Innovation in Strategic Global Banking, Finance, Capital Market Reform:
Proactive, Structural Dynamic Simulation of Capital Market Asset Prices
Market Forces, Mechanism
n
Lecture Summary:
China Capital Markets and Financial Engineering Innovation
by OSA Pioneer, Dr. Warren Huang speaking to Shanghai Finance and Economics
University May 21, 2005,
website
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com
n
1. OSA challenges
unknown futures make your dream come true, capitalize the emerging bull/bear
trend
2. Two master hands
controlling China economy, capital market asset prices
n
3. Monetary policy,
WTO impact on macro-economic, asset prices simulation.
n 4. China economic and capital markets Shanghai A, B, ADR, HK red chips, H shares outlook OSA forecasts
n 5. China asset futures prices, bubble earning for banking, finance, capital market reform simulation
A. Causes, onset, recovery of financial crisis, debt, equities, properties NPL assets, asset and mortgage securitization risk simulation and hedging.
B. Financial accounting tracking, earning warning for corporate governance scandals
======================================================
China Energy Strategy: Strategic China Energy
trade Finance, Investment Strategy conference and
Strategic
Corporate Governance, Enterprises Energy Risks Management workshop
Don't Miss This lectures
opportunities
in China/global oils strategic corporate
governance, enterprises risk management conference Nov. 17-18 Beijing,
China World Hotel for China/Global oil upstream/downstream, banking,
finance, CEO ,CFO, board members, auditing and management teams,
investment, supply chain senior executives
"Proactive
Strategic Corporate Governance and Enterprise Risk Management"
*
Proactive structural models tracking, simulation of China/global oil, gas
upstream/downstream futures, derivatives prices mechanism, cost,
financial, derivatives accounting.
* Proactive structural models tracking daily corporate operations and
governance performance ,scandals risks early warning and training board members,
management team, auditing teams meeting Sarbanes- Oxley compliances
*
Global strategic investment, joint ventures, M/A, supply chain, Basel II
global financial, energy crisis, credit, market risks simulation, early
warning,
* Profit, market share, risks as goal, mission, performance oriented strategic
governance, risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) team( CEO, CFO, board)
and execution teams( managers) maximize corporate operations and governance
transparency performances.
*
Case studies: US Mobil, Enron, Taiwan Chinese, China Aviation Oils
Dr. Warren
Huang BIO Dr. Huang has 30 years
experience in development, implementation of proactive strategic structural
simulators tracking for
Mobil, Phillips Petroleum, SINOPEC , Asian Consulting. He predicted last 20
years emerging market trend of global oil, gas upstream/downstream futures,
derivatives , listed stock prices, financial, energy crisis, corporate
scandals early warning for investment, supply chain, marketing strategy for
multinationals, SOE
board members, executives training . He spoke to global central banks governors,
risk management conferences wrote 35 articles for US Oil & Gas Journal,
Hydrocarbon Processing , Advanced Process Control , Information System Handbook
1991-2005. Millions global executives visited his website www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html
.>
reserve your
in-house workshop Oct- Nov, 2005, your office :
osawhh@yahoo.com.cn/
wh3928@yahoo.com
C. Banking, finance, enterprises
privatization, integrations, IPO/ ADR/ H stock, selling of holding of listed
shares, listing M/A performance prices tracking OSA
n 6. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China Interest rates, bond, derivatives OSA
n 7. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China stock indices futures, derivatives prices OSA
n 8. Monetary policy, WTO impact on currency, RMB market forces, prices mechanism, OSA
n 9. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China Housing wealth, prices, bubble earning warning
n 10 Monetary policy, WTO impact on China IT industry post bubble burst recovery OSA.
n 11. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China Oils upstream/Downstream performance OSA
n 12. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Commodity price futures, derivatives.
n 13. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China Medium, Small Casdaq market performance
n
14. Monetary
policy, WTO impact on Henseng, Dow Jones, Nikkei index OSA simulation charts
For full day in-house strategic investment workshop reservation
May 23- June 3 in China email
wh3928@yahoo.com (English)
osawhh@sina.com ( Chinese)
Proactive
Strategic
Operations Simulation Analysis Supported Global Government,
Banking, Finance
Reform, Reengineering, Risk Management Change Management Strategy:
Nonstop express to Sustainable Profits
through Integrate, Simulate, Maximize Government Policy, Economic Market Forces,
Banking, Financial Markets, Securities, Insurance Operations Performances for
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive
decision tools--
Predicted
3 months ahead
last
20 years global currency, 1980, 90, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing,
2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators
tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial
crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset ( interest rate,
currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market
forces mechanism, maximize banking, finance , insurance reform, integration, M/A
performance, avoided trillion
dollar market loss due to current probabilistic models based capital market
asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to US, European, China, Taiwan
, Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth management
conference
Daily Global Finance, Capital Stock Markets Tracking, Market Forces Prices Mechanism
Simulation, Forecasts
When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands
for tracking , forecasts last 20
years global
central banks
monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on macro-economic control , prices stability and capital
stocks, bond, oil, metals, commodity future, derivatives market
prices market forces prices mechanism, investors sentiment simulation, forecasts
, value investing strategy, wealth management,
risk hedging
That's what, why, how he has been
lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth
management, financial market risk management conferences and
millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website
since 1998 , over 30 million China,
Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European
executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts:
China started second phase credit tightening, rate
hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with
structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from 5.6- 12.5 %, Oct.
28, 2004, accurately predicted by Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in
Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital
market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley
Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon
Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global
conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,
demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high
and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products
resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying
rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. CPI
inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to
increasing business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will
facing soaring inflation from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking
holiday demand season . Despite China Peoples Bank raised
deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement,
aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with
Sept. money supply growth at
13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only 10 %, asset prices, inflation
followed soaring oil price to 55, all time high metal prices coastal cities Beijin,
Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national housing prices up
14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou . retail sale up
13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium,
long term loan up 25.4 %, inflation up 4 % . China economy is
far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and
GDP below 8 % and call the need for further interest
rate hike and raise deposit reserve ratio to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter
holiday peak season .
As. China Peoples bank issue
100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated
Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation. S. soaring China,
US demand pushing China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices
recent rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's 915 statement
over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr.
Huang on this website and already retreat to 1200)) market is over, continue bear
market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150-
1300, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound 20 %.
, This supply side tightening
are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating,
as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and
implement structural rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr.
Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing,
construction materials, auto and retails demand . to cool off soaring
housing and metals prices, and serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation,
communication bottleneck.
China benefited by lower food price, Nov CPI drop to 2.8 % from Oct.
5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas ( oil prices will rebound 50 and
feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation in the winter heating demand.
China hopefully achieve soft landing
in the second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth
below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts, CEO ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global
finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and
www.osawh.com
website warning
global
central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global
conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,
excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal
constructional materials prices to new high
and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products
due to US excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little,
too late , Despite US December WPI and CPI drop due to brief oil prices dip
to 40, (down 30 % from 55)US still facing 3.3 % CPI and 4.3 % WPI
inflation. soaring consumer, business demand in the final quarter 2004 will
further drive oil prices back to 50 in January cold winter and rebound
to 55 in March gasoline demand, prices pick US will facing inflation soared to 5 %
spring peaking
holiday demand season .
US, global economists,
market analysts over optimistic over the business and
consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 and
continue into first quarter 2005 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job
creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday
season, as December already plunged to 150,000, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 46 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, NAPM and consumer confidence peaking out in the second quarter
and final quarter at 66 driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, May , Oct. and extending into the first
half of 2005. US trade deficit soared to 60 billion due to
excessive demand for import and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes
well into 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer
confidence , business spending,
peaking out, brief economic leading indicators rebound after declined for 6 months
,business facing profit squeeze in second half 2004,
Dr. Huang accurate predicted US Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, and stock prices peaking out in the
Dec. 2003 ,and Oct 2004 job creation 337,000 and
retails sale peaking out Nov. 2004 did drop to 112,000 2 % and second quarter 2004
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation, any year end and January effect speculation will facing bear
market correction repeating 2000, as Intel, E-Bay , GM, Delta profit decline
drag
US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up most of its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last
quarter GDP
at 3 %) and followed by
stagflation this year with stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30-
50 % correction
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google
will plunged
from 185 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO
and PG and Gillette merger
to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss
made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US CPI at 3.3 % ,whole sale price up 4.3 % with business
spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 95 ISM at 66 are inflationary,
facing excessive inventory built up, oil
soared to 50 currently consolidate
in 44-50 due to mild winter, However cold winter ahead will drive heating oil, and oil price
traded 40- 50 gas to 8.0 and metals to new high this year will
drive up 20 sectors raw materials 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to
3.5
% in winter, as more rate
hikes are on its way to cool
off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.2- 4.8 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking,
Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset
prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared
to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum. He lectured Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month
ahead, investment opportunities in China
petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning for asset bubbles
in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended
invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion
from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the
summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite
March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate
is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious
bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing
bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares facing and correction 2004,
Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 50, and Intel
profit decline, over-optimistic
outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and IBM PC
sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and
Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to
speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil
price already rebound to 45 will retest 50 due to OPEC one million
production cut and winter peak demand, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP,
Apple holiday sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM
test 85.
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google
will
plunge from 199 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap
in post election bubble burst , repeating 2000. Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq 1750- 2100 ,
S&P 1060-1190, Taiwan index post election
bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000-
11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1350, Shenzhen 2750-
3150, Euro : 1.28- 1.35 , Yen 100-105, US, Asian and European stocks follow US
stocks rebound currently will gave up all this year gain
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks
( including IPO )facing
30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
5 Day Global
Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation 2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global
Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset
Allocation Strategy 2005 Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and
downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable
profits and market shares.
Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast Emerging Bull/Bear Markets Trend
Month Ahead
Tracking, simulate Global monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy, investors,
consumer confidence, technical charting impact on last 20 years daily global
financial market interest rate, currency, stock indices , commodity, oil, bond
futures, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, demand, listed stocks earning,
prices performances:
US Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately predicted
May 8, 15, 2004
to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and
www.osawh.com
website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer
demand pushing US Oil prices soared above 54, gold prices rebound from 360
to 425, metals prices reaching
23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory, facing series
rate hike in summer,US and global economy facing slowdown, profit squeez, stock markets facing bear market correction,
Dow consolidate 9500- 10300, Nasdaq 1650-1960 with stocks
down 30- 50 %from their peak
Greater China
Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately predicted Nov
, 2003 on China finance,
Capital Stock Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives China continue facing credit tightening, continue
well into 2005 stock
markets facing bear market 30- 50 % correction, Shanghai A test 1250-1300,
rebound to 1500 and consolidation.
Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control,
Asset
Prices, Bubble
Simulation, early warning :
Shanghai/Shenzhen
A/B/IPO Chinese Edition China small
medium
cap
ADR
mutual
fund/ commodity/ bond
Taiwan ADR, most actives
Chinese Edition
Hong
Kong Blue Chips H Red Chips
Chinese Edition
Asian
Economy/Capital Markets
Tracking, Forecasts Asian Financial Crisis
Industrial Finance
Japan
China
Korea
Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong India
Malaysia
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore Euro-events Asian Finance,
Capital stock market conferences
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
Asian stocks following US
stocks into consolidation
What is wrong in current global banking,
finance, insurance reform, integration, Why piled up trillion dollar bad loan?
Despite the light speed internet online banking, finance, securities, insurance trading,
risk management, investors does not know
the market forces behind prices movement, capital asset prices models and
risk measurement are based on probabilistic models fail to predict ahead future
price movement, can only following the crowd (analyst
speculation) resulted overheated industrial asset, equities, properties market
bubble bursts and crash in trillions dollar banking, finance investment loss and
nonperformance loan
What are the challenges, opportunities, risks in
China/global banking, finance globalization, reform, integrations?
As China integrated into global finance after WTO, China enjoy more than 55
billion dollar capital inflow annually from global finance and foreign reserve
of 460 billion, and continue opening it's manufacturing and financial markets
through QFII/QDII to foreign capitals already resulted overheated capital
investment with annual growth rate exceeds 32 % and consumer loan
demand and housing, steel, metals, auto telecommunication sectors. resulted additional loan
default credit risks ( bank NPL loan rate at 25 %) China and global capital
markets asset prices ( housing, auto, construction material, metal, steel),
simulation, early warning, risk regulation and supervision management is
the top issue on China/ global banking, securities, mutual fund , insurance reform
integration and globalization.
Soaring oil, metals prices and excessive business, manufacturing, consumer
demand leading to alarming inflation and
credit tightening, rate hikes to cool off the overheated economy. Global economy
facing inflationary slowdown, and stock markets facing bear markets 30-50 %
correction, and pileup additional bad loan and loan defaults/
_
Dr. Warren Huang's lecture
to Shanghai Finance, Economics University China finance for sustainable growth,
Oct. 25, 2003, Shanghai on
Strategic China/Global Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform
and to Euro-events Asian
Finance and Capital Markets summit conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003 on
Monetary policy impact on Asian economic outlook, capital
market opportunities and challenges, introducing OSA
simulation models.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Goal & Mission, Performance, risks oriented knowledge based Global Government, Banking,
Finance Reform OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis) strategic Decisions, tracking and simulating
government policy, daily global central banks monetary policy impact on global capital,
currency, stocks and bonds, commodities and financial futures derivatives,
consumer , business demand credit risks, default, early warning, banking,
finance merger/acquisitions, IPO, performances, NPL asset bubble, early
warning, recovery, asset securitization risks , providing the financial decision maker precise tools to
maximize capital investment return at minimum risks and early -warning to bubble burst,
corporate scandals
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thousands Structural, dynamic simulators tracking, simulate global infectious greed spread from US banking, finance market, auditors to corporate
CEO, CFO, stock option holders, investors, hiding behind the global financial market
bubbles in last 6 years US economic expansion, resulted 8 trillion dollar financial markets
, wealth loss, cutting into mutual fund, retirement fund, investors confidence economy and
dollar plunge.
As US and global banking, finance, corporate board members facing structural
reform, corporate CEO, CFO are required to sign off their company financial statement Aug.
14, 2002, More companies are forced to reform,
restructure,
reengineering and change management to cope and prevent scandal happen in the futures. as
General Electric already started restructure it's capital finance divisions,
and spreading into European, China, Taiwan, Japan, Asian banking, finance,
corporate reform meeting Sarbanes, Oxley act and latest revision in
corporate law, securities, banking industries regulations.
Reform alone will not be able to cope with the problem ahead, it
need strategic investment decision analysis and financial systems tracking,
simulaton , monitoring early warning for credit risks, corporate
governance scandals.
What US government, banking,
finance ,corporate CEO, CFO needed are corporate wide brainstorming review the root causes, onset, recovery
and early warning of credit defaults, nonperformance loan, defaults , corporate scandals,
and build up early warning system monitoring corporate operations.
Global Strategic
Banking, Finance Reform, Risk management
A.
Proactive NPL
Loan early warning, recovery for debt reform,
The root causes,
onset, recovery, early warning of global debt, equities, properties
nonperformance loan and asset securitization risk management
B. Proactive
Banking Finance reform, restructuring, strategic Investment Banking
:pre/post merger/acquisition, IPO performance tracking, profit optimization,
Basel II investment risks early warning strategic investment banking
C.
Banking, finance corporate governance reform,
financial accounting systems simulation, internal, external auditing tracking,
corporate scandals early warning, strategic risks change management,
D. Global Economy, Capital Markets Asset Prices
Simulation, Strategic Wealth Management,
Asset allocation, Portfolio Selection for global
equities, debt, currency, commodity, hedging fund
E.Global banking, finance
Basel II market, credit, operational, interest rate risk early warning,
simulation, forecasts maximize risk adjusted return
E.
Consumer and Business loan demand, credit default risk simulation,
early warning
G
Global forex futures operations simulation forecasts:
Interest rate spread, trade balance impact on daily
RMB , global currencies futures prices market forces forecast
H. Strategic Retail Banking customer value , profit creation,
marketing, competitive pricing OSA maximize profit, market shares
Value Chain Profit
Strategy:
I. Global Strategic Investment Banking ( M/A, IPO) Performance Optimization
J
.Global
Banking/finance CEO, CFO / Executives EMBA Breakthrough
Leaderships and Strategic
Investment/ Supply Chain , logistics, Marketing, Competitive
Pricing Change Management , Decision
Analysis Training for sustainable profits workshops CEO, CFO, executives on the job
decision analysis training and OSA risk management teams
Only cost, quality, market shares, risks as goal, mission, performances oriented, corporate
strategic, execution OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis )teams, develop, implement OSA
information knowledge based strategic decision support, providing pre-warning to
demand, prices, corporate earning pre-warning and scandals
Application of
Strategic Merger/Acquisitions, IPO, Restructuring, Reengineering and Operations Improvement
and pre-warning for scandals
Simulate day to day
global central bankers money supply, Asian financial crisis impact on
enterprises industrial trend (operating margin, profitability, pre-merger/ acquisition
analysis and post merger IPO, performance, stock prices. Restructuring, Reengineering and
process plant Operations Improvement computer control
Global Capital Market Asset Prices , Bubble Simulation, Basel II Market, Credit,
Operational, interest rate risks control
Global Strategic Alliance OSA upgrade technical and management strategic
decisions by thousands
structural, dynamic
20 yrs
daily global market tracking Capital Market
Banking
e-Business
e-Government
Monetary Policy
Asset Bubble Biotech/Healthcare
EMBA/CEO Basel
II Risk control
Competitive Pricing Strategy
Business
Process
Outsourcing
Strategic Alliance OSA
Strategic
Sourcing Strategic
E-Procurement Supply
chain optimization Strategic
Marketing Management
Integrated
Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM /Logistics
4PL Logistics
Integration Simulation retail
CRM optimization
US Economy inflation control, Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Bubble Simulation,Forecasts early warning :
Beat
Todays Markets Interest
rate/bond
stock
indice future Forex Currency futures
US hot stocks
,
Global
ADR
US
banks-finance
Oil, Gas Price
Info-100
Silicon -100
Weekend
Edition IPO
pricing
profit early warning
Commodity
Futures Oil/energy futures
Gold/metal
futures
Housing Bubble Basel
II credit risks
market risks
operational risks control
Knowledge Management
Asian
Economy/Capital Markets
Asian Financial Crisis Japan
China
Korea
Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong India
Malaysia
China Economy Macroeconomic
Control, Capital
Markets early warning forecasts
Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control,
Asset
Prices, Bubble
Simulation, early warning :
Shanghai/Shenzhen
A/B/IPO China small
cap China
ADR China mutual
fund/ commodity/ bond Hong
Kong H Red Chips
NPL
Asset Management
QFII/QDII strategy
Supply Chain Logistics
Housing Bubble
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical
upstream/downstream profit workshops
(
Beijin workshop)
Strategic
Wealth
Management
Value Investing
Asset Prices bubbles
Dynamic
Asset allocation
interest rate/bond yield Beat stock
indice future
Beat Forex Currency
Commodity
Futures Oil/energy futures
Gold/metal
futures Beat Global ADR Market
Risks Hedging Strategy
Venture Capital Risks control
Structured
Financial Engineering
Asset securitization
Syndicated
Loan
Basel
II Risk control
Strategic Investment Banking: strategic IPO,
pre/post
merger/acquisition performance
e-Personal Life planning Strategy Intelligent Knowledge Management
Strategic e-commerce Value
Chain Optimization
Adaptive enterprises Change Management
Basel
II Risk control
Economic Systems Simulation:
Monetary
macroeconomic policy Industrial finance Industrial
Economy
Regional Economy
Investment banking,
Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics
Government, Business Process Simulation: Globalization Strategy
e-Gov reform strategy
Banking/Finance
Reform Enterprise Reform
e-Biz
Strategy
OSA
models
Process
Improvement
Business Process Optimization
Global
Strategic Solution Consulting Corporate Governance
Global Crisis OSA
Risk Management Basel
II Risk control
Adaptives
e-Learning-Education
Breakthrough
leadership/strategy CEO workshop
Breakthrough
Venture capital strategy CEO workshop
Rose vegetable Garden
Commodity futures
WTO, import/export pricing
Feedback
Annual Memberships Strategic Out-Sourcing
Centers Human resources OSA teamswa
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive
decision tools--
Predicted
3 months ahead last
20 years global currency,energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing,
2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately
predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this
website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in
May 2004
job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second
quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate
hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30-
50 % correction
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by
1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead
to some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at
16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation
retreat from May ( benefited by oil, commodities prices down 15 % ).
However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin,
Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up
28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 %
target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994,
soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks bull market is over, entering bear
market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound.
, This supply side tightening
are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating,
will follow US rate hike in Aug implement structural rate hikes
to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto
and retails achieve soft landing Apr. 2005,
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
www.osawh.com
website and thousands workshops
warning US, global analysts over optimistic over the business and
consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, job
creation , under- estimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 45 trillion dollar housing, equities
wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as
predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March and Aug. 2004 US trade deficit soared
to 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May,
Aug. 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged
to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending, peaking out, facing
squeeze in second half 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter,
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in July, with business spending up 10 %, consumer
confidence above 106 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing inventory built up, oil,
soared to 50 new high, will
drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate
hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. (
despite July wholesale price only up 0.1 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices
tracking, forecasts:
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
consolidation.
He lectures Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China
finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and
to
China economists meeting Fudan University,
Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month ahead, investment
opportunities in China
petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR ,
Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning
for asset bubbles in oil,
commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested
in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive
China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will
lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise
bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay
above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to
2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US
economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs
can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and inflation outlook
may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose
380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble
repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July
facing and correction 2004,
Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq 1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post
election bubble burst from 7200 to 5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening
continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen
105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004
will gave up all this year gain
Profile/Founder
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer
of
two master hands controlling Global economic cycles
and Capital Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Market Forces, Bubble Simulation, early warning
and
Global
Strategic Knowledge Based
Strategic Government, Business Process Demand
Forecasts OSA Optimization Operations Simulation
Analysis OSA
over 30 years
pioneering 30
years development,
implementation of government, banking, finance Information Knowledge
based customized in-house global leadership breakthrough in strategic proactive
investment, marketing, supply chain logistics , combining the best of West
(US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bechtel, Fluor, Bailey network
controls headquarters working experience) and East (China , Taiwan, Japan,
Korea, ASEAN state , SME, banking, finance consulting, 30 million CEO/CFO,
executives investors training workshops ) workshops . He conducted teaching,
research at Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai University in Taiwan and China's Peking,
Tsinghua, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechian, Dalian, Hua-zhon Science & Tech , Chunqing
Universities on Chemical Engineering Process Design, Simulation, Control,Economic Management, MIS, EMBA/CFA, Financial Engineering integrating theory
into practice providing dynamic tracking global economics
market forces,
manufacturing, business process, information technology, and people information knowledge management systems strategic decision analysis simulation, forecasting integration, supporting CEO breakthrough in global leaderships and
proactive, reactive strategic
investment,
developed, implemented thousands structural, dynamic strategic
investment, supply chain competitive pricing simulators for global strategic
solution to tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on
macro-economics, growth, financial economic interest rate, currency, stock,
bond, commodity prices, oils and IT upstream/downstream 20
industrial sectors 5000 raw materials costs demand, products prices forecasts, e-commerce daily corporate/plant,
business, technical process systems innovation, operations improvement simulation, procedure review, upgrade millions global CEO,
CFO, senior executives
decision analysis training support in reform, restructuring, reengineering, investment,
venture capital merger/acquisition performance and supporting three pillars of
Basel II requirement credit, market,
operational risk analysis, control by tracking, simulating financial accounting
systems, early warning for corporate scandals, minimize risks capitals ,
in regulation, transparency supply chain logistics, process plant operations
cost reduction, market shares , global strategic alliance and strategic
business process sourcing/outsourcing strategy, without job cuts in one year OSA
program and financial accounting tracking for
internal/external auditing in corporate
scandals early warning market economy market forces demand, prices
mechanism OSA/
forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
He pioneered and patented " Improve Process by OSA ", May 1980 ,Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon
Processing and
20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon
Processing,
advanced control-information system
handbook 1991-2003
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html circulation to 80 countries
1600 multinationals , lectured to US Steel, Westinghouse global technology
productivity management conference, American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond
Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo,
Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers
conferences published thousands Chinese articles as columnist on daily economic,
finance, industrial economic newspapers , weekly, monthly economic,
finance, investment, trade journals 300,000 import/exporters 100
countries currencies, export pricing in Taiwan, China.
He
directed hundreds cost, quality,
profit, market share as goal, mission, performance oriented cross-functional
government, banking, finance, enterprises reform strategic, execution OSA teams(
SBU) development, implementing, tracking and optimize the performance, achieve
sustainable profit growth during financial crisis making their corporate
dream come true.
He has been editor/columnist and consultant for macro/financial economic
industrial finance, investment forum, energy, information technology, global
strategic management for Taiwan government, banking, finance, industrial,
importer/exporter trade, investment journal, Central, Economic, Commercial Times,
Industrial Economic daily newspapers and China Economic, Financial Times,
Shanghai, China, Shenzhen, Wuhan Securities daily newspapers, wrote
thousands articles on reform, change management,
investment risk management for US, Taiwan, China government economic, finance, banking,
securities, industrials, journal
weekly economic, finance investment journal, daily newspapers
and Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters weekly trade journals.
Millions global central banks, government, banking, finance,
enterprises, CEO, CFO, executives visited www.osawh.com website since July 1998 (Partial lists)
==========================================================================================
Global central banks,
government agency:
FRB, ECB, China Peoples banks, State department, IMF, World Bank, UN, OCED,US Dept of energy, NASA
, Center of Disease Control, State and cities government, Taiwan Ministry of
Economic Affairs, Finance, Education, Taipei, Kaoshiung cities , Academy of
Science, Information Technology research Institute)
Global Banking, finance, insurance:
JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Merrial Lynch, Goldman Sach, State Street,
Fidelity, Bank of
America, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, Prudential, ManuLife, Cathy Life ,CNA, J Hancock , Lehman, Bloomberg,
Dow Jones. Reuter, Wall Street Journal, Business Week
Corporate :
McKinsey, Ernest Young, KPMG, IBM, HP, Compaq, NEC, CISCO, Intel, AMD, Nokia, Taiwan
Semiconductors, UMC, Honhai, Motorola, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Aramco, Dupont, Dow, ORCL,
Boeing, GM, BMW, Honda, Samsung, Ford), Merck, Amgen, Johnson, Celera, Weth)
Academic/Education:
Northwestern, Michigan, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, MIT, Princeton, UC Berkeley,
NYU, George Washington, Rutgers, UCSF, UCSD,
UPensilvania, Columbia, Chicago, Cornell, Cambridge, London) and city,
state family education( K12) from 70 countries
=
Strategic M/A Out
sourcing training Center Organizational
Planning and Execution
Dr. Warren Huang be served as OSA consultant to setup and running this joint University-Industry government, finance, banking, corporate reform, research, training and promotion center. Providing all the necessary OSA team management, development and implementation of OSA supported e- distributed learning on the job training management and methods:
He will be responsible for the training and hiring of center staff and the development of information knowledge base and OSA simulator for online government, business, banking, finance e-commerce, e-business decision support applications:
Dr. Huang will conduct
one semester e-distributed learning courses for entry and senior staff (or
hire students in Economic management, chemical engineering, high tech, OSA
supported corporate restructuring, reengineering, operations improvement in the university
in Shanghai, or Beijing, Taipei, Hong Kong , US, global organizing OSA
teams among the senior economics, finance, students to develop all the necessary
information knowledge base from Internet and selecting top students as potential centers
staff ( or training for your entry level financial staff and university/enterprises reform
application analysts )to continue OSA information knowledge simulators development,
implementation.
Dr. Huang's Lecture fee will be paid by the center sponsor at the rate of regular
consultation fee, (it will be quickly paid back by the information knowledge base and
simulators application, and benefits generated out of the applications
Monetary Policy on inflation, GNP and economic indicators for sustainable growth and
asset price stability)
OSA simulation
macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply
growth, exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Nasdaq index), Interest rate,
exchange rate
Wealth Effect = F(
money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index,
housing prices)
References:
Dr. Warren Huang has
been invited to speak to 100 international chemicals engineering, productivity
management conference and following top 30 global financial crisis
and risk management conferences in 1998-2003
