b
Post-
Conference Master Class
Strategic
Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global Fund World,
Asset
Allocation 2008,- 2009
Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar
4- 6, 2008
Reservation
for your in
house workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
Do not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation by World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
risk management panelist and planned full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural China/global
asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager,
investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives
Proactive Structural PGFCR:
Proactive
Global
Housing, Credit,
Financial
Crisis,
Recession
Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead
of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset
prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives
hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of
investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through
global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on
daily capital market asset price mechanisms
Do not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra
short strategy for global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity,
Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive Structural
Asset Pricing pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang
risk management panelist and
planned
full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on
Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to
150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII
executives
and
China Derivatives, Summit , Trillion Dollar Recession Risks
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
China
China/US 2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis,
Economic Recession, Capital Markets Outlook, Forecast by
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing,
Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and
impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative
prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on
trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion
dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis
, capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding
to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting
the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore,
offshore derivatives markets
Dr./Prof. Warren Huang 黃華南 博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy
will be
offering
China Derivatives, Summit , Recession Risks Hedging
2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
by EUROMONEY
China/US
2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Economic Recession, Capital Markets
Outlook, Forecast by
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Housing, Credit,
Financial Crisis, Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
email
wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing,
Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and
impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative
prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on
trillion dollar recession supply , investment profit while avoided trillion
dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis,
capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting
the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore,
offshore derivatives markets
Marcus Evans International Commodity Trade Finance Masterclass workshop, 23-24, Octobot, 2008, Resaissancec, Shanghai, Pudong, China
Worshop Goal: structured to provide the latest proactive strategic decision tool for global import/export commodity, raw materials trade, capital on the emerging energy, metal, feed grain commodity
pricing and risks management maximize value chain profit at minimum risks
Workshop Mission: •Provide proactive structural China/global trade and commodity, finance price mechanism, analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy, metals, feed
grain price, risks trend achieve sustainable profit , while minimize risks• Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity trade financing to minimize supply chain
costs, maximize value chain profits website
www.osawh.com email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Comment to Wall Street
Journal Economic, Market Beat, Energy, Deal, Housing
Development Blogs:
OSA global strategic management economic, market today blogs www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 repeating 1980 double dip
inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices and oil, commodities ,
metals price bubble burst bear market 50-70 % , Dow Jones
test 6000- 7000 NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1100-1250- and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 50-- 70 % correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 85- 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50-70 % % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue, Lehaman bankruptcy, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
AIG,bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
. , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115,
corn from 600 to 350, He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion
infrastructure rogam maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stbilize stock markets,
Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09 early 2009 until
economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing
prices still up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer
spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 2.4% in
Oct.2008 % after
China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China
need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 %start rate
cuts to support 2009 growth while next year
to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 3 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft
landing and start of bull market stock rally
Comment to Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008 2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market
correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary
recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump
resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking share performance
details on
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm
No one can manipulate any global commodity price, they are determined by
market supply , demand price mechanism.
I pioneered this price mechanism on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, predicted
last 30 years daily oil, energy, commodities price and during energy crisis.
I predicted to hundreds top global multinational oil CEO, VP on China Oil,
Gas market conference, Beijing, Feb, Nov. 2005 that oil price soared from 50
to 80, when every one predicted oil price slump.
and again last Sept on the blog that Fed rate cuts will drag dollar lower,
push oil price to 110 while Benanke and economist predicted oil price
slump in recession. I predicted to 150 inveesment bank CEO, fund managers on
China fund world conference March 5, 2008, Pudong, Shanghai and on this blog
early this year that economic stimulus will push oil price to 135 , gold
price to 1000 in this summer peak demand, and warn bear market trap on
market analyst to rally stock price. It is obvious, market traders,
investment banker, are not manipulate the oil, they use central banks rate
cuts, and tax rebates, dollar weakness to speculate the oil price bubble
on
oil price slump
Dow Jones soared 220 point yesterday on oil price slump and jobless claim
and plunged 230 point on oil price spike and unemployment data ignoring my
warning on this blog that FEd rate cuts, stimulus package will not stop
housing price slump, mortgage, credit crisis, , mounting job cuts drag
economic into recession, US and global stock market bear market correction,
Dow must test 11000- 12000, banking, finance, retail, stocks plunge 50- 70
%, it will give up all its recent gain in bottom fishing rebound .
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
www.osawh.com/goldf.html
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May17, 2008
1.52pm and osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1
Why oil price and oil stock lag
From my 30 years tracking demand side oil prices and oil stock price, the reason why oil stock price lag behind oil price are due to oil commodities traders trading, speculating on daily oil supply, demand, dollar news, while oil stock price have to wait till 3 month later how oil prices influence on each company profitr margin with different oil dependence ,product mix, it is easy for 100 % crude oil production company like Russia YUKOs,, soaring oil price lead to higher margin, so is Chinas CEO, (Offshore OIL ) and PetroChina with heavy crude oil mix, stock price soared over 200, while integrated oil like Mobil has both upstream and downstream, downstream are suffered by soaring oil, feedstock cost facing loss, refining company facing profit squeeze. All the operating result are 3 month behind due to earning report But only proactive structural simulation of oil price and it impact on oil company earning, stock price, can predict ahead, and cut the time lag. details on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm on oil price bubble impact on stock prices
No one can manipulate any global commodity price, they are determined by
market supply , demand price mechanism.
I pioneered this price mechanism on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, predicted
last 30 years daily oil, energu, commodities price and during energy crisis.
I predicted to hundreds top global multinational oil CEO, VP on China Oil,
Gas market conference, Beijing, Feb, Nov. 2005 that oil price soared from 50
to 80, when every one predicted oil price slump.
and again last Sept on the blog that Fed rate cuts will drag dollar lower,
push oil price to 110 while Benanke and economist predicted oil price
slump in recession. I predicted to 150 inveesment bank CEO, fund managers on
China fund world conference March 5, 2008, Pudong, Shanghai and on this blog
early this year that economic stimulus will push oil price to 135 , gold
price to 1000 in this summer peak demand, and warn bear market trap on
market analyst to rally stock price. It is obvious, market traders,
investment banker, are not manipulate the oil, they use central banks rate
cuts, and tax rebates, dollar weakness to speculate the oil price bubble on
oil price slump
Dow Jones soared 220 point yesterday on oil price slump and jobless claim
and plunged 230 point on oil price spike and unemployment data ignoring my
warning on this blog that FEd rate cuts, stimulus packagae will not stop
housing price slump, mortgage, credit crisis, , mounting job cuts drag
economic into recession, US and global stock market bear market correction,
Dow must test 11000- 12000, banking, finance, retail, stocks plunge 50- 70
%, it will give up all its recent gain in bottom fishing rebound .
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
www.osawh.com/goldf.html
US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors performance,
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pmWe have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its
impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while
dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts
expectation.
Utility, consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer
spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up
with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic
stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics
into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM
service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after
second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and
soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle
earlier, facing inflation fighting. However housing slump
continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation,
dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/currency.html
www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Comment by Warren Huang -
Wall Street Journal Market Beat September
18, 2007 at 5:55
pm
Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold
price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.
bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.50, it will hit 1.60 sometime next
year. Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950 soybean heading for 1200 wheat to 990., eventually will spread i
core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks price
will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble, drag economic into recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts
Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead
detail
can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on mortgae, credit, financial crisis, 1980 style double dip recession , stocks, fund, commodities , derivatives markets outlook
Maximize Risks Adjusted
Return by Proactive, Structural Strategic
Conducted by
:Dr. Warren
Huang (黃華南博士), Pioneer of Proactive Structural Real Time Economics, Capital Markets
Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA
Masterclass goal Provide QFII / QDII fund , derivatives managers the what,
why, how and timing of China/Global fund
, derivatives market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years,
months ahead of the emerging, market trends
Mission: Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/US Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and Optimal Long-Short Strategy for China fund challenges, opportunities in 2008- 2009.
Session
1
Proactive Structural
OSA of
A.
Challenges
and Risks:
Greater China, Asian , US macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US
credit , financial crisis,
housing
price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking,
finance, energy material sectors asset prices bubble burst, plunged 70 %,
economic recession, credit default,
equities,
currency market risks
B. Opportunities: China , US banking, finance, capital markets reform , restructuring , M/A for China/global innovative financial products, markets for Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal long/short strategy for Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time oil, commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, trillion dollar recession hedge , pension fund strategic wealth management
Session 2 Proactive
Structural (OSA)
hedging
strategy integrate
economic recession, financial crisis
impact on , sectors, business news,, fundamentals into quantitative
causes and consequences
models
A. Monetary, economic
stimulus, bail out policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global
currencies, oil , metals
housing market prices mechanism
2008-2009
forecast
B. Monetary
stimulus, policy,
housing prices, currencies speculation impact on
Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,
Hong Kong H, red
blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian stock indices and Index, ETF fund
, US credit
, financial crisis, recessison impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008-09 forecasts
for
optimal QFII/QDII long/short
hedging strategy
Session 3 Proactive
Structural credit, financial crisis, recession impact on China/Global
industrial demand, price
mechanism and corporate performance 2008-09 OSA
optimal long-short
hedging strategy
A. Macroeconomic
rate cuts, housing prices ,
liquidity control , stimulus policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global
national, regional housing
demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction materials
sector stock price performances,.
B.
Greater China housing overheating
,credit tightening/ rate cuts and US Housing slump impact on US economic recession, and
China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices
performances and optimal
long-short strategy
Session 4 2009
Strategic
government,
Greater China
QFII/QDII funds
asset pricing,
allocation,optimal long-short
strategy
risks early
warning case studies
A. 2008- 09
Proactive structural strategy
in China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in
Morgan Stanley.
B. Shanghai-Shenzhen
300 future index prices and component
industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, risks hedging.
C. Optimum Ultra -long short alphaplus
multiclass strategy SP financial , NASDAQ -100,
crude oil and natural resources fund
C.
SSgA BRIC
(China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding,
index pricing
performance
D.
Proactive,structural
trillion dollar recession hedge
optimal long-short strategy for130/30,
1xx/xx equities
Commodities,
Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism Simulation allocation, fund return ,
pricing,
portfolio selection
hedging,
scandals, market risks
Proactive Structural global housing price bubble burst Operation Simulation Analysis Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of
equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage credit, default , financial crisis, tracking financial systems stability regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset
credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations,
with 2008 forecast.
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control
and Default
Crisis , recession Early Warning Workshop
5 Day Asian Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control
and Default
Crisis recession Early Warning Workshop
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control
and Default
Crisis, recession Early Warning Workshop
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation,
control, defaults early warning Workshop
5 Day EU Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation,
control, defaults early warning
Workshop
The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, Structural finance MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Structural Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession will continue into 2009, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70,Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn from 800 to 350, gold price from 1000 to 550, cotton from 80 to 44 )as global economy enter deep recession by year end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html