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OSA
When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in
good hands
for global macro economic control and US/global
hot stock prices
you are in good hands in stay ahead of global
markets opportunities and risks
Proactive US /
global economic systems, stocks, Structural Dynamic Operations
Simulation Analysis, Real Time Stock Prices Mechanism Forecast,
Tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO
policy impact on macro economic inflation, daily interest rate,
currency, commodities futures prices, 20 industrial sectors supply demand
impact on corporate profit earning, stock prices,
performances, stay years, months ahead of the emerging bull, bear market
trend
OSA Dr Warren Huang accurately predicted on June 2007 International
financial engineering risk management conference, Beijing to top global
investment management, CDO director, and August on Waall Street Journal
Market Beat Real Time Economics Blogs warning US housing bubble burst, and
recession resulted mortgage loan default loan loss resulted banking,
finance and IT shares facing bubble burst for 30- 50 % bear market
correction, continue through
summer 2008, despite Fed rate cuts, and Stock markets entering bear
recession by the end of 2007
Drr.
Warren Huang predicted
to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to
ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips
Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO,
executives in Beijin Feb and Nov. 2005,
that oil prices will soar to 69 ,in summer 2005,
metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80
in summer 2006,
recommended oil, energy, metals futures, stock, ETF doubled due to
soaring US, China inflation will raise
rates
throughout summer 2006., Fed fund rate
will go to 5.5 % , China raised lending rate
Apr. 28 to 5.85 % gasoline futures will to 265,
metals , commodity continue making new high ,
drive CPI to 4.3 % in March and
higher in the month ahead. US Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will
go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing correction
give up all 2006 gain
ahead.
He predicted to Asian Money manager and QFII executive Nov. 2005
Beijing that China A share rebound from 1000 into bull markets Jan
2006
home
US/ Global Hot stocks (Daily most active issues) prices forecasts
risks tracking
go to
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/UShotstock.html
A. Top US Old Economy, Dow stocks
Dow Jones blue chip old
economy stocks:
(Updated weekly by Dr. Huang workshop lecture )
stock Name :
earning/ margin , near term trading range
AA ( Alcoa)
rising aluminum prices, soaring costs 38- 45
AIG
mounting risks uncertainties
55 -69
IBM
competition , pricing pressure
90- 112
AXP
soaring demand , risks
57- 63
BA
rising demand, costs
95- 105
MMM
slowdown in profit growth
78- 89
MS
mortgage loan loss
45- 67
C
mortgage loan loss
27- 40
MRK
lack new drug lead to growth slowdown
45- 50
JPM Chase
mortgage loan loss
27- 40
HPQ
slowdown in profit margin
35- 46
Wal-Mart
competition, discount
45-50
Home Depot(HD) peaking out in consumer demand
36- 43
GE
slowdown in sales profit growth
34- 39
PG
steady growth, facing slowdown
55- 63
Pfizer
lack new drug lead to growth slowdown
23-26
GM
price cutting
25- 35
XOM ExxonMobil soaring profit
75 -80
MER
mortgage loan loss
47- 56
JNJ
steady growth
55- 64
KO
steady growth
45- 55
MCD
steady growth
45-50
B. Top US New economy, Nasdaq IT and Biotech shares
(Updated weekly by Dr. Huang workshop lecture )
stock Name :
earning/ margin ,
near term trading range
GOOG
overvalued, economic slowdown, competition 550- 700
CSCO
slow recovery
25- 35
INTC
high growth potential
23-27
AMAT
slowdown growth potential
18-22
MSFT
antirust slowdown in sales profit growth
27- 32
SUNW(Sun Micro slow recovery
3- 5
Yahoo
moderate recovery
20-29
ORCL
, sharp competition
16-20
AAPL(Apple) Slowdown in
profit growth 120- 165
DELL
Slowdown in PC sales
25-31
SIRI
competition
5- 8
SYMC
competition
16-19
QCOM
Profit squeeze
38-46
OSA
( Operations Simulation Analysis ) is required for investment analysis by
Dr. Huang weekly in-house institutional executives investment
workshops lectures in person, any copy circulate around are out of dated (
he has copy right on its contents, should not be used for any commercial
use without approval.
What is wrong
with Wall Street and global financial market?,
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ? What Wall Street need
?
How to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble
bursts risks
US and Global Monetary Policy Impact on Daily Global
Macroeconomic, Industrial sectors supply, demand, Hot (most active) stocks
prices forecasts and Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
by Dr Warren Huang
(Right and left master hands)
========Dr. Warren Huang
San
Francisco
nexusdirect.net
securities workshop on 2004 second half global asset allocation,
investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center==
reserve :
510-818- 9668
-
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately
predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio
station , and
www.osawh.com
website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer
demand pushing US Oil prices soared above 50, metals prices reaching 23 year high, will follow
economic recovery and not transitory . weak dollar
due to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion for June, 50 for July ) will drive inflation up 5 %,
bond market slump in
May 2004
job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second
quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening,
will follow US rate
hike in summer 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown and followed by
stagflation next year with stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30-
50 % correction
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google
will plunged
from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss
made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts:
Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting
capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some
progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at
14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation
retreat from May ( benefited by commodities prices down 15 % ).
However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin,
Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national housing prices up
14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up
13.2, China first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium,
long term loan up 30.4 % repeat 1994, call the need for interest
rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.
soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices
recent rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement
over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr.
Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear
market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound 20- 40 %.
, This supply side tightening
are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating,
must follow US rate hike in Sept. implement structural rate hikes
to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto
and retails demand . any postpone of rate rate hike will further delay soft landing
into second half . 2005,
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
www.osawh.com
website and thousands workshops
warning US, global analysts over optimistic over the business and
consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, job
creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 45 trillion dollar housing, equities
wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as
predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004. US trade deficit
soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes
after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence(
already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,
peaking out, facing squeeze in second half 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter,
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in Aug., with business spending up 10 %, consumer
confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up, oil,
soared to 50 and metals to new high, will
drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate
hikes are on its way to cool
off the economy. (
Global Capital Markets Asset
prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared
to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum. He lectured Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month
ahead, investment opportunities in China
petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning for asset bubbles
in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended
invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion
from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the
summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite
March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate
is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious
bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing
bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004,
Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and
blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to
school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM
test 80. Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google plunged
from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq 1750- 2000 , Taiwan index post election
bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000-
11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000-
3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.26 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US
stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks
( including IPO )facing
30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
US 2003- 2004 repeat 1998- 2000 asset bubbles OSA : ( right master
hands OSA)
US 13 rate cuts to 1 % and second tax cuts led to money supply growth of 9
% productivity and GDP growth 8.4 %, third quarter, consumer spending up 7.9 %
business spending up 18 %, retails sales growth 7.6 % Dec 2003 ,east, west
coasts housing prices soared 66 % since 2001, plunging dollar and
excessive consumer demand led to oil, commodity reaching 19 year high 9
oil, cotton, copper, platinum ,soybean prices doubled, despite CPI up only
1.2 %( exclude energy and food) , ISM index soared from 39 to 66, consumer
confidence soared to 103 , corporate profit soared 76 % in the final
quarter 2003, investor bullish index higher than 1987 crash, Nasdaq soared 80 %,
Dow up 26 % in 2003. but jobless rate stay at 5.6 %, with 24
millions loss jobs, 117000 job cuts in Jan,2004, despite 112,000 new job added,
Feb only created 21,000 jobs. oils, commodity prices soared to 20 year
high, continue into the summer spending demand fueled by 24 % more tax cuts
income. All the early warning sign of asset bubbles facing burst, UK,
Australia, ECB, Korea and China all raised rate or tightening credit to deflate
the bubbles. US Fed is determined to create jobs, create 2.4 million jobs
to delay action on rate hike
)
Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset
Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2004 yearend strategic investment/supply
chain, Basel II risk control workshop
Shanghai Sept. 17-19,
Taipei Sept 21- 23, Singapore Sept 25-27, Kuala Lumpur Sept 29-30 ,
email
osawhh@citiz.net
for in-house workshops reservation
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30
million government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior
executives investors since 1983 by
80 )
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warni
Million global central banks, top banks, investment bankers, banking, securities
, oils, petrochemicals multinational CEO, CFO, fund , trading managers from 78
countries visited www.osawh.com for
strategic investment, supply chain decision analysis.
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and
economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low
interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer
and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent.
And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher,
until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of
stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990,
energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico
crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by
overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
Website : www.osawh.com
email: osawhh@citiz.net /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Services: weekly global capital market asset prices, bubble early
warning simulation, asset allocation , risk management update workshops ,
CEO/CFO fund managers On the Job Training
program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by OSA simulation for training
simulators.
兩支如來佛掌在中國股市傳奇神話:
黃黃華南博士於1994-98
年間以一半時間在
中國對 十五城市電台電視台三千萬投資者及
中國財政部全國百餘家銀行卷商房地產負責人
副總基金承銷自營經理舉辦千餘次兩支如來佛掌掌握國際金融及滬深股市投資良機與風險巡迴演講
研討會精確預測中國人行宏觀調控軟著陸對滬深股市二十種產業五千種產品市場需求價格機制上市公司新股發行併購營利股價模擬及掌握中國金融危機熊市中之良機與投資風險
九四年七月底對美國華爾街推鑑中國A, B股將強力反彈及以傳真稿對武漢萬國國泰總經理預測八月初上指將由333倍增至800以上果真八月上指反彈上800,
十月底應武證報及武漢萬國國泰總經理交易自營大戶股民演講精確預測94- 96年間
上指在
600-800盤整
九五年初在武證報及中央人民廣播電台全國各地股民推鑑一元買進上海石化八月倍增至八元
次年初對武證報及各地券商電台電視台三千萬股民預測四月降息軟著陸進入牛市牛市上指由600起飛達1800推鑑深發展長虹陸家嘴漲五至十倍及
1996年12月16日應上海證券交易所及東方電台之邀對全國股民演講解釋採用10
%上下限不會影響牛市上指可由1200反彈回1700創新高,
次年達1800
1999年對中國人行行長在澳門央行行長大會及台灣央行太平洋財經大會演講警告美台高科技股過熱資產泡沫破滅將跌五至九成那斯達跌八成向1200探底台指向3400探底但推鑑中國股市進入牛市上指可由1100回1900完全應驗
2003年三月對上海東華大學管理學院研討會及五月對成都中國住宅主編精確預測中國貨幣供應房地產汽車信貸成長偏高過熱面臨緊縮股價回檔三至五成,上指在1400-1600盤整並應二十國家(中美歐亞)央行行長大會發表
一右手前瞻預測貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀調控
通膨及資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析
黃華南博士發表於北京大學中國經濟研究中心2003年12月19-21日在復旦大學舉辦之中國經濟年會以中國貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀經濟金融房地產市場資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對金融組
2003年11月5日對新加波
EURO-Events
舉辦之亞洲金融及資本市場外資機構高峰會
以
亞洲各國宏觀經濟
資本市場前景機遇與挑戰:資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對三百位
亞洲金融機構,及跨國公司,房地產公司幒裁,財務總監
主管及銀行證卷保險公司及政府監管主管外匯投資銀行證卷債卷期貨交易經理及投資大眾演講 (圖片1,
2,
3) lecture
演講內容
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
黃博士於11月25日
上海四季飯店
Euro-events
舉辦之中國金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII,
QDII
基金經理投資策略及風險管理作專題演講
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/
黃博士精確推鑑上海A及ADR,
H 股聯通中石化數週內上揚八成警告人民銀行今年資金緊縮及五月以後隨美國加息科技股回檔三至五成
並可在
貴公司舉辦研討會請速預約
osawhh@citiz.net
前瞻預測貨幣財經入世對宏觀調控金融房地產市場價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析
又 自1998年底發表於歐盟一央行及摩根銀行在羅馬舉辦後歐盟金融銀行整合策略,1999年四月美國華府卷商期貨金融風險管理五月發表於中國人民銀行行長戴相龍在澳門之國際央行行長持續穩定成長政策大會及台灣央行行長亞太財經會議
1999 年12月28起日以八篇連警告美國帶動國際科技股泡沫破滅將跌五至九成發表於北美新浪網及黃博士之www.osawh.com
網站.2001年在七月對北京人行主管及2002-2003對北京大學及上海交通大學金融研究中心以資產房地產價格泡沫模擬,公司治理金融危機預警警告中國科技重組股泡沫破滅機及2003年八月近版
模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,房地產建材業產業景氣及金融市場資產價格滬深股市泡沫
對近期滬深股市影響:
筆者早在去年三月在上海研討會預測在大盤績優股中石化聯通帶動上指向1350-1450,反彈亣帶動汽車鋼鐵房產股反台彈至五月1650深指向2850-
3250探底築底反彈至3900
五月對成都中國住宅警告人行緊縮過熱之房地產建材汽車信貸後滬深金融房地產建材及汽車股由高峰滑落三至五成在谷底探底築底使果真九月股市仍反映人行提高存款準備率緊縮信貸房地產建材汽車港鋼鐵股回檔三至五成上指跌至十一月初1300
筆者去年十一月五日, 對 新加波Euroevent
舉辦之亞洲金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII,
QDII 投資策略及風險管理作專題演大會 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/ 對上海北京Euroevent
舉辦之中國金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII,
QDII 投資策略及風險管理作專題演大會 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/
描敘黃博士精確預測94-96宏觀調控軟著陸及近期人行資金緊縮對
產業供需價格營運股市影響警告汽車房地產信貸過熱高達24 % 造持鋼鐵電解鋁水泥增長160 %造成電力短缺推鑑石化通訊及香港H股上揚八成至倍增帶動大盤在1300反彈至1750及新股倍增十二月底對在復旦大學舉辦之中國經濟年會以中國貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀經濟金融房地產市場資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對金融組演講警告人行將進一步緊縮大盤各股將重演1994及2001年泡沫破滅中美港台房地產需求價格模擬並警告2004年美國在進一步減稅下消費支出大增將迫使入夏石油大曾宗期貨金屬期貨再創新高’通膨惡化勢必加息,股市過熱回檔.
操作模擬分析創辦人黃華南博士 email : osawhh@citiz.net / wh3928@yahoo.com
模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫,掌握國際金融危機,股房匯市投資良機與風險:
中國去年入世後開放國內消費與金融市場降低或取消進口關稅後,已與世界市場經濟需求與價格接軌.各國央行由於缺乏前瞻性宏觀貨幣財經政策,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫利率匯率市場操作價格關聯性模擬,仍以消費物價指數為通膨標準又受害於貨幣供應增漲率等於GDP增長率與通膨率之總和誤導,造成九0年日本貨幣供應率高達12%,等於經濟成長高達9
%與通膨僅3.%總和,但股價狂猋至38200,房地產泡沫破滅暴跌七成至去年7600今去年底得力於對中國出口成長44
%,方步入復蘇
美國重演1999- 2000年財富效應資產泡沫破滅
2000年初美國貨幣供應成長高達9 %等於經濟成長高達6
%與通膨僅 3.2 %總和,而那斯達信息科技股價指數高達5100泡沫破滅跌至1150反彈至2480忽視資產價格泡沫之形成與破滅造成整体經濟與金融市場之沖擊,事後日本降息至零仍面臨通膨緊縮.
早經筆者1998年來在各國央行行長大會警告,由於消費物價未能包括實質資產(房地產與股價)未能有效控制資產泡沫之形成與破滅,貨幣供應過度寬松面臨2000世界性高科技泡沫破滅2001年景氣衰退供过於求單價盈利滑落與通膨緊縮,科技股那斯達帶動國際科技暴跌五至九成,事後大幅降息降稅及括大刺激內需,美國十三次降息至1
%至45年新低三度降稅六兆億以房貸與再貸業帶動連年房地產與汽車業需求成長三成以上房地產價格暴漲五成至三倍又造成財富高達七兆億今年初在股房市進一步上揚及退稅下每家庭股房市及收入總財富高達42兆億創2000年四月來新高及消費支出在去年第三季創8
%成長率企業支出成長15 %企業營利成長76 %經濟成長高達8.5
% 與1999年7.6 %相近今年四月再度減稅下消費支出又回6
%迫使,油價大宗期貨金屬在美元對歐元貶三成下創十九年新高,首季營利成長25
%;第二季進一步攀升,通膨回升十年國債殖利率回升 1%
至4.5 % 股市在通膨利率威脅下不漲反跌重演1999-2000資產過熱造成其相關建材及鋼材需求在中國需求倍增下價格暴漲又造成新泡沫信息產業仍殺價求售
.造成經濟發展失衡.美國,韓泰英國及西班牙澳洲加拿大普遍面臨房地產泡沫.
中國及各國貨幣與物價背離成因模擬: 區域及產業經 濟發展失衡
再看中國自1999年來採寬鬆貨幣及括大內需屢次隨美國降息至5
%,提高沿海各城市薪資及大幅投資公共建設又在去年入關後外資年流入高達530億美元及國內投資成長高達三成增加公共建設今年首季在貨幣供應過度寬松下銀行拆借率由去年十一月3.9%
跌回2.0 %過度寬松(
應在3 % 以上)雖政府投資僅增12
%地方投資增60% 導致工業生產增17 %
今年首季固定資本投資成長43 %貨幣供應成長率仍高達19.4
%,GDP仍高達9.7 %遠高於預期冷卻之7 %出口成長高達三成造成沿海地區貨幣供應及GDP成長率高於全國四個百分點,房地產價上揚六成至倍增及汽車消費
成長六成造成鋼鐵投資增長173 %水泥達 133 %電解鋁大幅成長24省缺電資產通膨過熱,而內地農村成長率低於全國四個百分點物價房地產資產價格滑落,再看其他產業物價受害於入關後美國及世界各國通膨緊縮連續降息及中國入關物價與國際市場接軌又逢降低關稅進口大增造成貨幣成供應增快,中國去年八月在信貸成長高達23
%及貨幣供應成長高達22%
後十一月PPI (工業品價指數已上升5.5 %個百分點)已有通膨壓力今年初貨幣供應成長率仍在19.4
% 高於 17 %
解決目前產業過熱僅從政策面在下游供不應求價格盈利回升下難以抑制投資熱潮必需從供需面雙管齊下加強宏觀調控緊縮貨幣有效降低信貸需求使價格回落
中國及各國貨幣政策:在世界各國利率創新低自刺激消費支出下普遍面臨房地產及汽車業過熱後美國長期國債及三十年貸款利率已回升一個百分點,美國房貸已跌七成至一年新低,汽車銷售面臨衰退,近期回升在利率上揚下將在再度滑落
中國貨幣市場公開操作模擬分 析: 中國人行去年六月宣怖此兩行業過熱後,九月提高存款準備率
1 %減少信貸1500億,在貨幣市場公開操作拆借利率於十一月初加強資金回籠下面臨結構性調整,抑制信貸資金流入盲目投資低水平重複建設,緊縮沿海房貸汽車鋼材
貸款, 提高企業信貸浮動上限,股價於十一月初已回檔三至五成滬指創1305新低增加農村及中小企業貸款擴大消費增加就業貸款防范通膨緊縮及減少局部過熱泡摸沫破滅失衡現向
十二月以來人行在公開市場操作轉寬利率落至2.2%過度寬松滬指反彈至1780又將在公開市場操作上進行資金回籠利率應再度回升至3
% 以上果真今年四月底人行提高存款準備率後利率回升至 2.8 %
模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫
由於通膨無法事先掌握資產價格泡沫造成各國央行事後緊縮貨幣供應已為期過晚,近年來已重視模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫,但缺乏前瞻性與可靠度不高.筆者從事於建立下列結構性因果關係模擬近二十餘年,
精確於事先預測中美港台亞洲及歐盟貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫破滅及金融匯率危機,上市公司報表不實之成因,觸發補救及預警,及近期各國房地產汽車建材產業過熱,
應邀發表於二十國家央行行長大會及刊出於 筆者 www.osawh.com
網站後有各國政府金融銀行企業百萬主管來訪
房地產及資產價格 = 財富效應= f (貨幣供應成長率,消費及企業開支,利率,股價指數,匯率)
國際匯率價格機制模擬人民幣升值壓力,
筆者指導千餘位學生應用下列關係精確模擬預測一百國家近二十年金融匯率危機
中每日匯率價格機制模擬
各國美元匯率 與 ( 美國貿易逆差,各國鬧貿易順逆差,兩國利率差距)關係
應用於台灣三十萬見進出口商一百國家外匯報價及進出口策略,顯示美國今年初貿易逆差高達430億,利息降至1
%導至美元貶值(近期逆差降至390億及利率回升後已止跌反彈人民幣升值壓力略減),人民幣在出口衰退面臨貿易逆差時有貶值壓力,。又在銀行呆帳高達兆億下不具備大幅升值條件,但在預期人民幣升值下
外資流入600億外匯從存底高達4360億乃有升值壓力,但在對美採購150億汽車飛機棉花大豆半導体後進口成長高達四成今年首季貿易逆差高達85億升值壓力大減,
以此價格機制放大浮動幅度,若升值兩成以上將造成出口衰退進口暴增及面臨貿易逆差人民幣匯率高估又面臨貶值,
股價指數人氣如來佛掌模擬
紐約道瓊那斯達指數 = F ( 貨幣供應消費,企業支出成長率,通膨利率
,匯率)
上證A, B股及各國指數 = F (貨幣供應消費,企業支出成長率,通膨利率
,匯率,紐約道瓊)
道瓊與那斯達在近期回檔後第三季可收復失土但在通膨利率利空下上檔不多
中國降將進一步緊縮並隨美國加息,達成下半年貨幣供應成長率降至17
%,GDP 7 % 以下資產泡沫降溫股市盤跌近期上指回1500,
下半年回去年十一月 1300後反彈再回1500-1650
左手掌握二十種高科技及傳統產業上下游五千種供需價格市場價格機制市場上市公司營收營利股價分析如來佛掌掌握各國股市及中國在美國上市(ADR/IPO)熱門新股投資良機風險
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在美國上市之中國慨念股股價除受中國宏觀調控股市人氣(上證指數)及其產業營運影響外又受美國股市人氣影響
(道瓊指數)近期在三大利空沖擊紛紛破底今年隨美股有跌深兩成以上反彈行情