homepage   2012-13  US Economy, financial market outlook   Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation  of  Financial market speculation over US Fed Monetary , Economic, Fiscal Policy, QE1, QE2 , QE3, Operation Twist  Operations Simulation Analysis, (OSA)   Tracking   Causes and Consequences of Global  Asset Prices Bubbles Burst . Monetary Policy guidance control for Maximum GDP, Employment  Growth With asset prices and inflation price stability, avoid trillion dollar loss ,Capitalize last 30 years opportunities in Global Financial, Debt Crisis    Impact on GDP, CPI, Housing prices bubbles, Commodities, Metals, Stocks prices, bond yield  interest rates   Inflation/deflation, recession, unemployment Trilemma  Solution  and systemic instability  risks  macro stress test and bank stress test
 Real Time Proactive, Structural Macro, Financial, Industrial, Trade Economic Systems OSA Simulation:    provide the what, why, how and timing months ahead of causes, consequences , onset, recovery, warning of global financial, credit , debt and double dip inflationary recession crisis

Central banks proactive structural monetary, economic, fiscal policy  guidance, control against market speculation  impact on asset prices bubble burst, debt, financial crisis ,prevention guidance, control decision analysis training workshops  

Global /US   stocks speculating QE 3, repeating 2008  market crash ,ignoring  EURO, Asian, recession, and US, China slowdown, fiscal cliff, poor economic, earning outlook, are extremely overpriced, facing immediate correction. capitalize on distressed asset opportunities in market crash 20 %   and value chain profit optimization strategy     
                     reserve  in house recession fighting strategy workshops  wh3928@yahoo.com

EURO debt crisis , Greece , Spain banking crisis, drag EURO into recession in all 2012-2013, despite 700 billion bailout  China continued credit tightening to control housing price bubble, Japan near recession despite  one trillion QE, and US housing sales, down, retail sale stabilize,, job creation down to 111,000, despite jobless rate drop to 7.8 % due to adding part time jobs Fed QE3  inject 40 billion monthly into MBS until  satisfactory at the cost of higher inflation job and boost  housing market recovery and job creation, supporting stable financial market, extension of Operation twist , M2 already  7-- 9 % after QE1, QE2, and twist operation, mortgage rate below 3.50 % Fed fund rate near zero through  2015 will do little to support US GDP above  1.9 % in 2012 , and 2.2 % 2013 due to global slowdown, EURO recession and strong dollar cutting into export growth. Despite China proactive micro tuning,3 cuts in RRR  to 20 %, 25 bp rate cuts, Aug m2 money supply growth at 13.5, % loan growth at 799 billion, global export slowdown, will drag China GDP to 8 % in the first half 2012, and  7.5 % in the second half .US QE3 will delay inflation, housing bubble control. . China slowdown will drag oil price below 80, Gold price consolidate 1650- 1799 copper3.70- 3.87 after Sept  Dow Jones facing correction as  disappointing earning performance and fiscal cliff  drag test 11000- 12000 support, housing price continue stabilize near bottom,
China CPI will be controlled below 3 % for 2012 A share stock prices will follow economy slowdown and falling housing prices, in the second half, with Shanghai A index test 1750- 2000, and rebound at macroeconomic  softlanding,   end of credit tightening , index rebound to 2500 and above by yearend. China will face s  trade deficit, as falling export drag RMB for slight depreciation, will be traded 6.25- 6.38
US dollar peaking out near 1.20- 1.27 EURO, 76- 81 Yen,1.52- 1.57 pound, stock market  extemely overpriced repeating 2008 for correction  too, due to global slowdown resulted poor earning performance Dow Jones, 12000- 13000
S&P 1200- 1475, NASDAQ 2750- 3000

US facing export decline due to EURO recession, global slowdown, strong dollar, expanding  trade, budget deficit, will drag GDP to 1.8 % in 2012, and 2.0 for  2013, dollar peak out trades 1.22- 1.26  EURO, 75- 82  YEN, 8.25- 8.38 RMB, 1.51- 1.57 Pound. stock market follow GDP slowdown for correction Dow  11000-12000-  , SP 1150- 1250-   NASDAQ 2550-2760
 Review of QE1 ( 2008- 2010 )  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html   and QE2 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html    
 QE2 review    first half 2011 GDP, CPI  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Growth-anemic-debt-fight-rb-274254989.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode= 

http://www.financial-planning.com/news/barclays-schroders-janney-montgomery-2673008-1.html
Our Proactive structural macro, financial housing bubble simulation forecast predicted last year that QE2 will only help boost commodity , stock prices by 30 %, CPI triple, and hurt real economy GDP. will not help lift housing market and GDP   to avoid double dip,  GDP only up 0.3 % in 1Q, 1.3% in 2 Q and will plunge below 1 % ,June  ISM plunged from 55 to 50.5 recession level , June consumer spending drop 0.2 % unemployment will be rebound above 9.2 %. Global Exit strategy rate hikes and Housing, debt  bubble burst crisis  lead US economy to slow in the second half 2011, below 1%,  facing double dip risks, follow Euro debt crisis, and China, US, China, Asian slowdown, Dow Jones to test 9900- 11000, SP test 1100- 1200, Nasdaq test 2500- 2600

Proactive structural solution for  Global Central Bankers Role and Unknown, Uncertain future impact on financial crisis, recovery Challenges :   to be presented by Dr. Huang to Hong Kong Economist annual meeting Tiajin, China Dec 19 ,2010 on  Proactive Structural Monetary, economic, fiscal policy QE1/2 , causes and consequences  impact on China macro economic, housing price bubble control and global asset prices, growth and prices stability, credit, financial crisis early warning

Nobel idea and 30 years implementation of  proactive structural economic financial decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in Asset Prices Bubble Impact on Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy   and  Monetary policy quantitative Easing impact simulation:  Macro Economic  Inflation rate, Interest Rate GDP Growth, Prices Stability and Asset , liquidity, debt Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  mechanism   predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)   through  Proactive Strategic Economic Systems Integration Simulation  (PEIS)   for  US Fed Optimal proactive structural  monetary   economic, fiscal policy  tri-lemma (Growth,  Inflation,  asset prices bubble, Recession, unemployment, Mortgage and debt bubble crisis, Financial  Systems Stability Risks Early Warning ,  Regulation, Dollar ) IMF  Surveillance,  and reliable macro stress test and bank stress test OSA  by    strategic solution workshop
US and global central banks ignored assets ( housing, energy, commodity, bond, IT ) prices bubbles, excess liquidity, debt bubble burst impact on inflation , interest rate policy setting  resulted financial crisis and recessions and again have not learn lessons from last 30 year asset prices bubbles impact on debt, liquidity bubble crisis monetary, inflation, interest rate policy due to following 30 year old probability, statistical models based  asset prices theory  (CAPM )   interest rate setting based  on conventional CPI, GDP, unemployment, ignoring asset prices bubble impact on CPI, GDP
We are running out of option this time to avoid the double dip housing , market slump and economic recession as indicated by
failure of QE2 drove interest rate to near zero record low fail to stimulate the economy, the job market and save the housing market, it only drive stock commodity oil,  market prices and inflation with cutting into consumer spending drag economy into recession, Fed used all it bail out money to save the banking finance market , government spend all its stimulus money lead to 14 trillion debt, compare 200 billion debt last time ,we are still facing GDP only  Q1, 0.3 %, Q2 1.3% with ISM manufacturing supply chain index plunge to 50.4 recession and service sector index to 52.2, consumer spending down 0.2 % in June , consumer and investor sentiment all pointing to new low, CISCO and Merck will layoff almost 30,000 even July unemployment rate drop to 9.1 % which is lagging indicators, we will facing much higher unemployment  return to 9.5 % in the month ahead
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/government-t-save-market-time-151809226.html
Dr. Warren Huang comment on Yahoo finance, . March. 1, 2012
ISN plunged from 54.3 to 52.4, durable goods down 3 %, in Feb housing prices continue down trend as I predicted on this blog last month,, indicating the seasonal demand inventory built up from Oct to Jan pushed ISN to 54.4 will be over, consumer demand will drag maufacturing activities downward, ISN will retest 50, GDP will be back to 1.5 %
We will see jobless rate rebound again soon
The soaring oil prices and strong dollar will make the situation worse.
Stock prices at current discount all future negative factors, will certainly make correction.

Gold price peaking out in summer 2011 around 1550- 1690  , supported by Euro, US debt crisis.  However US Fed QE2 step up up buying 100- 500 billion treasury securities, MBS to drag interest rate lower to stimulate the inflation and economy   help little to boost the economy, and housing prices support due to record unemployment, poor consumer and business confidence,  deflationary pressure remain, sluggish  real demand and  gold price return to 1500-1600  oil price plunged to 75- 85 and, short term dollar facing downward pressure supported by  Euro  debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing price and commodities, asset prices  bubbles, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit  to slowdown  GDP to below 1.05 % in second half        
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US Debt crisis, spending cuts and China credit tightening fighting inflation and housing bubbleAsian exit strategy  lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow double dip recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to future  inflationary recession  pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, US debt crisis related spending cuts, drag global demand further   1.35-1.45  EURO, 1.45-1.67 pound,, 70- 80 Yen    push gold to 1550- 1680, oil from 76- 99, are  given US 1.4 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound winter 2011 
2011 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas  winter prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 15 % in 2011 and spending cuts in second half 2011 , US GDP plunge to 1 % in second half 2011 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2011 summer
 Oil price will be peaking out around 100 - 110 in summer 2011,  and drag to 80- 100 in second half 2011 
Gasoline price will be traded 240- 315  in second half 2011
heating oil price will be traded 250- 335  in second half 2011
 Natural   price will be  traded 4- 6.5  in second half 2011 
Gold price will be   traded  1500- 1680  in second half 2011
US dollar firm due  to continued debt crisis in PIIGS and UK US dollar and US debt crisis, economic slowdown due spending cuts  will be traded 1.35- 1.45 Euro, 1.55- 1.65 pound ,70-80  Yen in second half 2011   
Review of QE1 ( 2008- 2010 )  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html
and QE2 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html    QE2 review   1Q 11 US GDP
http://www.financial-planning.com/news/barclays-schroders-janney-montgomery-2673008-1.html

We are repeating 2007 this summer, as tax cuts, QE2 and prolonged Libya turmoil,  summer gasoline holiday demand May- July, will push oil prices to 120 and commodity to record, ( despite recent oil price plunged  from 114 to  to 97, it will recover all its loss rebound to 114- 120 , commodity price  will follow oil price rebound in early summer, and facing bubble burst responding to phasing out of QE2 coupled with double dip housing and economic inflationary slowdown , GDP will be slowdown to 2.5 % in 2011  

Proactive structural solution for  Global Central Bankers Role and Challenges:   QE1/ QE2 impact simulation Proactive structural solution for  Global Central Bankers Role and Policy in Fighting  Unknown, Uncertain future impact on financial crisis, recovery Challenges :   to be presented by Dr. Huang to Hong Kong Economist annual meeting Tiajin, China Dec 19 ,2010 on  Proactive Structural Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on China macro economic, housing price bubble control and global asset prices, growth and prices stability, credit, financial crisis early warning

   Nobel idea and 30 years implementation of Combined Top Down and Bottom up analysis  proactive structural macro, financial , industrial  trade decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in Global Monetary, Economic stimulus,, Fiscal Bailout Policy    in  Macro Economic Growth, Excessive Liquidity impact on  Prices Stability and Asset  (housing , equities, bond, commodities, oil, energy , gold, metal, derivatives markets )assets prices bubbles burst simulation Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  Bubbles mechanism  , provide the what , why, how and timing month ahead of  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) and impact on assets  prices

 
Despite US Fed 600 billion procurement Treasury plan to drive down interest rate 0.25- 0.5 % to spur up business, consumer housing demand,  let dollar depreciate to drive up commodity, stock prices to generate inflation to 2 %, due to EURO debt crisis in EURO area, due to crisis aversion  ,will support dollar to 1.25- 1.42 EURO, 1.45-1.59 pound , but US slow down in the second half, and 2011 with GDP drop to 1 % , record government , personal, business, consumer debt,  9.5 % unemployment  will lead to euro rebound and  rebound in Yen due to Japan recovery   drag gold from 1680 peak to 1550, oil  75- 89 commodity prices  weak US dollar against major currency, compensated by  weakness in US ,EURO debt crisis, spending cuts consumer, business demand, and China Asian rate hike  fighting commodities, housing bubbles, cutting into demand in oil, commodities
 US  Global credit, financial crisis resulted risk aversion, dump high yield currency ( pound， EURO， A  ￥）despite  US facing recession, zero interest rate and declining export, soaring trade  and current account deficit due to strong dollar resulted export decline and bail out, stimulus spending, soaring budget deficit( 1.5 trillion)  switch to low yield  Yen are excessive, while EURO rebound due to  32 billion trade surplus, Japan enjoyed 80 billion trade surplus  vs US 50  billion trade deficit   and 1.8 trillion budget deficit ( already reduced from 57 billion due to  recession  resulted plunge in import 

Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating 2008 April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation July 4 th  demand peak out  driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China, US  economic stimulus package.
 
 Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US Debt crisis spending cuts, weakening business, consumer spending and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee  se , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
2010- 2011  currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US doallar steady in current  narrow range against major currency  despite QE@, only appreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.50- 6.65
Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.4- 6.55, Singapore 1.20- 1.30  Taiwan NT 28.5- 30.5  Won 1055- 1200  Indonesia  8500- 9000  India 43.5- 45   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 28.5- 30

 predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals futures, Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged 50 %-70 % into 2002 recession low , oil price plunged 70 % from 147 to 46，gas from 15 to 6.5, Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ） ,

Nobel idea and 30 years implementation of  proactive structural economic financial decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in Asset Prices Bubble Impact on Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy   and    Macro Economic  Inflation rate, Interest Rate GDP Growth, Prices Stability and Asset , liquidity, debt Price Bubble Control and Financial Market Asset Prices  mechanism   predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)   through  Proactive Strategic Economic Systems Integration Simulation  (PEIS)   for  US Fed Optimal proactive structural  monetary   economic, fiscal policy  tri-lemma (Growth,  Inflation,  asset prices bubble, Recession, unemployment, Mortgage and debt bubble crisis, Financial  Systems Stability Risks Early Warning ,  Regulation, Dollar ) IMF  Surveillance,  and reliable macro stress test and bank stress test OSA  by    strategic solution workshop
US and global central banks ignored assets ( housing, energy, commodity, bond, IT ) prices bubbles, excess liquidity, debt bubble burst impact on inflation , interest rate policy setting  resulted financial crisis and recessions and again have not learn lessons from last 30 year asset prices bubbles impact on debt, liquidity bubble crisis monetary, inflation, interest rate policy due to following 30 year old probability, statistical models based  asset prices theory  (CAPM )   interest rate setting based  on conventional CPI, GDP, unemployment, ignoring asset prices bubble impact on CPI, GDP

• Warren Huang comment on Wall Street Real Time Economics2:38 pm October 6, 2010 " Buying government securities, rate cuts will not boost economy, but create liquidity, debt, and asset prices bubbles

Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivative  s Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with US facing -3.5 % , Japan -7.5 %, Euro -4 %. UK, -4 %, China 7 %, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, -4 %, Taiwan, Singapore - 7 %drag housing price slump, credit, financial crisis, default despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,   L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
Phase III  post recession recovery :
China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices.
 recession recovery. despite V-shape US and global stock  market  over 50- 100 % rebound  in late summer 2009,  
Asian economic rebound lead by China due to excessive liquidity resulted housing, stock market bubbles, forced China into Macro- housing market price control, credit tightening and Asian central banks rate hikes. EURO debt crisis cut government spend, drag GDP below 1 %, lead to Japan  drag by excessive personal, business, government debt,  and strong Yen facing double recession While US record housing prices  bubble  burst , housing prices plunged over 30 %   unemployment soared to 9.5- 10 % ,mounting personal, business, government debt and plunging confidence continue into 2012, facing trilema of inflation/deflation with CPI  at 1- 3 % and double dip in housing slump and recession ( GDP below 1 % . L shape slow recession recovery drag stock market into double dip correction into 2011
Dr. Warren Huang , pioneered proactive structural Asset Price mechanism, integrating into CPI, interest rate, monetary policy setting avoided under estimate the inflation due to oil, energy , housing, stock prices bubbles impact on CPI

 Optimal Proactive, Structural Dynamic Simulation of  Asset prices bubble impact on US Fed   Monetary interest rate policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and  asset price stability without  Inflation,  Asset Prices bubble, Mortgage Default OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control:
2008 economic recession impact on  capital market asset prices, asset allocation strategy workshop Proactive Recession Strategy
Thousands proactive, structural dynamic Operations Simulations Analysis Identify years, month ahead of  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global energy, financial, currency, housing, stock market  prices bubbles burst, economic recession cycles      中文 (Chinese)
 The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  housing, oil, 20 industrial sectors and downstream demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices bubbles market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability  Daily OSA economy blog  on www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences

• Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker May14, 2010 on US overoptimistic economy and stock market crash and trillion bailout for EURO debt crisis:
• 30 years global financial , liquidity,  credit, debt, currency, Housing, Commodities, Commodity,
  Proactive structural global macro-financial-industrial, trade economic impact integration ,Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Equities, Bond Asset Prices Bubble Burst, Currency asset bubble burst financial crisis simulation indicating that excessive liquidity, trillion dollar bailout to create high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth, free float/peg  currency are not, should and can not  be sustainable and it is  inflationary, will  repeating eventual debt, liquidity  financial crisis, asset bubbles burst with or without central bank macro-economical , housing  policy control,  even inflation stay below 3 %. Only these integrated proactive   structural ECB  EURO area economic systems in achieve GDP, capital markets growth, currency, price crisis/risks  stability
  US , EURO stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010  all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, Euro area debt crisis ( despite one trillion bail out to  support Euro and PIGS  debt crisis will not be able to solve the worst economic, financial crisis in EURO history since WWI, it will ,drag GDP growth to 1 %and recession , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.20 , US Fed to remove more than 1 trillion excessive liquidity from capital market already cut m2 money supply growth from year ago 10 % peak to 1.9%euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half , facing credit tightening, rate hike as summer inflation heat up , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by year end , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related  while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth  double dip to below  1. % by year end . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P stock index forecasts
  ECB central bank governor Trichit warned May 16, 2010 that Euro is facing the worst economic and financial crisis since WWI,  1 trillion bailout  can not solve the PIGS debt problems, It need more effort and structural solution to the debt crisis
  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trichet-economy-in-deepest-apf-220968396.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

  Dr. Warren Huang comment on Yahoo, finance economic forecasts July.  Aug. 12, 2010

  Even the top US economic forecasters is still overoptimistic over US second half economic growth, carried away by the bullish stock ad currency markets.
  My prediction is much realistic by considering US record housing foreclosure, housing market is not out of the wood, record jobless rate at 9.6 % in addition to China credit control over housing bubble GDP slowdown from 11 to 8 % , India, Korea , Australia
  ,rate hikes, EURO debt crisis resulted slowdown resulted US GDP drop below 1.5 % in the second half.  ISM will be down to 53, housing start continue decline, housing sales, industrial production will continue decline.
  details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html  www.osawh.com/dowwp.htm www.oswh.com/econ.htm

  Dow Jones will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , London Financial Times index test 5000 , DAX test 5200 and may test in second financial crisis dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis,  inflation control, US China/Asian slowdown,

These over optimistic retail sales was due to consumer spending gain tax rebate and housing stimulus credit stimulus and stock market rally over 11200 repeating last year same period retail sales. We will see retail sales following consumer spending drop in the month after the tax rebate and stimulus is over in May and getting worse if exit strategy rate hike in exit strategy in the second half details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
China 568 billon stimulus package 14 trillion bank loan  resulted excessive liquidity hot money speculation in stock price ( double, and housing prices breaking 2007 peak ( almost double) and 1 Q GDP 11.9 % resulted economy overheating in housing, auto  sectors, Feb money supply M1, soared to 39 %, M2 to 25 % forced  Peoples Bank raised bank deposit ratio twice in Feb 2010 to 16.5 % to cool off the housing and stock markets, tightening 2010 loan to 7.5 trillion, cut M1 money supply growth to 20 %, M2 growth from 28  to 17 % 2010 and GDP growth from  2010 1 Q 11.7 % to 8 % 4 Q 2010 to curb inflation below 3 % ( already 3.5 % in Aug),  Despite m2 reduced to 18.5% in Aug and tightening raising down payment to 60 % for second  home loan and stop loan for third home and limit one family to buy one home per family, ban investors speculation finally cut home sales by 50 %.  However, excessive liquidity , wealth gain in housing market speculate on RMB appreciation pushed stock market rebound from 2300 to 3000  and housing price continue to soared 12.6 % i Aug. 2010 forced Peoples Bank raise bank deposit ratio by 0.5 % to 17.5 % and raise interest rateby o.25 % in Oct. 2010 will lead to further tightening control, planning property tax  lead to banking, finance, real estate stocks stock will plunge 30- 50  % Shanghai stock index  will give up their recent gain, and further bear market  correction to 2250-2500 is underway in 2010

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
  Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Globa    l Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com
 risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Global central banks play key roles in providing prudent monetary policy to provide sustainable economic growth and asset price stability, healthy financial markets trading operations.
Global financial markets are financing the economic growth, banking industry is directly or indirectly linked to the financial markets operations,
Missing links in global central banks monetary policy decisions: Fail to Predict monetary policy impact on global capital market, equities, housing, commodity, oil ) asset prices, resulted asset bubble burst, financial crisis
Due to lacks of reliable predictive proactive monetary, economic, fiscal, policy, WTO impact on global economics ( macro, financial, industrial, trade )systems, business process and technology simulation, forecasts, and integration,
global central banks monetary policy reactive decisions are based decisions using one to 3 month old economic, business data, fail to predict the plunging dollar, excess rate, tax cuts resulted run away oil, commodity prices and inflation and credit tightening, cool off the inflation ahead  
 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that US regional and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 3o-50 % into 2009 rate cuts, bail out, provide banks, finance excess liquidity will not, can nto stop housing price slump and recession ( with Oct . 2008 20 city Schiller  price index down 19 % http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation ), drag US and  global economy into 1980 style deep double dip recession  stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 -70 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 6000- 7000, NASDAQ test 1100- 1250, S&P test 600-  700 low, oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to 30，Gas oil from 1300 to 500 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ）as Fed agree that global economy  enter deep recession through 2009, despite rate cuts to zero, US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out fail to  to stabilize credit crisis , there is no economic recovery till late 2009,   with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out  and infrastructure job creation program. US spend 8 trillion bailout  fighting crisis , recession  pointed out by Nobel prize winner Krugman  http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2 , hopefully OBAMA/s 775 billion dollar economic stimulus plan to create 4 million jobs in the next two years  will pull economy out of recession and cutting mounting job loss  http://change.gov/agenda/economy_agenda/

US Fed injected trillion dollars into banking, finance and housing market stimulus created excess liquidity and debt bubble  leading to stock market 60 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, and  global stock price bubble appears again ( with China, Russia, Taiwan, China , Hong Kong over 100 % gain, most serious)  China raise bank deposit rate twice  in Feb to 16.5 %, India, Korea Australia, UK already tightening credit, to deflate housing price bubble ( 30- 100 % gain)  speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package.
US  trillion dollars bail out and housing, auto stimulus lead to excessive liquidity bubble, in stock markets  speculation and huge banking, financial sectors profits, bonus( soared 65 %)lead budget 14 trillion deficit  debt bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at 56 are inflationary inflation rate already soared to 3 %. Jan PPI up 1.4 % with energy prices up 14 % and prepare for crisis exit strategy, tightening liquidity( remove trillion dollar excessive liquidity) this summer, as Fed already raise Fed discount rate 0.25 %Feb 18, and will sell trillion dollar asset injected into the banking, finance system to deflate the liquidity bubble before it burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK already facing bubble, lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to 1.36Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 5, 12.37 PM,2009,
China 568 billon stimulus package 14 trillion bank loan  resulted excessive liquidity hot money speculation in stock price ( double, and housing prices breaking 2007 peak ( almost double) and 4 Q GDP 10.7 % resulted economy overheating in housing, auto  sectors, Feb money supply M1, soared to 39 %, M2 to 25 % forced  Peoples Bank raised bank deposit ratio twice in Feb 2010 to 16.5 % to cool off the housing and stock markets, tightening 2010 loan to 8 trillion, to curb inflation below 3 % ( already 2 % )

 Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog  January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Fredie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDPin 4 Q 2008 and 1 Q 2009 ( including inventory) -3.8 % exclude GDP) and 7.2 % unemployment and now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html  http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     US GDP shrink -3.8 % 4 Q 2008    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged rom 12 % to 6.8 % will extend to first half around 6 %, gradually pick up second hald to 8 % 2009

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog- December 10, 2008 at 6:43 pm

These integrated global economics, business process, technology systems simulation , optimal control
Simulation/forecast of the Causes, Onset , Spread and Recovery , Early Warning of Global Financial Currency, Energy Crisis, Asset Bubbles Bursts runaway inflation. achieve growth and prices stability control
Tracking   forecasts global macro, financial, industrial, trade economics systems and it's impact on global banking, finance, corporate business process ( investment, marketing, supply chain, job creation) all Crisis since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, 1987 stock crash, 1992 European, , 1995 Mexico, 1994-96 China runaway inflation, soft landing, 1997- 98 Asian, Russia, Brazil  currency crisis and 2000 US high tech bubble burst and current asset bubble burst have been caused by excessive money supply due to excessive tax, rate cuts resulted wealth effect, consumer and corporate, government spending (debt)( use stocks as  collateral ) leading to skyrocketing properties, stocks, prices and labor costs,  mounting trade and current account deficit, led to currency plunge by global players currency speculative attacks, shocks in oils, commodities high tech stock  prices and financial markets plunge  in  trillions dollars stocks loss resulted nonperformance loan (margin call and collaterate ) OTC financial derivatives excessive leverage LTCM billions dollar loses due to poor monetary policy, financial markets investment,   credit risk decisions
 
Proactive Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global macro economic, business cycles, inflation, asset prices, bubbles  predicted 1- 3 month ahead :achieving growth and prices stability control
Dr. Huang two master hands  accurately predicted one to three months ahead  the causes, onset, of global high tech bubble burst, spread, recovery of  2000- 2003
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and  prices stability predictive  control : OSA global Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation

Bottomup  deterministic, dynamic tracking simulation models of last 1980, 1987, 1990, 1997, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices wealth effect  impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced asset, stocks prices resulted wealth effect on  consumers spending imbalance and rate hike, tight money to curb the inflation impact on consumer spending, business profit slump, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, 2000 high tech bubble burst and current housing bubble all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy,, housing, equities, oil prices impact on inflation, 20 old and new economy  sectors demand, prices corporate earning and global stock prices, housing properties prices  bubble bursts,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on wealth effect  consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties prices, rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
6. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on FDI capital flow , import/export trade economics

William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :Proactive

Inflation rate is closely related to consumer spending, money supply growth, commodity, oil prices, currency exchange rate which is no longer reflect the asset bubble prices overheat and burst in Japan 1990 and US in 2002 warned by Dr. Huang in global central banks governors conference.
GNP is related to monetary policy, consumer spending and export growth 
Property prices and wealth effect are related to monetary policy and stock prices gain 
NAPM ( National Purchaser Managers Index are related to consumer spending, monetary policy policy and stock prices gain
Business, consumer spending are sensitive to monetary policy, capital market asset prices gain, and currency , unemployment
Stock indices = F( consumer spending  growth,, Interest rate,  exchange rate)despite 425 rate cuts,  US Oct consumer spending plunged 2 %, dollar plunge to 93 Yen drag Dow Jones to 8000.
OSA for  current Global economy: Dr. Huang warned on Asian Business Forum Asset Backed Securitization  that US , China , ASEAN, Korea Australia, UK housing, auto overheated facing bubble burst. risks Oct. 2002.and again Nov. 2003
Singapore, Shanghai on Asian, China Capital market conference.
Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
Global economy facing uneven development due to excessive money supply growth (US follow Japan misguided  1990  misguided by the supply side economy, money supply growth equals to GDP and inflation, rates , tax cuts, fiscal stimulus ( both at low inflation rate )resulted overheated housing, auto demand and soaring housing, commodities prices in US, China, Korea, Australia, Canada, UK, Spain, while the rest of the manufacturing still facing deflation pressure, US housing loan plunged to one year low as mortgage rate rebound 1 %Freddie Mac scandal in the housing bubble and China housing, banking, auto stocks plunged   50 % due to China Peoples banks concerned on excessive loan demand (26 % increase ) led to China Peoples Bank raised capital reserve ratio from 6 % to 17.5 %, Shanghai A will be retest 1800-2000 Shenzhen A  5950- 6250, despite US  425 rate cuts Dow retest8000, Nasdaq test 1580
European Economic and  Monetary Integration Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) :
UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe 
Global Economic and Monetary Policy Interaction, integration OSA
Global Economic and Monetary Policy Interaction, integration OSA
USA     Asian   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil   UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe   

Comment by Warren Huang - December 1, 2008 at 1:17 pm

I warned on this blog Sept. 2007 that housing market slump continue spread into credit, financial crisis, aggressive rate cuts, stimulus can not stop recession, in will only create double dip recession. there, our first dip in 4Q 2007, we are now entering second dip recession, due to the stimulus package delay the first one one quarter later. Hopefully , we will not have to face third dip by too much stimulus, bail out before the housing, stock market correction is over. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer  Dr.Warren  Huang
Millions of global /China management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement   

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 By top down two master hands controlling global asset prices  mechanism pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000-  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US  - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1700  rebound to 3450 in  2009 overheated in the first half  due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 28 %, fixed investment from 22 to 35 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 82 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through  first half 2009.
US Fed injected trillion dollars into banking, finance and housing market stimulus  leading to stock market 60 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, and  global stock price bubble appears again ( with China, Russia, Taiwan, China , Hong Kong over 100 % gain, most serious) , followed by housing price bubble ( 30- 100 % gain)  speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package.
China 568 billon stimulus package 14 trillion bank loan  resulted excessive liquidity hot money speculation in stock price ( double, and housing prices breaking 2007 peak ( almost double) and 4 Q GDP 10.7 % resulted economy overheating in housing, auto  sectors, Feb money supply M1, soared to 39 %, M2 to 25 % forced  Peoples Bank raised bank deposit ratio twice in Feb 2010 to 16.5 % to cool off the housing and stock markets, tightening 2010 loan to 8 trillion, to curb inflation below 3 % ( already 2 % )
US  trillion dollars bail out and housing, auto stimulus lead to excessive liquidity bubble, in stock markets  speculation and huge banking, financial sectors profits, bonus( soared 65 %)
lead budget 14 trillion deficit  debt bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at 56 are inflationary inflation rate already soared to 3 %. and prepare for crisis exit strategy, tighting liquidity( remove trillion dollar excessive liquidity) to deflate the liquidity bubble before it burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK already facing bubble, lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to 1.36    
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic blog    July  24,2008 at 7:17 pm
Global investments take advantages of  its global multi-asset class ( equities, bond, housing, commodities, derivatives) investment instrument in asset allocation, different boom and bust cycles, and profiting from excessive asset prices gain wealth resulted excessive liquidity, which made it difficult for central banks to cool off the overheated price bubble , remove excessive liquidity resulted inflation as it took Greenspan 17 rate hikes still fail to deflate the housing bubble and China Peoples Banks 17 raise bank deposit ratio still can not cool off the housing price bubble still up 8.2 %.
Now After Bernanke aggressive rate cuts and 160 billion stimulus package still fail to stop housing price bubble burst resulted price slump
detail s can be found  on my proactive structural simulation tracking central bankd monetary policy impact on housing, equities, commodities price bubble and banking, finance performance www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm  www.osawh.com/creditwba.doc   www.osawh.com/riskm.htm  www.osawh.com/test.html
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal market beat blog  and Yahoo finance July 19, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Government unprecedented and coordinated  steps ( seizure IndyMac, Paulson Fannie, Fredie rescue plan, SEC restriction on naked short) did temporarily stabilized  stock market;, Dow Jones rebounded from 10900 to 11500, NASDAQ from 2167 to 2305 lead by banks stock 30 % rebound( WFC, MER, MS, despite huge loss and writedown and banking stock index market bull attempted to break the bear trend, start bullish again, the financial market turbulence and restore some investors confidence.
But  all these steps can not, did not  remove the root causes of financial crisis, Benanke economic difficulties : housing market slump, soaring job cut s, inflation and financial market strain will be with us until these situation improves.
Financial market price are driving by market economy price mechanism, which fully integrated into macro- financial industrial economy, banking, financial, housing stock price slump are driven by the burst of super housing price bubble continued correction to its affordable level, led to mounting job cuts consumer confidence slump 1980 level, soaring inflation drive up to inflationary recession.
It  will be dangerous to assume that all the crisis will be over by these step repeating April bull run, that is the same situation in G7 intervention on currency never stop the currency crisis which are driven by interest rate spread, and trade balance,  banking financial stock price are driven by two master hands : the macro economic and the housing, industry health.
details on www.osawh.com/riskm.html  www.osawh.com/centmaf.html, www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html www.osawh.com/currency.html Comment by Warren Huang Real Time economic blog July 15, 2008, 210pm
Benanke just realized that economics faced serious difficulties in strained financial markets, mounting job less, housing markets slump and rising inflation, .despite aggressive rate cuts, as I warned on Wall Street Journal Real Time economics and Market beats since last Sept that Fed rates cuts can not stop housing market slump, stock markets bear market correction and widespread credit crisis, Bear Stearn bail out did not indicating the worst of credit is over, it will getting worst as housing slump continue.
I also warned that excessive rate cuts drive dollar lower, economic stimulus pushed consumer spending higher, only postponed the recession to 2009, led to soaring oil,, commodity price and inflation, drive economics into 1980 style double dip inflationary recession. Today  June PPI up 9.2 % approaching 1981 level.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html  www.osawh.com/macro.html  www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic - June 16, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Through my proactive structural monetary  simulation of last 20 years impact on inflation, GDP equities, housing bubble formation, deflation  bubble burst and economic boom, bust indicated aggressive rate hike in 1999 to deflate    NASDAQ AT 2500  DO NOT WAIT TILL 2000 AT 5110 AND CONTINUE 2006 RATE HIKE AT 2006  WHILE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE BURST IS BETTER THAN WAIT TILL 2008. followed by rate cuts in 2008, even at the risk of slight recession is much health than wait for stock price run up for 50 % and housing price up another 100 %,the wealth gain heated the bubble to unmanageable size  and  response panicly by aggressive rate cuts leading to soaring oil, commodity price spike
details on  www.osawh.com//Fedcrisab.htm , www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/centmaf.html  www.osawh.com/commody.html
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic - June 16, 2008 at 2:26 pm

From my 30 years tracking Fed monetary, rate policy, It usually take 3 month waiting period for central bank rate hike after warning. during this period Fed will watch how rate cuts, stimulus package impact on oil, commodities price , and core inflation and how much improve in housing market slump, credit crisis, GDP growth,
Fed will try to postpone to after Nov election, if core inflation stay below 2.9 %
details on  www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/centmaf.html  www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm<
 Comment byWarren Huang, WallStreet Journal Market Beat - June 3, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking of last 30 years global currency price mechanism, currency are very sensitive over central banks statement on direction of interest rates.
Benanke statement on the end of rate cuts, indicating firming interest rates will support US dollar, as I repeatedly stated on this blog.
However, global central banks are more serious on inflation and rate hikes without risks of recession. Bernane still concern about economic recession.
Therefore, dollar fundamental weakness still exist, it will be traded in narrow range, 1.5- 1.65 EURO, 950 108 Yen.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/currency.html
Comment by Warren Huang - June 1,, 2008 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics at 2:06pm
Fed official are getting more realistic about US economic outlook now than earlier this year and recent stock market optimism ahout inflationary and economic rebound, eased credit crisis. I warned last Sept. on this blog that US housing price slump continue into this summer, spread into general credit crisis and Fed rate cuts will not stop housing price slump, but drag dollar lower and oil, commodities price resulted inflationary recession. Current situation is getting closer to my forecast then.Fed and banking finance decision models are oversimplified, too much rely on interest rate, ignoring industrail sectors supply demand, boom and bust cycle
behavior. Details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment by Warren Huang - May 30, 2008 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics at 1:13 pm  
  Rescue Bear Stearn case looks like similar LTCM, But we are facing much more complicated , instability in uncertain back ground of continued housing price slump and complicated highly leveraged structural financial products anad poor rating methods (MBS,CDO) using oversimplified betting on the wrong side of. investment.
The worst of the crisis is not over until housing price slump is over, it is not that easy to stop by rate cuts.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/finstab1.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic- May  22 , 2008 at 2:03 pm

Fed is finally getting more realistic on this years growth and price stability outlook, it indicates reasonable slower GDP of 0.3-1.2 %, rule out secoond half GDP 2.1 % rebund, and indicated soaring oil, commodities prices pushed CPI to 3.4- 3.6 %. Which they fail to recognized stimulus package and weak dollar drive up summer peak oil demand resulted soaring
oil, commodities price speculation resulted inflation. which they are overoptimistic over inflation outlook and stimulus package in economic rebound.
This reflect my warning last Sept and early this year on this blog. 
details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm 

Comment by Warren Huang - May 15, 2008 at 2:03 pm on How to identify  and control asset bubble on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog

From my tracking, proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global energy, housing, IT bubbles burst results shown that all asst bubble formation can be idnetified 3 years ahead, I warned on Asian/China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shangahi, Beijin, Nov. 2003 that US /China housing bubble overheating, facing rate hike summer 2004,
US and China central banks did rate rate to cool housing, Fed cut money supply growth from 6 % to 2005 3.5 %, after Greenspan 17 raise rates, housing sales and price start peaking out in 2006.  However, after Bernanke stop rate hike in 2006, money supply growth up from 4 % to 6.5 % in 2007, excessive liquidity resulted subprime mortgage crisis,
If Fed continue adapt tight money policy credit rating through 2007, it will stop many questionable sub prime loans. despite housing bubble may burst, we will be already recovered now.
Fed should not yield to political pressure in dealing with asset bubble, same was true for 1996- 1998 IT stock prices bubble identification and continue credit tightening ing. will avoided 2000 bubble burst ( Nasdaq would just up to 3000 not 5100, much small bubble easier to deal with.
China follow US Fed, enjoyed macroeconomic and housing market soft landing in 2005 inflation down to 1.2 % after China Peoples Bank reduce the money supply growth from 24 to 13, housing price was up 200 % in 2004, plunged 30 % in 2005, stock prices plunged from 2000 to 1100. However, after CPBC follow US FEd stop credit tightening, money supply explode from 15 % to 20 %, stock market soared from 1400 to 6300, housing prices up 300 % again in 2007. and forced CPBC 6 times rate hike, 14 time raise bank deposit ratio to remove excessive liquidity from housing stock markets wealth gain, stock prices plunged 50 %, housing prices still up 13 %, despite housing sales slump,
I warned on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump continue into this summer despite aggressive rate cuts, drag economy into recession, stock market bear correction.
We still have one third cities housing prices continue growing bubble, making bigger bubbles despite housing sales slump and doubling foreclosure , mounting job cuts, slump inn consumer confidence.This proactive, structural US national and regional housing prices, and mortgage defaults simulation forecast years, ahead national , regional housing price.
So, the answer is yes, Asset prices can be identified and asset price bursts, credit, financial crisis can be avoided by a decisive , independent central bank applying proactive structural decision simulators and predictive monetary policy, economic, fiscal policy control the bubble growth, before it getting too big.
Theseresults have been presented to 12 countries central bank governors, risk management conferences last 12 years, covering the causes, oset, dpread, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis and asset prices bubble burst. details on www.osawh.com/riskm.html www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Housing price slump, drag economic into recession continue 
Comment by Warren Huang -on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics April 16, 2008 at 6:38 pm

I warned last Sept on this blog that housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag banking, financial, housing, IT, retails stocks into bear market correction, lead to shrinking hosuing, equities wealth, cutting into consumer, business demand, job cuts drag economics into recession.
I also warned that rate cuts and economic stimulus package will not stop housing price slump, but drag dollar lower and led to soaring oil, commodities, food prices and
raw material cost, soaring inflation and profit squeeze. drag stocks, economic into deeper recession in the month ahead.
details onwww.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html

Comment by Warren Huang -on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Paulson Financial Regulation Blog  March 31, 2008 at 11:53 pm

In order to make any regulatory system to work, We need to know what , why exactly happen in current mortgage crisis, and financial market credit crunch, the Bear Stearn hedge fund 30 billion failure, real causes, onset, spread,and how to recover and early warning of mortgage and financial market crisis.
This thorough financial systems Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)of Monetary policy in impact on inflation, interest rates, housing, equities , commodities price bubble burst, and mortgage loan default, credit rating, MBS, CDO bond spread investment decisions, hedging on the wrong side of investment resulted billion dollar loss. Only through these proactive structural dynamic monetary policy impact on financial market asset price and risks valuation decision analysis for Fed market regulation and financial market rational decision analysis can achieve
market stability, before inject billions dollar to bail out the troubled industry.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm

We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility,  consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting.   However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm    www.osawh.com/currency.html    www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1

Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World
 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing,
 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 

2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary slowdown, stock markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned US heading for recession summer 2008 , oil go to 100, US, global stocks
give up all their gain since 2006  despite rate cuts on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept. 19, 2007

Based on my 30 years research on proactive, structural simulation of global monetary , fiscal policy impact on economic, asset prices bubble burst, financial market prices indicated Bernanke research has been limited to macro-financial credit flow.
The missing link in industrial sectors asset bubbles, which are the primary reason for all the credit crisis , from IT asset to current housing asset and energy asset price bubble.
Benanke and Greenspan choose to ignore asset price bubble in monetary policy resulted the burst of unprecedented housing price bubble burst resulted credit crisis and economic, recession. There is no way any rate cuts , stimulus can stop current housing price slump until that slump is over, rate cuts, credit flow become effective .details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm and www.osawh.com/riskm.html and www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Market Beat Blog  January 23, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street journal Market Beat Blog- February 5, 2008 at 8:52 pm

 I warned last Sept that financial and homebuilding sectors will be drag into severe recession bear market correction despite rate cuts, with prices plunged 50- 70 % by continued housing price slump till summer 2008.
Today’s service sector index plunged into 44 of deep recession.
Recent rally are just bear market selling into the rally, will be heading for new lows in the month ahead.
Current recession is close to 1980 style inflationary recession, with excessive rate cuts, and stimulus may lead to double dip ( recession) We will be facing another housing bubble bursts by rate hike later to fight inflation.
Unreliable rating lead to current subprime and mortgage crisis
.Incentive is not the major causes of rating result which fail CDO, MBS. It is the out of dated rating methods (as Greenspan indicated using 30 year method) rater and market analyst provided investor with optimistic rating on ENRON, CFC, (give investment grade till before bankruptcy announcement ).
Market conscious Fed may cuts the rates to 2.5 % or below in the next bear market correction, Dow Jones plunge below 11,000. But Fed will finally give up on support the stock, as economy testing the recession bottom this summer. details can be found on
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm in spring, as Dow Jones

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half
point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price
 already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year, Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 850  soybean heading for 1100  wheat to 870., eventually will spread into core inflation. As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession  and stock markets bear market  bear correction ahead
detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street journal Market Beat- September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary slowdown, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strateDr. Warren Huang will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 2008 
Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco  in-house workshops    wh3928@yahoo.com
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5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
Dr Warren Huang comment to Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog. Jan 10, 2008 Benanke Forecast recession is tough

In order to forecast recession, you need to know the root causes of tne fundamental market forces mechanism of economic boom and bust cycles,
You will never forecast these boom and bubbles using conventional GDP growth and CPI (core inflation) price stability data. and always missing and chasing. I presented to 24 global central governors policy conferences ( US Fed, China ECB, Asian ) my 30 years research on proactive structural asset prices simulation forecasted 2003 on Asian/China finance, capital market conference, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, current
US, China housing bubbles resulted economic overheating and June 2007 on my www.osawh.com/centmaf.html website and Peking University lecture and Sept on this blog warning on housing bubble burst resulted subprime crisis spread into housing crisis extend into 2008 summer and drag economic into recession. You need to integrate into monetary , fiscal, economic policy impact on interest rates, currency, oil, commodities, prices, hosuing, equities prices bubbles, unemployment.
These models predicted last years, months ahead of 30 years global economic, asset prices bubbles boom abd bust and overheating and recession, provide optimal trilemma monetary solution in asset price, GDP growth, currency and inflation balance.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm and www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment by Warren Huang - January 10, 2008 at 7:51 pm

Dr. Warren Huang Policy Dilemma,  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy stimulus impact , Wall Street Real time economy Blog. Jan 7, 2008

It is very important for timing of monetary, economic, fiscal policy, the right timing make monetary, fiscal policy work like magic, while
bad timing make it disaster Comment by Warren Huang - January 7, 2008 at 7:52 pm

Based on my 30 years proactive structural dynamic simulation of global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on economic and asset prices bubbles burst cycles. that stimulus package at the wrong time can be disastrous, like rate cut on top of all time high oil, commodities prices and record low dollar is putting oil on top of fire, it fail to support the asset prices, but postponed the pricing slump lead to deeper inflationary
recession  Greenspan 2001 rate cuts, fiscal tax cut series came at the right time, inflation at 1.4 %, oil, commodities, housing price were rest at bottom, dollar weakness helped boosting export and corporate profit.
While current rate cuts adding to risks of runway inflation, at record oil, metal s prices, weak dollar push higher inflation, manufacturing cost, cutting into profit, stock prices details can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - January 7, 2008 at 8:02 pm

Dr. Warren Huang Policy Dilemma, Manufacturing inflation up , Wall Street Real time economy Blog. Jan 4, 2008
 Based on my 30 years tracking of global monetary policy impact on macro/ financial/industrial economic,it is better to compare steering the economy to driving a car on long distance freeway. 7 years continued driving at 65 MPH already shown the engine is overheating ( that unreliable meter underestimate the true temperature .(core inflation) We are facing water tank is boiling, will force the car to slowdown or repair, the mortgage crisis indicating
mechanical trouble due to overheating cut rate like step on gas for moving at higher speed  for lower unemployment ( it is inflationary, lead to engine overheating and forced to stop ( economic crash ) or inflationary recession, ( slower speed, cool the engine gradually. details can be found www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - January 4, 2008 at 6:37 pm

I predicted on this blog and my www.osawh.com/centmaf.html webpage before last Sept Fed first rate cut that Fed facing policy trilemma in rate cuts will drag dollar lower, push oil to 100, risking inflationary
recession 2008, Benanke is not so lucky as Greenspan 2001 oil price was only 19, and the country already in recession then. while Benanke enjoyed all time high stock and oil prices I also predicted on my webpage
www.osawh.com/SWF.htm and this blog Spt. and Dec. that China Blackstone heavily invested in real estate facing trouble , share plunge to 20 and warned it is poor timing the housing bottom and SWF investment in financial, have to wait till summer housing slump improved. 2008 forecast can be found on www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - January 4, 2008 at 11:01 am

We should not be surprise at todays 5 % unemployment  figure, given the mess banking finance faced, the jobcuts in these sector and retail, and housing , construction sectors slump ahead, how to hide those job cuts?
We should be expected , just do not want to believe it. We should expect worse is yet to come, despite rate cuts.
From my 30 years tracking monetary policy impact on macro/financial/industrial economy of housing bubble burst, it take minimum one year to respond to any rate cut, after housing slump is improved. details can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
Dr. Warren Huang Manufacturing inflation up , Wall Street Real time economy Blog.  Dec. 27, 2007

I warned on this blog two month ago that based on my 30 years consulting experience with US multinational oil, Taiwan, China oil and downstream companies that soaring oil, energy and commodities prices will drive up the raw material and energy cost of the downstream 5000 products (acounts for 70 % of manufacturing costs of construction material, plastics, fibers, appliance, auto )and spread into CPI and core inflation 3- 6 month later)China Nov. inflation up 6.9 % US up 4.2 %), it will getting higher in the month ahead, as costs fully reflected in these products. These result published on US Houston Gulf publishing co. patented in US and circulate millions copies to 80 countries oil industries details can be found on www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html

Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:26 pm

Dr. Warren Huang 2008 forecast on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog

December 21, 2007, 11:36 am

Based on my last 30 years global economic, financial market equities, housing, commodities, currency, bond boom and bust cycles markets operations simulation analysis (OSA),next year will be even more volatile, turbulent than 2007.
Housing price slump continue drag mortgage default spreading into other sectors of economic recession, currency, commodities prices bubble facing burst too ( oil and metals price also follow housing, stocks prices into bear markets correction, global emerging markets are not immune to US trouble, China credit tightening will drag China and Asian markets correction. EURO facing slowdown due to overvalued EURO.
Feds action is no longer the key issue, rate cut or hike can not stop the bubble burst.
It will take one year to recover. So optimal long-short strategy is the best strategy
for turbulent markets details can be found www.osawh.com/A130-30wksp.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - December 21, 2007 at 12:11 pm

Bernie Schaeffer on 2008

 

What goes on in here matters a lot next year, Schaeffer says.
 

Given all of the turmoil in 2007, it’s a wonder the major indexes are up at all, says Bernie Schaeffer, president of Schaeffer’s Investment Research, in looking back on the year. He notes that the sector with (at the beginning of the year, anyway) the largest influence on the S&P 500, the financials, have “taken a major whupping,” and there seems “to be more and more shoes dropping.”
One aspect of investing that’s changed, he says, is that equity investors can no longer afford to play only in their own pool – they’ve got to keep an eye on much more, be it commodities, currencies, derivatives, swap spreads, and the various permutations of each. That said, he’s got a constructive outlook for 2008, noting how the market has weathered the subprime nonsense and an en masse exiting from U.S. equity funds by mutual fund investors.
“In general, there’s a very low expectations scenario being applied to 2008,” he says. “Economy-wise, earnings, dollar-wise, housing, consumer-wise. There’s lots of potential for shocks to the upside.”
The caveat? He calls the Fed the biggest wild card (he’s of the belief that the federal-funds target should already be much lower than the current 4.25% rate), and says it’s unclear just what they’ll do.

Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 18, 2007

ECB 500 billion loan to commercial banks number looks big, but small comparing to 100 trillion derivatives and CDO.While facing US and global housing markets slump continue
into next summer. As I pointed out that any Fed, central banks action, injection of money into the system will not stop housing slump, stimulate credit demand for supporting the housing prices which are not sustainable.
Beside US housing bubble burst, UK, even China, and other Asian countries will join the crowd
details can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Comment by Warren Huang - December 18, 2007 at 12:47 pm

 Proactive structural  macro economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China contractionary/expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation targeting, control tracking. predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag US dollar and stock market for correction,
Dr. Huang predicted June  2007 on Peking University, Beijing,  financial risks management conferences to global investment banks CEO, VP that  July oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600  US sub-prime defaults resulted Dow Jones Index down 10 % global stocks plunged 20 %

Comment by Warren Huang - October 31, 2007 at 9:31 pm on Wall Street Journal Economic Blog

Fed is continue cutting rate to keep the stock market rally and support the housing sales and prices and also drag the dollar lower and driving oil and commodities prices to new record high.
Fed’s additional rate cut drive up consumer and business spending will adding
to demand for oil, energy, commodities, and stock markets speculaton, drive up inflation, will help little on housing market slump
which sit on 10 month unsold inventory.
We will see inflationary pressure in the winter ahead and inflationary slowdown  recession follow.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment by Warren Huang - October 31, 2007 at 9:31 pm

Inflation targeting will not help, if you do not have good reliable  real future inflation
That is why  our policy are always chasing the inflation, underestimated the real
inflation. and long term bond yield is below short term interest rate and we think bond is risk free interest rate is very dangerous concept, There is  always  risks in any financial asset due to the uncertainties.
From my Proactive, structural tracking of last 20 tracking global inflation rate,
it is  obvious  that inflation is related closely to money supply growth, currency, un-employment ( consumer spending) and housing, equities, commodities price. you can have low inflation
rate at 3 % , but housing, stock prices bubble burst
like Japan in 1990 (properties price soared 200 %)stock prices soared 300 % like we have stock prices soared 100 %, coastal are housing soared 300 % now, even core inflation still below 2 %, so we can cut interest rate.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 21, 2007 at 5:43 pm
Wall Street Market beat Blog Sept. 21, 2007 timing of Fed rate cut

Greenspan finally agree that excessive rate cut lead to housing bubble, as it confirm by my housing bubble price model, relating monetary policy Fed fund rate cut to 1 % led to 30 yr mortgage rate stay at 6 % despite 17 rate hikes, resulted soaring housing loan demand and skyrocketing prices since 2003
I kept warning on global central banks conferences since 2002 that US Fed excessive rate and tax cut induced housing bubble ,and the trillion dollar housing wealth gain, the resulted bubble keep growing, until out of control of any central banks can handle, the bubble must burst, housing prices must plunged 25 % for medium price and 30-50 % for high end luxury, office building like it did in 1990, 2001 in US and Japan get even worst .and China Peoples Bank working hard on fight excessive wealth gain resulted stocks, housing bubbles
rate cuts to use stock market support housing prices, just temporary, only lead to deep recession.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 21, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Mexican structural solution to soaring food price inflation, has been implemented in China and many emerging markets. That is two master hands controlling macroeconomics, using both
monetary policy and industrial control ( food industry) or housing industry policy control to avoid  rate rate cut/hike resulted impact.
US using core inflation to exclude food and energy price) in macroeconomic control encouraging commodities prices speculation an running away from the asset price bubble problem.
On currency crisis, as long as the currency changes in a gradual way, dissipate the impact gradually, like dollar appreciated 70 % against Yen ( from 250 to 100),no currency crisis, but imported gradually US inflation to 6.5 % lead to Japan bubbles burst, US deep recession in 1990
This observation are based tracking simulation of last 20 years global monetary policy impact on interest rates, currency,20 industrial sectors, demand, prices bubblesdetail can be found on
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html Comment by Warren Huang - September 21, 2007 at 12:31 pm

Fed ’s rate cut is little to early and too much, If stock , commodity prices made 20 % correction, housing prices plunge another 15 %, economic cool off a bit, will be much safer, have more room and time for expansionary policy.
we are already at its peak ,stock index, housing , energy, feed grain, metal prices all at all time high,
even money supply growth is doubled from year ago ( 3.5 % to 6.8 % in Aug.
we are very much in 1998 LTCM bail out, went inot 1999-2000 bubble burst. details can be found
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html Comment by Warren Huang - September 20, 2007 at 1:24 pm

Wall Street Journal Marketbeat  Blog, Sept. 19- 20 , 2007
Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.
bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,
Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time high and heading for 85-90, gold already 735, soybean at 945, wheat to 870., eventually will spread into core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment
it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, led to
more default, the burst of next housing bubble, can not be solved by any rate cuts
Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession ahead
detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.htmlComment by Warren Huang - September 18, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blot Sept. 19, 2007

My financial and industrial econometric model relating housing prices and mortgage loan default to money supply, mortgage rate, stock index, housing prices, unemployment, inflation, fed fund rate warned Fed 2003,in Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events QFII executive conference that US China facing housing bubbles,
and credit tightening,
Fed underestimate oil price, commodity and housing demand, prices, stocks prices bubble, use core inflation (exclude energy, food) over emphasize cut unemployment rate (which is inflationary) to delay rate hike to June 2004 with 17 rate hikes at 25 base point at each time , however Fed’s ignoring commodities, housing, stock asset prices
bubbles, leave 30 yr mortgage rate at 6 % all time low, despite 17 rate hikes, are the root causes of housing bubble,
and Bernanke leave rate un-change in June last year too soon, to let the stock market speculation Dow JOne up 40 % further drive up housing prices resulted excess wealth gain, excess liquidity, resulte sub-prime problem.
m2 money supply growth soared from 3.5 % June 2006 to July 6.18 2007 and 6.68 % Aug 2007 after 100 billion cash injection, Now 50 base point cut will further inflate the bubble and inflation.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Comment by Warren Huang - September 19, 2007 at 3:33 pm

He warned that  Yield curve- recession , Fed using yield curve for rate cut , 10 yr yield rise

July all time high Dow Jones index already pushed housing prices up 5 %, Aug Fed inject 100 billion into the banking systems and 50 points discount cut already increased m2 money supply from 3.5 % a year ago to 6.68 % ( vs, July 6.15 %), This month’s Fed fund and discount rate cut is definitely raise the money supply growth to 7.5 %, that will surely drive the inflation rate up again ( we already have first 8 month CPI up 3.7 %).
Oil price already break 82, challenging 85-90 this winter,and may be 100, next spring if inflation getting worse,
that is why 10 yr bond yield up to 4.5 %, it will be back to 5 % by the end of this year
Fed is putting too much weight on near term growth, which we are already overheated by asset prices
bubbles, while ignoring again asset bubble induced inflation pressure.
detail can be found on http://www.osawh.com/certmaf.html

Comment by Warren Huang - September 19, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Use the yield curve for predicting Fed policy and recession, may not be correct, as it made the mistake in 1998 LTCM, every bet the spread will be narrowing down, except my inflation correlation predicting soaring inflation and yield spread,
It repeated this time, Fed did followed yield curve by cutting half point again, everyone underestimated oil, commodities, and asset prices bubble impact on inflation resulted yield curve inversion, Treasure is below Fed Fund rate, to force Fed to lower its rate the adaptive expectation is manipulate toe Fed decision now.
We are in much different situation than 2001 Greenspan cut rate, US and global economy  was following IT bubble burst, stocks plunged 70 % oil price was only 19 dollars, economy was facing recession
While We just had 4 % GDP in the second quarter, oil, metal, feedgrain prices make all time high, Dow Jones make 14000 push global stocks record high, China, US, global housing prices are peaking ,just a few bad news, job report, mortgage company default, forced central bank cut rate, re-inflate the overheated economy,
you will see oil price shoot for 90-100 and inflation above 3.5 % and followed by
series rate hikes by next summer, and recession follows.
We certainly do not want to see that
Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal  Marktbeat Blog- September 18, 2007 at 1:21 pm

Fed’s ignoring equities, housing, commodities price bubbles, which are the major causes for inflation and financial crisis in the last 20 years.
The missing link between asset prices and inflation caused Fed 17 rate hikes fail to control inflation and still chasing after the inflation
Based on my proactive , structural simulation of last 20 years global cerntrl banks monetray policy impact on interest rates, inflation currency, asset prices, employment
It indicate that maximum employment always lead to asset prices bubble and soaring inflation, eventually credit defaults, financial crisis
The classical maximize employment and price stability are conflicting and hard to achieve, without taking asset prices into account tracking the asset prices bubbles
details can be found on the causes , onset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis
presented to global central banks governor  conferences
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html  Comment by Warren Huang - September 1, 2007 at 3:29 pm

Trillions dollars currency carried traded daily in global equities, bond, commodities, real estate assets in financial markets by fund managers, traders, speculating betting on interests rates ( most of the time betting on the wrong side )impact on dollars and associated assets.
Dollar enjoyed rally against yen due to Japan zero interest rate, however continue slide as recent discount rate cuts.
and make all time low against high yield UK and EURO.
Further rate cuts will drag US dollar, stocks, bond prices and drive up oil, commodities, metal prices it may avoided near term recession, however, will postpone it a year later,will be followed by another round of rate hikes, led to deep recession follows, like 1998 LTCM rescue, followed by 2000 rate hikes and IT bubble burst ( this time housing bubble burst)
details can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html  Comment by Warren Huang - September 17, 2007 at 1:18 pm

It is nothing to be alarm on Sept 7 job loss report led to Dow Jones  plunged 200 point ( it is overpriced already), As this should be expected that is just the begin of a series of job loss report come from mortgage default and 40 % plunge in housing start, that is why Fed act to cut discount rate by 0.5 %
It is obvious that a 4.4 % unemployment is already inflationary in housing construction a few months ago led to soaring metal, oil prices and inflation. Oil price soared to 77 and gold break 700 to 722, wheat prices doubled to 833.This inflationary pressure will be spread into core inflation, it will getting worse if further rate cuts will re-inflate the housing bubble, that is what Fed really worried about
 Fed does not response to housing prices soared 300 % in coastal  areas  of NY, California make affordability drop from 60 % to 40 %,and pushed oil, metals, commodities price soared 300 %, CPI inflation up 4.5 %, but Fed watched core inflation ( exclude food and energy) still below 2 % now it response to 20 % housing price correction by cutting rates, stimulated overheated equities, housing demand( which is normal supply demand relation)
Fed missing link between housing, equities price bubble and CPI inflation and housing prices bubbles always leading to mortgage loan default and banking crisis.
by maintaining stocks, housing bubble growth, the trillion wealth gain it drown Fed , make it hard to manipulate like current China twin asset bubbles, will reach huge bubble bursts, with or without central bank control, that deep recession following will be horrible. details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html  tracking, forecast last 20 years global causes, onset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, asset bubble crisis
 Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007  and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial
engineering risk management conference  that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage  and hedging fund  default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted  global stock indices are extremely over-priced ,will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes
 into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles  sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain  in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US  Fed  0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further  inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly inflationary and continue into second stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)  Recent Dow Jones plunged 1200 points as Yen plunged fro 123 to 113 and sub prime worry, oil price soared to 77
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,  integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency  simulation tracking into capital and housing market asset prices bubbles (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, SP and global stock indices) OSA simulation charts ( through proactive structural OSA expert systems and integrating into EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Auto-)regression Conditional Hetroskedasdicity from Engle's ARCH ) with correlation constant of 0.99 and maximum error less than 3 %
Global Structural finance OSA structural dynamic, deterministic  simulators on Dr. Warren Huang's speech prediction years, 3 month ahead of inflation, interest rate hikes on last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global macro economic control, inflation, interest rates, capital, money, insurance, bond  and housing, equities markets and 20 industrial sectors asset prices and defaults risks early warning
 
He warned Nov. 2003 on Euro-events  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1,   lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  http://www.osawh.com/ website that US , China housing bubbles pushed oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  Fed summer  rate hikes, China credit tightening,  continue into 2007, housing bubbles induced China stocks bubble 2006  and US housing prices bubble burst resulted loan default,  avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
He warned to Merril Lynch and HSBC managing directors, SVP in Beijin conference June 16, 2007  that US and global housing markets facing loan default risks due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates
 Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman, BNP , American Home Mortgage  and other financial, mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's warning again, underestimated oil, commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on inflation, expecting rake cut resulted betting on the wrong side of interest rates, bond yield drag 10 yr bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang predicting  5.25 %) and US housing price,
and market slump into recession  resulted billion dollars mortgage loan default  and mortgage bond hedge fund bankruptcy
Dr. Huang predicted US Fed Aug meeting to leave rate unchanged , concern on inflation, using housing
market recession to cool off overheated  economy due to wealth effect induced equities, housing market bubbles resulted inflation.
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 EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
 Hong Kong money supply growth,  inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on  Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops 

OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of  Dr. Warren Huang speaking,   pioneering experiences in development, implementation of  innovative financial engineering theory of two master hands controlling global macro economic control, growth, prices stability  and daily financial capital market assets ( stocks, bond, housing, commodities)  prices:  Thousand proactive structural dynamic simulation forecasts month, years  ahead  of  macroeconomic  control, monetary economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years  China/global GDP, employment, inflation and   daily capital markets interest rates, currency, bond, commodity,  industrial sectors  demand, prices,  stock prices  market forces mechanism forecast supporting US, China, Taiwan, Asian  government, banking, finance, multinational, state and  medium, small enterprises  reform, venture capital investment banking, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning for  global financial, currency, asset bubbles burst crisis, Basel II credit, market., operations risks  management early warning. with correlation constant over 0.95, average error below 1.5 %, He has been invited to speak to US Washington area finance conference on global financial, banking crisis, ECB post Euro integration, China, Asian 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management, oil, financial futures, derivatives conferences.
Dr. Huang predicted Nov 2005, Beijin   China Oil Market conference to Phillips Petroleum CEO, Aramco, Exxon Mobil, HSBC  VP,and this website that soaring US, business, consumer demand will push  oil, metal prices to new high and  credit tightening rate hikes extend into summer, 2006 Fed fund rate to 5.5 %, global economy facing inflationary slowdown, stocks, bond market follow US for 20 % correction  repeating 2004 , give up 2005-2006 gain ,oil  prices will be soared to new high ( oil to 80, gold rebound to 550-750) in July peak summer demand season with soaring inflation and weakening dollar  despite recent setback in concern about economic slowdown
He predicted to Dec 13, 2006 National Taiwan University International Finance conference, QFII CEO, Journal of Finance editor, academics that oil prices will rebound from 54 to 69 in summer 2007, inflation will be up to 3.0 % , 10  yr bond yield to 5.2 %,
Fed start raise rate to above 5.5 % this summer, lead to inflationary slowdown, and US and global stock market correction

US/global  neutral  interest rate / inflation targeting will all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  current US/global monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy) , GDP, employment data to set fund rate, interest rates  fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset  market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth , consumer, business demand, 53  trillion equities and housing wealth effect speculation overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting soaring oil prices and its downstream 5000 products asset prices bubbles and inflation, after 16 measured rate hikes.
Innovative  proactive FRB monetary policy, rate hikes impact  Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.
 
Proactive US Fed  monetary policy strategy for innovative  rate hikes impact on  economy/capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.
  Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that Green and Bernanke under estimate wealth effect resulted asst bubbles impact on oil prices and  inflation and  oil prices will be soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,  US, CPI to 4.3 % in summer   will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265, stocks,, bond facing correction  give up all2005- 2006 gain ahead. Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2220, S&P 1150-1290
Greenspan agree with Dr. Warren Huang that RMB revaluation and US raise import tarrif by 27 % will not help manufacturing cut trade deficit and jobs.  

OSA China 2007 macroeconomic forecast:
Soaring oil prices, housing and stock prices  (wealth effect, domestic demand, booming export  in the first quarter 2007 pushed China money supply over 17 %  GDP growth 10.7 %, inflation up 3.0 %   interbank  rate t 1.60 is too low, must be back to 3 % in tightening the  credit to cool off the business demand
 As China raised rate by 0.27   supported by  housing  industry economic control two master hands, inter-bank rate rebound to 2.2 % predicted by Dr. Huang. Dr. Huang, energy forecast specialist accurately predicted Feb 22 , Nov 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO,( Merril Lynch , HSBC VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO and QFII, oil, executives that US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into  summer, 2006  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 ,  Dow Jones, 10000- 11350, Nasdaq 2000- 2350, S&P 1150-1350 
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets conference to Exxon Mobil, ARAMCO, VP , Phillips Petroleum CEO, 30  oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils , downstream demand driving oil prices to 64 around Christmas and 69 in January , metals prices to new high. plunging US dollar, stock, bond. and to 82 in summer 2006.
While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, run away inflation, 2000 asset bubble and European, Asian, Russia, S. America currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his websire http://www.osawh.com/  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, run away inflation, 2000 asset bubble and European, Asian, Russia, S. America currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his websire http://www.osawh.com/  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation.  Housing mortgage bond yield are below 6 %, too low to cut demand and asset bubble. pushing oils and construction materials, metal to new high in winter heating oil demand peak due to cold weather demand and soaring US trade deficit to 68.9 billion, drag US dollar predicted by Dr. Dr. Huang Nov 18, 2005 in Beijijn China Oil Market Conference  to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO, Phillips Petroleum CEO, VP  
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on http://www.osawh.com/  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Global Strategic Management  Dr. Warren Huang pioneered  innovation in OSA integrated structural dynamic  predictive models predict month ahead central banks  Monetary, Macro economic indicators stress testing models tracking, forecast its impact on banking, finance  asset prices market forces mechanism, NPL, Basel II risks, help central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives  stay ahead of achieving sustainable growth and prices stability  fighting inflation, asset bubbles tracking  cause, onset, recovery of global currency stress
 OSA  financial crisis, business cycle, bubble burst early warning,  supporting Base II market, credit, interest rate, liquidity,  operational risks tracking, simulation, control, maximizing  sustainable profit growth  in crisis 
  www.osawh.com    About OSA   Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream   workshops  home (中文)
The Only Optimal Structural, Dynamic Predictive Monetary Policy and Daily Open Market Operations Simulation Analysis for Sustainable Economic Growth, Capital Market Asset Prices Bubble, Wealth Effect, Banking, Finance  systems stress testing, Stability Predictive Control : Impact on Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Wealth Management, Risks Hedging, Early warning simulation (  strategic policy , Stress testing workshops)

Special announcement: As of March 31,  2005, all  http://www.osawh.com/    global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, 

You Missed Opportunities  in 2005 China/global monetary policy, macroeconomic control , finance, capital market asset prices forecasts, Dr. Huang predicted oil prices soared to 69  in summer 2005 and 80 in 2006
Breakthrough Innovation in proactive global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,  economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20 years  emerging global finance, capital  stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market  bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005  forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin  pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get  first hand information and OSA  proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will  use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  and  materials as lectures contents  *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks, banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, Sna Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.
 Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference/workshop Feb 23-25, 2005, Beijin hat oil prices will soared above 55 pushed up inflation, interest rate and bond yield extended into this summer. He  with share you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum and your in-house workshop
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf   China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  : The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global macroeconomic indicators,, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences
20 yrs daily global  market tracking  Capital Market  Investment Banking   e-Business   e-Government  Monetary Policy Asset Bubble  China/Global Derivatives Hedging   Biotech/Healthcare  EMBA/CEO  CIO/CKO  Basel II Risk control  Competitive Pricing Strategy  
 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global  currency, energy (1980, 1990, 2000), financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...  
Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last quarter GDP at 3 %) and followed by stagflation this year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
 2007 OSA Macroeconomic forecast  by Dr. Warren Huang   Apr 2007
Global economic recovery facing slowdown
                             Real  GDP  % change                    CPI   % change                     Exchange rate /USD
                             2006           2007                            2006        2007    2008          2006          2007        2008
 China                    10.7            9.6                              2.1          2.7           6               8.1              7.7           6.8
S. Korea                 5.1            4.5                               2.5          2.6                         1025            950        1380
US                          2.9            2.6                               2.1           2.8                           ----   
Brazil                     4.5            4.3                                6.6          5.2                            3.1            2.9          2.5
Canada                  3.0            3.1                                2.0          2.1                          1.33            1.33        1.15
Mexico                   3.1            3.0                               4.2           4.1                         11.22           11.5
Japan                     2.7            2.50                              0.5          1.0                          116            121          99
Euro                       2.57            2.4                              2.4         2.6                          1.26          1.27- 1.45  1.25-1.32
Rate cuts impact on US  recession
                                GDP annual change            Annual CPI change      Quarterly average                            
SP 500
                                     2007                               CPI 2008 QII          Fed fund rate       10Yr T-B        S& P    12/30/08
                            Q1    Q2     Q3    Q4                                                2008  Q4             2008Q4
BW  Consensus   3.1   2.92  3.1    3.1                       2.2                        1.25                   4.4                    
Dr. Huang OSA    2.70  0.5  2.1    1.5                        2.9                          1                       3.9                700  77 770000strategic investment/supply chain, Basel II risk control  workshops

  Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management
reserve by osawhh@citiz.net      wh3928@yahoo.com

Rate hikes Impact on Global  Oils, 20 industrial sectors demand, prices, profit squeeze simulation/forecast, strategic investment, supply chain logistics lectures/workshops tours 

Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubble early warning

OSA global central banks predictive macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices, industrial sectors demand, prices  simulation, forecasts months ahead,  value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts months ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts  avoided current feedback control, adjusting monetary policy based on last two month data resulted damages and always doing too little too late in fight inflation. He  lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
 20 years successful global tracking record:
Dr. Warren Huang using these structural dynamic models predicted the causes, onset, recovery of global financial, energy, currency crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst,  rate hike and cut of global central banks response
He predicted US and global stocks, asset prices overheated facing US FRB rate hike after May 2004 and China A shares, Hong Kong H share strong rebound at  Euro-events Asian Finance, capital market conference China finance, capital market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003,  to 1000 QFII asset, wealth managers,  Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and  his website http://www.osawh.com/
He predicted  US June 1999 rate hike and 2000 IT  bubble and equity wealth effect  burst at
ECB, JP Morgan conference on Post EURO Banking, Finance Integration Strategy, Rome, Nov. 26, 1998
Washington area banking, finance conference, Apr. 1999, Washington DC,
China central bank governor sponsored global central banks policy for sustainable growth, stability ,Macao, May, 1999, Taiwan central banks governor, sponsored Pacific Basin economic and finance, Taipei, May, 1999
He predicted first US first rate cut and recession and global stock follow Dow Jones plunge 40 %, Nasdaq plunged 70 % on warning to China Peoples Banks Beijin executives and this website  May, 2001 and predicted again to May , 2002 to Peking University's Global Finance conference  and Asian Business Forum,  Sept 2002 Kuala, Lumpur ABS conference ASEAN central banks, banking finance executive that US and global stock rebound and economy recovery after retest new low first quarter 2003 
Witnessed by million global government central banks ( China Peoples Bank, FRB, ECB, IMF, World Bank , IFC )banking, securities,  top investment bankers (Citicorp, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Nomura, UBS, Deutch Bank, Barclay Global, Fanniemae, Bank of America, Wellsfargo ), multinational executives visited this website since 1998 
China experience :He offered thousands lectures  to  30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV, radio 30 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national securities news papers and thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide banking, securities, insurance, properties CEO, manager, daily securities news accurately predicted China macro-economic control, credit tightening , Shanghai A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96 and first rate cut, soft landing, March 1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong financial crisis. 1997-1998. He accurately predicted on his website and Shanghai workshop March 2003 China A share rebound to 1650 and again in May warned Steel, auto, housing market overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit tightening, raise deposit ratio 1 % in Sept.
Taiwan experience: He offered  lectures  to  4 million China  TV 4 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers  wrote thousands articles  in million copies for daily news papers , investment, trade , economic journals and offered thousands workshops for hundreds banking, securities, insurance, properties , corporate CEO, CFO, accurately   covering  Taiwan central bank monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on economic boom and bust, daily  equities, properties wealth effect  bubble burst, recovery:  stock index from 650 to 12900  during 1986 to 1990 and crashed to 2400 in 1990 rebound to 10,000, in 2000 crashed to 3400 in 2001 warned in Jan 2002 Taiwan stock index follow Nasdaq rebound to 6500 overheated, should follow Nasdaq retest 4000.  
====Optimal, structural dynamic Simulation of  Global ( China, US, Taiwan, Asian) Central Banks monetary policy , Daily Open Market Operations impact on GDP growth, capital market asset prices bubbles, wealth effect early warning Simulation and predictive control, deflate the bubble and avoid the crisis  since 1985 =====
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have  E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate

Structural dynamic predictive monetary, economic, fiscal, trade  policy impact on the formation, growth, burst and recovery of global asset prices bubble for central banks asset bubble early warning and  deflation, avoiding bubble burst, feed forward price stability control.
 
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  model simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented out-sourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs :been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
 
Daily  global currency simulation , forecaststement cope with fast changing markets competitions

Government reform, strategic monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact macro economic, financial market prices Predictives  asset bubbles stability control  executives in-house /open workshopsutyour l

 by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
 Your Expert Workshop Leader:
Dr. Warren Huang, world  renowned global strategic management predictive and  feedback profit control expert, has   over 30 years  development, implementation of thousand rigorous structural, dynamics  causes  response models,  supporting  32 integrated global strategic investment, supply chain , marketing, competitive pricing process systems simulation and profit control published  20 English articles ( 2 million copies )on US Oil & Gas Journal, Hydrocarbon Processing, information management and  advanced control handbook 1991-2003, www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html  applied by 1600 multinational oils, petrochemicals from 78 countries provide integrated global economic, capital market asset prices and management process systems simulation for strategic investment, supply chain,  marketing, competitive pricing,  customer relationships  business process, technology systems integration and executives decision analysis training Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  for US  Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bechtel, Bailey network control, Stauffer Chemicals, Fluor and  consulting to China, Taiwan, government, state oil, petrochemicals, hundreds  medium, small enterprises.
He pioneered two master hands controlling global economics and capital market asset ( oil, metal, commodity futures, derivatives)  prices, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products demand, pricing, profit and stocks prices and wrote thousands Chinese articles  (over 100 million copies) on China ( economics, financial times, Shanghai, China, Shenzhen, Wuhan securities news) Taiwan (economics, commercial times, industrial economics), US (World Journal )  daily newspapers,  economic, finance, investment, marketing, trade journals, He has been keynote speaker for  100  global central banks ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Asian central banks ) governors policy and financial risks management,   strategic wealth management, supply chain, marketing , sales CRM, competitive pricing, chemical engineering, OPEC ministers conferences from 46 countries . He offered thousands strategic investment, wealth management, Basel II risk management, supply chain, marketing, sales CRM executives workshops  for   US,  China, Taiwan, Asian 15 cities TV, radio 30 million banking, finance executives, investors, and hundreds global banking, finance companies CEO, CFO, money managers, oil, petrochemicals upstream/downstream 1600 multinational  suppliers, customers, competitors CEO, CFO, corporate supply chain, investment , plant managers, senior executive bring their  problems to the workshops, take home trillion/billion dollar solutions ready to implement since 1980 , tracking  forecast month ahead monetary , economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years US, China, global economic, financial, currency crisis and daily capital markets asset prices, demand, competitive pricing strategy, profit margin, stock prices ,  maximize investment banking, commercial banking, securities , mutual fund asset allocation, portfolio selection performance ,retail branches business, consumer customer value and satisfaction, Basel II risks adjusted  investment return and market shares achieve up to 1000 % increase in revenue, profit during financial crisis. Millions global central banks( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank) banking ( Citicorp, JP Morgan, HSBC) securities ( Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sach), multinationals ( IBM, Exxon, BP) CEO, CFO, executives visited his website http://www.osawh.com/  for daily decision analysis since 1998.
He directed hundreds multinationals cross-functional cost, profit, quality, market shares, risks as goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution OSA for hundreds China nationwide investment banking, securities, retail banking branches and Taiwan investment banking, securities companies branches CEO, CFO, fund managers, investors, customers  strategic  value added marketing, sales promotion competitive pricing maximizing  US multinational oil, Taiwan, China state oils, petrochemicals, nationwide gasoline stations, engineering, high tech 20 industrial sectors 5000 consumer products companies retail chains sales , profit, customer value, market shares supported by  his   30 million US, China, Taiwan, Asian government, hundreds banking, securities retail branches investors, customers base through his teams develop, implement thousands proactive, predictive and reactive R & D product,  value added pricing , marketing innovation, customer value creation, cost reduction, competitors strategic cost, pricing, customer demand, behavior decision analysis structural dynamic strategic  OSA simulators for products full life cycle domestic, export, import  marketing, pricing strategy , TQM cost reduction, Basel II market, credit, operational risks management in integrated supply demand, chain, market shares,  profit optimization, control.
He received his Ph.D in Chemical Engineering, Operations Research from Polytechnic Institute of New York, was professor of Chemical Engineering, operations research, industrial economics, process design, simulation, control at Taiwan , Tsinghwa, Tunghai university in Taiwan and lecturing China Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Zechian, Jiaotung, Dalian, Huazhon science, Tech university on economic management, information management, control, financial engineering

Banking, Finance, Corporate Governance Reform, Scandals Early Warning
Financial Accounting Systems OSA Maximize Perfromance, Transparency
 

                                       by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:
Strategic Corporate Governance Maximize Corporate Profit and board members, investors performance and financial accounting transparency.
 
Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives  ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on corporate profit/loss financial statements, board members, investors  for US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries; tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20  years global  financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis resulted corporate accounting scandals to prevent market analyst, corporate executives speculation on inflated profits and hiding loss resulted stock price bubble resulted trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your financial accounting systems simulation and early warning supporting Sabarnes- Oxley Act audit, compensation committee, oversight board, government securities, banking, insurance regulation tracking possible fraud.

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits, board members, investors performance, transparency,  tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003  and  http://www.osawh.com/ website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on asset prices, bubble, cost and accounting system profit/loss simulation , tracking on and off  balance sheet entities.
Corporate sales, earning OSA,
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, IPO performance  OSA
Structural finance derivatives prices OSA
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, supporting Sarbanes-Oxley Act , securities, banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Case studies: tracking the root causes, onset, recovery of global corporate accounting scandals
 US  Enron,  WCOM,  TYCO, Global Crossing
China Guanxia,  numerous  high tech reform ST stocks
Taiwan Fertilizer, China Development Banks, Banks, Construction industries.
Who should attend: Accounting oversight board, banking, securities corporate CEO, CFO, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants,  investment bankers.. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net  one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office  

 Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial sectors demand, asset prices, bubbles,  investment, supply chain costs, profits, stock prices
 
Series One  : Monetary policy impact on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong housing demand, prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profit strategic management workshops ( select your country )
                                       by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:

Strategic Housing investment, supply chain cost reduction maximize operating profits, investment return and minimize bubble burst resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan defaults
 
Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives  ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on  US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks corporate profits, stock prices investment, supply chain logistics cost performance.  
Tracking ;  forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20  years global housing bubble burst  resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan asset  and asset securitization risks 
implement, recommend on your housing, finance, construction material investment, supply chain logistics cost reduction strategy  
Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits at minimum risks
Tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003  and  http://www.osawh.com/ thousands lectures to China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio station investors, hundreds banking, securities, real estate CEO, CFO, executives , wrote thousands articles on government, economics , banking industrial finance daily newpapers, journals tracking listed housing, mortgage banks, construction materials companies investment, supply chain cost, profits, investment strategy,  website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks asset prices, bubble, cost and  profit/loss simulation , investment strategy
housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan  demand, prices OSA  
Housing construction materials cost /prices, supply chain costs  simulation
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, Strategic Asset management, Asset/Mortgage backed  securitization prices risks
Case studies:
The root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of properties NPL  asset OSA
US mortgage companies Fannie Mai, Freddie Mac
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong listed housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, minimize investment, bubble burst risks early warning and support  banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Who should attend: Housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks banking, securities, investment bankers corporate CEO, CFO, supply chain logistics managers , securities, insurance, banking regulation commission, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net  one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office 
These deterministic artificial intelligence neural net expert systems based dynamics simulation models tracking accurately last 20 years US, European, and Asian, ASEAN, South America central banks monetary policy impact on economic growth, inflation and daily stable and crisis under stress activities in financial markets interest rates, currency exchange rate, commodities, financial derivatives, bond, corporate profit margins, stock prices. These systems tracking, predicted the root causes, onset, spread of 1992 European currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation and 1996 soft-landing and how China avoided the 1997-98 Asian Financial crisis, 1997 ASEAN, 1998 Asian financial crisis, its spread to Russia, Brazil and the mature markets 70 trillion OTC financial derivatives markets LTCM failure due to betting on the wrong side of bond spread and current recovery with average error below 1.5 % correlation above 0.95

Policy impact on sustainable growth, prices stability, financial crisis, risk management:

Senior author Huang US experience for US multinational and Global experience in the development, implementation of corporate planning, risk management Operation Simulation Analysis(OSA) during 1965- 1980 and directed hundreds of goal, mission, performance oriented global strategic management OSA strategic and execution teams, for Taiwan ( 1980 - 1996) and China (1994 - 1998 with Ji) tracking how China peoples banks monetary policy, financial market supervision, regulation helped China soft landing in 1996, due to 1994 high inflation, currency depreciation, and how China avoided Asian financial crisis during 1997-98. It also applied to US government, financial industry, corporate restructuring, reengineering achieve billion dollar reduction without staff reduction: on the job training, TV, radio lectures for 30 millions government , academic, state, private enterprises, banking, finance industries CEO, CFO, senior executives, fund managers, traders, investors risk management

presented to central banks governors policy conference, Macao, May 15,1999 Organized by China People's bank governor Dai

References

1. Strategic China  Investment/SCM/CRM  logistics maximize WTO profits” to China supply chain, logistics conference, Northern Jiaotung Univ. School of management, Beijin,  May 18-20, 2004  www.osawh.com/Chinaerp.html

2 Global/China capital markets asset prices, bubble, financial crisis, corporate governance simulation, risk management” to Pan-Pacific business conference Shanghai  Jiaotung  Univ.School of Management,  Shanghai, May 29-30, 2003  www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html 

3 Asian capital markets asset prices, bubble simulation, risk management” presented to Asian Business Forum sponsored  ABS securitization conference, Kuala Lumpur Sept 30. 2002, for global central banks, banking, securities, stock exchange investment  banking asset allocation,  

4 Asian  banking, financial crisis, global recession recovery impact on ABS prices,  risk management” to Asian Business Forum   ABS securitization conference, Kuala Lumpur Sept 30-Oct. 1 2002, for global central banks, banking, securities, stock exchange investment  banking
5 Strategic European and Asian hedging fund risk management” presented to Int’l Business Conference,  London, July 11-13, 2002 

6  Global/China capital markets asset prices, bubble, corporate governance simulation, risk management” to Global corporate governance conference, Peking Guanhua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, May 28-29, 2002  www.osawh.com/GCaptbj.html 
7 Strategic China oils upstream/downstream ERP/SCM/CRM maximize WTO profits” 2- full day workshop offered  to Chinese Petroleum investment, planning managers at Taipei Horward Plaza Hotel, Jan 21-22, 2002 www.osawh.com/Chinaerp.html 
8 Strategic China oils upstream/downstream ERP/SCM/CRM maximize WTO profits” full day workshop offered to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, CNOOC, China, Asian oil, gas, Singapore Development bank VP, executives ,Beijing, Nov. 29-30, 2001 

9 Strategic cross strait China investment/merger  return and risks in post WTO ” lectured to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, CNOOC, China, Asian oil, gas, Singapore Development bank VP, executives at Beijin Kerry Center Hotel, Nov. 29-30, 2001

11  Strategic integrated supply demand chain for oil/chemical industry ”, offered keynote speech to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, BP, Shell, Thailand Petroleum, petrochemicals, Chevron, Texaco, VP, trade managers, IT software VP, Apr 26-27, 2001, Singapore

12. Strategic integrated supply demand chain TQM saves billion dollar SCM cost for oil/chemical industry ”, offered full day workshop to IBC (Int’l Business Conference) Asia to Exxon, BP, Shell, Thailand Petroleum, petrochemicals, Chevron, Texaco, VP, trade managers, Apr 26-27, 2001,   
13. Monetary policy impact on Financial , Banking crisis, risk management “ presented to, Academic of Finance , US FED Chicago governors, Mar. 7, 2001 Chicago and 50 aniversary meeting of Midwest Finance meeting , US Fed Cleveland governor,  Mar.,2001 Cleveland, Ohio

13  Monetary policy impact on Financial market prices ,e-global currency, e-Investing Strategy and e-Risk management”, presented to Global  Finance conference Apr 4-7, 2001,  Los Angeles

14.. " Monetary Policy impact on Asian  financial crisis, recovery and risk management" presented to 9 th  Asian Pacific finance conference, Bangkok, Thailand, July24, 2001 presented to  Thailand Prime minister, Asian central bank governors, banking, finance CEO, CFO, academics.

15. " Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery" speak to Thai prime minister, ASEAN, Taiwan central banks governors

7 th  Pacific economic and finance conference , Bangkok, Thailand,  June 1, 2000, banking, finance CEO, CFO, academics

16. Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial Banking Crisis and Risk management’, Invited by NASD, American Futures Association, George Mason , George Washington Univ sponsored Washington Area Finance research Conference, Apr. 30, 1999 

16 “Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Post EURO financial and banking integration performance, strategy” speak to J P Morgan, ECB  and University of Rome  on Post EURO  finance and banking integration strategy  conference in Rome Italy, Nov. 24-25, 1998

17 “Asian/Global Financial , Banking Crisis Recovery, pre-warning and Risk management” to China Peoples Bank, Monetary Authority of Macau sponsored Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy for Sustainable Growth in Macau, on May,1999 

18 Global, Financial Crisis impact on Pacific stock and financial derivatives markets and risk hedging” to Pacific Basin Finance and Economic Conference in Taipei( speak to  Taiwan Futures Association, Minister of Finance, Taiwan Central bank governors, NTU May 28-29, 1999,

19. European Finance conference on June 3, 1999  speak on  Global financial crisis impact on EURO capital markets and session chairman for risks in int'l context , invited by Prof. David Walker, Global Capital Markets Research Center Director of Georgetown Univ. to a panel on emerging markets economy and crisis on June in European finance conference in Barcelona, Spain June,1999 .

20 “ Global financial crisis impact on global government and business risk management strategy” presented to .USDA, dept. agricultural government economics research service conference on Business &Government Strategy, Capital Hilton in Washington DC June 30,1999,  speak to the joint global financial crisis session and panel discussion on Global financial crisis impact on Government and business global risk management strategy. Dr. Huang together with World Bank, IMF director, Oxford Economics president, S&P DRI, director , US Agricultural economist, Goldman and Sachs.

21  Financial Crisis Impact on US financial markets prices, risk management,”, Midwest Finance conference Mar.1999 

22. Global Financial Crisis Impact on Global Currency Multinational Performance Risk Management" Multinational Finance Toronto, July  1999 

23. “Global Financial Crisis Impact on financial markets prices, risk management “ Royal Statistical Society, UK, Warwick, UK, July, 14, 1999

24. " Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery"  and " How China avoided Asian Crisis, achieving growth and stability" speak to ICCG Global financial crisis conference, Bangkok, Thailand, Oct. 22, 1999, speak to Thai prime minister, central bank governors

24a:”Goal, Mission performance oriented OSA teams education and training” American Inst. Chemical Eng. Dallas, TX, Nov 20, 1999

25.” Monetary Policy impact global financial crisis, recovery” to  Japan APEC  Studies conference Tokyo , Japan, Dec. 15, 1999

26”:Simulation of Asian Financial and LTC Crisis Impact on Global Financial Markets prices performance” Speak to EC2 econometrics Forecast conference in Stockholm Dec19,1998 Swedish school of economics.

 27”Asian Financial crisis impact on financial derivatives prices simulation and hedging risk management”, speak to QFM 98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives conference, in Sydney, Australia, Dec. 16 , 1998 

28” US Gulf Publishing, Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control, Information Systems annual  handbook 1991-2003 
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html  
29  Integrated global refinery, petrochemical strategic management” to INTERPEC  CHINA 91, by SINOPEC president, Oct. 1, 1991, Beijin

30 “ Economic Impact on global petrochemicals demand, trades, prices” presented to World Cong. Of Chemical Eng, Tokyo, Oct. 1, 1986

31 OSA applications in Chemical Eng. Education and Training”, presented to Third Chemical Eng. Congress, Tokyo, Sept. 1986

32 “OSA for global petrochemical marketing, sales strategy”  Am. Inst. Of Chemical Eng Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC,Oct. 1983

33”. Improve Process by OSA ,” published on Hydrocarbon Processing, May , 1980( one million copies in 78 countires)