China's overheated stocks, housing twin bubble facing boom and bust, what is next? find out the what, why , how and timing of bubble burst

by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang  wh3928@yahoo.com

China Peoples Bank Monetary Policy Trilemma Solution: Proactive Structural Integrated Macro, Industrial Economic Control, Asset Bubbles and RMB    Optimal  policy trilemma strategic solution workshop    

Thousands proactive, structural dynamic Operations Simulations Analysis Identification years, month ahead of  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global energy, financial, currency, housing, stock market  prices bubbles burst, economic boom and bust , recession cycles   
Last 30 years global financial , currency, oil, energy, equities, housing prices bubble boom and bust cycles, financial crisis simulation indicating that high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth, free float/peg  currency ( QDII/QFII money manager speculation 10 year or 80 years bull market are impossible) are not, should and can not  be sustainable  free float RMB will lead to China/US asset bubble burst, economic recession, financial crisis, trillion dollar nonperformance loan,  , can not last more than 5 years and it is  inflationary, will  repeating eventual Japanese, Asian financial crisis, stock market crash and housing bubbles burst in 5 years(, with up to 10 year long recession with or without central bank macro-economical control,  even inflation stay below 3 %. Only these integrated proactive structural economic systems can achieve GDP, capital markets growth, currency, asset price  stability
 
Goal ::
Proactive monetary policy for sustainable growth and inflation, exchange rates,  financial market , housing market prices stability without asset price bubbles burst.

Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predicting stocks, housing bubbles  year, month  ahead by proactive structural strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) for 40 countries tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 25 years global  financial, currency, energy, crisis, recession, stocks, housing, properties price bubble burst resulted recession cycle  feed-forward control to prevention overshooting, delay action , uneven economic development resulted asset bubbles overheating recession and trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan. implement, recommend on your current policy impact on growth and prices stability OSA  

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Predictive Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own policy impact OSA, tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors conferences 1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives, academics researchers

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Why we have uneven economic development in regional, industries, How to use industrial finance simulation to avoid it
Macro economics :GDP, inflation, consumer, business spending, unemployment
Financial Economics/ financial market prices: interest rates, currency, stock indices
Industrial asset demand /prices:  Housing, oil/ commodity prices, 20 industrial sector demand, products prices, bubble early warning.
Trade Economics: export/import/trade surplus/deficit, currency, competitive pricing market shares.
Optimal monetary policy control  for sustainable growth and capital markets, currency prices stability
 Proactive structural  macro economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China contractionary/ expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation targeting, control tracking. predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag US dollar and stock market for correction,
Recent Dow Jones plunged 400 points as Yen plunged fro 123 to 118 and sub prime worry, oil price soared to 77
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,   integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency into capital market asset prices bubbles ( global stock indices) OSA simulation charts 
1.Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM) Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
 Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
 Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
 EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
 Hong Kong money supply growth,  inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on  Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops 
Who should attend: central banks chairman, regional governors, macro/financial/ industrial/trade economic research, executives and banking, securities, insurance regulation executives, banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, investment bankers, money managers, economic policy planner, SOE, medium enterprises CEO, CFO, board members, auditing committee. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/  osawhh@sina.com  one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office

The need for improved Monetary Policy impact  and Financial Markets  prices simulation and credit default  risks simulation Decisions Consumer price index inflation under estimate the damages from soaring stocks and properties , asset prices bubble and labor cost due to excessive rate, tax cuts and excessive money supply resulted  housing and auto industry bubbles( despite consumer inflation rate was falling to 2 %  for Japan 1990 and US 2001 bubble bursts led both central banks raise the money supply growth and cut interest rates led asset bubble burst, led to export decline and nonperformance loan due to poor financial market risk management decision making. These unreliable equilibrium approach probabilistic VAR model based normal stable continuous data, speculation caused billion dollars loses by LTCM, global credit crunch
Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks  Monetary Policy Impact on  daily money, currency, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets prices including the causes, onset, spread, recovery of  Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM  hedging fund failure and current US asset prices bubble impact on the new economy growth and financial systems stability
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, TV, radio lectures for? 30? million China, Taiwan, ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investors, daily growth,? price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate reform, reengineering,? default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, global portfolio risks management, supply chain cost reduction   on the job training , decision support for internet e-commerce, e-business  applications

Global Financial Crisis, Risks Management  real option credit default risks simulation, control)..
Simulation of Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economic Growth,  Housing, Equities Price Bubbles Stability   policy workshop
By OSA　Pioneer Dr. Warren Huang    wh3928@yahoo.com

Dr. Huang  spoke on China macroeconomic control impact on asset prices  at   Euro-events  Shanghai’s China Finance and Capital Markets Conference Nov.  2003  and China Economist Conference Fudan University Shanghai warned to hundreds QFII/QDII  executives, economists and 2005 in Beijing Asian Business Forum to hundreds global multinational, QFII CEO, executives on China Oil markets conferences that US Fed mislead China and global central banks underestimated and ignoring housing, equities and oil, commodities prices bubbles impact on CPI inflation ( using core inflation exclude energy, food prices), excessive rate, tax cuts resulted housing, equities markets wealth, prices bubbles  created excess liquidities in economic overheating  will push oil,  metals prices to new high are not and  should  not be sustainable and is dangerous, will leads to eventual asset bubbles burst repeating 1990 Japan ( Nikkei index soared 400 % from 9000 to 38000 in 3 years and crash 75 % to 7600) and 1997 Asian financial crisis., 2000 US IT asset bubbles burst, Nasdaq index  all triple and  crash 70 %  with inflation rate stay at 3 %.  He predicted that China, US central banks will have to raise interest rates starting summer 2004 ( inflation up 5 %) through 2007 to control, and deflate the housing, equities asset prices bubbles.
After 300  % prices gain since 2003  in US  coastal area, due to Greenspan doing too little too late in rate hikes resulted  housing price inflated bubble burst  in  2006 with housing sales slump in overheated coastal area , but  some cities still up 10 %.
Excess liquidities, and hot money continue pouring into equities and housing markets, speculation on RMB  , wealth from  400 % gain in China A shares and housing markets,   despite China Peoples Bank raised interest rate twice, and bank deposit reserve ratio 5 times and state council  heavy housing markets measures  credit tightening, pricing control,　China coastal area housing prices soared almost 400 % since 2002, Beijin, Shenzhen still up 10 % , nationwide housing prices up 6 % this year. A share index up 145 after China Peoples Bank rate hike and cut saving tax rate from 20 % to 5 %  
 
China Current State Review
China National Bureau of Statistics  announced  GDP growth of 11.9%  in 2Q and 11.5%  in half.  June  CPI inflation soared to 4.4% due to  11 % rise in food prices , due to housing ( soared , equities prices ( soared 40 %)  bubbles resulted  excessive money supply.
fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth at 23% in June Consumption continues to   real retail sales up by 12.9%  Exports  up 27%  June expanding trade surpluses.  the growth of exports to the US  peaking out,  while widening with EU — due to US dollar depreciation. China’s FX reserves  reached US$1.33 trillion by June heavy hot money capital inflow due to booming equities, housing markets and 6 % RMB appreciation.
Despite China PBoc two rate hikes and raised bank  reserves ratio 5 times  and open market operation removing excessive trillion dollar liquidity to cool equities and housing market speculation.  China A shares continue making new high this year, while coastal cities housing prices enjoy double digits growth,

Proactive Structural Inflation Targeting macroeconomic control Simulation Forecast
CPI inflation is related to money supply growth, oil, commodities prices, RMB currency
current M2 money supply growth target at 16 % is still inflationary, which lead to overheated GDP growth above 11 %,it need further credit tightening in macro economic and housing and construction industries control to cut money supply growth to 12 % to achieve 9 % GDP soft-landing  
Do not expect to use RMB appreciation to cut CPI inflation, EURO area only cut inflation by 2 % by 20 % currency appreciation, Japan Yen appreciated 60 % lead to hot money inflow pushed Nikkei
up 500 %, China RMB 6 % appreciation resulted hot money speculation are responsible for equities, housing price bubbles in  2007  which drive up oil, commodities prices and CPI

Proactive Structural RMB currency  market prices mechanism simulation forecast

Dr. Huang trained 100 senior graduate students, pioneered two master hands ( interest rate spread and trade balance controlling global  100 countries currency prices.
China huge trade balance and currency reserve against US are responsible for RMB appreciation, drag China People Bank rate hikes credit tightening  capability to maintain interest rate spread to   reduce pressure on RMB  ( China only raise  0.27 % 3 time while US raised 17 times)
It is better  and more effective for China Peoples Bank to raise bank reserve ratio (
already 5 times at 0.5 % each)
China should use more administrative strategic trade and investment, procurement
to cut trade balances with its bilateral partners to maintain RMB appreciation within 5 %, excessive appreciation will do more harm only cut limited import cost, stimulate more domestic consumption and induce more hot money speculation in housing, equities prices bubbles created more inflation and cut export growth,  and trade surplus, lead to eventual trade deficit,  currency depreciation, run away inflation as it did in Japan, Asian financial, currency  crisis .

Proactive equities, housing markets prices bubble boom and bust cycle  simulation forecasts
These twin prices bubbles were initiated by excessive  money supply, rate , tax cuts created excessive demand and followed by hot money ( domestic and foreign capital speculation on currency appreciation and wealth gain in equities, housing markets gain,)
trillion dollars wealth gain put any central bank hard to handle by traditional credit tightening
like Greenspan 17 rate hikes, China Peoples Bank 3 rate hikes and raised bank reserve deposit ratio 5 times  fail to cool and deflate the bubbles, it must be supported by administrative measure in housing industry credit tightening policy and stepped up regulation discouraging  hot capital flow speculation,
It will take 3 years continued effort in credit tightening cycle, well into next year to with m2 money supply growth below 12 % to remove excess market liquidity from overheated stock and housing markets achieve GDP below 9 % and deflate stock, housing  prices  twin bubbles, following  US bubble burst.