Demand Side Global Commodity , Metals, Energy Markets Futures and Derivatives Prices Bubbles Burst Mechanism Forecast 2009-2010 by Dr. Warren Huang  pioneering  Proactive Structural Dynamics  Simulation Forecast for , Emerging Trend Forecasts:  Daily Markets Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Strategic Proactive Structural Commodities Finance , Forecasts Months Ahead of Global financial crisis, recession impact on Emerging Commodity Market Price Trend, Maximize Risks Adjusted Return two-day in- House Workshops     Chinese  Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to  ,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it

Dr. Warren Huang pioneered Nobel idea on US Oil & Gas Journal, Hydrocarbon Processing, Houston, Texas, March 1983 , published millions copies to 80 countries, 2000 multinational oil companies and 30 years implementation of  proactive structural global oil, energy downstream , commodities prices bubble price mechanism decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy   in  Macro Economic Growth, Prices Stability and Housing, energy Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  mechanism   predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial , Energy Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Global Credit, financial crisis, recession, monetary, economic stimulus impact on Global energy ,gold, commodity future, derivatives prices bubbles burst
                  Global Credit, financial crisis, recession, monetary, economic stimulus impact on Global energy future, derivatives prices
 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil, Metals, Commodity  Prices Bubbles Burst  Simulation forecast

  Repeating last April  2008 tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline, US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China economic stimulus package  and US 2009 tax rebate, 2 billion banking, finance bail out ,led to 50 % gain in stock prices resulted wealth push oil to 60- 79 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200  new high 2009  peaking out in June-July-Aug. Sept.,   back to 70- 82 fuel oil rebound to 190- 240, gasoline to 180-200, natural gas to 3.50- 5.0  in 2009 year end, early spring 2010 cold  winter swing  peak demand  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering, Proactive Structural Oil, Energy Price mechanism Simulation Forecast Real time  Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China Oil, Natural Gas  Market Price  market forces mechanism tracking, forecast, risk hedging
Gold price follow oil price rebound  to 1000-1050  in 2 Q-3 Q 2009, as oil price rebound from 50- 75 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, manufacturing  rebound to clunker program and and housing rebound to first time home buyer tax credit  in Sept.  and gold price will challenge 1100 - 1250 as oil price soared to 80 by the end of 2009, as US dollar plunge to new low, US job creation go into full steam. Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to weakness, However,  weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, deflationary pressure remain ,   falling PPI in China, US, in 2009 will depress any oil and gold price rally. even weakness in dollar will not be sufficient to push oil price above 80, gold price above 1250 in 2009 final  quarter. Gold prices have to test 900- 1000 correction due to deflationary pressure in slow recession recovery
Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100 due to decline in tax rebate demand impact
and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax rebate in  July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession

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   Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil , Metal, Commodity Price Bubble Simulation : Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak July 4 th driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from US/China economic stimulus package push oil to 60- 72 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200 , gold to 990, silver to 160, copper to 245, Aluminum to 0.75 new high 2009  peaking out in June, before July 4 th, oil, drop to 55- 65 , Gasoline to 160- 200  , fuel oil to 150- 180 , gold drop to 800- 900, copper to 175-199 , aluminum to 0.60 -0.65 after July summer demand, peaking out .repeating last year oil price peaking out 147 after July 4 th. and plunged to 70- 100 after
 . Oil price stay above 60  near memorial day, Improved May Jobless   to 345000  and jobless claim to 601000, cut in May foreclosure rate  and  retail sale gain boost July  oil, fuel, and gasoline futures and cash price peaking out 65 -74 in   July  heading back to 60-65  after July , repeating last year tax rebate peaking out at  146  in July 2008 , drag by global deep economic recession, with plunging consumer, business demand,  strong dollar , back to 50 before summer demand ends.
(demand side prices mechanism forecasts) OSA pioneer  Dr Warren Huang predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210 before July peak demand  demand in manufacturing  as ISM PMI index rebound from 33 to 42 ( China from 36 to 53), weak dollar will lead to  gold price follow oil price challenge 990, copper challenge 250, aluminum challenge 0.79,  silver to 16 , natural gas challenge 5- 6  before July demand and give up its gain  due to the end of China strategic reserve purchase for economic stimulus plan in April 2009.  and give up all its summer gain after July   Global commodities, metal,( copper, zinc, aluminum oil, suffering by global deep recession, plunging consumer, business demand, facing bubble burst with   oil price plunged to 50 with   rebound in the final quarter  supported by weak dollar and US/China economic stimulus job creation plan 

China Forex, Oil, commodity , metal Derivatives, prices  Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
                        Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
             China/US 2009 Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis,  Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on  Economy, Capital Markets Outlook,  Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang

 By two master hands controlling global asset prices  mechanism pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000-  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US  - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1700  rebound to 2800 in  2009 overheated in the first half  due to 568 billion ecnomic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 25 %, fixed investment from 22 to 30 %.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious)   speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing  L- shape  slow recession recovery
: US and global stocks facing bubble burst in W shape correction summer 2009, due to overoptimistic over US/China economic stimulus, bail out , resulted recession recovery, As US still facing continued housing market slump with price down 32 %, foreclosure up 12 %, soaring jobless rate at 9.4 %
will lead to recession through 2009　

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50-70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 %-70 % from 147 to 50，Gas oil from1300 to 550 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 40, gold price 1100 to 600 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out and China 568 billion economic stimulus packages to stabilize credit crisis and economic recession.

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

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5-dayGlobal Oil, Gold,  Currency Futures , Option Prices Proactive Simulation Forecast Workshop
 30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.

 Dr./Prof.  Warren Huang    黃華南  博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA
Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy will be offering  
US/China 2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:    
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
 impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,  Derivatives  Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, ETF  Risks Hedging , Investment Strategy
 5 Day Global Oil, Metal, Agricultural Commodity Market Prices Forecast and Trade Finance SCF Supply Chain and Value Chain Optimization , Basel lI Risks Management Masterclass workshop,       in-house at your office at your convenient time

 Worshop Goal:  structured to provide the latest proactive  strategic decision tool for global  commodities, oil, stocks market pricing forecast, import/export and  real time daily commodity, raw material  trading, capitalize  on the emerging NY, Chicago, China energy, metal, feed grain commodity markets pricing , real time trading strategy and Basel II financing credit default, markets price, operational risks early warning management maximize value chain profit at minimum risks
Workshop Mission: •Provide  proactive structural China/global  trade and commodity markets, finance price mechanism, analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,  metals, feed grain price bull/bear market trend, risks trend   achieve sustainable profit , while minimize risks• Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity trade financing to minimize supply chain costs, maximize value chain profits website  www.osawh.com   email   osawhh@sina.com  /     wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global Proactive Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and Real Time Commodity Pricing,  Finance Basel II  Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic Restructure, Reengineering Management for WTO multilateral, bilateral trade impact analysis and global competitive pricing and market shares value chain optimization, risks management  WTO trade negotiation strategy, 
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www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/commodity.html provide the latest proactive structural dynamic market forces mechanism forecasts
 You missed the opportunities on  Dr. Warren Huang s proactive structural dynamic oil prices market forces simulators accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 , 2005   workshop, keynote speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 60 in spring, 69  . He predicted again in Beijin to Exxon-Mibil, Saudi Phillips Petrouelm CEO and VP that US cold winter will drive oil prices to 65 before Xmas and 69 in January, driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge.  soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat from 1320 to 1000, , US will up  inflation up 5 % in spring, drag Dow Jones drop from 10980 to 9750- 10000, Nasdaq from 2300 to 1950-2022, 10 yr bond yield soared from 4 % to 5.35  %..
Dr. Huang, energy forecast specialist accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives  that excessive demand from US , China housing, construction, auto  industry, heavy travels facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into final quarter driving  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 ,  Dow Jones, 10000- 10900, Nasdaq 2000- 2250, S&P 1150-1250 
 He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18, 2005  to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets 30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing US, China, global oils and downstream demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 69 in January and 78 in summer
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Aug21, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil above 120 
Based on my 30 years demand side oil price simulation , oil price is very much depend on global consumer, business seasonal demand on gasoline fuel and downstream 5000 products,oil price plunge to 112 is extremely oversold before labor day holiday travel peak, giving US current slowdown while global travel and housing, auto demand still at their peak.
therefore, oil price will definitely rebound to 130 before labor day on gasoline inventory reduction.It will be traded side way between 105- 120 in Sept- Nov. off peak season demand. and rebound to 125 in winter demand and US economic entering  recession. details on www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.coom/commody.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 22, 2008  on OIL, Commodity Bubble ? 1:46pm 

Based on my 30 years research and implementation of proactive structural demand side oil, commodities prices bubble burst mechanism simulation, the causes, onset and early warning of oil, commodities prices bubble are very similar to all other assets ( housing, equities )prices bubble. They all generated by global central banks excessive money supply, tax cuts led to 5 years global ( not just China and India) economic expansion resulted excessive consumer, business demand for oil downstream housing, auto, metal, commodities, and food.
You must recall that 1980, 1990, 2000 economic boom and bust recession resulted oil, commodities bubble burst. It will repeat again this time if US recession spread to global recession.
you can not use equities price P/E ratio ( even the ratio does not work for current banking finance stock price plunged with PE ratio )approach to pricing oil, oil, commodities, It is meaning less for income, earning for oil, commodities price. You should global demand ( which are function of central bank money supply and interest rates) and dollar exchange rate.
SO it is clearly now why oil , commodities price bubbles follow housing bubble soared 400 % during the last 5 year.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpripet.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
www.osawh.com/commody.htm

2008 Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals and Downstream Stocks Futures, Option Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, Risks Hedging 5 Day in-house Workshop

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