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Global macro economic recession causes, recovery and Credit, Financial crisis   2007- 09 Cause, Impact Analysis by Proactive, Structural Simulation: Optimal Monetary Policy Trilemma Problem Solution:  achieving sustainable Macro economic GDP, unemployment  and impact on recession recovery ), capital market growth  and prices stability without asset bubbles for global strategic recession management  central bank policy workshop
by Proactive Structural Dynamic Optimal monetary , economic, fiscal, trade policy , capital markets integration, Operation Simulation Analysis ( OSA ):
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Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and   Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global economic stimulus, bailout, rate cuts, unemployment impact on consumer, business spending and housing banking, credit, financial crisis and  recession recovery industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss, stock price  bear market rebound and correction

Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo  US best ,worst cities for recession recovery

Final Phase Economic Stimulus Exit Strategy: the what , why, how and timing of removing excess liquidity, debt bubble prevent bubble burst, and credit tightening and rate hikes against double dip  inflationary recession
Optimal proactive structural Global and  US Fed and Global central banks Monetary Policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and Currency,  price stability without  Inflation,  Asset Prices bubble OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control: Integrating last 30 years global  housing, commodities, oil, equities asset prices and consumer prices into monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on GDP  and  prices stability , proactive optimal control, presented top 24 global central banks governor policy, financial risk management , macro- financial econometric conferences

Proactive Structural Analysis of Financial Crisis event in India: Financial Crisis, Asset Pricing, Risks Valuation, and Early Warning 4 Days workshops in India Delhi and Mumbai
Oct. 21- 24, 2009 for investment consultants, banking, finance, multinational manufacturing senior executives by Dr. Warren Huang

  • Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Sept. 18, 2009
    We need innovation breakthrough in macro economic and financial economic, decision modeling to upgrade current probability, statistical based models, which fail to predict the housing, equities, commodities prices bubbles impact on inflation, growth recession and daily asset prices and risks valuation mechanism resulted run away inflation and housing bubbles burst, recession, trillion doallr investment loss , banking finance bankruptcy.
    What we needed is proactive structural top down bottom up integrated macro, financial, industrial decision models, predicting last 30 years financial crisis, recession and daily asset prices and current exit strategy impact on debt, liquidity bubble burst crisis.
    details on http://www.osawh.com/econ.htm http://www.osawh.com/assetbub.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.html 
    http://www.osawh.com/debtbub.htm
  • Comment by Dr. Warren Huang to Wall Street Journal Rea Time Economics Blog Sept. 2009
    • Higher banks capital requirement alone can not stop, prevent banking, financial crisis.
      We must tracking into the root causes of current which was caused by out dated monetary policy and unreliable CAPM financial decision models which created housing bubble burst and asset prices bubble burst trillion dollar market loss due to bet on the wrong side of macro, financial economy and investment scenario.
      I have been warning global economist, market analysts in China, US, Asian, European central banks, financial market risk management conferences that global central banks, financial market decision models still using 30 year old classical monetary economic theory with monetary policy based on conventional money supply growth tie in CPI inflation and GDP , ignoring financial, industrial assets ( oil, commodities, housing, equities, bond ) prices impact on CPI, and scenario resulted underestimate the asset prices bubbles impact on macro, financial, industrial markets, resulted bubble burst, run away inflation, credit , financial crisis, recession..
      While the financial market decision models supported scenario still rely on classical capital market asset price model based on statistical, probability models fail to relate macro, financial, industrial economic impact on daily asset prices, resulted betting on the wrong scenario , trillion dollar market loss
      Even 100 % efficient market with all the market information can not stop speculators using daily investors sentiments ( government ,business, economic information ) to push overheated bubbles to burst and financial crisis.
      Only Proactive structural monetary , economic, fiscal policy to include asset pricing mechanism into inflation, interest rates, and using top down, bottom up approach in asset pricing mechanism, tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy and impact on macro, financial, industrial economic and daily asset prices and investors sentiment can track, predict last 20 year global financial crisis, recession.
      details on http://www.osawh.co,/cnetmaf.html http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
      http://www.osawh.com/econ.htm http://www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html http://www.osawh.com/value.html

Comment by Warren Huang to Yahoo finance, July 31, 2009
It is premature to celebrating that the  recession is over, by definition, over only confirmed by two consecutive GDP growth, we will facing another contraction due to the soaring jobless kept consumer spending down ( is dropped 1.2 % in second quarter even after 160 billion tax rebate!) and housing market slump after summer pick demand is over!)
plenty of downside after Aug sales and prices, based on my tracking simulation of macro financial impact on last 25 year global housing price bubble burst, I predict on Wall Street Journal Market beat blog Sept. 2007 that US housing entering housing price bubble burst, facing 30- 50 % correction through 2009 despite rate cuts any bail out.
Yes we are only half way through, due to most high end housing and cities just begening
the real correction with housing price only down 10 %
Seasonal adjusted housing prices is too weak, but still shown housing price will continue downtrend after Aug, the current seasonal demand is peaking out, which fail to reflection sufficient impact by soaring jobless rate resulted consumer confidence plunge and spending.
detials on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/macro.html
Comment to Yahoo Finance blog  June 18, 2009 on Financial regulation on crisis

Regulation alone is not the causes of all past and current global housing, credit, financial, asset price bubbles burst crisis, recession!. Based on my tracking of last 30 years causes, onset, recovery of global crisis, it all due to poor knowledge and ignoring macro monetary, economic fiscal policy impact on, financial, industrial economic asset prices. Global monetary policy maker choose to ignoring housing price bubble exist in 2003 as I warned on Nov. Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai Global, Asian Finance, Capital Market conferences that US, China facing overheated housing price bubble, it nedd to raise interest rates ( it did raise rate, just too little, too late through 2006, stop rate hikes lead to money supply growth from 5 to 8 % in 2007, for US, and 15 to 20 for China, resulted housing price soared over 400 % in some coastal cities ,I warned again 2007 in Beijing international financial risk management conference and 2008 on China fund world March 2008 Pudong, that US, China facing run away inflation due to rates cuts, housing and stock price bubbles burst, plunge 50- 70 %, Oil commodities prices doubled, and plunged 70 % through 2009 Global banking, finance, corporate CEO using 30 year old probability, statistics based financial decision modeling ,following central banks ignoring the asset prices bubbles, betting on the wrong side of asset prices, lead to trillion dollar loss in housing, stock, commodities, asset prices, the poor regulation just make the crisis spread faster, can not stop bubble from burst and trillion dollar betting on the wrong side of investment and credit rating resulted MBS, CDO,CDS hedging. details con be found on www.osawh.com/bfreform.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/econ.htm  www.osawh.com/centmaf .html www.osawh.coom/commody.html  www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 11, 12.37 PM,2009,

Stock market speculators using May retail sales improvement fail to lift the stocks due to this comes out mostly from summer travel gasoline sales with price up from 260 to 320 in May
While housing markets sales rebound in distress area due to economic stimulus 8000 tax credit for first time buyers. leading to May foreclosure drop 6 % from April. However, the soaring jobless rate at 9.4 %, ( despite job loss in May drop to 345000 and claim drop from 663000 to 601000 will not be sustainable). With unsold house inventory stood at 11 month, housing price slump continue to spread into wider area, due to soaring jobless rate. and foreclosure rate will be back to 10 % due to soaring 30 year mortgage rate from 4.6 % to 5.6 %. will drag future housing price and consumer retail spending
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html  http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 5, 12.37 PM,2009,

  • Looking over the past jobs and economic activities history, the employment in May is just reflection the seasonal nature of retail and real estate and increasing activities from Jan to May, as it entering peak season, associated to school summer vacation, and professional vacation. plus stimulus 170 billion tax rebate siice March.
    We will see this up trend peaking out in July, and start down turn , repeating last year and 2007 subprime crisis.
    We have not Yes, this is only from money managers point of overoptimistic  view, enjoy the speculative stock prices bubble on 40 % gain on US and global stock markets look at a money supply, banking, finance side benefited by 8 trillion bailout and toxic asset removal, stock purchase, making good bank bullish economic recovery indicators, created V-shape recovery.
    Whie the real economy, hosuing market continue slump with 12 % foreclosure, 32 % drop in housing prices, and9.4 % jobless rate, global deep recession ( GDP down 4 to - 19 %)
    Sooner or late this year, we will find out that we have to face the worst of this credit financial , crisis, recession full impact on stock markets.
    details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html   http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm 
    http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, May 27,, 2009 at 2:23 pm
US
have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dollar financial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -6.2 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and -5.7% for 1 Q 2009  and -1.0 in 2Q and 9.5 %% unemployment and now we in  Phase II Global deep recession ( Japan -15 % GDP, China 6.1 %, Korea -4.3 %, Taiwan -10.5 %, German -14%, UK -7.4 %, Singapore - 14 %, EURO -4.3 %, Brazil -13.6 %, Russia - 9.6 %)impact on Global banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump, export slump, and operating loss with jobless rate at --9- 10 % and business, consumer spending plunged over 5 %, will drag stock price for 20 % with Dow Jones retest 6000- 7000-8000 lows in W shape  more summer correction resulted widening mortgage,( as April foreclosure rate soared to 12 %, housing price down 32 % from 2006 peak, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
Despite money supply growth doubled, stock market two month rally 40 %, 8 trillion dollar bail out stimulus give some improvement in housing sales rebound, ISM index, tax rebate only provide partial support to consumer sentiment, , it plunge  in summer due to disappoint recovery , but not enough for raise consumer spending, retail spending , home buyer 8000 tax credit and lower interest rate payment cannot stop soaring foreclosure rate to 12 %, with 11 month unsold inventory. capital, liquidity still stay in banking finance system, with improved profit and stock prices after bail out and removing toxic asset,
Real economy and manufacturing still in deep recession, excess capacity with record 67 % utilization, falling demand and prices and profit plunge continue into next  year, unemployment rate soared to 10 %by yearend.. with 2 Q still facing -1 %  GDP contraction, -2 % for the second half   this year, while China  has 8.5 % GDP growth   for the second half due to export decline , despite 568 billion economic stimulus, 33 % growth in fixed investment, 13 % in retail sales ,with money 7 trillion loan increase in first half, still in banking, finance, stock market ( up 100 %) 50 % fail to enter real economy
The rest of Asian economy facing similar situation following US, China stocks rally with over 70 % growth, even the economy still in deep recession, with 40 % decline in export for Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong  These huge Asian stock market bubbles pushed housing prices bubble close to burst ( as China already start tightening second mortgage down payment to 40 % will follow US/China market for summer  W  shape correction , housing market continue to burst, with housing price down 50 % details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer  Dr.Warren  Huang

China  568 billion USD economic stimulus  , China 2009 first half   personal income up 9.8 % CPI down 1.1% PPI down 5.9 %,  , GDP up 7.1 % fixed investment   up 33.5 %  industrial production up 7 %   export decline 23 %with excessive liquidity ( money supply growth  doubled from 15 % to 28 % in  June 2009 )with banking loan growth of 7 trillion in the first half 2009 already leading to stock market up 75 % ( up from 1660 to 3200) , despite 70 % of first half earning facing decline and loss and only 30 % earning increase, most prices already exceed 2007 6000 point peak level and PE  of 65 approaching  2007 peak, and housing price bubble, Beijing housing prices up 30 % in the first half 2009 , with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Shenzhen housing prices reaching all time high (over 2007 peak level, leading to credit tightening in second mortgage with first down payment raised to 40 %
lHousing bubbles in Yantze, Pearl River , Beijing Bohai delta, Shenzhen with housing price up 160-500 % auto demand  up 80 %  benefited by heavy foreign capital inflow  and 500 % stock price gain in 2007,  despite credit tightening stock prices plunged 75 %,housing price only down 1.2 % 2009.

very close to Dr. Warren Huang prediction and housing bubble warning to  global investment banking, derivatives market fund managers on
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition on distressed assets summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Forex, Energy, Metal Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY

Millions of global /China management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 

5 Day Oil Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles

  • Comment by Dr. Warren Huang, to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog. May. 27, 2009
    Do not get carried away of a few improvement of home sales and ISM, that is just seasonal factors of increasing demand going into summer travel and housing boom peak sales ( school off for moving) The worst of mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession is not over for Bank of America, Citi and banking industry, despite trillion dollar bail and removing toxic asset and buying banking stocks , trillions dollar additional writedown will continue pouring in from soaring jobless rate, consumer, business loan defaults, foreclosure rate at 9- 10 % and falling housing prices through out this year.
    Most, economists and even Roubini are influenced by the stock market rally , excessive banking finance liquidity , getting convinced that recovery in insight!
    No quick recession recovery insight. It is pre matures and over optimistics to call the quick recovery. current optimism has been bssed on tow month stock market rally and trillions dollar bailout and stimulus resulted doubling in money supply growth resulted excessive liquidity in banking, stock market, leading to investor optimism and a few housing sales, ISM data. However these signs are not sustainable, as long as continued housing price slump, buildup in unsold house inventory, soaring foreclosure, jobless rate will drag consumer, business spending , leading to continue widening in consumer debt, loss in stocks and home liquidity wealth, repeating Japans 1990 housing bubble burst resulted 10 year recession /slow growth ,leading to prolonged recession through this year. Especially current market rally is repeating last year second quarter tax rebate resulted consumer, business spending rebound resulted GDP growth of 2.8 %, will not happen this year, as already seen in April retails sales plunge. and stock market will going through W shape correction this summer as disappointed U shape recession recovery drag economy into US and global recession early next year details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Despite rate cuts, even to -5 %, Housing bottom and   credit crisis ends only after the end of recession, the jobless rate peaking out. With 11 month of unsold housing inventory and recession drag us into next year, after economy is out of recession. There is no incentive for hoe buyer in falling housing prices and can not afford the low monthly income with interest rate only small part of it), rate cut to - 5 % can not, will not help push loan demand up. Despite some distressed housing are ( with price down over 30 %) like northern  California, Florida housing sales pick due to bargain hunting , most of countries, like New York, Seattle, Boston continue to slide into 20- 30 % decline, drag national price plunge 32 % from 2006 peak to 30- 40 % decline early next year. details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.html
ˇ@
Comment by Dr. Warren Huang to Wall Street Journal Market Beat and Real Time Economic Blog 12:03 pm May 18, 2009   Warren Huang wrote:
ˇ@
According my two master hands controlling global macro-financial GDP,stock index ( right hand) and industrial sectors supply demand, pricing, corporate performance, stock prices (left hand) Today  market rebound just bargain hunting those beaten finance, banks, retail shares. Up to this moment, stimulus only work on and stay on right master hand ,the macro, banking, finance systems, while the rest of the economy, the industrial sector (left hands0 s are still in deep recession , The bull market come only when these two master hands felt the impact of stimuls impact The problem of credit, financial crisis, recession remain, not follow few day stock correction to go away. continue  soaring foreclosure ( Calif soared to 13 %, some area to 24 %, NY and others up to 8 %), due to falling housing prices ( down 26 %), despite local hosuing sale rebound., falling retail sales, despite tax rebate, soaring jobless at 8.9 % soem are over 12 %)will continue into summer, falling capicity utilization at record 67 % , due to weakening demand and prices PPI down 3.7%), with only money supply double from 5 to 11 %, stocks price up 37 %.,global recession from GDP contraction , despite ISM supply chain index improvement. Japan 12 % to EURO 4 %) poor corporate earning just hoping stimulus will help pulling out recession We are only hale way to this crisis and recession, while stock market speculators are celebrating bull markets. details on http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/industfine.htm

Comment by Dr. Warren Huang, to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog.

Despite these five encouraging banking, finance indicators improvements, We are still facing weakening real industrial economy, dropping demand, and prices ( PPI ex-food down 3.7 %,, falling housing prices, soaring job cuts.
We are in the phase II of financial crisis, Recovery in banking finance.
Stock market 30 % rebound, misguided us into overoptimistic over the recovering of banking, financial crisis, recovery.
The 8 trillion excess will stay in banking, finance sectors gradually eating away by continued housing price slump resulted mortgage default bad loan and credit card default due to soaring job cuts and business loan default due to plunging consumer, business demand in deep recession.
The banking, finance sectors credit financial crisis will not be fully recovered until 6 month after consumer , business demand rebound,
housing market slump and job cuts stabilize, and economy out of recession. that mean next year.
It is premature for any bull market stock rebound, until economy out of recession!
details on predicted on this blog and Wall Street Journal 2007 market beat and housing development that US housing bubble burst with housing prices down minimum 30 % through 2009, despite rate cuts, bail out,.
8 trillion dollars bail out and buying distress, toxic asset, saving mortgage industry, since last year, US housing price continue to drop as I predicted.
Everyone from central banks, banking, investment banks, home buyers need good lesion of industrial finance, tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial (housing) supply, demand
and prices ( bubbles) for the what , why, how and timing of housing
investment and sustainable monetary policy for growth and stability.
I warned on 2003 Asia, China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shanghai that US, China facing housing bubble.
and warned again on 2007 Peking University Nobel Econometric conference, Wall Street Journal blog that US, and global housing price bubble burst, down 30- 50 % through 2009, drag gloobal stocks into 50- 70 % correction and deep recession.
details on
http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
http://www.osawh.com/toxicasset.htm
http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
http://www.osawh.com/macro.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDPin 4 Q 2008 and 1 Q 2009 ( including inventory) -3.8 % exclude GDP) and 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     US GDP shrink -3.8 % 4 Q 2008    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged rom 12 % to 6.8 % will extend to first half around 6 %, gradually pick up second hald to 8 % 2009

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss

for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang

Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy
   
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang

 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
 
                 by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management     
Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                           
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008

                                  
Reservation  
for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com

 warned on Yahoo finance blog and Wall Street Journal market beat blog earlier last year the Housing market slump drag economic iinto deep recession continue into 2009 , resulted trillion dollar banking, finance mortgage, investment loss, plunging consumer spending, ISM index plunge below 36, will drag IT industry sales and earning , stock price 50- 70 % bear matket correction. Recent market rally over 20 %, with renewed speculation over strong IT, high tech are exptremely overpriced, ignored sales, earning plunge 50 % through 2009. NASDAQ MUST PLUNGE TO 1150- 1200 TEST RECESSION LOW in the month ahead. details on www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that
US and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 rate cuts, bail out, provide banks, finance excess liquidity will not, can nto stop housing price slump and recession ( with Oct . 2008 20 city Schiller  price index down 19 % http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation ), drag US and  global economy into 1980 style deep double dip recession  stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 -70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 6000- 7000, NASDAQ test 1100- 1250, S&P test 600-  700 low, oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to 30ˇAGas oil from 1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ˇ^as Fed agree that global economy  enter deep recession through 2009, despite rate cuts to zero, US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out fail to 
to stabilize credit crisis , there is no economic recovery till late 2009,   with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out  and infrastructure job creation program. US spend 8 trillion bailout  fighting crisis , recession  pointed out by Nobel prize winner Krugman  http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2 , hopefully OBAMA/s 775 billion dollar economic stimulus plan to create 4 million jobs in the next two years  will pull economy out of recession and cutting mounting job loss  http://change.gov/agenda/economy_agenda/

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss

Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, 2009 Hong Kong Provate equities Merger/Acquisition financing summit  on Monetary, regulary ,economic stimulus policy impact on China/US distressed asset Acquisition and financing
and  in March   2009  and on monetary, econoic stimulus policy impact  on    China/US economic, financial  market , forex,  currency  commodities, equities derivatives price mechanism and  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge, supply chain cost reduction  Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy

               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang

 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
 
                 by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management     
Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                           
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008

                                  
Reservation  
for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis , capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fight

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 85- 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure program maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 1.2% in Dec.2008 %
China  Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, drag China GDP plunged to 6.8 % 4Q 2008,will test 6 % first half 2009  and stay above 8 % second half 2009 due to and China 568 billion infrastructure and 10 industrial sector stimulus  program maintain 2009 GDP at  7.5 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500-3450 through  09     until economy softlanding

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat blog - December 22, 2008 at 3:20 pm
The year of 2008 should be remembered as the wildest betting on the wrong direction of economy, inflation , GDP, housing, bubble, stock and commodities bubble burst.
We came in as high expectation over aggressive rate cuts, tax rebate betting housing subprime crisis recovery, no inflation, no recession, no stock, oil, commodities bubble burst bear market 50- 70% bear correction ( we assume asset prices only holding in 10 % range as Dow Jones, rally one after the other stay above 12000..
Everything went into wrong direction as I predicted on Wall Street Journal real time economics blog Sept. 2007 that housing price slump continue into 2009, with 1980 style double dip recession, stock, oil, commodities asset bubble burst 50- 70 % bear correction ( oil price soared from 70 to 147 in July 2008 due to rate cuts, tax rebate ) and GDP plunged into deep recession in current quarter after second quarter 2.8% due to tax rebate).
We have seen big banks, mortgage , investment bank loss trillion dollar in mortgage, MBS, derivative, hedging resulted Failureof Merrill, Lynch, Citigroup, bankruptcy of Bear Stearn, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG , now big three auto, and trillion dollar loss in US and global investment banks, and widening  loss continue into 2009 despite trillions dolllar bailout.
All these happen because global central banks, banks, finance ignored the burst of unprecendented super housing price bubble burst resulted commodities, oil, asset bubbles, global housing, credit, financial, crisis, deep recession through 2009, and getting worse.. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- December 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm

We will see much worse job loss figure, as we have not been through the worst of this housing, credit, financial, crisis, recession. The full impact on soaring job loss, stocks market, commodity, housing equities loss will drag further consumer, business spending, drag housing equities prices further for new low, forced additional multinational cutting jobs as global entering prolonged recession next year. details on www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com.recession.html

Almost each day, we are adding to this long list of bailout programs, trillions dollar caused by poor financial decision and , betting on the wrong side of housing, and investment price .speculation over structured finance products related to mortgage investment MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS, ABS, and hedging. I warned this blog and Wall Street Journal Sept. 2007, that subprime crisis will be spread into credit , financial crisis, and excessive rate cuts, bail out can not stop the burst of super housing price bubble, drag us into 1980 style double dip recession through 2009. I predicted trillions dollar will be needed to fill this mess, till next year. We need proactive structural simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro, financial, industrial economic and daily financial , housing, market investment , risk valuation. We need more on this proactive structural approach our problem, causes of credit, housing, financial, crisis, recession. Job creation is the key to stop housing market slump, tax rebate only create short term spending resulted inflationary and die away afterword like March rebate only boost second quarter GDP, can not stop slump thereafter.. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/riskm.html  www.osawh.com/ABS.html

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- December 3, 2008 at 10:57 am
Based on my 30 year tracking last 30 years global economy, financial, housing, commodities asset prices bubble burst and its impact on global economic recession, credit, financial crisis, This recession is much worse than any previous one including the great depression.
We are facing the US and global super housing prices bubble burst , (out of 7 years low credit expansion boom. It is further complicated by structured finance products ABS, MBS, CDO, CMBS and hedging on the wrong direction of investments resulted trillions loss in housing, equities, and derivatives.
Trillions dollars home and equities wealth loss spread into global recession, drag US and global consumer, business demand plunge
to new low impact on serices and manufacturing activities will continue well into next year driving unemployment over 8 %.
Despite aggressive rate cuts, trillions dollars bail out of mortgage, banking, finance, consumer, it is still fighting decling housing and stock markets continue next year, until unemployment and housing price slump stabilize.
what worse is we are unprepared for this complicated situation in economic, business, financial decisions and crisis, risk early warning.
we are still using 30 old statistical, probability based CAPM ( Capital Asset Pricing Models and macro, financial , industrial economic pricing
in investment and supply chain decision tools, using scenario analysis ( which never exist) , chasing , speculating on the ecnomic, financial market future, resulted betting on the wrong direction of investment,
we are in a vicious cycle, continue generating new problems , new loss in investment and hedging.
details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/ABS.html www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/recession.html
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog - December 1, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I warned on this blog Sept. 2007 that housing market slump continue spread into credit, financial crisis, aggressive rate cuts, stimulus can not stop recession, in will only create double dip recession. there, our first dip in 4Q 2007, we are now entering second dip recession, due to the stimulus package delay the first one one quarter later. Hopefully , we will not have to face third dip by too much stimulus, bail out before the housing, stock market correction is over. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 36, ISM manufacturing purchaser and service sector  index plunge to 37 and jobless rate to 6.7% and Dow Jones plunged 45  % third quarter GDP contract 0.5 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering 1980 style double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 6 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact of business, consumer spending decline due to 6.7 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 45 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.

Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that
Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70ˇAGas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts , 700 billion bailout. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.

Comment by Warren Huang - May 30, 2008 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics at 1:13 pm

  Rescue Bear Stearn case looks like similar LTCM, But we are facing much more complicated , instability in uncertain back ground of continued housing price slump and complicated highly leveraged structural financial products anad poor rating methods (MBS,CDO) using oversimplified betting on the wrong side of. investment.
The worst of the crisis is not over until housing price slump is over, it is not that easy to stop by rate cuts.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/finstab1.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - April 3, 2008 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog at 8:52 pm

 In tracking last 30 years global monetary policy, housing, energy asset prices You can easily find that 1980, 1990 inflation recession all caused by energy and housing price bubbles burst, while 2000 by  IT equities price bubble burst.
Excessive rate cuts, money supply, easy credit , ignoring asset prices growth resulted excessive liquidity wealth gain, bubble burst casuing current US mortgage, credit crisis, is spreading from US to China, India, Hog Kong, Korea, Taiwan, and UK, Ireland, Netherland
Central banks monetary policy target on core CPI , excluding, food, energy and housing, equities, commodity
price have been the major causes for last 30 years global financial crisis and economic recessions.
details can be found www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm   www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/commody.html

Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of US Fed/global central banks Optimal Monetary ,Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation, unemployment, GDP, Assets (Stocks, Bond, Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles Identification, inflation, deflation, burst, recovery, early warning , performance guidance and Control in  achieving optimal growth and price stability  中文 (Chinese)
 The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  20 industrial sectors demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences  
Thousand proactive structural proprietary models tracking , forecasts year, month ahead last 20 years Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on US, Asian, European, South American, Russia  macro economics inflation, GDP, consumer spending indicators, financial economic interest rates, currency, capital markets  prices, industrial economic supply, demand, commodities prices mechanisms, trade economics import/export pricing Integration, Interaction for root causes, onset, recovery and early warning and prevention of NPL of global financial, currency , energy, asst price bubble crisis. presented to 20 global central bank governors , financial risks management conferences since 1998.  
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang who pioneer OSA proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products prices simulation, patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, millions copies circulated to 78 countries
He directed 1000 senior, graduate global strategic management and industrial economic students developed the integrated global economics and capital market systems out of last 20 years IMF monthly statistics and global  economics and capital markets data( Bloomberg, Reuters,SINA, Yahoo Finance, implemented for Taiwan 300, 000 import/exporter members daily 100 countries currency, 5000 energy, commodities, and products import/export strategy, and US, China, Taiwan 15 cites 30 million TV, radio HNW, institutional investors, offered thousands global strategic investment workshops for global energy, banking finance CEO, executives from 78 countries

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, Structural finance MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.

Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Structural Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that
Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession will continue into 2009, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70ˇAGas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, gold price from 1000 to 550, cotton from 80 to 44 ˇ^as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment to Wall Street Journal  Economic, Market Beat, Energy, Deal, Housing Development Blogs:
 OSA global strategic management  economic, market today blogs      www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 
 
 
Integrating macroeconomic control,  inflation, financial economic  interest rates, currency,  20 industrial sectors economics demand, supply, prices markets forces mechanism and WTO global trade economics into  daily global macro, financial, industrial, trade economic activities and its interactions

Optimal Trilemma solution by Proactive Structural Dynamics Global Economic Systems Simulation, Integration OSA
tracking monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on

Macroeconomic OSA    Financial Economics OSA   Industrial Economics OSA      Trade Economics OSA
inflation, GDP,            Capital Market prices          industrial sectors demand        commodity ,products
unemployment             Currency, interest rates     supply, commodity, asset        import/export prices
consumer spending                                              prices bubble mechanism        global currency prices

=======================================================================================
Global Economic and Monetary Policy Interaction, integration OSA
USA   Asian China  Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan    S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil   UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe 


Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market , Housing, Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998
.  
 
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macro economic cycle and Financial Markets Dynamics OSA
Development and implementation OSA/Global and OSA/US simulation systems
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy, Oil prices shocks Impact on Macro economics Risks Simulations
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth: OSA—Global Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation
Dynamic tracking simulation of last 1980, 1990, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on inflation, old and new economy corporate earning and global stock prices,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Consumer spending growth %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate, unemployment rate )

OSA/EURO for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation:: These formulas tracking the EURO 11 member countries monetary policy inter-bank interest rate converged to 3 % and with 4.5 % money supply growth to meet 2 % inflation and 2.5 % GNP in 1999 and Asian recovery, US soaring stocks, housing market wealth effect pushed consumer, business demand for EURO export, weak EURO ,pushed oil price to 37, 6 rate hike resulted slowdown in business, consumer spending , plunging prices, corporate profits, stocks prices to cool off US economy, drag NAPM from 58 to 41.2. GNP from 7.3 % to 0.5 %, EURO money supply growth exceeds 4.5 % to 6 %, inflation 2.8 % and GDP of 3.5 % lead to EURO 7 interest rate hike in 2000 to tightening the money supply growth to 4.5 % and inflation to 2 %, GDP to 2.8 % , falling oil price pushed EURO from 0.83 to 0.95 cut Into EURO export and corporate earning and stock prices retreat 15 %

OSA/US for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation

These equations predicted 1998 winter US three interest rate cuts to 4.5 %, provide m2 money supply growth rate expanded to 10.5 %, and dollar plunge 20 % to boost export Dow stock index soared form 7200 to 9600 and provide 4 th quarter 1998 GNP 6 %. to prevent US from danger of deflation caused by Global Financial Crisis related credit crunch, it also predicted 1993 deflation: money supply dropped to ? % even the fund rate cut to 3 %, led to US GNP contracted to 3 %... US, inflation up to 3.5 %, GDP of 7.3 % in winter 1999 due to Y2K excessive money supply lead to Dow soaring to 11400, Nasdaq doubled to 5100, these wealth effect further pushed consumer spending to 8 % and tripled oil prices 2000 , soaring property prices 4 th quarter 2000 GDP slowdown to 1.1 % inflation still at 3.6 % despite Fed 6 interest rate hikes , However, it finally cooled off in 2001 first quarter facing recession threat, forced Fed cut rate by 1.5 %, US consumer, business spending, GNP, Dow Jones simulation chart can be found on chart 1-4, more results can be found on my full workshop tomorow.
US housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted 2000, US 6 year economic expansion since 1995, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 50 % with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
US super housing price bubble burst out of 2002- 2007  6 year low interest expansion with housing prices up 300 % in coastal areas. resulted 2007 subprime crisis extend into 2008  start plunge 16.5 % in 2008 resulted  credit, financial crisis and recession into 2009
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. And benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 11500 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply led to strong Nikkei rebound from 11600 to 13500,will facing resistance around 13000-14000. It can do little to stop global slowdown, Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 4.9 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980’s as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound from 13000 to 18000 in 1999,. However it down 10 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 11500 in 2001, it plunged from  1900 to 7000 in  Oct. 2008 US credit crisis resulted global recession fear  simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the current Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994’s peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150 billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO this year. China will feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed under 10 % correction predicted by the author tracking of China macro, financial trade economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries trends, profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,.and housing prices soared 300 % as Shanghai index soared 6 time to 6200  in 2007, money supply growth soared to 23  %
dewspite Peoples Bank 6 time rate hikes, 16 time bank deposit rate hike to 17.5 %. in 2008
 
Contact :  whuang@osawh.com    Whuang3928@aol.com   Fax : 1-510-524-4484(  San Francisco, USA)
                   
Copyright2007 osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang

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