US/ China/Global Macro/Financial economic impact on
Daily Global Gold and Metals Futures Prices and Gold Fund Performance
Simulation/Forecasts OSA
Gold and metal prices
will follow oil prices in summer rebound, recover its recent loss, making
new high challenge 760 in summer due to soaring fuel demand in holiday season
and future weak dollar
by OSA Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2006
==============================================================================================
Dr. Huang, energy forecast
specialist accurately
predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking,
finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown
and rate hikes continue into final quarter
as oil
prices soared from 45 to 69 ,
Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2350, S&P 1250-1350
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets
30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils and
downstream demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 69 in January
2006
==============================================================================================
Operations Simulation Forecast for daily US dollar, Gold futures market prices:
Near term US dollar support by rising rate, trade deficit will be soared to 65-
70 in drag dollar traded in 105- 112 Yen and, 1.247-1.32 Euro ,oil price soared
70 - 82 in summer, gold prices will challenge 750 ,
traded 600-750, Platinum : 1100- 1290,
Silver: 1100- 1253, Copper: 330-430
please visit
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/metal.html
for regular price forecast update and strategic investment workshops
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang copyright 2006 pioneering work of
two master hands
thousands structural dynamic simulators
controlling, forecasts last 20
years global macro economy, daily currency, oil, commodity inflation impact on
daily global
gold, metals futures, derivatives prices, He wrote thousands articles 100
million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times,
Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals
As US Fed and global central banks excessive rate
cuts, tax cuts, money supply growth soared 8 %, excessive domestic
consumer, business demand drives import and trade deficit to 55 billion led to
dollar plunged 50 % vs EURO ( from 0.83 to 1.35), China money supply growth
soared 24 %, resulted excessive demand for housing and auto industry asset
bubbles and cold winter in 2003 lead to oil inventory at 29 year low, pushed
gasoline and heating oil prices over 150 c/gal ,and continue into 2005 summer,
year end, CPI up form 1 % to 4.2 %, wholesale prices up 5 % in despite
Greenspan 14 rate hikes, oil price soared to 69 in Oct. 2005, as US money
supply growth growth soared to 8 % in Feb, 2006 pushed , gold prices soared to
600,
metals prices
soared to 23 year high, CRB soared to 345. US hurricanes and Russian Yukos
interrupted oil production on top of soaring global demand, oil and gold prices
will stay firm into the winter peak demand, and making new high into the summer
Dr. Huang accurately predicted to China oil market conference in Beijing Nov.
2005 that NYMEX will rebound from 55 and break 60 to 64 before Xmas and to 68 in
January,, gasoline testing 160- 230, heating oil retest 200, natural gas
rebound again in January as entering global peak winter demand , heating,
followed by summer driving demand as US facing more rate hikes,
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Macroeconomic Inflation, Global Oil,
Commodities, Currency impact on Gold, Metals Futures Prices , Demand Market
Forces Mechanism:
Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China
finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003
In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not controlled, influenced by any country president,
central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets finance ministers
meeting for strong currency policy. They are controlled by our
currency markets forces modeling of two master hands: interest rates and trade
data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20
years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the
currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, speculating,
chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss
US dollar currency = F (US trade, current account deficit, other country trade
surplus( deficit), interest rate spread)
US CPI = F ( US consumer
spending, Oil prices, Dollar currency )
Oil future price = ( US dollar currency, heating oil future, gasoline future
price )
Gold, Metals Futures Prices = F ( Nymex Oil
, Currency , US CPI
Inflation )
Dr. Huang
pioneered this relationship since 1980, tracking forecasts daily oil prices
from 10 to 55, millions global multinational oils, OPEC visited
www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm for daily oil prices forecasts
accurately predicted Feb
23, 2005 in Beijing conference that oil price rebounded from 49 to 55 in March
due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.333 Euro ., gold price
retest for 445 new high .Currency
from 80 to 255, Yen, 0.84- 1.36 Euro , millions global central banks, banking
finance, importer/exporters visit
www.osawh.com/currency.html for daily 40
global currency forecasts
accurately predicted Oct. 2004 weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price
retest for 455 new high and visit
www.osawh.com/cermerf.html .US
inflation from 1.0 to 13.6, impact on gold futures from 150 to 800. millions
global central banks, banking finance visited
www.osawh.com/goldf.html for daily global metal, gold futures,
fund performance forecasts
He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial
Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal
investment journals tracking last 20 years
daily results, covering various energy, currency, asset bubble burst crisis.
He then has thousands structural dynamic simulators tracking forecasts oil,
currency and US CPI data for reliable
gold futures prices forecasts, all come out of his two master hands
controlling global economic indicators, macro financial, industrial and trade
economics simulation, integration.
Detail simulation results can be found on his website
www.osawh.com
, which visited by millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate
procurement managers, investors since 1998.
He offered thousands lectures to US, China. Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic
program 30 million institutional, private investors and hundreds banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers since 1985.
He has been invited to speak to 24 US, ECB, China, Asian Pacific central bank
governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.
partial lists of table tracking its recent dynamic forecasts
inter-relationships
time 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2004 2004 2005 2006
US CPI 2.2 3.2 1.5 1.0 1.4
2.0 2.5 3.4 4.6
4.5
China CPI -1.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 3.2
4.3 5.2 1.6
4.0
Euro
1.0 0.88 0.83
0.9 1.2 1.29
1.19 1.35 1.17 1.29
Nymex oil 22 30 22 29 40 36
36 51 65
80
Gold futures 256 320 256 330 390 430
370 455 532
750
Platinum 350 425 420 580 700 950
770 875 1009 1300
Silver 5.25 5.00 4,25 5.20 4.50 8.00
5.66 7.77 9.6 1420
Copper 80 80 60 78 80 140
115 150 200
390
Dr. Huang accurately predicted at Singapore Euro-event Asian Finance, capital
market conference, Nov.5. 2003, China finance, capital market conference by
Shanghai, Nov. 25 , 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China economic
outlook, asset prices that US rate hike by May 2004,
and again to Silicon Valley Finance Radio and North American Investors
investment seminar in San Francisco Bay Area May 7, 8, 15, 2004 that US dollar
plunge and stabilize ,oil prices traded 50-57, gold price rebound for new
high traded 430- 479, and
accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 49 and retest 56
due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price
retest for 455 new high.
=== Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit Conference/in-house workshops
====
Dr.
Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and
Capital Market SUMMIT conference Nov.5 three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO,
CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy
and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation
osawhh@citiz.net or
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over thousands of
artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations
Analysis experts system's have been developed simulate, tracking last 25 years
daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver,
feedgrain
commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices ,
hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking,
simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates,
currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity,
industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices simulation, invest
ment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate
CEO, finance, import/ export, currency and equities and related mutual
fund trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of
invest ment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis
Monetary Policy, Global
Oils, Currency, Inflation impact on Gold Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in
gold prices speculations due to inflation/deflation, currency,
oil prices and gold demand and prices slump in global gold futures
prices can be simulated to it's current and future mining cost,
monetary policy impact on gold demand, inventory, ( feedstock, supply
mining costs and dollar exchange rates in the export
countries. numerous proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have
been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate
executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan, China on TV,
radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly
global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed
grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper, lecturing 20 millions
China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing,
sales managers, investors on TV radio programs.
This relationship explain recent dollar
weakness( Yen up to 112, Rupiah to 7000) and weak consumer gasoline and heating
oil demand in Sept and fuel inventory buildup drag gasoline and
heating oil prices from 100 to 65- 75 resulted crude oil plunge to
25-
However, Crude oil prices will rebound in late Nov as cold winter push
heating oil prices up to 75- 85 and crude oil prices back to 26- 31
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product
seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both dip below 50 from 100 as
oil price down to 17
China and CBOT Metals future prices simulation
Gold future prices = F(
production costs, end uses demand (China/US inflation), US dollar exchange rate)
Gold
futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA
Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold
consuming country facing housing market overheated bubble, due to excessive
money supply growth to 20 %, economy getting out of deflation (of -3.6 in 1999,
gold prices made 256 low ) and US dollar plunged from 129 to 105
Yen, 0.83 to 1.29 Euro pushed gold price from 256 to current 426
US/China inflation outlook: US inflation at 1.5 % China at 3.5 %, both
facing strong consumer demand and overheating housing bubbles and manufacturing
near deflation
US dollar outlook: US dollar slide 105 Yen, and 1.29 EURO due
to soaring trade deficit at 43 billion. However weak dollar will boost
export, stability trade deficit below 40
Precious Metal Future
Silver is used for decoration and mostly for photography, Major user US, China
soaring consumer spending, summer travel , excessive money supply, consumer demand supported silver prices above 1450
Platinum is used for decoration and mostly for automobile catalytic converter,
benefited by strong global and US consumer auto demand, recent rebound to
110- 1250
Copper future prices simulation:
Copper bas been used mostly for electronic,
IC, computers, appliances. It s future prices depend very on major downstream export
demand, currency exchange rates)
Copper prices benefited by weak
dollar and strong IC , China construction demand, rebound to 350- 400
This relation tracing accurately copper
price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as
result of Asian crisis late Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit
bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble,
triggered currency depreciation
It rebound as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and weakness in
US dollar.
Gold, metals mining sectors, demand, future prices, corporate earning, stock prices, and
mutual fund performances
Higher gold prices improve gold mining profit margin, but dragged by higher mining
energy costs ( account 30 %), fortunately heating oil stay flat.
Gold mining company and gold future fund enjoyed 50- 100 % return this years due to
soaring gold prices (from256 to 600 )
visit www.kitco.com for daily gold , currency, oils
futures prices
visit www.eagle-gold.com for
2006 Copyright osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang 2002 www.osawh.com / 黃華南博士版權所有