Which have been applied for workshops, national TV,
radio lectures financial risks management on the job training of 20 million Taiwan, China,
US government, corporate , banking, finance CEO, CFO, executives since 1980, presented to
50 int'l government, central bank policy, banking, finance risk management, restructuring
conferences
These structural, deterministic, dynamic Operations Simulation
Analysis(OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on global macro, financial,
trade, industrial economics tracking accurately US, European, ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South
America, Mexico energy, currency, financial and banking crisis, country default risks, one
month ahead since 1980 with average error Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 (
all without statistics probability input)
Oil Prices Shocks Impact on Macro economic growth and stability
Simulation: and Control
|Tracking, simulate, forecast US, European, Japan, Taiwan, China, Japan, Asian
countries one month ahead, the energy crisis, oil prices shock impact on 40
countries inflation, GNP, interest rates, currency , commodity, industrial raw materials,
stocks and bond, derivatives prices in 1980, 1990, and This year oil price rebound 80 %,
lead to April US inflation soared to 2.7 %, US Fed interest rate hike.
The Causes, Onset, Spread and Recovery of Currency Crisis Risks Simulation and
Control:
The Causes: excess monetary supply, spending, capital flow resulted mounting trade
deficit caused 1992 European, 1994 Mexico, 1997-98 ASEAN, Asian, Russia, Brazil currency
crisis.
The onset, spread : one month ahead of the central banks
floating currency resulted currency slump, soaring interest rates and stocks slump.
Recovery: the expanding trade surplus, last winter US interest rates cuts allow the
central banks cut interest rates to pre-crisis level, lead to stock prices doubled in
Asia, Russia, Brazil..
Business cycle , stocks, properties prices boom and bust, market, default risk
simulation, control
Tracking, simulate, forecast the excess central banks money supply, oil prices,
currency shocks and capital flow resulted US, European, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China
and Asian, Brazil, Russia, lead to soaring and plunging stocks and properties prices since
1980.
Nonperformance loan and Default credit risks simulation, control
Tracking, simulate, forecast the excess central banks money supply, oil prices,
currency, interest rates spread shocks and capital inflow, resulted US, European, ASEAN,
Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China and Asian, Brazil, Russia soaring and rising interest
rate, bond spread caused plunging stocks and properties prices resulted nonperformance
loan in the housing industry, banking, construction industry default during 1982 -1998
Financial Markets Systems Risks--Financial Derivatives excessive Hedging risks control
( speculation on the news, betting on the wrong side and following the crowd)
Tracking, simulate, forecast the excess central banks money supply,
oil prices, currency shocks and capital inflow, resulted soaring and rising interest rate,
bond spread, 1995, and 1998 summer US financial institutions speculation, betting on the
wrong side of bond spread, resulted LTCM billion dollar failure and global credit squeeze
Services: Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic,
execution teams
All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.
Click here for real time global country
macro, interest, currency risks simulation