Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable
Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control: Policy Impact Simulation Workshops
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact
on Global Economic,
Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis,
recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets
Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA
(RIGHT HAND )
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset
prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices
stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead, Global financial crisis
since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian
Financial Crisis Asian Financial
2000 high tech bubble burst July 2001 in Beijin
that Taiwan index
plunged to 3400, Henseng plug below 9000, facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market
crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO
SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS CONFERENCE ( FRD, ECB, China
Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that
Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands
lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on
1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to
China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in
China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing
tightening Mar. 2003
Shanghai workshops
.
USA
Australia
Asian Canada
China
Hong Kong Taiwan
Thailand
Japan S.
Korea Singapore
Malaysia
Phillipines
Indonesia
Viet-Nan
India UK/EURO
Russia/E. Europe
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
Dr. Warren Huang
accurately predicted 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech that the falling oil,
commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to US cut interest rates , to
allowed South American, Asian countries cut interest rate to precrisis level, stock
rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and Asian export growth, consumer
demand, recovery.
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted that on May 15, Macao China Peoples Banks
governor sponsored central banks governor conference that US Fed will raise fund rate in
June due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian
stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50 % corrections,
Dow Jones will test 9600, Nasdaq test 1600, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test
17,000, Bangkok index down to 400, Taiwan index down t o 4500 with asset
bubble simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's
Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences .during April and May
1999.
He also predicted in June 1999 in Barcelona on European Financial Management conference
that Argentina PESO peg to the dollar will facing currency crisis in the next recession.
It did in 2001 -2002 recession
Mexico OSA:
Monetary
Policy on inflation, GNP and economic indicators for sustainable growth and
asset price stability)
OSA simulation
macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply
growth, EURO exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,
exchange rate
Although Mexico is benefited by soaring oil prices and strong US demand to boost
it's export revenues, However the soaring oil, raw material prices and strong domestic
demand lead to soaring imports, US , Asian slowdown lead to export decline and widening
trade and current account deficit and foreign reserve at 41 billion as in South American Financial Crisis
Inflation still running at 5 % which put pressure on peso depreciation from
9.5 to 10. 9 . It will be under pressure raising interest rate from current 8
% Fortunately US slowdown will cool off Mexico economy,
inflation drop to 4,. Mexico is also
hurting by Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, currency depreciation depress the Mexico stock,
Mexico stock index will be traded between 6500-8000
manufacturing production index : decline
1.7 % hurt by US
slowdown and helped by soaring oil prices resulted export boost
Export : Helped t by US recovery and
soaring oil prices
Import : up due to raw material import prices
in retail sales
Trade deficit
: widening deficit
peso
: under pressure will be traded between 10.5- 11.3
stock index : Dow drag Mexico stocks test 7000-8500
Inflation still high at
4 %,
GDP growth rate %: hurt by declining oil price
benefited by US recovery, GDP 1- 2 %
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy
boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest
rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and
business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And
deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until
abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks
and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy
crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis,
1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced
stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth