Tracking all Crisis since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, 1987 stock crash, 1992 European, , 1995 Mexico, 1994-96 China runaway inflation, soft landing, 1997- 98 Asian, Russia, Brazil  currency crisis and 2000 US high tech bubble burst  have been caused by excessive money supply due to excessive consumer and corporate, government spending (debt)( use stocks as  collateral ) leading to skyrocketing demand, properties, products asset bubbles, stocks, prices and labor costs, resulted mounting trade and current account deficit, led to currency plunge by global players currency speculative attacks, shocks in oils, commodities high tech stock  prices and financial markets plunge  in  trillions dollars stocks loss resulted nonperformance loan (margin call and collaterate) OTC financial derivatives excessive leverage LTCM billions dollar loses due to poor monetary policy, financial markets investment,   credit risk decisions

Global Central Banks Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact on Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth bubbles burst, Oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD GROWTH AND PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (  RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global macro economic, business cycles, inflation, asset prices, bubbles  predicted 1- 3 month ahead :achieving growth and prices stability control
Dr. Huang two master hands  accurately predicted the causes, onset, of global high tech bubble burst, spread, recovery of  2000- 2003
Global Capital Market Strategic Investment Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Workshops
   China banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management strategy SUMMIT forum
China economy, capital market asset prices simulation, bubbles early warning, risk management 

                                          By  Dr. Warren Huang,  OSA     USA
 

 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China  first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20- 40 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, must  follow US rate hike in Sept.  implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . any postpone of rate rate hike will further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 50 and metals to  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. (
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq  1750- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.26 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   
 

OSA inviting you to our  China Economy and Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation, Bubbles Early warning, Risk management  in-house summit workshops, supporting China banking, finance, enterprises reform :
What is the future of  US, Asian, China, economic recovery, risks, return in post WTO China capital markets
These workshops will bring you millions global executives  feedback  from our past workshops , forecasts the what, why  of how  market forces controlling last 20 years global economy, capital market asset prices  , China/global 20 industrial sectors demand, import/export prices mechanism, listed stocks profits margin, stock prices simulation, forecast, published 20 English articles on US Oil and Gas Journals, Hydrocarbon Processing information management systems, advanced control handbook 1991-2003, with 1600 China, global multinationals executives from 78 countries applied www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html and thousands Chinese articles (100 million copies)  on China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, industrial, trade journals

workshop topics: 

A  Monetary, Economic Policy , WTO impact on Greater China  Economic Recovery : GDP,  Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI:    China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore   
B. Asian/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact  on China Capital Markets return and risks:
 China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore
. Inflation, Interest rates, government, corporate bond capital market  forecasts
. China state enterprises reform privatization and IPO performance, stock pricing strategy
·Strategic Corporate Governance financial systems monitoring , stock prices bubbles, early warning
·Banking, finance reform,  Securities, Banking, Insurance market regulation, supervision early warning
. Causes, onset,  recovery, early warning of China financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan
· Strategic China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign  IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing pricing
· Equity Capital markets:  Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng , Blue chips, Red chips, H share, Taiwan    indices futures,  derivatives  prices mechanism,  Forecasts
. RMB pricing mechanism and Asian currency market  futures, derivatives prices mechanism , forecasts
. IT  post bubble recovery,  housing, auto, steel  bubbles demand, prices, earning, stock performance
.Oils, commodity demand, futures, derivatives  prices, earning, stock prices performance, hedging  risks.
· Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B  listed stocks  corporate earning, stock prices,  derivatives risks hedging
. China Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions performance, stock prices, investment strategy
· Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitisation prices,  defaults risks simulation
·China equities and properties  wealth effect investment strategy simulation and risks management 
. China Debt, equities, money, energy , gold , index  mutual  fund performance, risk management
 
Dr. Warren Huang  has 30 years pioneering  Wall Street research  for US major oils,  Taiwan, China government, banking, securities, insurance, properties companies, state , medium enterprises global investment ,supply chain strategy tracking monetary , economic, WTO policy impact on last 20 years and current   global economy daily capital markets and 300,000 Taiwan importer/exporters 100 countries currency export quote strategy OSA, accurately predicted the root causes, onset, recovery Asian and global financial, currency, energy crisis and current high tech bubble burst  recovery.
He has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors ( China Peoples Bank, US, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks) and financial risk management, Shanghai world economic forum,  conferences; offered thousand executives investment strategy workshops to million China, Taiwan, Hong Kong government, banking, securities, insurance, properties cos CEO, CFO, money managers and daily, weekly market commentary for  China, Taiwan 15 cities ( Shanghai, Bejiin, Shenzhen, Taipei) 30 million  TV, radio  financial executives, investors since 1994
He has been keynote speaker, offered full day workshops for IBC Asia, Asian Business Forum and EURO-EVENTS conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Beijin, Shanghai,Millions global central banks, top banks, investment bankers, securities, insurance companies, stock exchanges, multinational CEO, CFO, executives visited www.osawh.com website tracking global economy and  daily capital markets asset prices since 1998.

 Who will attend:
Domestic, global multinational corporations, financial institution CEO, CFO, managing directors, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers, equities, currency, bond, commodity traders, investors.
Language:  Mandarin or English
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance, Economic University China Finance for Sustainable Growth Conference in Shanghai Oct. 25 , and Fudan University China 3^rd Economic conference Dec 20-21Shanghai.  Reserve your  Shanghai/Beijin   Oct. 27- Nov. 3 and Nov 25- Dec. 17  in-house workshop  
He will also speak to EURO-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market SUMMIT Conference , Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore Asian government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on Monetary , Economic, fiscal policy impact on Asian economic outlook and capital market opportunities, risks.  Reserve your Singapore Nov. 6- 9  in-house workshops    osawhh@citiz.net     ( Chinese)    or wh3928@yahoo.com   ( English )
Book your local in-house full day workshops
Shanghai      Beijin       Taipei      Singapore         Hong  Kong 

prices corporate earning and global stock prices, bubble bursts,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties  auto, steel prices, rent,
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
6. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on FDI capital flow 

William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :

Inflation rate is closely related to consumer spending, money supply growth, commodity, oil prices, currency exchange rate which is no longer reflect the asset bubble prices overheat and burst in Japan 1990 and US in 2002 warned by Dr. Huang in global central banks governors conference.
GNP is related to monetary policy, consumer spending and export growth 
Property prices and wealth effect are related to monetary policy and stock prices gain 
NAPM ( National Purchaser Managers Index are related to consumer spending, monetary policy policy and stock prices gain
Business, consumer spending are sensitive to monetary policy, stock prices gain, and currency

OSA for  current Global economy: Dr. Huang warned on Asian Business Forum Asset Backed Securitization  that US , China , ASEAN, Korea Australia, UK housing, auto , steel overheated facing bubble burst. risks Oct. 2002.
Global economy facing uneven development due to excessive money supply growth (US follow Japan misguided  1990  misguided by the supply side economy, money supply growth equals to GDP and inflation, rates , tax cuts, fiscal stimulus ( both at low inflation rate )resulted overheated housing, auto demand and soaring housing in US, China, Korea, Australia, Canada, UK, Spain, while the rest of the manufacturing still facing deflation pressure, US housing loan plunged to one year low as mortgage rate rebound 1 %Freddie Mac scandal in the housing bubble and China housing, banking, auto stocks plunged 30-50 % due to China Peoples banks concerned on excessive loan demand (23 % increase ) led to China Peoples Bank raised capital reserve ratio from 6 % to 7 %, Shanghai A will be retest 1350-1450, Shenzhen A  2850- 3050
US market analyst, economist over-optimistic again over second half recovery due to rate, tax cut pushed Dow to 9590 , Nasdaq to 1900  and pushed global stock to new high are overheated, must facing consolidation.
USA    China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan    S. Korea    Singapore  Malaysia Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe  Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

Daily  global currency simulation , forecasts

Global Financial Crisis, Risks Management  real option credit default risks simulation, control)..

Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial sectors demand, asset prices, bubbles,  investment, supply chain costs, profits, stock prices
 
Series One  : Monetary policy impact on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong housing demand, prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profit strategic management workshops ( select your country )