b                                                           Post- Conference Master Class Workshop, Terrapinn
                                    Fund World, China, 2008,
Proactive Recession Strategy
                                   Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 6, 2008

                                  
Reservation  
for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 
  

                             DO not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy  by

Dr. Warren Huang who will be risk management panelist and  original planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global  asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy 

 

Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession ,widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil go to 100, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking,  financial and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed  rate cuts

He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated

housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors  performance,  

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm

We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility,  consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting.   However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm    www.osawh.com/currency.html    www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to

do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing

prices ( July housing price  already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut

 mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge  to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,

 Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time  high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950  soybean heading for 1200

 wheat to 990., eventually will  spread into core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.

But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to  plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing

bubble,  drag economic into  recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full

 steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead      detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - Wall Street Journal Market Beat September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm

Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary recession , stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook

   

Maximize Risks Adjusted Return by Proactive, Structural Strategic China Fund Management

 

Conducted by          :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士),  Pioneer of Proactive Structural Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII fund managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging,market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment.

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commo- dities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and   Optimal  Long-Short Strategy for China fund challenges, opportunities in 2008.

 

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2008 China/Global  Economy, Finance, Capital Market Challenges, Opportunities
 

A.       Challenges and Risks:  Greater China, Asian macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US credit crisis,  housing price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals

B.       Opportunities: China banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, markets for  Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth management


Session 2
Proactive Structural  (OSA)  hedging strategy integrate economic, sectors, business news, fundamentals into quantitative models

A.    Monetary, economic policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global currencies, oil , metals
housing market prices mechanism  2008 forecast
B.  Monetary policy, housing prices, currencies speculation impact on
Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,  Hong Kong H, red blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian  stock indices and Index, ETF fund , US credit crisis impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008 forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII  long/short  hedging strategy  
                      
Session 3
 Proactive Structural China/Global industrial demand, price mechanism and corporate performance 2008 OSA  optimal long-short hedging strategy

A.      Macroeconomic and  housing prices excessive liquidity control policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global national, regional housing demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction  materials sector stock price performances,.
B. 
Greater China housing overheating ,credit tightening and US Housing slump impact on US economic recession,  and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances and optimal long-short strategy

Session 4
  Strategic government, Greater China QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation,optimal long-short strategy  risks early warning case studies

A.     Proactive structural strategy in China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in Morgan Stanley.
B.  Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 future index prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA
, risks hedging.
C.    SSgA BRIC (China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding
, index pricing performance
D.   Proactive,
structural trillion dollar recession hedge optimal long-short strategy for130/30, 1xx/xx equities   Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism Simulation allocation,  fund  return , pricing,  portfolio selection   hedging, scandals, market risks