OSA 週末版   4 月日10  /2004
上週精確預測市場分析師對美國三月就業人數 增三十萬過份樂觀將引發通膨利率回升道瓊那斯達持續盤整探底
精確預測台股在選舉行情泡沫下破七千,選舉結束,利多出盡回歸基本面上週精確預測隨美股回檔下探 下週在6000- 6500 反復盤整
在大宗期貨原油價創二十年新高通膨隱憂下美元對日元 105, .歐盟 1.19- 1.25
生物科技信息產業創投基金為何泡沫破滅,一流公司也無法避免衰退虧損,傳統產業為何被淘汰? 如何避免重蹈覆轍在入世後掌握競爭優勢與永續經營利潤?
最新中美新股上市價格泡沫預警投資策略

國際經營策略操作模擬分析(OSA)誠邀您參加
 國際企業重組再造變革管理經營策略
OSA為貴公司精心設計之企业高層主管經營策略研修班
 建立目標任務效益導向跨部門高層主管策略及中層主管執行操作模擬分析小組領導力,推動市場經濟國際投資供應鍊經營策略發揮永續經營利潤
 主講人:國際企業經營策略操作模擬分析創辦人黃華南博士

不要錯過三千萬國內與外資法人機構主管大戶自營投資者已參加黃博士舉辦數千次QFII/QDII發表於2003年11月新加波上海北京一千位QFII/QDII主管及10月於上海財經大學,12月於復旦北京大學中國經濟年會投資採購避險策略研討會精確預測推鑑中國在美上市ADR香港H股及滬深A,B已暴漲九成警告:
  最新滬深 A, B 股熱門股高價股石化,金融汽車電力板塊投資避險策略
黃博士再度於去年底對上海千位外資及國內金融主管演講及本網頁警告在中國面臨汽車房地產過熱鋼材水泥擴充過快電力運輸不足能源原材料價格暴漲成本上揚人行信貸緊縮下1700上檔不多,不存在寧牛市條件,慎防1995年黃博士518在電台報紙事先警告金融銀行事先出脫散戶在股評炒作下慘遭套牢上指由1726暴跌至1652通膨入夏再隨油價大宗期貨價創19年新高有加息之憂美台韓日電子股回檔
及金融,商品期貨衍生工具市場操作價格機制模擬分析預測(OSA)及投資採購避險策略:兩隻如來佛掌從資金景氣消息及技術面事先掌握 國內與國際金融市場投資良機與風險研討會已有百萬國際央行投資銀行,國內與外資法人機構主管大戶自營投資者來訪黃博士www.osawh.com   網站
 近二十年國際 股市匯率股指金融期貨油價穀物黃金貴重期貨及 上市公司營運股價衍生工具價格追縱成果
具備兩隻如來佛掌使你掌握國際宏觀調控及每日資本市場價格投資避險策略穩操慎勝算高枕無憂

下週國際股市隨在美國通膨上揚消費信心向86探底房屋銷售及耐用財訂單滑落板半導体訂單出貨比滑落二月就業人數僅21000原油通膨入夏再隨油價大宗期貨價創19年新高有加息之憂美台韓日電子股回檔 隨道瓊10000- 10500盤整那斯達 1900- 2050盤整  (精確預測IBM在90 反彈)

A. Top  US Old Economy, Dow stocks NYSE Dow  Jones blue chip old economy stocks:  
 stock Name :    earning/ margin ,                                             near term trading range
IBM                              competition , pricing pressure               90-  95
Lucent                          no sight in profit turnaround                  3.5- 4.5
AT & T                         rate cutting due competition                    18- 22
TXN                             slowdown in sales profit growth              25-32
EMC                         no sight in profit turnaround                        10-14
BRCM                             slowdown in sales profit growth            35-45
MU                             slowdown in sales profit growth                15-18
AMD                        price cutting                                                 12-16
MRK                      lack new drug lead to growth slowdown       45- 54
BMY                        lack new drug lead to growth slowdown      25-35
 NOK                        slowdown in sales profit growth                   18-24
Nortel                   huge loss due to acquisition  oversupply         5- 9
Corning                 oversupply                                                      10- 14
JPM Chase Mahhaten      Enron  loan loss                                   35- 45 
Citigroup(C)  sufferd by Argentina loan loss                                44-  49-
MOT                              prices cutting                                          15- 20 
Wal-Mart                    competition, discount                                 55-  63
Int'l Paper (IP)  profit soared but low margin                               29- 35   
Alcoa( AA)        soared  but low margin                                        25-31  .
Home Depot(HD)  slowdown in consumer demand                      25-35
GE                            facing slowdown                                         27- 34
PG                            steady growth, facing slowdown                80- 96
HPQ                        merger integration  low margin                  20-25
Pfizer            lack new drug lead to growth slowdown              31- 40
GM                      price cutting                                                    40 -48
XOM ExxonMobil improved profit                                              38 -45-
MER                     pickup in trade                                              52 -57  

B. Top US New economy, Nasdaq IT and Biotech shares
stock Name :     earning/ margin ,                                             near term trading range
CSCO                       slow recovery                                                20- 25-
INTC                          high growth potential                                    25-35
AMAT                         slowdown growth potential                          20- 25
MSFT                   slowdown in sales profit growth                         22-30
SUNW(Sun Micro      slow recovery                                                 4- 6
JDSU Uniphase                   oversupply                                            3- 5
Yahoo                      moderate recovery                                         35- 45
CIEN                          over capacity                                                  4 - 6
ORCL                 slowdown in data base, sharp competition           11-15
PSFT                 slowdown in data base, sharp competition            15--29
SEBL                 slowdown in data base, sharp competition            5- 12
AAPL(Apple)   Slowdown in PC sales                                              19-25
DELL                    Slowdown in PC sales                                          28-35
JNPR                     over capacity, competition                                  20 -30   
AWE                      over capacity, competition                                  12-15
NXTL                         over capacity, competition                              25-30
CMCSK                over capacity, competition                                    28-32 

兩支如來佛掌掌握台灣 熱門股投資良機風險

代號股名 前景預警 股價範圍
2323中環  需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   25- 31
2475 華映  需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   15- 20
2337旺宏 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售    8- 12
3012廣輝  需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   18- 22
2834台企銀 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   13- 16
2801彰銀 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   20- 25
2409友達 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   45- 55
2885復華金控 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   14- 18
2330台積電 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   55- 70
2303聯電. 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售   25-36
2349徠德 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售  24- 27
2002中鋼 需求回升  30- 35
2883開發金 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 16- 20
3009奇美電 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 42--50
2303樺輝 需求回升 28- 32
6012金鼎證 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 12- 15
2823中壽 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 22- 26
2890建華金 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 16- 20
2888新光金 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 28- 32
2892第一金 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 26- 30
國泰金 需求回升競爭激烈殺價求售 60- 70

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    Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed will raise fund rate in June due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet , biotech stock with 50 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 10,000, Nasdaq test 3000, Henseng test 15000, Nikkei test 18,000, Taiwan index down to 8500 with   asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences.during April and May , June, Dec. 1999.
    These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
     USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico

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