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 Proactive Structural 2012  Daily Global Currency Markets Market forces Mechanism Forecasts: 

US dollar rally to new high due to PIIGS debt crisis, Spain Bond yield soared to 7.5%, Greece soar to 7 %, traded 1.20- 1.27 EURO, 75- 80 YEN, 1.52- 1.58 Pound and stronger against all major currency. However, it will give up most of its gain, as PIIGS 700 billion stabilization fund  and China slowdown, US deficit spending cut,  fiscal cliff, poor job, economic outlook, later in the second half . EURO will be traded 1.21- 1.32, 75- 80 Yen, 1.56- 1.62 pound.  Real Time Daily Proactive Structural Dynamic Currency  and Derivatives Prices Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast Top Down Monetary, economic, fiscal policy, QE2  , Debt crisis , Intervention , interest rate spread, trade, budget deficit, balance Impact  two master hands controlling global Forex  daily Strategic Trading, Multiclass  Strategic Asset allocation, Risk Management Research:  

OSA two master hands controlling global currency price mechanism:

Right master hands two countries daily  interest rate spread
Left master hand = two countries monthly  trade surplus/ deficit
This relation tracking unconventional monetary policy  US, UK, China and EURO , Korea, Japan  QE  and rate cuts policy resulted near zero interest rate spread during last 30 year global currency, debt, financial  crisis EURO recession, China , US slowdown .led  US will maintain its zero  rate through 2014, suffered 42 billion trade deficit.    JAPAN will maintain zero rate due to recession  suffered 4.5 billion trade deficit due to Irain tension high oil import, Yen traded 75- 80  Taiwan, facing economic contraction in 2 Q 2012   maintain  near zero interest rate. ( despite overheated housing price facing bubble burst.  Fighting global slowdown, export decline.   Its  3.3 billion monthly trade surplus  led to  NT $ traded in narrow range 29.0-30.5 
Korea economic slowdown to 2.3 % 2012, facing export contraction despite housing market stimulus, m2 increased to 8.6 %, enjoyed 4.9 % billion trade surplus, kept steady Won currency at 1100- 1145
It indicated that global central banks interventional have no impact on currency,
It is this relationship controlling the price movement
EURO currency is traded between 1.20—1.29 due to zero rate spread with US and US soaring trade deficit at 42 billion,  EURO rising trade surplus at 6.9 billion due to weak import demand in recession.

China stable, graduate, independent currency mechanism, limit its annual appreciation below 4 % guideline.
China Peoples Bank recent RRR and rate cuts micro policy tuning will replace 2008 mass stimulus to avoid mistakes to double housing price. As Shanghai housing price already up 1200 % pnce 2001
China  Aug .export growth only up 2.7 %, industrial production up 8.9 % PMI near 49.5, led to cash outflow,  RMB depreciate to 6.38. However its steady 26 billion trade surplus vvs. US 42 billion trade deficit will keep RMB in narrow range 6.30- 6.45

2012 OSA global financial market currency, stocks, oil, metal price proactive structural forecast  10 day investment strategy workshop

Real Time  Currency  Forecast and trading Strategy Workshop

      • Wall Street Journal Blog 1:36 pm March 4, 2012
      • Warren Huang wrote :
      US manufacturing and stock price supported by string of bullish news to new high is not sustainable. As recent job econoic news were bulit only on 4 Q holiday seasonal peak demand resulted inventory builtup and job hiring, while consumer sentiment also supported by spending mood and bullish stocks.. All these factors will be diminishing, it already show in Feb. durable goods down 3 %, ISM plunged from 54.2 to 52.4, housing prices continue to drop. What is more EURO debt crisis already drag into recession, Japan recovering from near recession from Tsunami , China credit tightening on housing bubble continue drag economy into slowdown , GDP to 7.5 % ,all cutting into our export growth. . Strong dollar also drag export, lead to expanding trade deficit, on top of our budget deficit after business tax cuts. All these will be reflect to 1 Q GDP growth to 1.5 % and declining corporate earning and drag stocks for correction. Dow Jones for 12500- 13200, SP 1250- 1360, NASDAQ 2800- 3020 details on http://www.osawh.com/finanecon.html
  • This author trained 1000 students, tracking last 30 years daily 100 countries the currency price market forces mechanism , indicated two mater hands controlling .. currency daily price movement.
    As it is well know that two trading countries interest rate spread and trade, current account, budget deficit/surplus two market forces controlling currency movement in all European, Asian, Russian, Brazil currency crisis, and all central bank intervention.
    Therefore all central bank intervention including G20 will fail, to violate the mechanism.
    Recent Japan central bank intervention dollar at 76 to raise to 80 for two days, the dollar drop to 75 now due to soaring US budget deficit lead to credit downgrade and US facing soaring trade, budget deficit , housing market double dip lead to Fed to hold next two year interest rate near zero   EURO debt crisis,  Japan Tsunami, recession, drive dollar to new high against dollar   are not sustainable,
    details at www.osawh.com/currency.html

Despite US Fed 600 billion procurement Treasury TWIST and QE3 ro buy 40 billion MBS monthly plan  cut jobless rate and support housing markets

QE2 down interest rate 0.25-  % till 2014 to spur up business, consumer housing demand,  let dollar depreciate to drive up commodity, stock prices to generate inflation to 2 %,( already at 3.8 % in 2011 summer. dollar supported by   EURO debt crisis in EURO  facing recession 2012, due to crisis aversion  ,ECB 700 billion stabilization fund will support EURO and EURO PIIGS bond. QE3 will support dollar to 1.22- 1.32 EURO, 1.55-1.62 pound , but US slow down in the second half,   with GDP drop to 1.5 % , record government , personal, business, consumer debt, unemployment  will lead to euro rebound and weakness in Yen due to Japan near recession, push gold   traded between 1650- 1790  .   , Iranian tension, led speculators drive up oil price to 105, , it will drag to 80- 95, after Iraninan tension ease off, in spring .Commodity prices will stay at current level ( with corn 760- 850, wheat 900- 950 soybean 1700- 1850 due to drough damage   steady US dollar gain major currency, and weakness in US consumer, business demand, and China Asian slowdown, EURO, Japan near recession  fighting commodities, housing bubbles, cutting into demand in commodities
 US  Global credit, financial crisis resulted risk aversion, dump high yield currency ( pound， EURO， A  ¥）despite  US f,  near zero interest rate and declining export, soaring trade  and current account deficit due to strong dollar resulted export decline and bail out, stimulus spending, soaring budget deficit( 1.  trillion)  switch to low yield  Yen are excessive, while EURO weakness due to ECB  PIIGS debt crisis  facing default,  Japan near recession due to heavy loss in earth quake, however enjoy 1173 billion current account surplus   US budget deficit close to 9 % of GDP, while Japan also has 8.4 % budget deficit  , US already exceed 14.4 trillion debt limit raised one trillion must be met by one trillion spending cut lead to SP credit downgrade
US dollar is relatively stable despite       US facing housing double dip recession risk and Fed Bernanke maintain current low interest  rate till 2014 in fight recession
Global central banks intervention have little impact on dollar position . As Japan intervention brought Yen to 80, now drop to 76 as it started, give up all dollar rebound

 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating 2008 April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation July 4 th peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China, US  economic stimulus package.
 
Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing , debt  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related downgrade and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted double  dip recession, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeese   , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
      2012 currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US dollar steady in current  narrow range against  major currency  despite QE2,  credit downgrade only depreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.56- 1.61 pound and 75-80 Yen
China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.26- 6.39
Australia 0.95- 0.99,  Singapore 1.22- 1.29  Taiwan NT 29.0- 30.5  Won 1095- 1250  Indonesia  8700- 8900  India 49.5- 55   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 32.5- 34.5
 Oil price will be peaking out 90-100  due to current Iranian tension, and plunge to 75- 90 due   to  PIIGS ,EURO recession , China, global slowdown,  despite Fed  QE3 in 2012
Gasoline price will be   260- 3011  in  2012
heating oil price will be 233-  299,  in   2012
Natural   price will be rebound from   2.5-3.50      2012
Gold price will be rebound from 1599 - 1799  in    2012 due to PIIGS  recession and weakness in dollar
US dollar decline due to downgrade debt limit and poor job, economic outlook but   continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK  support US dollar   1.20- 1.28-   EURO    2012
and 1.50- 1.57  pound in     2012
US dollar 75- 80    Yen 2012 due to Japan weak recession recovery, US PIIGS,  housing double dip  recession
 China stable, consistant, gradual independent RMB policy  will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.20- 6.30  against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)  , PIIGS debt crisis give dollar support strength, China GDP slwodown due to housig bubble control cutting into RMB appreciation
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package
We are repeating 2007 this summer, as tax cuts, QE2 and prolonged Libya turmoil,  summer gasoline holiday demand May- July, will push oil prices to 120 and commodity to record, ( despite recent oil price plunged  from 114 to  to 97, it will recover all its loss rebound to 114- 120 , commodity price  will follow oil price rebound in early summer, and facing bubble burst responding to phasing out of QE2 coupled with double dip housing and economic inflationary slowdown , GDP will be slowdown to 1.4 % in 2011  facing double dip recession

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals futures, Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged 50 %-70 % into 2002 recession low , oil price plunged 70 % from 147 to 46，gas from 15 to 6.5, Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ） 


 Two master hands controlling daily global Forex trading prices OSA  Currency Risks Management:
Thousands proactive structural dynamic strategic Basel II market, credit, operational,  risks early warning,  simulate monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on interest rate, currency,  quantify , minimize uncertainty   impact on global currency  investment  return    ( daily Forex  future trading strategy workshop )

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 Do not miss  Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
             Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
 Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                   Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog December 15, 2008 at 2:19 pm

US dollar recent rally over EURO is over extended. As US economy entering deep recession while EURO only in mild recession with improved trade balance.
Fed recent aggressive buy treasury to cut interest for 30 year mortgage by 1 % to 4.6 % and near term bond yield to negative, with possible 0.5 % fund rate cut, will further weaken dollar strength to EURO , as strong dollar hurt US export in global recession., we expect EURO to 1.37–1.45 As US approaching negative interest rate vs Japan zero interest, further boost Yen to 85- 90. However overvalued Yen already hurt Japan export, down 50 % drag economy into deep recession (GDP - 15.2 % 1Q 2009 ). Yen strength is peaking out soon replaced buy EURO, with only  - 3. % GDP.
details www.osawh.com/currency.html  www.osawh.com/macro.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test6500, NASDAQ PLUNGE 50 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008,   plunged again to 1800- 2000 after Dow Jones plunged to 6500,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled , He warned on Wall Street Journal Market Beat, May  and June, that oil price will peaking out at 145 July 4 th and plunged to 115  and bubble burst, down 50- 70 % in Dec. 2008  to 30- 40
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog  Sept. 5 ,2008 11:26AM  Dollar will  peaking out soon

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal  Real Time economic, Yahoo Finance techer Aug. 19, 2008 at 10:21 am
 Based on my tracking last 30 years US dollar impact on corporate profit, oil, commodities, price inflation and strong dollar did help to drag oil ad commodity price down in recent price correction and cool off the inflation, and short term boost stock indices, confidence, price, (, but it will shown later to cut US export competitive  2 month later, cut into multinational companies profit margin in foreign investment, EURO and Japan has suffered badly by their strong currency. But do not worry, Dollar will be self regulated by economic, slowdown, soaring trade deficit due to export decline, stock price plunge due to decline sales, profits ( especially in hightech like IBM details on www.osawh.com/currency.html  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/SP500.html  www.osawh.com/prodo2.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 11, 2008 at 3:21 pm

According to my tracking last 20 years daily Euro, Yen and oil price movement, oil price is more snesitive to euro lately, due to EURO ECB more aggressive fighting soaring 3.2 % inflation, while Japan inflation stay relative flat at 1.5 %, no immediate threat and interest rate relative constant at 1.5 %
Todya EURO rebound from 1.54 to 1.556 push oil price higher, Oil will follow EURO move to 1.575 retest 139.

Comment by Warren Huang, Wall Street Journal Market Beat - June 3, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking of last 30 years global currency price mechanism, currency are very sensitive over central banks statement on direction of interest rates.
Benanke statement on the end of rate cuts, indicating firming interest rates will support US dollar, as I repeatedly stated on this blog.
However, global central banks are more serious on inflation and rate hikes without risks of recession. Bernane still concern about economic recession.
Therefore, dollar fundamental weakness still exist, it will be traded in narrow range, 1.5- 1.65 EURO, 950 108 Yen.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm

We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility,  consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting.   However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm    www.osawh.com/currency.html    www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1

Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World
 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing,
 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 
  Do not miss again on book his 2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops            VIP/Corporate membership 

Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Forex OSA accurately  forecasts June , 2007 in Peking University that  US  dollar starting slipping as Bernanke statement indicating economic slowdown ahead  ( unlikely in  summer), it will reacting to widening  trade deficit   to  60 in summer peak season , second leg of dollar descend  against Yen will begin  as US inflation concern is over , US housing market entering recession, sub-prime loan default, cutting discount by 0.5 %,
dollar plunged from 123 to 113 Yen  and  heading for recession  Wall Street Market beat Blog. Sept 16, 2007

Trillions dollars currency carried traded daily in global equities, bond, commodities, real estate assets in financial markets by fund managers, traders, speculating betting on interests rates ( most of the time betting on the wrong side )impact on dollars and associated assets.
Dollar enjoyed rally against yen due to Japan zero interest rate, however continue slide as recent discount rate cuts.
and make all time low against high yield UK and EURO.
Further rate cuts will drag US dollar, stocks, bond prices and drive up oil, commodities, metal prices it may avoided near term recession, however, will postpone it a year later,will be followed by another round of rate hikes, led to deep recession follows, like 1998 LTCM rescue, followed by 2000 rate hikes and IT bubble burst ( this time housing bubble burst)
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html

Comment by Warren Huang - September 17, 2007 at 1:18 pm

China RMB pegging policy: China made smart move to switch its pegging to dollar to unspecified basket of currency, adopt graduate, rational, controllable floating flexiblity to avoid US government and financial market hot money speculation pressure
Special announcement: As of March 31,  2005, all  www.osawh.com    global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update,
China/global strategy   workshop, keynote speeches,  Feb.  Nov. 2005 lectures in Beijin  to global oil, banking, securities , QFII CEO, executives  that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 69 in summer 2005  and Jan 2006 , driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge.  soaring US trade deficit drag dollar in 2006  
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, financial crisis 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
He accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 45 and retest 50 due to cold winter weather,  soaring US trade deficit to 55 billion and Greenspan too little too late rate hikes is  incapable to support weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high .
Major Global Currency Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast
US trade deficit soared to 69  billion and soaring inflation, Greenspan- Bernanke  rate hikes insufficient  to contain inflation and support dollar,   
Name                           Interest and trade outlook                                                                                                                                  Currency          Forecast

Name Interest rate and trade outlook near term medium term
Australia PIIGS debt crisis US rate cuts, debt , rate spread US/AU shrinking trade surplus due to commodity price plunge 0.93- 0.99 0.95- 0.99
British pound US rate cuts, debt, rate spread shrinking , but drag by UK and US widening trade deficit  eventually 1.56- 1.62 1.52-  1.59
Canadian Dollar  PIIGS debt crisis US zero rate  , rate spread narrow  soaring US trade, budget deficit  , economic recession 0.98-1.04 10.98- -1.11
China RMB PIIGS debt crisis, China shrinking   trade surplus with US, slowdown RMB appreciation 6.27-  6.39 6.28 - 6.40
EURO PIIGS debt crisis, EURO recession, US , ECB rate cuts, rate spread narrow, Soaring US trade deficit,  widening EU trade  deficit   due to soaring oil price, recession cuts import demand 1.20- 1.32 1.20- 1.35
Japan Yen PIIGS debt crisis, US rate cuts , rate spread Japan  shrinking trade surplus due to strong yen cuts export,  75-79 75- 80
France Franc US rate hike , rate spread widening trade surplus due falling export, rising oil prices 6.1- 7.1 6.1-  6.4
German Mark US rate hike , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due falling export, rising oil prices 1.75-1.8 1.65- 1.79
Italian Lira interest rate and trade deficit widening with soaring oil prices 2150- 2199 2100- 2220
Mexico Peso trade deficit shrinking  with soaring oil prices US rate hike 13- 14 13-14
Argentina US rate hike , rate spread widening, defaults,  trade surplus widening in current  PESO currency, 3.9- 4.1 3.8-4.1
Swiss Franc PIIGS debt crisis interest rate and trade deficit widening with soaring oil prices, soaring US deficit 0.9- 0.95 0.9- 1.0
Taiwan NT  PIIGS debt crisis, shrinking EURO recession, China slowdown 29.5- 30.9 28.5-  30.5
S. Korea Won  PIIGS debt crisis US rate cuts spread widening   expanding trade surplus   global recession  1120- 1150 1120-  1140
Thailand Baht  PIIGS debt crisis, US rate cuts spread  , drop trade surplus due declining oil , commodity prices, 29.4-    30 28.5-    30
Singapore   PIIGS debt crisis US rate cuts, rate spread widening rebound in  trade surplus  1.20=- 1.30 1. 20- 1.293
Phillipine   US rate cuts , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due soaring oil prices,  49 -54 49.-55
Malaysia   rebound in trade surplus due soaring oil prices, global  recovery 2.95- . 3.3 2.97-   3.10
Indonesia US rate cuts , rate spread widening shrinking  trade surplus due to rebound in oil price   8000-8650 8000-8200
Brazil shrinking trade surplus  , global recession,  rebound in commodity prices high interest rate spread 1.50- 1.6660 1.5- 1.90
India PIIGS debt crisis , global slowdown 49.45- 55.5 49-55  

Strategic Basel II Market, Operational Risks OSA early warning maximize risks adjusted return
for   Basel II Capital Requirement, Risk Management conference sponsored by Asian Strategy Leadership Institute, Singapore, Apr. 25-26 for China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN countries banking, finance senior risks, planning management, fund managers ( Dr. Huang offered thousands lectures to China, Taiwan, US TV, radio station 30 million investors, hundreds risk management workshops for hundreds banking, finance CEO, CFO , fund managers.
or reserve his full day in-house workshop email  wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com
 in- house workshop Apr. 20- 23,  or Apr. 28-30 at your office
( he just offered on Feb 23 , Beijing to 70 China, Asian, US, European oil, gas, banking executives accurately:
Highlights:
 * Structural dynamic simulation forecast of monetary, economic policy impact on daily global finance, capital markets asset prices Operation Simulation Analysis (OSA) avoided trillion dollar markets non-performance loan.
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* Corporate cost and financial accounting systems OSA tracking, governance scandal early warning, maximize
 transparency and performance.
*Cost, Profit, Risks, Market Shares as goal, mission, performance oriented  strategic (board members, senior executive , risk manager, auditing team) and execution ( junior executives, risk staff ) OSA teams tracking daily corporate performance and risks, maximize risk adjusted return
* Global/Asian equities, bond, oil, metals, commodity futures, derivatives prices, assets and mortgage backed securitization asset prices simulation, forecast, structural finance risks hedging OSA. minimize  Basel II  market risks.
* Risks OSA forecast , early warning, tracking, forecasts daily Basel II three pillars risk management requirement, minimize  capital adequacy  requirement in daily risks monitoring, reporting, measurement.
cost:  Dr. Huang San Francisco rt air fare, local hotel, lecture fee.

By Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators controlling global currency market forces prices mechanism , trained 1000 economic students tracking simulate 100 countries macro-financial, industrial, trade economic impact on currency prices mechanism, wrote thousands articles and consulting to Taiwan 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, 5000 commodity, products daily currency, import/export pricing strategy in  global currency crisis since 1985.  He has been invited by 24 US, ECB, Asian central governors, financial risk management conferences tracking, forecast the root causes, onset, recovery , early warning of global currency crisis He accurately predicted on this website and to 70 global oil, gas and downstream executives in  his Beijing risk management workshop Feb 23-25 that oil price rebounded from 40 to 50 and challenge 55 in March due to cold winter weather and OPEC one million barrels production cut.  soaring US trade deficit to 55- 60  billion and will challenge  60- 65 billion in summer 2005 and Greenspan too little too late rate hikes resulted excessive consumer, business demand is  incapable to support weak dollar plunged to 1.32 -1.45-  Euro , 100- 104 Yen ., gold price retest for 455-480 new high .Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Economic Policy  Systems Simulation:
 Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics 
 Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,  speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998

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Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop

Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum www.abf.com.sg  China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  :

5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

 30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.

friendly link to www.derivativesportal.org    of Eurex and IMC major currency, futures, derivatives trader in Europe

Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003 that In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not  control, influenced by any country president, central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets  finance ministers meeting. They are controlled by our currency markets forces modeling  of  two master hands: interest rates and trade data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20 years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994 will achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, Global bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.
 He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
and again  to Euro-events Singapore  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops warning  US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy. 
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing consolidation

Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 36, IBM test 87. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 199 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10800, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13900, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3550, Euro : 1.29- 1.39 , Yen 100-105, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the final quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation       

Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/supply chain, Basel II risk control  workshops

 Shanghai  Aug. 21-24,  Taipei  Sept 11- 15, Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22-  23 ,     email   osawhh@citiz.net  for in-house workshops reservation

 (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million government, banking,  finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives  investors since 1983  by  80 )

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

Dr. Warren Huang will be the guess speaker for Frontier in Knowledge's China WTO pricing strategy conference Aug. 19-20 in Pudong, Shanghai to speak on WTO, China, US credit tightening impact on China banking, finance, insurance, oil, gas, petrochemicals, housing, auto , high tech industries competitive pricing, profit squeeze, stock prices, investment strategy, Basel II risks management  he will offer post conference in-house workshops to banking, finance, fund managers, supply chain managers, risk managers  in Shanghai  Aug. 21-24,  Taipei  Sept 11- 15, Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22-23 , email   osawhh@citiz.net  for in-house workshops reservation
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Rate hikes Impact on Global 20 industrial sectors demand, pricing strategy, profit squeeze simulation/forecast, strategic investment, supply chain logistics lectures/workshops tours 

Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

for oil, petrochemicals and downstream end users 20 industrial sectors :housing, construction material, auto, appliances, IT, metals 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon Processing  and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html   circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese articles o daily newspapers, economic, finance, industrial economic  newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export pricing  in Taiwan, China.

2004 -2005 OSA  Global economic forecast  by Dr. Warren Huang  June 2004

Dr. Huang 's  two master hands financial modeling accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, bond, currency commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation  widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency.
Greenspan agree with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis and Dr. Huang also  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
You only have to checking into a few times a month on interest rate and trade data
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of two master hands controlling global forex currency market Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  trading market forces prices mechanism, trained  1000 engineering management senior students develop, implemented  forex trading OSA.  Hundreds structural dynamic OSA models develop, implement out of information knowledge base of last 20 years Wall Street Journals daily market analysts, technical charting, monetary economics, trading data and IMF statistics and Nobel economic prize winners papers wrote 600 articles for Taiwan banking, 200,000 importer/exporters trade journals , offered thousands global  executives currency trading  strategy workshops, tracking Taiwan NT dollar currency from switch from  fixed currency to free float ( 40 to 24 )and its 100 countries cross rates  US dollar exchange rate (covering Yen from 250 to 80, Mark from 1.2 to 2.4, Euro from 0.83 to 2.3, Russia Ruble from 5 to 32, China  RMB from 3.2 to 10.0) since 1985, presented to 24 global central banks governors, financial management  conferences on global currency crisis early warning since 1998 and tracking  daily 40 global major currencies on this website since 1998 ( visited by million global central banks, banking, finance CEO, executives)
Providing online simulation, forecast of global trade, interest rate  market forces impact on 100 currency, derivatives prices and risks hedging  accurately predicted global currency crisis in the last 20 years
 Providing online simulation, forecast of global trade, interest rate  market forces impact on 100 currency/cross rate  prices  movements accurately predicted global currency crisis in the last 20 years
Strategic trading, risks hedging training Workshops
Global Country, Banking, Finance crisis, Corporate Currency Crisis, Risks Simulation, Control
A Single Simulation Chart tells you 20 years story about major markets forces : global monetary policy, external shocks( capital flow, speculative attack, oil prices , trade balances ) impact on country, banking, finance, corporate, import/export currency risks in normal, crisis (1980, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis and 2000-2001 global slowdown), under stress one month ahead. Have  offered thousands lectures/executives workshops for 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, financial, fund, 300,000 import/exporter managers and presented to 50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance, risk management conferences
These structural, deterministic,  forward-looking real options currency  futures prices mechanism, market forces crisks dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking accurately US, European, ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America, Mexico currency  prices mechanism and  causes, response in banking crisis with average error Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as required in existing VaR models )

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.  =======================================================================================
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
 OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
Goal:  
Prevent, predict, minimize global government, central banks, macro economic, monetary policy, oil price, interest rate, trade balance , global players capital flow, speculation shocks impact on daily 100 countries currency exchange rates resulted risks
Mission:
Tracking , simulating the currency futures prices mechanism, the major market forces behind the  causes, onset, spread, and prevention , early warning of macroeconomic, monetary policy imbalance ,capital flow speculation, trade, current account balance, interest rate spread impact on currency exchange rates, financial derivatives markets risks in each industry, corporate , portfolio resulted currency loss. Support, control banking, finance, corporate daily currency markets trading risks, provide dynamic, forward looking market prices simulation, for banking, finance industry capital requirement , wealth management supervision, regulation, risk control.

Performance Tracking :
Goal, mission, performance oriented currency risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up currency Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow speculative attacks shocks impact on daily global:

Money Markets OSA: Short term, long term interest rate, bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market OSA : Interest rate spread, trade deficit/surplus impact on global currency simulation
Currency futures, derivatives prices hedging simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, simulation integrated into Black-Schole formulas for call/putt option simulation supported hedging risk control.
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, 200,000 importer/export  100 countries  trade, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, Euro, S. American CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
OSA-Interest rate  and  OSA-Currency Risks simulation
Interest rate futures = F( money supply growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate)
Exchange rate futures  = F ( US trade deficit, country  trade surplus (deficit), interest rate spread between US and the other country)
Dr. Warren Huang warned that low interest  rate led to soaring consumer demand for cheap import and trade deficit and plunging dollar on  May 28 , 2002 in Beijin' global finance conference, and Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Euro-events Asian/China finance, capital market conferences Nov. 2003 to 1000 QFII, Forex traders that  US dollar plunge due to soaring 44 billion trade deficit in April 2003. it plunged from 134, 2002  to recent 105 Yen , 1.30 EURO in late 2003. Dr. Huang also warned however, stronger Yen and EURO will   cutting into their export prices, profit, trade balance , eventually give up all its gain.  These daily global currency market forces simulator tracking accurately last 20 years 100 currency , including this year  US dollar plunge to 1.30 EURO, 106 Yen and China RMB appreciation pressure ,reacting to soaring trade deficit to 44 billion by Iraq war, and interest rate cut, and recent rebound due to economic, export rebound, shrinking trade deficit. 
Global Money, Currency Markets Interest Rate, Inflation Currency exchange Rates Simulation Over  thousands of  artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based tracking global central banks monetary policy impact on   daily global financial money market interest rates, inflations, currency exchange rates, wealth management  Operations Simulations Analysis  experts systems have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European. South American financial markets tracking, simulate US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy and it's impact on inflation, capital flow, short (Fed Fund rate) , long term interest  rates (prime, bond yield),  trade statistics impact on currency exchange rates, investment risk  management for helping  20 millions global fund and currency  trade managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years  financial crisis.  
　

References : Dr. Warren Huang speech to 24 int'l banking, finance, business, government, academice conferences since 1998 and consulting to Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters daily 100 countries, export pricing quote since 1984.
Profile/Founder  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of two master hands controlling Global economic cycles and Capital Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Market Forces, Bubble Simulation, early warning and  Global Strategic Knowledge Based Strategic Government, Business Process Demand Forecasts OSA Optimization Operations Simulation Analysis OSA
over 30 years pioneering  development, implement of global integrated strategic investment, supply chain  logistics , crisis, risks, business Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) and optimization  ( patented in US " Improve Process by OSA" 1980 over 80 countries) for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, Fluor , Bailey Network Control headquarters corporate finance, information management  in refinery, petrochemical, power plant, steel, copper, coal project investment, construction, design, preventive maintenance, crisis, risk management and strategic consulting to US depart of energy, Taiwan ministry of economic affairs energy policy, information technology,  state enterprises ( Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemicals, China Steel, Aluminum, Reform, change management, and economic planning for  10 public construction projects planning, performance tracking and upgrade, trade promotion councils, and 300,000 importer/exporter 100 countries currency, 5000 products export pricing quote.  offered hundreds risk management workshops for China ministry of finance nationwide 100 banking, securities companies CEO,, CFO, money managers  executives,  tracking China macro economic control, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products demand, prices, profit margin, listed stocks IPO, merger/acquisition reform, investment strategy  Asian, global governments , banking, finance,  hundreds state, medium, small enterprises reform, change management.  He also offered hundred workshops for Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok CEO, CFO, investment, supply chain executives .
 He pioneered two master hands controlling last 20 years global economy, financial market prices offered thousands lectures to   millions global  banking, securities, insurance, properties, state, medium, small enterprises senior executives and China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 millions investors, banking, finance executives  (pdf )on tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on last 25 years global economic cycles industrial sectors demand, asset prices , bubble, privatization, IPO, strategic merger/acquisition, listed companies profit , stock prices  simulation, financial market investment strategy and early warning, risk management (workshops Chinese, English) Global , invited to speak to 24 global( US, ECB, China, Taiwan, Asian ) central bank governors, corporate governance, financial crisis, risk management conferences .  supporting security, banking, insurance regulation, Sarbanes-Oxley Act on financial accounting auditing maximize performance, transparency  He published  32 global strategic business process optimization systems by  US Gulf Publishing Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Process Control, Information Systems handbook, 1991-2003. applied by 1600 multinationals from 72 countries.
He has been editor/columnist and consultant for macro/financial economic  industrial finance, investment forum, energy, information technology, global strategic management for Taiwan government, banking, finance, industrial, importer/exporter trade, investment journal, Central, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economic daily newspapers and  China Economic, Financial Times, Shanghai, China, Shenzhen, Wuhan Securities daily newspapers, wrote thousands articles on reform, change management, investment risk management for US, Taiwan, China government economic, finance, banking, securities, industrials, journal  weekly economic, finance investment  journal, daily newspapers and Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters weekly trade journals. and this website visited by million global central banks, central, state, city government, banking, finance, enterprises  executives.
He trained thousands Chemical Eng industrial economics, global strategic management students for Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai universities and lecture China Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities on  economic management, Chemical Eng. computer control, financial engineering, develop implemented  global currencies and export pricing strategy for Taiwan 300,000 importer/ exporters 100 countries currency and pricing strategy.
Millions global central banks, government, banking, finance, enterprises, CEO, CFO,  executives visited and supported www.osawh.com website since July 1998  (Partial lists)
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Global central banks, government agency:
FRB, ECB, China Peoples banks, State department, IMF, World Bank, UN, OCED,US  Dept of energy, NASA , Ceter of Disease Control, State and cities government, Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs, Finance, Education, Taipei, Kaoshiung cities Academy of Science, Information Technology research Institute)
Global Banking, finance, insurance:
JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Merrial Lynch, Goldman Sach, State Street, Fidelity, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, Prudential, ManuLife, Cathy Life ,CNA, J Hancock , Lehman, Bloomberg, Dow Jones. Reuter, Wall Street Journal, Business Week
Corporate :
McKinsey,  Ernest Young, KPMG, IBM, HP, Compaq, NEC, CISCO, Intel, AMD, Nokia,  Taiwan Semiconductors, UMC, Honhai, Motorola, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Aramco, Dupont, Dow, ORCL, Boeing, GM, BMW, Honda, Samsung, Ford), Merck, Amgen, Johnson, Celera, Weth)
Academic :
Northwestern, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, MIT, Princeton, UC Berkeley, UCSF, UCSD, Pensilvania, , Columbia, Chicago, Cornell, Cambridge, London) from 70 countries 

Services: Workshops , your in-house global currency daily trading strategy On the Job Training workshops /   memberships program  for CFO, currency traders: OSA Currency Risks Strategic, execution teams. All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

Global Currecny Risk Operations Simulation Analysis, Forecasts Annual Memberships

These tailored  made global corporate currency OSA  memberships services include:
(for each currency of your choice)
A. Conduct brainstorming real options operations review, collect of past operating history
B. Developing Real Options  Currency OSA   risk simulation and control decision analysis models
C. Organize goal , mission, performance oriented real options strategic, execution OSA teams
tracking, improving the currecny trading  performance, meeting the goal .
D. 4  free on the job training  workshops for entry level and senior executive supported by ten free simulation charts (for the  single currency of your choice) tracking full year operations
E. One full year  weekly free email currency trading  risk management consulting
This membership is designed for supporting : 
1. Global central bankers and financial institution banking, financial crisis simulation, risk management
2. Global securities, investment , investment banking, mutual fund  firm
3. Global Money Markets interest rates, bond
4. Global Currency Markets, bankinig, finance, corporate  exchange rates traders
5. Financial derivaties, hedging,(options, swaps)
6. Global government, state enterprises reform, restructuring, reengineering

For each of the membership you selected, :
A.Weekly email services for  the following weeks decision support on monetary policy and   currency markets investment strategy simulations  
B;OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will  Setup your goal, mission, performence oriented OSA teams
for you, provide on the job  decision analysis training of your top and entry level staff.
C.OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer quarterly free  OSA strategic workshops

References
1. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery and Risk Management", presented to Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy to Sustainable Growth, May 14-15, 1999, Macao, Organized by China Peoples Bank governor Dai and Monetary Authority of Macao, Hong Kong, central governors governors from Japan, England, Thailand, Philippines , IMF
2. Huang, W, Government and Business Operations Simulations based Global Risk Management presented to Government and Business Strategy conference in Capital Hilton, Washington DC, June 30, 1999 ,with combined Global financial Crisis panel discussions(including IMF, World Bank, Oxford Economics and S &P DRI, Goldman Sachs, Agricultural economics research directors
3. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis, Recovery impact on post EURO capital markets price and risk management , presented to European Finance Conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 4, 1999 http://www.fma.org/barcelprog.htm#13
4. David Walker( Georgetown University), Huang, W, and IMF director, Brazil Insurance Research Director Panel Discussion on emerging markets economy and crisis http://www.fma.org/barcelspecial.htm#15
5. Huang, W." Simulation of Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial Crisis, US financial Markets and Risk Management", presented to Washington DC area Finance Conference, Apr. 30, 1999, Fairfax, Va.
6. Huang, W, Ji X., M. " Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on Pacific Basin capital, Derivatives markets prices ,risk management ", presented to 7 Th Pacific Basin Finance Economic Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, May 28-29, 1999 , presided by Taiwan president Lee, central bank governor Peng, finance minister Chiu
7. Huang, W, Ji, X. M " Simulation of global financial crisis impact on Multinational Corporate Finance Performance"
presented to Multinational Finance Conference, Toronto, Canada July 7,1999
8. Huang, W,." Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on EURO Capital Markets Risks Management"
presented to UK Royal Statistics Society Risk Management Conference , Warwick, UK, July 14, 1999
9. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on South American financial markets and Risk Management" presented to Conference on new idea, Mexico City, Mexico, Aug, 14-18
10. www.osawh.com daily tracking Simulation of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America Financial crisis, recovery impact on global deflation, credit crunch impact on Global Financial Markets, Import/Export, risks simulation and investment strategy
11. Huang, W, Ji, X. M.,"Real Time simulation of Asian, Russia Financial Crisis Impact on Post EURO financial markets" presented to finance , banking conference on post EURO finance, banking strategy, Nov.-27, 1998, Rome
12. Huang, W. Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Financial Derivatives Prices Simulation , Accepted by QFM98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives Conference, Dec. 16, 1998, Sydney, Australia,
12. Huang, W.. Financial crisis impact on global Financial Markets prices performance presented to EC2, Econometrics Forecasting Conference Dec.19, 1998, Stockholm, Sweden, www.hhs.se/stat/workshops/ec2/

Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer, Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484 (USA

               2001 Copyright osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang 2001 osawh.com/ 黃華南博士版權所有