Strategic China Investment OSA
: Integrated Proactive Structural Dynamic US Fed/China Central
Banks Monetary Policy, Macro economic Control Impact on Capital and
Housing market Asset Prices market forces mechanism and QFII/QDII Investment strategy and
Risks Early
Warning Systems Operations Simulation Analysis,(OSA) achieve Sustainable Profits
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round Rose Garden
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indices future
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pricing
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futures
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small cap
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mutual fund/ commodity/ bond
Hong
Kong H Red Chips
NPL
Asset Management QFII/QDII strategy Supply
Chain Logistics
Housing
Bubble WTO
import/ export pricing
China Investment Strategy:
Proactive Structural
China Strategic
Investment OSA:
Proactive China strategic
knowledge economy, macroeconomic control impact on investment,
market economy prices mechanism, supply chain logistics, competitive
pricing Competitive Intelligence Decision Operations Simulation Analysis / Forecasts,
supporting daily China/ Global Government, Banking,
Finance, Business, Personal Decisions in
crisis, Basel II risks early warning
What is China Investment Strategy OSA and its achievements
OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang CV
,
extend his Ph.D Thesis Moon landing guidance and
control methodology
by integrating
China
Proactive
Structural Dynamic macro economic control into 20 industrial sectors
microeconomic
supply, demand price mechanism and daily financial markets equities,
bond, currency, commodities, listed stock prices for Strategic
investment banking , capital markets reform, innovative
decisions Operations Simulation
Analysis (OSA) , supported by
goal , mission, performance
tracking, optimization for government ,banking, finance business
fighting last 20 years uncertain, unknown futures
Thousands decision simulators integrating monetary, economic policy into
daily capital market
prices,
business performance, capitalize years, months ahead of last 20 year
opportunities and crisis , change
personal life, change business and world decision making, achieving sustainable profit, market
shares
growth, making personal, corporate dreams come true.
Macroeconomic control, Capital Markets , Banking, Finance Reform Oil prices Impact on 2007
China/US Economy, financial, capital markets , housing
markets outlook
China/Global QFII / QDII Optimal Asset Allocation, Portfolio Selection Strategic
Wealth Management Basel II Market,
Credit, Operational, interest rate Risks Control OSA Global Workshops
Dr. Warren Huang CV
Dr. Warren Huang English
publications, speech
2007 Proactive global
strategic mutual fund and wealth management investment strategy and
risks early warning
He
will be the full day master class workshop leader on Emerging
Opportunities and Risks in Strategic China Fund and
Wealth Management for Terrapinns 2007 China Fund and Wealth Management Conference, Oct 2007 at Pudong
Shangri-La Hotel,
Global/ China/ economy, capital market asset prices
simulation, bubbles early warning, risk control
By Dr. Warren Huang, Global leader and pioneer in
Global capital markets asset prices simulation, asset allocation, portfolio
management OSA
wh3928@yahoo.com USA
US/China central banks neutral interest rate or inflation targeting
will all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to
Current US/China monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on
30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based
on lagging distorted core inflation( exclude food and energy or distorted
energy prices) to set interbank rate, fail to predict its its impact
on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset and its downstream products
market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted excessive
money supply growth in 2003, consumer, business demand, wealth effect
speculation since then overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to
doing too little, too late in fighting potential inflation and soaring housing
construction material asset bubbles.
While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive
structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have
been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years
misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy
energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, China 1994 run away inflation
offered thousands lectures to China Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Guanchow
, Taiepi, US San Francisco 15 cities TV, radio investors, traders, hundred
banking finance companies CEO, fund managers, executives, predicted 1994- 1998
macro economic control, soft landing, and Asian currency crisis,
results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks governors
monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial
crisis risk management conferences and his website
www.osawh.com (visited by 82 countries
central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted in 2003 that
US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive
rates tax cuts, rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation
resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate
hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging,
distorted " core inflation " following same mistakes in the last 20
years boom and bust.
GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed
maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate
hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation.
Housing mortgage bond yield are below 6 %, too low to cut demand and asset
bubble. pushing oils and construction materials, metal to new high in winter
heating oil demand peak due to cold weather demand and soaring US trade deficit
to 68.9 billion, drag US dollar predicted by Dr. Dr. Huang Nov 18, 2005 in
Beigijn China Oil Market Conference to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO, Phillips
Petroleum CEO, VP
US/China
2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global
finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and
www.osawh.com
website warning
global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts,
ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on www.osawh.com
website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted
inflation, excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil,
metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to
5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US
excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little,
too late , China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand led
to China Sept. 2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at
9.4 % due to increasing business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14
% Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset
prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon
will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices
mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.
US Greenspan, global economists,
market analysts over optimistic over oil, commodity weakness and
underestimate inflationary pressure and 10 yr. bond yield too low ,
long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and
consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 and
2005 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job
creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below
112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday
season, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 48 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as
predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004
and repeating in 2005 with US trade deficit
soared to 55- 60 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes
after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit
, productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,
peaking out, economic leading indicators declined for 6 months
,business facing profit squeeze in second half 2004,
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
. Huang pioneered two master hands thousands
structural dynamic proactive quantitative models accurately predicted last
20 years global economy and daily capital market asset prices , presented to 24
global central bank governors, risk management conferences , He predicted again 2003 Nov. 2003 to
Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
with photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital
Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2 to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers,
identify month
ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China
A blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and
value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and
and to
China
economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003
early warning for 2004 asset bubbles
in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak,
( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will
drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and
rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004, Oct. 0.27 % and more )will drive
2005 GDP to 7.5 % despite
2004 GDP of 9.1%
Goal and Mission
OSA inviting you to our Global/ China/ Asian Economy and Capital Market Asset
Prices Simulation, Bubbles Early warning, Asset allocation, portfolio
Investment strategy, Basel II Risk management
in-house executives workshops,
supporting China/ Asian/global QFII/QDII
optimal global asset allocation, portfolio management strategy banking, finance, enterprises reform :
What is
the impact of global oil, commodities price bubbles, China/US rate hikes on
China/Asian/US /global export, economy, capital markets asset prices, asset
allocation value investment strategy?
These workshops will bring you millions global/China executives
feedback from thousands of our
past workshops , forecasts the what, why
of how , when of market forces
controlling last 20 years global/China
economy, capital market asset prices
by Dr. Huang’s pioneering two master hands.
Over 60 ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan QFII, multinationals( Citicorp, UBS,
BNP, ABN, Deutsch Bank, DBS, Bank of
Singapore, Motorola, Acer, Texaco,
AIG, Ernest Young, Bearingpoint ) companies VP, executives contact for these
workshops since Nov. 5, 2003
Global Capital Markets Asset
Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2005 strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30
million , banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior
executives investors since 1983,
Taipei Dec 4- 8, 2004
80
email
osawhh@citiz.net ,
wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management
==China
stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles
warning workshops== , reserve osawhh@citiz.net
===========================================================================
workshop highlights
( select the subject of your interests )
A Monetary, Economic , fiscal Policy ,
WTO impact on Greater China /Asian/ Global Economic Recovery : GDP, Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI: China
Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore
US, Western / E. Europe, Russia
Japan, Korea
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact on China/global Capital Markets, Fund return
, risks:
China
Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore
US, EMU EURO / Eastern Europe, Russia Japan, Korea
.China Inflation, Interest rates,
government, corporate bond yield and fixed income fund forecasts risk s early warning
. China state enterprises reform privatization and IPO
performance, stock pricing strategy
·China Strategic Corporate Governance, supervision,
financial systems monitoring , stock prices bubbles, early warning
·China Banking, finance reform, IPO,
Securities, Banking, Insurance , regulation, supervision Basel II risk
early warning
. Causes, onset, recovery, early warning of China/Asian
financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets
currency, credit, market risk
simulation, hedging, plant equipment performance and syndicated loan,
securitization
· Strategic Global/China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing
pricing
· Equity fund capital markets: Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B
,Henseng , Blue chips, Red
chips, H share, Taiwan Japan, US, Russia, global
indices futures,
Index fund ,
ETF
, derivatives prices mechanism, Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. China RMB pricing mechanism , major global currency
market futures, derivatives prices ,
forecasts, risk hedging
.Global biotech products, markets innovation, investors sentiment impact on
IPO, stock prices performances
. IT post bubble recovery, housing, auto, steel bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks,
mutual fund performance
.Oils, metals commodity futures, derivatives prices, earning, stock prices , mutual fund
performance, hedging risks.
· Shanghai, Shenzhen A,
B listed stocks corporate earning, stock prices, China fund,
derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical,
fiber/textile corporate early, stocks prices, mutual fund performance,
investment strategy.
China mutual fund
and global mutual fund
performance , investment and distribution strategy.
China /US /Global Strategic
pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock prices, investment strategy
· Assets ( Auto, credit cards )
and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitization prices, defaults
risks simulation
·China/US equities and
properties housing bubble wealth effect
investment strategy simulation and risks management
.China /US Debt, equities,
money, energy, gold , index mutual fund performance, asset allocation
risk management
China and US , Global monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on Japan, Asian
economy, capital markets prices Mutual fund Optimal Asset Allocation strategy:
US China Hong Kong Taiwan
Singapore, Malaysia, Japan
Korea, Thailand, India
Eastern Europe/Russia EURO
==============================================================================================
Who
should attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO board members, financial institution CEO,
CFO, managing directors, asset, fund
managers, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers,
equities, currency, bond, commodity futures, trading managers, traders,
investors.
Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang’s round trip San Francisco
Air fare, hotel plus lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion
dollar investment opportunities, while avoided chasing the markets resulted
trillion dollar loss.
Language: Mandarin or English
Reserve your in-house workshops (June) osawhh@citiz.net ( Chinese)
or wh3928@yahoo.com ( English )
5- day
Global Oil, Gold, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Simulation Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and
downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable
profits and market shares.
Dr. Warren Huang
has 30 years pioneering Wall
Street research for US major oils, Taiwan, China government, banking,
securities, insurance, properties companies, state , medium enterprises global
investment ,supply chain strategy, tracking monetary , economic, fiscal ,WTO
policy impact on last 20 years global economy, financial, energy crisis
and daily capital markets asset prices,
spend half time wrote thousands articles on daily newspaper, investor journal
in Taiwan tracking Taiwan, US, global stock markets listed stocks since 1985
(index from 650 to 12800) and 300,000
Taiwan importer/exporters 100 countries currency export quote strategy OSA,
spend half time in China, accurately predicted China 1994 macroeconomic control and 1996
soft-landing and current credit
tightening and root causes, onset,
recovery Asian and global financial, currency, energy crisis and current high
tech bubble burst recovery.
He has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors ( China
Peoples Bank, US, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks) and financial risk
management, Shanghai world economic forum
conferences; offered thousand executives investment strategy workshops
to million China, Taiwan, Hong Kong government, banking, securities, insurance,
properties cos CEO, CFO, money managers and daily, weekly market commentary
for China, Taiwan 15 cities ( Shanghai,
Bejiin, Shenzhen, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) 30 million TV, radio
financial executives, VIP investors
since 1994
He has been keynote speaker, offered full day workshops for IBC Asia, Asian
Business Forum and EURO-EVENTS conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, China
SINOPEC and World Economic Forum in Beijin, Shanghai,
Dr. Huang’s 20 years global
tracking record:, always predicted 3-6 month ahead global financial
, global stock indices,
currency, energy, commodity futures and
housing ,asset bubble burst crisis, avoided trillion dollar market loss and NPL
loan.
China experience :He offered thousands
lectures to 30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV, radio 30
million investors, VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national
securities news papers and thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide banking,
securities, insurance, properties CEO, manager, daily securities news
accurately predicted China macro-economic control, credit tightening , Shanghai
A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96 and first rate cut, soft landing, March
1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong financial crisis. 1997-1998. He
accurately predicted on his website and Shanghai workshop March 2003 China A
share rebound to 1650 and again in May warned Steel, auto, housing market
overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit tightening, raise deposit ratio 1
% in Sept.2003 and 0.5 % again in Apr 2004
Tracking resulted witness by million global
government , central banks, banking, finance, insurance, corporate executives, academics visited our www.osawh.com website for the
strategic wealth management , asset allocation, risk management
Goal and Mission, performance oriented
workshops tailored to your need,
Choose your own country/industry/subjects
for each 2 hour session
China
ADR shares prices OSA, asset bubble earning warning,
|
Name |
Symbols |
outlook. early warning |
trading range |
|
|
China Mobil HK |
CHL |
credit tightening, price cutting, competition |
11- 18 |
|
|
China Unicom |
CHU |
credit tightening, price cutting, competition |
6- - 10 |
|
|
China Telecom |
CHA |
credit tightening, price cutting, competition |
20- 30 |
|
|
China PetroChem Corp |
SNP |
soaring oil, rising costs, credit tightening in auto, housing |
28- 35 |
|
|
PetroChina |
PTR |
soaring oil, rising costs, sensitive to oil price bubble |
35- 50 |
|
|
CNOOC |
CEO |
soaring oil, rising costs, sensitive to oil price bubble |
30- 45 |
|
|
China Life Ins. |
LFC |
credit tightening, rising delinquency, default |
18- 25 |
|
|
Alumina Corp China |
ACH |
credit tightening, energy shortage, soaring cost |
51—75 |
|
|
Shangha Luijiazui |
SLUJY |
credit tightening, default, peaking out in demand |
3- 4.5 |
|
|
GuanshenRailway |
GSH |
soaring cost , competition from bus |
12- 17 |
|
|
Shanghai Petrochemical |
SHI |
soaring oil, rising costs, credit tightening in auto, housing |
29- 36 |
|
|
Yizheng fibers |
|
soaring oil, rising costs, falling prices, margin |
16- 20 |
|
|
China EasternAir |
CEA |
soaring fuel cost, price cutting |
15- 20 |
|
|
Angang Steel |
ANGGY |
credit tightening, energy shortage, soaring cost |
13- 20 |
|
|
|
|
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Top 25
funds are ranked by year to date performance as of 2004-04-19
from AOL personal finance morning star http://poweredby.morningstar.com/selectors/AolTop25/UNVYTD.html
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