homepage Proactive Structural Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of   Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on US , Global National and Regional Full cycle Housing Price Bubble Identification, Growth, Burst Mechanism, Sub-prime Mortgage Default Crisis, Minsky Framework  Debt  Crisis and Financial Crisis,  Causes onset, spread and Consequences and  Recession, Recovery , Exit , Unemployment  ,Bail out, QE1,2, Economic stimulus plan impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) by    Daily Blogs and Workshops )   Forecast pioneered by Dr. Warren Huang top down, bottom up approach to Global macro, financial, industrial economic systems integration  

Nobel idea and 30 years implementation of  proactive structural national, regional housing prices bubble growth,  burst and control  full cycle decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy   in  Macro Economic Growth, Prices Stability and Housing Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  mechanism   predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) for  trillion dollar investment risk early warning and billion dollar supply chain cost reduction

These proactive structural models provided the what, why and how, timing of global housing bubble formation, growth and burst , predicted, months, years ahead of last  20 years global housing price bubble and related defaults, replacing current 30 year probabilistic, statistical  Monte Carlo approach resulted  betting on the wrong side of investment!
 Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and Phase II Global recession impact on banking, mortgage default, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
 Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with US facing -3.5 % , Japan -7.5 %, Euro -4 %. UK, -4 %,China 7 %, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, -4 %, Taiwan, Singapore - 7 %drag housing price slump, credit, financial crisis, default despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,   L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
Phase III  post recession recovery :
US warmer than usual winter weather  and drop in unemployment rate to 8.1 %   lead to housing sales, prices rebound  10 % from double dip bottom, mortgage defaults rate drop from last years 12 % to April, 7.4 % However, global  slowdown, due to China, housing bubble control and Euro debt crisis recession and US budget cuts will drag US housing prices in double dip housing price .
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/snapshot-housing-sector-152219328.html
Global Housing Prices Data 2000- 2010 http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-estate-house-prices/U

China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices.
 recession recovery. despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,  
Asian economic rebound lead by China due to excessive liquidity resulted housing, stock market bubbles, forced China into Macro- housing market price control, credit tightening reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 % by yearend and Asian central banks rate hikes. EURO debt crisis cut government spend, drag GDP below 1 %, lead to Japan  drag by excessive personal, business, government debt,  and strong Yen facing double recession While US record housing prices  bubble  burst , housing prices plunged over 30 %   unemployment soared to 9.5- 10 % ,mounting personal, business, government debt and plunging confidence continue into 2012, facing trilemma of inflation/deflation with CPI  at 1- 3 % and double dip in housing slump and recession ( GDP below 1 % . L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011

According to my housing pricing model, it is related to mortgage interest rate, the money supply, ( liquidity), Dow Jones index and unemployment rate foreclosure rate, as foreclosure provide a third of cheap houses in the market, it will drag house prices, down.
Temporary closing the foreclosure gate will provide support of housing prices. but when the get open , it will drag the housing prices down again at record unemployment will lead to weak housing sales demand .
The housing price slump will be delayed to later foreclosure gate open.
banks will be facing increased risks in repeating subprime crisis in future housing price plunge at current very low capital ratio ( only 2 -5 %)
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/BaselIIIrisk.htm
  • 2:24 pm September 24, 2010  Warren Huang comment on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics
I warned on this blog since 2007 that excessive rate cuts, trillion dollar housing, banking bail out and tax rebate will not help housing market slump.
Let the market supply demand run its, own correction course.
Tax rebate, stimulus only destroy market mechanism , to let home buyer rely on further help, and delay and destroy their demand pattern.
Based on our tracking last 30 year global housing market demand , prices pattern in recession, Housing market only rebound 6 onths to a year after government stimulus and rate cuts.
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdef.htm
　

US housing prices and home loan demand in July 2010 hit 6 year low  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-loan-demand-rb-205975344.html?x=0
 Do not miss our 5 day US/Global housing price bubble, financial crisis, recession impact on US national and housing loan default and housing prices   investment, risks early warning  workshops  by OSA housing bubble burst OSA pioneer          Dr./Prof.       Warren Huang    OSA Global Strategic Management  San Francisco, Ca., USA

Proactive Structural Analysis of Financial Crisis event in India: Financial Crisis, Asset Pricing, Risks Valuation, and Early Warning 4 Days workshops in India Delhi and Mumbai
Oct. 21- 24, 2009 for investment consultants, banking, finance, multinational manufacturing senior executives by Dr. Warren Huang                       
                                Website :www.osawh.com /  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1   email: wh3928@yahoo.com        

   http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout   http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2
Seasonal adjusted housing prices rebound  is too weak, but still shown housing price will continue downtrend after Aug, the current seasonal demand is  peaking out, which fail to reflection sufficient impact by soaring jobless rate resulted consumer confidence plunge and spending.             

Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that US and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 32 % from its 2006 peak into 2009 ( http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us ---- , drag US and  global economy into 1980 style deep double dip recession  stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative, CDS spread  Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 -70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 6000- 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 600-  700 low, oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to 30，Gas oil from 1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as global economy  enter deep recession through 2009, despite rate cuts to zero and -5 5 FUND RATE, US 8 TRILLION  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis , there is no economic recovery till late 2009, even with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out and infrastructure job creation program lead to housing price rebound since 2009 April 7500 housing buyer tax credit and mortgage rate cut, housing prices only rebound 4 % from to bottom till July 2010, will give up its gain after housing tax credit expire, June 2010, as housing sales already plunge 20 %.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chart-that-proves-housing-had-a-good-may-2009-7
June 2009 US housing sales, prices data http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_bi_ge/us_housing_mid_year_outlook
2010 1 Q US housing prices, foreclosures rate  http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=169

The best, worst recession recovery cites in US  http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo
US cities real estate crash 2006- 2009   http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-real-estate-heads-for-the-depths-2009-7#dallas-tx-1

Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Aug. 30, 2010
With personal income trailing spending, sluggish stock market and export growth, US consumer spending , consumer confidence , housing price rebound are not sustainable!
these were due to second quarter housing tax credit of 8000 , auto incentive and tax rebate, and bullish stock market wealth gain. with all these program expired now, we are facing existing and new housing sales plunge to record low, stock bullish index plunge to record 21 low. housing prices will resume to downturn and soaring foreclosure rate  for the rest of the year!.
US economy will getting worse as continued housing market slump, at record jobless rate despite record low interest rate,  any drive to prove lower interest rates will not help and housing rebound and prevent economic double dip recession , July consumer spending surge is not sustainable, as we are facing China credit tightening economic cooloff from GDP of 11 % to 8 % by year end and Asian countries India, Korea, Australia rate hike fight housing prices bubbles will cut our export growth.. Euro are debt crisis will drag GDP to 1 %, Japan facing near recession, with stimulus facing slowdown ahead.
US second GDP only grow 1.6% even with Fed's aggressive MBS buy back, housing, auto incentive program We will expect the second half GDP much below 1 % with all these stimulus program removed since April.
In the mean time we are facing trilemma situation with record personal, business, government debt and excessive liquidity all ready endange rcredit rating and inflation fear
That is why US stock bullish index plunged from 30 to 21 ( close to 2009 March low of 19 , Dow Jones index will test 9000- 9900 ahead

details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html   www.osawh.com/dowwp.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog  November 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm

  • Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Sept. 18, 2009
    We need innovation breakthrough in macro economic and financial economic, decision modeling to upgrade current probability, statistical based models, which fail to predict the housing, equities, commodities prices bubbles impact on inflation, growth recession and daily asset prices and risks valuation mechanism resulted run away inflation and housing bubbles burst, recession, trillion doallr investment loss , banking finance bankruptcy.
    What we needed is proactive structural top down bottom up integrated macro, financial, industrial decision models, predicting last 30 years financial crisis, recession and daily asset prices and current exit strategy impact on debt, liquidity bubble burst crisis.
    details on http://www.osawh.com/econ.htm http://www.osawh.com/assetbub.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.html      http://www.osawh.com/debtbub.htm

  • comment by Dr. Warren Huang to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic blog, Sept 5, 2009

    • Higher banks capital requirement alone can not stop, prevent banking, financial crisis.
      We must tracking into the root causes of current which was caused by out dated monetary policy and unreliable CAPM financial decision models which created housing bubble burst and asset prices bubble burst trillion dollar market loss due to bet on the wrong side of macro, financial economy and investment scenario.
      I have been warning global economist, market analysts in China, US, Asian, European central banks, financial market risk management conferences that global central banks, financial market decision models still using 30 year old classical monetary economic theory with monetary policy based on conventional money supply growth tie in CPI inflation and GDP , ignoring financial, industrial assets ( oil, commodities, housing, equities, bond ) prices impact on CPI, and scenario resulted underestimate the asset prices bubbles impact on macro, financial, industrial markets, resulted bubble burst, run away inflation, credit , financial crisis, recession..
      While the financial market decision models supported scenario still rely on classical capital market asset price model based on statistical, probability models fail to relate macro, financial, industrial economic impact on daily asset prices, resulted betting on the wrong scenario , trillion dollar market loss
      Even 100 % efficient market with all the market information can not stop speculators using daily investors sentiments ( government ,business, economic information ) to push overheated bubbles to burst and financial crisis.
      Only top down, bottom approach approach proactive structural monetary , economic, fiscal policy to include asset pricing mechanism into inflation, interest rates, and using top down, bottom up approach in asset pricing mechanism, tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy and impact on macro, financial, industrial economic and daily asset prices and investors sentiment can track, predict last 20 year global financial crisis, recession.
      details on http://www.osawh.co,/cnetmaf.html http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
      http://www.osawh.com/econ.htm http://www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html http://www.osawh.com/value.html

by Proactive Structural Dynamic Optimal monetary , economic, fiscal, trade policy , capital markets integration, Operation Simulation Analysis ( OSA ): Chinese (中文)
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
Optimal proactive structural Global and  US Fed and Global central banks Monetary Policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and Currency,  price stability without  Inflation,  Asset Prices bubble OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control: Integrating last 30 years global  housing, commodities, oil, equities asset prices and consumer prices into monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on GDP  and  prices stability , proactive optimal control, presented top 24 global central banks governor policy, financial risk management , macro- financial econometric conferences
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog July 23 12.37 PM,2009,

  • http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-housing-metrics-really-are-headed-in-the-right-direction-2009-7#home-sales-are-growing-again-1
    • This seasonal sales rebound as the increasing demand from April to June into the peak housing sales demand into summer.
      This improvement in demand will peaking out after t summer demand is decline in Sept.
      And most of this demand is among the distress housing slump with housing prices plunged 30- 50 % and foreclosure make even making better bargain.
      But the high end luxury housing and commercial real estate just down 10 % have a long way to go in 30- 50 % price correction
      According to my research of last 30 years global housing prices bubble bursts price mechanism, despite the average, housing price plugned 32 % from 2006 peak, the high end luxury housing prices still holding up only down 10 %, due to supported by excess liquidity resulted banking finance stock prices rebound and stock makrte 50 % rally. However, these housing prices must crash 30- 50 % by the end of our recession and stock market correction in the year ahead, s we will facing rate hikes resuled double dip recession. Any housing prices bubbles can not be complete, until the high end luxury and commercial real estate make 30- 50 % correctiopn, Any bail can not help , it, just like trillion dollars rebate and rate cuts can not stop housing prices plunged 32 % till now! details can be found on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/assetbub.htm

    Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 11, 12.37 PM,2009,   

    Stock market speculators using May retail sales improvement fail to lift the stocks due to this comes out mostly from summer travel gasoline sales with price up from 260 to 320 in May
    While housing markets sales rebound in distress area due to economic stimulus 8000 tax credit for first time buyers. leading to May foreclosure drop 6 % from April. However, the soaring jobless rate at 9.4 %, ( despite job loss in May drop to 345000 and claim drop from 663000 to 601000 will not be sustainable). With unsold house inventory stood at 11 month, housing price slump continue to spread into wider area, due to soaring jobless rate. and foreclosure rate will be back to 10 % due to soaring 30 year mortgage rate from 4.6 % to 5.6 %. will drag future housing price and consumer retail spending
    details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html  http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 5, 12.37 PM,2009,

  • Looking over the past jobs and economic activities history, the emplovment in May is just reflection the seasonal nature of retail and real estate and increasing activies rom Jan to May, as it entering peak season, associated to school summer vacation, and professional vacation. plus stimulus 170 billion tax rebate siince March.
    We will see this up trend peaking out in July, and start down turn , repeating last year and 2007 subprime crisis.
    We have not Yes, this iis only from money managers point of overoptimistic  view, enjoy the speculative stock prices bubble on 40 % gain on US and global stock markets look at a money supply, banking, finance side benefited by 8 trillion bailout and toxic asset removal, stock purchase, making good bank bullish economic recovery indicators, created V-shape recovery.
    Whie the real economy, hosuing market continue slump with 12 % foreclosure, 32 % drop in housing prices, and9.4 % jobless rate, global deep recession ( GDP down 4 to - 19 %)
    Sooner or late this year, we will find out that we have to face the worst of this credit financial , crisis, recession full impact on stock markets.
    details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html   http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm      http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, May 27,, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar financial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -6.2 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and -5.7% for 1 Q 2009  and 8.9 %% unemployment and now we in  Phase II Global deep recession ( Japan -15 % GDP, China 6.1 %, Korea -4.3 %, Taiwan -8.4 %, German -8.2%, UK -7.4 %, Singapore - 19 %, EURO 4.3 %, Brazil -13.6 %, Russia - 6 %)impact on Global banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump, export slump, and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending plunged over 5 %, will drag stock price for 20 % with Dow Jones retest 6000- 7000 lows in W shape  more summer correction resulted widening mortgage,( as April foreclosure ra soared to 12 %, housing price down 32 % from 2006 peak, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
despite money supply growth double, stock market two month rally 40 %, 8 trillion dollar bail out stimulus give some improvement in housing sales rebound, ISM index, tax rebate only provide partial support to consumer sentiment, but not enough for raise consumer spending, retail spending , home buyer 8000 tax credit and lower interest rate payment cannot stop soaring foreclosure rate to 12 %, with 11 month unsold inventory. capital, liquidity still stay in banking finance system, with improved profit and stock prices after bail out and removing toxic asset,
Real econoy and manufacturing still in deep recession, excess capacity with record 67 % utilization, falling demand and pricesand profit plunge cntinue into next week asunemployment rate soared to 10 %by yearend.. with 2 Q still facing -3 %  GDP contraction, -2 % for the second half   this year, while China only has 6.5 % GDP growth and 7.5 % for the second half due to export decline , despite 568 billion economic stimulus, 30 % growth in fixed investment, 13 % in retail sales ,with money still in banking, finance, stock market ( up 40 %) fail to enter real economy
The rest of Asian economy facing similar situation following US, China stocks rally with over 40 % growth, even the economy still in deep recession, with 50 % decline in export for Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong  These huge Asian stock market bubble will follow US/China market for summer  W  shape correction , housing market continue to burst, with housing price down 50 % details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer  Dr.Warren  Huang
Millions of global /China management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 

5 Day Oil Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles

  • Comment by Dr. Warren Huang, to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog. May. 27, 2009
    • 4.01 pm May 27, 2009  Warren Huang wrote:
    Do not get carried away of a few improvement of home sales and ISM, that is just seasonal factors of increasing demand going into summer travel and housing boom peak sales ( school off for moving) The worst of mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession is not over for Bank of America, Citi and banking industry, despite trillion dollar bail and removing toxic asset and buying banking stocks , trillions dollar additional writedown will continue pouring in from soaring jobless rate, consumer, business loan defaults, foreclosure rate at 9- 10 % and falling housing prices through out this year.
    Most, economists and even Roubini are influenced by the stock market rally , excessive banking finance liquidity , getting convinced that recovery in insight!
    No quick recession recovery insight. It is pre matures and over optimistic to call the quick recovery. current optimism has been bssed on tow month stock market rally and trillions dollar bailout and stimulus resulted doubling in money supply growth resulted excessive liquidity in banking, stock market, leading to investor optimism and a few housing sales, ISM data. However these signs are not sustainable, as long as continued housing price slump, buildup in unsold house inventory, soaring foreclosure, jobless rate will drag consumer, business spending , leading to continue widening in consumer debt, loss in stocks and home liquidity wealth, repeating Japans 1990 housing bubble burst resulted 10 year recession /slow growth ,leading to prolonged recession through this year. Especially current market rally is repeating last year second quarter tax rebate resulted consumer, business spending rebound resulted GDP growth of 2.8 %, will not happen this year, as already seen in April retails sales plunge. and stock market will going through W shape correction this summer as disappointed U shape recession recovery drag economy into US and global recession early next year details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
  • Comment by Dr. Warren Huang, to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog. May. 27, 2009 Warren Huang wrote:
Despite rate cuts, even to -5 %, Housing bottom and   credit crisis ends only after the end of recession, the jobless rate peaking out. With 11 month of unsold housing inventory and recession drag us into next year, after economy is out of recession. There is no incentive for hoe buyer in falling housing prices and can not afford the low monthly income with interest rate only small part of it), rate cut to - 5 % can not, will not help push loan demand up. Despite some distressed housing are ( with price down over 30 %) like northern  California, Florida housing sales pick due to bargain hunting , most of countries, like New York, Seattle, Boston continue to slide into 20- 30 % decline, drag national price plunge 32 % from 2006 peak to 30- 40 % decline early next year. details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.html
  • Comment by Dr. Warren Huang, to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog.
    • 10:31 pm May 14, 2009  Warren Huang wrote:
    Despite these five encouraging banking, finance indicators improvements, We are still facing weakening real industrial economy, dropping demand, and prices ( PPI ex-food down 3.7 %,, falling housing prices, soaring job cuts.
    We are in the phase II of financial crisis, Recovery in banking finance.
    Stock market 30 % rebound, misguided us into overoptimistic over the recovering of banking, financial crisis, recovery.
    The 8 trillion excess will stay in banking, finance sectors gradually eating away by continued housing price slump resulted mortgage default bad loan and credit card default due to soaring job cuts and business loan default due to plunging consumer, business demand in deep recession.
    The banking, finance sectors credit financial crisis will not be fully recovered until 6 month after consumer , business demand rebound,
    housing market slump and job cuts stabilize, and economy out of recession. that mean next year.
    It is premature for any bull market stock rebound, until economy out of recession!
    details on predicted on this blog and Wall Street Journal 2007 market beat and housing development that US housing bubble burst with housing prices down minimum 30 % through 2009, despite rate cuts, bail out,.8 trillion dollars bail out and buying distress, toxic asset, saving mortgage industry, since last year, US housing price continue to drop as I predicted.
    Everyone from central banks, banking, investment banks, home buyers need good lesion of industrial finance, tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial (housing) supply, demand and prices ( bubbles) for the what , why, how and timing of housing investment and sustainable monetary policy for growth and stability.
    I warned on 2003 Asia, China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shanghai that US, China facing housing bubble.
    and warned again on 2007 Peking University Nobel Econometric conference, Wall Street Journal blog that US, and global housing price bubble burst, down 30- 50 % through 2009, drag gloobal stocks into 50- 70 % correction and deep recession.
    details on     http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
     http://www.osawh.com/toxicasset.htm
     http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     http://www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDP adn 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening lossdetails on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.ht

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy    panelist lecturePhase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
 for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
             Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
 China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009 panelist lecture
 and
 Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
  Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
    Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis , capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets

 Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Market Beat  Blog- - January 16, 2009 at 4:04 pm

Bank of America 4Q 16 billion loss is inherited from merger of Merrill Lynch, with total 136 billion bailout out does not solve Bank of American nor US banking, credit, financial crisis, as we are still only hafl way to housing market price slump, with currently down 19 % will continue plunge 30 % through second half this year. which will lead to more continued loan, credit loss, will lead to write down, operating loss for the best bank like JP Morgan, and additional loss out of Bank of American’s Merrill Lynch bad assets. US investrors speculators the market botton at 7900 will be drop into bear trap in the month ahead with Dow Jones plunge to below 7000 and SP below 700 and NASDAQ to 1250. details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm 

Comment by Warren Huang   Yahoo finance Blog- December 30, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Banking finance, housing performance
Based on my research of last 30 year global housing price bubble burst, the housing price plunge depend very much on the size of housing price bubble, and macro ecnomy ( consumer spending, unemployment). With US housing price bubble gain 400 % insome cities, hosuing price must have 50 % correction, while on average, hosuing price must correct 30- 50 %, natioanl housing price must slump 30 %., as I predicxted on Wall Street Journal market beat and this blog since Set. 2007.  therefore we have to wait to see the full imact of 7.5 % unemployment,
-6 % GDP contraction, and -10 % plunge in consumer, business spending next year, before housing price slump stopped, the Schiller index will be down 30 % then, cities like NY, Seattle prices still too high, it have to plunge 20 % to see any bottom, as to feel the the massive job cuts impact on it.  details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog- December 10, 2008 at 6:43 pm

What we need is the goal, mission , performance  tacking of these 10 items, and use proactive structural
approach to implementing these items, provide the what, why, how and timing of each problem,Take reduce foreclosure for example, find out why it fail to effectively cut foreclosure rate is due to most home owner lost their jobs, even, cut payment, mortgage rate can not help. You will find out that continued housing price slump drag economic deeper into recession, soaring job loss made things tougher. All these problems must integrating current, future macro, financial , industrial ( housing), economic for solution.
details on www.osawh.com/PGFCR.html www.osawh.com/PApBS.html
Comment to Yahoo Finance Blog. Dec. 5 2008 
Almost each day, we are adding to this long list of bailout programs, trillions dollar caused by poor financial decision and , betting on the wrong side of housing, and investment price. speculation over structured finance products related to mortgage investment MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS, ABS, and hedging. I warned this blog and Wall Stret Journal Sept. 2007, that subprime crisis will be spread into credit , financial crisis, and excessive rate cuts, bail out can not stop the burst of super housing price bubble, drag us into 1980 style double dip recession through 2009. I predicted trillions dollar will be needed to fill this mess, till next year. We need proactive structural simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro, financial, industrial economic and daily financial , housing, market investment , risk valuation. We need more on this proactive structural approach our problem, causes of credit, housing, financial, crisis, recession. Job creation is the key to stop housing market slump, tax rebate only create short term spending resulted inflationary and die away afterword like March rebate only boost second quarter GDP, can not stop slump thereafter.. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html www.osawh.com/ABS.html

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog July 30 2008 11:26AM ;  Oil price rebound from 120 ,We are half way to housing and stock market correction

 Continued SEC restriction on naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I predicted on this blog that we are half way to housing, stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing, financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 10600 this morning plunged to 11400.
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 before labor day due to rebate check support d summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment to  Wall Street Journal  REal Time Economics  Blog Aug 3,  2008  3:26AM 

The economy escaped recession in 2 Q with 1.9 % GDP growth, benefited by aggressive rate cuts and 160 billion economic package, at the cost pushing higher consumer demand for retail, food, gasoline led to 147 dollar crude oil price, skyrocketing  commodity food prices and 5 % CPI 9.2 % PPI inflation.
THe economy will slide into recession in the final quarter as the rebate check run out, and soaring job cuts, continued housing price slump, stock market correction. will drag ISM to 45 contraction slump
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrsisab.htm www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

May 2008 Schiller housing price index plunge 16 %, decline accelerate continue confirm our housing price slump model predicted on Wall Street Journal market beat, development blog  http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_072943.pdf                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                               Abstract

This paper demonstrated  Huang’s 30 years pioneering proactive, structural equities, housing asset prices bubbles bursts spread into credit, financial crisis Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), applications to US national and regional sub-prime and prime mortgage default crisis, credit crunch early warning
Thousands simulators have been developed, implemented for strategic investment, markets, credit risks simulation integration early warning for 30 million China, US Taiwan 15 cities 30 million institutional, private investors, global finance, capital market QFII, QDII, real estate, insurance, credit rating agencies, multinational CEO, seniors executives, lectures, workshops and 24 global central bank governors, banking, financial crisis, Hedging risks management conferences.
These artificial intelligence neural net based expert systems integrated macro financial, industrial econometrics OSA tracking, forecast years, months ahead of the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early  warning of last 20 years global banking, financial and housing ,asset bubble burst , credit default crisis, financial crisis..
These dynamic deterministic OSA　tracking global central banks monetary, economic stimulus, fiscal bailout policy impact on macroeconomic inflation, GDP, unemployment rate , daily Fed fund rates, mortgage interest rate, currency, commodities, housing mortgage demand, prices impact on  credit rating,  prepayment, defaults, systemic risks, recovery modeling, financial futures, credit derivatives, CRE, CDO, ABS, MABS assets class securitization pricing, credit and cash flow performance, hedging risks early warnings, integrating monetary policy impact on asset market prices risks into credit risk,  supporting financial, systems investment，macro-economic systemic risks , Basel II  credit, markets , operational risks control.
Huang directed Zhang to extend these OSA simulators to Nobel laureate  R. Engle’s Spline GARCH and co-integrate into Granger causes and casualty analysis. mortgage default and housing prices and ABS pooled asset credit and performances are related to deterministic exponential spline, combination of macro , monetary  economic and  time series dynamics . These unconditional mortgage default probability is estimated for US , China, Asian (  China, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) UK national, regional housing prices bubbles, and mortgage default probability , credit crunch over recent housing boom and bust cycle
 the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Consumer spending growth %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate, unemployment rate )
These analysis also supporting Huang’s 30 years OSA tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of mortgage default credit crunch  in which mortgage default risks are caused by 40 year low mortgage rate resulted speculative purchase and financing created soaring housing prices bubbles and banking, finance stock prices  wealth gain bubble, the default rate soared as mortgage rate rebound from 5.7 % to 6.7 % ,and jobless rate soared from 4.4 % to 5.5 % in 2007 ( now at 7.2 % in 2008, 9.4 % in May 2009)  while housing prices peaking out，down 20 %  increased sub-prime home buyer prepayment and monthly interest payment cost and soaring jobless rate  .
Despite monetary policy is not direct cause of default due to central bank only focus on underestimated  core inflation and unemployment (exclude food, energy cost ), ignoring housing and equities, commodities prices bubbles.  Excessive rate, tax cuts lead to over spending in personal debt and business spending created  trillions dollar housing and stock s market wealth gain , excessive liquidity speculative bubble asset bubbles growth to big for any central bank monetary policy to handle., lead to final bubble burst.
  This model shown by Dr. Warren Huang  Sept  2007 on Wall Street Journal Market Beat and Real Estate Development blog that  Current US regional housing price slump will continue through   2009 plunge 30- 50 %  Schiller 20 cities national  housing price index plunge 32 %  May 2009 from 2006 peak,  drag economy into  2009 deep recession by soaring job cuts,  foreclosure default, and plunging consumer, business spending, stock prices bear market  50 % correction , despite Fed monetary easing, rate cuts , trillion dollar bail out, m2money supply growth soared to 7.7 % and zero fed fund rate. Default rate soared to 12 % in  northern California  with 7.5% jobless rate, while national default at 9  % with 7.2% jobless rate..tracking local manufacturing ( Michigan, Ohio, finance (NY, Boston, SF) , agricultural ( California)  job loss, and national Fed monetary policy, local mortgage rate impact on regional housing loan default ( 12 %)  and housing prices .
    These models improve current probabilistic, statistical CAPM  asset pricing and Monte Carlo default simulation, oversimplified macroeconomic,  mortgage bond spread, credit rating and hedge fund,  real estate asset prices in structural finance CRE, MABS, CDO applications. tracking, forecast month ahead global  monetary, policy, foreclosure impact on national and regional housing prices avoided trillion dollars loss due to betting on the wrong side of credit derivatives, speculation over the business, economic news resulted past , current mortgages loan default and  stock market crash.

4 millions global government, banking, finance, enterprises CEO, executives and academics visited Huang’s www.osawh.com website tracking  forecasts last 10 years daily results.  

 Keyword : Housing ,Equities bubbles, Operations Simulations Analysis, proactive structural CAPM  credit risk,  market risks, currency interest rates derivatives pricing, risks hedging, securitization Basel II  risk  
presented  to Global financial engineering risk management conference , Peking Univ. June 12, 2007, Beijing, China

 

presented to International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference, June 12, 2007, Peking University China, with Noble prize 2003 Economic winner, 2003, give keynote speech on Spline GARCH applications and  to Asset Based Securitization Conference, Malaysia Central bank conference, Sept. 30, 2002 with Standard & Poors managing director give keynote speech

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , widening bond CDS spread ,Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 85- 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehaman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure program maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 2.4% in Nov .2008  after   China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 %start rate cuts to support 2009 growth while next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 3 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 24 2008 11:26AM ;  We are half way to housing and stock market correction

Recent banking, finance, housing share aggressive bull rebound (gained 30- 50 %) reacting to short covering and bull speculation on SEC restriction naked short
resulted excessive overbought in these sectors.we are just half way to housing price slump and stock market bear correction which will be extended to 2009 despite government action
and passing housing bill  as I warned on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics and Market beat blog since last Sept that rate cuts and economic stimulus can not stop sub-prime crisis spread to prime and general credit crisis and housing prices slump ( 30- 50 % regional price correction, trillion dollar loss) continue into summer 2008, we drag economy into 1980 style inflationary recession in 2009 and US, global stock markets bear market 30- 50 % correction with banking, finance, housing shares down 50-70 % and spreading into all sectors .
Therefore, all long positions call must be covered by short position to avoid bear trap details can be found www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm


 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary recession, stock bear market correction.
Proactive Structural dynamic analysis of US Sub-prime crisis 
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

The Long- short of FNM, FRE and banking , finance stocks
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 15  2008 at 5:51 pm

Speculators are working on both the short and long side of investment, speculate on the fundamental and business, economic news.
Daily volatility with 50 % trading on FNM ( it rebound 50 % from its yesterday low and US Bank Corp is rebound from 20.5 to 24 finaly settled at 22.4 all follow my two master hands ( macro financial and industrial economic impact on corporate earning, stocks price which tracking forecast last 20 years global 20 industrial sectors corporate performance, daily stock prices.
Take today as example, Dow Jones plunged to 10900 is indicating macro financial economic investors sentiments at new low, drag banking mortgage sectors deteriorating housing market slump, credit defaults crisis, job cuts, consumer confidence, and soaring inflation resulted widening writedown and loss, drag
FNM and most other banking, mortgage, financial stocks for new low. speculation on oil rice plunge due to profit taking is not sustainable as it did in the past, GM rebound in bear market is typical bear market rally, with bad news on auto sales and recession, GM is getting nowhere despite restructuring.
Any stock market bear market correction will continue for a while , spreading from banking, financial, housing to retails, hightech after current rebate check run out.
Dow Jones is heading for 10000 soon, NASDAQ for 2000.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm


 Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 14  2008 at 5:51 pm

I kept warning since last Sept on this blog that housing price slump, soaring foreclosure, will spread into national and regional banks, FNM and Freddie Mac and credit crisis into this summer, it will be premature for bottom fishing in banking, finance, housing sectors. Soaring oil, commodity price and inflation, plunging stock markets will cause additional pressure on inflationary recession and postpone housing market recovery   www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/UShouswksp.htm  www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- June 19, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking , proactive structural simulation last 30 year US/global housing price bubbles fundamental mechanism are driven by demand side housing, equities, wealth and monetary, policy. Housing price slump is due to soaring prices beyond affordability and investment incentive in poor underlying fundamental, ( soaring job cuts, unsold inventory, plunging consumer confidence). current housing price have to plunge t ( down 50 %) to more attractive affordable, as it did in all
housing bubble burst, Even rate cuts, stimulus package will not change the fundamental supply demand market forces.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/wealthm.html www.osawh.com/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang- May 15, 2008 at 2:03 pm on How to identify  and control asset bubble on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog

From my tracking, proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global energy, housing, IT bubbles burst results shown that all asst bubble formation can be identified 3 years ahead, I warned on Asian/China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shangahi, Beijin, Nov. 2003 that US /China housing bubble overheating, facing rate hike summer 2004,
US and China central banks did rate rate to cool housing, Fed cut money supply growth from 6 % to 2005 3.5 %, after Greenspan 17 raise rates, housing sales and price start peaking out in 2006.  However, after Bernanke stop rate hike in 2006, money supply growth up from 4 % to 6.5 % in 2007, excessive liquidity resulted subprime mortgage crisis,
If Fed continue adapt tight money policy credit rating through 2007, it will stop many questionable sub prime loans. despite housing bubble may burst, we will be already recovered now.
Fed should not yield to political pressure in dealing with asset bubble, same was true for 1996- 1998 IT stock prices bubble identification and continue credit tightening ing. will avoided 2000 bubble burst ( Nasdaq would just up to 3000 not 5100, much small bubble easier to deal with.
China follow US Fed, enjoyed macroeconomic and housing market soft landing in 2005 inflation down to 1.2 % after China Peoples Bank reduce the money supply growth from 24 to 13, housing price was up 200 % in 2004, plunged 30 % in 2005, stock prices plunged from 2000 to 1100. However, after CPBC follow US FEd stop credit tightening, money supply explode from 15 % to 20 %, stock market soared from 1400 to 6300, housing prices up 300 % again in 2007. and forced CPBC 6 times rate hike, 14 time raise bank deposit ratio to remove excessive liquidity from housing stock markets wealth gain, stock prices plunged 50 %, housing prices still up 13 %, despite housing sales slump,
I warned on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into this summer despite aggressive rate cuts, drag economy into recession, stock market bear correction.
We still have one third cities housing prices continue growing bubble, making bigger bubbles despite housing sales slump and doubling foreclosure , mounting job cuts, slump inn consumer confidence.This proactive, structural US national and regional housing prices, and mortgage defaults simulation forecast years, ahead national , regional housing price.
So, the answer is yes, Asset prices can be identified and asset price bursts, credit, financial crisis can be avoided by a decisive , independent central bank applying proactive structural decision simulators and predictive monetary policy, economic, fiscal policy control the bubble growth, before it getting too big.
Theseresults have been presented to 12 countries central bank governors, risk management conferences last 12 years, covering the causes, oset, dpread, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis and asset prices bubble burst. details on www.osawh.com/riskm.html www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 24 2008 11:26AM

Recent banking, finance, housing share aggressive bull rebound (gained 30- 50 %) reacting to short covering and bull speculation on SEC restriction naked short
resulted excessive overbought in these sectors.we are just half way to housing price slump and stock market bear correction which will be extended to 2009 despite government action
and passing housing bill  as I warned on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics and Market beat blog since last Sept that rate cuts and economic stimulus can not stop sub-prime crisis spread to prime and general credit crisis and housing prices slump ( 30- 50 % regional price correction, trillion dollar loss) continue into summer 2008, we drag economy into 1980 style inflationary recession in 2009 and US, global stock markets bear market 30- 50 % correction with banking, finance, housing shares down 50-70 % and spreading into all sectors .
Therefore, all long positions call must be covered by short position to avoid bear trap details can be found www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 11 2008
I warned since last Sept. on Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that US housing price slump continue through summer 2008, drag economy into 1980 style inflationary recession, banking, finance, mortgage stock entering bear market correction through summer 2008, It is premature for any bottom fishing for these distressed share.
Panic selling in FNM, FRE, LEH in speculate another Bear Stearn meltdown. These share has some speculative value, despite  rebound 50 % from their low today, in bear market rally avoided these share, until  the dust is settled down, it will retrace its low soon.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real estate Development Blog  - May 14, 2008 at 6:35 pm

From the data shown we, still have one third of cities Housing price gain, despite average price down 6.7 %.
From the past US global housing bubble bursts, we are still at the early stage of housing price correction, this is especially for high end housing, just too high to be afford. and the mounting job cuts, foreclosure will continue drag housing prices slump into this summer. may be down 30- 50 % in some cites. while the average housing price must down 20- 30 %.My US national and regional housing price can be calculated from national, local unemployment, mortgage rate, money supply growth, foreclosure data.
details can be found www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/UShouswksp.htm
One more variable to add, the stock price index in regional cities, for high tech cities, use Nasdaq, for banking finance center use DOw Jones, or banking index.
like Seatle, San Jose use Nasdaq,New York city use Dow Jones index Comment by Warren Huang - May 14, 2008 at 6:38 pm

The trouble in sub-prime crisis are due to poor housing , equities, CDO valuation and credit rating
method, which are based on 30 year old statistical, probabilistic models in pricing and default., betting on the wrong side of investment, over-optimistic over US inflation and economy and housing markets.
As I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference to top global investment, housing executives and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 %
Only my proactive structural dynamic simulation predicted months, years ahead of the emerging market trend avoided trillion dollar market loss
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog February 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Trillion dollar recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advice could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street journal Market Beat Blog- February 8, 2008 at 11:28 am

click here for2008  US inflation, recession out look and asset prices, asset allocation strategy
 click here for 2008 housing slump impact on  economic recession and equities, commodities asset prices, allocation strategy forecast                                      

 Housing Default , credit crisis  on Wall Street Real Time Economic, Market beat daily blogs  
                                                                                                      
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 29, 2007  

From my 30 years proactive, structural simulation forecast of global monetary economic, fiscal policy impact on global housing, equities, bond, commodities, gold prices:
1. Housing sales, and housing starts will continue follow housing price slump which holding up buy rate cuts supported stock market rally.We will not see the trough, the eventual tough of housing price slump and sales, start trough until stock market end its correction and crash with the housing markets prices next summer.
2. Gold price speculation only on economic fundamental, not on geopolitical events, soaring demand, plunging dollar pushed record oil commodity, gold prices, inflation not by any geopolitical crisis.
3. It is meaningless for checking stock index ending the last day of the year. Stock prices responded dynamics to the price mechanism ( fundamentals, macro-financial economy, sectors supply, demand)
not on any specific calender, regardless January or year end effect. Strong December can not guarantee strong Jan.. Housing slump will drag market into bear correction in 2008.
It is still premature for Soverign Fund (SWF) petrodollar to pick up the financial mess due to mortgage default.
These banking, finance, housing stocks write off have not seen the worst. Early summer of 2008 is much better timing.As Citi make its new low after ABU cash injection.
Morgan, Merril will find new low in the month ahead.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/SWF.htm
Comment by Warren Huang - December 29, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 27, 2007 Housing price bubble burst cycle                                                
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles .and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth.My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range.takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - November 30, 2007 at 8:24 pm According to my mortgage default model, default rate is closely related to mortgage rate, money supply, housing price, stock market price, Fed fund rate.
freeze the mortgage rate will work only if the house price and stock price both going up or freezed too.
Default rate will go up with housing and stock price definitely to plunge till next summer. Fed rate cuts and freeze will not be able to cut housing , stock price enough to reduce mortgage default for the sub-prime and jumbo loan. detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco  in-house Strategic Housing Investment, default risks early warning workshops    wh3928@yahoo.com
 5 day optimal long-short strategy for 130/30 ETF equities hedge  fund asset allocation and portfolio selections 
Full day China/  Asian  ( India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control , Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day Taiwan inflation control, country risks, housing, stocks  prices bubble burst, default crisis early warning workshop
5 Day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning , National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day Taiwan  housing bubble   control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops