b
Post-
Conference Master Class Workshop, Terrapinn
Fund World, China, 2008,
Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 6, 2008
Reservation
for your in
house workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
DO not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy by
Dr. Warren Huang who will be risk management panelist and original planned full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal 1x0/x0 long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession ,widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil go to 100, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking, financial and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008
US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors performance,
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pmFed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to
do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing
prices ( July housing price already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut
mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,
Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950 soybean heading for 1200
wheat to 990., eventually will spread into core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing
bubble, drag economic into recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full
steam rate cut,
but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead
detail
can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang -
Wall Street Journal Market Beat September
18, 2007 at 5:55
pm
Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities,
risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary
recession , stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Maximize Risks Adjusted
Return by Proactive, Structural Strategic
Conducted by
:Dr. Warren
Huang (黃華南博士), Pioneer of Proactive Structural
Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA
Masterclass goal Provide QFII / QDII fund managers the what,
why, how and timing of China/Global fund
market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years,
months ahead of the emerging,market trends
Mission: Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commo- dities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and Optimal Long-Short Strategy for China fund challenges, opportunities in 2008.
Session
1
Proactive Structural
OSA of
A.
Challenges
and Risks:
Greater China, Asian macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US
credit crisis,
housing
price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking,
finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default,
equities,
currency market risks
B. Opportunities: China banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, markets for Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund strategic wealth management
Session 2 Proactive
Structural (OSA)
hedging
strategy integrate
economic, sectors, business news, fundamentals into quantitative
models
A. Monetary, economic
policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global
currencies, oil , metals
housing market prices mechanism
2008
forecast
B. Monetary policy,
housing prices, currencies speculation impact on
Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,
Hong Kong H, red
blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian stock indices and Index, ETF fund
, US credit
crisis impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008 forecasts
for
optimal QFII/QDII long/short
hedging strategy
Session 3 Proactive
Structural China/Global
industrial demand, price
mechanism and corporate performance 2008 OSA
optimal long-short
hedging strategy
A. Macroeconomic
and housing prices excessive
liquidity control policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global
national, regional housing
demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction materials
sector stock price performances,.
B.
Greater China housing overheating
,credit tightening and US Housing slump impact on US economic recession, and
China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices
performances and optimal
long-short strategy
Session 4
Strategic
government,
Greater China
QFII/QDII funds
asset pricing,
allocation,optimal long-short
strategy
risks early
warning case studies
A.
Proactive structural strategy
in China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in
Morgan Stanley.
B. Shanghai-Shenzhen
300 future index prices and component
industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, risks hedging.
C.
SSgA BRIC
(China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding,
index pricing
performance
D.
Proactive,structural
trillion dollar recession hedge
optimal long-short strategy for130/30,
1xx/xx equities
Commodities,
Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism Simulation allocation, fund return ,
pricing,
portfolio selection
hedging,
scandals, market risks
We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility, consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting. However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1