Chinese (中文)
Full Day Proactive Structural China/US/Asian macroeconomics,
currency, equities, housing, commodites, Banking, Finance, Energy, Construction
Materials Prices bubbles, REIT Fund performance simulations and markets rIsks, mortgage
crisis , Recession Risks early warning workshops (Condensed full day program from 5
day full program)
(
presented to
China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, structured finance, fund, wealth management,
oil market investment risk management confernces since 1999)
Integrating Fundamentals , Technical Analysis into
Proactive Structural Quantitative Simulation Models
( replacing current statitical, probabilitic model) predicted years, month
ahead of the emerging market trend of global developed, emerging economy,
housing, commodities, equities, bond asset prices bubbles boom and bust
cycles and real time market price tracking, Interest rate, inflation,
currency , oil, financial, housing mortgage default, IT sectors, component stocks , ETF
maximize fund risk adjusted return, prices
simulation, asset allocation , Equities ,asset bubbles burst crisis systemic risks
early warning strategy , avoided trillion dollar market loss.
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation
of last 20 years China/US/ Asian housing prices bubbles bursts,
Mortgage Defaults Crisis, Macro-economic inflation, housing
industry control credit tightening, stock market wealth resulted excessive
liquidity , unemplyment targeting, monetary , interest rate
policy Impact on mortgage rate, national, regional housing sales, pricing,
Equities Prices Bubbles,Commercial, Residential Mortgage
Loan Credit Rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread in Assets Securitization,
Risks Hedging
Hong Kong, Beijin, Shanghai, Taipei in-house workshops
by reservation at your convenient time at yuor office
wh3928@yahoo.com
conducted by
Dr.
Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Investment OSA
Preparing for Macroeconomic control, rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default Crisis Early Warning
Select your country, we will provide
full day monetary, housing industry price control policy impact on macro economic control, inflation,
interest rates, currency, commodities, banking, finance, energy, national,
regional commercial, residential housing prices, and stocks market REIT
fund performances , bubbles, CMBS, RMBS, CDO, indexing, ETF assets pricing, allocation strategy,
credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis, risk hedging.
Dr. Warren Huang will be the master
class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai
Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day condensed program
, integrating market fundamentals,
technical analysis into
proactive quantitative models, for strategic
structural BRIC, GXC, 1xx/xx ETF long-short fund asset pricing and allocation
strategy in 2008
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural artificial
intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, banking, housing, industrial
assets pricing econometrics integration, simulation and
extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH dynamic times series estimation
co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US//China/Asian
housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes,
onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary interest rate
removing excessive liquidity, emerging bear/bull trend of stock market impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global
housing, equities
, currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major
cities, counties housing, demand prices ,
associated default,
recovery modeling, ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO , REIT mortgage bond spread,
China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and global stock
Indexing simulation forecasts,, ETF, hedging fund strategy.
Global
central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment
banking , hedging fund managers, markets analysts
ignoring Dr. Warren Huang
warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept.
2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events
Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market
conferences and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University,
Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on
Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic
outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles
and workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004, and
Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference,
June 2007 Peking University
Financial Risk Management conference lecture,
www.osawh.com
and on Wall Street Journal energy, real time economy and market beat
blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned
underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive
rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive
oil , commodities, metals housing prices bubbles to 23 year high (
oil at 100) , widening bond spread, suffered trillion dollar loss in bond
and stock, housing prices slump continue into summer facing credit crunch and loan default, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure 2004-2007.
www.osawh.com/ABS.html
and China 's soaring inflation, excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening
( despite 5 times rate hikes, raised bank deposit ratio to 14.5 % fail to remove
the excessive housing wealth (up 500 %) , stock wealth gain up 600 % liquidity,
money supply growth soared to 18.46 % above 16 % target, Nov. inflation up 6.9 %,
However strict housing industry shown some progress, with stock index plunged 20
% into bear market correction in Dec.2007, lead to Shenzhen-Goungzhou
housing bubbles facing burst, plunged 10- 47 %, will continue into 2008.
Workshops Goal : OSA forecasts
maximize risks adjusted housing market investment return in US/China housing markets and stock
indices, index fund, ETF investments pricing, asset allocation ,
housing, mortgage default
risks early warning fighting housing market recession, credit
crunch, avoided global banking , housing, equities, commodities, markets
trillion dollars asset downgrade, value loss
in economic recession.
Workshops Mission: develop, implement proactive, structural models,
simulation, forecasts years, months ahead of the emerging housing prices bubbles
burst, bear/bull market trend by tracking global central banks
monetary and housing industry price control policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing,
stocks
markets economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets,
credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery modeling Operations
Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic investment, forecasts
month ahead, of the emerging national, regional, second tier housing prices
slump, credit default, recession trend,
crisis impact on global currency, commodities, stock indices, ETF, REIT,
MBS, equities, bond prices
investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar
housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default
loss.
Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and
timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing,
commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis,
tracking regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and
REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations,
with 2008 forecast.
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
Dr. Warren Huang will be the master
class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai
Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day China/global ETF fund
, housing REIT asset pricing, asset allocation risks early warning
He will be glad to
share with thousand proactive structural models which predicted to
Euroevent China Finance, Capital market conference, Shanghai Nov. 2003 that
China and US facing housing price bubble, credit tightening through 2007 and
warned China top QFII/QDII executives June , 2007, Peking university on
China stocks, housing bubble burst and US mortgage default
and last 20 years causes, onset, spread, recovering , early warning
China/global financial crisis, asset prices bubble bursts
He was invited to speak to China Peoples Bank, US Fed, ECB, Taiwan, Asian central
bank governors risk management conferences
to speak on Proactive Structural simulation of China macro-economic control,
credit tightening impact on regional housing prices, and securitization loan defaults
risks.
Morning
A. Review, forecast of the latest macro economic, control credit tightening and
its impact on China
stocks (indices) and national, regional housing prices, banking sectors
performance, default risks.
B. Strategic China equities, housing , currency speculation wealth gain resulted
excessive liquidity and capital flow
a. China RMB price mechanism, forecast, China SWF investment strategy
b. US, global macro-economical, finance, housing, banking, commodities industrial
asset pricing and
asset allocation: , Housing price slump impact on US recession and industrial
sectors, financial markets performance
C.QFII/QDII , institutional and HNW investors in China residential, commercial
housing prices and CMBS, RMBS, CDO , REIT fund ETF, performance and allocation strategy
Afternoon
a. China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, A indices and component banking, finance,
housing sectors, index pricing simulation, forecast China credit tightening and
US mortgage crisis impact on China inflation , housing prices, wealth effect
,excess liquidity impact on stock indices index pricing
b. China Peoples Bank and Hong Kong Monetary authority monetary policy, Shanghai
stock index and Hong Kong Hang Sang blue chip, red chip, H shares stock index
and prices forecasts and its impact on Shenzhen, Beijin, Shangahi, second tier
cities commercial, residential properties prices
c. China real estate mortgage financing, REIT fund listed on Hong Kong, US
stock markets performance, default risks simulation,
forecast
d. US mortgage crisis sectors performance, impact on China asset prices and allocation
strategy.
Who Should Attend : Central
banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, residential, commercial real estate mortgage, ETF,
mutual fund, REIT hedge fund
, wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO,
REIT securitization
managers, insurance managers, mutual fund, managers, government
regulation
Workshop Costs/ Benefits :USD 3000 per day plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air
fares from San Francisco for full day workshop with unlimited attendees
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong
direction of investment and default
risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset
prices bubbles burst
Reserve by email wh3928@yahoo.com
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles .and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth. My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range. takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm