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US/ China/Global Macro/Financial economic impact on Daily Global  Gold  and Metals Futures Prices and Gold Fund Performance   Simulation/Forecasts OSA
 Gold and metal prices will follow oil prices in summer rebound, recover its recent loss, making new high challenge 760 in summer due to soaring fuel demand in holiday season  and future weak dollar

by OSA  Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2006
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 Dr. Huang, energy forecast specialist accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into final quarter  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 ,  Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2350, S&P 1250-1350 
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets 30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils and downstream demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 69 in January 2006
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Operations Simulation Forecast for daily US dollar, Gold futures market prices:
Near term US dollar support by rising rate,  trade deficit will be soared to 65- 70 in drag dollar traded in 105- 112 Yen and, 1.247-1.32 Euro ,oil price soared 70 - 82 in  summer,  gold prices  will challenge 750 , traded 600-750, Platinum : 1100- 1290, Silver: 1100- 1253, Copper: 330-430

please visit www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/metal.html for regular price forecast update and strategic investment workshops
by OSA  pioneer Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2006 pioneering work of two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators  controlling, forecasts last 20 years global macro economy, daily  currency, oil, commodity inflation impact on daily global  gold, metals futures, derivatives prices,  He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals

As US Fed and global central banks excessive rate cuts, tax cuts, money supply growth soared 8 %, excessive domestic consumer, business demand drives import and trade deficit to 55 billion led to  dollar plunged 50 %  vs EURO ( from 0.83 to 1.35), China money supply growth soared 24 %, resulted excessive demand for housing and auto industry asset bubbles and cold winter in  2003 lead to oil inventory at 29 year low,  pushed gasoline and heating oil prices over 150 c/gal ,and continue into 2005 summer, year end, CPI up form 1 % to 4.2 %, wholesale prices up 5 % in  despite Greenspan 14 rate hikes,  oil price soared to 69  in Oct. 2005, as US money supply growth growth soared to 8 % in Feb, 2006 pushed , gold prices soared to 600, metals prices  soared to 23 year high, CRB soared to 345.  US hurricanes and Russian Yukos  interrupted oil production on top of soaring global demand, oil and gold prices will stay firm into the winter peak demand, and making new high into the summer  Dr. Huang accurately predicted  to China oil market conference in Beijing Nov. 2005 that NYMEX will rebound from 55 and break 60 to 64 before Xmas and to 68 in January,, gasoline testing 160- 230,  heating oil retest 200, natural gas rebound  again in January as entering global peak winter demand , heating, followed by summer driving demand as US facing more rate hikes,
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Macroeconomic Inflation, Global Oil, Commodities, Currency impact on Gold, Metals Futures Prices , Demand Market Forces Mechanism:

Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003   In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not  controlled, influenced by any country president, central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets  finance ministers meeting for strong  currency policy.  They are controlled by our currency markets forces modeling  of  two master hands: interest rates and trade data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20 years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, speculating, chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss

US dollar currency = F (US trade, current account deficit, other country trade surplus( deficit), interest rate spread)
US CPI = F ( US consumer spending, Oil prices, Dollar currency )
Oil  future price = ( US dollar currency, heating oil future, gasoline future price )
Gold, Metals Futures Prices = F ( Nymex Oil ,  Currency , US CPI  Inflation )

Dr. Huang pioneered this relationship since 1980, tracking  forecasts daily oil prices from 10 to 55, millions global multinational oils, OPEC visited www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm for daily oil prices forecasts  accurately predicted  Feb 23, 2005 in Beijing conference that oil price rebounded from 49 to 55 in March due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.333 Euro ., gold price retest for 445 new high .Currency from 80 to 255, Yen, 0.84- 1.36 Euro , millions global central banks, banking finance, importer/exporters visit www.osawh.com/currency.html  for daily 40 global currency forecasts   accurately predicted Oct. 2004   weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high and visit www.osawh.com/cermerf.html .US inflation from 1.0 to 13.6,  impact on gold futures from 150 to 800.  millions global central banks, banking finance visited  www.osawh.com/goldf.html  for daily  global metal, gold futures, fund performance forecasts   He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals tracking last 20 years daily results, covering various energy, currency, asset bubble burst crisis.
He then has thousands structural dynamic simulators tracking forecasts oil, currency and US CPI data for reliable gold futures prices forecasts, all come out of his two master hands controlling global economic indicators, macro financial, industrial and trade economics simulation, integration.
Detail simulation results can be found on his website www.osawh.com  , which visited by millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate procurement managers,  investors since 1998.
He offered thousands lectures to US, China. Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program 30 million institutional, private  investors and hundreds banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers since 1985.
He has been invited to speak to 24 US, ECB, China, Asian Pacific central bank governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.

partial lists of table tracking its recent dynamic forecasts  inter-relationships
time                  1999      2000   2001     2002    2003     2004     2004     2004   2005 2006
US       CPI         2.2        3.2       1.5       1.0       1.4       2.0       2.5        3.4    4.6        4.5
China  CPI        -1.0        0.1       1.0       1.4       1.5       3.2      4.3         5.2    1.6         4.0
Euro                   1.0        0.88     0.83      0.9      1.2       1.29    1.19       1.35  1.17    1.29
Nymex oil          22         30        22        29        40       36        36         51      65        80
Gold futures       256       320      256      330      390      430      370       455    532    750
Platinum            350       425      420      580      700      950      770       875    1009  1300
Silver                 5.25      5.00     4,25     5.20     4.50     8.00     5.66      7.77    9.6   1420
Copper               80        80        60        78       80        140      115       150     200     390

Dr. Huang accurately predicted at Singapore Euro-event Asian Finance, capital market conference, Nov.5. 2003, China finance, capital market conference by Shanghai, Nov. 25 , 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices that US rate hike by May 2004, and again to Silicon Valley Finance Radio and North American Investors investment seminar in San Francisco Bay Area May 7, 8, 15, 2004 that  US dollar plunge and  stabilize ,oil prices traded  50-57, gold price  rebound for new high traded  430- 479,  and accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 49 and retest 56 due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high.
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com

Over thousands  of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations Analysis  experts system's have been developed  simulate, tracking last 25 years   daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver, feedgrain commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices , hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking, simulate daily  US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis  and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices  simulation, invest ment,  risk  management for helping  20 millions global  corporate CEO,  finance, import/ export,  currency  and equities and related mutual fund  trading, procurement, marketing  managers, investors to take advantage of invest ment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis   
Monetary Policy, Global Oils, Currency, Inflation impact on  Gold  Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in  gold prices   speculations due to inflation/deflation,  currency, oil prices and gold   demand and prices slump in global gold futures prices  can be simulated to it's current and future  mining cost, monetary policy impact on gold demand, inventory, ( feedstock, supply  mining   costs  and  dollar exchange rates in the export countries.  numerous proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan, China  on TV, radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper, lecturing 20 millions China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers, investors on TV radio programs.   

B China, NYMEX and global Energy Futures Upstream/Downstream prices simulation
Energy (crude oils, gas oils, fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas, propane) future prices have been relation to their end use seasonal demand, inventory (which closely related to monetary policy), and production costs, OPEC supply and US dollar exchange rate ,  
Dr Huang accurately predicted in 2000, Crude oils will drop to 29 after US SPR release 30 million barrel oil in. Nov. but will rebound to 35 before Nov. as  snow in US midwest.
Mid-east tension,  speculation of oil to 37, heating oil to all time high 115, gasoline to 99 will be short life corn, cotton, copper prices follow oil prices up 20 % ,  
US recession and 911 in 2001 drag demand and price for oil to 16.5 .and rebound to 29 in 2002 April due to strong US consumer demand for gasoline from 52 to 82

Global Crude oil future prices = (US consumer demand, currency exchange rate, US gasoline price, US fuel price )

This relationship explain recent dollar weakness( Yen up to 112, Rupiah to 7000) and weak consumer gasoline and heating oil demand  in Sept  and fuel inventory buildup drag gasoline and heating oil prices from 100 to  65- 75 resulted crude oil plunge to  25-
However,  Crude oil prices will rebound in late Nov as cold winter push heating oil prices up to 75- 85  and crude oil prices back to 26- 31
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both  dip below  50 from 100 as oil price down to 17
The financial    derivatives, options  prices, and Risk Hedging simulation
Daily Currency and Interest futures   simulation

Gold  future prices = F(  production costs, end uses demand (China/US inflation),  US dollar exchange rate)

Gold  futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA

Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold consuming country facing housing market overheated bubble, due to excessive money supply growth to 20 %, economy getting out of deflation (of -3.6 in 1999, gold prices made 256 low )  and US dollar plunged  from 129 to 105 Yen, 0.83 to 1.29 Euro pushed gold price from 256 to current 426
 
US/China inflation outlook:  US inflation at 1.5 % China at 3.5 %, both facing strong consumer demand and overheating housing bubbles and manufacturing near deflation
US dollar outlook:  US dollar slide  105 Yen, and 1.29 EURO  due to soaring trade deficit at 43  billion. However weak dollar will boost export, stability trade deficit below  40
 
As China overheated economy and US recover, will push inflation, oil prices higher, push gold , metal, commodity price higher, however will be drag by dollar  rebound due to US falling trade deficit, due to China 10 billion purchasing US  airplanes, auto, chips, cotton, soybean and future interest rate hikes continue into summer 2006   

Copper prices benefited by weak dollar and strong IC , China construction demand, rebound to  350- 400

This relation tracing accurately copper price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as result of Asian crisis late  Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble, triggered currency depreciation
It rebound  as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and weakness in US dollar.

Gold, metals mining sectors, demand, future prices, corporate earning, stock prices, and mutual fund performances
Higher gold prices improve gold mining profit margin, but dragged by higher mining energy  costs ( account 30 %), fortunately heating oil stay flat.
Gold mining company and gold future fund enjoyed 50- 100 % return this years due to soaring gold prices (from256 to  600 )
visit www.kitco.com for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices
visit www.eagle-gold.com  for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices, mining companies gold fund  performance
visit  http://tw.money.yahoo.com/fund/d/2813.html for top gold fund performance

          2006  Copyright osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang 2002 www.osawh.com / 黃華南博士版權所有

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