first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate

Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  model simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global equities, currency, properties markets wealth management decision needs:

Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,  sponsored by Peking University  Guanhua School of Management, Executive Development Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize non-performance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, wealth effect  bubble early- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets, wealth management  bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

Goal :
Prevent, predict, minimize global government, central banks, macro economic, monetary policy, oil price, interest rate, trade balance , global players capital flow, speculation shocks impact on daily 100 countries currency exchange rates resulted risks

Tracking , simulating the currency futures prices mechanism, the major market forces behind the  causes, onset, spread, and prevention , early warning of macroeconomic, monetary policy imbalance ,capital flow speculation, trade, current account balance, interest rate spread impact on currency exchange rates, financial derivatives markets risks in each industry, corporate , portfolio resulted currency loss. Support, control banking, finance, corporate daily currency markets trading risks, provide dynamic, forward looking market prices simulation, for banking, finance industry capital requirement, wealth management supervision, regulation, risk control.

Goal, mission, performance oriented currency risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up currency Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow speculative attacks shocks impact on daily global:

Money Markets: Short term, long term interest rate, bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market: Interest rate spread, trade deficit/surplus impact on global currency simulation
Currency derivatives prices hedging simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, simulation integrated into Black-Schole formulas for call/putt option simulation supported hedging risk control.
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, 200,000 importer/export  100 countries  trade, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, EUro, S. American CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
OSA-Interest rate  and  OSA-Currency Risks simulation
Interest rate = F( money supply growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate)
Exchange rate = F ( US trade deficit, country  trade surplus (deficit), interest rate spread between US and the other country)
Dr. Warren Huang warned that low interest  rate led to soaring import and trade deficit and plunging dollar in Jan 2002, in Beijin, Taiwan and May 28 in Beijin' global finance conference again .US dollar plunge due to soaring 44 billion trade deficit in April. it plunged from 134 last year to recent 105. Dr. Huang also warned however, stronger Yen and EURO will   cutting into their export prices, profit, These daily global currency market forces simulator tracking accurately last 20 years 100 currency , including this year  US dollar plunge to 1.30 EURO, 106 Yen and China RMB appreciation pressure ,reacting to soaring trade deficit to 44 billion by Iraq war, and interest rate cut, and recent rebound due to economic, export rebound, shrinking trade deficit. 
Global Money, Currency Markets Interest Rate, Inflation Currency exchange Rates Simulation Over  thousands of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based tracking global central banks monetary policy impact on   daily global financial money market interest rates, inflations, currency exchange rates, wealth management  Operations Simulations Analysis  experts systems have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European. South American financial markets tracking, simulate US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy and it's impact on inflation, capital flow, short (Fed Fund rate) , long term interest  rates (prime, bond yield),  trade statistics impact on currency exchange rates, investment risk  management for helping  20 millions global fund and currency  trade managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis.  
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, financial crisis 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes... .
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994 will achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, Global bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.
 He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
and again  to Euro-events Singapore  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops warning  US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy. 
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain     

Dr. Warren Huang will be the guess speaker for Frontier in Knowledge's China WTO pricing strategy conference Aug. 19-20 in Pudong, Shanghai to speak on WTO, China, US credit tightening impact on China banking, finance, insurance, oil, gas, petrochemicals, housing, auto , high tech industries competitive pricing, profit squeeze, stock prices, investment strategy, Basel II risks management  he will offer post conference in-house workshops to banking, finance, fund managers, supply chain managers, risk managers  in Shanghai  Aug. 21-24,  Taipei  Sept 11- 15, Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22-23 , email   osawhh@citiz.net  for in-house workshops reservation
=============================================================================================

for oil, petrochemicals and downstream end users 20 industrial sectors :housing, construction material, auto, appliances, IT, metals 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon Processing  and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html   circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese articles o daily newspapers, economic, finance, industrial economic  newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export pricing  in Taiwan, China.

References
1. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery and Risk Management", presented to Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy to Sustainable Growth, May 14-15, 1999, Macao, Organized by China Peoples Bank governor Dai and Monetary Authority of Macao, Hong Kong, central governors governors from Japan, England, Thailand, Philippines , IMF
2. Huang, W, Government and Business Operations Simulations based Global Risk Management presented to Government and Business Strategy conference in Capital Hilton, Washington DC, June 30, 1999 ,with combined Global financial Crisis panel discussions(including IMF, World Bank, Oxford Economics and S &P DRI, Goldman Sachs, Agricultural economics research directors
3. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis, Recovery impact on post EURO capital markets price and risk management , presented to European Finance Conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 4, 1999 http://www.fma.org/barcelprog.htm#13
4. David Walker( Georgetown University), Huang, W, and IMF director, Brazil Insurance Research Director Panel Discussion on emerging markets economy and crisis http://www.fma.org/barcelspecial.htm#15
5. Huang, W." Simulation of Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial Crisis, US financial Markets and Risk Management", presented to Washington DC area Finance Conference, Apr. 30, 1999, Fairfax, Va.
6. Huang, W, Ji X., M. " Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on Pacific Basin capital, Derivatives markets prices ,risk management ", presented to 7 Th Pacific Basin Finance Economic Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, May 28-29, 1999 , presided by Taiwan president Lee, central bank governor Peng, finance minister Chiu
7. Huang, W, Ji, X. M " Simulation of global financial crisis impact on Multinational Corporate Finance Performance"
presented to Multinational Finance Conference, Toronto, Canada July 7,1999
8. Huang, W,." Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on EURO Capital Markets Risks Management"
presented to UK Royal Statistics Society Risk Management Conference , Warwick, UK, July 14, 1999
9. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on South American financial markets and Risk Management" presented to Conference on new idea, Mexico City, Mexico, Aug, 14-18
10. www.osawh.com daily tracking Simulation of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America Financial crisis, recovery impact on global deflation, credit crunch impact on Global Financial Markets, Import/Export, risks simulation and investment strategy
11. Huang, W, Ji, X. M.,"Real Time simulation of Asian, Russia Financial Crisis Impact on Post EURO financial markets" presented to finance , banking conference on post EURO finance, banking strategy, Nov.-27, 1998, Rome
12. Huang, W. Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Financial Derivatives Prices Simulation , Accepted by QFM98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives Conference, Dec. 16, 1998, Sydney, Australia,
12. Huang, W.. Financial crisis impact on global Financial Markets prices performance presented to EC2, Econometrics Forecasting Conference Dec.19, 1998, Stockholm, Sweden, www.hhs.se/stat/workshops/ec2/

Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer, Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484 (USA

               2004 Copyright osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang 2004 www. osawh.com/ 黃華南博士版權所有 
               No part of this page equation and results can be used without approval of Dr. Warren Huang