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Daily Gold, Metal Prices
Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010 OSA by
Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering
:US/ China/Global
Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus impact on
Daily Global Gold and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance
Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis, global liquidity, exit strategy impact on Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to , weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, even weak dollar can not save it
Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300 and return to 1200
and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China
Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5
% GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and
inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half
Beware of Oil, Gold
, commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price
bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting
inflation lead to weakness in business and
consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, while
complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted global sovereign debt
bubble burst crisis from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity
prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit
strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 %, will driving dollar to new high
to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to
68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer,
business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control, in
2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in
2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil
demand and lead to oil price peaking out in 2010
Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3
Q and 74- 88 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200-
220 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220- in 2, 3
Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural price will be rebound from4.5-6.0 in 1 Q, 4.0-
5.0 in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,
1200- 1350 in 4Q
US dollar firm due to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK
US dollar in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in
3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q
and 1.45- 1.50 pound in 1 Q, 2 Q and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90 in 2Q, 3Q,
85- 92 in 4 Q,
roactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side Oil Price Simulation : Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak July 4 th driving season, and fuel oil demand from US/China economic stimulus package push oil to 69- 80 , gasoline price 190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 220 , gold to 1000, silver to 160, copper to 325, Aluminum to 0.75 new high 2009 winter peaking , fuel oil to 150- 180 , gold drop to 800- 900, copper to 175-199 , aluminum to 0.60 -0.65 after July summer demand, peaking out .repeating last year oil price peaking out 147 after July 4 th. and plunged to 70- 100 .
Gold price follow oil price rebound to 1000-1050 in 2 Q-3
Q 2009, as oil price
rebound from 50- 75 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure
project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation
project take shape, manufacturing rebound to clunker program and and
housing rebound to first time home buyer tax credit in Sept. and gold price will challenge 1000 - 1250 as oil price soared to
80
by the end of 2009 and early 2010, as US job creation go into full steam However,
weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession
recovery, deflationary pressure remain , falling PPI in China, US,
in 2009 will depress any oil and gold price rally. even weakness in
dollar will not be sufficient to push oil price above 80, gold price
above 1250 in 2009 final quarter and drop to test 1000 support .
Gold prices have to test1000-1100 correction due to
deflationary pressure in slow recession recovery
Repeating last April
2008 tax rebate
resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering
traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving season, and fuel oil
demand from China economic stimulus package and US 2009 tax rebate, 2
billion banking, finance bail out ,led to 50 % gain in stock prices
resulted wealth push oil to 60- 75 , gasoline price
190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200 new
high 2009
peaking out in June-July-Aug. Sept., oil,
will drop to 55- 69 , Gasoline to 140- 180 , fuel oil to 150- 190
, Natural gas to 2.4 to 4.0 after Aug summer demand,
peaking out
during Sept- Nov off season
and back to 70- 82 fuel oil rebound to 190- 240, gasoline to 180-200, natural
gas to 3.50- 5.0 in 2009 year end, early spring 2010 cold winter swing peak
demand by
Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering, Proactive Structural
Oil, Energy Price mechanism Simulation
Forecast
Real time Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China Oil,
Natural Gas Market Price
market forces mechanism
tracking, forecast, risk hedging
Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July
oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100
due to decline in tax rebate demand impact
and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog
that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax
rebate in July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after
July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession
Speculation
over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 50,
consumer and business sending improved by 170 billion tax rebate check,
and increased summer gasoline, jet fuel oil demand, US dollar plunge from 1.32
euro to 1.45, 98- to 94 Yen, 1.55 to 1.65 pound due to 1.8 trillion budget
deficit , amount to 70 % of GDP, driving oil price to 56 in May, challenge
60- 78 during May 31- July 4, holiday peak demand. Driving Alumina price
to 0.79, copper price
rebound to 225- 250 gold price to 940-1000 , silver price to 14- 16.00
Gold and metal prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, inflation
rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July 2008
rebound, making new high challenge 950- 1000 . Gold price bubble
burst , plunged to 700 , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession ,
inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32 ,dollar
plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering
second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring
jobless rate and plunging housing prices .r
Gold price retest 700 -800 , oil price retest 32 as US and global facing
deep recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 6500 in
1 Q 2009
Proactive Structural Dynamic
Demand Side Oil , metal Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating last April tax rebate
resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US
entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving
season, and fuel oil demand from China, US economic stimulus package. Oil
price stay above 60 near memorial day,
Improved May Jobless to 345000 and
jobless claim to 601000, cut in May foreclosure rate and retail sale
gain boost July oil, fuel, and gasoline futures and cash
price peaking out 65 -78 in July heading back to 60-65 after July ,
repeating last year tax rebate peaking out at 146
in July 2008 , drag by global deep economic recession, with plunging consumer, business
demand, strong dollar , back to 50 before summer demand ends.
(demand side
prices mechanism forecasts) OSA
pioneer
Dr
Warren Huang predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong ,
Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic
Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :
US tax rebate in
2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel
season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210 demand in manufacturing as ISM PMI
index rebound from 33 to 42 ( China from 36 to 53),
weak dollar will lead to
gold price follow oil price challenge 1000, copper challenge
250, aluminum challenge 0.79,
silver
to 16 ,
natural
gas challenge 5- 6
this summer and give up its
gain due to the end of China strategic reserve purchase for economic
stimulus plan in April 2009. and give up all its summer gain after July Global
commodities, metal,(
copper, zinc, aluminum
oil, suffering by global deep recession, plunging
consumer, business demand, facing bubble burst with oil price plunged to
50 with rebound in the final quarter supported by weak dollar and US/China economic stimulus
job creation plan
by OSA Dr. Warren Huang copyright
2008-2009
Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast
months ahead last 20 years US/global Housing mortgage
default, Credit, Financial Crisis
, Oil, Commodities, Metal Asset Price Bubble Burst
Operations
Simulation Analysis ,
The Causes,
onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession,
Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic
Instability Basel II credit, Market,
Operational Risks Early Warning
Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, metals, oil, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms
Do not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra
short strategy for
China
Metal, oil, commodity, Forex Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging 2009
Conference,
Pudong, China, March, 2009
by
EUROMONEY
Trillion Dollar Recession Risks
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
program China
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,
Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus
Impact on Economy, Capital Markets Forecast by
Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity,
Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive Structural
Asset Pricing pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang
Post-
Conference Master Class Strategic
Multi-class Asset Allocation
Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global
Fund World,
Asset
Allocation 2008,- 2009
by
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management
Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar
4- 6, 2008
Reservation
for your in
house workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
risk management panelist and
planned
full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on
Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to
150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII
executives
US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM
manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow
Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9
%, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump
continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate
cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
The real causes of current mortgage,
credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial,
monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks
valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities
asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money
supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on
30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM)
and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and
financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset
Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street
Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008
to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge
30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond,
oil, commodities,
metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction
Cause
Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic
Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices
plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones
after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test
1250, S&P test 700 low,
oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60,Gas
oil from1300 to 650 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to
44 as global economy enter deep recession by year end,
despite US 700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit
crisis
details on
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 double dip
inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 % , Dow Jones
test 7000- 8000 NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50 % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1800 through early 2009 until
economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing
prices still up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer
spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite
China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China
need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 % next year
to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft
landing and start of bull market stock rally.
US/China
2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles
Overheating, and bubble burst, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop :
Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold,
Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short
strategy
impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,
Derivatives Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation, Forecast, ETF
Risks Hedging
, Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Asset Pricing,
Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump
continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession
and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new
low and oil above 110 gold challenge 1000,,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund despite
Fed rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1600- 1800 till 2009
Do not miss this proactive
structural price mechanism based strategic
financial modeling and risks valuation, simulation for investment ,
trillion dollar recession hedging strategy
workshops series by
OSA proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
Millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and
wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the
wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement
==============================================================================================
==============================================================================================
Operations Simulation Forecast for daily US dollar, Gold futures market prices:
please visit
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/metal.html
for regular price forecast update and strategic investment workshops
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang copyright 2006 pioneering work of
two master hands
thousands structural dynamic simulators
controlling, forecasts last 20
years global macro economy, daily currency, oil, commodity inflation impact on
daily global
gold, metals futures, derivatives prices, He wrote thousands articles 100
million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times,
Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals
As US Fed and global central banks excessive rate
cuts, tax cuts, money supply growth soared 8 %, excessive domestic
consumer, business demand drives import and trade deficit to 55 billion led to
dollar plunged 50 % vs EURO ( from 0.83 to 1.35), China money supply growth
soared 24 %, resulted excessive demand for housing and auto industry asset
bubbles and cold winter in 2003 lead to oil inventory at 29 year low, pushed
gasoline and heating oil prices over 150 c/gal ,and continue into 2005 summer,
year end, CPI up form 1 % to 4.2 %, wholesale prices up 5 % in despite
Greenspan 14 rate hikes, oil price soared to 69 in Oct. 2005, as US money
supply growth growth soared to 8 % in Feb, 2006 pushed , gold prices soared to
600,
metals prices
soared to 23 year high, CRB soared to 345. US hurricanes and Russian Yukos
interrupted oil production on top of soaring global demand, oil and gold prices
will stay firm into the winter peak demand, and making new high into the summer
Dr. Huang accurately predicted to China oil market conference in Beijing Nov.
2005 that NYMEX will rebound from 55 and break 60 to 64 before Xmas and to 68 in
January,, gasoline testing 160- 230, heating oil retest 200, natural gas
rebound again in January as entering global peak winter demand , heating,
followed by summer driving demand as US facing more rate hikes,
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Macroeconomic Inflation, Global Oil,
Commodities, Currency impact on Gold, Metals Futures Prices , Demand Market
Forces Mechanism:
Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China
finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003
In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not controlled, influenced by any country president,
central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets finance ministers
meeting for strong currency policy. They are controlled by our
currency markets forces modeling of two master hands: interest rates and trade
data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20
years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the
currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, speculating,
chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss
US dollar currency = F (US trade, current account deficit, other country trade
surplus( deficit), interest rate spread)
US CPI = F ( US consumer
spending, Oil prices, Dollar currency )
Oil future price = ( US dollar currency, heating oil future, gasoline future
price )
Gold, Metals Futures Prices = F ( Nymex Oil
, Currency , US CPI
Inflation )
Dr. Huang
pioneered this relationship since 1980, tracking forecasts daily oil prices
from 10 to 55, millions global multinational oils, OPEC visited
www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm for daily oil prices forecasts
accurately predicted Feb
23, 2005 in Beijing conference that oil price rebounded from 49 to 55 in March
due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.333 Euro ., gold price
retest for 445 new high .Currency
from 80 to 255, Yen, 0.84- 1.36 Euro , millions global central banks, banking
finance, importer/exporters visit
www.osawh.com/currency.html for daily 40
global currency forecasts
accurately predicted Oct. 2004 weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price
retest for 455 new high and visit
www.osawh.com/cermerf.html .US
inflation from 1.0 to 13.6, impact on gold futures from 150 to 800. millions
global central banks, banking finance visited
www.osawh.com/goldf.html for daily global metal, gold futures,
fund performance forecasts
He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial
Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal
investment journals tracking last 20 years
daily results, covering various energy, currency, asset bubble burst crisis.
He then has thousands structural dynamic simulators tracking forecasts oil,
currency and US CPI data for reliable
gold futures prices forecasts, all come out of his two master hands
controlling global economic indicators, macro financial, industrial and trade
economics simulation, integration.
Detail simulation results can be found on his website
www.osawh.com
, which visited by millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate
procurement managers, investors since 1998.
He offered thousands lectures to US, China. Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic
program 30 million institutional, private investors and hundreds banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers since 1985.
He has been invited to speak to 24 US, ECB, China, Asian Pacific central bank
governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.
partial lists of table tracking its recent dynamic forecasts
inter-relationships
time 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009
US CPI
2.2 3.2
1.5 1.0
1.4 2.0
2.5 3.4 4.6
4.5 2.0 5.5
-1.0
China CPI -1.0
0.1 1.0
1.4 1.5
3.2 4.3
5.2 1.6 4.0
5.0 7.0
-2.0
Euro
1.0 0.88 0.83
0.9 1.2 1.29
1.19 1.35 1.17 1.29
1.55 1.36 1.45
Nymex oil 22
30 22
29 40
36 36
51 65 80
100 60 90 50-70
Gold futures 256
320 256 330
390 430 370
455 532 750 990
660- 850 850- 1000
Platinum 350 425 420 580 700 950
770 875 1009 1300
1500 1000 1000- 1290
Silver 5.25 5.00 4,25 5.20 4.50 8.00
5.66 7.77 9.6 1420
1700 1080 1090 -1500
Copper 80 80 60 78 80 140
115 150 200
390 400 200-220 200- 250
Dr. Huang accurately predicted at Singapore Euro-event Asian Finance, capital
market conference, Nov.5. 2003, China finance, capital market conference by
Shanghai, Nov. 25 , 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China economic
outlook, asset prices that US rate hike by May 2004,
and again to Silicon Valley Finance Radio and North American Investors
investment seminar in San Francisco Bay Area May 7, 8, 15, 2004 that US dollar
plunge and stabilize ,oil prices traded 50-57, gold price rebound for new
high traded 430- 479, and
accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 49 and retest 56
due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price
retest for 455 new high.
=== Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit Conference/in-house workshops
====
Dr.
Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and
Capital Market SUMMIT conference Nov.5 three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO,
CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy
and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation
osawhh@citiz.net or
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over thousands of
artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations
Analysis experts system's have been developed simulate, tracking last 25 years
daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver,
feedgrain
commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices ,
hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking,
simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates,
currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity,
industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices simulation, invest
ment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate
CEO, finance, import/ export, currency and equities and related mutual
fund trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of
invest ment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis
Monetary Policy, Global
Oils, Currency, Inflation impact on Gold Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in
gold prices speculations due to inflation/deflation, currency,
oil prices and gold demand and prices slump in global gold futures
prices can be simulated to it's current and future mining cost,
monetary policy impact on gold demand, inventory, ( feedstock, supply
mining costs and dollar exchange rates in the export
countries. numerous proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have
been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate
executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan, China on TV,
radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly
global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed
grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper, lecturing 20 millions
China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing,
sales managers, investors on TV radio programs.
This relationship explain recent dollar
weakness( Yen up to 112, Rupiah to 7000) and weak consumer gasoline and heating
oil demand in Sept and fuel inventory buildup drag gasoline and
heating oil prices from 100 to 65- 75 resulted crude oil plunge to
25-
However, Crude oil prices will rebound in late Nov as cold winter push
heating oil prices up to 75- 85 and crude oil prices back to 26- 31
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product
seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both dip below 50 from 100 as
oil price down to 17
China and CBOT Metals future prices simulation
Gold future prices = F(
production costs, end uses demand (China/US inflation), US dollar exchange rate)
Gold
futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA
Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold
consuming country facing housing market overheated bubble, due to excessive
money supply growth to 20 %, economy getting out of deflation (of -3.6 in 1999,
gold prices made 256 low ) and US dollar plunged from 129 to 105
Yen, 0.83 to 1.29 Euro pushed gold price from 256 to current 426
US/China inflation outlook: US inflation at 1.5 % China at 3.5 %, both
facing strong consumer demand and overheating housing bubbles and manufacturing
near deflation
US dollar outlook: US dollar slide 105 Yen, and 1.29 EURO due
to soaring trade deficit at 43 billion. However weak dollar will boost
export, stability trade deficit below 40
Precious Metal Future
Silver is used for decoration and mostly for photography, Major user US, China
soaring consumer spending, summer travel , excessive money supply, consumer demand supported silver prices above 1450
Platinum is used for decoration and mostly for automobile catalytic converter,
benefited by strong global and US consumer auto demand, recent rebound to
110- 1250
Copper future prices simulation:
Copper bas been used mostly for electronic,
IC, computers, appliances. It s future prices depend very on major downstream export
demand, currency exchange rates)
Copper prices benefited by weak
dollar and strong IC , China construction demand, rebound to 350- 400
This relation tracing accurately copper
price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as
result of Asian crisis late Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit
bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble,
triggered currency depreciation
It rebound as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and weakness in
US dollar.
Gold, metals mining sectors, demand, future prices, corporate earning, stock prices, and
mutual fund performances
Higher gold prices improve gold mining profit margin, but dragged by higher mining
energy costs ( account 30 %), fortunately heating oil stay flat.
Gold mining company and gold future fund enjoyed 50- 100 % return this years due to
soaring gold prices (from256 to 600 )
visit www.kitco.com for daily gold , currency, oils
futures prices
visit www.eagle-gold.com for
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US , EURO stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010 all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, Euro area debt crisis ( despite one trillion bail out to support Euro and PIGS debt crisis will not be able to solve the worst economic, financial crisis in EURO history since WWI, it will ,drag GDP growth to 1 %and recession , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.20 , US Fed to remove more than 1 trillion excessive liquidity from capital market already cut m2 money supply growth from year ago 10 % peak to March 1.3 %euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half , facing credit tightening, rate hike as summer inflation heat up , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by year end , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth double dip to below 2.5 % by year end . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction.
Dollar reach 4 year high against Euro to 1.22, Euro debt crisis drag economy to the edge of recession and China, Asian credit tightening fighting housing price bubble, inflation facing GDP slowdown to 7.5 % 4Q, US removing excessive liquidity, credit tightening, M2 money supply growth drop to 1.3%, facing slowdown in the second half after tax rebate and housing stimulus is over, oil prices plunge fro 88 to test 66- 69 near term, rebound to 82, gold price facing resistance above 1250 due to strong dollar and econmic slowdown, plunging oil prices, will be trade 1200- 1260.
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P stock index forecasts
Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , London Financial Times index test 5000 , DAX test 5200 and may test in second financial crisis dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, inflation control, US China/Asian slowdown,