b                                        Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                           Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                        Proactive Recession Strategy    Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
　

 Do not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang

 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global  

asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager,

investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Proactive Structural PGFCR:
   Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives
and
    China Derivatives, Summit , Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009              China   
             China/US 2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Economic Recession, Capital Markets Outlook,  Forecast by
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009

Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply chain costs , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis , capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets
　

Dr./Prof.  Warren Huang    黃華南  博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy

will be offering        China Derivatives, Summit , Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY
 China/US 2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Economic Recession, Capital Markets Outlook,  Forecast by
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset Allocation Strategy    
         by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com      Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009     email  wh3928@yahoo.com
　

    Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession , causes, onset, recovery, early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, commodity, asset and derivative prices , predicted year, month ahead of crisis and recession capitalized on trillion dollar recession supply , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS investment and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis, capital markets outlook and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets
  

Marcus Evans  International Commodity Trade Finance Masterclass workshop, 23-24, Octobot, 2008, Resaissancec, Shanghai, Pudong, China

Worshop Goal:  structured to provide the latest proactive  strategic decision tool for global import/export commodity, raw materials trade, capital  on the emerging energy, metal, feed grain commodity

pricing and risks management maximize value chain profit at minimum risks

Workshop Mission: •Provide  proactive structural China/global  trade and commodity, finance price mechanism, analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,  metals, feed

grain price, risks trend   achieve sustainable profit , while minimize risks• Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity trade financing to minimize supply chain

costs, maximize value chain profits website  www.osawh.com   email   osawhh@sina.com  /     wh3928@yahoo.com  
　

I predcited on this blog this march that US stocks will be heading for recession bear market correction, Dow Jones, below 7000, SP500 below 650, NASDAQ 1200, in 2009 deep recession. Therefore, investing in stocks , oil,, commodities, even housing in mid 2009 for 401K will enjoy fantastic return after 2010. details on www.osawh.com/SP500.htm  www.osawh.com/riskm.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/globaloiln.htm

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, Structural finance MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Structural Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession will continue into 2009, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70，Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, gold price from 1000 to 550, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment to Wall Street Journal  Economic, Market Beat, Energy, Deal, Housing Development Blogs:
 OSA global strategic management  economic, market today blogs      www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1   

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 85- 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehaman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure rogam maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stbilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 2.4% in Oct.2008 % after   China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 %start rate cuts to support 2009 growth while next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 3 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble

　

Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008

I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market

correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary

recession will drag banking share further.

SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump

resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking share performance

details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
　

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

I warned on this blog that investment banking , regional banks and finance, housing industries facing continued  soaring unsold house inventory,  foreclosure, credit default, credit crisis, unemployment share  prices facing 50- 70 % correction, will led to housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag economics into recession, despite aggressive rate cuts, drag dollar lower,and soaring oil, commodities prices facing inflationary recession. Despite GS excellent performances , it is tough to fight the turbulent, uncertainties market ahead.
Walmart May sale increase  are benefited by rebate check, can not be sustainable after July , and profit margin are squeezed by heavy discount,
That is why Walmart postponed its store opening investment., It share price all ready peaking out.
Economic stimulus will continue drive up consumers spending for food, oil, consumer products to July, supporting record oil, commodities prices and inflation. Gold price will be pushed up by oil, price, inflation and weak dollar to retest 990.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/test.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.html www.osawh.com/commody.html

　

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May17, 2008   1.52pm and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 
Why oil price and oil stock lag

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm on oil price bubble impact on stock prices

US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors  performance,  

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm

We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility,  consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting.   However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm    www.osawh.com/currency.html    www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1

Comment by Warren Huang - Wall Street Journal Market Beat September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to  do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold

price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price  already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.

bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge  to new low 1.50, it will hit 1.60 sometime next

year.    Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time  high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950  soybean heading for 1200  wheat to 990., eventually will  spread i

core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks price

will not be sustainable, start to  plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into  recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts

Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead     

 detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
　

Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on mortgae, credit, financial crisis, 1980 style double dip  recession , stocks, fund, commodities , derivatives markets outlook

   

 

Conducted by          :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士),  Pioneer of Proactive Structural Real Time Economics, Capital Markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII fund , derivatives managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund , derivatives market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging, market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment.during 2008- 2009

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/US Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and   Optimal  Long-Short Strategy for China fund challenges, opportunities in 2008- 2009.

 

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2008-2009  China/Global  Economy, Finance, Capital Markets Outlook , Challenges, Opportunities
　

A.       Challenges and Risks:  Greater China, Asian , US macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US credit , financial crisis,  housing price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking, finance, energy material sectors  asset prices bubble burst, plunged 70 %, economic recession,  credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals

B.       Opportunities: China , US banking, finance, capital markets reform , restructuring , M/A for China/global innovative financial products, markets for  Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal long/short strategy for   Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time oil, commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, trillion dollar recession hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth management

Session 2 Proactive Structural  (OSA)  hedging strategy integrate economic recession, financial crisis impact on , sectors, business news,, fundamentals into quantitative causes and consequences  models

A.    Monetary, economic stimulus, bail out policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global currencies, oil , metals housing market prices mechanism  2008-2009  forecast
B.  Monetary  stimulus,   policy, housing prices, currencies speculation impact on Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,  Hong Kong H, red blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian  stock indices and Index, ETF fund , US credit , financial crisis, recessison  impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008-09  forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII  long/short  hedging strategy  
                      
Session 3  Proactive Structural credit, financial crisis, recession  impact on China/Global industrial demand, price mechanism and corporate performance 2008-09  OSA  optimal long-short hedging strategy

A.      Macroeconomic rate cuts,  housing prices  , liquidity control , stimulus policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global national, regional housing demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction  materials sector stock price performances,.
B.  Greater China housing overheating ,credit tightening/ rate cuts and US Housing slump impact on US economic recession,  and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances and optimal long-short strategy

Session 4 2009  Strategic government, Greater China QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation,optimal long-short strategy  risks early warning case studies

A.    2008- 09  Proactive structural strategy in China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in Morgan Stanley.
B.    Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 future index prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, risks hedging.
C.    Optimum Ultra -long  short  alphaplus multiclass  strategy SP financial , NASDAQ -100,   crude oil and natural resources  fund
C.    SSgA BRIC (China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding, index pricing performance
D.   Proactive,structural trillion dollar recession hedge optimal long-short strategy for130/30, 1xx/xx equities   Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism Simulation allocation,  fund  return , pricing,  portfolio selection   hedging, scandals, market risks

Proactive Structural global housing price bubble burst Operation Simulation Analysis Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of

equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage credit, default , financial crisis, tracking financial systems stability regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset

credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis , recession Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  Asian Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis recession  Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis, recession  Early Warning  Workshop
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop