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macro  economy , finance, capital market prices for QFII/QDII managers, private, institutional investors  investment  workshops achieve sustainable profit growth
 
OSA  
 www.osawh.com  Proactive Structural Simulation of  Global Macroeconomics, Finance, Capital Markets Strategic  Research  Goal, Mission, Performance oriented   Investment Strategy and  Risks Management

Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market recession , oil above 100, despite Fed  rate cuts

Dr. Warren Huang who was risk management panelist and  original planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China
Fund World  2008
 conference, offer proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, US subprime meltdown, recession impact on global stock indices, commodities, energy indexing ETF Optimal multiclass asset 1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset  allocation  strate
gy  by 
catching ahead the emerging bull/bear market trend
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump
continue into summer 2008, drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market correction, widening credit derivative swap bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil above 100, Dow Jones index plunge to 11500, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking,  financial and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed  rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity ,housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

 Dr. Warren Huang
 who pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 110 ¡@. He predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin
to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to 95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer,  business demand and oil price to 90- 115 , supporting  spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

US Stocks plunge in correction to housing market slump, ECB  hold interest rate cut, Dollar gain strength  Oil prices  , inflation worry continue

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at  7:37 pm

Stock market plunged 206, finally give up its recent gain on banking, finance, IT shares despite mounting write down and loss in mortgage loan default.
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 %
It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price, inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before housing price slump ends.
details on www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html 

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at 2:49 pma

I warned since last Sept on this blog  that it is premature to speculated, merger any housing mortgage company, as housing price slump contine into summer 2008. I indicated CFC offer at 7 is overvalued,, it may
follow housing price plunged below 4.
It is premature too to announce that the worst of credit crisis is behind us. You may claim that he worst of sub-prime crisis is behind us,
But the housing price slump continue into summer, will spread into prime mortgage and credit cards, we may repeat Bear Stearn hedge fund
failure on betting on  the wrong side of interest rate again, As I predicted 10 year bond yield will break 4 % Fed will swing into rate hike cycle to fight inflation soon.
facing 1980 double dip inflationary recession With slumping housing price and consumer confidence, soaring oil price and job cuts,
How can any one speculato on housing, banking issues declare credit crisis is over!
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Latest Wall Street Journal Blog by Dr. Warren Huang
The typical bear market rally I have been warning on this blog since last Sept, that it give up all its gain in all its post rate cut rally and
headed lower until housing price slump ended, rate cuts stopped, stock markets completed its bear market correction till summer 2008
CDS spread will continue widening in this uncertain situation in mortgage credit crisis.
details on www.osawh.com/macro.html and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund.htm
Comment by Warren Huang ,Wall Street Journal -Market Beat Blog. March 19, 2008 at 7:55 pm

Market bull speculators using bond issuer upgrade and IBM shares buyback news to survive bear rally.
It discount 26 year record high PPI at 7.4 % and consumer confidence plunged to 75 ( into 60-80) recession
range predicted by me on this blog last Sept. Housing price plunged 8.9 % and continue to slide, despite
aggressive rate cuts, stimulus package.
investors forgot IBM share buy back at 100 in 2001, fail to stop stock price plunge to 80, it will repeat
again, It is premature to speculate any share buyback. This economic recession will follow housing slump for another 6 months.
We are facing tough inflationary recession, not just stagflation as I predicted last Sept on this blog
¡@

Comment by Warren Huang - February 26, 2008 at 7:22 pm
I warned on this blog last Sept and Jan this year that continued talk of aggressive rate cuts to fight recession,
ignoring soaring will push record oil, commodities price and inflation, drag dollar lower against EURO to 1.50- 1.59.
However, it is supported by soaring US inflation , 10 year bond yield ( will break 4 %) expecting Fed aggressive
rate hikes fighting inflation, following current rate cuts
details can be found on www.osawh.com/currency.html and www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
and www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - February 26, 2008 at 7:30 pm

Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. Sept. 26, 207
Turning Over Trillions, Daily

 by Tim Annett Katie Martin takes a tape measure to the foreign-exchange markets:

Currency trading volumes have soared to $3.2 trillion a day over the past three years, data from the Bank for International Settlements, released Tuesday, showed. That marks a 71% jump in core currencies products from the BIS¡¦s previous survey in 2004 ¡X the biggest leap ever in the benchmark report¡¦s 18-year history
Hedge funds, cross-border investors, technical traders and retail accounts have all contributed to the soaring levels of activity
, with the U.K. dominating flows, the Basel-based central bank for central banks reported. Trading in over-the-counter products such as foreign exchange options, cross-currency swaps and interest rate derivatives has also soared 71% over the past three years, with average daily volumes hitting $2.1 trillion.

All of these data are very closely watched by banks and others in the currencies market, as they help dealers and trading systems to measure their market share. They also help market participants to figure out what size of transactions could push exchange rates around.
Of the $3.2 trillion-a-day flow in basic products ¡X spot, foreign exchange swaps, and forwards ¡X swaps trading volumes have grown particularly quickly, up 82% since 2004 to $1.7 trillion a day. Spot trading has grown 62% to $1 trillion a day.
Industry insiders said the BIS figure of $3.2 trillion, while bigger than many had expected, could underestimate the true size of the industry. Clients such as hedge funds can now trade directly with each other, and this kind of flow isn¡¦t captured by the report. Trading system Hotspot FX, which is owned by Knight Capital Group, said its client-to-client flows grew from under 2% of its total in April 2004, to 42% in April 2007.

Global Foreign-Exchange Market Turnover (1)
Daily averages in April, in billions of U.S. dollars
Instrument 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Spot transactions 394 494 568 386 621 1,005
Outright forwards 58 97 128 130 208 362
Foreign exchange swaps 324 546 734 656 944 1,714
Estimated gaps in reporting 43 53 61 28 107 129
Total ¡§traditional¡¨ turnover 820 1,190 1,490 1,200 1,880 3,210
Turnover at April 2007 exchange rates (2) 880 1,150 1,650 1,420 1,950 3,210
(1) Adjusted for local and cross-border double-counting.
(2) Non-US dollar legs of foreign currency transactions were converted into original currency amounts at average exchange rates for April of each survey year and then reconverted into US dollar amounts at average April 2007 exchange rates.
Source: Bank for International Settlements
 
We will see how a single decision betting on the wrong side of interest rates, will
resulted 6.4 trillion dollars in FX and interest rate trading loss, and how US market is integreated into global market, It is unwise to talk about global financial markets decoupling.
US rate cuts directly integrating into global currency and interest rates as, global central banks already stop their rate hike giving up fighting soaring commodities, housing bubbles
related inflation. and these will directly impact on 100 trillion dollar daily global commodities, equities, derivatives market, which is impossible for any central banks to managed, as indicated by Greenspan. These integrated coupling relations have been quantify by my 20 years proactive structural models. details can be found on 
www.osawh.com
Comment by Warren Huang - September 25, 2007 at 2:11 pm

Rate hikes, Oil prices Impact on 2007 -08 Asian/China/US /Global Economy, financial, stocks markets
Asia QFII/QDII Optimal Asset Allocation, Portfolio Selection Strategic Wealth Management   Basel II Market, Credit, Operational, interest rate Risks hedging , early warning


 Dr. Warren Huang  30 years   Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Economic Policy  Systems Simulation:  hedging Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics 
Breakthrough Innovation in proactive, structural Global Capital Market Equities Market Research  Prices Valuation Models

Dr. Warren Huang CV   Dr. Warren Huang English publications, speeches
He will be speaking to International Symposium of Financial Engineering and Risk Management Conference ,  June 12, 2007 Peking University, Beijing and
2007 Proactive global strategic mutual fund and wealth management investment strategy and risks early warning

He  will be the full day master class workshop  leader  on Emerging Opportunities and Risks in Strategic China Fund and  Wealth Management for Terrapinns 2007 China Fund and Wealth Management Conference, Oct 2007 at Pudong
 Shangri-La Hotel,

 Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that Green and Bernanke underestimate wealth effect resulted asset bubbles impact on oil prices and  inflation and  oil prices will be soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,  US, CPI to 4.3 % in summer   will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265, stocks,, bond facing correction  give up all2005- 2006 gain in summer 2006. Dow Jones, 10000- 11700, Nasdaq 2100- 2290, S&P 1150-1290
Current oil price plunged 20 % reflecting  China, US seasonal slowdown and rate hike pause lead to US dollar and  stocks rally to new high
(dollar to 119 Yen and Dow Jones to 11940 ) is excessive, over-optimistic over oil prices and inflation and rate outlook.
stock market rally generated wealth effect will push oil prices to 70 again  and inflation higher in winter season and fueling housing market momentum ahead. Dow Jones must retest 11000, NASDAQ retest 2200, SP 1250, soaring US trade deficit will be maintain 65- 71 billion drag US dollar lower ( 110- 115 and 1.28- 1.32) BY YEAR END
Thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  causes and effects model simulators  tracking , forecasts accurately  months ahead last 20 years global crisis, bull/bear markets
special one time offer contact wh3928@yahoo.com )

First time  shown on this website the most reliable  global central banks monetary policy, daily  open market operations impact on stock indices, currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy impact on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have

E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate

The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998.
 
 China/Asia economy, capital market asset prices simulation, bubbles early warning, risk control   By  Dr. Warren Huang, Global leader and pioneer in Global capital markets asset prices simulation, asset allocation, portfolio management OSA      wh3928@yahoo.com    USA
Don't Miss This Opportunities
 
Breakthrough Innovation in Global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,  economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20
years  emerging global finance, capital  stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market  bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005  forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin  pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get  first hand information and OSA  proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will  use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  and www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html 
materials as lectures contents  *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks, banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries
and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, San Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.
Goal and Mission

OSA inviting you to our Global/ China/ Asian Economy and Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation, Bubbles Early warning, Asset allocation, portfolio Investment strategy, Basel II Risk management  in-house executives  workshops, supporting China/ Asian/global QFII/QDII  optimal global asset allocation, portfolio management strategy  banking, finance, enterprises reform :

 What  is the impact of global oil, commodities price bubbles, China/US rate hike on China/Asian/US /global export, economy, capital markets asset prices, asset allocation value  investment strategy?
These workshops will bring you millions global/China  executives  feedback  from thousands of our past workshops , forecasts the what, why  of how , when of  market forces controlling last 20 years global/China  economy, capital market asset prices  by Dr. Huang¡¦s pioneering two master hands.
Over 60 ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan QFII, multinationals( Citicorp, UBS, BNP,  ABN, Deutsch Bank, DBS, Bank of Singapore, Motorola, Acer, Texaco, AIG, Ernest Young, Bearingpoint ) companies VP, executives contact for these workshops since Nov. 5, 2003
 

Global Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2005 strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours 
 (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million , banking,  finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives  investors since 1983,
Taipei Dec. 4-6 ,  2004 80 email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management

 Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices Mechanism   Simulation /Forecasts through
  Dr. Huang's when you have two OSA master hands you are in good hands predicted on Euroevents Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that soaring oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 5 % resulted rate hike after Sept  2004, Global high tech stocks make 30- 50 % correction, Nasdaq testing 1750., Dow test 9750,
OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of last 20 years China/Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 China, Taiwan, Asian, US, ECB central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on  www.osawh.com  website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted to China 15 cities TV, radio investors and hundreds banking, securities companies CEO,CFO, fund managers in China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks bull markets  rally  March 2003 Dow Jones  from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, India, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%

US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation , underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March and Aug.  2004  US trade deficit soared to 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US , with business  spending up 15 %, consumer confidence above 106 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing inventory built up,  already dropping, oil,
soared to 56  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, soaring import and trade deficit drag dollar lower,  more rate hikes are on its way, with 10 yr bond yield up to 4.9 % in summer to cool off the economy. ( despite Jan wholesale price only up 0.2%
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:

Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.  
He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq  1650- 2100 , S&P 1000- 1190, Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.25- 1.313 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks    osawhh@sina.com

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 10 % profit in two days.  

======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss ¡§Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US¡¨ and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  Registration and Information: Please visit www.GCFF.net 

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net  
===========================================================================
Proactive strategic investment banking simulation forecast for 2007 global macro -economy, finance, capital market asset prices bubbles , early warning and strategic  Hedging Risks in-house workshop ( select the countries,  subject of your interests )


A  Monetary, Economic , fiscal Policy , WTO impact on Greater China /Asian/ Global Economic Recovery : GDP,  Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI:   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore  US,  Western / E. Europe,  Russia  Japan,  Korea   
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact  on China/global Capital Markets, Fund return , risks:
 China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore    US,  EMU EURO / Eastern Europe,  Russi Japan,  Korea   
. Inflation, Interest rates, government, corporate bond yield and fixed income fund  forecasts risk s early warning
.
 China state enterprises reform privatization and IPO performance, stock pricing strategy
¡PStrategic Corporate Governance, supervision, financial systems monitoring , stock prices bubbles, early warning

¡PBanking, finance reform, IPO,  Securities, Banking, Insurance , regulation, supervision Basel II risk early warning
. Causes, onset,  recovery, early warning of China/Asian financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets

  currency, credit, market risk simulation, hedging, plant equipment performance and syndicated loan, securitization
¡P Strategic Global/China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing pricing 
¡P Equity fund capital markets:  Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng , Blue chips, Red chips, H share, Taiwan  Japan, US, Russia,  global  indices futures,
Index fund  , ETF  , derivatives  prices mechanism,  Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. RMB pricing mechanism , major  global currency market  futures, derivatives prices , forecasts,
risk hedging
.Global biotech products, markets innovation, investors sentiment impact on IPO, stock prices performances

. IT  post bubble recovery,  housing, auto, steel  bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks, mutual fund performance
.Oils, metals commodity futures, derivatives  prices, earning, stock prices , mutual fund performance, hedging  risks.

¡P Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B  listed stocks  corporate earning, stock prices, China fund, derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical, fiber/textile corporate early, stocks prices, mutual fund performance, investment strategy.

 China mutual fund  and global  mutual fund performance , investment and distribution strategy
.

 China /US /Global Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock p
rices, investment strategy
¡P Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitization prices,  defaults risks simulation
¡PChina/US equities and properties housing bubble  wealth effect investment strategy simulation and risks management 
.China /US Debt, equities, money, energy, gold , index  mutual  fund performance, asset allocation risk management
China and US , Global monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on Japan, Asian economy, capital markets prices Mutual fund Optimal Asset  Allocation strategy:
US  China Hong Kong  Taiwan   Singapore, Malaysia, Japan   Korea,  Thailand,  India  Eastern Europe/Russia  EURO
==============================================================================================
Who should attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO  board members, financial institution CEO, CFO, managing directors, asset,  fund managers, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers, equities, currency, bond, commodity futures, trading managers, traders, investors.

Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang¡¦s round trip San Francisco Air fare, hotel plus lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion dollar investment opportunities, while avoided chasing the markets resulted trillion dollar loss.

Language:  Mandarin or English

 Reserve your  in-house workshops  osawhh@citiz.net   ( Chinese)    or wh3928@yahoo.com   ( English )


5- day Global Oil, Gold, Currency Futures, Option Prices Simulation Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.

Dr. Warren Huang  has 30 years pioneering  Wall Street research  for US major oils,  Taiwan, China government, banking, securities, insurance, properties companies, state , medium enterprises global investment ,supply chain strategy, tracking monetary , economic, fiscal ,WTO policy impact on last 20 years global economy, financial, energy crisis and  daily capital markets asset prices, spend half time wrote thousands articles on daily newspaper, investor journal in Taiwan tracking Taiwan, US, global stock markets listed stocks since 1985 (index from 650 to 12800) and  300,000 Taiwan importer/exporters 100 countries currency export quote strategy OSA, spend half time in China, accurately predicted China  1994 macroeconomic control and 1996 soft-landing and  current credit tightening and  root causes, onset, recovery Asian and global financial, currency, energy crisis and current high tech bubble burst  recovery.
He has been invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors ( China Peoples Bank, US, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks) and financial risk management, Shanghai world economic forum  conferences; offered thousand executives investment strategy workshops to million China, Taiwan, Hong Kong government, banking, securities, insurance, properties cos CEO, CFO, money managers and daily, weekly market commentary for  China, Taiwan 15 cities ( Shanghai, Bejiin, Shenzhen, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) 30 million  TV, radio  financial executives, VIP  investors since 1994
He has been keynote speaker, offered full day workshops for IBC Asia, Asian Business Forum and EURO-EVENTS conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, China SINOPEC and World Economic Forum in Beijin, Shanghai,

Dr. Huang¡¦s 20 years global tracking record:, always predicted 3-6 month ahead global financial , global stock indices, currency, energy, commodity futures and housing ,asset bubble burst crisis, avoided trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
China experience :He offered thousands lectures  to  30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV, radio 30 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national securities news papers and thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide banking, securities, insurance, properties CEO, manager, daily securities news accurately predicted China macro-economic control, credit tightening , Shanghai A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96 and first rate cut, soft landing, March 1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong financial crisis. 1997-1998. He accurately predicted on his website and Shanghai workshop March 2003 China A share rebound to 1650 and again in May warned Steel, auto, housing market overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit tightening, raise deposit ratio 1 % in Sept.2003 and 0.5 % again in Apr 2004
Tracking resulted witness by million global government , central banks, banking, finance, insurance,  corporate executives, academics visited our www.osawh.com  website  for the  strategic wealth management , asset allocation, risk management
Goal and Mission, performance oriented  workshops tailored to your need,
Choose your own country/industry/subjects  for  each 2 hour session

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