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Daily Gold, Metal Prices Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010  OSA  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering  :US/ China/Global  Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus  impact on Daily Global  Gold  and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance
　

 Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis, global liquidity, exit strategy impact on Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops

 Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to  ,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it  

 
Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300  and return to 1200 and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half 
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 %, will driving dollar to new high to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound  drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to 68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010 
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in 2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2010
 Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3 Q  and 74- 88 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200- 220 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220-  in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural   price will be rebound from4.5-6.0  in 1 Q,  4.0- 5.0  in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,  1200- 1350  in 4Q
US dollar firm due  to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK US dollar  in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q  
and 1.45- 1.50  pound in 1 Q, 2 Q  and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90    in 2Q, 3Q,  85- 92  in   4 Q,
　

roactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation : Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak July 4 th driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from US/China economic stimulus package push oil to 69- 80 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 220 , gold to 1000, silver to 160, copper to 325, Aluminum to 0.75 new high 2009 winter  peaking    , fuel oil to 150- 180 , gold drop to 800- 900, copper to 175-199 , aluminum to 0.60 -0.65 after July summer demand, peaking out .repeating last year oil price peaking out 147 after July 4 th. and plunged to 70- 100 .

Gold price follow oil price rebound  to 1000-1050  in 2 Q-3 Q 2009, as oil price rebound from 50- 75 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, manufacturing  rebound to clunker program and and housing rebound to first time home buyer tax credit  in Sept.  and gold price will challenge 1000 - 1250 as oil price soared to 80 by the end of 2009 and early 2010, as US job creation go into full steam However,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, deflationary pressure remain ,   falling PPI in China, US, in 2009 will depress any oil and gold price rally. even weakness in dollar will not be sufficient to push oil price above 80, gold price above 1250 in 2009 final  quarter and drop to test 1000 support . Gold prices have to test1000-1100 correction due to deflationary pressure in slow recession recovery

 Repeating last April  2008 tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China economic stimulus package  and US 2009 tax rebate, 2 billion banking, finance bail out ,led to 50 % gain in stock prices resulted wealth push oil to 60- 75 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200  new high 2009  peaking out in June-July-Aug. Sept., oil,    will drop to 55- 69 , Gasoline to 140- 180  , fuel oil to 150- 190 , Natural gas to 2.4 to 4.0 after Aug summer demand, peaking out during Sept- Nov off season  and back to 70- 82 fuel oil rebound to 190- 240, gasoline to 180-200, natural gas to 3.50- 5.0  in 2009 year end, early spring 2010 cold  winter swing  peak demand  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering, Proactive Structural Oil, Energy Price mechanism Simulation Forecast Real time  Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China Oil, Natural Gas  Market Price  market forces mechanism tracking, forecast, risk hedging

Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100 due to decline in tax rebate demand impact
and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax rebate in  July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession

Speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to  oil price rebound to 50,  consumer and business sending improved by 170 billion  tax rebate check, and increased summer gasoline, jet fuel oil demand, US dollar plunge from 1.32 euro to 1.45, 98- to 94 Yen, 1.55 to 1.65 pound due to 1.8 trillion budget deficit , amount to 70 % of GDP, driving oil price to 56 in May, challenge 60- 78  during May 31- July 4, holiday peak demand. Driving Alumina price to 0.79, copper price rebound to 225- 250 gold price to 940-1000 , silver price to 14- 16.00
Gold and metal prices  followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 950- 1000 . Gold price bubble burst , plunged to 700  , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession , inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged  from 147 to 32  ,dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession,  soaring  jobless rate and plunging housing prices .r
Gold price   retest 700 -800 , oil price retest 32  as US and global facing  deep recession resulted deflation , and  Dow Jones plunged to below 6500 in 1 Q 2009 

 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil , metal Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China, US  economic stimulus package. Oil price stay above 60  near memorial day, Improved May Jobless   to 345000  and jobless claim to 601000, cut in May foreclosure rate  and  retail sale gain boost July  oil, fuel, and gasoline futures and cash price peaking out 65 -78 in   July  heading back to 60-65  after July , repeating last year tax rebate peaking out at  146  in July 2008 , drag by global deep economic recession, with plunging consumer, business demand,  strong dollar , back to 50 before summer demand ends.
(demand side prices mechanism forecasts) OSA pioneer  Dr Warren Huang predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210  demand in manufacturing  as ISM PMI index rebound from 33 to 42 ( China from 36 to 53), weak dollar will lead to  gold price follow oil price challenge 1000, copper challenge 250, aluminum challenge 0.79,  silver to 16 , natural gas challenge 5- 6  this summer and give up its gain  due to the end of China strategic reserve purchase for economic stimulus plan in April 2009.  and give up all its summer gain after July   Global commodities, metal,( copper, zinc, aluminum oil, suffering by global deep recession, plunging consumer, business demand, facing bubble burst with   oil price plunged to 50 with   rebound in the final quarter  supported by weak dollar and US/China economic stimulus job creation plan 

by OSA  Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2008-2009

 Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast months ahead  last 20 years US/global  Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial Crisis , Oil, Commodities, Metal Asset Price Bubble Burst Operations Simulation Analysis , The Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession, Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic Instability Basel II credit, Market, Operational  Risks Early Warning 

               Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, metals, oil, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for
China Metal, oil, commodity, Forex Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
             Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
 and
 Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
    Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.

 US/China 2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles Overheating, and bubble burst, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
 impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,  Derivatives  Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, ETF  Risks Hedging , Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new low and oil above 110 gold challenge 1000,, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1600- 1800 till 2009 

Do not miss this proactive structural price mechanism based strategic financial modeling and risks valuation, simulation for  investment , trillion dollar recession hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer   Dr.Warren Huang
Millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 
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Operations Simulation Forecast for daily US dollar, Gold futures market prices:

please visit www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/metal.html for regular price forecast update and strategic investment workshops
by OSA  pioneer Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2006 pioneering work of two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators  controlling, forecasts last 20 years global macro economy, daily  currency, oil, commodity inflation impact on daily global  gold, metals futures, derivatives prices,  He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals

As US Fed and global central banks excessive rate cuts, tax cuts, money supply growth soared 8 %, excessive domestic consumer, business demand drives import and trade deficit to 55 billion led to  dollar plunged 50 %  vs EURO ( from 0.83 to 1.35), China money supply growth soared 24 %, resulted excessive demand for housing and auto industry asset bubbles and cold winter in  2003 lead to oil inventory at 29 year low,  pushed gasoline and heating oil prices over 150 c/gal ,and continue into 2005 summer, year end, CPI up form 1 % to 4.2 %, wholesale prices up 5 % in  despite Greenspan 14 rate hikes,  oil price soared to 69  in Oct. 2005, as US money supply growth growth soared to 8 % in Feb, 2006 pushed , gold prices soared to 600, metals prices  soared to 23 year high, CRB soared to 345.  US hurricanes and Russian Yukos  interrupted oil production on top of soaring global demand, oil and gold prices will stay firm into the winter peak demand, and making new high into the summer  Dr. Huang accurately predicted  to China oil market conference in Beijing Nov. 2005 that NYMEX will rebound from 55 and break 60 to 64 before Xmas and to 68 in January,, gasoline testing 160- 230,  heating oil retest 200, natural gas rebound  again in January as entering global peak winter demand , heating, followed by summer driving demand as US facing more rate hikes,
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Macroeconomic Inflation, Global Oil, Commodities, Currency impact on Gold, Metals Futures Prices , Demand Market Forces Mechanism:
Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003   In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not  controlled, influenced by any country president, central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets  finance ministers meeting for strong  currency policy.  They are controlled by our currency markets forces modeling  of  two master hands: interest rates and trade data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20 years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, speculating, chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss

 US dollar currency = F (US trade, current account deficit, other country trade surplus( deficit), interest rate spread)
US CPI = F ( US consumer spending, Oil prices, Dollar currency )
Oil  future price = ( US dollar currency, heating oil future, gasoline future price )
Gold, Metals Futures Prices = F ( Nymex Oil ,  Currency , US CPI  Inflation )

Dr. Huang pioneered this relationship since 1980, tracking  forecasts daily oil prices from 10 to 55, millions global multinational oils, OPEC visited www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm for daily oil prices forecasts  accurately predicted  Feb 23, 2005 in Beijing conference that oil price rebounded from 49 to 55 in March due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.333 Euro ., gold price retest for 445 new high .Currency from 80 to 255, Yen, 0.84- 1.36 Euro , millions global central banks, banking finance, importer/exporters visit www.osawh.com/currency.html  for daily 40 global currency forecasts   accurately predicted Oct. 2004   weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high and visit www.osawh.com/cermerf.html .US inflation from 1.0 to 13.6,  impact on gold futures from 150 to 800.  millions global central banks, banking finance visited  www.osawh.com/goldf.html  for daily  global metal, gold futures, fund performance forecasts   He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals tracking last 20 years daily results, covering various energy, currency, asset bubble burst crisis.
He then has thousands structural dynamic simulators tracking forecasts oil, currency and US CPI data for reliable gold futures prices forecasts, all come out of his two master hands controlling global economic indicators, macro financial, industrial and trade economics simulation, integration.
Detail simulation results can be found on his website www.osawh.com  , which visited by millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate procurement managers,  investors since 1998.
He offered thousands lectures to US, China. Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program 30 million institutional, private  investors and hundreds banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers since 1985.
He has been invited to speak to 24 US, ECB, China, Asian Pacific central bank governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.

partial lists of table tracking its recent dynamic forecasts  inter-relationships
time                  1999      2000   2001     2002    2003     2004     2004     2004   2005 2006 2007  2008     2009
US       CPI         2.2        3.2       1.5       1.0       1.4       2.0       2.5        3.4    4.6        4.5     2.0      5.5       -1.0
China  CPI        -1.0        0.1       1.0       1.4       1.5       3.2      4.3         5.2    1.6         4.0   5.0      7.0        -2.0
Euro                   1.0        0.88     0.83      0.9      1.2       1.29    1.19       1.35  1.17    1.29    1.55    1.36      1.45
Nymex oil          22         30        22        29        40       36        36         51      65        80      100  60 90        50-70
Gold futures       256       320      256      330      390      430      370       455    532    750   990    660- 850  850- 1000
Platinum            350       425      420      580      700      950      770       875    1009  1300  1500   1000     1000- 1290
Silver                 5.25      5.00     4,25     5.20     4.50     8.00     5.66      7.77    9.6   1420    1700  1080     1090 -1500
Copper               80        80        60        78       80        140      115       150     200     390    400     200-220   200- 250

Dr. Huang accurately predicted at Singapore Euro-event Asian Finance, capital market conference, Nov.5. 2003, China finance, capital market conference by Shanghai, Nov. 25 , 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices that US rate hike by May 2004, and again to Silicon Valley Finance Radio and North American Investors investment seminar in San Francisco Bay Area May 7, 8, 15, 2004 that  US dollar plunge and  stabilize ,oil prices traded  50-57, gold price  rebound for new high traded  430- 479,  and accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 49 and retest 56 due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high.
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
 Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com

Over thousands  of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations Analysis  experts system's have been developed  simulate, tracking last 25 years   daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver, feedgrain commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices , hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking, simulate daily  US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis  and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials,  financial futures, options prices  simulation, invest ment,  risk  management for helping  20 millions global  corporate CEO,  finance, import/ export,  currency  and equities and related mutual fund  trading, procurement, marketing  managers, investors to take advantage of invest ment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis   
Monetary Policy, Global Oils, Currency, Inflation impact on  Gold  Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in  gold prices   speculations due to inflation/deflation,  currency, oil prices and gold   demand and prices slump in global gold futures prices  can be simulated to it's current and future  mining cost, monetary policy impact on gold demand, inventory, ( feedstock, supply  mining   costs  and  dollar exchange rates in the export countries.  numerous proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan, China  on TV, radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper, lecturing 20 millions China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers, investors on TV radio programs.   

B China, NYMEX and global Energy Futures Upstream/Downstream prices simulation
Energy (crude oils, gas oils, fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas, propane) future prices have been relation to their end use seasonal demand, inventory (which closely related to monetary policy), and production costs, OPEC supply and US dollar exchange rate ,  
Dr Huang accurately predicted in 2000, Crude oils will drop to 29 after US SPR release 30 million barrel oil in. Nov. but will rebound to 35 before Nov. as  snow in US midwest.
Mid-east tension,  speculation of oil to 37, heating oil to all time high 115, gasoline to 99 will be short life corn, cotton, copper prices follow oil prices up 20 % ,  
US recession and 911 in 2001 drag demand and price for oil to 16.5 .and rebound to 29 in 2002 April due to strong US consumer demand for gasoline from 52 to 82

Global Crude oil future prices = (US consumer demand, currency exchange rate, US gasoline price, US fuel price )

This relationship explain recent dollar weakness( Yen up to 112, Rupiah to 7000) and weak consumer gasoline and heating oil demand  in Sept  and fuel inventory buildup drag gasoline and heating oil prices from 100 to  65- 75 resulted crude oil plunge to  25-
However,  Crude oil prices will rebound in late Nov as cold winter push heating oil prices up to 75- 85  and crude oil prices back to 26- 31
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both  dip below  50 from 100 as oil price down to 17
The financial    derivatives, options  prices, and Risk Hedging simulation
Daily Currency and Interest futures   simulation

China and CBOT Metals future prices simulation

Gold  future prices = F(  production costs, end uses demand (China/US inflation),  US dollar exchange rate)

Gold  futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA

Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold consuming country facing housing market overheated bubble, due to excessive money supply growth to 20 %, economy getting out of deflation (of -3.6 in 1999, gold prices made 256 low )  and US dollar plunged  from 129 to 105 Yen, 0.83 to 1.29 Euro pushed gold price from 256 to current 426
 
US/China inflation outlook:  US inflation at 1.5 % China at 3.5 %, both facing strong consumer demand and overheating housing bubbles and manufacturing near deflation
US dollar outlook:  US dollar slide  105 Yen, and 1.29 EURO  due to soaring trade deficit at 43  billion. However weak dollar will boost export, stability trade deficit below  40
 
As China overheated economy and US recover, will push inflation, oil prices higher, push gold , metal, commodity price higher, however will be drag by dollar  rebound due to US falling trade deficit, due to China 10 billion purchasing US  airplanes, auto, chips, cotton, soybean and future interest rate hikes continue into summer 2006   

Precious Metal Future
Silver is used for decoration and mostly for photography, Major user US, China soaring consumer spending, summer travel , excessive  money supply, consumer demand supported silver prices above  1450
Platinum is used for decoration and mostly for automobile catalytic converter, benefited by strong  global and US consumer auto demand, recent rebound to  110- 1250
Copper future prices simulation:
Copper bas been used mostly for electronic, IC, computers, appliances. It s future prices depend very on major downstream export demand, currency exchange rates)

Copper prices benefited by weak dollar and strong IC , China construction demand, rebound to  350- 400

This relation tracing accurately copper price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as result of Asian crisis late  Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble, triggered currency depreciation
It rebound  as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and weakness in US dollar.

Gold, metals mining sectors, demand, future prices, corporate earning, stock prices, and mutual fund performances
Higher gold prices improve gold mining profit margin, but dragged by higher mining energy  costs ( account 30 %), fortunately heating oil stay flat.
Gold mining company and gold future fund enjoyed 50- 100 % return this years due to soaring gold prices (from256 to  600 )
visit www.kitco.com for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices
visit www.eagle-gold.com  for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices, mining companies gold fund  performance
visit  http://tw.money.yahoo.com/fund/d/2813.html for top gold fund performance

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