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homepage   Global/ US Fed optimal proactive structural  monetary policy tri-lemma (Growth, Financial Market Stability OSA   strategic solution workshop
Optimal Proactive, Structural Dynamic Simulation of Global/ US Fed   Monetary interest rate policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and price stability without  Inflation,  Asset Prices bubble, Mortgage Default OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control:
2008 economic recession impact on  capital market asset prices, asset allocation strategy workshop
Thousands proactive, structural dynamic Operations Simulations Analysis Identify years, month ahead of  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global energy, financial, currency, housing, stock market  prices bubbles burst, economic recession cycles      中文 (Chinese)
 The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  housing, oil, 20 industrial sectors and downstream demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences
Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer  Dr.Warren  Huang
Millions of global /China management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 

5 Day Oil Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles

 Dr. Warren Huang  who pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 110 　. He predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to 95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer,  business demand and oil price to 90- 115 , supporting  spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts .
 Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economy ,Market Beat Blog- March 10, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economy, Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, gear market recession , oil go to 100, despite Fed  rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World
 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing,
 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 

2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary slowdown, stock markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned US heading for recession summer 2008 , oil above 100, US, global stocks
give up all their gain since 2006  despite rate cuts on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept. 19, 2007

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half
point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price
 already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year, Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 850  soybean heading for 1100  wheat to 870., eventually will spread into core inflation. As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession  and stock markets bear market  bear correction ahead
detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street journal Market Beat- September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary slowdown, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strateDr. Warren Huang will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 2008 
Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco  in-house workshops    wh3928@yahoo.com
 5 day optimal long-short strategy for 130/30 ETF equities hedge  fund asset allocation and portfolio selections 
Full day China/ Global Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
Full day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Cris
5 Day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis workshops
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
Dr Warren Huang comment to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog. Jan 10, 2008 Benanke Forecast recession is tough

Dr. Warren Huang Policy Dilemma,  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy stimulus impact , Wall Street Real time economy Blog. Jan 7, 2008

Dr. Warren Huang 2008 forecast on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog

Bernie Schaeffer on 2008

Posted by David Gaffen

 

What goes on in here matters a lot next year, Schaeffer says.
 

Given all of the turmoil in 2007, it’s a wonder the major indexes are up at all, says Bernie Schaeffer, president of Schaeffer’s Investment Research, in looking back on the year. He notes that the sector with (at the beginning of the year, anyway) the largest influence on the S&P 500, the financials, have “taken a major whupping,” and there seems “to be more and more shoes dropping.”
One aspect of investing that’s changed, he says, is that equity investors can no longer afford to play only in their own pool – they’ve got to keep an eye on much more, be it commodities, currencies, derivatives, swap spreads, and the various permutations of each. That said, he’s got a constructive outlook for 2008, noting how the market has weathered the subprime nonsense and an en masse exiting from U.S. equity funds by mutual fund investors.
“In general, there’s a very low expectations scenario being applied to 2008,” he says. “Economy-wise, earnings, dollar-wise, housing, consumer-wise. There’s lots of potential for shocks to the upside.”
The caveat? He calls the Fed the biggest wild card (he’s of the belief that the federal-funds target should already be much lower than the current 4.25% rate), and says it’s unclear just what they’ll do.

Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 18, 2007

 Proactive structural  macro economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China contractionary/expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation targeting, control tracking. predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag US dollar and stock market for correction,
Dr. Huang predicted June  2007 on Peking University, Beijing,  financial risks management conferences to global investment banks CEO, VP that  July oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600  US sub-prime defaults resulted Dow Jones Index down 10 % global stocks plunged 20 %

Inflation targeting will not help, if you do not have good reliable  real future inflation
That is why  our policy are always chasing the inflation, underestimated the real
inflation. and long term bond yield is below short term interest rate and we think bond is risk free interest rate is very dangerous concept, There is  always  risks in any financial asset due to the uncertainties.
From my Proactive, structural tracking of last 20 tracking global inflation rate,
it is  obvious  that inflation is related closely to money supply growth, currency, un-employment ( consumer spending) and housing, equities, commodities price. you can have low inflation
rate at 3 % , but housing, stock prices bubble burst
like Japan in 1990 (properties price soared 200 %)stock prices soared 300 % like we have stock prices soared 100 %, coastal are housing soared 300 % now, even core inflation still below 2 %, so we can cut interest rate.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 21, 2007 at 5:43 pm
Wall Street Market beat Blog Sept. 21, 2007 timing of Fed rate cut

Wall Street Journal Marketbeat  Blog, Sept. 19- 20 , 2007
Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.
bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,
Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-90, gold already 735, soybean at 945, wheat to 870., eventually will spread into core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment
it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, led to
more default, the burst of next housing bubble, can not be solved by any rate cuts
Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession ahead
detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.htmlComment by Warren Huang - September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007

He warned that  Yield curve- recession , Fed using yield curve for rate cut , 10 yr yield rise

It is nothing to be alarm on Sept 7 job loss report led to Dow Jones  plunged 200 point ( it is overpriced already), As this should be expected that is just the begin of a series of job loss report come from mortgage default and 40 % plunge in housing start, that is why Fed act to cut discount rate by 0.5 %
It is obvious that a 4.4 % unemployment is already inflationary in housing construction a few months ago led to soaring metal, oil prices and inflation. Oil price soared to 77 and gold break 700 to 722, wheat prices doubled to 833.This inflationary pressure will be spread into core inflation, it will getting worse if further rate cuts will re-inflate the housing bubble, that is what Fed really worried about
 Fed does not response to housing prices soared 300 % in coastal  areas  of NY, California make affordability drop from 60 % to 40 %,and pushed oil, metals, commodities price soared 300 %, CPI inflation up 4.5 %, but Fed watched core inflation ( exclude food and energy) still below 2 % now it response to 20 % housing price correction by cutting rates, stimulated overheated equities, housing demand( which is normal supply demand relation)
Fed missing link between housing, equities price bubble and CPI inflation and housing prices bubbles always leading to mortgage loan default and banking crisis.
by maintaining stocks, housing bubble growth, the trillion wealth gain it drown Fed , make it hard to manipulate like current China twin asset bubbles, will reach huge bubble bursts, with or without central bank control, that deep recession following will be horrible. details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html  tracking, forecast last 20 years global causes, onset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, asset bubble crisis
 Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007  and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial
engineering risk management conference  that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage  and hedging fund  default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted  global stock indices are extremely over-priced ,will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes
 into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles  sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain  in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US  Fed  0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further  inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly inflationary and continue into second stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)  Recent Dow Jones plunged 1200 points as Yen plunged fro 123 to 113 and sub prime worry, oil price soared to 77
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,  integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency  simulation tracking into capital and housing market asset prices bubbles (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, SP and global stock indices) OSA simulation charts ( through proactive structural OSA expert systems and integrating into EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Auto-)regression Conditional Hetroskedasdicity from Engle's ARCH ) with correlation constant of 0.99 and maximum error less than 3 %
Global Structural finance OSA structural dynamic, deterministic  simulators on Dr. Warren Huang's speech prediction years, 3 month ahead of inflation, interest rate hikes on last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global macro economic control, inflation, interest rates, capital, money, insurance, bond  and housing, equities markets and 20 industrial sectors asset prices and defaults risks early warning
 
He warned Nov. 2003 on Euro-events  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1,   lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  http://www.osawh.com/ website that US , China housing bubbles pushed oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  Fed summer  rate hikes, China credit tightening,  continue into 2007, housing bubbles induced China stocks bubble 2006  and US housing prices bubble burst resulted loan default,  avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
He warned to Merril Lynch and HSBC managing directors, SVP in Beijin conference June 16, 2007  that US and global housing markets facing loan default risks due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates
 Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman, BNP , American Home Mortgage  and other financial, mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's warning again, underestimated oil, commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on inflation, expecting rake cut resulted betting on the wrong side of interest rates, bond yield drag 10 yr bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang predicting  5.25 %) and US housing price,
and market slump into recession  resulted billion dollars mortgage loan default  and mortgage bond hedge fund bankruptcy
Dr. Huang predicted US Fed Aug meeting to leave rate unchanged , concern on inflation, using housing
market recession to cool off overheated  economy due to wealth effect induced equities, housing market bubbles resulted inflation.
1.Proactive Structural Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM) Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
 Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
 Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
 EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
 Hong Kong money supply growth,  inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on  Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops 

OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of  Dr. Warren Huang speaking,   pioneering experiences in development, implementation of  innovative financial engineering theory of two master hands controlling global macro economic control, growth, prices stability  and daily financial capital market assets ( stocks, bond, housing, commodities)  prices:  Thousand proactive structural dynamic simulation forecasts month, years  ahead  of  macroeconomic  control, monetary economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years  China/global GDP, employment, inflation and   daily capital markets interest rates, currency, bond, commodity,  industrial sectors  demand, prices,  stock prices  market forces mechanism forecast supporting US, China, Taiwan, Asian  government, banking, finance, multinational, state and  medium, small enterprises  reform, venture capital investment banking, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning for  global financial, currency, asset bubbles burst crisis, Basel II credit, market., operations risks  management early warning. with correlation constant over 0.95, average error below 1.5 %, He has been invited to speak to US Washington area finance conference on global financial, banking crisis, ECB post Euro integration, China, Asian 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management, oil, financial futures, derivatives conferences.
Dr. Huang predicted Nov 2005, Beijin   China Oil Market conference to Phillips Petroleum CEO, Aramco, Exxon Mobil, HSBC  VP,and this website that soaring US, business, consumer demand will push  oil, metal prices to new high and  credit tightening rate hikes extend into summer, 2006 Fed fund rate to 5.5 %, global economy facing inflationary slowdown, stocks, bond market follow US for 20 % correction  repeating 2004 , give up 2005-2006 gain ,oil  prices will be soared to new high ( oil to 80, gold rebound to 550-750) in July peak summer demand season with soaring inflation and weakening dollar  despite recent setback in concern about economic slowdown
He predicted to Dec 13, 2006 National Taiwan University International Finance conference, QFII CEO, Journal of Finance editor, academics that oil prices will rebound from 54 to 69 in summer 2007, inflation will be up to 3.0 % , 10  yr bond yield to 5.2 %,
Fed start raise rate to above 5.5 % this summer, lead to inflationary slowdown, and US and global stock market correction

US/global  neutral  interest rate / inflation targeting will all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  current US/global monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy) , GDP, employment data to set fund rate, interest rates  fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset  market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth , consumer, business demand, 53  trillion equities and housing wealth effect speculation overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting soaring oil prices and its downstream 5000 products asset prices bubbles and inflation, after 16 measured rate hikes.
Innovative  proactive FRB monetary policy, rate hikes impact  Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.
 
Proactive US Fed  monetary policy strategy for innovative  rate hikes impact on  economy/capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.
  Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that Green and Bernanke under estimate wealth effect resulted asst bubbles impact on oil prices and  inflation and  oil prices will be soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,  US, CPI to 4.3 % in summer   will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265, stocks,, bond facing correction  give up all2005- 2006 gain ahead. Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2220, S&P 1150-1290
Greenspan agree with Dr. Warren Huang that RMB revaluation and US raise import tarrif by 27 % will not help manufacturing cut trade deficit and jobs.  

OSA China 2007 macroeconomic forecast:
Soaring oil prices, housing and stock prices  (wealth effect, domestic demand, booming export  in the first quarter 2007 pushed China money supply over 17 %  GDP growth 10.7 %, inflation up 3.0 %   interbank  rate t 1.60 is too low, must be back to 3 % in tightening the  credit to cool off the business demand
 As China raised rate by 0.27   supported by  housing  industry economic control two master hands, inter-bank rate rebound to 2.2 % predicted by Dr. Huang. Dr. Huang, energy forecast specialist accurately predicted Feb 22 , Nov 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO,( Merril Lynch , HSBC VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO and QFII, oil, executives that US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into  summer, 2006  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 ,  Dow Jones, 10000- 11350, Nasdaq 2000- 2350, S&P 1150-1350 
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets conference to Exxon Mobil, ARAMCO, VP , Phillips Petroleum CEO, 30  oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils , downstream demand driving oil prices to 64 around Christmas and 69 in January , metals prices to new high. plunging US dollar, stock, bond. and to 82 in summer 2006.
While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, run away inflation, 2000 asset bubble and European, Asian, Russia, S. America currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his websire http://www.osawh.com/  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, run away inflation, 2000 asset bubble and European, Asian, Russia, S. America currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his websire http://www.osawh.com/  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation.  Housing mortgage bond yield are below 6 %, too low to cut demand and asset bubble. pushing oils and construction materials, metal to new high in winter heating oil demand peak due to cold weather demand and soaring US trade deficit to 68.9 billion, drag US dollar predicted by Dr. Dr. Huang Nov 18, 2005 in Beijijn China Oil Market Conference  to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO, Phillips Petroleum CEO, VP  
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on http://www.osawh.com/  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Global Strategic Management  Dr. Warren Huang pioneered  innovation in OSA integrated structural dynamic  predictive models predict month ahead central banks  Monetary, Macro economic indicators stress testing models tracking, forecast its impact on banking, finance  asset prices market forces mechanism, NPL, Basel II risks, help central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives  stay ahead of achieving sustainable growth and prices stability  fighting inflation, asset bubbles tracking  cause, onset, recovery of global currency stress
 OSA  financial crisis, business cycle, bubble burst early warning,  supporting Base II market, credit, interest rate, liquidity,  operational risks tracking, simulation, control, maximizing  sustainable profit growth  in crisis 
  www.osawh.com    About OSA   Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream   workshops  home (中文)
The Only Optimal Structural, Dynamic Predictive Monetary Policy and Daily Open Market Operations Simulation Analysis for Sustainable Economic Growth, Capital Market Asset Prices Bubble, Wealth Effect, Banking, Finance  systems stress testing, Stability Predictive Control : Impact on Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Wealth Management, Risks Hedging, Early warning simulation (  strategic policy , Stress testing workshops)

Special announcement: As of March 31,  2005, all  http://www.osawh.com/    global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, 

You Missed Opportunities  in 2005 China/global monetary policy, macroeconomic control , finance, capital market asset prices forecasts, Dr. Huang predicted oil prices soared to 69  in summer 2005 and 80 in 2006
Breakthrough Innovation in proactive global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,  economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20 years  emerging global finance, capital  stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market  bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005  forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin  pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get  first hand information and OSA  proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will  use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  and  materials as lectures contents  *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks, banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, Sna Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.
 Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference/workshop Feb 23-25, 2005, Beijin hat oil prices will soared above 55 pushed up inflation, interest rate and bond yield extended into this summer. He  with share you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum and your in-house workshop
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf   China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  : The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global macroeconomic indicators,, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences
20 yrs daily global  market tracking  Capital Market  Investment Banking   e-Business   e-Government  Monetary Policy Asset Bubble  China/Global Derivatives Hedging   Biotech/Healthcare  EMBA/CEO  CIO/CKO  Basel II Risk control  Competitive Pricing Strategy  
 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global  currency, energy (1980, 1990, 2000), financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...  
Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last quarter GDP at 3 %) and followed by stagflation this year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
 2007 OSA Macroeconomic forecast  by Dr. Warren Huang   Apr 2007
Global economic recovery facing slowdown
                             Real  GDP  % change                    CPI   % change                     Exchange rate /USD
                             2006           2007                            2006        2007                        2006          2007
 China                    10.7            9.6                              2.1          2.7                          8.1              7.7
S. Korea                 5.1            4.5                               2.5          2.6                         1025           950   
US                          2.9            2.6                               2.1           2.8