osawh OSA Proactive Structural Dynamic Financial Modeling, Risks Valuation by
Global
Finance, Capital Markets,
Macroeconomic
Integration Proactive
Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping
with policy tri-lemma problem in global capital markets growth without asset
bubbles
Proactive Recession Strategy
Institutional Investors
Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance
CPA/CFA/CFO training
Global
Strategic Management Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master
hands controlling global
macro
economy
, finance, capital market
prices
for QFII/QDII managers,
private, institutional investors investment
workshops
achieve sustainable profit
growth
OSA
www.osawh.com
Proactive Structural Simulation of Global Macroeconomics, Finance, Capital Markets Strategic Research
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented Investment Strategy and Risks Management
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession , oil above 100, despite Fed rate cuts
Dr. Warren Huang who was
risk management panelist
and original planned full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China
Fund World 2008
conference, offer
proactive structural China/global
asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, US subprime meltdown, recession impact on
global stock indices, commodities, energy indexing ETF Optimal multiclass
asset 1xx/xx long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy by catching
ahead the emerging bull/bear market trend
Dr. Warren Huang
accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
that US housing price slump
continue into summer 2008, drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear
market correction, widening credit derivative swap bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil
above 100, Dow Jones index plunge to 11500, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking, financial and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed rate
cuts
He also warned top QFII
management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering
Conference that China overheated housing,
stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit
tightening to remove excessive liquidity ,housing, stock markets
follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai
A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008
Dr. Warren Huang
who
pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US
Oil & Gas Journal 1983,
circulated million copies to 80 countries,
accurately predicted oil price from 9 to
110
¡@. He
predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational
oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices
soared to 80 , due to
increasing demand from China/US
global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation,
dragged by US
housing market weakness, oil price will
be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in
gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals
energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to
95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer, business demand
and oil price to 90-
115 , supporting spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through
economic stimulus, tax cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International
Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated
housing, stock market
wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit
tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
3500- 4000 till summer 2008
Currency trading volumes have soared
to $3.2 trillion a day over the past three years, data from the
Bank for International Settlements, released Tuesday, showed. That marks a
71% jump in core currencies products from the BIS¡¦s previous survey in 2004
¡X the biggest leap ever in the benchmark report¡¦s 18-year history
Hedge funds, cross-border investors, technical traders and retail accounts
have all contributed to the soaring levels of activity,
with the U.K. dominating flows, the Basel-based central bank for central
banks reported. Trading in over-the-counter products such as foreign
exchange options, cross-currency swaps and interest rate derivatives has
also soared 71% over the past three years, with average daily
volumes hitting $2.1 trillion.
All of these data are very closely watched by banks and others in the
currencies market, as they help dealers and trading systems to measure their
market share. They also help market participants to figure out what
size of transactions could push exchange rates around.
Of the $3.2 trillion-a-day flow in basic products ¡X spot, foreign exchange
swaps, and forwards ¡X swaps trading volumes have grown particularly
quickly, up 82% since 2004 to $1.7 trillion a day. Spot trading has
grown 62% to $1 trillion a day.
Industry insiders said the BIS figure of $3.2 trillion, while bigger than
many had expected, could underestimate the true size of the industry.
Clients such as hedge funds can now trade directly with each other, and this
kind of flow isn¡¦t captured by the report. Trading system Hotspot FX, which
is owned by Knight Capital Group, said its client-to-client flows
grew from under 2% of its total in April 2004, to 42% in April 2007.
| Global Foreign-Exchange Market Turnover (1) | ||||||
| Daily averages in April, in billions of U.S. dollars | ||||||
| Instrument | 1992 | 1995 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 |
| Spot transactions | 394 | 494 | 568 | 386 | 621 | 1,005 |
| Outright forwards | 58 | 97 | 128 | 130 | 208 | 362 |
| Foreign exchange swaps | 324 | 546 | 734 | 656 | 944 | 1,714 |
| Estimated gaps in reporting | 43 | 53 | 61 | 28 | 107 | 129 |
| Total ¡§traditional¡¨ turnover | 820 | 1,190 | 1,490 | 1,200 | 1,880 | 3,210 |
| Turnover at April 2007 exchange rates (2) | 880 | 1,150 | 1,650 | 1,420 | 1,950 | 3,210 |
| (1) Adjusted for local and cross-border double-counting. | ||||||
| (2) Non-US dollar legs of foreign currency transactions were converted into original currency amounts at average exchange rates for April of each survey year and then reconverted into US dollar amounts at average April 2007 exchange rates. | ||||||
| Source: Bank for International Settlements | ||||||
Rate hikes, Oil prices Impact on 2007 -08 Asian/China/US /Global
Economy, financial, stocks markets
Asia QFII/QDII Optimal Asset Allocation, Portfolio Selection Strategic Wealth
Management Basel II Market, Credit, Operational, interest rate Risks hedging
, early warning
Dr. Warren Huang 30 years
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic
Global
Economic Policy Systems Simulation:
hedging
Monetary
macroeconomic policy
Financial
Economics Industrial
Economy
Regional Economy Investment
banking,
Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Global Trade Economics
Breakthrough Innovation in proactive, structural Global Capital Market
Equities Market Research Prices Valuation Models
Dr. Warren Huang CV
Dr. Warren Huang English
publications, speeches
He will be speaking to International Symposium of Financial
Engineering and Risk Management Conference ,
June 12, 2007 Peking University, Beijing and
2007 Proactive global
strategic mutual fund and wealth management investment strategy and
risks early warning
He
will be the full day master class workshop leader on Emerging
Opportunities and Risks in Strategic China Fund and
Wealth Management for Terrapinns 2007 China Fund and Wealth Management Conference, Oct 2007 at Pudong
Shangri-La Hotel,
Dr.
Warren Huang predicted to Asian Business Forum's
Beijin workshop to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril
Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational
oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and Nov.
2005, that Green and Bernanke underestimate
wealth effect resulted asset bubbles impact on oil prices and inflation and
oil prices will be soar to 69
in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January
2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006, US,
CPI to 4.3 % in summer will raise rates
throughout summer 2006., Fed fund rate will go to
5.5 % , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85
% gasoline futures will to 265, stocks,, bond facing
correction give up all2005- 2006 gain in summer 2006. Dow
Jones, 10000- 11700, Nasdaq 2100- 2290,
S&P 1150-1290
Current oil price plunged 20 % reflecting China, US seasonal slowdown
and rate hike pause lead to US dollar and stocks rally to new high
(dollar to 119 Yen and Dow Jones to 11940 ) is
excessive, over-optimistic over oil prices and inflation and rate outlook.
stock market rally generated wealth effect will push oil prices to 70 again
and inflation higher in winter season and fueling housing market momentum
ahead. Dow Jones must retest 11000, NASDAQ retest 2200, SP 1250, soaring US
trade deficit will be maintain 65- 71 billion drag US dollar lower ( 110- 115
and 1.28- 1.32) BY YEAR END
Thousands
integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary
causes and effects model simulators
tracking , forecasts accurately months ahead last 20 years global
crisis, bull/bear markets
special one time offer contact
wh3928@yahoo.com )
First time shown on this website the most reliable global central banks
monetary policy, daily open market operations impact on stock indices,
currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA
Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy
impact on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow
Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo
Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German
DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on
Henseng index have
E. US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO
exchange rate
F. US and Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on
YEN exchange rate
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision
simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic,
financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset ( interest
rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives )
prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and
billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,
speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market
momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ),
presented to 24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors,
financial risks and wealth management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts
conferences and on this website
www.osawh.com tracking daily results ,
visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance,
corporate executives universities since 1998.
China/Asia
economy, capital market asset prices simulation, bubbles early warning, risk
control By Dr. Warren Huang,
Global leader and pioneer in Global capital markets asset prices simulation,
asset allocation, portfolio management OSA
wh3928@yahoo.com USA
Don't Miss This Opportunities
Breakthrough
Innovation in Global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,
economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by
thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20
years emerging global finance, capital stock, oil, gas, commodities futures
market bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global
Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate
profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005
forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin pre-conference workshop or his post
conference in-house workshop, get first hand information and OSA proactive
models simulation methodology and forecasts, will use
www.osawh.com and
www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price
forecast :
www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html and
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html
materials as lectures contents
*( presented to 24 global central banks,
financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks,
banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78
countries and
lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou,
Taipei, San Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers,
hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers,
risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published
thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers,
investment, economic, finance journals.
Goal and Mission
OSA inviting you to our Global/ China/ Asian Economy and Capital Market Asset
Prices Simulation, Bubbles Early warning, Asset allocation, portfolio
Investment strategy, Basel II Risk management in-house executives workshops,
supporting China/ Asian/global QFII/QDII optimal global asset allocation,
portfolio management strategy banking, finance, enterprises reform :
What is the impact of global oil, commodities price bubbles, China/US rate
hike on China/Asian/US /global export, economy, capital markets asset prices,
asset allocation value investment strategy?
These workshops will bring you millions global/China executives feedback
from thousands of our past workshops , forecasts the what, why of how , when
of market forces controlling last 20 years global/China economy, capital
market asset prices by Dr. Huang¡¦s pioneering two master hands.
Over 60 ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan QFII, multinationals( Citicorp, UBS,
BNP, ABN, Deutsch Bank, DBS, Bank of Singapore, Motorola, Acer, Texaco, AIG,
Ernest Young, Bearingpoint ) companies VP, executives contact for these
workshops since Nov. 5, 2003
Global Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubbles
Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2005 strategic investment/ Basel II risk
management lecture/workshops tours
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million ,
banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives
investors since 1983,
Taipei Dec.
4-6 , 2004 80
email
osawhh@citiz.net
,
wh3928@yahoo.com
for reservation
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management
==China stocks, bond,
commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning
workshops== , reserve
osawhh@citiz.net
===========================================================================
Proactive strategic investment banking simulation forecast for 2007 global macro -economy, finance, capital
market asset prices bubbles , early warning and strategic Hedging Risks
in-house workshop ( select the countries, subject of your interests )
A Monetary, Economic , fiscal Policy , WTO impact on Greater China /Asian/
Global Economic Recovery : GDP, Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI: China
Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore US, Western / E. Europe, Russia Japan,
Korea
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact on China/global
Capital Markets, Fund return , risks:
China Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore
US,
EMU EURO /
Eastern Europe, Russia
Japan, Korea
.
Inflation, Interest rates, government, corporate bond yield and fixed income
fund forecasts risk s early warning
. China
state enterprises reform privatization and IPO performance, stock pricing
strategy
¡PStrategic Corporate Governance,
supervision, financial systems monitoring , stock prices bubbles, early
warning
¡PBanking, finance reform, IPO, Securities, Banking, Insurance , regulation,
supervision Basel II risk early warning
. Causes, onset, recovery, early warning of
China/Asian financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets
currency, credit, market risk simulation, hedging, plant equipment
performance and syndicated loan, securitization
¡P Strategic Global/China QFII/DFII, for domestic and
foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets
listing pricing
¡P Equity fund capital markets: Shanghai,
Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng
, Blue chips, Red chips, H share,
Taiwan Japan, US, Russia, global indices futures,
Index fund ,
ETF ,
derivatives prices mechanism, Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. RMB pricing mechanism , major global
currency market futures, derivatives prices , forecasts, risk
hedging
.Global
biotech products, markets innovation, investors sentiment impact on
IPO, stock prices performances
. IT post bubble recovery,
housing, auto, steel bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks,
mutual fund performance
.Oils, metals commodity futures,
derivatives prices, earning, stock prices , mutual fund performance, hedging
risks.
¡P Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B listed stocks corporate
earning, stock prices, China fund, derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical,
fiber/textile corporate early, stocks prices, mutual fund performance,
investment strategy.
China
mutual fund and global mutual fund performance , investment and distribution
strategy.
China /US
/Global Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock prices,
investment strategy
¡P
Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed
Asset Securitization prices, defaults risks simulation
¡PChina/US
equities and properties housing bubble wealth effect investment
strategy simulation and risks management
.China
/US Debt, equities, money, energy, gold , index mutual fund performance,
asset allocation risk management
China and US , Global monetary, economic, fiscal policy,
WTO impact on Japan, Asian economy, capital markets prices Mutual
fund Optimal Asset Allocation strategy:
US China Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore, Malaysia, Japan Korea, Thailand,
India Eastern Europe/Russia EURO
==============================================================================================
Who should
attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO board
members, financial institution CEO, CFO, managing directors, asset, fund
managers, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers,
equities, currency, bond, commodity futures, trading managers, traders,
investors.
Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang¡¦s round trip San Francisco Air fare, hotel plus
lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion
dollar investment opportunities, while avoided chasing the markets resulted
trillion dollar loss.
Language: Mandarin or English
Reserve your in-house workshops osawhh@citiz.net
( Chinese) or
wh3928@yahoo.com ( English )
5-
day
Global Oil, Gold, Currency Futures, Option Prices
Simulation Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and
downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable
profits and market shares.
Dr.
Warren Huang has 30 years pioneering Wall Street research for US major
oils, Taiwan, China government, banking, securities, insurance, properties
companies, state , medium enterprises global investment ,supply chain
strategy, tracking monetary , economic, fiscal ,WTO policy impact on last 20
years global economy, financial, energy crisis and daily capital markets
asset prices, spend half time wrote thousands articles on daily newspaper,
investor journal in Taiwan tracking Taiwan, US, global stock markets listed
stocks since 1985 (index from 650 to 12800) and 300,000 Taiwan
importer/exporters 100 countries currency export quote strategy OSA, spend
half time in China, accurately predicted China 1994 macroeconomic control and
1996 soft-landing and current credit tightening and root causes, onset,
recovery Asian and global financial, currency, energy crisis and current high
tech bubble burst recovery.
He has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors ( China
Peoples Bank, US, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks) and financial risk
management, Shanghai world economic forum conferences; offered thousand
executives investment strategy workshops to million China, Taiwan, Hong Kong
government, banking, securities, insurance, properties cos CEO, CFO, money
managers and daily, weekly market commentary for China, Taiwan 15 cities (
Shanghai, Bejiin, Shenzhen, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) 30 million
TV, radio financial executives, VIP investors since 1994
He has been keynote speaker, offered full day workshops for IBC Asia, Asian
Business Forum and EURO-EVENTS conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, China
SINOPEC and World Economic Forum in Beijin, Shanghai,
Dr. Huang¡¦s 20 years global tracking record:,
always predicted 3-6 month ahead global financial ,
global stock indices,
currency, energy,
commodity futures and housing ,asset
bubble burst crisis, avoided trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
China experience
:He offered thousands lectures to 30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV,
radio 30 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national
securities news papers and thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide
banking, securities, insurance, properties CEO, manager, daily securities news
accurately predicted China macro-economic control, credit tightening ,
Shanghai A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96 and first rate cut, soft
landing, March 1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong financial crisis.
1997-1998. He accurately predicted on his website and Shanghai workshop March
2003 China A share rebound to 1650 and again in May warned Steel, auto,
housing market overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit tightening, raise
deposit ratio 1 % in Sept.2003 and 0.5 % again in Apr 2004
Tracking resulted witness by million global government , central
banks, banking, finance, insurance, corporate executives, academics visited
our
www.osawh.com
website for the strategic wealth management , asset allocation, risk
management
Goal and
Mission, performance oriented workshops tailored to your need,
Choose your own
country/industry/subjects for each 2 hour session
¡@
¡@
US Stocks plunge in correction to housing market slump, ECB hold interest rate cut, Dollar gain strength Oil prices , inflation worry continue
Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Stock market plunged 206, finally give up its recent gain on banking, finance, IT shares despite mounting write down and loss in mortgage loan default.
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 %
It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price, inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before housing price slump ends.
details on www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at 2:49 pma
I warned since last Sept on this blog that it is premature to speculated, merger any housing mortgage company, as housing price slump contine into summer 2008. I indicated CFC offer at 7 is overvalued,, it may
follow housing price plunged below 4.
It is premature too to announce that the worst of credit crisis is behind us. You may claim that he worst of sub-prime crisis is behind us,
But the housing price slump continue into summer, will spread into prime mortgage and credit cards, we may repeat Bear Stearn hedge fund
failure on betting on the wrong side of interest rate again, As I predicted 10 year bond yield will break 4 % Fed will swing into rate hike cycle to fight inflation soon.
facing 1980 double dip inflationary recession With slumping housing price and consumer confidence, soaring oil price and job cuts,
How can any one speculato on housing, banking issues declare credit crisis is over!
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
headed lower until housing price slump ended, rate cuts stopped, stock markets completed its bear market correction till summer 2008
CDS spread will continue widening in this uncertain situation in mortgage credit crisis.
details on www.osawh.com/macro.html and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund.htm
Market bull speculators using bond issuer upgrade and IBM shares buyback news to survive bear rally.
It discount 26 year record high PPI at 7.4 % and consumer confidence plunged to 75 ( into 60-80) recession
range predicted by me on this blog last Sept. Housing price plunged 8.9 % and continue to slide, despite
aggressive rate cuts, stimulus package.
investors forgot IBM share buy back at 100 in 2001, fail to stop stock price plunge to 80, it will repeat
again, It is premature to speculate any share buyback. This economic recession will follow housing slump for another 6 months.
We are facing tough inflationary recession, not just stagflation as I predicted last Sept on this blog
¡@