China Energy, Commodities, Metal , oil, energy, Forex  Derivatives, Summit , Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
                       Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   

  China/US 2010 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis,  Recession, Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets Asset and oil, metal, forex, commodities, equities  Derivatives  Demand and Prices Mechanism  Outlook,  Forecast  
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset  Pricing Mechanism and Allocation Strategy    
         byDr. Warren Huang    website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong,  Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
                                           email  wh3928@yahoo.com
　

    Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, oil, energy, metals, commodity, asset and derivative prices and risk  valuation mechanism, predicted year, month ahead of  last 30 years crisis and recession ,capitalized on hedging trillion dollar recession , supply , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He was the keynote speaker on 2009 China derivatives market summit forum Pudong, Mar 8,  and Deleveraged finance and merger-acquisition provate fund summit in Hong Kong, Feb 25-26, on US recession, credit, financial crisis, capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives  and merger acquisiition  , financing markets

Dr. Warren Huang  (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted 10  trillions housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making  new low 85- 90 Yen, 1.45 EURO  commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure Program maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2700 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding

China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices, only down 1.5 % , FIXED investment  up 30 %, consumer spending still up 22 %, 2009 1 Q 6.2 %Apr.  CPI drop to 1.2% , PPI down 6.6 % in Dec.2009 %China  Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, drag China GDP plunged to 6.8 % 4Q 2008,will test 6 % first half 2009  and stay above 8 % second half 2009 due to and
China 568 billion infrastructure and 10 industrial sector stimulus  program already raise fixed investment 30 %, consumer spending 13 %, maintain 2009 GDP at  7.5 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2700 through  09   until economy softlanding
 China  raise  its M2 money supply growth   from  12 %to 24 %  Apr. 2009, fixed investment growth to 30 %, retails sales spending to 15 %,in April, 2009

　

             Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2009 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession , oil go to 100, despite Fed  rate cuts

He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated

housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,

housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1600-2000 till summer 2009

　

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400. Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge

 to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year, Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time

 high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 850  soybean heading for 1100  wheat to 870., eventually will

 spread into core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing,

 stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to

 plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into

 recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go

 ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead

detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html Comment by Warren Huang - September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm

Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2009 China/US housing prices bubbles burst, credit, financial crisis, recession and  Infrastructure Stimulus impact on
recession , stocks, fund, commodities , derivatives markets outlook

Dr. Warren Huang was risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global  asset pricing, 2008-09 credit tightening, recession impact on global asset ,derivatives   long-short hedging, asset

 allocation strategy 

 

Conducted by     :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士), Pioneer of Proactive Structural Multi-class Asset, Derivatives Pricing Mechanism Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII fund managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund, derivatives market fundamental assets price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging economic recession, credit, financial market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment.

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and Optimal alphaplus, beta separation Long-Short Strategy for China fund 2009  and China Derivatives Summit 2009 challenges, opportunities 

 

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2009 China/US  Economic Recession, Housing,  Credit, Financial Crisis outlook,   Finance, Capital Market Challenges, Opportunities
  

A.       Challenges and Risks:  Greater China, Asian,US    Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , resulted trillion dollar banking, finance, subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global deep recession   impact on housing price slump and trillion dollars banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for recessions, housing, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals ,China infrastructural program for sustaining GDP growth and financial , housing market price stability

B.       Opportunities: China /US banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, and China  568 billion dollar infrastructure stimulus plan and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan impact on China 2009 economic recovery, oil, energy, metals, futures, derivatives,  housing, stock market rebound .and corrections, 2009

US  8 trillion dollar  bail out for housing, banking, finance and trillion economic stimulus,  renewal energy, healthcare, high way,  school construction, tax rebate, job creation impact on economic recovery and listed companies earning, stock prices markets for  Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, long/short allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth  and risks management

Session 2 Proactive (OSA) integrate 2009 housing market slump,  recession, financial crisis impact on  sectors, business news, technical, fundamentals into quantitative  causes consequences forecast  models

A.    Monetary rate cuts, economic stimulus,, fiscal  tax, bail out policy impact on 2009 China/US inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global currencies, oil , metals housing market prices, derivatives prices  mechanism  2008 forecast
B.  Monetary , economic, recession, fiscal policy, housing prices control, currencies speculation impact on Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,  Hong Kong H, red blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian  stock indices and Index, ETF fund , US credit crisis impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008 forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII  long/short strategy  
                      
Session 3  Proactive Structural recession, crisis impact China/US Economic Stimulus, Infrastructure plan impact on industrial demand, price mechanism and corporate performance 2009 OSA  

A.      Macroeconomic infrastructure  stimulus, and  housing prices  , bail out plan,  liquidity control policy,  impact on 2009 China/US/global national, regional housing demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction materials sector stock price performances,.
B.  Greater China housing overheating ,credit tightening, rate cuts, stimulus package and US Housing slump,  impact on2009  US economic recession, and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances.

Session 4  2009 Strategic government, Greater China /US QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation, risks early warning case studies

A.     Proactive structural strategy in China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in Morgan Stanley.
B.  Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 , DOw Jones, SP500, Nasdaq future index prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, risks hedging.
C.   BEE,  SSgA BRIC (China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding, index pricing
D.   Proactive, optimal long-short 1xx/xx , ultra real estate, financial , commodities, optimal long short strategy workshop
E Optimal proactive structural  alpha beta separation, portable alpha assets allocation and  risk diversification  strategy