Goal and Mission

Do not miss this opportunities by Dr. Warren Huang's 30 years development, implementation of thousands strategic structural commodities financing simulators supporting  the latest techniques and structuring  in-depth OSA  tracking, forecasts monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on  thousands US, China, Taiwan, Asian, Russia, European, S. American oil, gas, energy and downstream 20 industrial sectors, 5000 upstream/ downstream products leading multinationals banking, finance, oil, IT, biotech, auto, appliances, food, retials producers, 300,000 importer/exporters to 100 countries, and traders   applications  in  forecast month ahead the emerging trend of dynamic emerging markets economic market forces impact on daily feedstock, products demand, supply bottleneck, futures, derivatives prices, investment, supply chain logistics, manufacturing,  import/export, Basel II credit, market, operational, interest rate risks.  provide structural solution to maximize risk adjusted financial, investment return return, competitive market shares achieve trillion dollar investment profit, avoided trillion dollar market loss, saved billion dollar supply chain costs

Program Agenda:

Day one    Stay ahead of the the latest trend in global structural energy/ commodity finance economics analysis.

Morning session

Opening remarks: Global energy crisis, supply demand bottleneck  impact on commodity, metals, downstream 20 sectors, 5000 products cost, prices, inflation and structural commodity finance investment opportunities, risks.
 
Global Strategic structural dynamic simulation and integration of global market economy, business process
process ( from exploration, production, refining, processing, supply chain logistics, marketing, competitive pricing, to, producers, traders, financiers and insurance, import/export markets demand, prices, risks mitigation decision  analysis, maximize risk adjusted commodity financing investment return   

Integrated Strategic Structural Energy financing , conservation, de-bottlenecking.
Simulation, forecasts of the causes, onset, recovery, impact, early warning of 1980, 90, 2000 and current oil prices, energy crisis, US, China and global energy demand, supply bottleneck and de-bottlenecking strategy through monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO policy and manufacturing process and utility energy conservation

Russia  and Kazakhstan, central Asia Energy and Downstream investment, production, supply chain logistics Financing OSA
Integrating Russian, Kazahkstan, central Asia macro, financial, industrial, trade economy simulation forecasts into Russia energy producers and downstream supply chain, logistics, production, export strategy
and global energy supply, demand, import/export, futures, derivatives prices, tracking, simulating, forecasts Basel II credit, markets, operational, interest rate, currency risks.
Central Asia, Africa Oil & Gas developmental finance

Simulation, forecasts of  China energy, macro economic control , supply chain logistics bottleneck, global energy supply, demand impact on China oil, gas, coal sectors and downstream investment, supply chain logistics,

Afternoon session

Structural Financing in tough markets:
Basel II credit, market, operational, interest rate risks simulation, early warning, risks hedging, mitigation, defaults risks swaps, integrating  financial market into insurance risks

Simulation, forecasts of the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of Asian, Russian , European, S. American currency crisis , and risks hedging
tracking  global central bank governors monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on Russian.global inflation, interest rates,  currency and CBR regulation, operations.
( Two master hands controlling Russian, global economy, currency tracking accurately last 20 years global economy, currency, presented to 24 global central bank governors conferences )

Global ( US, China, European ) Strategic structural dynamic simulation and integration of global market economy, Auto industry business process ( steel mills, auto parts to auto production supply chain   logistics, marketing, competitive pricing, to manufacturers, traders, financiers and insurance, import/export markets demand, prices, risks mitigation decision  analysis, maximize risk adjusted  financing investment return   

Chemicals, Pulp, Papers products structural commodity finance experience
Global economic impact on European, North American Lumber, Pulp and Taiwan, Russian papers, chemicals demand, pricing, investment return.
Structured commodity finance market ( experience with Taiwan no. 2 pulp and paper company  integrate
commodity finance into pulp and paper products manufacturing, supply, chain, marketing simulation, quality control

Global Assets ( equities, fixed income) Prices simulation, Strategic Collateral Loan, Portfolio Swap  Management Optimization and Credit, Market, interest rate, currency risks, crisis early warning.

Day two :Global Strategic Trade and  Structural  Financing for Banking, finance, IT and appliances upstream/downstream Operations Simulation
Opening Remarks:
Integrated global market economy, business process( investment,  upstream/downstream supply chain logistics, export trade, marketing ) banking, finance information technology information management systems simulation/forecasts maximize risks adjusted return, market shares.

 A Single Simulation Chart tells you 20 years story about global monetary , economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on macro economic , inflation, external shocks( weather, supply, demand, capital flow, currency speculative attack, oil prices ) impact on daily interest rates, currency and  Energy, Feed grains, Food, Metals, Fibers Future, derivatives Prices Risks Simulation, Control for 1980, 90, 2000 energy crisis, financial, banking crisis (1980, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis and IT bubble burst, recovery since 2000), under stress one month ahead. Have trained 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, financial, fund, 100,000 import/exporter, procurement managers and presented to 50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance, commodity future risk management conferences
These structural, deterministic, bottom-up forward-looking predictive real options commodity risks dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, oil price , currency shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking accurately US, European, ASEAN, Asian, South America, Accurately  predicted  on China  oils upstream/downstream  profit management strategy in Beijin, for CHina SNP, CNOOC, Petro-China and Taipei for Chinese Petroleum  strategic petroleum reserve  and oils, feedstock SCM procurement,  
 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 Nov. predicted  to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles due to excessive tax, rate cut resulted dollar plunge 30 % ,commodities prices , platinum, silver, cotton, reaching 23 year peak, oil prices, gasoline, peaking out in summer 2004, and stay with economic recovery, demand, not transitory, will drive US CPI to 3.5 %, core inflation to 1.9 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious housing bubble repeat 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9500- 10300, Nasdaq  1650- 1950 , Taiwan index  5100- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12400, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1390, Shenzhen 3000- 3350, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 102- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks  rebound to new high in the second quarter 2004.up it's gain back to normal soon. click Daily Energy, Feedgrains, Food, Metals, Fibers Future Prices Risks Simulation, Control banking crisis with average error Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as required in existing VaR models )

Goal :
Prevent, minimize global government, central banks, macro economic inflation, monetary policy, oil price, global players capital flow, currency speculation shocks impact on daily commodity prices risks
Mission:
Tracking , simulating the causes, onset, spread, and prevention of macroeconomic, monetary policy imbalance ,capital flow, oil prices, currency speculation impact on Energy,  Feed grains, Food, Metals, Fibers Futures and derivatives Prices Risks Simulation, Control and related default, banking crisis . Support, control banking, finance, corporate daily commodity trading, procurement risks, provide dynamic, forward looking interest rate simulation, for banking, finance industry capital requirement supervision, regulation, risk and corporate cost reduction control.

Performance Tracking :

Goal, mission, performance oriented commodity futures, derivatives prices risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up commodity futures, derivatives prices Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow, currency, speculative, weather, supply, demand shocks impact on daily global:

Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic commodity, feedstock procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, trade, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
References : Dr. Warren Huang speech to 18 int'l banking, finance, business, government, academic conferences in 1999

Market forces prices mechanism for commodity prices movement OSA and forecasts

commodity name	market	market forces outlook/ early warning	near term trading range
CRB index	NYFE	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive CRB 19 yr high	265- -  285
10 yr T-bond yld	CBOT	soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher	4.2-  5.0
10 interest swap	CBOT	soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher	1.50- 1.80
		Energy/ oils futures prices
Nymex lt	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high	41-  48-
Brent oil	LO	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high	39-  44
Nat gas	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high	5.5 - 7.5
Heating oil	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high	109- 129
R. gasoline	NYMEX	consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gasoline price high	116- 135
Propane	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive gas price high	0.75- 0.91
gas oil	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price high	375- 399
		Precious and Heavy  Metals Futures prices
Gold	NYMEX	consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price	370- 410
Silver	Nymex	consumer demand, plunging dollar soaring oil price	550- 650
Platinum	NYMEX	soaring consumer demand, plunging dollar, soaring oil price	750- 900
copper	NYMEX	consumer demand, plunging dollar,  high oil price	110- 141
Aluminum	NYMEX	consumer demand, plunging dollar high  oil price	70- 85
		Fibers/ wood
Cotton	NCE	consumer demand, plunging dollar drive , high oil price	41- 55
Lumber		housing demand, plunging dollar , oil price high	400- 450
		Feed Grain/ Food
wheat	CBOT	consumer demand, plunging dollar	370- 350
corn	CBOT	consumer demand, plunging dollar	225 - 259
soybean	CBOT	consumer demand, plunging dollar	590- 650

Sugar	CBOT	consumer demand, plunging dollar, oversupply	6.5-8.5
rice	CBOT	consumer demand, plunging dollar	9.0- 10.5


 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery are not transitory, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hikes in summer 2004,
 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency,energy (1980, 1990, 2000), financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...  

Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high,  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June) inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at 16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  oil, commodities prices down 15 % ). However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up 28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994,  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, will follow US rate hike in Aug implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  achieve soft landing Apr. 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, ISM peaking out at 66 driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March and Aug.  2004  US trade deficit soared to 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 106 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing inventory built up,  oil, soared to 46 new high, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. ( despite July wholesale price only up 0.1 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80.  Dow will be traded 9550- 9900, Nasdaq  1650- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1400, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

Dr. Huang  two OSA master hands  controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.

Services: Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA commodity future, derivatives investment workshops for Strategic, execution supply chain, investment teams.
All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

Website : www.osawh.com email:  wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer

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