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Proactive Global  Strategic Basel II credit  risks monitoring,  risks predictive control simulation, models quantify, forecasts, Internal Credit, auditing control for credit  default  early warning , tracking, causes, onset, spread, recovery of 20 years global financial, currency crisis credit default, , business cycles, credit derivatives pricing risks ( executives workshop)
Supported by Global economic, business cycle, daily capital markets asset prices , bubble simulation, forecasts for Basel II credit risks OSA- Consumer and Business- Credit demand, default, delinquency monitoring, simulation forecasts predictive risks control-and  Credit Derivatives Pricing, Risk transfer operations simulation analysis

Global Country, Banking, Finance, Corporate, Credit Default Risks Simulation, 
Thousands structural, dynamic, deterministic cause, effect, response models simulators tracking, simulate, quantify, forecast consumer behavior, business credit default, internal auditing , corporate scandals ,  Basel II credits, business cycle, interest rate risks monitoring, simulation, predictive control, the root causes, onset, recovery of global nonperformance loan, credit defaults( early warning for Bubble Burst impact on ENRON, WCOM, Guanxia  NPL)
What is wrong with current credit rating and risks reporting, estimation: Wall Street Journal Market beat, Sept. 24,2007 by Dr. Warren Huang

The current global  corporate and ABS underling collateral debt, equities, properties  asset    (home equities, auto, loan, credit cards) and syndicated loan ( process plant equipments )prices credit risk rating systems are based on scorecard, qualitative interview on past financial, business, economic, defaults probabilistic, sales, profit, credit information , failed to simulate, tracking , predict the global economic, business, product cycle impact on loan demand, industrial demand, prices, profits, securities  credit performance While OSA simulators predicted( presented to 2000-2001 global central banks governors , financial risks management conferences and May 2002 global corporate governance at Peking University, Beijin and Sept 30, ABS conference in Kuala Lumpur, that energy and high tech bubble burst early in Jan 2000 and again in Aug 2001 will lead to ENRON, GBLX, WCOM huge loss, stock prices plunged 90 %  predicted May 28-29 that global stock, fund made 30-50 % correction, ABS will be downgraded and facing defaults , while conventional credit rating misled by corporate scandals downgrade after corporate nearing bankrupcy ( ENRON downgrade from investment grade December 2001, after Nov. stocks plunged from 84 to below one dollar and company annoucing intention for bankrupcy) resulted chasing the markets. announced 502 ABS downsgrade after 20 issues defaults in Sept. 2002

Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,  sponsored by Peking Univeristy  Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpement Dec 5-6, 2002, Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize nonperformance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

click www.Moodys.com for Moody credit rating
click www.standardandpoors.com  for Standard and Poors credit rating
While OSA credit simulation provide forward looking, leading the market 1 to 3 month through structured, deterministic, dynamic simulation of global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global economy, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, commodity, financial futures,
industrial sectors demand, prices, corporate sales, profit, cash flow, debt, stock prices,  properties loan, auto loan, credit card and syndicated loan pricing,   demand, defaults.
Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic quantitative models simulators tracking, forecasts controlling global macro economy, business cycles and daily  capital market interest rates, currency, asset prices Dr. Warren Huang has develop, implemented thousands structural, dynamic causes and effect, response simulators tracking, simulate, forecast, accurately predicted  months ahead monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economic, business cycles,  the root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global macroeconomic control, daily capital market asset prices,  asset allocation, interest rates, business cycles, liquidity, market, credit, operational risk control, avoided trillion dollar market loss, offered thousands investment strategy and risk management for thousands US, Taiwan, China, Asian central banks, banking, securities, SOE, SME companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, trade, risks managers and 30 million China, Taiwan, US 15 cities  TV, radio banking, finance, executives, investors tracking daily stocks , currency, bond commodities prices , investment strategy, risks control,  invited to speak to ECB, FRB, UK, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Asian 24 global central banks governors, IMF, BIS  financial risks management, econometric, wealth management conferences to speak on "Asset Prices Simulation, forecasts, early warning  for last 20 years Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery,  economic, business cycles, interest, currency , liquidity , Market, Credit, Operational Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble   since 1998, published 20 English articles on US Oils & Gas Journals and US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2003 , for 1600 multinationals from  78 countries, tracking ,simulate, forecast market forces demand, prices mechanism, market, credit, operational risks for oil, petrochemicals, upstream/downstream, end users 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products : www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html , and thousands Chinese articles for China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, economic, finance, trade journals supporting  15 cities, TV, radio station banking, finance, fund managers, investors  global asset allocation,  risks and profit control optimization
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.Dr. Warren Huang presented to Peking University Global finance conference May 28-29, 2002, Beijin accurately predicted global stocks, mutual funds   made 30-50 %  correction and ABS downgrade, defaults  and Kuala Lumpur ABS securitization conference, sponsored by Asian Business Forum Sept. 30 , 2002, OSA simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on US consumer, business demand and stocks, fund, bond, ABS credit rating, US citigroup, JP Morgan nonperformance loan, stocks prices,China, Japan,Taiwan, Malaysia Nonperformance loan,  US , Hong Kong, Singapore cerdit card demand and delinquency rate, auto loan, sales, GM and Toyota earning, stock prices, WCOM and telecommunication industry stocks prices credit rating, chips demand, prices,

A Single Simulation Chart tells you one -three month ahead 25 years story about global monetary, economic, fiscal  policy impact on global economic, business cycle, daily financial market interest rate, currency, commodity, financial futures, derivatives, industrial demand, prices,, profit, stock prices, investment fund performance,   risks, return,  and unemployment, consumer, corporate loan credit  quality, corporate scandals, defaults risks: impact on country, banking, finance, corporate  debt (bond) credit risks in normal, crisis (1980, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis, 2001-2002 recession ),under stress one month ahead. Have trained risk management for 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, financial, fund, 200,000 import/ exporter managers and presented to 50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance, risk management conferences
These structural, deterministic, bottom-up forward-looking real options credit risks dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking accurately  last 20 years US, European, ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America, Mexico nonperformance loan, defaults due to energy, currency, financial and banking crisis impact on corporate earning, stocks, real estate bond  prices,  high quality, and junk bond yield spread against 30 yr. treasury bond  with average error Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as required in existing VaR models )

Goal, mission, performance oriented credit risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up credit Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, currency, capital flow speculative attacks shocks , wealth effect impact on daily global:

Money Markets: Short term, long term interest rate, loan demand,   defaults ,bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market: Interest rate spread, trade deficit impact on global currency simulation
Equities markets: Industrial sectors demand prices, profit, stock prices performance, bubble burst risks  simulation,   control: Corporate earning and stocks, bond, real estate , mutual fund   performance simulation forecasts prices: corporate costs, prices, inventory and merger/acquisition profit margins , IPO and stock , bond, prices, bond yield spread, corporate loan defaults, credit risks simulation
Asset Prices simulation, securitization performance and risk control
Office, residence properties  loan demand prices, bubble burst risks Inflation, commodity prices, interest rate impact on office, residential prices , unemployment rate, impact on personal load  demand, defaults,  Commodity and financial derivatives prices hedging simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, stocks, bond, prices, yield  integrated into Black-Schole formulas for call/put option simulation supported hedging risk control.
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, trade, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
Click here for global interest rate, currency market loses related credit  risk

Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer, Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484 (USA)

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