|                    2010 Global Multi-asset ( Housing, commodity, equities, bond)  Asset Pricing and Fund Allocation Strategy 2010
Monetary, Economic policy impact on Global  Financial , Euro Debt Crisis Causes, Early Warning Recession, Recovery , Exit Strategy Asset Allocation  Risk Management  
 Proactive Structural analysis of US, Asian, Euro Economic, Stimulus , Bail out Exit Strategy,  Excessive Liquidity, Debt, Asset Prices impact on 2010 monetary , economic policy   housing, stock markets price bubble, industrial , consumer, business demand, industrial sectors performance , Asset Allocation strategic risk management workshops:
        by appointment  for Government, banking, finance and manufacturing senior executives develop , implemented by top down and bottom up strategic- execution OSA team directed by Proactive Structural Global Financial Crisis  OSA   
              

Global  Financial Crisis Causes, Early Warning Recession, Recovery, Exit  Strategic Macro ,Value Investing, Risk Management Workshops---- Proactive Structural analysis
:Select your countries and industry among  ( US    China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India,    Russia  ECB, ASEAN countries, Japan, Korea)
    
  by  OSA asset pricing , bubble burst, financial, credit crisis mechanism   risks management   pioneer Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   San Francisco  USA    email  wh3928@yahoo.com
Through Quantitative top down country, industry, company specific macro-financial , liquidity, debt, credit crisis bubbles decisions modeling integrated into liquidity, credit, market risks for  top strategic OSA team and  bottom up financial market execution OSA teams   through Proactive Structural Dynamic macro, financial and commodities future ,housing, equities asset prices bubbles mechanism, supporting strategic macro and  value investing and  Risks Hedging Valuation Operations Simulation Analysis  (OSA)

Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
 Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivative  s Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with US facing -3.5 % , Japan -7.5 %, Euro -4 %. UK, -4 %,China 7 %, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, -4 %, Taiwan, Singapore - 7 %drag housing price slump, credit, financial crisis, default despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,   L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
Phase III  post recession recovery :
China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices.
 recession recovery. despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,  
Asian economic rebound lead by China due to excessive liquidity resulted housing, stock market bubbles, forced China into Macro- housing market price control, credit tightening and Asian central banks rate hikes. EURO debt crisis cut government spend, drag GDP below 1 %, lead to Japan  drag by excessive personal, business, government debt,  and strong Yen facing double recession While US record housing prices  bubble  burst , housing prices plunged over 30 %   unemployment soared to 9.5- 10 % ,mounting personal, business, government debt and plunging confidence continue into 2012, facing trilemma of inflation/deflation with CPI  at 1- 3 % and double dip in housing slump and recession ( GDP below 1 % . L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug .2007, Mar 2008, China Fund World ,Summit, Pudong, Shanghai, China that US regional and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 3o-50 % into 2009 rate cuts, bail out, provide banks, finance excess liquidity will not, can nto stop housing price slump and recession ( with Oct . 2009 20 city Schiller  price index down 30 % http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation ), drag US and  global economy into 1980 style deep double dip recession  stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 -70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 6000- 7000, NASDAQ test 1100- 1250, S&P test 600-  700 low, oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to 30，Gas oil from 1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as Fed agree that global economy  enter deep recession through 2009, despite rate cuts to zero, US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out fail to  to stabilize credit crisis , there is no economic recovery till late 2009,   with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out  and infrastructure job creation program. US spend 8 trillion bailout  fighting crisis , recession  pointed out by Nobel prize winner Krugman  http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2 , hopefully OBAMA/s 775 billion dollar economic stimulus plan to create 4 million jobs in the next two years  will pull economy out of recession and cutting mounting job loss  http://change.gov/agenda/economy_agenda/
Dr. Huang predicted to Asian Deleveraged Finance, Acquisition Conference, Hong Kong, Feb 2009 and  China Derivatives Market Summit March 2009, Pudong taht China /US stimulus package, bail out will lead stock market rebound from March 2009 and economic recession ecovery in the second half 2009
US Fed injected trillion dollars into banking, finance and housing market stimulus created excess liquidity and debt bubble  leading to stock market 60 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, and  global stock price bubble appears again ( with China, Russia, Taiwan, China , Hong Kong over 100 % gain, most serious)  China raise bank deposit rate twice  in Feb to 16.5 %, India, Korea Australia, UK already tightening credit, to deflate housing price bubble ( 30- 100 % gain)  speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package.
US  trillion dollars bail out and housing, auto stimulus lead to excessive liquidity bubble, in stock markets  speculation and huge banking, financial sectors profits, bonus( soared 65 %)lead budget 14 trillion deficit  debt bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at 56 are inflationary inflation rate already soared to 3 %. Jan PPI up 1.4 % with energy prices up 14 % and prepare for crisis exit strategy, tightening liquidity( remove trillion dollar excessive liquidity) this summer, as Fed already raise Fed discount rate 0.25 %Feb 18, and will sell trillion dollar asset injected into the banking, finance system to deflate the liquidity bubble before it burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK already facing bubble, lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to 1.36Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 5, 12.37 PM,2009,soared 65 %)
lead budget 14 trillion deficit  debt bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at 56 are inflationary inflation rate already soared to 3 %. and prepare for crisis exit strategy, tightening liquidity( remove trillion dollar excessive liquidity from capital markets in the second quarter 2010) to deflate the liquidity, Debt, Asset  bubble before it burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK , Italy already facing bubble, lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to 1.36
China 568 billon stimulus package 14 trillion bank loan  resulted excessive liquidity hot money speculation in stock price ( double, and housing prices breaking 2007 peak ( almost double) and 4 Q GDP 10.7 % resulted economy overheating in housing, auto  sectors, Feb money supply M1, soared to 39 %, M2 to 25 % forced  Peoples Bank raised bank deposit ratio twice in Feb 2010 to 16.5 % to cool off the housing and stock markets, tightening 2010 loan to 8 trillion, to curb inflation below 3 % ( already 2 % )

by OSA proactive structural asset pricing pioneer Dr/Prof.  Warren Huang Global Finance, Capital Markets, Macroeconomic  Integration Proactive Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping with policy tri-lemma problem in global capital markets  growth without asset  prices bubbles Proactive Recession fighting Strategy  
Government monetary, banking, insurance, security regulation officer, Institutional Investors  Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance  CPA/CFA/CFO proactive structural strategic  decision analysis training workshops series
Global Strategic Management   Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master hands controlling global macro  economy , finance, capital market prices for QFII/QDII managers, private, institutional investors  investment  workshops achieve sustainable profit growth Bring your past, current operations, investment, financial  risks management and future problem to these 2 day  4 units conference workshops, You will take home from Dr Warren Huang  the what, why, how and timing of  causes, onset, recovery, early warning of current financial crisis and trillion dollar strategic financial investment and Manufacturing enterprises  risks management  and billion dollar supply chain cost reduction solution to maximize sustainable risk adjusted return
　

    Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of  Global Housing, Commodities, Equities Asset Demand, Prices Mechanism tracking forecast   Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession, causes, onset, recovery, risks early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, oil, energy, metals, commodity,, IT manufacturing assets and derivative prices and  financial and enterprises risk  valuation mechanism early warning , predicted year, month ahead of  last 30 years crisis and recession ,capitalized on hedging trillion dollar recession ,value chain  , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS , equities  market price bubble burst investment and hedging loss due to current statistical , probability based  macro, financial decision modeling asset pricing, credit rating and VaR  risks valuation betting on the wrong side of investment.
Has developed, implemented proactive structural decision analysis trackng last 30 years recession, crisis, supporting  goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, ( top, senior management), and executive (managerial ) market, credit, operational risk management business unit, integrating into core business units ( finance, supply demand, market sales chain) reporting to CEO on weekly and daily basis maximize risk adjusted return . He has over 30 years development, implementation of oil, petrochemical , IT and downstream supply- value chain profit optimization and risk management experiences for US,China, Taiwan multinational and 80 countries senior executives training
He lectured China, US, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 million  fund managers, investors , Taiwan  300,000 impor/export members 20 industrial sectors trade stradgy,24 global central banks governors , risk management conferences , thousands  workshops for  global investment, banking, mortgage, manufacturing CEO, senior executives tracking forecast last 20 year global financial, energy crisis, recessions, risks early warning
He predicted ,warned  global MBS, CDO managing directors on current  China, US, equities, housing bubble burst financial crisis  last through 2009 drag stocks , oil, commodities prices into 70 %  , housing 30-50 % correction on Peking University Int'l financial risks management conference and Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Sept 2007 and Pudong Shanghai March, 2008 to global investment banks senior executives and master class workshop ,  keynote speakers on 2009 China derivatives market summit forum Pudong, Mar 8,  and Deleveraged finance and merger-acquisition private fund summit in Hong Kong, Feb 25, 2009 predicted  US  housing bubble burst , recession, credit, financial crisis, capital markets ,  bottom out in recession recovery n March  and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China  derivatives  and merger acquisition , financing markets
　

Indian economy is very much similar to China economy.  With overheated housing and equities price bubbles escaped this financial crisis  and recession due to stable information industry and domestic consumer oriented economy supporting housing prices during this period maintain  sound banking financial industry, which are less sophisticated than US operation ,with less leveraged in structural finance activity which caused trillion dollar turmoil.

But India's high inflation at 8.7 %, and lower interest rate at 3.3 % maintaining GDP at 6 % during global recession, depreciated Rupee at 47, facing rate hikes, credit tightening in global recession recovery next year, further  inflate housing price bubble with Mumbai housing price doubled that of Shanghai. India banking, finance, and IT manufacturing industries may escaped current financial crisis but still facing inflationary pressure and housing bubble burst and associated financial and enterprises risks.

 

             Strategic PGFCR  :   Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current global housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms  tracking forecast month, years ahead last 30 years causes, onset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, recession through
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial, Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo  US best ,worst cities for recession recovery
Final Phase Economic Stimulus Exit Strategy: the what , why, how and timing of removing excess liquidity, debt bubble prevent bubble burst, and credit tightening and rate hikes against double dip  inflationary recession

Maximize Risks Adjusted Return for Indian banking, finance, manufacturing senior executives by Proactive, Structural Strategic Indian/China/US Housing, equities, commodities, IT manufacturing  Assets and Derivatives Pricing Bubbles  and Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Recovery Strategic Investment, Risk Management    

 

Conducted by  Masterclass workshop lecturer:   :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士), Pioneer of Proactive Structural Global Financial Crisis Impact on Multi-class Asset, Derivatives  and risks valuation  Mechanism Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)    

Goal:        Provide  banking, finance, investment fund managers and , energy, IT manufacturing executives  the what, why, how and timing of China/India/Global fund, derivatives market fundamental assets price mechanism, allocation , risk early warning and strategic risk management, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging economic recession, credit, financial market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment
Mission:   : Setup and training   Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic   China/India Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism manufacturing value chain valuation for Indian Economy, capital market, value chain profit optimization and risk control challenges, opportunities  

Day One: Housing, Banking Financial, Debt, Liquidity, Asset Prices Bubble Burst Crisis, Recession  recovery and exit strategy 2007- 10, causes, impact,  early warning ,Asia/US/China  rate cuts, economic stimulus, bail out impact on banking finance performance, recession recovery , liquidity, debt bubble and exit strategy, credit tightening
Morning: Unit one: Proactive structural macro-financial decision models predict Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession  2007-10, causes, impact,  early warning

 * Causes  and Early Warning  of Housing and stock prices, recession recovery , liquidity, debt bubble and exit strategy, credit tightening  bubble burst: Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and   co-integrations of  Asia /US, China central bank monetary , economic, fiscal policy ,series of bank deposit rate , rate hikes  removing excessive liquidity due to stocks, housing  bubble wealth  gain and  currency and housing industry price bubble overheating control  impact on housing, stock   prices bubbles burst,, fixed investment, inflation rate, un-employment rate. resulted US housing price slump, subprime mortgage crisis, 2007, housing , stock prices bubble burst, spread to US and global global financial crisis warned, predicted by Dr. Warren Huang June International Financial risk management conference, Beijing, and Sept. Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. 2007

 * Impact Analysis Continued housing, commercial mortgage market slump, high unemployment due to housing bubble burst will spread into broad mortgage and financial crisis and all other  manufacturing ( downstream of housing industries ) led to soaring unemployment, plunging  consumer, business demand and economic recession through 2009 , predicted by Dr. Huang on Wall Street Journal blog and Peking Univ. 2007 

Afternoon: Unit Two Exit strategy,  Interest Rates, Money Supply, Liquidity, Euro Debt, Asset Prices Bubble crisis, Bail out, Economic Stimulus Impact on Housing, Banking, Capital market assets  and derivatives pricing  and risks valuation mechanism, profits and stocks prices performance, and recession recovery
 * Interest rate, credit tightening, ratehikes bail out  economic stimulus , economic recession , remove liquidity, impact on housing, equities asset prices  and derivatives (MBS, CMBS, ABS, CDO, CDS) prices bubble,  and mortgage default/foreclosure  impact on recession

*Proactive structural Banking, Finance ,Liquidity Debt Crisis, Risks valuation mechanism:
Financial  Systemic , Banking stress Risks Simulation :Top down asset price, liquidity, debt bubble mechanism and risk valuation integrating macro, financial economic into industrial asst pricing , proactive structural interest rate, currency, commodities, asset pricing and systemic  risk valuation and Basel II Risks decision analysis

A. Credit risks valuation : Proactive structural credit default rating simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach for credit risk early warning management

B. Market risk valuation: Proactive structural market price valuation for VaR market maximum trading loss valuation risks simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach avoided underestimate the trillion dollar market loss due to betting on the wrong side of investment

C. Operational Risks : Proactive structural  operational risks  decision analysis simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach for credit and market  risk , provide reliable economic risk capital calculation. provide reliable tracking of all financial statement asset price and profit loss, maximize transparency for corporate governance

Day Two   Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession  2007- 09 and Economic Stimulus Impact on  US/China   energy, IT manufacturing  value chain optimization, risk control, recession recovery

 Morning: Unit Three  Proactive structural top down integrating macro, financial economic , exit strategy impact on    2007- 10, and IT, energy manufacturing supply value chain profits and risks control

 * Supply -Value chain asset prices valuation mechanism    Proactive Structural dynamic OSA tracking, simulation global central banks monetary, economic stimulus , fiscal policy impact on consumer, business spending impact on India /US, China  daily oil, energy, and IT up stream/downstream supply chain prices mechanism for raw material cost and product pricing  hedging  avoided billion dollar hedging raw materials and products loss . Predicted 2000 IT asset bubble burst  on China Peoples Bank governor central bank policy conference, 1999  and  current Housing price bubble, 2003 on Asian/China, Finance, Capital Market Conference Singapore, Shanghai  and on China Oil Marker Conference that oil price soared from 50 to 80 in 2006,2007 and predicted again on March , Pudong, China Fund World 2008 that US rate cutes drag dollar to new low and oil price from 75 to 147 in July and to China derivatives market conference.., Pudong, Chiina, Mar. 2009 US /China stimulus led to stock market and recession rebound from Mar. low, oil price rebound from 30 to 72.
Dr. Huang's over 30 years development, implementation of proactive structural simulation of   energy value, supply chain profit optimization and risk  control systems published on US Hydrocarbon Processing Information Management Systems  Advanced Control system Handbook 1991- 2005 applied for US, Taiwan, China, Asian, European 80 countries 2000 multinational energy and IT companies senior executives

 Enterprises Risks Management:
Proactive structural decision simulators tracking all phases of  supply -value chain risks identification, monitoring, mitigation in project planning, construction, operations and equipment  preventive maintainance,
to maximize risk adjusted return without interruption

Afternoon: Unit four Risks Operation Simulation Analysis teams development, implementing proactive structural country, industry, company specific  models and solution through  integrating risks into core business unit in daily operation and reporting. for banking, finance financial risks management and manufacturing supply-value chain profit optimization
Multidisciplinary maximize risk adjusted return as goal, strategic ( CEO, VP ) and execution ( managerial level) risks operations simulation analysis teams ,  integrating into core finance, marketing, supply chain core business units meeting daily, weekly, months identify, early warning, monitoring, and risk management, mitigation reporting to VP, CEO .

 Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research,  commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, mutual fund, hedge fund , wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, CDS securitization managers, insurance managers, oil, petrochemicals, IT downstream,  housing construction, commodities, metal, CEO, supply chain, investment managers, SWF fund managers, government regulation strategic (top management) , execution  teams 

Workshop Costs/ Benefits : Lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco, hotel,  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save trillions dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst  
Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com  indicating your  favorite  time, your office address, and lists of executives names, title

  

A.