b                                                                     Proactive Structural  Hedging  Fund World, China, 2008,
              Revised for , Optimum Trillion Dollar Hedging workshop Proactive Recession Strategy
                                                         osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
　

　

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, aaccurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 11500, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 %,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price and gas , commodity prices doubled,   widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing , stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2750-3000 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2750- 3000  after Dow Jones plunged to 12000,, capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 100, as oil price doubled from 70 to 139. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled
 

  DO not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession,  China /US derivatives pricing mechanism, optimal long-short ,ultra short equities, commodities, futures, bond, macro, arbitrage hedging strategy  by

Dr. Warren Huang who was risk management panelist and    planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer proactive structural China/global  asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening,  US subprime meltdown, recession impact on global stock indices, commodities, energy indexing ETF Optimal multiclass asset 1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy by catching ahead the emerging bull/bear market trend　 

 

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to

do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing

prices ( July housing price  already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut

 mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge  to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,

 Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time  high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950  soybean heading for 1200

 wheat to 990., eventually will  spread into core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to  plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into  recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full  steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead      detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html Comment by Warren Huang - Wall Street Journal Market Beat September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm

 

 

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII derivatives, hedge fund managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global derivatives and hedging fund market fundamental asset price mechanism, multi class asset allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging  bull/bear  market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of, credit derivatives, hedging investment.

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and   Optimal  Long-Short hedging Strategy for China derivatives, hedge fund challenges, opportunities in 2008.

 

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2008 China/Global  Economy, Finance, Capital Market Challenges, Opportunities  Macro, e
　

A.       Challenges and Risks:  Greater China, Asian macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US sub prime meltdown ,credit crisis,  housing price slump , MBS/CDO widening write down loss, recessions, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals

B.       Opportunities: China banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, markets for  Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC,ETF Indexing mutual fund, Optimal equities, Commodities, energy, metal ,  Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA,  multistrategy hedging , allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, optimal trillion dollar recession long-short, ultra short hedging strategy for SWF, pension fund  strategic wealth management

Session 2 Proactive Structural  (OSA)  hedging strategy integrate macro-economic, sectors, business news, fundamentals into quantitative models

A.    Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, .RMB and global currencies, oil , metals futures, derivatives and housing market prices mechanism  2008 forecast  and optimal trillion dollar recession optimal multi class asset allocation, long-short strategy
B.  Monetary policy, housing prices, currencies speculation, US subprime meltdown, recession impact on Shanghai-Shenzhen 300,  Hong Kong H, red blue chips, Taiwan index, US/Asian  stock indices and Index, ETF fund , US credit crisis impact on global financial markets, ADR price performances2008 forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII   trillion dollar recession  long/short  hedging strategy  
                      
Session 3  Proactive Structural China/Global industrial demand, price mechanism and corporate performance 2008 OSA  optimal long-short hedging strategy

iA.    China macro-econmic inflation,  housing  price control credit tightening  impact on stock, housing, wealth effect impact  on banking, finance,  performances
US subprime meltdown  housing price slump, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction  materials sector stock price performances,.
B.  Greater China housing overheating ,credit tightening  and US Housing slump impact on US economic recession,  and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT retail sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances and optimal long-short strategy

Session 4  Strategic government, Greater China QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation,optimal long-short strategy  risks early warning case studies

A.     Proactive structural strategy in FX derivatives and China Sovereign Wealth Fund 3 billion in Black Stone and 5 billion in Morgan Stanley.
B.  Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 future index  futures , derivatives  prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, risks hedging.
C.    SSgA BRIC (China, Russia, Brazil, India) 40 index, Goldman Sach GBRIX, BGRCX, holding, index ETF  pricing , heperformance
D.   Proactive, optimal long-short strategy for, 1xx/xx equities   Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism Simulation allocation,

  fund  return , pricing,  portfolio selection   hedging, scandals, market risks

Proactive Structural global housing price bubble burst Operation Simulation Analysis Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis, tracking regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning