Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals futures, Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged 50 %-70 % into 2002 recession low , oil price plunged 70 % from 147 to 46，gas from 15 to 6.5, Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）   ,
 
Repeating last April  2008 tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China economic stimulus package  and US 2009 tax rebate, 2 billion banking, finance bail out ,led to 50 % gain in stock prices resulted wealth push oil to 60- 75 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200  new high 2009  peaking out in June-July-Aug. Sept., oil,    will drop to 55- 69 , Gasoline to 140- 180  , fuel oil to 150- 190 , Natural gas to 2.4 to 4.0 after Aug summer demand, peaking out during Sept- Nov off season  and back to 70- 82 fuel oil rebound to 190- 240, gasoline to 180-200, natural gas to 3.50- 5.0  in 2009 year end, early spring 2010 cold  winter swing  peak demand  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering, Proactive Structural Oil, Energy Price mechanism Simulation Forecast Real time  Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China Oil, Natural Gas  Market Price  market forces mechanism tracking, forecast, risk hedging
Gold price follow oil price rebound  to 1000-1050  in 2 Q-3 Q 2009, as oil price rebound from 50- 75 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, manufacturing  rebound to clunker program and and housing rebound to first time home buyer tax credit  in Sept.  and gold price will challenge 1100 - 1250 as oil price soared to 80 by the end of 2009, as US job creation go into full steam However,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, deflationary pressure remain ,   falling PPI in China, US, in 2009 will depress any oil and gold price rally. even weakness in dollar will not be sufficient to push oil price above 80, gold price above 1250 in 2009 final  quarter. Gold prices have to test 900- 1000 correction due to deflationary pressure in slow recession recovery
Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100 due to decline in tax rebate demand impact
and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax rebate in  July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession
Dr. Warren Huang pioneered Nobel idea on US Oil & Gas Journal, Hydrocarbon Processing, Houston, Texas, March 1983 , published millions copies to 80 countries, 2000 multinational oil companies and 30 years implementation of  proactive structural global oil, energy downstream , commodities prices bubble price mechanism decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in trillion dollar investment risk early warning and billion dollar supply chain cost reduction  Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy   in  Macro Economic Growth, Prices Stability and Housing, energy Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  mechanism   predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial , Energy Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)
                        Global Credit, financial crisis, recession, monetary, economic stimulus impact on Global energy future, derivatives prices
Do not miss these   OSA Capitalized  last 30 years Trillion Dollar Investment Opportunities, Risks Early Warning and achieve billions dollar supply chain cost reduction by proactive structural  Monetary, Economic, Stimulus , Fiscal Bailout, Global credit, financial Crisis, Recession  OSA
: Proactive Structural Asset Prices Dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of Asset Prices  Mechanism and  Causes

Proactive Structural Analysis of Financial Crisis event in India: Financial Crisis, Asset Pricing, Risks Valuation, and Early Warning 4 Days workshops in India Delhi and Mumbai
Oct. 21- 24, 2009 for investment consultants, banking, finance, multinational oil, downstream , IT manufacturing  value chain senior executives by Dr. Warren Huang

Oil, upstream/downstream billion dollar supply chain cost reduction and  value chain optimization applied to 80 countries multinationals
Billion dollars supply chain cost reduction proactive, structural oil, gas pricing, strategic long-short, supply chain strategic workshops
 
Fed's 425 points rate cuts drag dollar weaker, trillions dollar cash injection, bailout  and China 568 billion economic stimulus package,  support  oil  with cold weather, summer demand weak dollar price  rebound
    Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation :Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100 due to decline in tax rebate demand impact and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax rebate in  July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession 

 Oil price stay above 60  near memorial day, Improved May Jobless   to 345000  and jobless claim to 601000, soaring June (33 %) foreclosure rate but   existing housing  sale rebound  boost July  oil, fuel, and gasoline futures and cash price peaking out 65 -72 in   July  heading back to 60-65  after July , repeating last year tax rebate peaking out at  146  in July 2008 , drag by global deep economic recession, with plunging consumer, business demand,  strong dollar  

Fed's 552 points rate cuts drag dollar weaker, trillions dollar cash injection, bailout  and China 568 billion economic stimulus package, and Obama 775 billion dollar stimulus plan job creation and tax rebate program, OPEC 4 million barrel production cuts support  oil  with cold weather, weak dollar price  rebound   to 35- 60  in 2008-09 winter peaking and
US/Global financial crisis and recession cut oil demand and  strong dollar drag oil price to 30- 35 , cold weather, weakness in dollar, speculation in stimulus plan drive oil back to 40-50  in winter 2009 ,  natural gas  4.5- 8 due to economic recession  and winter demand , however,  oil price will rebound to 50- 70 in the second half of 2009 as US/China economic stimulus plan go to full steam operation  
Integrated Proactive Structural Investment-Supply Chain Logistics for Oil, Gas, and downstream petrochemical, plastics, fibers strategic management systems saved billion dollar in procurement, inventory, supply cost and trillion dollar in distress, toxic asset investment since 1980 for thousands multinational from 80 countries

               Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial , energy, commodity future, derivatives market prices  outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China FX, Oil, Commodity, Metals Futures, Derivatives Prices, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com

Proactive Structural PGFCR:
   Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
                 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives
and
     China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
                       Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
             China/US 2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets Outlook,  Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009

Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis , capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets
　

 US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 33, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 33 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in $Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact on business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing price slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 40 ，Gas oil from1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Continued SEC restriction on naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I predicted on this blog that we are half way to housing, stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing, financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 11600 this morning plunged to 11300.
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 before labor day due to rebate check support d summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm

Full Day  Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China oil  , gas, fuel, energy  market price forecast , long - short strategy , ETF asset allocation workshop
 Full Day Proactive Strategic Real Time Oil Downstream commodity market price forecasts and Supply chain cost reduction workshops  

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2008 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000- 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % testing 2000-2200 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low,   commodity prices doubled, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 110 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 40 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 147. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled 

Do not miss on book Dr. Warren Huang 2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops

Dr./Prof.  Warren Huang    黃華南  博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy will be offering  
  5 Day Global Oil, Metal, Agricultural Commodity Markets Prices forecast adn Structural Trade Finance SCF Supply and Value Chain Optimization , Basell Risks Management Masterclass workshop,                               in-house at your office at your convenient time 

 Worshop Goal:  structured to provide the latest proactive  strategic decision tool for global import/export and  real time daily commodity, raw material  trading, capitalize  on the emerging NY, Chicago, China energy, metal, feed grain commodity markets pricing , real time trading strategy and Basel II financing credit default, markets price, operational risks early warning management maximize value chain profit at minimum risks
Workshop Mission: •Provide  proactive structural China/global  trade and commodity markets, finance price mechanism, analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,  metals, feed grain price bull/bear market trend, risks trend   achieve sustainable profit , while minimize risks• Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity trade financing to minimize supply chain costs, maximize value chain profits website  www.osawh.com   email   osawhh@sina.com  /     wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global Proactive Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and Real Time Commodity Pricing,  Finance Basel II  Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic Restructure, Reengineering Management for WTO multilateral, bilateral trade impact analysis and global competitive pricing and market shares value chain optimization, risks management  WTO trade negotiation strategy, 
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Aug21, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil above 120 
Based on my 30 years demand side oil price simulation , oil price is very much depend on global consumer, business seasonal demand on gasoline fuel and downstream 5000 products,oil price plunge to 112 is extremely oversold before labor day holiday travel peak, giving US current slowdown while global travel and housing, auto demand still at their peak.
therefore, oil price will definitely rebound to 130 before labor day on gasoline inventory reduction.It will be traded side way between 105- 120 in Sept- Nov. off peak season demand. and rebound to 125 in winter demand and US economic entering  recession. details on www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.coom/commody.html

Comment  by Warren Huang -Yahoo Finance Wall Street Journal Market Beat  July 18, 2008  1602pm

My demand side oil price simulation tracking last 25 year daily oil price since 1980 ( patented published on US Oil & Gas Journal Journal 1983 Itpredicte since last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market beat and energy blog that excessive rate cut drag dollar lower and economic rebate check driving up summer gasoline peak demand push oil price to 145 on July 4, ( while most analyst speculate oil price will go to 150- 200 , I insisted oil price stay below 146 ) and consolidate into 120- 146 after July till labor day after rebate check is about to run out and plunge into 105- 125 after labor day till early Nov. off peak season,  And rebound tro 110- 135 in winter heating oil peak demand season Nov. Feb 2009
Oil and commodity price bubble will burst entering bear market correction oil price stay below 100 ) only we facing recession late this year-to early next year. after Fed rate hike,
Any economic stimulus to support the housing markets and rebate check to boost consumer, business demand will be used by market speculators to drive oil back to 130- 145.
detail on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat  June  29, 2008  1202pm and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1  

and this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer Dr. Warren  Huang
Millions of global /China management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007  and  Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managersthat US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US and global stock markets bear market correction , oil go to 120-145, despite Fed  rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2750-3000  till summer 2008
Dr. Warren Huang  was  risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer
Dr. Huang recommended to Phillips Petroleum CEO, Merrill Lynch, HSBC��Mobil, Exxon, Aramco VP on Nov 2005  China oil market conference, Beijing, to invest 2006 Jan and  July oil, energy futures  and metals call option, he predicted oil prices go to 69 in Jan and 78 in Aug 2006, and gasoline, heating oil, metal derivatives investments up more than 1000 %
Do  not miss  Dr. Huang  your in-house 2008 strategic oil, commodities, metals, financial futures,derivatives  prices forecast, risks hedging and ETF asset allocation investment strategy , hedging strategy workshops   in Taipei, Shanghai
2008 年中美宏觀產業調控對利率匯率股指能源金屬期貨上市公司股價 及衍生工具價格預測投資避險策略五日研討會 舊金山台北上海  
 Days                     Title
===========================================================================================
1    China/US monetary policy, macroeconomic control, interest rates, bond futures, derivatives prices, risk hedging
2     China/US interest rates, trade balance impact on global currency futures, derivatives prices , risk hedging
3     China/US interest rates, monetary policy, currency impact on global stock indices futures, derivatives prices ,   ETF asset allocation,  risk hedging
4     China/US monetary policy, currency impact on global oil, commodities  futures, derivatives prices,  ETF asset allocation,  risk hedging
5.  Proactive futures, derivatives pricing simulation maximize return and corporate scandals early warning

Reserve  wh3928@yahoo.com    

Proactive Structural  Commodity, Financial Futures, Derivatives Price Simulation Maximize Corporate Performance and Tracking Governance  Scandals Cycles  and Early Warning  
Global Strategic Management     OSA  forecasts, mission control  tracking/forecast monetary, economic, fiscal policy 
OSA impact on oil, gas upstream/downstream demand, prices market forces mechanism, early warning for energy crisis,  saved billions supply chain cost, making billion dollar inventory profit, avoided trillion dollar  market loss  
 www.osawh.com About OSA  Products &Services Nobel Prize dream workshops  VIP/Corporate membership 
 
Don't Miss This lectures opportunities in China Oils Industries 2008 forecasts and   strategic corporate governance, enterprises risk management  in your in-house workshops He has offered thousands such workshops  for millions China/Global oil upstream/downstream, banking, finance,  CEO ,CFO, board members, auditing and management teams, share holders ,investment, supply chain senior executives  proactive decision analysis training provide the latest forecast of global/China oil upstream/downstream future, derivative prices, investment strategy.
"Proactive Strategic Corporate Governance and Enterprise Risk Management"  
 * Proactive structural models tracking, simulation forecast for  China/global oil, gas upstream/downstream futures, derivatives prices mechanism,  cost, financial, derivatives accounting.
* Proactive structural models tracking  daily corporate operations and governance performance ,scandals risks early warning and training board members, management team, auditing teams meeting Sarbanes- Oxley compliances
* Global strategic investment, joint ventures, M/A,  supply chain, Basel  II  global financial, energy  crisis, credit, market risks simulation, early warning, 
* Profit, market share, risks as goal, mission, performance  oriented strategic governance, risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) team( CEO, CFO, board) and execution teams( managers) maximize corporate operations and governance transparency performances.
* Case studies: US Mobil, Enron, Taiwan Chinese, China Aviation Oils

Dr. Warren Huang     BIO Dr. Huang has 30 years experience in  development, implementation  of proactive strategic structural simulators tracking for oil exploration, refining,, downstream process, production R&D innovation, venture capital investment, supply chain strategy for 
 Mobil, Phillips Petroleum,  SINOPEC , Asian Consulting.   He predicted  last 20 years emerging market trend of global  oil, gas upstream/downstream futures,
derivatives , listed stock prices,  financial, energy crisis, corporate  scandals early warning for investment, supply  chain, marketing strategy for multinationals, SOE
board members, executives training . He spoke to global central banks governors, risk management conferences wrote 35 articles for US  Oil & Gas Journal,
Hydrocarbon Processing , Advanced Process  Control , Information System Handbook 1991-2005. Millions global executives visited his website www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html .> reserve your 2006 forecast in-house workshop  your office : osawhh@yahoo.com.cn/   wh3928@yahoo.com

You missed Nov. 18 2005  and Feb 2005 Dr. Warren Huang  Beijing conference/workshop on China/global coal, energy , petrochemicals, freight, power industry demand, prices, investment risks forecast.  He accurately predicted to Phillips Petroleum president, Merrill Lynch and HSBC VP, 70 global banking, oil CEO, executives that global oil prices rebound from Feb 40  and  65 , gas prices from 6 to 15 in summer 2005 and to 69 in Jan,. 2006 and 82 in summer, 2006
 Special announcement: As of March   2005, all  www.osawh.com  proactive structural  global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html  for global oil, gas futures through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update,
 Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that oil prices will soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006, soaring US inflation  will forcel raise rates throughout  summer 2006., Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %    gasoline futures to 265,  metals , commodity continue making new high , drive  CPI to 4.3 % in March and  higher in the month ahead. US  Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing correction ahead. 
Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang  share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25,Nov. 18 , 2005
based on Dr. Huang 30 year oil market market forces simulation tracing accurately daily prices movement since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, Greenspan only right about rising price cut demand, but forgot the  prime demand market forces from 49 trillion wealth effect out of housing, equities bubbles and weak dollar continue driving energy demand from construction metal, cement plastics 20 industrial sectors 5000 products etc beside just gasoline, heating oils.
Soaring Feb consumer spending, manufacturing demand definitely push oil price above 60, despite sufficient crude oil inventory, ( can easily consumed in the coming peak gasoline demand season ahead
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices , profit margin, stock prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy  Basel II risks management, early warning systems  workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@sina.com
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:

30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.

China, US rate hike , soaring oil prices Simulation, Forecasts and  it's Impact on upstream/ downstream demand, Prices, Profits Stock Prices, investment strategy, risks hedging Simulation/Forecasts workshops

20 yrs daily global  market tracking  Capital Market  Investment Banking   e-Business   e-Government  Monetary Policy Asset Bubble  China/Global Derivatives Hedging   Biotech/Healthcare  EMBA/CEO  CIO/CKO  Basel II Risk control  Competitive Pricing Strategy  
The only and most reliable proactive structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences

2005 first half prices simulation/forecasts:
Soaring China demand and rebound in US consumer demand in the summer  peak gasoline demand , winter heating oil  demand and global  economic recovery and tight refinery capacity will support oil prices. , despite China recent 0.27 % rate hike,  W. Tex LT ready for 50- 59  as summer gasoline demand push gasoline prices above165, heating oil will be soared to 168 in peak  winter demand, speculating on low inventory,  refinery shut down, ) Naphtha, gas oil prices will follow crude oils.   Natural gas also rebound 6.8- 9.6   due to US   tight capacity.
our new website www.osaglobalstrategeicmanagement.com/oilgas.html  will provide regular oil, downstream products prices  and corporate stock, ADR shares investment strategy update and global oil ADR investment workshop  latest forecasts can be find from our workshops. www.osawh.com/ibcworks.html  

Name                         Asian                         US                    EURO
crude oil                  65 -80 Arab LT)     65- 83 W.Tex)    65- 85(Brent)
Natural Gas               6.0- 9.4                      5- 6.5.0               3.5- 6.00
Naphtha                    600-800-               600-690                700-880
Gas oil                       460-520                550-655              500- 600
Fuel Oil                    165- 195                 175-  216 (c/gal)     155- 160
Mogas 97                  588-670                 166-   210  (c/gal)      59-  78
LPG ethane              580- 690                    99- 105                 95- 119
Propane                   400- 450                 1.3- 1.50                1.7- 1.90
Butane                     390- 433                  1.05- 1.34              95- 104
Ethylene spot   US$ 1900-1200               980 - 1100            900-1220
Propylene                  1150 1220.             1060-1210              1150-1220
Benzene                     830- 1050                910- 1080              858- 900
Butadiene                  1490- 1460             1440- 1580             1463- 1480
LDPE                          1190-1240             1230- 1290            1210-1340
LLDPE                        1160- 1290             1170- 1280            1110- 1210
HDPE                          1160- 1190             1100- 1180            1110- 1210
PP                              1190- 1220-            1110- 1150             1120- 1180
PVC                            890-- 900               900--  1044             1000- 1211
Styrene                       980- 1050              950-  1110               990- 1080
PS                              1300- 1380             1380-1390             1190- 1300
ABS                            1890-1890              1840-1950             1450-1550
EG                              1190- 1360              1190-1320             1150- 1350
POY                         1200-1350(USD/Ton)
AN                              1250- 1450              1300-1450            1200-1300
Natural rubber           1900-  2050
with China petrochemicals prices  following US/Asia export prices and within 8 % floating at higher end , It justs raise 18 %, reflect crude oil price costs
Pioneer of OSA forecast ,Dr Warren Huang has over 30 years develop, implementation of thousands structural, dynamic simulators for corporate structural finance applications for investment, supply chain, production, procurement, marketing, competitive pricing strategy for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Taiwan/s Chinese Petroleum, China's SINOPEC, CNOOC, and Taiwan's Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemicals, Indonesia Pertamina, Singapore Petroleum , Exxon, BP, Shell, ChevronTexaco, Petronas, Petroleum Authority  of Thailand, Austrian Oil, and OPEC Petroleum Ministers conferences.
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 He wrote over 20 articles on US Oils & Gas Journals, Hydrocarbon Processing circulating millions copies  to 78 countries since 1979 - 2003,  on  global oil, gas, petrochemicals demand, pricing, investment,  supply chain logistics, import/export strategy simulation forecast integrating into process plant  reactor yield, recovery  unit design,  operations improvement, energy and waste minimization, de-bottleneck  optimization, and control, investment banking, structural finance venture capital risks management. He published  32 global strategic business process optimization systems by  US Gulf Publishing Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Process Control, Information Systems handbook, 1991-2003. applied by 1600  oil/ gas upstream/downstream  multinationals from 72 countries www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html
This website visited daily by global central banks, IMF, World bank, OPEC and 1600 major Oils, multinationals companies, 2 million copies right to 78 countries consuming  multinationals  ( Exxon, BP, Shell, Du Pont, Dow, Chevron, Aramco ,)  for supply chain, investment, strututral finance venture capital,  production planning.

Rate hikes Impact on Global Oils  and 20 industrial sectors demand, prices, profit squeeze simulation/forecast, strategic investment, supply chain logistics lectures/workshops tours 
　

Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, industrial sectors asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

 Global Strategic Structural Commodities Finance Workshops: : Thousands structural dynamic simulators Integrating economic market forces impact into  commodities investment, manufacturing, marketing, pricing business process.  Tracking, maximze risks adjusted return
Rate hikes Impact on Global 20 industrial sectors asset  prices, cash flow, peformance simulation/forecast, strategic investment, supply chain, default risks lectures/workshops tours 

Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, industrial sectors asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

 Macroeconomic control , prices stability and capital market  oil, petrochemicals upstream/downstream and 20 industrial sectors, 5000 end-users products demand, prices, profit margin, stock prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts.
He has been invited to give keynote speech on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on last 20 years  global economic outlook and 20 industrial sectors capital markets asset prices, risk management tracking to 45 US, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Asian central bank governors, OPEC petroleum ministers, China SINOPEC presidents sponsored China International petrochemicals chemicals and Large Chemicals plant conferences in Antwerp, Brussel, wealth management, financial market risk management and 100 International Chemicals Engineering conferences and thousands workshops for millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985

 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 1990, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore

 http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 25 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate election, yearend  market rebound will be followed by post election bubble burst  ( soaring oil, raw material cost, in global economic slowdown due to credit tighteninh) sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China  first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, must  follow US rate hike in Sept.  implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices, any postpone of rate rate hike  will further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 50 and metals to  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.6 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq  1750- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.26 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation 

  Dr. Huang global oil/petrochemicals  strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )North American China investment seminar========
He was interviewed by Silicon Valley Finance radio/TV station and keynote speaker for Global Chinese Finance Forum investment seminar, May 8, 2004, and Huaxin securities, Silicon Valley, San Francisco to speak on Oil prices, US, China credit tightening impact on China/US investment: Strategic OSA maximize North American investors investment return  

A. Commodity Research Board Index (CRB) Futures Simulation:
China has become playing more important role in commodity prices, as she become major consumer (importer) and producer (exporter) in feed grain, cotton metal, energy. CRB index has been related to China's inflation, money supply and US dollar to Euro exchange rate.
This relation explain US rate , tax cut third quarter 2003 , dollar plunged 50 % vs EURO pushed CRB soared to 285,
 24 year high and  in 1997 when China pump up money supply growth to 25 % , inflation at 6 %for return of Hong Kong, Asian and Hong Kong money supply growth at 18 % at their demand peak.  US tax cut in April and summer driving gasoline demand will push gasoline prices over 145 and apporaching winter haeting oil demand, push heating oil prices to 130- 155, NYMEX crude oil over 50,  CRB over 285,  even facing US release of strategic petroleum reserve and OPEC raise the production.
It also tracking the bottom of 1986   summer 1998 and earlier 1999, as China money supply growth down to 10 %, Yen drop to 147 and 125, China inflation down to -3.6 %. Asian recovery and strong China export growth, money supply rebound to 18 % in the second half, inflation up to  -2.6 %and additional 150 billion RMB to boost domestic demand lead China out of deflation pushed CRB to 226.
B China, NYMEX and global Energy Futures prices simulation
Energy (crude oils, gas oils, fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas, propane, electricity power prices ) future prices have been related to their end use seasonal demand, inventory(which closely related to monetary policy), and production costs, OPEC supply and US dollar exchange rate
Again, Asian crisis resulted plunge in energy  price especially fuel oil, naphtha for industrial demand spread into China(demand) and major oil producer Indonesia Rupiah plunge from 1600 to 11000, further cut into crude oil prices to 10
However 1999 Asian recovery,  US summer gasoline demand playing key role in gasoline and crude oil prices rebound, OPEC took the right moment in April to announce 1.7 million barrels production cut pushed US gasoline prices from 33 bottom( predicted by Huang in US financial conference on Mar. 28 and on osawh.com) to 59 c/gal, pushed Nymex from 10 to 22 in June. As US soaring stock markets pushed consumer spending more on travel and gasoline), and the fuel oil prices also went up from 30 to 61 due to Asian recovery created demand
Global Crude oil future prices = (currency exchange rate, US gasoline price, US fuel price )

This relationship explain   strong gasoline demand, and fuel inventory buildup pushed crude oil prices to 25 in summer 1999. and soared to 37 in May 2000 and weak dollar, US consumer demand of 7 %, China money supply growth  22 %,  29 years low in crude oil, fuel oil  inventory 
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation)
======Special  Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops  Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Thousands structural dynamic OSA  futures, option prices simulators tracking  forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all  crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Sept  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com
Monetary Policy Impact  on Asian, US, European Petrochemicals  spot, contract prices
Dr. Warren Huang  pioneered the OSA, tracking Asian, European, US petrochemicals, plastics contract, spot prices have been closely related to regional money supply growth, raw material cost, dollar, currency exchange rate, Yen exchange1997-98 Asian currency crisis lead to Asian money supply contraction: Japan from 12 to 3 %, Korea from 15 % to 5 %, China from 28 % to 14 %, Taiwan from 12 to 6 %, Hong Kong from 18 % to 4 % cutting down demand for fuel, gasoline, naphtha, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers  by 30 %, lead to crude oil prices slump from 22 to 10, Naphtha, gas oils, and downstream petrochemicals, plastics, fibers prices down more than 50 % These relationships accurately predicted daily prices fluctuation since 1980.

The results have been published on Oil & Gas Journal, 1983, presented to Amrican Institute of Chemicla Engineers Diamond Jubilee meeting in Washington DC, World Congress in Tokyo and INTERPEC CHINA in Beijin.  OPEC ministers conference in Singapore, published over thousand  articles on Taiwan, China's daily news papers, investment journals, and on this website and  predicted accurately in global central banks governors and financial conference since 1980, visited by million government, banking finance, OPEC , multinational oil, petrochemicals  companies CEO, CFO, traders.

Global oil prices mechanism, market forces Operations Simulations Analysis  experts system's have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European oils, petrochemicals, financial markets, tracking, simulate daily  US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis  and it's impact on global   commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices  simulation, investment,  risk  management for helping  30 millions global  corporate CEO,  finance, import/ export,  currency  and equities trading, oil, feedstock strategic procurement, marketing  managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial  and energy crisis .
Dr. Huang has accurately predicted one month ahead of last 24 years energy crisis, recovery. He wrote thousand articles, newsletters on Taiwan, CHina daily economic, commercials, industrial economic , China, Shanghai, Shenzhen securities times newspaper and spoke to hundreds US, European, Asian Chemical Engineering, Petroleum ministers, supply chain strategy conferences and lectured to 30milion China, Taiwan TV, radio audiences commentary and thousand workshops to millions import/exporters, procurement, CEO, CFO on oil, upstream, downstream prices, procurement strategy  
==== Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ===========
==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
t  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University Chine economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management    ========================================================================================
*Warning : All our webpages are not updated regularly, are  used for references only,Will not be  responsible for any financial loss, Go to our thousands workshops for free update of OSA simulation develop out of your own historical data  reserve your in-house workshops   wh3928@yahoo.com
OSA Services :workshops Memberships training centers, goal, mission performance- OSA programs

==== Global trillion dollar NPL assets prices simulation,  recovery, prevention  workshops,========
OSA maximize nonperofrmance oil upstream/downstream debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst   reserve your in-house workshops   wh3928@yahoo.com
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Global Oil/Gas/Petrochemicals Upstream/Downstream Profit Management Workshops
Dr Huang offered full day workshop on maximize oils upstream/downstream profit to Exxon, Asian oil, petrochemicals, SIngapore Developement Banks senior executives 

Nov. 30,2001, in Beijin,  Jan 21-22, 2002 in Taipei for Chinese Petroleum top executives and  global multinational oil, petrochemical upstream/downstream and banking, financial executives recommended taking advantages of greater China  investment, procurement and inventory profit as oil prices dip below 17 and naphtha, oledin, Styrene  upstream/downstream feedstocks prices dip in early 2002.  oil prices soared to 28 from 17, olefin, Styrene prices doubled and their  stocks prices more than triple .:He recommended to take advantage of the crude oil and refining product prices swing for inventory cost reduction and inventory profit generation to and  that anyone attended his workshops  will take home with biillions dollar SCM solution ready to implement 
He also warned  on May 29, 2002, Peking University, global finance conference , Beijin that OPEC will not raise production in economic slowdown to maintain 24-28 price range(while most analyst misled the market speculate production hike Monetary Policy Impact on Global Commodities Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in corporate profits due to global inflation/deflation, monetary, economic, fiscal policy resulted recession, boom, Iraq war, resulted product demand and prices swing in global commodities,  oils, industrial raw material and consumers products contract and spot and futures prices can be simulated to it's current and future raw material cost, monetary policy impact on products demand, inventory, (end stocks, supply (weather related crops) and the dollar exchange rates in the export countries
Asian currency crisis resulted plunge in demand and commodity prices more than 50 % resulted trillion dollar loses could have been avoided by thousands of such proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan on TV, radio programs since 1980 applying to 200,000 importer/exporter members weekly global currency tracking and import/ export pricing strategy and metals, feed grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper and computers companies daily global corporate procurement, marketing strategic decisions. He spend half time in China with Ji during 1994-98 to extend to training, lecturing 20 millions China financial and commodity, oils   futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers, investors on TV radio programs. These relationships explain the recent gold and IC, oils, commodity prices slump and due to Asian slowdown,( money supply growth drops sharply) the strong US dollar, lower inflation and the oil and rices (production  cost)

Profile/Founder 
OSA Global strategic management pioneer Dr. Warren Huang cv  30 years development, implementation of government, banking, finance  Information Knowledge based customized in-house global leadership breakthrough in strategic proactive investment, marketing,  supply chain logistics , combining the best of West (US  Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bechtel, Fluor, Bailey network controls headquarters  working experience) and East (China , Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN state , SME, banking, finance consulting, 30 million CEO/CFO, executives investors training workshops ) workshops . He conducted teaching, research at Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai University in Taiwan and China's Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechian, Dalian, Hua-zhon Science & Tech , Chunqing Universities on Chemical Engineering Process Design, Simulation, Control,
Economic Management, MIS, EMBA/CFA, Financial Engineering integrating theory into practice providing dynamic  tracking  global  economics market forces, manufacturing, business process, information technology, and people information knowledge management systems  strategic decision analysis simulation, forecasting integration,  supporting CEO  breakthrough in global  leaderships and proactive, reactive strategic investment, developed, implemented thousands structural, dynamic strategic investment, supply chain competitive pricing simulators for global strategic solution to tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on macro-economics, growth, financial economic interest rate, currency, stock, bond, commodity prices, oils and  IT upstream/downstream  20 industrial sectors 5000   raw materials costs demand, products prices forecasts, e-commerce daily corporate/plant, business, technical process  systems innovation, operations improvement simulation, procedure review, upgrade millions global CEO, CFO, senior executives decision analysis  training support in  reform, restructuring, reengineering,  investment,  venture capital merger/acquisition performance and supporting three pillars of Basel II requirement  credit, market, operational risk analysis, control by tracking, simulating financial accounting systems, early warning for corporate scandals, minimize  risks capitals , in regulation, transparency   supply chain logistics, process plant operations cost reduction, market shares , global strategic alliance and strategic business process sourcing/outsourcing strategy,  without job cuts in one year OSA program and financial accounting tracking  for internal/external auditing in corporate scandals early warning  market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
He pioneered and patented " Improve Process by OSA ", May 1980  ,Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon Processing  and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html   circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to US Steel, Westing- house global technology productivity management conference, American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese articles  as columnist on daily  economic, finance, industrial economic  newspapers , weekly, monthly economic, finance, investment, trade journals 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export pricing  in Taiwan, China.

Millions global central banks, government, banking, finance, enterprises, CEO, CFO,  executives visited and supported www.osawh.com website since July 1998  (Partial lists)
Global central banks, government agency:
FRB, ECB, China Peoples banks, State department, IMF, World Bank, UN, OCED,US  Dept of energy, NASA , Center of Disease Control, State and cities government, Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs, Finance, Education, Taipei, Kaoshiung cities , Academy of Science, Information Technology research Institute)
Global Banking, finance, insurance:
JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Merrial Lynch, Goldman Sach, State Street, Fidelity, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, Prudential, ManuLife, Cathy Life ,CNA, J Hancock , Lehman, Bloomberg, Dow Jones. Reuter, Wall Street Journal, Business Week
Corporate :
McKinsey,  Ernest Young, KPMG, IBM, HP, Compaq, NEC, CISCO, Intel, AMD, Nokia,  Taiwan Semiconductors, UMC, Honhai, Motorola, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Aramco, Dupont, Dow, Halliburton ,Sinopec, Japan Gasoline council, Dupont, Dow, ORCL, Boeing, GM, Benz, Honda, Samsung, Ford), Merck, Amgen, Johnson, Lilly, Celera, Weth)  
Academic/Education:
Northwestern, Michigan, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, MIT, Princeton, UC Berkeley, NYU, George Washington, Rutgers, UCSF, UCSD, UPensilvania,  Columbia, Chicago, Cornell, Cambridge, London)

Services:
Goal:
1.achieve billion dollar procurement, inventory cost reduction (take advantage 30 % prices swing through OSA reliable forecasts
2. Competitive Pricing, the prices leader for expanded global market shares
3. Integrated supply demand chain cost reduction
4. CEO, CFO, procurement, inventory marketing managers on the job decision and strategy training ,

Annual corporate memberships:
provide weekly newsletter update for near term (procurement, inventory ,sales) and medium, long term  forecasts (for investment/planning):
and  review, simulation  forecast of China monetary policy and economic planning impact on oil, petrochemicals, polymers demand, prices, profit margin, investment, marketing strategy

A: Crude oils and refining products, lube oil, natural gas.
B. Olefin/polyolefins
C. BTX, Styrene/PS/ABS
D. Fiber intermediates/fibers
E. China oil, petrochemical procurement, marketing, investment strategy(full day)

Workshops: 
A. Global oils, gasoline, fuel , natural gas upstream/downstream demand,  prices simulation forecast, hedging risk, SCM  strategy 
Full day workshops for the latest OSA forecast  for monetary policy impact on    European, Asian, US demand, spot, contract prices for crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, fuel oil futures, options and downstream  hedging risks hedging strategy for procurement cost reduction,
A. Global petrochemical feedstocks, plastics, fibers, styrenics prices simulation forecast, hedging risk, SCM   strategy : Feedstocks, products   competitive pricing for market shares strategy, and full day review simulation  forecast of  monetary policy and economic, fiscal policy impact on  oil, petrochemicals, polymers, fierbs  demand, prices, investment, marketing strategy in maximize oil upstream/downstream petrochemical profits under uncertainties
and full day billion dollar supply chain cost reduction workshops


A: Crude oils and refining products
B. Olefin/polyolefins
C. BTX, Styrene/PS/ABS
D. Fiber intermediates/fibers
E. China oil, petrochemical procurement, marketing, investment strategy(full day)

email  whuang3928@aol.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com  for  reservation details

Key Benefits:                           

• Up to billions dollars cost reduction in feedstock, fuels , downstream  procurement logistics, revenues, profits   generated by competitive pricing, expanded market shares  through these reliable commodity  futures, options  prices  simulation and  will  help the global  cor porate CEO financial, procurement, marketing  decisions in global procurement, investment, market ing strategy, maximize   profit at minimum loss.
• Also help investors timing in global oils, petrochemical merger/acquisition,  investing return..

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