang also offered thousands keynote lectures, workshops
to China global QFII/QDII ,
multinationals and China nationwide hundreds , securities
company CEO, fund managers asset allocation and risk management during China since 1994-96
runaway inflation
accurately predicted Shanghai A index traded 600- 800 during and again to 2000
Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing QFII Nov, 2003 that China macro economic control lead
to Shanghai A plunged from 1800 to 1000 during 2003-2005 bear market, and
predicted to Beijin Asian Business Forum China Oil
Markets global oils, QFII CEO , Nov. 2005 that China A shares bull market rally from
1000 in capital market reform, selling of state owned shares early 2006 and
recommended buy May 2006 oil, energy futures, options, oil price futures will
rebound from 50 to 78 in summer 2006, made 1000 % profits.
He also predicted
to China
Peoples Bank central bank governors conference on monetary policy for
sustainable growth, 1999 that Shanghai A entering bull market rally from 1000 to 2200.
4 millions global central banks, banking, finance, multinationals
executives visited his www.osawh.com since 1998, tracking global financial, banking crisis cycles
behavior finance in root causes, outburst, spread, recovery of global
financial crisis, interest rates hikes resulted global stock indices housing prices bubble burst, crash, crisis ,real time daily price
movements.
Keyword: Capital Markets
Operations Simulations Analysis proactive structural CAPM
stock indices currency interest rates , commodities derivatives
pricing CFA/CPA training risk management
Presented
to FERM2007 ( International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference ),June 11-12,