Welcome to  Strategic Basel II Operational  Risks Monitoring, Predictive Control, Profit Optimization  for  Basel II 3 pillars risks control( workshop )
Global Economy, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Simulation, Bubbles Early Warning

Basel II Operational Risks Operations Simulation Analysis( OSA)
        Process Systems integration, simulation, predictive control:
 Welcome  to the World of Asset Prices Models Forecast for Global  Economic, Financial, Banking Crisis, Bubble Burst Recovery, Strategic Base II Market, Credit, Operational, interest rate, business cycles, liquidity Risks ,  Early -Warning , Control, Profit Optimization

 Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop

Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf   China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  :
Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic quantitative models simulators tracking, forecasts controlling global macro economy, business cycles and daily  capital market interest rates, currency, asset prices Dr. Warren Huang has develop, implemented thousands structural, dynamic causes and effect, response simulators tracking, simulate, forecast, accurately predicted  months ahead monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economic, business cycles,  the root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global macroeconomic control, daily capital market asset prices,  asset allocation, interest rates, business cycles, liquidity, market, credit, operational risk control, avoided trillion dollar market loss,  minimize risk associated capital requirement,  financial accounting auditing for entire portfolio, transaction risks and profit control full transparency, support Basel II three pillars of risks management , He offered thousands investment strategy and risk management for thousands US, Taiwan, China, Asian central banks, banking, securities, SOE, SME companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, trade, risks managers and 30 million China, Taiwan, US 15 cities  TV, radio banking, finance, executives, investors tracking daily stocks , currency, bond commodities prices , investment strategy, risks control,  invited to speak to ECB, FRB, UK, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Asian 24 global central banks governors, IMF, BIS  financial risks management, econometric, wealth management conferences to speak on "Asset Prices Simulation, forecasts, early warning  for last 20 years Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery,  economic, business cycles, interest, currency , liquidity , Market, Credit, Operational Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble   since 1998, published 20 English articles on US Oils & Gas Journals and US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2003 , for 1600 multinationals from  78 countries, tracking ,simulate, forecast market forces demand, prices mechanism, market, credit, operational risks for oil, petrochemicals, upstream/ downstream, end users 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products : www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html , and thousands Chinese articles for China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, economic, finance, trade journals supporting  15 cities, TV, radio station banking, finance, fund managers, investors  global asset allocation,  risks and profit control optimization
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
Dr. Warren Huang pioneering works in risks systems identification, monitoring, simulation predictive risks control, directed hundreds cost, quality, risks, market shares performance oriented corporate profits and risks strategic, and execution OSA teams, develop, implement information knowledge based thousands structural, dynamic, deterministic simulators provide global financial markets  Operations Simulation Analysis /Forecasts of global market economy market major forces impact on global debt, currency, equities, commodity, energy , futures, derivatives prices mechanism, credit defaults , cost, financial accounting systems tracking, simulation, bubbles, scandals early warning integrating  market and credit risks simulation, predictive risk systems control risks  business process into daily core business operations reporting board members through monthly strategic business units (CEO, CFO, VP) operation profit review session directed by Dr. Huang.

A Single Simulation model  tells you 20 years story about the causes, effect, response of operations risks, disaster, financial crisis resulted loss and early warning for predictive operational, credit, market risks control, minimize Basel II capital requirement, while maximize sustainable profit through simulation of global central banks monetary policy, external (oil prices, currency) shocks impact on financial markets interest rate, currency, stocks, bond, commodity, and it's derivatives prices turbulence resulted huge trading loss (Baring, LTCM ,and corporate scandals of ENRON, WCOM) currency crisis resulted stock market plunge and banking, country default, corporate credit default, nonperformance loan) risks and forecasts one month ahead, have been presented to 50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance , risk management, restructuring conferences
These structural, deterministic, forward-looking dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics tracking accurately US, European, ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America, Mexico energy, currency, financial and banking crisis, country default credit risks, one month ahead since 1980 with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( all without statistics probability inputs in existing VaR models )

Goal : Early warning, prevent, minimize, avoided trillion market  loss and Basel II  risk capital requirement due to   global government, central banks, macro economic, monetary policy, oil price, currency impact on daily financial markets interest rate, currency, commodity, stocks, bond prices turbulence resulted credit  loss (default, nonperformance loan), operations, liquidity risks, capitalize on the  trillion dollar investment opportunities during the crisis  integrating and minimize Basel II  market  and credit risks loss, capital requirement  
Mission: Tracking , simulating the causes, onset, spread, and prevention of financial money, currency, stock, bond, commodity, financial derivatives markets risks in each industry, corporate products line, portfolio, support, control banking, finance, corporate daily markets trading operations risks, provide dynamic, forward looking market prices simulation, support banking, finance industry minimize  Basel II risks loss capital requirement supervision, regulation.

Performance Tracking: Goal, mission, performance oriented markets Risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up markets Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, currency shocks impact on daily global

Corporate financial accounting tracking, simulation, bubbles , early  warning supporting Sarbanes, Oxley corporate scandals in Enron, Guanxia and numerous others.
Credits Risks Simulation, default early  warning : tracking, simulate early warning of
consumer, business loan , credit defaults, credit limits, avoided Baring default on Nikkei derivatives trading

Market risks simulation: Tracking, simulate, months ahead early warning monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economy and daily capital markets asset prices, avoided Baring default on Nikkei derivatives trading

Money Markets interest rate risks: Short term, long term interest rate, bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market: Interest rate spread, trade deficit impact on global currency simulation
Daily global interest rates, currency futures simulation
Commodity, energy  futures, derivatives: Demand, Supply, currency impact on energy, feedgrains, food, metals cotton, lumber futures prices simulations
Daily global commody futures, derivatives simulation
Corporate earning and stocks, bond prices: corporate costs, prices, inventory and merger/acquisition profit margins , IPO and stock prices simulation
Daily global stock index futures, corproate earning, stocks and IPO prices simulation

Commodity and financial derivatives prices hedging Simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, stocks, bond, commodity prices integrated into Balck-Schole formulas for call/putt option hedging risks control.

Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic procurement, investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN government, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years crisis
Services:  book your 3 day on the job training  workshop  , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams
All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

Website : www.osawh.com email:  wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer, 

          www.osawh.com /黃華南博士版權所有 Copyright  2004 Dr.Warren Huang