Structural Dynamics Proactive Simulation
Forecast for Global
Commodity Markets Futures and Derivatives Prices Emerging Trend Forecasts: Daily Markets Operations
Simulation Analysis (OSA) Strategic Proactive Structural Commodities Finance , Forecasts Months Ahead of Emerging Market Trend, Maximize Risks Adjusted Return
two-day in- House Workshops Chinese
by OSA global proactive strategic management
pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
friendly link to
www.derivativesportal.org of Eurex and IMC
major currency, futures, derivatives trader in Europe
Global
Strategic Management OSA forecasts emerging market prices
trend month ahead capitalize investment opportu-
OSA
nities, avoided trillion dollar
market loss
achieve sustainable profit control, market shares in financial crisis
www.osawh.com
About OSA Products & Services
Nobel Prize dream
Methodology
VIP/Corporate membership
Continued US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.55-1.65 EURO, 95- 105 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer,demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 355, oil price to 126-130, commodity price will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle soon.
5-dayGlobal Oil, Gold, Currency Futures , Option Prices
Proactive Simulation Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and
downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable
profits and market shares.
Be a global commodity
strategic trade decision leader, capitalize on the emerging market trend, not
follower in crisis.
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/commodity.html provide the
latest proactive structural dynamic market forces mechanism forecasts
You missed the opportunities on Dr. Warren
Huang s proactive structural dynamic oil prices market forces simulators accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 , 2005
workshop, keynote
speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging
60 in spring, 69 . He predicted again in Beijin to Exxon-Mibil, Saudi
Phillips Petrouelm CEO and VP that US cold winter will drive oil prices to 65
before Xmas and 69 in January, driving US China inflation and interest rate ,
bond yield up, stocks plunge. soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil
price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat
from 1320 to 1000,
, US will up inflation up
5 % in spring, drag Dow Jones drop from 10980 to 9750- 10000, Nasdaq from 2300 to 1950-2022, 10 yr
bond yield soared from 4 % to 5.35 %..
Dr. Huang, energy
forecast specialist
accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in
Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII
CEO, executives that excessive demand from US , China housing,
construction, auto industry, heavy travels facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes continue into
final quarter driving
as oil prices soared from 45 to 69 , Dow Jones, 10000- 10900, Nasdaq
2000- 2250, S&P 1150-1250
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18, 2005 to Asian
Business Forum China Oil Markets 30 oil companies CEO, executives that
increasing US, China, global oils and downstream
demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 69 in January and
78 in summer
Market forces prices mechanism for commodity future prices movement OSA and forecasts
| commodity name | market | market forces outlook/ early warning | near term trading range |
| CRB index | NYFE | consumer demand rebound and weak dollar will support CRB rebound | - 299-395 |
| 10 yr T-bond yld | CBOT | consumer demand rebound and falling dollar will drive inflation, rate higher | 3.2-3.88 |
| 10 interest swap | CBOT | soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher | 1.90- 3.50 |
| Energy/ oils futures prices | |||
| Nymex lt | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price, will rebound in winter | 90- 129 |
| Brent oil | LO | falling consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price will rebound in winter | 90- 125 |
| Nat gas | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 8.5- 13 |
| Heating oil | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 296- 368 |
| R. gasoline | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 255- 352 |
| Propane | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 0.9- 1.26 |
| gas oil | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 890- 1110 |
| Precious and Heavy Metals Futures prices | |||
| Gold | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 850- 990 |
| Silver | Nymex | falling consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price will rebound in winter | 1550- 1800 |
| Platinum | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 950- 1550 |
| copper | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 339- 395 |
| Aluminum | NYMEX | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 122- 155 |
| Fibers/ wood | |||
| Cotton | NCE | falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter | 66- 76 |
| Lumber | falling consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price will rebound in spring | 250- 320 | |
| wheat | CBOT | higher inflation, weakening dollar and production shortage push price higher | 880- 1000 |
| corn | CBOT | energy demand | 500 - 695 |
| soybean | CBOT | higher inflation, weakening dollar and production shortage push price higher | 900- 1350 |
| Sugar | CBOT | higher inflation, weakening dollar and production shortage push price higher | 19- 24 |
| rice | CBOT | higher inflation, weakening dollar and production shortage push price higher | 8.0- 10.5 |
Strategic China Hanzhou
financial engineering , risk
management forum Oct 15-16, 2007
Nobel Prize winner Mendal ( father of EURO) Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of
proactive financial engineering OSA have been invited as the opening
guest speaker
Strategic China Energy
trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management in house workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar
global strategic energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock
costs
Dr. Warren Huang predicted
NYMEX oil soared to 55 in March on Feb 23 in Biejing conference to 70 global
oil executives, He will share with you his 30 years hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy
financing project managers and consulting experiences in his key note
speech and workshop for Asian Business Forum and your future
in-house workshops
China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25,
2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy
reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices and gas
industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities,
Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and
downstream
demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments
risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG Project financing operation,
markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery,
early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy,
manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking
or reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by
osawhh@citiz.net :
Goal and
Mission
Do not miss this opportunities by Dr. Warren Huang's 30 years development,
implementation of thousands strategic structural commodities financing
simulators supporting the latest techniques and structuring
in-depth OSA tracking, forecasts monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO
impact on thousands US, China, Taiwan, Asian,
Russia, South American leading multinationals energy, commodities , metals, chemicals,
pulp upstream/ downstream producers, 300,000
importer/exporters to 100 countries, and traders real case applications
in forecast month ahead the emerging trend of dynamic emerging markets
economic market forces impact on daily commodity demand, futures, derivatives
prices, investment, supply chain logistics, manufacturing,
import/export, Basel II credit, market, operational, interest rate risks.
provide structural solution to maximize risk adjusted financial, investment
return return, competitive
market shares achieve trillion dollar investment profit, avoided trillion
dollar market loss, saved billion dollar supply chain costs
Program Agenda:
Day one Stay ahead of the the latest trend in global
structural commodity finance
Morning session
Opening remarks: Energy crisis impact on commodity, metals, downstream 20
sectors, 5000 products cost, prices, inflation and structural commodity
finance investment opportunities, risks.
Global Strategic structural dynamic simulation and integration of global
market economy, business process
process ( from exploration, production, refining, processing, supply chain
logistics, marketing, competitive pricing, to producers, traders, financiers and insurance, import/export markets
demand, prices, risks mitigation decision analysis, maximize risk
adjusted commodity financing investment return
Integrated Strategic Structural Energy financing
Simulation, forecasts of the causes, onset, recovery, impact, early warning of
1980, 90, 2000 and current oil prices, energy crisis
Russia and Kazakhstan, central Asia Energy and Downstream investment, production,
supply chain logistics Financing OSA
Integrating Russian, Kazahkstan, central Asia macro, financial, industrial, trade economy
simulation forecasts into Russia, central Asian energy producers and downstream supply chain,
logistics, production, export strategy
and global energy supply, demand, import/export, futures, derivatives prices,
tracking, simulating, forecasts Basel II credit, markets, operational,
interest rate, currency risks.
Simulation, forecasts of China macro
economic control , supply chain logistics bottleneck, global energy supply,
demand impact on China oil, gas, coal sectors investment, supply chain
logistics,
Afternoon session
Structural Financing in tough markets:
Basel II credit, market, operational, interest rate risks simulation, early
warning, risks hedging, mitigation, defaults risks swaps, integrating
financial market into insurance risks
Simulation, forecasts of the causes, onset,
recovery, early warning of Russian, Asian, S. American currency crisis and risks hedging
Tracking global central bank governors monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO
policy impact on inflation, interest rates, currency and CBR
regulation, operations.
( Two master hands controlling global economy, currency tracking
accurately last 20 years global economy, currency, presented to 24 global
central bank governors conferences )
Chemicals, Pulp, Papers products structural commodity finance experience
Global economic impact on European, North American Lumber, Pulp and Taiwan,
Russian papers, chemicals demand, pricing, investment return.
Structured commodity finance market ( experience with Taiwan no. 2 pulp and
paper company integrate
commodity finance into pulp and paper products manufacturing, supply, chain,
marketing simulation, quality control
Global Assets ( equities, fixed income) Prices simulation, Strategic
Collateral Loan, Portfolio Swap Management Optimization and Credit,
Market, interest rate, currency risks, crisis early warning.
Day two :Global Strategic Trade and Structural Commodity Financing for
Metals, Mining Operations Simulation
Morning :
Opening Remarks:
Integrated global macro, financial, industrial, trade, market economy and business process( investment, mining
exploration, cleaning, refining processing, supply chain logistics, export
trade, marketing ) and information technology information management systems
simulation/forecasts months ahead emerging market prices movement trend maximize risks adjusted return, market shares.
Global import / export trade Finance Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)
Thousands structural dynamic strategic simulators tracking, simulate monetary,
economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on Greater China 300,000
importer/exporters, Asian, US, European, S. America 100 countries economy,
currency, energy, metals downstream 5000 products import / export
demand, spot, contract prices, supply chain profit margin, risks adjusted
return.
Manufacturers management, operational risks, market risks, credit risks,
trading risks simulation, early warning and risk transfer for insurance
agency in steel and metal trade.
Integrated Strategic Global / South American Soft commodity ( Cotton, feed
grain, sugar ) financing maximize
risks adjusted return
Macro, financial, industrial, trade, market economy and business process( investment, cleaning, refining processing, supply chain logistics, export
trade, marketing ) and information technology information management systems
simulation/forecasts months ahead emerging market prices movement trend maximize risks adjusted return, market shares. on macro economic , inflation, external shocks( weather, supply,
demand, capital flow, currency speculative attack, oil prices ) impact on
daily interest rates, currency and Energy, Feed grains, Food, Metals, Fibers Future,
derivatives Prices Risks Simulation, Control for 1980, 90, 2000 energy crisis,
financial, banking crisis (1980, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis
and IT bubble burst, recovery since 2000), under stress
one month ahead. Have trained 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate
CEO, CFO, financial, fund, 100,000 import/exporter, procurement managers and presented to
50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance, commodity future risk
management conferences
These structural, deterministic, bottom-up forward-looking predictive real options
commodity risks dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, oil price
, currency shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking
accurately US, European, ASEAN, Asian, South America,
Accurately predicted on China oils
upstream/downstream profit management strategy in Beijin, for China SNP, CNOOC,
Petro-China and Taipei for Chinese Petroleum strategic petroleum reserve and
oils, feedstock SCM procurement,
Who should attend:
CEO, CFO, managing director, head of commodity finance, commodity trade,
import/export managers,
Corporate banking managers
Cost and Benefit:
Dr. Warren Huang round trip San Francisco air fare, local hotel, lecture fee
Maximize Basel II risk adjusted return, capitalize trillion dollars investment
opportunities in crisis, avoided trillion dollar loss and supply chain cost
Dr.
Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands
for global
central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market
prices simulation, forecasts
, value investing strategy, wealth management,
risk hedging
tracking/forecasts month ahead
the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset
bubble bursts
lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth
management, financial market risk management conferences and
millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website
since 1998 , over 30 million China,
Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European
executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
and again in 2003 Nov. predicted to Euro-events Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
he was excellently received
picture
2 and
to
China economists meeting Fudan University,
Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify month ahead, investment
opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning
for asset bubbles due to excessive
tax, rate cut resulted dollar plunge 30 % ,commodities prices , platinum,
copper prices reaching 23 year peak,
oil prices, gasoline,
peaking out in summer 2004, and stay with economic recovery, demand, not
transitory, will drive US CPI
to 3.5 %, core inflation to 1.9 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US
economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs
can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and inflation outlook
may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious housing bubble
repeat 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July
facing and correction 2004,
Dow will be traded 9500- 10300, Nasdaq 1650- 1950 , Taiwan index
5100- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13400, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue.
Shanghai A 1250- 1390, Shenzhen 3000- 3550, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 102- 110,
US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks
rebound to new high in the second quarter 2004.up it's gain back to normal soon.
click Daily Energy, Feedgrains, Food, Metals, Fibers Future Prices
Risks Simulation, Control banking crisis with average error Below 1.5 %,
correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as required in
existing VaR models )
Goal
:Performance Tracking :
Goal, mission, performance oriented commodity futures, derivatives prices risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement
thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up commodity futures, derivatives prices Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow, currency, speculative, weather, supply, demand shocks impact on daily global:Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out
of his 30 year global strategic commodity, feedstock procurement, financial markets
investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational
headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control),
Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, trade, state and private enterprises
corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO,
CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
Dr. Huang two OSA master hands controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
Services: Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA
commodity future, derivatives investment workshops for
Strategic, execution supply chain, investment teams.
All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.
Website : www.osawh.com email: wh3928@yahoo.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Copyright 2003,osawh.com/Dr. Warren Huang 2003 osawh.com