NYMEX daily crude oil , gasoline, fuel oil futures,
option prices Proactive OSA Forecasts
Monetary Policy Impact on oil, gas, gasoline, fuel oil prices futures
OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of Dr. Warren Huang speaking pioneering experiences in development, implementation of proactive, structural financial engineering theory of two master hands controlling global macro economic control, growth, oil/downstream futures, derivatives prices and daily financial capital market assets( stocks, bond, housing, commodities) prices: Thousand proactive structural dynamic simulation forecasts month, years of macroeconomic control, monetary economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years China/global GDP, employment, inflation and daily capital markets interest rates, currency, bond, commodity, industrial sectors demand, prices, stock prices market forces mechanism forecast( special one time offer for simulation charts contact osawhh@sina.com / wh3928@yahoo.com supporting US, China, Taiwan, Asian government, banking, finance, multinational, state and medium, small enterprises reform, venture capital investment banking, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning for global financial, currency, energy asset bubbles burst crisis, Basel II credit, market., operations risks management early warning. With correlation constant over 0.95, average error below 1.5 %, He has been invited to speak to US, ECB, China, Asian 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management, oil, financial futures, derivative conferences.
With this proactive simulation forecast Enron
could have made 2.7 billion profit
in 2001 recession instead inflated loss
betting the wrong direction and bankruptcy
China fuel oil company could have made billion dollar
in 2004-2005 oil prices boom
instead of short the oil led to 500 million loss scandals
Proactive
oil, energy futures, derivatives prices OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang, project managers for US Mobil, Phillips
Petroleum and China, Taiwan state oil companies supply chain pricing strategy,
received US Patents on Oils pricing strategy published on US
Oil & Gas Journal circulation to 80 countries million copies.
Dr. Huang applied proactive structural dynamic simulation through artificial intelligence neural net and
regression analysis, integrating
last 20 years US, China, Taiwan, HK, Asian monetary, economical, policy
impact on macro economical control, oil upstream/downstream supply demand and futures, derivatives
prices predicted months ahead
energy crisis, since 1980, covering oil prices from 10 to 75
oil future price P
= F ( x1, ,x2 ,x3 )
= F US business demand growth , Gasoline
futures price, fuel oil future
price)
Dr. Huang predicted 3 months ahead:
,2001in Beijing to Mobil, DBS Bank VP that oil prices plunged to 19 due to US
rate hikes resulted business demand plunged -15 % x1 = -15 % , x2 = 59,
x3 = 59 oil
price = 19
ENRON invested in 20 billions oil futures, derivative at US D 32 , inflated the loss 2.7 billion dollars due to ignoring US rate hikes resulted
recession, oil prices plunged to 19.
Dr. Huang predicted again Nov 2003 on Singapore, Shanghai, Beijjin Asian, China
finance, capital market conferences to 2000 QFII, multinational oil executives,
warning excessive China money
supply ( at 24 % and US ( 9 %) driving housing, auto and metals, oil demand,
pushed record prices, inflation,
for rate hikes, macroeconomic control in 2004 continue into 2006 , US business
demand x1 up 12 % ,
oil prices soared from 30 to 60 in 2004 and 70 in 2005 and 75 in 2006
x1 = 12 % , x2
= 80, x3 = 140 oil price P = 50
for 2004
China fuel oil companies bought oil
future put option at 35 expect to drop, try to covering loss 500 million dollar in 2004 – 2005 ,
resulted bankruptcy
Dr. Huang predicted to Asian Business Forum China gas conference Beijing. 100 Phillips
Petroleum CEO, Merril Lynch, HSBC
VP
that oil prices will be soared to 70 in summer 2005
He predicted to Asian Business
Forum China gas conference Beijing. 40 Phillips Petroleum CEO, ExxonMobil, Aramco VP
that oil prices will be soared to 70 in
Jan 2006 and 80, in summer
2006
x1 = 14 % , x2 = 265 , x3 = 205 oil price P = 70
for summer 2005 and Jan 2006
x1 = 16 % , x2 = 265 , x3 = 205 oil price P = 80
for summer 2006