Nasdaq and top Global upstream/downstream  Infotech 100  Sales, Proftis Margin , Stock Prices Forecasts and Early Warning , Investment strategy
Monetary Policy Impact on Global High-tech strategic OSA
two master hands beat daily global info tech 100 market prices forecasts

A. Information Technology/Internet applications
Knowledge Management based Internet e-commerce, e-business strategy and Digital Economy:
Internet infrastructure communication hardware, software supporting internet
Knowledge management? in e-commerce, e-business in direct sales, integrated supply chain applications
Information Knowledge Management for IT upstream/downstream hardwares (IC chips , PC, Server, periphericals), decision support systems
Internet/Information Techonology company IPO prices simulation, investment strategy
Internet/ IT company pre/post merger acquisition performance simulation analysis, strategy

Contact : website: www.osawh.com  email: wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com

When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what he has been lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  warning in 1999 that US and global IT stock facing bubble burst, plunge 70 % to 90 %,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and blue chips banking shares  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1650- 2050 , Taiwan index  5500- 6000, Henseng 11500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1450, Shenzhen 3000-3500- Euro : 1.18- 1.29 , Yen 108- 115
US Fed  Monetary Policy on US inflation, GNP and economic indicators, Nasdaq IT industrial sector sales, profits growths>
Dr. Huang warned 100 multinational oil CEO, banking, QFII senior executives in Beijin . Feb and Nov 2005 on Asian Business Forum China oil, gas conferences that oil prices will be soared to 69 from 45 in 2005  and 69 again in Jan. 2006, US Fed will rate hikes till summer 2006, IT , blue chips  stocks are overheated for 30- 50 % correction, Dow  will plunge to 10,000 from 11000, Nasdaq from 2370 to 2050

US Fed  Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Nasdaq IT industrial sales, profit , stock prices
US  2003- 2006  repeat 1998- 2000 asset bubbles OSA : ( right master hands OSA)
US 13 rate cuts to 1 % and second tax cuts led to money supply growth  of 9 % productivity and GDP growth 8.4 %, third quarter, consumer spending up 7.9 %  business spending up 18 %, retails sales growth 7.6 % Dec 2003 ,east, west coasts  housing prices soared 66 % since 2001, plunging dollar  and excessive consumer demand  led to oil, commodity reaching 19 year high 9 oil, cotton, copper, platinum ,soybean prices doubled,  despite CPI up only 1.2 %( exclude energy and food) , ISM index soared from 39 to 66, consumer confidence soared to 103 ,  corporate profit soared 76 % in the final quarter 2003, investor bullish index higher than 1987 crash, Nasdaq soared 80 %, Dow up 26 % in 2003.  but jobless rate stay at 5.6 %,  with 24 millions loss jobs, 117000 job cuts in Jan,2004, despite 112,000 new job added, All the early  warning sign of asset bubbles facing burst,  UK, Australia, ECB, Korea and China all raised rate or tightening credit to deflate the bubbles. US  Fed is determined to create jobs, create 2.4 million jobs to delay action on rate hike and deflate the asset bubbles as its did in the previous bubble bursts 1998-2000
US and global IT bubble burst recovery process is slow, due to sharp competition, price cutting, as Intel already announced cut its P4 processor prices by 32 % and continued weakness in other sectors of IT,
despite 4 Q 2003  all industry profit up 76 %, 18 % increase in business spending, 7 % consumer spending
due to excessive tax and rate cuts, oil, commodity prices doubled.
2006 forecast :
Soaring oil, metal prices and housing , consumer, business demand pushed inflation and labor cost, forced US Fed raise hikes till summer 2006 summer cut consumer and business demand and resulted IT inventory built up, prices cutting, profit decline, stocks plunge 30- 50 %
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AOL- Fortune  top 10 stocks
Name                               earning outlook                                                 near term stock prices
IBM                               slowdown, competition                                              70- 84
GOOG                           growth slowdown                                                    350- 450
Schwab                         shrinking margin due to market slump                    30-50
Genetech                     Low profit margin, market share                                 76-88
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter  Shrinking margin due to market correction      40-60    
NOK                           competition and slowdown in sales profit growth         13-16
Nortel                             competition huge loss in acquisition                          3- 5

Business Week  Global top 100 Info tech

Stock Name :         sales earning outlook                            
INTC                      slowdown  and  competition                                                 20- 25-
NVDA         sharp competition from INTC, ATI, Xbox slowdown                         21- 25
ORCL                      slowdown in data base, sharp competition                         10- 13
Taiwan Semi         slowdown in sales profit growth                                           6-  10-
Sun Micro               slowdown in sales profit growth                                         3-  5
Micron Tech      slowdown in sales profit growth                                               13- 16--
Gateway            slowdown in sales profit growth                                              
Nortel                      excess capacity                                                                    3 - 6
Corning                 Overpriced     slowdown in profit growth                               12 -15
Broadcom                      growth slowdown                                                         30- 42
China Telecom        shrinking margin due to price cutting                                 20- 24
LSI                              slowdown in sales profit growth                                      10-15
TXN                          slowdown in sales profit growth                                         25- 35
Cypress Semic      slowdown in sales profit growth                                           20-   25
EMC                         slowdown in sales profit growth                                         10- 15
AMCC                         slowdown in sales profit growth                                       6- 9
 SBC                         slowdown in sales profit growth                                         23- 28
ADCT                          slowdown in sales profit growth                                       3-  5
CSCO                      slowdown in sales profit growth                                          15- 18
HPQ                           low growth, low margin                                                     20-30
Charter Semi       slowdown in sales profit growth                                               2-   5
Nextel                   competition                                                                             24- 30
AWE                      competition   / merger                                                           11- 15
Yahoo                     slowdown in growth                                                            30- 36
DELL                        shrinking margin                                                                  25- 30
AAPL(Apple)           Slowdown in PC sales                                                          60- 80-    
Sirius Satellite          competition                                                                            2- 5
MSFT                        shrinking margin                                                                  22- 27
 AMAT                      price weakness ,competition                                                16- 18
                                                                  
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed will raise fund rate in June  1999  and Nov ,1999 that US and global IT stock facing bubble burst, plunge 50- 90 %, Nasdaq plunged to 1200 
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth

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