Chinese (中文)   
Full Day Proactive Structural China Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy,Global  Rate cuts, Bail Out, stimulus plan , Credit, Financial Crisis, REcession impact on  China/  macroeconomics, currency, equities, housing, commodites, Banking, Finance, Energy, Construction Materials Prices bubbles, REIT Fund performance simulations and markets rIsks, mortgage crisis , Recession Risks early warning workshops  (Condensed full day program  from 5 day full program)
(
presented to China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, structured finance, fund, wealth management, oil market investment risk management confernces since 1999)
 
Integrating Fundamentals , Technical Analysis into Proactive Structural Quantitative Simulation Models ( replacing current statitical, probabilitic model) predicted years, month ahead of the emerging market trend of global developed, emerging economy, housing, commodities, equities, bond asset prices bubbles  boom and bust cycles and real time market price tracking, Interest rate, inflation, currency , oil, financial, housing mortgage default, IT sectors, component stocks ,  ETF  maximize fund risk adjusted return, prices simulation, asset allocation , Equities ,asset bubbles burst  crisis systemic risks early warning strategy , avoided trillion dollar market loss.  
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20 years China/US/ Asian housing prices bubbles bursts, Mortgage Defaults Crisis,  Macro-economic inflation, housing industry control credit tightening, stock market wealth resulted excessive liquidity , unemplyment targeting, monetary , interest  rate  policy Impact on mortgage rate,  national, regional housing sales, pricing, Equities Prices Bubbles,Commercial, Residential Mortgage Loan Credit Rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging 
             
         
                    Hong Kong,  Beijin, Shanghai, Taipei   in-house workshops
                    by reservation  at your convenient time at yuor office wh3928@yahoo.com                          
                conducted  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Investment OSA

   Preparing for Macroeconomic control,  rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default    Crisis Early Warning  

Select your country, we will provide full day  monetary, housing industry price control policy impact on macro economic control, inflation, interest rates, currency, commodities, banking, finance, energy, national, regional commercial, residential housing prices,  and stocks market REIT fund   performances ,  bubbles, CMBS, RMBS, CDO, indexing, ETF  assets pricing, allocation strategy, credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis, risk hedging.
Dr. Warren Huang will be the master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day condensed program
, integrating market fundamentals, technical analysis into proactive quantitative models, for strategic  structural  BRIC, GXC, 1xx/xx ETF long-short  fund asset pricing and allocation strategy in 2008
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural artificial intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, banking, housing,  industrial  assets pricing econometrics  integration, simulation  and extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH  dynamic times series estimation co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US//China/Asian housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary  interest rate removing excessive liquidity, emerging bear/bull trend of  stock market  impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global  housing, equities , currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major cities, counties housing, demand prices , associated   default, recovery modeling, ABS,  CMBS,  RMBS, CDO , REIT mortgage  bond spread, China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and global stock  Indexing simulation forecasts,, ETF, hedging fund strategy.

             Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss

for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy
   
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang

 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
 
                 by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management     
Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                           
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008

                                  
Reservation  
for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Global central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment banking , hedging fund managers,  markets analysts ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept. 2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization  conference,  Singapore,  Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market  conferences  and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University, Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles  and  workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004,  and Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference, June 2007 Peking University Financial Risk Management conference lecture, www.osawh.com  and on Wall Street Journal energy, real time economy and market beat blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned  underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive oil , commodities, metals  housing  prices bubbles to 23 year high ( oil at 100) , widening bond spread,  suffered trillion dollar loss in bond and stock, housing  prices slump continue into summer   facing credit crunch  and loan default, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure  2004-2007. www.osawh.com/ABS.html
and China 's soaring inflation,  excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening ( despite 5 times rate hikes, raised bank deposit ratio to 14.5 % fail to remove the excessive housing wealth (up 500 %) , stock wealth gain up 600 % liquidity, money supply growth soared to 18.46 % above 16 % target, Nov. inflation up 6.9 %, However strict housing industry shown some progress, with stock index plunged 20 % into bear market correction in Dec.2007, lead to Shenzhen-Goungzhou  housing bubbles facing burst, plunged 10- 47 %, will continue into 2008.  
Workshops Goal
:  OSA  forecasts  maximize  risks adjusted housing market investment return in US/China housing markets and  stock indices, index fund, ETF investments pricing, asset allocation , housing, mortgage default risks early warning fighting  housing market recession, credit crunch, avoided global banking , housing, equities, commodities,  markets  trillion dollars asset downgrade, value loss in economic recession. 
Workshops Mission: develop, implement proactive, structural models,   simulation, forecasts years, months ahead of the emerging housing prices bubbles burst, bear/bull market trend by tracking  global central banks monetary and housing industry price control policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing, stocks markets economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets, credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  strategic investment,   forecasts month ahead, of the emerging national, regional, second tier housing prices slump, credit default, recession  trend, crisis impact on global currency, commodities, stock indices, ETF, REIT, MBS, equities, bond prices  investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar housing and global equities allocation investment  and markets default  loss.

Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis, tracking regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning

 
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day India, Hong Kong, Taiwan other countries Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning

5 Day China 4 trillion Economic stimulus and 10 trillion banking loan increase impact on 2009  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning

Day One: China  economic stimulus , stocks, housing bubble formation and burst risks, Macroeconomic control, Country Risks, boom and bust cycle OSA, Forecasts
morning:
Monetary Policy Trilemma:  Macroeconomic growth overheating, asset prices bubble , inflation control
and RMB currency appreciation OSA
 
 * Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations of  China Peoples Bank macroeconomic control ( 5 rate hikes, raise bank deposit ratio 7 time ) removing excessive liquidity due to stocks, housing  bubble wealth  gain tracking money supply, interest rate, RMB and housing industry control  impact on housing, stock prices bubbles, fixed investment, inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
 * Monetary policy, commodities, oil prices, RMB , fixed investment impact on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency appreciation and DFI inflow, excessive liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB,  and  Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble, mortgage default
and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession

Day two: Housing Industry  Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst, mortgage loan, CRE, RMBS,  default OSA
Morning:
China 2009 monetary policy  and credit tightening on second  mortgage impact on housing demand and prices
*China Peoples Bank Monetary Policy macroeconomic control ( raise rate 5 time, bank deposit ratio 7 times)
impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and cool off the overheated economy and inflation
* China housing industry price control policy and impact on China regional housing supply, demand and prices.
Afternoon:
China housing bubble burst, loan default , stock market crash, economic recession early warning
* China RMB appreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble, fixed investment impact on
 China coastal area ( Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing )housing sales, and prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural China housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS,  loan credit rating, securitization asset performance, prepayment, sub-prime and high end  mortgage loan default  and induced stock market crash and economic recession early warning  OSA 
Dr. Warren Huang will be the master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day China/global ETF fund , housing REIT asset pricing, asset allocation risks early warning
He will be glad to share with  thousand proactive structural models which predicted to Euroevent China Finance, Capital market conference, Shanghai Nov. 2003 that China and US facing housing price bubble, credit tightening through 2007 and warned China top  QFII/QDII executives June , 2007, Peking university on China stocks, housing bubble burst and US mortgage default and last 20 years causes, onset, spread, recovering , early warning  China/global financial crisis, asset prices bubble bursts
He was invited to speak to China Peoples Bank, US Fed, ECB, Taiwan, Asian central bank governors risk management conferences to speak on Proactive Structural simulation of China macro-economic control, credit tightening impact on regional housing prices,  and securitization loan defaults risks.

Morning

A. Review, forecast of the global recession impact on China export decline,  latest macro economic control credit tightening , expansion, rate cuts, 568 economic stimulus and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan maintaining 8 % GDP and its impact on China economy inflation, defaltion, consumer, business demand, and  stocks (indices) and national, regional housing prices, banking sectors performance, default risks.
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession and China stimulus plan impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss, earning, stock price

B. Strategic China equities, housing , currency speculation  wealth gain resulted excessive liquidity and capital flow
a. China RMB price mechanism, forecast, China SWF investment strategy
b. US, global macro-economical, finance, housing, banking, commodities industrial asset pricing and  asset allocation: , Housing price slump impact on US recession and industrial sectors, financial markets performance 
C.QFII/QDII , institutional and HNW investors in China residential, commercial housing prices and CMBS, RMBS, CDO , REIT fund  ETF, performance and  allocation strategy

Afternoon

a. China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, A indices and component banking, finance, housing sectors, index pricing simulation, forecast China credit tightening and US mortgage crisis impact on China inflation , housing prices, wealth effect ,excess liquidity impact on stock indices index pricing
b. China Peoples Bank and Hong Kong Monetary authority monetary policy, Shanghai stock index and Hong Kong Hang Sang blue chip, red chip, H shares stock index and prices forecasts and its impact on Shenzhen, Beijin, Shangahi, second tier cities commercial, residential properties prices
c. China  real estate mortgage financing, REIT fund listed on Hong Kong, US stock markets performance, default risks simulation, forecast
d. US mortgage crisis sectors performance, impact on China asset prices and allocation strategy.
 
Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, residential, commercial real estate mortgage, ETF, mutual fund, REIT hedge fund , wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, REIT securitization managers, insurance managers, mutual fund,   managers, government regulation 

Workshop Costs/ Benefits  lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst  
Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com 

Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 27, 2007 Housing price bubble burst cycle                                                
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles .and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth. My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range. takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm