OSA  Hong Kong Monetary Authority Optimal Monetary Policy, GDP Growth , Inflation,  Asset Prices OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control: Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of  Central Bank Optimal Monetary ,Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation, unemployment, GDP, Assets (Stocks, Bond, Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles Identification, inflation, deflation, burst, recovery, early warning , performance guidance and Control in  achieving optimal growth and price stability
 The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  20 industrial sectors demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences 
 OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of  Dr. Warren Huang speaking, pioneering proactive structural dynamics simulators for global central banking innovation

China/ Hong Kong  Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, Hong Kong , Asian Financial crisis and global capital markets
OSA asset prices, financial crisis, Basel II credit, market, interest rate, liquidity risks. capitalize investment  opportunities, avoid trillion dollar  market  loss, achieve sustainable profit   
Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
Millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 
Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士)accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market correction, recession , oil go to 100, despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008
Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008
 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit
 tightening  recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 
US/China central  banks neutral  interest rate or inflation targeting will all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  Current Hong Kong/ US/China monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy or distorted energy prices) to set  interbank rate, fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset and its downstream products market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth in 2003, consumer, business demand, wealth effect speculation since then overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting potential inflation and soaring housing construction material asset bubbles.
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices , China, US rate hikes impact on Hong Kong Economy, Demand, Capital markets prices
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( US Dow  index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)

Hong Kong Monetary Authority   Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators
Hong Kong  is still recovering from 1990 and 1997 housing and stock market bubble burst and 2000 high tech ( IT upstream/downstream ) bubble bursts, and structural change as downstream labor intensive industries moving out of the countries into China,while fully recovered from SARS  ( suffered 200 billion capital out flow into China properties, construction  hotel industry.
Hong Kong  stock index plunged with Nasdaq  60 %  from 18500 to 8000 in 2003( predicted by Dr. Huang in Beijin July, 2001 to China Peoples Bank staff and rebound to 12500, plunged to 8300  April  2003 as suffering by Asian SARS and US slowdown. Economy contracted 0.5 %  and facing deflation in the second quarter 2003 and money supply growth plunged to 0% and unemployment soared to 8.8 %
However, Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring US, EURO and China tourist with US7  5000 spending and  China free trade agreement, dominated export demand  , Hong Kong  economy is  recovering  in the second half  2003 and continue into 2004 with money supply growth  back to 1.6 % with GDP  back to 12 % growth in the second quarter 2004 , and money supply growth soared to 5 % benefited by hot money pouring into stock market  on RMB appreciation 20 % growth in manufacturing and trade, loan tourist in final quarter 2004. The soaring  oils , metal s prices help HK getting out of deflation with inflation at 0.9 %unemployment down  to 6. 7 % still suffering trade deficit due to HK dollar peg to US and Foreign reserve of  118  billions. 
 Henseng Stock index soared from bottom of 8200 in 2003 to  20800  , benefited by China A+H shares IPO and China stocks, housing wealth effect is overheated, with m2 money supply growth over 20 % 
 
 It will enjoy 5.5 % GDP growth in 2007 due to China overheating, US recovery but drag by  US  slowdown this year ( HK is benefited by  China opening resident to boost Hong Kong tourist industry and China Hong Kong free trade zone, strong export,  and lower interest rate at 1%, benefited by US and Asian economic recovery
Henseng stock Index simulation
 US recovery   and China demand will further help Hong Kong  export  and led to industrial production rebound and looking for 5 % GDP  this year
Hong Kong Blue chips property and banking  overheated for correction,  Henseng stock index will be traded 18500-21000 HK $ currency: Peg to US $ at 7.7
Hong Kong  Housing, Stocks  prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:  already overheated.
Most active stocks prices OSA/forecasts
Blue chips soared 50- 80 % H share 150 % overheated , facing consolidation

While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 2000 asset bubble burst, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, China 1994 run away inflation offered thousands lectures to China Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Guanzhou, Taipei, US San Francisco 15 cities TV, radio investors, traders, hundred  banking finance companies CEO, fund managers, executives, predicted 1994- 1998 macro economic control, soft-landing, and 1997  Asian  currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks governors monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his website www.osawh.com  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation.  Housing mortgage bond yield are below 6 %, too low to cut demand and asset bubble. pushing oils prices to 65-69 and construction materials, metal to new high in winter heating oil demand peak ( Xmas-January )due to cold weather demand and soaring US trade deficit to 68.9 billion, drag US dollar predicted by Dr. Huang Nov 18, 2005 in Beijjn China Oil Market Conference  to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO, Phillips Petroleum CEO, VP
 
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on www.osawh.com  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive year end 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, market rally,   peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 50  trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into   2005 with  US trade deficit soared to   70  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes through summer of 2006  profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2005 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Dr. Huang  pioneered two master hands thousands structural dynamic proactive quantitative models  accurately predicted last 20 years global economy and daily capital market asset prices , presented to 24 global central bank governors, risk management conferences , He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with photos 1, 2, 3 lecture  ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for 2004 asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004, Oct. 0.27 % and more )cut money supply growth from 23 % to 14 %, drag inflation from 5 % in 2004 to 1.3 % of Oct. 2005, but excessive business and consumer demand still push GDP to 9.4 % with overheated housing market continue into 2006

  Asset Bubble and Monetary, Economic, fiscal, Policy , oil prices Impact on Hong Kong economy, capital markets, money, currency, stocks, bond , properties asset prices wealth management,  wealth effect bubble bursts, Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
  Monetary policy Impact on  Asian Financial Crisis, Recovery  by Dr. Warren Huang    

Announcement  :OSA  country web pages assistant editor and marketing opportunities 
OSA will expand 40 countries web pages content in local language and English domain  in 2005, looking for
A. Assistant editors for all areas, current college student of all majors, interested to be training by our e-Learning mission
 impossible, develop  your country information knowledge base, web contents, you will be co-author with Dr. Huang to present your results in local , international conferences, for future graduate  scholarship, job application credit references
B. Marketing agent: Local country web pages design,  domain, boosting traffic and workshops marketing, some experience required   
C. Strategic alliance partner, profit sharing partner
      Contact  osawhh@citiz.net  in  Chinese  wh3928@yahoo.com  in English
====================================================================================
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 90 , 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes..
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
 5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop.
Do not miss this  strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum www.abf.com.sg  China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on 2005 oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return in investment banking M/A, IPO performance.
C.Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net
  Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:



Hong Kong Blue Chip and red chips, H- Share prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

Hong Kong ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

Dr. Huang  two OSA master hands  controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
 Dr. Huang  predicted again on  Euroevents Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that US and China underestimated excessive  US rate, tax cuts, dollar plunged 30 % and soaring China consumer demand, FDI  will push oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3. % US 10 year bond yield up 1.2 % to 4.8 % resulted 380 billion dollar loss and series  rate hike after May 2004,  
OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks bull markets  rally  March 2003 Dow Jones  from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, India, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 10 % profit in two days.  

======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net 
 Hong Kong 2004 Economy, Capital Market Asset prices, Wealth Management OSA Forecasts  Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  beat the capital , money, insurance, property month 3 month ahead Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
    
Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. and  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  and
This website accurately predicted US will repeat 1999-2000 bubble burst /deflation , with current recovery peaking out third quarter 2003 (GDP 8.3 % ,consumer, spending, money supply growth at 8 %, commodity index reach 19 year high, metal, fibers, oil prices doubled, ISM over 66, productivity at 9.5 % are inflationary and  unsustainable, dollar plunge,( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) inflationary already leading to  19 year high in commodity oil prices  will  drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer ,  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike,  soaring housing, equities prices, wealth effect bubble burst in post election, if not deflated by then  ) and second quarter 2004,   ,facing slowdown ( 3 % GDP  ) by year end,  now, China Jan whole sales prices up 6.7%, consumer prices up 5.7 % will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year and   will face slowdown by year end , it is premature for HK properties recovery
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

========= Special Strategic Wealth management conference, workshops  Announcement =============
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang return from  Asia, lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003  will offer keynote speech and half day workshop for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore. He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors since 1985
He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Feb- March
reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com  
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==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Shanghai lectures to  Euro-Events  China Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference and booth at  Grand Ball room, 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel,  Nov. 25 and  Beijin  Nov.  27 to 400  China  government regulation, banking, finance ,  QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices  mechanism  SUMMIT workshops   Nov. 28-Dec 18
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian ( China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan )economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials  auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops
  first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts ( last update Oct. 2002), go to in-house workshops for recent update)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
 It will enjoy 3 % GDP growth in the second half due to strong  China tourist demand boosted hotel occupancy from 16 % to 83 %  and lower interest rate at 0 %, benefited by US and Asian economic recovery and China free trade agreement
Henseng stock Index simulation
 US recovery   demand will further help Hong Kong  export  and led to industrial production rebound and looking for 3. % GDP  in the second half  and 5 % 2004 Dr. Huang  predicted and warned here again early Sept that global economist and market analyst treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring  US and global high unemployment will drag consumer confidence and stock prices 10 % correction.
Hong Kong Blue chips property and banking  and H shares overheated for correction,  Henseng stock index will be traded -11500- 13900

Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND CAPITAL MARKET ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian Financial Crisis Asian Financial 2000 high tech bubble burst  July 2001 in Beijin   that Taiwan index plunged to 3400,  Henseng plug below 9000,  facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRD, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
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USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil 
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Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,   sponsored by Peking Univeristy Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpement Dec 5-6, 2002, Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
  OSA maximize nonperformance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops in December in Asia  tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your   debt, equities, properties nonperformance  asset  email wh3928@yahoo.com for  your in-house workshop reservation
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Dr. Huang   return from Asia, lectured to Euroevents Asian Business Forum's  ABS conference  Kual Lumpur Sept 2002 to  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: He warned that US, and global stock facing final stage correction in early March 2003  predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth

Website : www.osawh.com email: / whuang3928@aol.com
Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484
Services: Bubble Burst simulation and prevention Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.