homepage OSA Rate cuts, bailout, stimulus plan, US/Global Credit , financial crisis, recession impact on Daily   US hot stocks OSA
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  Proactive Structural US  / global  economic systems, stocks,  Structural Dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis,  Real Time Stock Prices Mechanism Forecast, Tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO policy impact on macro economic inflation, daily interest rate, currency, commodities futures prices, 20 industrial sectors supply demand impact on corporate profit earning, stock prices,   performances,  stay years, months ahead of the emerging bull, bear market trend
OSA  Dr Warren Huang accurately predicted on June 2007 International financial engineering risk management conference, Beijing to top global investment management, CDO director, and August on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Real Time Economics Blogs warning US housing bubble burst, and recession  resulted mortgage loan default loan loss resulted banking, finance and IT shares facing bubble burst for  50- 70  % bear market correction, continue through summer 2008, despite Fed rate cuts can not stop housing market slump, inflationary recession and and Stock markets entering bear recession into 2009
  home  US/ Global Hot stocks (Daily most active issues) prices  forecasts risks tracking
  go to www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/UShotstock.html    

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog  November 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm

How economist, market analysts still expect economic recession and housing, stock market rebound with rate cuts, trillion dolar bail out plan instantly, when yu have consumer confidence plunged to deep recession low of 38, jobless rate climb to 6.5 % . with continued housing, stock prices slump into next year. Dow Jones index is behind the real economy, It top 143000 last year at the peak of subprime crisis, and at 12000 while the economy entering recession , most of the banking, finance, mortgage price plunge 50- 90 % , Dow Jones only down 20 %.Now Dow Jones index start to reflect the real state of the deep recession economy, plunge into 7000- 8000, do not expect year end rally to 10000, ignoring the troubled prolonged deept recession ahead As I warned on this blog repeatly that no industry, no country ( including high tech) can be immune from this global recession due to burst of super sized global housing price bubble details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

USSept. consumer confidence plunge to 36, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones , NASDAQ, SP 500  and component stocks plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 425 rate cuts, 700 billion  and ECB, UK aggressive  rate cuts ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.

Comment by Warren Huang WAl Street Journal Market Beat Blog - October 29, 2008 at 2:56 pm

Despite market almost plunged 50 % from its top. 900 point rally on speculation on rate cuts as they in the past is not sustainable. as stock plunged 50 % after Fed 425 point cuts. Stock price are not cheap by stock price to earning ratio P/E valuation does not work for recession, financial crisis, where many stocks like banking, finance PE ratio drop from 10 to 5 finally to negative as facing huge mortgage and loss due to bad investments, top investment companies, like Lehman, Bear Stearn stocks disappear from 100 went bankruptcy, Morgan Stanley plunge from 96 to 8, as PE plunge from 15 to 4. As I warned since March this year that the worst will not be over till summer next year, it is dangerous for anyone to invest in banking, finance before first half next year. those stock plunged more than 50 % since March. even Warren Buffet betting on the wrong timing on mortgage and Goldman Sach 5 billions, We are facing unprecedented financial crisis out of super housing bubble burst, no one has the intelligent experience in valuation. Only my proactive structural simulation of macro monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on daily financial, commodities, housing, equities asset bubble prices can pin point exactly , as I warned on Wall Street Journal Market Beat blogsince Sept. 2007 that rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan will not, can not stop housing bubble burst resulted credit, financial crisis, recession and bear market 50 % correction, it will last into 2009. details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

 
DO not miss the following full day proactive structural simulation , forecast of Ultra long short strategy of US major indices ETF and component stock price performance workshops
Optimal long- short of S &P 500  ETF                             Optimal long-short of Dow Jones  ETF                    Optimal NASDAQ  ETF long short  strategy

A. Top  US Old Economy, Dow Jones component  stocks   blue chip old economy stocks:  
 (Updated weekly by Dr. Huang workshop lecture ) 
stock Name :                        earning/ margin ,                     near term trading range
AA ( Alcoa)         rising , soaring costs , demand slowdown          8- 12
 IBM                                competition , pricing pressure               70- 90
AXP                                soaring demand , risks                          20- 28
BA                               demand slowdown, costs                          40- 50
MMM                            slowdown in profit growth                        52- 65
MS Morgan Stanley    mortgage loan, equities     loss                   8- 18
C                            mortgage loan     loss                                    9- 12
MRK                      lack new drug lead to growth slowdown       25- 32
JPM Chase             mortgage loan     loss                                     28-  39
HPQ                          shrinking profit margin                                28- 36
Wal-Mart                 demand, slowdown competition, discount     45-58
Home Depot(HD)       consumer demand  plunge                        19  -25
GE                              slowdown in sales profit growth               15- 20
PG                            steady growth, facing slowdown                51- 65
 Pfizer            lack new drug lead to growth slowdown               16-20 
GM                           price cutting                                                  3- 5
XOM ExxonMobil  soaring   profit                                                 60-80
 JNJ                         steady growth                                                 55- 75
KO                           steady growth                                                 44- 55
MCD                         steady growth                                                49-64
BAC                         loan loss                                                         18- 22
 
B. Top US New economy, Nasdaq IT and Biotech shares
 (Updated weekly by Dr. Huang workshop lecture )
stock Name :     earning/ margin ,                                             near term trading range

GOOG                  overvalued, economic slowdown,  competition  300- 400
CSCO                        slow recovery                                                   15- 21
INTC                          high growth potential                                       12- 17
AMAT                         slowdown growth potential                             8- 12
MSFT                 antirust   slowdown in sales profit growth             18- 24
JAVASun Micro  slow recovery                                                        3- 5
Yahoo                      moderate recovery                                           8- 12
ORCL                ,      sharp competition                                             15- 18
AAPL(Apple)         Slowdown in profit growth                                   70- 110
DELL                    Slowdown in PC sales                                          8- 15-
 QCOM           Profit squeeze                                                            30- 45
QQQQ                                                                                                 25- 30
 
 OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis ) is required for investment analysis by Dr. Huang weekly  in-house institutional executives investment workshops lectures in person, any copy circulate around are out of dated ( he has copy right on its contents, should not be used for any commercial use without  approval.
What is wrong with  Wall Street and global financial market?,
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ?  What Wall Street need ?
How  to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts risks
US  and Global Monetary Policy Impact on Daily  Global Macroeconomic, Industrial sectors supply, demand, Hot (most active) stocks prices  forecasts and  Risks Operations Simulation Analysis  
     by Dr Warren Huang                 (Right  and left master hands) 

 ========Dr. Warren Huang San Francisco nexusdirect.net  securities workshop on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center==  reserve : 510-818- 9668

 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China  first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20- 40 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, must  follow US rate hike in Sept.  implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . any postpone of rate rate hike will further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 50 and metals to  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. (
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq  1750- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.26 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

US  2003- 2004 repeat 1998- 2000 asset bubbles OSA : ( right master hands OSA)
US 13 rate cuts to 1 % and second tax cuts led to money supply growth  of 9 % productivity and GDP growth 8.4 %, third quarter, consumer spending up 7.9 %  business spending up 18 %, retails sales growth 7.6 % Dec 2003 ,east, west coasts  housing prices soared 66 % since 2001, plunging dollar  and excessive consumer demand  led to oil, commodity reaching 19 year high 9 oil, cotton, copper, platinum ,soybean prices doubled,  despite CPI up only 1.2 %( exclude energy and food) , ISM index soared from 39 to 66, consumer confidence soared to 103 ,  corporate profit soared 76 % in the final quarter 2003, investor bullish index higher than 1987 crash, Nasdaq soared 80 %, Dow up 26 % in 2003.  but jobless rate stay at 5.6 %,  with 24 millions loss jobs, 117000 job cuts in Jan,2004, despite 112,000 new job added, Feb only created 21,000 jobs.  oils, commodity prices soared to 20 year high, continue into the summer spending demand fueled by 24 % more tax cuts income. All the early  warning sign of asset bubbles facing burst,  UK, Australia, ECB, Korea and China all raised rate or tightening credit to deflate the bubbles. US  Fed is determined to create jobs, create 2.4 million jobs to delay action on rate hike  )

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubble early warni

Million global central banks, top banks, investment bankers, banking, securities , oils, petrochemicals multinational CEO, CFO, fund , trading managers from 78 countries visited www.osawh.com  for strategic investment, supply chain decision analysis.

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth

Website : www.osawh.com email:  osawhh@citiz.net /  wh3928@yahoo.com

Services: weekly global capital market asset prices, bubble early warning simulation, asset allocation , risk management update workshops , CEO/CFO fund managers On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by OSA  simulation   for training simulators.

兩支如來佛掌在中國股市傳奇神話:

黃黃華南博士於1994-98 年間以一半時間在 中國對 十五城市電台電視台三千萬投資者及 中國財政部全國百餘家銀行卷商房地產負責人 副總基金承銷自營經理舉辦千餘次兩支如來佛掌掌握國際金融及滬深股市投資良機與風險巡迴演講 研討會精確預測中國人行宏觀調控軟著陸對滬深股市二十種產業五千種產品市場需求價格機制上市公司新股發行併購營利股價模擬及掌握中國金融危機熊市中之良機與投資風險
九四年七月底對美國華爾街推鑑中國A, B股將強力反彈及以傳真稿對武漢萬國國泰總經理預測八月初上指將由333倍增至800以上果真八月上指反彈上800,
十月底應武證報及武漢萬國國泰總經理交易自營大戶股民演講精確預測94- 96年間 上指在 600-800盤整 九五年初在武證報及中央人民廣播電台全國各地股民推鑑一元買進上海石化八月倍增至八元
次年初對武證報及各地券商電台電視台三千萬股民預測四月降息軟著陸進入牛市牛市上指由600起飛達1800推鑑深發展長虹陸家嘴漲五至十倍及
1996年12月16日應上海證券交易所及東方電台之邀對全國股民演講解釋採用10 %上下限不會影響牛市上指可由1200反彈回1700創新高, 次年達1800
1999年對中國人行行長在澳門央行行長大會及台灣央行太平洋財經大會演講警告美台高科技股過熱資產泡沫破滅將跌五至九成那斯達跌八成向1200探底台指向3400探底但推鑑中國股市進入牛市上指可由1100回1900完全應驗
2003年三月對上海東華大學管理學院研討會及五月對成都中國住宅主編精確預測中國貨幣供應房地產汽車信貸成長偏高過熱面臨緊縮股價回檔三至五成,上指在1400-1600盤整並應二十國家(中美歐亞)央行行長大會發表

一右手前瞻預測貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀調控 通膨及資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析

黃華南博士發表於北京大學中國經濟研究中心2003年12月19-21日在復旦大學舉辦之中國經濟年會以中國貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀經濟金融房地產市場資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對金融組
2003年11月5日對新加波 EURO-Events 舉辦之亞洲金融及資本市場外資機構高峰會
以 亞洲各國宏觀經濟 資本市場前景機遇與挑戰:資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對三百位 亞洲金融機構,及跨國公司,房地產公司幒裁,財務總監 主管及銀行證卷保險公司及政府監管主管外匯投資銀行證卷債卷期貨交易經理及投資大眾演講  (圖片1, 2, 3) lecture 演講內容    http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
 黃博士於11月25日 上海四季飯店 Euro-events 舉辦之中國金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII, QDII 基金經理投資策略及風險管理作專題演講  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/   黃博士精確推鑑上海A及ADR, H 股聯通中石化數週內上揚八成警告人民銀行今年資金緊縮及五月以後隨美國加息科技股回檔三至五成   並可在  貴公司舉辦研討會請速預約   osawhh@citiz.net   
前瞻預測貨幣財經入世對宏觀調控金融房地產市場價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析

又 自1998年底發表於歐盟一央行及摩根銀行在羅馬舉辦後歐盟金融銀行整合策略,1999年四月美國華府卷商期貨金融風險管理五月發表於中國人民銀行行長戴相龍在澳門之國際央行行長持續穩定成長政策大會及台灣央行行長亞太財經會議 1999 年12月28起日以八篇連警告美國帶動國際科技股泡沫破滅將跌五至九成發表於北美新浪網及黃博士之www.osawh.com 網站.2001年在七月對北京人行主管及2002-2003對北京大學及上海交通大學金融研究中心以資產房地產價格泡沫模擬,公司治理金融危機預警警告中國科技重組股泡沫破滅機及2003年八月近版
模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,房地產建材業產業景氣及金融市場資產價格滬深股市泡沫
對近期滬深股市影響:
筆者早在去年三月在上海研討會預測在大盤績優股中石化聯通帶動上指向1350-1450,反彈亣帶動汽車鋼鐵房產股反台彈至五月1650深指向2850- 3250探底築底反彈至3900
五月對成都中國住宅警告人行緊縮過熱之房地產建材汽車信貸後滬深金融房地產建材及汽車股由高峰滑落三至五成在谷底探底築底使果真九月股市仍反映人行提高存款準備率緊縮信貸房地產建材汽車港鋼鐵股回檔三至五成上指跌至十一月初1300 筆者去年十一月五日, 對 新加波Euroevent 舉辦之亞洲金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII, QDII 投資策略及風險管理作專題演大會 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/ 對上海北京Euroevent 舉辦之中國金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII, QDII 投資策略及風險管理作專題演大會 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/  描敘黃博士精確預測94-96宏觀調控軟著陸及近期人行資金緊縮對 產業供需價格營運股市影響警告汽車房地產信貸過熱高達24 % 造持鋼鐵電解鋁水泥增長160 %造成電力短缺推鑑石化通訊及香港H股上揚八成至倍增帶動大盤在1300反彈至1750及新股倍增十二月底對在復旦大學舉辦之中國經濟年會以中國貨幣財經入世政策對宏觀經濟金融房地產市場資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對金融組演講警告人行將進一步緊縮大盤各股將重演1994及2001年泡沫破滅中美港台房地產需求價格模擬並警告2004年美國在進一步減稅下消費支出大增將迫使入夏石油大曾宗期貨金屬期貨再創新高’通膨惡化勢必加息,股市過熱回檔.
操作模擬分析創辦人黃華南博士  email : osawhh@citiz.net  / wh3928@yahoo.com

模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫,掌握國際金融危機,股房匯市投資良機與風險:
中國去年入世後開放國內消費與金融市場降低或取消進口關稅後,已與世界市場經濟需求與價格接軌.各國央行由於缺乏前瞻性宏觀貨幣財經政策,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫利率匯率市場操作價格關聯性模擬,仍以消費物價指數為通膨標準又受害於貨幣供應增漲率等於GDP增長率與通膨率之總和誤導,造成九0年日本貨幣供應率高達12%,等於經濟成長高達9 %與通膨僅3.%總和,但股價狂猋至38200,房地產泡沫破滅暴跌七成至去年7600今去年底得力於對中國出口成長44 %,方步入復蘇
美國重演1999- 2000年財富效應資產泡沫破滅
2000年初美國貨幣供應成長高達9 %等於經濟成長高達6 %與通膨僅 3.2 %總和,而那斯達信息科技股價指數高達5100泡沫破滅跌至1150反彈至2480忽視資產價格泡沫之形成與破滅造成整体經濟與金融市場之沖擊,事後日本降息至零仍面臨通膨緊縮. 早經筆者1998年來在各國央行行長大會警告,由於消費物價未能包括實質資產(房地產與股價)未能有效控制資產泡沫之形成與破滅,貨幣供應過度寬松面臨2000世界性高科技泡沫破滅2001年景氣衰退供过於求單價盈利滑落與通膨緊縮,科技股那斯達帶動國際科技暴跌五至九成,事後大幅降息降稅及括大刺激內需,美國十三次降息至1 %至45年新低三度降稅六兆億以房貸與再貸業帶動連年房地產與汽車業需求成長三成以上房地產價格暴漲五成至三倍又造成財富高達七兆億今年初在股房市進一步上揚及退稅下每家庭股房市及收入總財富高達42兆億創2000年四月來新高及消費支出在去年第三季創8 %成長率企業支出成長15 %企業營利成長76 %經濟成長高達8.5  % 與1999年7.6 %相近今年四月再度減稅下消費支出又回6 %迫使,油價大宗期貨金屬在美元對歐元貶三成下創十九年新高,首季營利成長25 %;第二季進一步攀升,通膨回升十年國債殖利率回升 1% 至4.5 % 股市在通膨利率威脅下不漲反跌重演1999-2000資產過熱造成其相關建材及鋼材需求在中國需求倍增下價格暴漲又造成新泡沫信息產業仍殺價求售 .造成經濟發展失衡.美國,韓泰英國及西班牙澳洲加拿大普遍面臨房地產泡沫.

中國及各國貨幣與物價背離成因模擬: 區域及產業經 濟發展失衡

再看中國自1999年來採寬鬆貨幣及括大內需屢次隨美國降息至5 %,提高沿海各城市薪資及大幅投資公共建設又在去年入關後外資年流入高達530億美元及國內投資成長高達三成增加公共建設今年首季在貨幣供應過度寬松下銀行拆借率由去年十一月3.9% 跌回2.0 %過度寬松( 應在3  % 以上)雖政府投資僅增12 %地方投資增60% 導致工業生產增17 % 今年首季固定資本投資成長43  %貨幣供應成長率仍高達19.4 %,GDP仍高達9.7 %遠高於預期冷卻之7 %出口成長高達三成造成沿海地區貨幣供應及GDP成長率高於全國四個百分點,房地產價上揚六成至倍增及汽車消費 成長六成造成鋼鐵投資增長173 %水泥達 133 %電解鋁大幅成長24省缺電資產通膨過熱,而內地農村成長率低於全國四個百分點物價房地產資產價格滑落,再看其他產業物價受害於入關後美國及世界各國通膨緊縮連續降息及中國入關物價與國際市場接軌又逢降低關稅進口大增造成貨幣成供應增快,中國去年八月在信貸成長高達23 %及貨幣供應成長高達22% 後十一月PPI (工業品價指數已上升5.5 %個百分點)已有通膨壓力今年初貨幣供應成長率仍在19.4 % 高於 17 %
解決目前產業過熱僅從政策面在下游供不應求價格盈利回升下難以抑制投資熱潮必需從供需面雙管齊下加強宏觀調控緊縮貨幣有效降低信貸需求使價格回落

中國及各國貨幣政策:在世界各國利率創新低自刺激消費支出下普遍面臨房地產及汽車業過熱後美國長期國債及三十年貸款利率已回升一個百分點,美國房貸已跌七成至一年新低,汽車銷售面臨衰退,近期回升在利率上揚下將在再度滑落
中國貨幣市場公開操作模擬分 析:  中國人行去年六月宣怖此兩行業過熱後,九月提高存款準備率 1 %減少信貸1500億,在貨幣市場公開操作拆借利率於十一月初加強資金回籠下面臨結構性調整,抑制信貸資金流入盲目投資低水平重複建設,緊縮沿海房貸汽車鋼材 貸款, 提高企業信貸浮動上限,股價於十一月初已回檔三至五成滬指創1305新低增加農村及中小企業貸款擴大消費增加就業貸款防范通膨緊縮及減少局部過熱泡摸沫破滅失衡現向 十二月以來人行在公開市場操作轉寬利率落至2.2%過度寬松滬指反彈至1780又將在公開市場操作上進行資金回籠利率應再度回升至3 % 以上果真今年四月底人行提高存款準備率後利率回升至 2.8 %  

模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫

由於通膨無法事先掌握資產價格泡沫造成各國央行事後緊縮貨幣供應已為期過晚,近年來已重視模擬貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫,但缺乏前瞻性與可靠度不高.筆者從事於建立下列結構性因果關係模擬近二十餘年, 精確於事先預測中美港台亞洲及歐盟貨幣財經政策對宏觀調控,產業景氣及金融市場資產價格泡沫破滅及金融匯率危機,上市公司報表不實之成因,觸發補救及預警，及近期各國房地產汽車建材產業過熱, 應邀發表於二十國家央行行長大會及刊出於 筆者 www.osawh.com 網站後有各國政府金融銀行企業百萬主管來訪
房地產及資產價格 = 財富效應= f (貨幣供應成長率,消費及企業開支,利率,股價指數,匯率)

國際匯率價格機制模擬人民幣升值壓力,

筆者指導千餘位學生應用下列關係精確模擬預測一百國家近二十年金融匯率危機 中每日匯率價格機制模擬
各國美元匯率 與 ( 美國貿易逆差,各國鬧貿易順逆差,兩國利率差距)關係 應用於台灣三十萬見進出口商一百國家外匯報價及進出口策略,顯示美國今年初貿易逆差高達430億,利息降至1 %導至美元貶值(近期逆差降至390億及利率回升後已止跌反彈人民幣升值壓力略減),人民幣在出口衰退面臨貿易逆差時有貶值壓力,。又在銀行呆帳高達兆億下不具備大幅升值條件,但在預期人民幣升值下 外資流入600億外匯從存底高達4360億乃有升值壓力,但在對美採購150億汽車飛機棉花大豆半導体後進口成長高達四成今年首季貿易逆差高達85億升值壓力大減, 以此價格機制放大浮動幅度,若升值兩成以上將造成出口衰退進口暴增及面臨貿易逆差人民幣匯率高估又面臨貶值,
股價指數人氣如來佛掌模擬

紐約道瓊那斯達指數 = F ( 貨幣供應消費,企業支出成長率,通膨利率 ,匯率)
上證A, B股及各國指數 = F (貨幣供應消費,企業支出成長率,通膨利率 ,匯率,紐約道瓊)
道瓊與那斯達在近期回檔後第三季可收復失土但在通膨利率利空下上檔不多
中國降將進一步緊縮並隨美國加息,達成下半年貨幣供應成長率降至17 %,GDP  7 % 以下資產泡沫降溫股市盤跌近期上指回1500, 下半年回去年十一月 1300後反彈再回1500-1650

左手掌握二十種高科技及傳統產業上下游五千種供需價格市場價格機制市場上市公司營收營利股價分析如來佛掌掌握各國股市及中國在美國上市(ADR/IPO)熱門新股投資良機風險

警示: 本欄資料僅提供投資參考黃博士專利保護未經許可,券商分析師不可用作客戶業務用途
黃博士近月美國及亞洲研討會煩忙,各網頁內容自即日起停止更新,可預約 osawhh@citiz.net  或wh3928@yahoo.com  研討會取得最新分析投資策略資料

在美國上市之中國慨念股股價除受中國宏觀調控股市人氣(上證指數)及其產業營運影響外又受美國股市人氣影響 (道瓊指數)近期在三大利空沖擊紛紛破底今年隨美股有跌深兩成以上反彈行情

 黃華南博士 於美國舊金山 未經許可不可轉載
 email : osawhh@citiz.net  / wh3928@yahoo.com

掌握 明年中國宏觀調控資金緊縮及美國加息下中美金融市場投資良機與風險

 中國宏觀經濟資本市場資產價格泡沫預警滬深股市QFII/QDII價值投資策略操作模擬分析

 主講人黃華南博士發表於2003年11月新加波上海北京一千位QFII/QDII主管及10月於上海財經大學,12月於復旦北京大學  中國經濟年會以 亞洲各國宏觀經濟 資本市場前景機遇與挑戰:資產價格泡沫預警操作模擬分析對三百位 亞洲金融機構,及跨國公司,房地產公司幒裁,財務總監 主管及銀行證卷保險公司及政府監管主管外匯投資銀行證卷債卷期貨交易經理及投資大眾演講 (圖片1,2, 3) lecture 演講內容    http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
 黃博士於11月25日上海四季飯店 Euro-events 舉辦之中國金融及資本市場大會以中國資本市場資產價格泡沫資金緊縮QFII,QDII基金經理投資策略及風險管理作專題演講  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003/   黃博士精確推鑑上海A及ADR, H 股聯通中石化數週內上揚八成警告人民銀行今年資金緊縮及五月以後隨美國加息那斯達向1850探底道瓊探9750上指A探1500科技股回檔三至五成  
可在  貴公司舉辦研討會請速預約   osawhh@citiz.net   
 
中美加息及油價大宗期貨價暴漲對美國與亞洲經濟復甦及二十種產業營利股價影響 中國金融房地產建材汽車過熱,信貸緊縮對產業需求價格營運股價影響 ,入關後外資湧入對中國宏觀經濟金融房地產市場資產價格泡沫預警
此研討會將提供以往參加黃博士百萬QFII/QDII及產業總裁主管研討會及演講及近二十年來影響資本市場經濟市場力量價格機制分析心得作未來價值投資與風險管理決策,避免盲從造成兆億市場損失與呆帳   

A  貨幣財經入關政策對大中華經濟圈經濟復蘇宏觀調控影響展望　
B.亞洲美國央行及人行貨幣財經入世信貸緊縮政策對中國及金融資本市場資產價格回報與財務風險管理　
　1. 宏觀調控通膨,利率, 政府及公司債卷市場前景
    2. 區域經濟,房地產建材信貸過熱,需求價格機制分析上市公司營運價值股價
    3. 滬深A, B 恆生,紅藍籌,H股價指數及台灣在美上市公司ADR期貨及衍生工具價格機制與人氣
    4. 國際匯率期貨及衍生工具及人民幣價格機制 及避險策略    
    5.信息產業及生物科技泡沫破滅復甦力度投資策略風險管理
    6. 汽車鋼材需求泡沫價格股價價值機制動態前瞻模擬預測及避險策略 
    7. 石油大宗期貨及衍生工具股價價值機制模擬預測價值投資及避險策略  .
·   8. 中國上市公司併購MBO前後效益發揮及股價泡沫預警 
    9.資產與房地產證卷化價格與風險管理    
   10. 中國金融銀行國企重組改革改制上市效益及新股發行價格機制
   11. 上市公司財務報表,股價模擬及公司治理報表不實泡沫預警
   12. 中國銀管會,證管會,保管會市場 Basel II 營運,市場及債信風險預警之建立
   13. 國際及中國金融匯率,能源資產泡沫破滅危機銀行呆帳起因觸發及復蘇預警及財務風險預警模擬
   14. QFII 外資機構對中港台與QDII國內法人對國內及國際 價值投資基金資產配置策略與風險管理　
  
主講人 : OSA創始人黃華南博士以三十年經驗建立華爾街信息知識庫獨創掌握國際經濟及資本市場價格機制及財務風險模擬建立數萬種結構性動態價值模擬精確於事先掌握近二十年國際金融匯率能源危機及景氣週期中每日股匯房市價格泡沫機制,對擔任台灣之中央,經濟,產經日報工商時報先探投資情報,今日財經,財政經濟月刊環球經濟,交通銀行產業金融新經濟石化工業貿易週刊各刊物能源,資訊,投資論壇產業金融外匯期貨黃金專欄主筆及專欄作家及中國經濟日報金融時報中証上証深証及武証報發表千餘篇文章於中美台灣地區政府金融財經投資管理報章雜誌, 並於1994-98 年間在 中國對 十五城市 電台電視台三千萬投資者及 中國財政部全國百餘家銀行卷商房地產負責人 副總基金承銷自營經理舉辦千餘次研討會精確預測中國人行宏觀調控軟著陸對滬深股市產業產品市場需求價格機制上市公司新股發行併購營利股價模擬及投資風險精確預測 上指在 600-800盤整推鑑上海石化由1元暴漲至8元 及牛市起飛達1800股價倍增及1999年對中國人行行長在澳門央行行長大會及台灣央行太平洋財經大會及二十國家(中美歐亞)央行行長大會發表演講及發表於北美新浪網警告美台高科技股過熱將跌五至九成那斯達跌八成向1200探底台指向3400探底大會2003年三月對上海東華大學管理學院研討會精確預測中國貨幣供應房地產汽車信貸成長偏高過熱面臨緊縮股價回檔三至五成,上指在1250-1600盤整
 黃華南博士建立 二十種產業五千種上下游產品信息知識 32種國際政府金融企業知識經濟提供價值投資並購策略聯盟採購供應鍊資源策劃變革管理策略系統應用協助美國MOBIL, AMOCO, PHILLIPS 石油公司財務部建立32種國際投資並購供應鍊策略系統支援公司及董事會國際經營策略及政府,金融銀行房地產及企業重組並購投資降低採購供應鍊成本及數十萬進出口商百餘國家外銷市場外匯出口報價,大宗原料原油採購策略數百家國營及深圳百餘家上市公司,民營企業重組再造及金融銀行價值投資及風險管理在三度國際景氣衰退中轉虧為盈提高國際市場佔有率,發表於美國國際石化雜誌( Int'l Hydrocarbon Processing)高級自動化,提高生產力1991-2003 年手冊推鑑 有歐美亞太地區78國家1600 餘家石油,石化,塑膠化纖,工程,自動化公司及學術科研機構   www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html

訓練台灣台大清華東海及中國北京清華復旦交通浙江大連十大名校數千化工財經管理電腦金融工程學生
 已有來自七十國家百萬政府歐美亞太央行金融主管:國際貨幣基金,美國聯儲,歐盟央行中國人行, 世界,QFII及投資銀行(花旗,美國,瑞士,荷蘭,德國,巴黎,英國巴克來,匯豐銀行美林,摩根高盛,所羅門美邦,華寶,野村)企業(IBM, Exxon- Mobil, BP, Shell,阿拉伯石油 ,中國石油,中國石化,GM, Ford, Toyota, Benz,  思科台積電聯電鴻海英特爾等)主管學術界(哈佛麻省理工史丹佛賓州 密西根,,西北,芝加哥大學)來訪黃博士www.osawh.com 網站

 可邀貴公司各級主管客戶股民參加使開戶倍增 預約: osawhh@citiz.net