Chinese (中文)
Top Down Proactive Structural
Strategic Trillion Dollars China/Global ( US, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Asian, EURO)Housing, Equities, Bond,
Commodities,Oil, Metals, Currency Futures , Derivatives Multiclass Asset Pricing
and Investors sentiment simulation for Optimal Long-Short Strategy Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging
Workshops
and
Proactive structural dynamic simulation of VaR (maximum loss in
all transaction history)
Minimize Supply Chain feedstock, fuel
cost , and Trillion dollar MBS, CDO, ABS,
CDS equities,commodity
investment loss and trillion dollar profit gain in market downturn and future
rebound in economic recovery in asset bubble burst.
Integrating Macro-financial, industrial Fundamentals Pricing Mechanism Analysis into Quantitative Financial
market trading Simulation
Models predicted years, month
ahead of the emerging market trend of global ( US, China, Taiwan,Asian, EURO ) ,developed, emerging economy,
housing, commodities, equities, bond multiclass asset prices bubbles boom and bust
cycles, Interest rate, inflation,
currency , oil, financial, housing mortgage default, IT sectors, indexing component
stocks , ETF maximize alternatives investment hedge fund risk adjusted return, prices simulation,
asset allocation ,asset bubbles burst systemic risks
early warning strategy , avoided trillion dollar market loss, while capitalize
the emerging market recovery trend.
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Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士)accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS, Schroeders, JPM and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump continue into summer 2009 drag economy into 1980 style double dip inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 50-70 % , Dow Jones test 7000, NASDAQ testing 1250, S&P test 700 with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70-90 %, dollar making to new low, oil price and gas , commodity prices soared to 147, and follow stocks bubble burst plunge 50- 70 %, Bear Stearn, Lehman, Merrill hundreds billion dollar MBS and emerging market, alternatives investment hedge fund loss despite Fed rate cuts, bail out . He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700- 2000 till 2009. These proactive structural simulators quantify the uncertain, unknown future through tracking last 30 year China/US/Taiwan ,global monetary, economic fiscal, bailout, tax cuts, stimulus, infrastructure policy impact on macro economy, daily financial, 20 industrial economic sectors demand, asset and derivatives price mechanism in housing, credit, financial crisis, recession. It avoided trillion dollar loss and while profiting trillion dollar recession hedge. It will continue provide investors profiting from recession recovery in 2009, beyond while hedge against risks in uncertainty future.
China Derivatives, Summit Risks
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website: www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
Strategic PGFCR (Proactive
Global
Financial
Crisis,
Recession
Operations Simulation)
Complete Coverage of last 30 years Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis,
Recession Impact
(
presented to China Peoples Bank, 30 global
central banks governors, China oil markets, strategic wealth management ,
risk management confernces masterclass workshop since 1999), offered
thousands TV, radio and workshops lectures to 30 millions China, US,
Taiwan HNW, institutional invstrors since 1994.
He patented pioneering demand side oil, commodities pricing mechanism on US Oil
& Gas Journal, Hydrocarbon processing 1983 and wrote 30 articles on
Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced
Control Insformation Systems Handbook 1993- 2005 circulated million copies to 80
countries multinationals oil and downstream companies executives
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20
years Integrating
Fundamentals Analysis into Quantitative Simulation Models for
US, BRIC
Energy, Currency,Banking, Finance Mortgage Defaults credit, Crisis,
Macro-economic boom and bust recession cycle, unemplyment targeting,
Monetary interest rate policy Impact on global oil, banking
mortgage rate, IT and housing demand, pricing, Equities Prices Bubbles,,
Mortgage Loan Credit Rating, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, ABS, MBS,
CDO,CDS Bond
Spread in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging
Hong Kong, Beijin, Shanghai, Taipei in-house
workshops
by reservation at your convenient time at yuor office wh3928@yahoo.com
conducted by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management
OSA
Preparing for Global macroeconomic control, rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default credit, financial, Crisis Recession Early Warning and Tracking recovery opportunties, progress in rate cuts, bail out, tax cuts and domestic infrastructural stimulus programs
Comment to Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 24 2008 11:26AM
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat February 8, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Adding big high tech to Russel 1000does not necessarily
help its performance especially in economic downturn, with housing slump
and plunging consumer sentiment continue into summer. As I warned on this
blog last Sept. that banking, finance will face 70 % correction, and
consumer IT stock will be facing 50 % correction.
Recent rebound in consumer stocks reacting to economic stimulus generated
low priced ( shrinking profit margin )sales.will soon be over.
It will be another bear market rally ( 3 day)to speculate on new Russel.
details on
www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm
Comment by - June 5, 2008 at
2:21
pm
Thousands proactive structural dynamic China/Global Commodity, Financial , Derivatives Prices Mechanism Operations Simulation Simulation Analysis (OSA) Forecasts, Strategic Risks Hedging for Hedge Fund Optimal Long Short LeverageStrategy predicted multiclass asset price bubbles mechanism, profit trillion dollars from market crash by identify month ahead of 2007- 2009 global mortgage financial crisis, recession impact on economy recession , interest rate, currency, equities, housing, commodities asset price cycle boom, bust, recession, bear/bull market trends avoided 50 trillion dollars global housing, equities, bond, CDS , MBS, commodities market loss due to current probability, statistical based VaR position risks control
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pmProactive commodities futures, derivatives prices OSA Proactive financial futures, derivatives prices OSA
By two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism pioneer Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession, soaring bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700 rebound to 3200 in 2009 overheated in the first half due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 25 %, fixed investment from 22 to 33 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 72 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through 2009.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious) speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing L- shape slow recession recovery
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rates, currency, commodities, equities, bond, CDS spread housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm