Global
, Emerging Markets Strategic Structural Housing, Energy, Commodity, Trade Financial Economics and its
Downstream 20 Industrial Sectors Finance and Strategic Supply Demand Chain Cost
Reduction Operations Simulation
Analysis (OSA) , Forecasts Maximize Risks Adjusted Return two-day in- House Workshops
Chinese (中文)
Proactive Structural Forecast months,
year ahead of the last 30 years causes, onset, spread, recovery of global
energy , housing bubble burst crisis, mortgage credit, financial crisis,
recession supply bottleneck and early warning,
prevention, energy , commodity policy and manufacturing process de-bottlenecking,
avoided trillion dollar default risks and saving billion dollar supply chain
costs
by OSA global strategic management
, industrial finance ,20 industrial sectors asset demand, price mechanism pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang
Global Strategic Management OSA forecasts global and emerging market
energy and downstream prices trend month
OSA
ahead capitalize investment opportunities, avoided trillion dollar
market loss
achieve sustainable profit control, market shares in financial crisis
www.osawh.com
About OSA Products & Services
Nobel Prize dream
Methodology
Housing Finance: Proactive
Structural US and Global Housing Price and Defaults and Financing Risk Forecast
Energy Finance: Proactive
Structural Demand Oil, Energy Pricing and energy financing risks OSA
Trade Finance: Proactive
Structural Import/Export Pricing and Trade financing Risk OSA
Structural Commodity Finance: Proactive Structural Demand Side Commodity Pricing
, and Strategic financing risks management
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy
impact on Global Housing, Equities,
Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices
Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on
Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage,
Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks
impact on Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking,
credit, financial crisis and industrial
sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
for
Asian
private equities,
leverage finance acquisition summit , Feb
16- 17, Hong, Kong by Euromoney
China
Forex, Energy, Metal Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial
Crisis, Recession Risks Derivatives
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China,
March, 2009
by EUROMONEY
Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging
2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
program China
China/US 2009 Housing,
Financial Crisis Impact
on Recession,,
and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on
Economy ,
Capital Markets Forecast by
By
Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar
Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives Allocation Strategy
by Dr.
Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt
Regency,
Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China
multiclass (Oil,
commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset
pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive
Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang
Post-
Conference Master Class
Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation
Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism
and China/Global
Fund World,
Asset Allocation
2008,- 2009
by
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global
Strategic Management
Proactive Recession
Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4-
6, 2008
Reservation
for your in house
workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
5-Day OSA Proactive Structural Real Time
Commodity Market Prices Forecast and Strategic SCF ( Structural Commodity
Finance) in Global
Trade and, Financial
Supply
Chain Cost Reduction
and
Value Chain Optimization and Basel II Risks Early Warning
Masterclass
in- House workshop
Chinese
Masterclass lecturer :
Dr. Huang accurately predicted May
20, June 29 that Oil price will challenge 145 on
July 4 th and profit
taking to 125- 145 before labor day
(Over
30 years experience with proactive structural global multinational oil, downstream, metal,
agricaulturals commodities market price simulation, forecasts by proactive structural strategic
simulation of integration of manufacaturing supply chain cost optimization into
import/ export financing, value chain optimization and Basel II and corporate
governance scandal risks early warning.
tracking accurately
last 20
years 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products, and 40 export countries ,
published on US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control, Information Systems
Handbook, 1993-2005 applied by 80 countries, 1600 multinationals.
Thousands
English/Chinese
articles, 100 millions copies
, China/US/Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 million fund managers, HNW investors,
and 300,000 Taiwan import/export members. Thousands Asian, US, European
, multinational manufacturing, banking, finance CEO, executives masterclass workshops
. 4 millions global executives, academics visited
www.osawh.com website and
www.osawh.com/tradehm.html
Provide the latest fundamental, quantitative, strategic commodity, raw material
competitive pricing,risk analysis, maximize value chain risks adjusted return
and market share)
in-house CEO, Senior executive strategic workshop to
be schedule at your convenient time and place in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, US to
be conducted by OSA pioneer
Dr./Prof. Warren Huang
黃華南
博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA
Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Commodity Trade Finance Strategy
website
www.osawh.com ,
www.osawh.com/tradehm.html reservation : email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Worshop Goal:
structured to provide the latest proactive strategic decision
tool for global import/export and real time daily commodity, raw material trading,
capitalize on the emerging NY, Chicago, China energy, metal, feed grain
commodity markets pricing , real time trading strategy and Basel II
financing credit default, markets price, operational risks early warning management maximize value chain profit
at minimum risks
Workshop Mission:
•Provide proactive structural China/global trade and commodity
markets, finance price mechanism,
analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,
metals, feed grain price bull/bear market trend, risks trend achieve sustainable profit , while
minimize risks•
Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity
trade financing to minimize supply chain costs, maximize value chain profits website
www.osawh.com email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global
Proactive
Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and Real Time Commodity Pricing, Finance
Basel II
Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic Restructure, Reengineering Management for
WTO
multilateral, bilateral trade impact analysis and global competitive pricing and market shares
value chain optimization,
risks management WTO trade negotiation strategy,
These systems also tracking, simulate root causes, onset, spread,
recovery of last 20 years global financial, currency, asset bubble burst
crisis impact on global commodity trade finance strategic performance
Goal and
Mission
Goal
:Performance Tracking :
Goal, mission, performance oriented commodity futures, derivatives prices risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up commodity futures, derivatives prices Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow, currency, speculative, weather, supply, demand shocks impact on daily global:
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out
of his 30 year global strategic commodity, feedstock procurement, financial markets
investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational
headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control),
Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, trade, state and private enterprises
corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO,
CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
| commodity name | market | market forces outlook/ early warning | near term trading range |
| CRB index | NYFE | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive CRB 19 yr high | 265- - 285 |
| 10 yr T-bond yld | CBOT | soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher | 4.2- 5.0 |
| 10 interest swap | CBOT | soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher | 1.50- 1.80 |
| Energy/ oils futures prices | |||
| Nymex lt | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high | 41- 48- |
| Brent oil | LO | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high | 39- 44 |
| Nat gas | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high | 5.5 - 7.5 |
| Heating oil | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high | 109- 129 |
| R. gasoline | NYMEX | consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gasoline price high | 116- 135 |
| Propane | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high | 0.75- 0.91 |
| gas oil | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high | 375- 399 |
| Precious and Heavy Metals Futures prices | |||
| Gold | NYMEX | consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price | 370- 410 |
| Silver | Nymex | consumer demand, plunging dollar soaring oil price | 550- 650 |
| Platinum | NYMEX | soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price | 750- 900 |
| copper | NYMEX | consumer demand, plunging dollar, high oil price | 110- 141 |
| Aluminum | NYMEX | consumer demand, plunging dollar high oil price | 70- 85 |
| Fibers/ wood | |||
| Cotton | NCE | consumer demand, plunging dollar drive , high oil price | 41- 55 |
| Lumber | housing demand, plunging dollar , oil price high | 400- 450 | |
| Feed Grain/ Food | |||
| wheat | CBOT | consumer demand, plunging dollar | 370- 350 |
| corn | CBOT | consumer demand, plunging dollar | 225 - 259 |
| soybean | CBOT | consumer demand, plunging dollar | 590- 650 |
| Sugar | CBOT | consumer demand, plunging dollar, oversupply | 6.5-8.5 |
| rice | CBOT | consumer demand, plunging dollar | 9.0- 10.5 |
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately
predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio
station , and
www.osawh.com
website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, weak dollar
due to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion for June) inflation up 5 %,
bond market slump in
May 2004
job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second
quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate
hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30-
50 % correction , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss
made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by
1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead
to some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at
16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation
retreat from May ( benefited by oil, commodities prices down 15 % ).
However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin,
Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up
28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 %
target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994,
soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks bull market is over, entering bear
market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound.
, This supply side tightening
are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating,
will follow US rate hike in Aug implement structural rate hikes
to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto
and retails achieve soft landing Apr. 2005,
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
www.osawh.com
website and thousands workshops
warning US, global analysts over optimistic over second half 2004 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, job
creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 45 trillion dollar housing, equities
wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, ISM peaking out at 66 driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March and Aug. 2004 US trade deficit soared
to 55 billion and
inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. 2004, profit ,
productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending, peaking out, facing
squeeze in summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 stock prices peaking out in the second quarter,
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer
confidence above 106 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing inventory built up, oil,
soared to 46 new high, more rate
hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. (
despite July wholesale price only up 0.1 %
Global Capital Markets Asset
prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared
to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.
He lectured Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month
ahead, investment opportunities in China
petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning for asset bubbles
in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended
invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion
from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the
summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite
March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate
is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious
bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing
bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004,
Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and
blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to
school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM
test 80. Dow will be traded 9550- 9900, Nasdaq 1650- 2000 , Taiwan index post election
bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000-
12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1400, Shenzhen 3100-
3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US
stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
Dr. Huang two OSA master hands controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
Services: Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA
commodity future, derivatives investment workshops for
Strategic, execution supply chain, investment teams.
All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.
Website : www.osawh.com email: wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Copyright 2009,osawh.com/Dr. Warren Huang 2009 www. osawh.com
We are in the phase II of financial crisis, Recovery in banking finance.
Stock market 30 % rebound, misguided us into overoptimistic over the recovering of banking, financial crisis, recovery.
The 8 trillion excess will stay in banking, finance sectors gradually eating away by continued housing price slump resulted mortgage default bad loan and credit card default due to soaring job cuts and business loan default due to plunging consumer, business demand in deep recession.
The banking, finance sectors credit financial crisis will not be fully recovered until 6 month after consumer , business demand rebound,
housing market slump and job cuts stabilize, and economy out of recession. that mean next year.
It is premature for any bull market stock rebound, until economy out of recession!
details on predicted on this blog and Wall Street Journal 2007 market beat and housing development that US housing bubble burst with housing prices down minimum 30 % through 2009, despite rate cuts, bail out,.
8 trillion dollars bail out and buying distress, toxic asset, saving mortgage industry, since last year, US housing price continue to drop as I predicted.
Everyone from central banks, banking, investment banks, home buyers need good lesion of industrial finance, tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial (housing) supply, demand
and prices ( bubbles) for the what , why, how and timing of housing
investment and sustainable monetary policy for growth and stability.
I warned on 2003 Asia, China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shanghai that US, China facing housing bubble.
and warned again on 2007 Peking University Nobel Econometric conference, Wall Street Journal blog that US, and global housing price bubble burst, down 30- 50 % through 2009, drag gloobal stocks into 50- 70 % correction and deep recession.
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
http://www.osawh.com/toxicasset.htm
http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
http://www.osawh.com/macro.html