2012- 2013 Global Commodity Outlook : Energy, Metals , Commodity Market Daily Prices Demand Side Proactive
structural forecast :Weak demand from EURO, China and US continue into 2013
Global economic outlook 2012-13 global GDP 2012 will drop to 3.2 %, due to EURO recession GDP -0.8 %, US GDP 1.7% , China 7.5 %, India 5.6 %, Japan 1 %, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore facing recession risks global GDP 2013 will drop to 34 %, due to EURO recession GDP -0.2 %, US GDP 1.9% , China 8.0 %, India 5.9 %, Japan 1 %, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore 0.5 %
Commodity prices 2012- 2013 will be dragged by weak demand due to global slowdown
Oil price correction from 99 peak to 80- 85 due to Global economic slowdown 2012- 2013 EURO recession, China slowdown, US weak consumer, Business demand, job creation, fiscal cliff , may continue to test 80 support.
Its rebound bull run started in June from 76 to speculate on QE3 and peak summer demand to 99 is over as US out of summer peak season to light demand Oct- Nov. 2012 despite renewed Iran tension , speculation on QE3 , and China rate cuts, 157 billion infrastructure ignoring EURO debt crisis recession, China GDP slowdown to 7.6 .
Gasoline 275- 300, through early 2013 . heating oil 290- 300 correction will rebound in cold winter through early 2013 to 325 all supported by oil price due to Iranian embargo tension. and weak dollar
Natural gas price correction from 3.5 peak to 2.9 - 3.2 due to EURO recession, China slowdown, US weak consumer, Business demand, job creation, fiscal cliff , may continue to test 3.0 support.
Its 50 % rebound bull run started in June from 2.5 to speculate on QE3 and peak summer demand to 3.5, is over as US out of summer peak season to light demand Oct- Nov. 2012 despite renewed Iran tension , speculation on QE3 , and China rate cuts, 157 billion infrastructure ignoring EURO debt crisis recession, China GDP slowdown to 7.6
Natural gas will rebound to 4.0 in cold winter weather demand from early Dec 2012- 13 .
Gold price speculate on QE3 and fiscal cliff will go to 1850 by year end, It started bull run in June after consolidate in 1560, soared to 1790 Sept. inflation worry, QE3 announcement, and US fiscal cliff, weak dollar . However EURO recession, China US slowdown will drag gold price to test 1700 support . Gold price will soar to 1850 by yearend due to fiscal cliff concern
Copper price facing 390 resistance, speculate on QE3 and China 157 billion infrastructure stimulus, ECB 700 billion Japan one trillion bailout and US fiscal cliff.
It started bull run in June after consolidate in 325 soared to 385 Sept. due to China infrastructure, ECB bailout, inflation worry, QE3 announcement, and US fiscal cliff, weak dollar . However EURO recession, China US slowdown will drag copper price to test 350 support. copper traded 345- 375 ,
US drought QE 3 speculation pushed Corn, wheat soybean 50 % in June 2012. It facing correction due to weak demand from EURO, China, US.
corn traded 700- 750, soybean 1455 - 1650, cotton 65- 75 , wheat 760- 800 , will rebound early next year by improvement in economic outlook .when EURO, pulling out of recession, China, US improve, the inflationary pressure will make new high next spring by Dr. Warren Huang pioneering Proactive Structural Dynamics Simulation Forecast for , Emerging Trend Forecasts: Tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy, and QE1/2 ( Quantitative Easing ) policy impact on business, consumer demand for commodity and prices Daily Markets Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Strategic Proactive Structural Commodities Finance , Forecasts Months Ahead of Global financial crisis, recession impact on Emerging Commodity Market Price Trend, Maximize Risks Adjusted Return two-day in- House Workshops Chinese
EURO debt crisis drag EURO into recession in all 2012, drag Japan near recession, and US slowdown 2Q GDP slow to 1.3 %, China continued credit tightening to control housing price bubble, , with Aug m2 money supply growth at 13.5 %,loan growth at 700 billion, global export slowdown, will drag China GDP to 8 % in the first half 2012, and 7.5 % in the second half as housing prices continue to fall..
CPI will be controlled below 3 % for 2012 A share stock prices will follow economy slowdown and falling housing prices, in the second half, with Shanghai A index test 1750- 2000, and rebound only at macroeconomic housing bubble burst, price down 30- 50 % softlanding next year , end of credit tightening , index rebound to 2500 and above by yearend. China will face soaring trade deficit, as falling export drag RMB for slight depreciation, will be traded 6.22- 6.39
US GDP will slowdown to 1.7 % in 2012, rebound to 2.0 % in 2013 due to export decline, expanding trade deficit, budget deficit, continued housing market slump, Feb factory orders drop 3 %, ISM plunge from 51.4, All commodity prices ( except corn, wheat , soybean )will be drag by global demand slowdown in 2012-13, with only exception of oil price supported by
Iran tension, any ease off will drag oil price to 80- 95, gasoline from 380 to 250- 300, heating oil prices from 355 to 250- 299
Our Proactive structural macro, financial housing bubble simulation forecast
predicted last year that QE2 will only help boost commodity , stock prices by 30
%, CPI triple, and hurt real economy GDP. will not help lift housing market and
GDP to avoid double dip, GDP only up 0.3 % in 1Q, 1.3% in
2 Q and will plunge below 1 % ,June ISM plunged from 55 to 50.5 recession level
, June consumer spending drop 0.2 % unemployment will be rebound above 9.2 %.
Global Exit strategy rate hikes and Housing, debt bubble burst crisis lead US economy to slow
in the second half 2011, below 1%, facing double dip risks, follow Euro debt crisis, and China, US, China,
Asian slowdown, Dow Jones to test 9900- 11000, SP test 1100- 1200, Nasdaq test
commodity price return to pre QE2 level while gold price making 1880 new high due to US fiscal cliff facing downgrade
Comment to Yahoo Finance by Warren Huang Sept. 1, 2011
From our demand side oil price forecast, global oil demand decline as China, Asian slowdown Japan, US, Euro facing double dip recession.
Oil price will following gasoline demand , price peaking out now , as US peaking demand ends at Labor day nest week, oil price will be heading for 70 and gasoliine for 220 ,as we are getting close to 2012 recession.
Gold price will have hard time break 1900- 2000, due to the double dip recession fear, despite weak dollar ( it is supported by EURO debt crisis and Japan recession due to Tsunami.
Gold price must make good correction as recession getting closer, its first stop is 1700.
It may trace to 1500- 1600, if recession fear getting real oil price plunge below 70, and inflation cooled.
details on www.osawh.com/goldf.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm www.osawh.com/recession.html
US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM
manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow
Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %,
warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump continue ,
will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts,
stimulus, bail out plan
The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50-70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 %-70 % from 147 to 50，G
Commodity Daily Prices Market forces prices mechanism for commodity future prices movement OSA and forecasts
|commodity name||market||market demand , QE2 impact / early warning preQE2 Peak QE2||curent Post QE2 trading range|
|CRB index||NYFE||QE2 consumer demand rebound and weak dollar will support CRB rebound 290 380||280- 360|
|10 yr T-bond yld||CBOT||consumer demand rebound and falling dollar will drive inflation, rate higher 2.40 3.60||1.5- 1.8|
|10 interest swap||CBOT||soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher||1.10- 2.20|
|Energy/ oils futures prices|
|Nymex lt oil||NYMEX||summer consumer demand, weak dollar push oil price, post QE2 correction 88 115||80- 90|
|Brent oil||LO||consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price post QE2 correction r 90 126||100 - 116|
|Nat gas||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag gas price will rebound in winter 4.2 4.8||2.4 - 3.9|
|Heating oil||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter 230 360||266-311|
|R. gasoline||NYMEX||summer consumer demand, weak dollar drag oil price will drop post QE2 230 399||270- 336|
|Propane||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter||0.8- 1.10|
|gas oil||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter||500- 660|
|Precious and Heavy Metals Futures prices|
|Gold||NYMEX||inflation pressure demand, weak dollar push gold price will drop in post QE2 1380 1575||1650- 1850|
|Silver||Nymex||Post QE2 will drag silver price to pre QE2 30 48||30- 41|
|Platinum||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag plt price in post QE2 1700 1860||1530- 1600|
|copper||NYMEX||falling housing consumer demand, strong dollar drag copper price in post QE2 3.75 4.75||345 - 3.90|
|Aluminum||NYMEX||falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag oil price will rebound in winter||0.66- 0.95|
|Cotton||NCE||Improved supply, strong dollar drag cotton drag cotton price to pre QE2 level 110 220||65- 90|
|Lumber||falling housing demand, housing price drag lumber below QE2 price 280 340||200- 280|
|wheat||CBOT||will give up all gain to pre QE2 level 750 920||800- 900|
|corn||CBOT||following oil price in energy demand 550 760||690- 750|
|soybean||CBOT||give up all its gain to pre QE2 level 1250 1475||1550- 1690|
|Sugar||CBOT||give up all its gain to pre QE2 level 22 30||21-23|
|rice||CBOT||give up all its gain to pre QE2 level 12 17||13- 17|
of excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold
, commodity , housing , debt asset price bubble burst due to
China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related
downgrade and Asian exit
strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business
and consumer demand resulted double dip recession,
while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted global sovereign
debt bubble burst crisis from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee se
, Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and
credit tightening in exit strategy.
2011 currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US dollar steady in current narrow range against major currency despite QE2, credit downgrade only depreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
1.35- 1.45 EURO, 1.58- 1.64 pound and 70- 80 Yen
China RMB will stay in narrow range 6.30- 6.450
Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.3- 6.45, Singapore 1.120- 1.25 Taiwan NT 27.5- 29.5 Won 1025- 1100 Indonesia 8300- 8500 India 42.5- 45 Malaysia 3.00- 3.20 Thailand 28.5- 30
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control, in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 13 % in 2011 and US exit strategy fighting facing double dip recession, with near zero interest rte till 2013 will cut oil demand and lead to oil price peaking out in summer facing bubble bursst 2011
Oil price will be peaking out 66- 86 after QE2 ended in 2011 3 Q and 71- 89 in 4 Q 2011
Gasoline price will be 260- 280 in 3 Q, 190- 220 in 4Q , 2011
heating oil price will be 210- 294 3 Q, 250- 280 in 4Q 2011
Natural price will be rebound from 3.5-4.50 3 Q, 5.0- 6. in 4Q 2011
Gold price will be rebound from 1650- 1910 in 3 Q, 1600- 1940 in 4Q 2011 due to recession
US dollar decline due to downgrade but continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK support US dollar 1.35- 1.45 EURO ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.42 in 4 Q 2011
and 1.55- 1.69 pound in in 3, 4 Q 2011
US dollar 70- 80 3Q, 70- 76- in 4 Q, 2011 due to Japan weak recession recovery, US double dip recession
China stable, consistant, gradual independent RMB policy will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.3- 6.45 against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation : US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package
from1300 to 550 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 40, gold price 1100
to 600 as global economy enter deep recession by year end, despite US 700
billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out and China 568 billion economic stimulus
packages to stabilize credit
crisis and economic recession.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
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You missed the opportunities on Dr. Warren Huang s proactive structural dynamic oil prices market forces simulators accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 , 2005 workshop, keynote speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 60 in spring, 69 . He predicted again in Beijin to Exxon-Mibil, Saudi Phillips Petrouelm CEO and VP that US cold winter will drive oil prices to 65 before Xmas and 69 in January, driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge. soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat from 1320 to 1000, , US will up inflation up 5 % in spring, drag Dow Jones drop from 10980 to 9750- 10000, Nasdaq from 2300 to 1950-2022, 10 yr bond yield soared from 4 % to 5.35 %..
Dr. Huang, energy forecast specialist accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives that excessive demand from US , China housing, construction, auto industry, heavy travels facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes continue into final quarter driving as oil prices soared from 45 to 69 , Dow Jones, 10000- 10900, Nasdaq 2000- 2250, S&P 1150-1250
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18, 2005 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets 30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing US, China, global oils and downstream demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 69 in January and 78 in summer
Comment to Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Aug21, 2008 2008 11:26AM ; oil above 120
Based on my 30 years demand side oil price simulation , oil price is very much depend on global consumer, business seasonal demand on gasoline fuel and downstream 5000 products,oil price plunge to 112 is extremely oversold before labor day holiday travel peak, giving US current slowdown while global travel and housing, auto demand still at their peak.
therefore, oil price will definitely rebound to 130 before labor day on gasoline inventory reduction.It will be traded side way between 105- 120 in Sept- Nov. off peak season demand. and rebound to 125 in winter demand and US economic entering recession. details on www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm www.osawh.coom/commody.html
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 22, 2008 on OIL, Commodity Bubble ? 1:46pm
Nobel Prize winner Mendal ( father of EURO) Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive financial engineering OSA have been invited as the opening guest speaker
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