Simulation of the Causes, Onset , Spread and Recovery of Global Financial
Currency, Energy , and Asset
Prices Bubble Crisis impact on national and regional economy
Thousands proactive, structural dynamic simulators tracking and forecasted
years, months ahead of all Crisis impact on national , regional impact since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, 1987 stock crash, 1992 European, ,
1995 Mexico, 1994-96 China runaway inflation, soft landing, 1997- 98 Asian, Russia, Brazil currency crisis
and 2000 US high tech bubble burst and current China/US housing,
equities prices bubbles and coastal area overheating have been caused by
excessive money supply in national and regional due to excessive consumer and corporate, government spending
(debt)( use stocks as collateral ), foreign capital inflow leading to skyrocketing properties, stocks, prices and
labor costs, resulted mounting trade and current account deficit, led to currency plunge
by global players currency speculative attacks, shocks in oils, commodities high
tech stock prices and financial markets plunge in trillions dollars stocks loss resulted nonperformance
loan (margin call and collaterate) OTC financial derivatives excessive leverage LTCM
billions dollar loses due to poor monetary policy, financial markets investment,
credit risk decisions
The need for improved Monetary Policy impact and Financial Markets prices
simulation and credit default risks simulation Decisions Consumer price index inflation under estimate the damages from soaring stocks and
properties , asset prices bubble and labor cost due to excessive rate, tax cuts
and excessive money supply resulted housing and auto industry bubbles(
despite consumer inflation rate was falling to 2 % for Japan 1990 and US
2001 bubble bursts led both central banks raise the money supply growth and cut
interest rates led asset bubble burst, led to export
decline and nonperformance loan due to poor financial market risk management decision
making. These unreliable equilibrium approach probabilistic VAR model based normal stable
continuous data, speculation caused billion dollars loses by LTCM, global credit crunch
with over 30 years experiences supporting millions global government, banking, finance, enterprises CEO, CFO, executives daily strategic decision analysis on reform, change management cope with fast changing markets competitions
Government reform, strategic monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact macro economic, financial market prices stability
executives in-house workshopsutyour l by
Dr. Warren
Huang, Pioneer OSA
The leader in Global Strategic Management
Millions global government, banking,
finance, state, medium enterprises, multinationals CEO, CFO,
investment bankers, money managers, supply
chain logistics executives joined global strategic OSA
public and In-House executives workshops since 1984.
These executives bring their
daily problems to the workshops take home strategic solution avoid trillion
dollar market loss, saved billions dollar supply chain costs ready to implement.
He offered thousands daily tracking, analysis lectures during China run away
inflation and Asian financial crisis ( 1994- 98) for 30 million China,
Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program investors, banking, finance
executives. He provide daily global economy, financial market investment, supply
chain strategy on www.osawh.com for millions
US, Asian, European, global government, banking, finance, enterprises executives
visitors tracking daily forecasts since 1998.
He pioneered and develop, implemented thousands information knowledge based
strategic investment, supply chain Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)
dynamic decision simulators since 1984; tracking, forecast 1- 3 month ahead
accurately last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on global
macro economic boom and bust, daily capital market asset prices, provide root
causes, onset, spread, recovery and early warning for global financial, energy,
currency, asset bubble burst, corporate scandals, trillion market loss, NPL loan
and the only reliable , independent decision policy and equities research
tools for global executives decisions. results invited to speak to 24
global central banks governors, financial risk management, corporate governance,
business, government strategy conference and 100 international chemical
engineering, BPR process/ productivity improvement, optimal control
conference in 50 countries.
He conducted teaching, research at National Taiwan, Tsinghwa, University,
Tunghai university trained 1000 industrial economic, global strategic
management, process simulation, control senior, graduate students tracking 100
countries macro/finance/industrial economics and lecturing China Tsinghua,
Peking, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities Hua-zhon Science &
Tech on economic management, Financial engineering, MIS, EMBA/CFA
He received his MS from Polytech Inst. of New York in Chemical Engineering,
Optimal game simulation, control, Ph.D from Univ. of Oklahoma, in Chemical
Engineering, Operations Research,
with Ph.D theses in Nonlinear Adaptive Kalman Filtering, stochastic control,
with application to chemical reactors and macroeconomic control.
He has over 30 years development, implementation of global strategic investment,
supply chain management for US Bechtel, Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum
Stauffer Chemicals, Bailey network control US head quarters corporate finance,
computer sciences department. and extended to Taiwan, China , Asian government,
thousands banking finance, state, medium, small enterprises reform, investment,
production, supply chain logistics change management, 300,000 importer/ exporters
100 countries currency, competitive pricing.
He patented " Improve Process by OSA ", in US Hydrocarbon Processing and
develop, implemented 32 global strategic investment, supply chain systems,
published on advanced control and information management handbook 1991- 2003
circulated to 82 countries and wrote thousands articles on US, Taiwan,
China government, banking, economics, finance, industrials, trade journals,
daily newspapers.
Central banking monetary policy impact
simulation workshops
Goal:
monetary policy for sustainable growth and financial market asset prices
stability ( not just consumer prices inflation)
Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives ( 1- 3 month ahead)
strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) for 40
countries tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread,
recovery , early warning of last 25 years global financial, currency,
energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis feed-forward control to prevention
overshooting, delay action , uneven economic development resulted asset bubbles
overheating and trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your current policy impact on growth and prices
stability OSA
Operations Management and Performance
Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of
monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented
strategic and execution OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your
own policy impact OSA, tracking results have been presnted to 24 US, China,
Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors conferences
1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website
visited by million global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives
Scopes: Monetary, Economic,
Fiscal Policy Impact Simulation on:
Why we have uneven economic development in regional, industries, How to use
industrial finance simulation to avoid it
Macro economics :GDP, inflation, consumer, business spending, unemployment
Financial Economics/
financial market prices: interest rates, currency, stock indices
Industrial asset demand /prices: Housing, oil/ commodity prices, 20
industrial sector products prices.
Trade Economics: export/import/trade surplus/deficit, currency, competitive
pricing market shares.
Optimal monetary policy control for sustainable growth and prices
stability
Who should attend:
central banks chairman, regional governors, macro/financial/industrial/trade
economic research, executives and banking, securities, insurance regulation
executives, banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, investment bankers, money managers, economic
policy planner, SOE, medium enterprises CEO, CFO, board members, auditing
committee.
Reservation Form:
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of your
date
Location:
Your office
Banking, Finance, Corporate
Governance Reform, Scandals Early Warning
Financial Accounting Systems OSA Maximize Perfromance, Transparency
by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:
Strategic Corporate Governance Maximize Corporate Profit and board members,
investors performance and financial accounting transparency.
Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives ( 1- 3 month ahead)
strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on
corporate profit/loss financial statements, board members, investors for
US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries; tracking, forecasts accurately
the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20 years
global financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis
resulted corporate accounting scandals to prevent market analyst, corporate
executives speculation on inflated profits and hiding loss resulted stock price
bubble resulted trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your financial accounting systems
simulation and early warning supporting Sabarnes- Oxley Act audit, compensation
committee, oversight board, government securities, banking, insurance regulation
tracking possible fraud.
Operations Management and Performance
Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of
monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented
strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams in the workshops to
develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits, board
members, investors performance, transparency, tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China,
Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate
governance conferences
1998-2003 and www.osawh.com
website visited by million global central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives
Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal
Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal
policy impact on asset prices, bubble, cost and accounting system profit/loss
simulation , tracking on and off balance sheet entities.
Corporate sales, earning OSA,
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, IPO performance OSA
Structural finance derivatives prices OSA
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution
OSA teams maximize corporate profits, supporting Sarbanes-Oxley Act ,
securities, banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board
members, investors performances, transparency.
Case studies: tracking the root causes, onset, recovery of global corporate
accounting scandals
US Enron, WCOM, TYCO, Global Crossing
China Guanxia, numerous high tech reform ST stocks
Taiwan Fertilizer, China Development Banks, Banks, Construction industries.
Who should attend:
Accounting oversight board, banking, securities corporate CEO, CFO, board,
audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants, investment bankers..
Reservation
Form:
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of
your date
Location:
Your office
Monetary, economic,
fiscal policy impact on industrial sectors demand, asset prices, bubbles,
investment, supply chain costs, profits, stock prices
Series One : Monetary policy impact on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong housing demand, prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profit strategic management workshops ( select your country )
by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:
Strategic Housing investment, supply chain cost reduction maximize operating
profits, investment return and minimize bubble burst resulted trillion dollar
market loss, NPL loan defaults
Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives ( 1- 3 month ahead)
strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on
US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries housing and construction
materials industry , mortgage loan banks corporate profits, stock prices
investment, supply chain logistics cost performance.
Tracking ; forecasts accurately
the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20 years
global housing bubble burst
resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan asset and asset
securitization risks
implement, recommend on your housing, finance,
construction material investment, supply chain logistics cost reduction strategy
Operations Management and Performance
Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of
monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented
strategic and execution housing and construction materials
industry , mortgage loan banks OSA teams
in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize
corporate profits at minimum risks
Tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China,
Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate
governance conferences
1998-2003 and www.osawh.com
thousands lectures to China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio station investors,
hundreds banking, securities, real estate CEO, CFO, executives , wrote thousands
articles on government, economics , banking industrial finance daily newpapers,
journals tracking listed housing, mortgage banks, construction materials
companies investment, supply chain cost, profits, investment strategy,
website visited by million global central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives
Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal
Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal
policy impact on housing and construction
materials industry , mortgage loan banks asset prices, bubble, cost
and profit/loss simulation , investment strategy
housing and construction materials industry ,
mortgage loan demand, prices OSA
Housing construction materials cost /prices, supply chain costs simulation
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, Strategic Asset management, Asset/Mortgage backed
securitization prices risks
Case studies:
The root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of properties NPL asset OSA
US mortgage companies Fannie Mai, Freddie Mac
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong listed housing and
construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution
OSA teams maximize corporate profits, minimize investment, bubble burst risks
early warning and support banking, insurance regulation audit,
compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Who should attend: Housing
and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks
banking, securities, investment bankers corporate CEO, CFO, supply chain
logistics managers , securities, insurance, banking regulation commission,
board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants.
Reservation
Form:
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of
your date
Location:
Your office
These deterministic artificial intelligence neural net expert systems based dynamics
simulation models tracking accurately last 20 years US, European, and Asian, ASEAN, South
America central banks monetary policy impact on economic growth, inflation and daily
stable and crisis under stress activities in financial markets interest rates, currency
exchange rate, commodities, financial derivatives, bond, corporate profit margins, stock
prices. These systems tracking, predicted the root causes, onset, spread of 1992 European
currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation and 1996 soft-landing and how China avoided
the 1997-98 Asian Financial crisis, 1997 ASEAN, 1998 Asian financial crisis, its spread to
Russia, Brazil and the mature markets 70 trillion OTC financial derivatives markets LTCM
failure due to betting on the wrong side of bond spread and current recovery with average
error below 1.5 % correlation above 0.95
Policy impact on sustainable growth, prices stability, financial crisis, risk management:
Senior author Huang US experience for US multinational and Global experience in the
development, implementation of corporate planning, risk management Operation Simulation
Analysis(OSA) during 1965- 1980 and directed hundreds of goal, mission, performance
oriented global strategic management OSA strategic and execution teams, for Taiwan ( 1980
- 1996) and China (1994 - 1998 with Ji) tracking how China peoples banks monetary policy,
financial market supervision, regulation helped China soft landing in 1996, due to 1994
high inflation, currency depreciation, and how China avoided Asian financial crisis during
1997-98. It also applied to US government, financial industry, corporate restructuring,
reengineering achieve billion dollar reduction without staff reduction: on the job
training, TV, radio lectures for 30 millions government , academic, state, private
enterprises, banking, finance industries CEO, CFO, senior executives, fund managers,
traders, investors risk management
presented to central banks governors policy conference, Macao, May 15,1999 Organized by
China People's bank governor Dai
References
1. Strategic China Investment/SCM/CRM logistics maximize WTO profits” to China supply chain, logistics conference, Northern Jiaotung Univ. School of management, Beijin, May 18-20, 2004 www.osawh.com/Chinaerp.html
2 Global/China capital markets asset prices, bubble, financial crisis, corporate governance simulation, risk management” to Pan-Pacific business conference Shanghai Jiaotung Univ.School of Management, Shanghai, May 29-30, 2003 www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html
3 Asian capital markets asset prices, bubble simulation, risk management” presented to Asian Business Forum sponsored ABS securitization conference, Kuala Lumpur Sept 30. 2002, for global central banks, banking, securities, stock exchange investment banking asset allocation,
4 Asian banking, financial crisis, global recession recovery impact on ABS prices, risk management” to Asian Business Forum ABS securitization conference, Kuala Lumpur Sept 30-Oct. 1 2002, for global central banks, banking, securities, stock exchange investment banking 5 Strategic European and Asian hedging fund risk management” presented to Int’l Business Conference, London, July 11-13, 2002
6 Global/China capital markets asset prices, bubble, corporate governance simulation, risk management” to Global corporate governance conference, Peking Guanhua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, May 28-29, 2002 www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html 7 Strategic China oils upstream/downstream ERP/SCM/CRM maximize WTO profits” 2- full day workshop offered to Chinese Petroleum investment, planning managers at Taipei Horward Plaza Hotel, Jan 21-22, 2002 www.osawh.com/Chinaerp.html 8 Strategic China oils upstream/downstream ERP/SCM/CRM maximize WTO profits” full day workshop offered to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, CNOOC, China, Asian oil, gas, Singapore Development bank VP, executives ,Beijing, Nov. 29-30, 2001
9 Strategic cross strait China investment/merger return and risks in post WTO ” lectured to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, CNOOC, China, Asian oil, gas, Singapore Development bank VP, executives at Beijin Kerry Center Hotel, Nov. 29-30, 2001
11 Strategic integrated supply demand chain for oil/chemical industry ”, offered keynote speech to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, BP, Shell, Thailand Petroleum, petrochemicals, Chevron, Texaco, VP, trade managers, IT software VP, Apr 26-27, 2001, Singapore
12. Strategic integrated supply demand chain TQM saves billion dollar SCM cost for oil/chemical industry ”, offered full day workshop to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, BP, Shell, Thailand Petroleum, petrochemicals, Chevron, Texaco, VP, trade managers, Apr 26-27, 2001, 13. Monetary policy impact on Financial , Banking crisis, risk management “ presented to, Academic of Finance , US FED Chicago governors, Mar. 7, 2001 Chicago and 50 aniversary meeting of Midwest Finance meeting , US Fed Cleveland governor, Mar.,2001 Cleveland, Ohio
13 Monetary policy impact on Financial market prices ,e-global currency, e-Investing Strategy and e-Risk management”, presented to Global Finance conference Apr 4-7, 2001, Los Angeles
14.. " Monetary Policy impact on Asian financial crisis, recovery and risk management" presented to 9 th Asian Pacific finance conference, Bangkok, Thailand, July24, 2001 presented to Thailand Prime minister, Asian central bank governors, banking, finance CEO, CFO, academics.
15. " Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery" speak to Thai prime minister, ASEAN, Taiwan central banks governors
7 th Pacific economic and finance conference , Bangkok, Thailand, June 1, 2000, banking, finance CEO, CFO, academics
16. Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial Banking Crisis and Risk management’, Invited by NASD, American Futures Association, George Mason , George Washington Univ sponsored Washington Area Finance research Conference, Apr. 30, 1999
16 “Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Post EURO financial and banking integration performance, strategy” speak to J P Morgan, ECB and University of Rome on Post EURO finance and banking integration strategy conference in Rome Italy, Nov. 24-25, 1998
17 “Asian/Global Financial , Banking Crisis Recovery, pre-warning and Risk management” to China Peoples Bank, Monetary Authority of Macau sponsored Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy for Sustainable Growth in Macau, on May,1999
18 Global, Financial Crisis impact on Pacific stock and financial derivatives markets and risk hedging” to Pacific Basin Finance and Economic Conference in Taipei( speak to Taiwan Futures Association, Minister of Finance, Taiwan Central bank governors, NTU May 28-29, 1999,
19. European Finance conference on June 3, 1999 speak on Global financial crisis impact on EURO capital markets and session chairman for risks in int'l context , invited by Prof. David Walker, Global Capital Markets Research Center Director of Georgetown Univ. to a panel on emerging markets economy and crisis on June in European finance conference in Barcelona, Spain June,1999 .
20 “ Global financial crisis impact on global government and business risk management strategy” presented to .USDA, dept. agricultural government economics research service conference on Business &Government Strategy, Capital Hilton in Washington DC June 30,1999, speak to the joint global financial crisis session and panel discussion on Global financial crisis impact on Government and business global risk management strategy. Dr. Huang together with World Bank, IMF director, Oxford Economics president, S&P DRI, director , US Agricultural economist, Goldman and Sachs.
21 Financial Crisis Impact on US financial markets prices, risk management,”, Midwest Finance conference Mar.1999
22. Global Financial Crisis Impact on Global Currency Multinational Performance Risk Management" Multinational Finance Toronto, July 1999
23. “Global Financial Crisis Impact on financial markets prices, risk management “ Royal Statistical Society, UK, Warwick, UK, July, 14, 1999
24. " Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery" and " How China avoided Asian Crisis, achieving growth and stability" speak to ICCG Global financial crisis conference, Bangkok, Thailand, Oct. 22, 1999, speak to Thai prime minister, central bank governors
24a:”Goal, Mission performance oriented OSA teams education and training” American Inst. Chemical Eng. Dallas, TX, Nov 20, 1999
25.” Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery” to Japan APEC Studies conference Tokyo , Japan, Dec. 15, 1999
26”:Simulation of Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Global Financial Markets prices performance” Speak to EC2 econometrics Forecast conference in Stockholm Dec19,1998 Swedish school of economics.
27”Asian Financial crisis impact on financial derivatives prices simulation and hedging risk management”, speak to QFM 98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives conference, in Sydney, Australia, Dec. 16 , 1998
28” US Gulf Publishing, Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control, Information Systems annual handbook 1991-2003
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html
29 Integrated global refinery, petrochemical strategic management” to INTERPEC CHINA 91, by SINOPEC president, Oct. 1, 1991, Beijin
30 “ Economic Impact on global petrochemicals demand, trades, prices” presented to World Cong. Of Chemical Eng, Tokyo, Oct. 1, 1986
31 OSA applications in Chemical Eng. Education and Training”, presented to Third Chemical Eng. Congress, Tokyo, Sept. 1986
32 “OSA for global petrochemical marketing, sales strategy” Am. Inst. Of Chemical Eng Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC,Oct. 1983
33”. Improve Process by OSA ,” published on Hydrocarbon Processing, May , 1980( one million copies in 78 countires)