Global Optimal Proactive Structural Dynamic Multi-Class Asset Pricing,  Allocation, Strategic Alternative Investment, Hedging Risks management, 
  中文  
Recessions,  Crisis, Risks , Early Warning / Strategic Structural Hedging fund, commodity, currency, housing, emerging market investment strategy and risk Management  (OSA)/forecasts  provide the what, why, how and timing of risks hedging, stay ahead of the emerging macro economy, capital market asset prices  futures, options market prices movement trend, capitalize, maximize    return  minimize risks in global crisis ,  Beat global macro, fixed income, equities, commodity, currency  hedge fund markets Crisis, Risks ,
OSA  help  top global multinationals avoided trillion dollar loss, achieve sustainable profit growth  in  crisis  
 www.osawh.com
By   OSA pioneer, expert in global strategic investment/supply chain optimization and risk control

Dr. Warren Huang with 20 years global  strategic alternative investment in emerging market macro strategy, commodity, currency and hedge fund risks hedging, early warning, beat global hedge fund, macro- economic control , prices stability and capital market  strategic investment , optimal dynamic asset allocation  and full range  optimal structural risks hedging  beat global hedge fund.
Global central banks, economist, financial market, oil, petrochemicals upstream/downstream, hedging fund  analysts ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning to 24 global central banks governors conferences 1999 on  IT asset bubble bursts and again to Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events lectures on Asian/China Finance, Capital Market Conferences, Nov. 2003,  andaccurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, oil above 110, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund failure despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3000- 4000 till summer 2008

 www.osawh.com website and thousands workshops underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer housing, auto, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high and inflation. facing credit tightening, rate hikes,  betting on the wrong side of interest rate , lose trillion dollar in bond , stocks investment during May 2004  repeating 2000, doing too little too late again, indicated by Greenspan.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices 4 month ahead and again at  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian( China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea) and China  economic outlook, asset prices  recommended to buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow,. while sell (hedging ) overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  stock indices and  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to excess rate, tax cuts resulted , soaring oil, commodity prices,  housing, stock markets facing bubble burst
 continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in  China ADR share up 50 % -80 % , IT shares drop 20 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to  17-  this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
Signup for Dr. Huang's strategic QFII/QDII global strategic structural risks hedging  workshops always predicted 3 month ahead to take advantage the market crisis, setback , while avoided trillion dollar market loss . for most recent up date on investment strategy and risks early warning, beating the global financial markets and economists chasing the market, speculate on business, market news  reserve:   wh3928@yahoo,

Over  100 trillion dollar derivatives markets , 500  billion  global hedging fund ( 23 billion Asian Pacific hedging fund ) are still making hedging decision by speculating on the 1- 3 months old business, economic news,  betting on the wrong side of the global economic and financial markets  recovery resulted trillion dollar market loss.  (overoptimistic by invested in call option, while Dr Warren Huang's  profiting by hedging  by   following OSA warning that Nasdaq and  Dow blue chips stocks were overheated  in Jan, 2000 and May  2002 Peking university, global finance conference and , Sep 2002 lectured to ASEAN central banks, banking, finance executives  Asian Business Forum warning US stock market retest new low in March 2003 and  interest rate hike concern, invested in the put sid
 Dr. Huang spoke to JP Morgan, ECB post European banking, finance integration strategy conference 1998, warning  stocks market crash following the Asian financial crisis spreading to Russia, South America, and US 90 billion asset Long term Capital Hedging fund bet on the wrong side of interest rates and 2003 bond market crash, repeat 1995 on falling interest rate, causes billions dollars loss in US and European financial institutions ( Swiss banks , Merrill Lynch and others) it calls need for reliable decision tools to minimize these betting risks. While our banking, financial markets knowledge based Global Financial Markets Operations simulation Analysis  expert system has been providing real time tracking, simulation and accurately predicted the Global Central Bankers Monetary policy impact on global interest, currency rates, stock , commodities, financial derivatives prices in last 20 years global financial crisis, Trillions dollar loses could have been saved by our predictions in the Asian, Russia, South America financial markets and  Long Term Capital crisis , 2000 US IT bubble bursts with average error below 1.5 %. invited to speak to 24 global central bank governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.  offered thousands lectures, workshops to China, Taiwan, ASEAN, US, European 15 cities 30 millions TV, radio investors, hundred banking, finance, asset management companies million CEO, managers since 1985.
million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives visited this website
tracking our results since 1998. 
Two Master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators provide structural strategic wealth management and optimal dynamic asset allocation , structural risk hedging, early warning; identify last 20 years bubbles, crisis month ahead, make trillion dollar hedging profit, while avoided trillion dollar markets wealth loss due to current market analysts, wealth managers following the crowd, chasing the markets.
The right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments in the listed( US )and home country( monetary policy tell you when to hedge ( when every hedging fund is chasing the hot markets and  afraid to hedge the put is selling for a nickel) :do not chase hot ADR  stocks when they  are too hot, when every analyst recommending, investors chasing (Dr. Huang warned  NOV.1999 on www.sina.com  that  China ADR shares are too hot, speculating WTO,   CPIH soared from 1 to 80 , it dropped to 15 in three days. Nasdaq index soared to 5100, Taiwan OTC stock soared to 10000, in March 2000,  bubble will burst  down 50 -90 % and identify the opportunities when the credit tightening impact is over( usually 3-6 month after last interest rate cut, economy, spending is cooloff, corporate earning decline is over, stocks prices plunge, fully deflated, compressed.  when every analyst, investor think it's the end of the world

The left master hand will tell you month ahead, how monetary policy impact on global 20 industrial sectors 5000 supply demand, prices, and corporate stock earning, stock prices  decline is over, when everybody is selling ready for turn around
visit www.hedgefund.com for global hedge fund return since 1988

Thousands structural dynamic global capital markets  asset prices OSA/forecasts month ahead the emerging interest rate, currency, equities, commodities futures, options prices movement  and emerging  market macro and capital market prices trend , supporting two master hands  tracking, simulate, forecasts month ahead, monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on last 20 years  global economic macro economy, daily interest rate, currency, bond yield, ( rght master hand) 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, commodity future, corporate earning, capital market asset prices,  futures, option  derivatives prices market forces prices mechanism (right hand) provide the what, why, how of early warning, and good timing, emerging trend, direction of  of risk hedging covering full scope of strategy and sectors hedging funds in aggressive growth, distressed securities, emerging markets,  fund of funds, income, macro, market neutral arbitrage,, market neutral securities market timing, opportunities, mixed strategy, short selling, special situation, value, sectors specific hedging funds maximize trillion dollar  hedging profit and minimize loss in  last 20 year global financial  crisis, asset bubble bursts,   in avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. :
2004 Asian and China finance, capital market economic outlook optimal dynamic asset allocation ,  strategic wealth management,  risks hedging lectures

Real time simulation of Optimal Dynamic asset  allocations , structural hedging risks maximize return in Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis, LTCM, US IT bubble Burst, recovery, and minimize loss by  capital market asset, derivatives prices OSA simulators early warning  

 Dr.  Warren Huang    www.osawh.com  pioneer  OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA

                                                                          Abstract

These  investment banking and financial markets knowledge based Global financial Markets OSA (Operations Simulations Analysis), Risk Management expert systems. which  extend the author's earlier  nonlinear adaptive filtering and optimal stochastic control experience to thousands artificial intelligence,  state space form real time structural dynamic deterministic causes and effect  simulation of  last 20 years US Asian, Russia, South America and European central bankers monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO  policy  impact on   inflation, GNP, money markets interest rates, currency, stocks, bond, commodities, futures, financial derivatives prices and 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products demand, futures, derivatives prices with average error below 1.5 %
These simulators predicted 3 month ahead global economy, capital market  asset prices , bubble early warning, providing reliable asset allocation decision tools and market, operational risks tracking, control, replacing current unreliable statistical estimate VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. 
Dr. Huang has applied these strategic simulators for thousands lectures/workshops to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities TV, radio 30 million institutional, private investors, hundred banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers maximize traditional and alternative investment and risk management strategy, capitalize on last 20 years trillion dollar investment opportunities and avoided risks in financial, currency, bubble burst crisis.
Strategic  structural asset prices,  optimal dynamic asset allocation, risks hedging simulators covering full range hedging applications tracking results have been presented to 24 US, European, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong,  Japan, ASEAN ,global central banks governors, securities, futures association, finance, capital market, wealth management , hedging fund risk management conferences  1998- 2003

Two full day workshop will cover strategic alternative investment, hedge fund investment strategy and market, operational risk management 

1.  Aggressive growth:  Micro, small, mid-cap on Nasdaq info-100 and global ADR, Hong Kong H-Shares
2. Distressed Securities: corporate debt, equities under bankruptcy, reform, in  China US, global bubble burst
3. Emerging Markets: Equities, bond,  in less develop countries , and OSA global indices, currency futures
4. Macro:  Global interest rate, monetary policy, asset bubble , inflation  investment, hedging   strategy OSA
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil
5. Income: bond, money market, yield producing securities, ( ABS/MBS/CDO )
6.Market neutral arbitrage: take advantage of pricing discrepancies, inefficiency: Global ADR and local markets
7.Market neutral securities hedging: invest in spread between different growth security Global ADR /local markets
8. Market timing : short term movement in Global ADR and local markets
9. Speculative: Speculation of business news
10.Mixed strategy: mix aggressive, value, speculation optimal asset allocation
11.Short selling: Take short position in OSA supported asset bubble burst  early warning
12.  Special situation : time spread on long and short of equities 
13. Value: invest in top  blue chip earning performance outlook
14 Sector Specific : . invest in good sectors performance equities ( OSA 20 sectors performance OSA_
15. Fund of fund: invest in multi managers hedging  funds to diversity the risks through optimal asset allocation
Alternative investment strategy:
Commodity, metals, oils futures, derivatives
Emerging Market capital markets hedging China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazi
Currency, Forex futures, derivatives , hedging

Supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's thousands strategic structural causes, effect decision analysis training simulators
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/   photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
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workshop highlights ( select the subject of your interests )
2005 Global economy,  inflation, interest rate, capital markets outlook
A  Monetary, Economic , fiscal Policy , WTO impact on Greater China /Asian/ Global Economic Recovery : GDP,  Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI:   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore  US,  Western / E. Europe,  Russia  Japan,  Korea   
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact  on China/global Capital Markets, Fund return , risks:
 China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore    US,  EMU EURO / Eastern Europe,  Russia  Japan,  Korea   
. Inflation, Interest rates, government, corporate bond yield and fixed income fund  forecasts risk s early warning
. China state enterprises reform privatization and IPO performance, stock pricing, hedging  strategy
·Strategic Corporate Governance, supervision, financial systems monitoring , stock prices bubbles, early warning
·Banking, finance reform, IPO,  Securities, Banking, Insurance , regulation, supervision Basel II risk early warning
. Causes, onset,  recovery, early warning of China/Asian financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets
  currency, credit, market risk simulation, hedging, plant equipment performance and syndicated loan, securitization
· Strategic Global/China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing pricing 
· Equity fund capital markets:  Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng , Blue chips, Red chips, H share, Taiwan  Japan, US, Russia,  global  indices futures,  derivatives  prices mechanism,  Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. RMB pricing mechanism , global currency market  futures, derivatives prices , forecasts, risk hedging
.Global biotech products, markets innovation, investors sentiment impact on IPO, stock prices , risks hedgeing.
IT  post bubble recovery,  housing, auto, steel  bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks, mutual  and hedge fund performance
.Oils, metals commodity futures, derivatives  prices, earning, stock prices , mutual fund performance, hedging  risks.
· Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B  listed stocks  corporate earning, stock prices, China fund, derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical, early, stocks prices, mutual and hedge fund performance, investment strategy.
 China mutual fund  and global  mutual fund performance , investment and distribution strategy
 China /US /Global Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock prices, investment strategy
· Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitization prices,  defaults risks simulation
·China/US equities and properties housing bubble  wealth effect investment strategy simulation and risks management 
.China /US Debt, equities, money, energy, gold , index  mutual  fund performance, asset allocation risk management
China and US monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on Japan, Asian economy, capital markets prices Mutual fund Optimal Asset  Allocation strategy:
US  China Hong Kong  Taiwan   Singapore, Malaysia, Japan   Korea,  Thailand,  India  Eastern Europe/Russia  EURO
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Who should attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO  board members, financial institution CEO, CFO, managing directors, asset,  hedge fund managers, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers, equities, currency, bond, commodity futures, trading managers, traders, investors.

Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang’s round trip San Francisco Air fare, hotel plus lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion dollar investment opportunities, while avoided chasing the markets resulted trillion dollar loss.

Language:  Mandarin or English

 Reserve your  in-house workshops (June)   osawhh@citiz.net   ( Chinese)    or wh3928@yahoo.com   ( English )

Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 10 % profit in two days.  

======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  Registration and Information: Please visit www.GCFF.net 

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net  
  Real time US stocks and option prices quote can be found:
http://finance.lycos.com/home/chain.asp?symbols=NYSE:C

The tracking results have been demonstrated on www.osawh.com . saving trillion dollars global financial market loses and Long Term Capital Hedging (betting on the wrong side of interest rates) which accurately predicted US Fed will not and can not raise interest rate to trigger another round of global currency crisis and global currency and stock markets overheat., failed to reflect Asian turmoil impact on corporate profit and US widening trade deficit on July 20.1998 Dr. Huang warned that the Dow Jones Index at 9340 and global stock index at their peak , Dollar at 147 and Mark at 1.84 , ECU at 1.06 are over priced, ready for 10 to 20 % correction(The author recommended to short or buy put). Greenspan remarks on July 21 about the stocks and economy overheat took the Dow, global stock index and dollar plunge 20 %. The put investment almost tripled.
The combination of IBM stock price simulation and IBM put/call option simulation accurately predicted on the website on June 5 that IBM will be traded between 103 and 136, reflect Asian Crisis impact on the weak Yen at 147 resulted currency loss, recommended to buy IBM Aug. 110 put, and Aug. Call 130 . investment soared 20 times on both the put and call, Similar results found in Compaq stock and W. Tex crude oil options investment.
Dr. Huang warned Jan 2000 on www.osawh.com and www.sina.com that US  high tech bubble
burst, ready for 50-90 % plunge and July 2001 wanred US entering recession, old economy blue chips  stocks bubble burst ready for 30-50 % correction, DOw , Henseng, Nikkei plunged below 9000
Recent simulation results can be found on  my  chINA OILS UPSTREMA/DOWNSTREAM PROFIT MANAGMENT STRATEGY in Beijin Nov 30, 2001 , Jan 21-22 ini Taipei   recommened to invest oilfutures, and call options made 50 time profits

These systems warned the global hedging fund on the website since June  1998 that US Fed will not and can not raise interest rate to push the dollar higher, US bond soared due to strong dollar and low inflation, while Russia will raise
interest rate to support the Ruble, which will drag the Russian bond down. Could have saved billion dollars LTCM  betting on the wrong side of the interest rates.
Recent simulation results can be found on my Beijin University lecture oon globalcapital marketsasset prices, simulation, risk management May 28-29,2002

Key words: Black-Schole formula, Artificial Intelligence neural net, Asian Financial Crisis Simulation, risk management, commodity, stock, currency, interest rate, options prices

1 Presenter: Warren Huang, Global Investing, Box 130, 706, Sacramento St, San Francisco, Ca 94108, USA,  Fax: 1-510-524-4484 Email : whuang@osawh.com

presented to   Post EUROS  finance and Banking Strategy in Rome, Italy, Nov. 24 and QFM98Computational methods in financial derivatives, Dec 14-16 1998, Conference in Sydney, Australia and Pacific Basin Economy, Finance conference, May 29, 1999

 References:

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