China's overheated stocks, housing twin
bubble facing boom and bust, what is next? find out the what, why , how and
timing of bubble burst associated debt, credit, financial crisis and early
warning
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
wh3928@yahoo.com
China
Peoples Bank Monetary
, economic, fiscal
Policy Trilemma
Solution: Proactive Structural Integrated Macro Inflation,
GDP, Financial, Housing Bubble Control, and RMB
Optimal
policy trilemma strategic solution workshop
Thousands proactive, structural
dynamic Operations Simulations Analysis Identify years, month
ahead of the causes, onset,
recovery, early warning of last 20 years China/global energy, financial,
currency, debt, housing, stock market prices bubbles burst, economic boom and
bust , recession cycles , risks, opportunities..
Last
30 years global financial , currency, oil, energy, equities, housing
prices bubble boom and bust cycles, financial , debt crisis
simulation indicating that high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth,
free float/peg currency ( QDII/QFII money manager speculation 10 year or 80 years bull market are impossible) are not, should and can not be sustainable , free float RMB will lead to China/US asset bubble burst,
inflationary
recession, debt, financial crisis, trillion dollar nonperformance loan,
any high GDP growth , bull market can not last more than 5 years and it is inflationary, will repeating eventual Japanese, Asian financial crisis,
US, EUROPEAN debt crisis, stock market crash and housing bubbles burst in 5 years(, with
repeating Japan's to 10 year
long recession with or without central bank macro-economical control,
even inflation stay below 3 %.
Only these integrated proactive structural
economic systems can achieve sustainable GDP, capital markets growth, currency, asset price
stability
Recent reference
W1a Warren Huang, Fenglan Zhang “ Proactive, structural
Simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on asset price bubble
burst, financial debt crisis early warning”, to HK economist meeting,
Tianjin Dec. 20, 2010
D1 China housing prices history:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/China/Price-History
D2 US Case Schiller 100 year housing price index
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/case-shiller-100-year-chart-2011-update/
D3:US housing price data history
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Price-History
D4:
Causes of US subprime crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
D5: Causes of China local government debt crisis
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-07/20/content_12943131.htm
Goal ::
Proactive
monetary , 12- 5 economic, fiscal policy for sustainable growth and inflation, exchange rates,
financial market , housing market prices stability without asset price bubbles
burst., debt, financial crisis.
Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predicting stocks, housing bubbles ,
credit defaults, debt year, month ahead
by proactive structural strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) for 40
countries tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread,
recovery , early warning of last 25 years global financial, currency,
energy, debt crisis, recession, stocks, housing, properties price bubble burst
resulted recession cycle feed-forward control to prevention
overshooting, delay action , uneven economic development resulted asset bubbles
overheating recession and trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan default.
implement, recommend on your current policy impact on growth and prices
stability OSA
Operations Management and Performance
Guidance, Predictive Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of
monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented
strategic and execution OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your
own policy impact OSA, tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China,
Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors conferences
1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website
visited by million global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives, academics researchers
Scopes: Monetary, Economic,
Fiscal Policy Impact Simulation on:
Why we have uneven economic development in regional, industries, How to use
industrial finance simulation to avoid it
Macro economics :GDP, inflation, consumer, business spending, unemployment
Financial Economics/
financial market prices: interest rates, currency, stock indices, derivatives.
Industrial asset demand /prices: Housing, oil/ commodity prices, 20
industrial sector demand, products prices, bubble early warning.
Trade Economics: export/import/trade surplus/deficit, currency, competitive
pricing market shares.
Optimal monetary, economic, fiscal policy control for sustainable growth and capital
markets, currency prices
stability, to avoided over
stimulated , over spending resulted government debt.
Proactive structural macro
economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China
contractionary/ expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation targeting, control tracking.
predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag
US dollar and stock market for correction,
Hundred
thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic
proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators
first time shown on this website
the most reliable optimal monetary policy trilemma
solution, integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation ,
currency into capital market , housing asset prices bubbles ( global stock indices) OSA simulation charts
1.Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM)
Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives: Causes, Consequences
of China/Global inflation, asset prices bubble burst, debt, financial crisis
early warning
Money supply, interest rate bank deposit ratio, commodity price, stock, housing
prices impact on China CPI and Dow Jones , domestic monetary, economic
fiscal macro economic control impact on China A share and housing
prices daily prices, local government, debt, credit default crisis
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
Hong Kong money supply growth, inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal,
mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/
memberships/
workshops
Who should attend:
central banks chairman, regional governors, macro/financial/ industrial/trade
economic research, executives and banking, securities, insurance regulation
executives, banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, investment bankers, money managers, economic
policy planner, SOE, medium enterprises CEO, CFO, board members, auditing
committee.
Reservation Form:
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@sina.com one month ahead of your
date
Location:
Your office
The need for improved Monetary Policy impact and Financial Markets prices
simulation and credit default risks simulation Decisions Consumer price index inflation under estimate the damages from soaring stocks and
properties , asset prices bubble and labor cost due to excessive rate, tax cuts
and excessive money supply resulted housing and auto industry bubbles(
despite consumer inflation rate was falling to 2 % for Japan 1990 and US
2001 bubble bursts led both central banks raise the money supply growth and cut
interest rates led asset bubble burst, led to export
decline and nonperformance loan due to poor financial market risk management decision
making. These unreliable equilibrium approach probabilistic VAR model based normal stable
continuous data, speculation caused billion dollars loses by LTCM, global credit crunch
Real Time Dynamic simulation of
Global central banks Monetary Policy Impact on daily money, currency, stocks,
bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets prices including the causes,
onset, spread, recovery of Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM
hedging fund failure and current US asset prices bubble impact on the new
economy growth and financial systems stability
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, TV, radio lectures
for? 30? million China, Taiwan, ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking,
finance, corporate CEO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investors, daily
growth,? price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate
reform, reengineering,? default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, global
portfolio risks management, supply chain cost reduction on the job training ,
decision support for internet e-commerce, e-business applications
Global Financial Crisis, Risks
Management real option credit default risks simulation, control)..
Simulation of Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economic Growth, Housing,
Equities Price
Bubbles Stability
policy workshop
By OSA Pioneer Dr.
Warren Huang
wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Huang
spoke on China macroeconomic control impact on asset prices at
Euro-events
After 300 %
prices gain since 2003 in US coastal area, due to Greenspan doing too little too late in rate hikes resulted
housing price
inflated
bubble burst in 2006 with housing sales slump in overheated
coastal area , but some cities
still up 10 %.
Excess liquidities, and hot money
continue pouring into equities and housing markets, speculation on RMB , wealth from
400 % gain in China A shares and housing markets,
despite China Peoples Bank raised interest rate twice, and bank
deposit reserve ratio 5 times and state council heavy housing markets measures credit tightening, pricing control, China coastal area housing prices soared almost 400 % since 2002, Beijin, Shenzhen still up 10 % , nationwide housing prices
up 6 % this year. A share index up 145 after China Peoples Bank rate hike and
cut saving tax rate from 20 % to 5 %
China Current State Review
China National Bureau of
Statistics
announced
GDP growth of 11.9%
in 2Q and 11.5% in
half.
June
CPI inflation
soared to 4.4%
due to
11 %
rise in food prices
, due to housing ( soared , equities prices ( soared 40 %) bubbles resulted excessive money supply.
fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth
at 23% in June Consumption
continues to
real
retail sales up by 12.9% Exports
up
27% June
expanding
trade surpluses.
the growth of exports to the
Despite China PBoc two rate hikes and raised bank
reserves ratio 5 times
and open market operation removing excessive
trillion dollar
liquidity to
cool
equities
and housing
market speculation.
Proactive Structural Inflation Targeting
macroeconomic control Simulation Forecast
CPI inflation is related to money supply growth, oil, commodities prices, RMB
currency
current M2 money supply growth target at 16 % is still inflationary, which lead
to overheated GDP growth above 11 %,it need further credit tightening in macro
economic and housing and construction industries control to cut money supply
growth to 12 % to achieve 9 % GDP soft-landing
Do not expect to use RMB appreciation to cut CPI inflation, EURO area
only cut inflation by 2 % by 20 % currency appreciation, Japan Yen appreciated
60 % lead to hot money inflow pushed Nikkei
up 500 %, China RMB 6 % appreciation resulted hot money speculation are
responsible for equities, housing price bubbles in 2007 which drive
up oil, commodities prices and CPI
Proactive Structural RMB currency market prices mechanism simulation
forecast
Dr. Huang trained 100 senior graduate students, pioneered two master hands (
interest rate spread and trade balance controlling global 100 countries
currency prices.
China huge trade balance and currency reserve against US are responsible
for RMB appreciation, drag China People Bank rate hikes
It is better and more effective for China Peoples Bank to raise bank
reserve ratio (
already 5 times at 0.5 % each)
China should use more administrative strategic trade and investment, procurement
to cut trade balances with its bilateral partners to maintain RMB appreciation
within 5 %, excessive appreciation will do more harm only cut limited import
cost, stimulate more domestic consumption and induce more hot money speculation
in housing, equities prices bubbles created more inflation and cut export
growth, and trade surplus, lead to eventual trade deficit, currency
depreciation, run away inflation as it did in Japan, Asian financial, currency
crisis .
Proactive equities, housing markets prices bubble boom
and bust cycle simulation forecasts
These twin prices bubbles were initiated by excessive money supply, rate ,
tax cuts
created excessive demand
and followed by hot money ( domestic and foreign capital speculation on currency
appreciation and wealth gain in equities, housing markets gain,)
trillion dollars wealth gain put any central bank hard to handle by traditional
credit tightening
like Greenspan 17 rate hikes, China Peoples Bank 3 rate hikes and raised bank
reserve deposit
ratio 5 times fail
to cool and deflate the bubbles, it must be supported
by administrative measure in housing
industry credit tightening policy and stepped up regulation discouraging
hot capital flow speculation,
It will take 3 years continued effort in credit tightening cycle, well into next
year to with m2 money supply growth below 12 % to remove excess market liquidity
from overheated stock and housing markets achieve
GDP below 9 % and deflate stock, housing prices twin bubbles, following US bubble burst.