Asset Prices Bubble, The Causes and Impact Proactive Structural Simulation:  OSA Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macroeconomic Systemic Risks /Business Cycles, Financial Crisis, Asset Prices Bubble Bursts Modeling Strategic Dynamic Asset Allocation, Early-Warning Risks Control
OSA-- Country Economics, Business Cycle boom and bust, asset bubble burst risks simulation
Goal: OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's 32 years experiences in the develop, implement of Dynamic tracking simulation of last 25 years US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on stocks, properties prices wealth effect impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances, sectors demand, prices, bubble bursts , to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices and  overheated sectors, products demand resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, cut the demand , leading to excessive inventory and price slump, bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.
Dr. Huang lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to  
Welcome  to the World of Asset Prices Models Forecast for Global  Economic, Financial, Banking Crisis, Bubble Burst Recovery, Strategic Base II Market, Credit, Operational, interest rate, business cycles, liquidity Risks ,Early-Warning , Control, Profit Optimization

Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic quantitative models simulators tracking, forecasts controlling global macro economy, business cycles and daily  capital market interest rates, currency, asset prices Dr. Warren Huang has develop, implemented thousands structural, dynamic causes and effect, response simulators tracking, simulate, forecast, accurately predicted  months ahead monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economic, business cycles,  the root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global macroeconomic control, daily capital market asset prices,  asset allocation, interest rates, business cycles, liquidity, market, credit, operational risk control, avoided trillion dollar market loss, offered thousands investment strategy and risk management for thousands US, Taiwan, China, Asian central banks, banking, securities, SOE, SME companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, trade, risks managers and 30 million China, Taiwan, US 15 cities  TV, radio banking, finance, executives, investors tracking daily stocks , currency, bond commodities prices , investment strategy, risks control,  invited to speak to ECB, FRB, UK, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Asian 24 global central banks governors, IMF, BIS  financial risks management, econometric, wealth management conferences to speak on "Asset Prices Simulation, forecasts, early warning  for last 20 years Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery,  economic, business cycles, interest, currency , liquidity , Market, Credit, Operational Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble   since 1998, published 20 English articles on US Oils & Gas Journals and US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2003 , for 1600 multinationals from  78 countries, tracking ,simulate, forecast market forces demand, prices mechanism, market, credit, operational risks for oil, petrochemicals, upstream/downstream, end users 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products : www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html , and thousands Chinese articles for China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, economic, finance, trade journals supporting  15 cities, TV, radio station banking, finance, fund managers, investors  global asset allocation,  risks and profit control optimization
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency,energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004,
 China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at 16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  oil, commodities prices down 15 % ). However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up 28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994 , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, will follow US rate hike in Aug implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, China and Global bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.  He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, oil, commodities rebound to recent high, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. 
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy. 
 Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain     
 He also accurately predicted on China Peoples banks governors sponsored Global central banks governors policy conference in Macoa, May 15, 1999 that  US Fed will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 25 % correction, and  internet stock with 50 % corrections He warned again in Dec 6, 1999 0n www.sina.com and his websote www.osawn.com that  US high tech facoing bubble bursts, internet, biotech IPO, merger/acquisitions stocks prices will plunge 50-90 %,  Dow Jones will test 9000, Nasdaq plunge from 5100 to test 1500, Henseng test 9000, Nikkei test 10,000, Taiwan index down to  0500. All demonstrated by his simulation models s on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and   NASD ,  Business, government strategy conference during April and May, June  1999.  Washington DC
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 25 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary supply, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent, and investment, expansion in high tech, resulted mounting debt and excessive inventory And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis,2000 US bubble burst.   all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth