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Global Proactive Structural Strategic  Corporate reform, IPO, ADR, MBO, Foreign Listing  performances and pricing, investment strategy, Bubbles Earning  Warning   (Two master hands controlling  Global  IPO, ADR, MBO  stock prices)

_by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang  osawhh@sina.com  __wh3928@yahoo.com ____________________
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation, tracking of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global industrial sectors demand, prices corporate reform, IPO, performance,  earning, stocks prices

 Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that oil prices will soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006, soaring US, China  inflation  will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265,  metals , commodity continue making new high , drive  CPI to 4.3 % in March and  higher in the month ahead. US  Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing correction  give up all 2006 gain ahead.
Global IPO prices are following overheated global   stock indices are overpriced   peaking out and facing correction
China 3 billion investment in US Blackstone Group (BX):  despite BX enjoyed US recent real estate, communication, retail  boom, its performance has been peaking out . IPO soared from 28 to 36, it will be testing below 30 due to   US facing inflationary slowdown dragging BX major real estate ( subprime and falling housing demand and prices) and weakening retail investments, sharp competitions in its communications group, and peaking out in energy commodity performance),
China investments still subject to currency exchange loss due to RMB appreciation  

OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset  performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning,  prevention  of assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email  wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Nov 2003 to 2000 QFII executives on Asian/China capital market conferences, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin that China ADR/IPO  shares soared 80 % visit www.osawh.com/GADR.html for global ADR and IPO pricing, investment strategy
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June) inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.

This column  warned 2000-2003  that all IPO )will be plunge 50-90  % (except energy) below their IPO prices due to economic slowdown resulted widening loss,  while China  oil  ADR stocks, SNP,   PTR and CNOOC stay  50-80 % above IPO prices due to rising oil prices.

IPO prices have been related market sentiment ( Nasdaq and home country stock index) and industrial  fundamental (earning)
Despite recent  IPO prices  rally due to Nasdaq, and global stock index rebound (investor sentiment at all time high since 1987 ) lead to renewed speculation of IPO prices are overheated and bubbles in biotech, energy, internet sectors  formed   again, will be ready for 50 % correction as Nasdaq making correction after summer peaking out

All stocks,  Blue chips, IPO, the hi techs and internet IPO stock prices are determined by supply, demand, and investors sentiment, to put more specifically, are related to central banks monetary policy impact on the economy and the financial markets, or the general economic demand, supply, prices, and   corporate earning,

Dr. Warren Huang have developed thousands of these relationship for tracking last 20 years global economy, stocks IPO, ADR, foreign listing   prices with average error below 1.5 %, It predicted the Dow crash in 1987,  new high of 11700    crash to  7700,  IT and biotech IPO crashed from 300 to 5 ,IPO and internet bubble burst in Apr 2000, after Greenspan 6 interest rate hikes to cooloff overheated stocks, housing markets resulted wealth effect, excessive consumer, business demand. Nasdaq plunge 75 % to 1250, Dow plunge to  7700, most  IPO   stocks soared 2000 %, plunged 65 % to 90 %  some to penny stocks, AND even 90 % BELOW THEIR  IPO PRICES

For  High tech  stock index are related to US   business spending growth, interest rate and investor sentiment (Nasdaq index), as for individual  IPO stock prices, they are related to their industrial  stock and Nasdaq index (investor sentiment in  high tech  ) and corporate revenue and earning outlook (depend on industry trend and regional economy, for those with no revenue and millions/billion debt, deficit will plunge below 5 and some into penny stocks like Global Crossing go fo bankrupcy (China economy for China.com) it took off from 25 to 130 reacting to China US trade agreement to WTO and China permission US investment in China internet industry and plunge to  3 as US  IT  industry entering recession bubble burst,  sina.com   follow Nasdaq soared to 5100,  soared to 58 and dip belwo 2 as Nasdaq plunged to 1250

All these relationships indicating internet, IT and biotech  IPO stocks are extremely volatile and overpriced, We accurately predicted last Dec on sina.com and this website that all these bubble will burst: down 50 - 90%  correction earlier this year:

IPO investment strategy:
Dr. Huang's two master hands predicted   in July  2000 that IPO prices are extremely polarized with serious over bought bubbles in high fliers fiber optics, networks stocks like SDL over 400, JDSU, ARIBA, ITWO over 180, JNPR over 243, which are subject to more than 80 % correction to below 100 ,( It did plunge to 40  as Nasdaq plunge to1550  while some oversold to penny stocks
Akamai down from 327 to 28, Rumbus plunge from 445 to 20,  commerce one from 271 to 16, Checkpoint from 279 to 34 the biotech genome star Celera plunge from 250 to 25following Nasdaq plunge from 5100 to 1200.
These stock are still under corrections in the weeks ahead: all stocks with poor earning outlook will be dropped to below 50, deflated and compressed to 20- 40 range. Those with widening loss will be down to below 10. , like China's internet IPO Sohu.com, Netease.com plunged 90 % below IPO prices to 3, I recommended to 2001 Beijin IBC oil upstrem/donstream investment strategy that   China PetroChina  PTR  IPO at 17 while oil price plunged to 17, will follow oil price to 100 . PTR soared to 275 last year while oil price soared to 100
He also predicted Oct  2002 on Asian Business Forum to global central banks, banking, finance executives in Kuala Lumpur that  Hi tech stocks and IPO will follow Nasdaq retest
1200 in March 2003 and rebound to 2200 in late 2003, with IPO prices doubled due to peaking sentiment. as Yahoo soared from 9 to 50.
He warned that all IPO and high tech stocks overheated, subject to 20- 30 % correction and he warned again last Sept on Wall Street journal market beat that all high flier IPO liked Goog and PTR will plunge 30-50 % in 2008.
 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market IPO  prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious housing bubble repeat 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 10200- 10900, Nasdaq  1950- 2150 , Taiwan index  post election bubble burst retest 6000 rebound to- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1790, Shenzhen 3700- 4250, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 102- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks  rebound to new high in the second quarter 2004.
US IPO prices will follow Nasdaq 20- 30 % correction, rebound  and peaking out in summer
2004, following 2000 style bubble burst, making 30- 50 % correction in the third quarter 2004.

Recent Biotech and , IT and energy IPO prices OSA and forecasts  
US  2004 IPO listing pricing , investment outlook,  early warning 
Name                            earning outlook                                         near term stock prices

  Over 30 million China, Taiwan government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, fund managers, analyst, traders, investors have been benefited by my analysis on China's 12 cities , Taiwan TV, radio daily, weekly commentary , and workshops since 1987