Global Strategic Management     OSA  forecasts, mission control  helps thousands  global multinational, SOE
    OSA           save billion dollar SCM costs, achieve sustainable profit growth even in financial crisis 
    www.osawh.com   About OSA   Products & Services   Nobel Prize dream    Methodology
 Integrated Supply Demand Chain Optimization: China/Global Supply Chain Logistics Simulation, Optimization
Strategic Operations  Simulation Analysis  to Maximize Oil and Gas /Chemical Operating Profits
Don't miss your full day billion dollar saving Workshops series
OSA Tracking, simulate, improve your quality, production save billions supply chain costs with improved market shares
Warren Huang, president, OSA Int’l Operations Analysis, USA
keynote speech for IBCAsia Integrated Supply Chain maximize oil, gas, chemical, IT upstream/downstream profits conference, Traders Hotel, Singapore, Apr. 26, 2001/ China Upstream/Downstream  2001 WTO, recession profit improvement strategy, workshop, Nov. 29-30,2001,Beijin, Jan 21-22, 2002 Taipei

                                  Table of Contents:

Introduction: Strategic Simulation Maximize Oil, Gas /Chemical  Value chain Profit in Supply Demand Chain Applications
Why old economy fade, new economy bubble burst?
Decision simulation in monetary policy impact on global e- business strategic management
Information knowledge management based systems supported corporate reform, reengineering,
Change management in productivity, profitability improvement by strategic, execution OSA teams
Strategic OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis )Methodology

What is OSA
Why OSA- Cost benefit analysis
How to develop, implement OSA- OSA teams management
Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis integrate finance, business into supply chain strategy
Macro economic cycle simulation
Daily financial markets asset prices simulation
Money markets, Currency markets, Stocks markets Commodity and Financial Derivatives
Trade economics simulation
Import/export demand, prices simulation
20 industrial sectors 5000 feedstock, products supply, demand, prices , profit margin simulation for strategic competitive sourcing pricing strategy,
Simulation of monetary policy impact on global e- Business  supply chain strategic management
Cost and financial accounting tracking, bubble, scandals early warning, Investment and hedging  risk management strategy
Global capital  market asset prices , profit margin, stock prices simulation for 20 industrial sectors 5000 products
Currency and global currency, banking, financial crisis simulation
Strategic global E-procurement
Country, customers, markets, credit , nonperformance loan payment default risks simulation ,
Commodities, financial derivatives prices simulation and risk hedging.

Integrated Supply and Demand Chain Simulation:
 Integrating business, finance, process technology and core business  into supply demand chain for closed loop value chain optimization and control  
Thousands  structural, dynamic strategic feedstock, products prices  simulators predicted last 20 years daily global  prices month ahead even in financial crisis, bubble bursts
Strategic sourcing , suppliers relation information knowledge  and Operations Simulation Analysis
 " Improve Process by OSA",( Business and Technical Process Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) , integration, Operations Improvement,  computer control achieving sustainable profit growth ) patented in USA,  published 20 English articles on US Oil & Gas Journals, Hydrocarbon Processing and advanced control, information systems handbook 1991-2003,  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html  with 2 million copies circulated to 78 countries, and  over 1000 Chinese articles 100 million copies right  on daily newspapers, technical, banking, finance, management Journals , with  1600 global  multinationals contact for  global strategic management decisions analysis  supported corporate restructuring, reengineering , change management  for business process , procedures operation, review,  profit improvement
Crude oil, feedstock demand, prices simulation/forecasts and procurement cost reduction
Refining, petrochemical, plastics, fibers products demand, prices simulation
Refining, petrochemical, plastics, fibers process plant operations simulation  integrating process, products R& D,   manufacturing process plant daily operations into supply demand chain.
Optimal gasoline blending, competitive pricing, markets shares strategy, sales forecasts
Crude oil, feedstock, products inventory simulation, strategy
CRM Simulation:-Nationwide gasoline station, retail chain performance simulation
Integration and optimization strategy :
Vertical integration: Monetary policy impact on supplier, customer e-business strategy
Horizontal integration: integration supply chain into demand chain and market competitors

Project management: Maximize integrated supply demand chain profits for oil/ gas, chemical industry
Corporate reform, reengineering: Strategic Knowledge management
Strategic Change management :Productivity, profitability improvement by goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, execution OSA teams and integrated into core business units for closed loop optimal control,  to develop, implement the what, why and how of change management decision analysis.

Acknowledgement
Appendix
OSA simulation Charts


China upstream/Downstream 2001, in post WTO, recession fighting strategy/ Cross Strait Investment risks, Return
Warren Huang, president, OSA Int’l Operations Analysis, USA
keynote speech for IBCAsia  Cross Strait INvetment risks, Return and Supply   Chain mamimize oil, gas, chemical profits confernece,  Kerry center hotel Beijin, Nov 29-30, 2001
Warren Huang
two day workshop for Chinese Petroleum at Howard Plaza Hotel, Jan 21-22, 2002

As  Dr. Warren Huang spoke to the conference on Apr that anyone attended his   Apr. 27  workshop that will take home with millions dollar SCM solution ready to implement.:He recommended to take advantage of the crude oil and refining product prices swing for inventory cost reduction and inventory profit generation to buy in MArch-Apr while W Tex. and feedstocks prices dip to near term low   (It did exactly as he predicted) for inventory cost reduction, and sell products inventory in June for inventory profit, will save 20 % in cost and making 20 % profits ( thats millions to billion profits) already made now
He also recommended to China and global oil, banking executives at Beijin Kerry center hotel  Nov. 29-30 that China CNOOC at 16.5  and global oil stocks and oil prices dip below 18 are good investments
Oil prices soared to 29, and CNOOC soared 80 % to 28 now
You can do that every month by reserve to our SCM strategy workshop offered at your corporate office for for all your staff. or book your Refinery operations improvement, troubleshooting, debottleneck, energy conservation at your plantsite  for full day review, operations improvement
reserve by email : wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com

The author has developed, implemented 32 global Information Knowledge based strategic simulation systems for integrated supply demand chain applications in the last 30 years.

These simulations tracking monetary policy impact on Asian, US, European crude oils, downstream refining products, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers demand , spot, contract prices, inventory, profit margin, stocks prices. In 1980, 1990, 2000 energy crisis and recent IT bubble bursts resulted recession with average error below 1.5 %.
The financial markets simulation predicted one month ahead global stocks bubble burst, stock prices plunge avoided trillion dollars market loss.
The crude oil, feedstock prices simulation predicted 30 % -100 % markets price swing saved billion dollars procurement , inventory costs , demand push resulted soaring products prices,. inventory profit, and sluggish demand resulted prices cutting for competitive pricing, markets share strategy

The rigorous process simulation maximize crude oil assay, feedstock composition and operating severity impact on refining and petrochemical process reactors yield, separating units recovery and downstream fibers, polymers processing quality performance at minimum energy requirement.
The author have directed these projects, on the job training, outsourcing, through goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, execution OSA teams to achieve billion dollar cost reduction without capital investment, job cut

presented to Supply Chain Management Strategies for the Oil & Gas /Chemical Business Conference, April 26, Singapore

Introduction:
Change management in productivity, profitability improvement by strategic, execution OSA teams

Why old economy fade, new economy bubble burst?
The old economy oils and gas/chemicals industries still suffered huge operating loss( except oil producer) due to soaring oils, feedstock prices and plunging sales, products, stocks prices due to EURO, US 6 rate hike to cool off the consumer and business demand. Despite the hardware and e-Biz supply chain technology innovation in telecommunication, networks, optic fibers providing high speed instant access to global procurement, inventory, economic data base. These information fail to help it’s customer to predict ahead the financial markets, feedstock products, demand and prices to cut billion dollar costs and trillion dollar financial market loss.
The new economy lack management expertise in marketing, investment, cost control , know very little about the customer needs, from the startup dot.com to blue chip new economy, all managed by IT technical staff, look for technical, market innovation, e-Biz software companies can only provide online instant procurement, inventory, markets, sales, financial markets trading prices information data base, fail to predict central banks monetary impact on consumer, business demand resulted plunging supply chain , demand, prices ., sales, profits, stock prices. bubble burst. Resulted heavy debt and excess capacity by following the crowd, mega merger chasing the markets resulted trillion dollar stock loss

Decision simulation in monetary policy impact on global e- business strategic management

The author has spend 30 years in develop, implement of dynamic Simulation of Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on global financial, energy crisis, recovery ,risk management with application to global corporate strategic management.

Surprisingly, thousands of simulators accurately predicted the global crude oil, commodities, inventory, products prices, corporate earning, stock prices with average error below 1.5 %

32 Integrated global corporate/plant operations Information Knowledge based strategic Decision Analysis simulation systems have been developed, implemented for integrated supply demand chain applications by the author during the last 30 years. as shown on table 1.

These simulations systems tracking , simulate monetary policy impact on Asian, US, European crude oils, it’s downstream refining products, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers demand and spot, contract prices, inventory, corporate profit margin, stocks prices. In 1980, 1990, 2000 energy crisis and rate hikes resulted inflation and recession with average error below 1.5 %.

This financial markets simulation predicted one month ahead global stocks bubble burst, stock prices plunge avoided trillion dollars market loss.

While the crude oil, feedstock prices simulation predicted 30 % -100 % markets volatility bottom and peaks saved billion dollars procurement , inventory costs and the demand push resulted soaring products prices resulted inventory profit, and sluggish demand resulted prices cutting for competitive pricing, markets share strategy

These systems also provide million dollars saving through rigorous process simulation maximize crude oil assay, feedstock composition and operating severity impact on refining and petrochemical process reactors yield, separating units recovery and downstream fibers, polymers processing quality performance at minimum energy requirement.
All these benefits achieved without capital investment and job cuts

Information knowledge management based systems supported corporate reform, reengineering.

All current data based supply chain e-Biz systems projects failed due to it were developed, implemented by IT specialists, Without full expertise (knowledge management) and participation of all related corporate /manufacturing divisions and top management support. and failed to track, improve it’s performances.
Only this author directed goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, execution strategic OSA(operations Simulations Analysis) teams, with top management in the strategic team, middle mangers in the executive team
can provide full benefits of full participation and expertise knowledge supporting corporate reform and reengineering.

OSA Knowledge Management supported Change Management
These real time enterprise, government, banking, finance industries strategic decision analysis systems in risks control, improving productivity, markets shares in the internet age digital economy, e-Commerce, E-Business, E-Learning and supply chain performance applications

Goal, mission, performance oriented, decision supported Information Knowledge Management government, corporate restructuring, reengineering OSA(Operations Simulations analysis )strategic and execution teams directed by the author, who pioneered OSA for maximize IT Knowledge Management productivity for billion dollar raw material, energy costs reduction , with improved quality, productivity, market shares, investment return performances in one year OSA program without staff reduction.:
Strategic OSA(Operations Simulation Analysis Methodology
What is OSA
OSA ( Operations Simulations Analysis), pioneered by the author is an extension of Operations Research, a powerful systematic method for the development and implementation of problem solving and decision analysis tools, applied extensively by the US defensive and aerospace industries using artificial intelligence pattern recognition, nonlinear stochastic process filtering and control for the Apollo moon landing tracking in the 1960's
As the author extended his Ph.D dissertation in nonlinear Kalman filtering of stochastics process with applications to reactors control and econometrics forecasting to knowledge based processing plant design, operations improvement
improvement, safety, explosion risk management , global investment risk, marketing and sales management in his association with Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone-Poulenc, Bechtel's US headquarters and Asian consulting for 30 years..

Why OSA- Cost benefit analysis:
It have been demonstrated that billions dollars saving in crude oil, feedstock procurement, inventory, market sales strategy application and trillion dollars financial loss risks can be avoided.
The author have lectured to 30 million China, Taiwan TV, radio audiences, thousand workshops for US, China, Taiwan, Asian Pacific, European corporate CEO, senior corporate/technical executives, daily tracking results can be found on www.osawh.com

How to develop, implement OSA- decision simulators: OSA teams management

These 32 information knowledge based global corporate/plant OSA strategic management decisions simulatons systems supported new IT organization have replaced the inefficient conventional hierachial IT by goal and mission, performance oriented cross-functional pizza pie OSA strategic, execution teams. It helped global refinery, petrochemicals and chemicals, fibers, biotech and financial market daily reengineering, restructuring and operations improvement(change management) information business with easily measured billions dollars cost reductions return through improved global investment, procurement, production decisions.
Only by this approach, IT executives become the corporate think tank in corporate restructuring and reengineering , cost reductions applications. These knowledge based goal and mission, performance oriented OSA teams will provide virtual, dynamic IT across the corporate and countries bounderies supporting the virtual corporation maximize utilization of global, capital, energy, raw material, information and knowledge resources
These knowledge based decision simulators integrating fundamental theory into information knowledge based, (data history, employee expertise) through artificial intelligence's fuzzy logic, neural net human mind reasoning, pattern recognition in chaos theory based expert systems decision and perform OSA( Operations Simula tion Analysis). All simulation prediction must satisfy error below 1.5 %,
US, European, Asian Pacific, Russia, South America central bankers monetary policy impact and integrated supply, demand chain ,financial markets simulators have been developed through applying Artificial Intelligence neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms out of Information knowledge data base development:
Full corporate , process plant supply, demand chain operating history (or online data base)and last 20 years IMF statistics and daily US, Asian, European Wall Street Journals and Taiwan, China, Hong Kong's daily financial markets news papers, trading and corporate earning data including normal stable continuous and discontinuous crisis data) combined with training and feedback from 30 millions banking, finance executives, fund managers, traders, investors market psychology, corporate, process plant executives on the strategic, executive OSA teams and thousands on the job training workshops, in authors nationwide radio and TV program and conference lectures in Taiwan, Japan and China, US, Europeans integrated into the Neoclassics Synthesis of Paul Samuelson, Milton Friedman demand side monetary economic theory. It pinpoints each financial market crisis beforehand by simulating the global central bankers daily money market operations and it's impact on macro economic GNP, inflation and trade economics, commodities, industrial raw materials, products demand and prices, financial economics interest rates, currency exchange rates and corporate operating margins, US, European, Russia, South America stocks and bonds, commodities and financial future and derivatives(call/put option, warrants) prices

Global Financial Markets, Banking Crisis, Recovery Simulation for early -Warning, Risks Management